BG777300ER
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:22 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:59 pm

I lived in Chantilly, VA and commuted out of that airport for 2 years. I can tell you that airport may have ups and downs in traffic, but it will never go away. Too much passenger traffic out of NoVA, no other international alternative in the DC area.

I have noticed lately that fares out of LAX, DEN to IAD are absolutely monstrous. This means demand is high. So I don't see United decreasing its hub there anytime soon. EWR can NOT replace IAD. EWR is already a mad house, lets not make it into a nightmare. There is a lot O/D traffic coming out of IAD to Europe, that simply can not be shifted to EWR. You can't force such a big market (DC) to have limited direct flight options to Europe from US carriers, and leave that entire market to all the European carriers serving IAD (Lufthansa, Air France, Austrian, British Airways, Virgin, Iberia (I think), Scandinavian, KLM, Brussels Air). United competes directly with just about each of these carriers since it serves routes in their respective countries. Also, the huge connection hub United gets thru Lufthansa in Frankfurt can not be undermined. I don't know exacts, but United must have at least 2-3 daily flights IAD-FRA, and many customers probably connect on from there.

Just like said above, I live and commute out of LAX now, IAD is an identical copy of LAX when it comes to United's presence there. Not going away.

I would like to see United expand IAD - South America. I realize UA has IAH, but I think if they purchase some thin route A321LRs to serve Colombia, Peru, Guatemala. DC has a huge Latin/South America population. Would love to see United compete with Avianca to Bogota with a 757 in the next 1-2 years. Pretty sure the smart people at Boeing have already though of this though and there is a reason it hasn't been done haha.
 
User avatar
Blimpie
Posts: 151
Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:48 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:50 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
dcaviation wrote:
GSP psgr - if it takes you 30-35 minutes to get to your gate at IAD, then maybe you should stick with your GSP airport.
IAD is not GSP, and they have little over 4 gates (unlike GSP), and from the parking garage to C gates it takes about 10 minutes. That's involving walk from daily garage, going through security and catching a train.
To get back from D gates to the car took even less time. People mover to main terminal, walk to garage, and I'm done.

If it took you 35 minutes then you are not doing something right. My mother who doesn't speak English, can get from check in desks to C/D gates in 10 minutes.


My experience with IAD:
Go catch the Aerotrain over to the A Gates (I think there's yet more effing escalators involved here):3-4 Minutes
Take escalators up from A Gate Aerotrain stop, walk to the end of the A mainline gates, take escalator up and then another down to the United Express gates: 4-5 minutes.


You missed the 5-10 minute wait on the platform to actually catch an Aerotrain. Also note to get to concourse A/B is a little faster than C/D gates :)

While I think 35 minutes is a bit long, I think 10 minutes is a bit fast.
Real men fly without wings!
 
DCAfan
Posts: 86
Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:22 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:04 pm

BobPatterson wrote:
Perhaps the Federal Government being involved in its ownership and operation (together with DCA), and the Congress also being involved, has something to do with it?

I don't mean to suggest that political involvement is nonexistent at many or most airports. But when the Feds/Congress are involved weird things often happen. City/regional governments tend to be and act more rReagan gnally, in my opinion.


There's little doubt that the owner of IAD is unhappy with the return on the $5 billion investment MWAA made there. So they exercised their proprietary rights and decided to grow DCA. I believe the confluence of much quieter aircraft just entering production, new air side capacity delivered by the modernization of ATC and some additional land side capacity created by the full redevelopment of Terminal A will permit the Reagan carriers to eventually optimize their domestic networks at DCA.
 
jagraham
Posts: 202
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:07 pm

Why hub DCA? It's not just the affluence - the DC area is the fourth largest CSA at a little over 9 million people. Generally, if there are 9 million people within a couple of hours of an airport, there will be enough of them flying to justify a hub (but don't count out the affluence AND the governments (foreigners pretty much have to fly to IAD to get to DC unless they want to connect somewhere else)).

Now for the new UA management to get the service right. And for MWAA to make IAD a better airport to transit and for airlines to use . .
 
uconn99
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:12 am

masseybrown wrote:
Another factor in the relative decline of IAD is the greater availability of bargain fares at DCA. About 4 years ago, I gave up using IAD in favor of DCA after the once-huge fare difference abated. UA's horrible service, sky-high fares, and beat-up aircraft (they're better now, but the damage is done) contributed.


I just got back from a trip to Connecticut and paid $33 each way after tax on United IAD-BDL-IAD on an A320. A route where United competes with Soutwest, American, and Jetblue so not all fares out of IAD are sky high. When I say compete I mean Washington metro to Hartford.
 
LH423
Posts: 5903
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 1999 6:27 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:18 pm

vin2basketball wrote:
I live in Boston and I know plenty of people that use BTV, particularly from Boston's northern suburbs


Are you sure you're not thinking of Manchester (MHT). It's about 2.5-3 hours by car from the Mass/NH border to BTV by way of I-93 and I-89. Then once you're there with the exception of flights to Detroit, Chicago and Porter Airlines' seasonal Toronto service (which is largely there to serve the Toronto POS), all flights from BTV are to destinations south of Massachusetts (driving for that long north and west in order to fly south is rather asinine). And aside from Allegiant's service to SFB (which ends in 3 weeks), all service to/from BTV is comparable to offerings from MHT (or BOS), which is 25-30 minutes from the state line. Without any data to substantiate it, I'm all but certain that BTV sees more passengers from Québec than it does Massachusetts. Again, I'm not saying you don't know anyone who has chosen to fly out of BTV, but they were either doing so because they tacked on a side trip in the mountains and not because BTV serves as a viable airport for Greater Boston.

LH423
« On ne voit bien qu'avec le cœur. L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux » Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
 
flybry
Posts: 71
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:26 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:48 pm

Smisek's HORRIBLE legacy continues to plague United with destructive decisions that will endure for years to come (wasn't there talk of possible criminal charges against him?!)... hopefully Oscar can continue to right the ship! :)
 
UAL777UK
Posts: 2242
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:16 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:39 pm

So its looking like DCA beats IAD hands down by the looks of things. How are those flights out of DCA to LHR, FRA, NRT, BRU, CDG etc doing? ;)
 
DaufuskieGuy
Posts: 250
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:35 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:21 pm

UAL777UK wrote:
So its looking like DCA beats IAD hands down by the looks of things. How are those flights out of DCA to LHR, FRA, NRT, BRU, CDG etc doing? ;)


right which is why we will always have IAD, UA or not. If not, I guess the model will be BOS, where there are only 2 overseas flights by US carriers (and one - AMS - is really on behalf of KLM). I prefer the model where there is a dominant US airline operating a sizable chunk of the international flights from a US airport. Keep in mind the "gateway" model for IAD would resemble BOS, what is good about that? I'm thinking that on O&D alone UA could only sustain LHR, FRA (but maybe give it all to LH?), NRT (again, give it to ANA?), and maybe PEK. So having IAD as an alternate hub to EWR (much like it has LAX to SFO) seems to be the preferable option for the flying public. And the US economy.
 
User avatar
thekorean
Posts: 1653
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:05 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:43 pm

Shut down DCA and develop the land in to Entertainment District. Let people use Baltimore, Manassas, and Dulles.
 
User avatar
United787
Posts: 2414
Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 12:20 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:36 pm

IAD has yet to see it's best days, they are coming. Just like JFK saw it's rebirth, so will IAD. DCA has limited growth potential and the metro region will continue to grow in the direction of IAD.

The Silver Line will surely help...although it won't be the cure. The biggest mistake, IMHO, was not running the Silver Line through Reston Town Center... being 1/2 mile south in the middle of the freeway goes against all new urbanist planning principals...
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13386
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:16 pm

United787 wrote:
IAD has yet to see it's best days, they are coming. Just like JFK saw it's rebirth, so will IAD. DCA has limited growth potential and the metro region will continue to grow in the direction of IAD.

The Silver Line will surely help...although it won't be the cure. The biggest mistake, IMHO, was not running the Silver Line through Reston Town Center... being 1/2 mile south in the middle of the freeway goes against all new urbanist planning principals...


The main difference though is that both JFK and LGA are under the control of the Port Authority who instituted the perimeter rule at LGA to protect JFK. DCA used to have a similar rule however Congress has been slowly giving that away. If the perimeter rule at LGA was totally removed you would see a dramatic change in the dynamics of JFK in terms of domestic traffic. Similarly if the perimeter rule at DCA was to be fully reinstated it would benefit IAD.

There needs to be a total severing of DCA and IAD from anything related to Congress, the State of Virginia needs to develop their own Port Authority to handle DCA and IAD free of Congressional interference. That way they can better balance the operations of both facilities so that they don't compete so much.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
DCAfan
Posts: 86
Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:22 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:56 pm

STT757 wrote:
The main difference though is that both JFK and LGA are under the control of the Port Authority who instituted the perimeter rule at LGA to protect JFK. DCA used to have a similar rule however Congress has been slowly giving that away. If the perimeter rule at LGA was totally removed you would see a dramatic change in the dynamics of JFK in terms of domestic traffic. Similarly if the perimeter rule at DCA was to be fully reinstated it would benefit IAD.

There needs to be a total severing of DCA and IAD from anything related to Congress, the State of Virginia needs to develop their own Port Authority to handle DCA and IAD free of Congressional interference. That way they can better balance the operations of both facilities so that they don't compete so much.


Nice idea but Congress will never go along. I live in downtown DC and there are a number of Members of Congress that live in my building. They are nice people. All they want is to have more face time with their families. Can you blame them?
 
DaufuskieGuy
Posts: 250
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:35 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:18 pm

thekorean wrote:
Shut down DCA and develop the land in to Entertainment District. Let people use Baltimore, Manassas, and Dulles.


the politicians would never go for that. If anything, I could foresee them pushing to expand DCA and/or eliminating the perimeter rule, having already weakened it. Regardless, as Northern VA grows IAD will be more convenient for more and more people than DCA - ever tried driving I66 inside the beltway?
 
DCA-ROCguy
Posts: 3985
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2000 5:03 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:27 pm

jwvw89 wrote:
Yes the Silver Line will help, but honestly it still won't be that convenient for people living in DC, Arlington and Falls Church due to the travel time it will take. I'm sure the travel time from IAD to DC will be a minimum of 45 minutes. That's quite a long time, especially when you can get from Metro Center to DCA in less than 20. So the talk will still continue that IAD is too far out, even after the Silver Line is completed. Not to mention this is the DC metro we are talking about, so trains will only run every 20 minutes on weekend, constant track work will likely cause delays, and the hours are not consistent to a 24 hour operation like IAD (the trains start running on weekends at 7 am and stops at midnight).


Metro being completed to IAD will indeed likely have little effect on the convenience of getting there. When the Silver Line reaches IAD, there will be TWENTY-ONE stations--count 'em on the DC Metrorail map-- between IAD and Metro Center. 21. Add a connection and three more if you want to get to Union Station. And, yes, given the terrible state of Metro, I wouldn't count on them getting trains to IAD even every 20 minutes on a weekend.

The completed Silver Line will no doubt be faster than the rumbling bus to Wiehle Ave I used the one time I tried the current setup. But still, it will not be really fast or convenient, the way a commuter train would be. And the land /easement situation between downtown DC and Dulles means a commuter train is out of the question. It can take an hour to drive from downtown DC to IAD in bad traffic now, and Metro won't be much faster. The primary benefit of the Silver Line will be to businesses in the Dulles Corridor. The real problem with Dulles was guranteed in the 1950's, when the Federal Gov't didn't stand up to Tysons-area NIMBY's and sited the fool thing out in Chantilly.

I think the commenters above are correct who say that IAD will gradually grow over the long term, as DCA absorbs the enplanement increases that came from beyond-perimeter slots and the AA-US transaction. More business complexes and residential development out through Loudoun County will gradually keep increasing the IAD catchment zone. But the Beltway-on-in market, has clearly spoken in favor of DCA.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
User avatar
Rajahdhani
Posts: 486
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:13 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:39 pm

STT757 wrote:
There needs to be a total severing of DCA and IAD from anything related to Congress, the State of Virginia needs to develop their own Port Authority to handle DCA and IAD free of Congressional interference. That way they can better balance the operations of both facilities so that they don't compete so much.


Even if they did, it would still not properly discuss or handle, BWI. Those closer to the ground, please correct me to the most correct answer - however getting from downtown DC to BWI is sometimes less of a hassle (if using mass transit) than getting to IAD. Having booked a college students on their way back recently - they explained that, despite perhaps being a longer - IAD was also more expensive, and offered less to their needs.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Washington,+DC/BWI,+Baltimore,+MD/@39.0655957,-77.135114,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b7c6de5af6e45b:0xc2524522d4885d2a!2m2!1d-77.0368707!2d38.9071923!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b7e2fcbbc2e00b:0x150cfa971740!2m2!1d-76.6683922!2d39.1774042

With a bus/metro combo taking 47 minutes.

IAD takes longer...

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Washington,+DC/IAD+-+Washington+Dulles+Intl+Airport,+Saarinen+Circle,+Dulles,+VA/@38.9211591,-77.3018518,12z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b7c6de5af6e45b:0xc2524522d4885d2a!2m2!1d-77.0368707!2d38.9071923!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b64740174eb057:0x8e01cb201080601d!2m2!1d-77.4565388!2d38.9531162

With a train/train/bus combo taking 1 hour, 10 minutes.

For the locals, please weigh in (if you can) on how perhaps the new improvements to the subway system (or improvements to local roads) contribute to access, and/or how google map's answer fails to meet the realities on the ground. For those that do it often, what's the fastest/easiest way from D.C. to either IAD or BWI.

In speaking to them, I came to realize - IAD's higher costs probably contributed into why BWI caters to greater LCC penetration. So, I can see - even if both IAD and DCA were united under the same management style, ultimately there not being as effective a control of the market, as is likely to be expected - as BWI's traffic and presence (with some overlap) could also provide some decent coverage to those wishing perhaps to increase their presence and not wanting to deal with that management team. Indeed, it is no substitute for either DCA or IAD - but I could see it complicating matters a little. For that reason, IAD might be better served being able to grow - unfettered by having to consider others for a little while.

IAD could also logically grow to support greater international carriers. Star Alliance members could find decent incentive to serve the city (and as costs improve, and UA is able to provide a larger hub - provide decent connecting feeds). An example, and decently encouraging news - AI has announced IAD. TP does not serve the airport yet - however LIS-IAD would be A321NEO capable, and decently sized for that market. That said, IAD is impressive in the amount of international carriers that they do serve - and well. So, I can see short-term them focusing on lowering the costs with UA (and giving UA as many oppurtunities as possible to grow a little) and perhaps bringing in a few other international carriers.

The question of AI's arrival will then arrive to EK, EY and QR. A non-stop to India might steal some yields away (and as has been demonstrated before, on ULH - a miniature change in those economics can erode their ability to serve it - or chose to serve it when there are other routes that provide less competition and higher yields). I don't believe that it will be enough to knock any of them off of the routes - but it will likely have an effect. Perhaps with all 3 there, the cumulative effect will be manageable. Otherwise, expect to see the weakest player drop frequencies.
 
User avatar
Rajahdhani
Posts: 486
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:13 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:53 pm

DCA-ROCguy wrote:
I think the commenters above are correct who say that IAD will gradually grow over the long term, as DCA absorbs the enplanement increases that came from beyond-perimeter slots and the AA-US transaction. More business complexes and residential development out through Loudoun County will gradually keep increasing the IAD catchment zone. But the Beltway-on-in market, has clearly spoken in favor of DCA.
Jim


Brilliant insight on the whole piece, but just asking a semi-related question - how is the growth happening in either case? In other words, if we were capable to gauging (completely anecdotally) - which would you say is the more attractive option for higher yield clientele - medium/long term.

To unpack that a little - when you mentioned 21 stops on the metro - I could only imagine that it would make it less attractive for those that would have the choice to perhaps move outside of the beltway. Are rents and opportunities for housing available in D.C., or will we be seeing more and more people moving out of the city in order to find more affordable living? How is the job market? As a local, if you don't mind me asking, as the city grows (and cannot expand) - will Loudoun County naturally grow to accommodate the 'over-flow' - or will people chose (as they 'spoke in favor of DCA') to stay within the Beltway?

I'm just curious to know more.
 
User avatar
Blimpie
Posts: 151
Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:48 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:14 pm

I honestly DO NOT see Silver Line (SV) being all that much as a saving grace to get folks to IAD. Between the stops between downtown and the airport, one also needs to keep in mind that the tracks used by the SV are also shared by the BL and OR lines which were ridiculously overcrowd before the SV even opened.

With that said, no matter how you look at it, even with the new gates being built and the reconfiguration of the National Hall at DCA, the airport is still slot restricted, and there is still only going to be only so many flights that DCA will ever be able to handle. I see plenty of room for growth for IAD domestic flights despite the shortcomings of the SV.

BWI on the other hand can get pretty damn busy. I'm not sure how much more they can accommodate without a parallel runway at some point. Come down to Friendship Park and watch how close some of those inbound and outbound flights get to each other. It gets busy.
Real men fly without wings!
 
RogerMurdock
Posts: 103
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:01 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:49 am

QuarkFly wrote:
BWI is fine for SWA access, but hard to get to from DC/Virginia.


BWI is much easier to get to now from DC than IAD, and arguably will still be easier once phase 2 of the Silver Line is complete. (Green Line to Greenbelt & B30 bus, or Amtrak to BWI station and shuttle bus) The Silver Line downtown to Dulles will take upwards of an hour and won't even drop you off adjacent to the terminal.
 
dcaviation
Posts: 366
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:26 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:32 am

Why everybody is hang on that train to IAD??? In 20+ years flying out of IAD I haven't taken public transportation once!
They have taxis, they have Uber, they have Super Shuttle, family member can drop you off or you can park your car in that huge economy parking lot.
If you can't afford one of these methods of transportation then maybe you should fly from BWI.
If you are flying for business then you can afford $50 taxi fare or $30 Uber/Lyft from downtown DC.

Other people are saying that it takes up to an hour to get to IAD in rush hour from downtown DC. How long do you think it takes to get to BWI during rush hour from downtown DC?
If you don't budget enough time to get to the airport with healthy reserve, then I don't know what to say. Everybody knows that now it takes extra time to get to your gate from the curb.
Dulles don't operate Delta Shuttle, that you can walk from the street and hop on a plane to La Guardia.
If you don't want to fly from IAD then don't. Take metro to Union Station, then Amtrak to BWI, then quick jump to shuttle bus which operates every 15 minutes and you'll be inside of the BWI terminal. Or you can take red line from Metro Center to catch green line in Gallery Place, then wait few minutes until metro bus will pick you up. At this time, which is 9:30pm, it shows that the bus ride from Greenbelt Metro Station to BWI airport will take 38 minutes.
Most of you forget that BW Parkway becomes parking lot after 3pm.
21 metro stops... At least I'm in one train and not jumping in and out with my bags.
 
User avatar
Keith2004
Posts: 219
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:59 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:52 am

Rajahdhani wrote:
STT757 wrote:
There needs to be a total severing of DCA and IAD from anything related to Congress, the State of Virginia needs to develop their own Port Authority to handle DCA and IAD free of Congressional interference. That way they can better balance the operations of both facilities so that they don't compete so much.


Even if they did, it would still not properly discuss or handle, BWI. Those closer to the ground, please correct me to the most correct answer - however getting from downtown DC to BWI is sometimes less of a hassle (if using mass transit) than getting to IAD. Having booked a college students on their way back recently - they explained that, despite perhaps being a longer - IAD was also more expensive, and offered less to their needs.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Washington,+DC/BWI,+Baltimore,+MD/@39.0655957,-77.135114,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b7c6de5af6e45b:0xc2524522d4885d2a!2m2!1d-77.0368707!2d38.9071923!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b7e2fcbbc2e00b:0x150cfa971740!2m2!1d-76.6683922!2d39.1774042

With a bus/metro combo taking 47 minutes.

IAD takes longer...

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Washington,+DC/IAD+-+Washington+Dulles+Intl+Airport,+Saarinen+Circle,+Dulles,+VA/@38.9211591,-77.3018518,12z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b7c6de5af6e45b:0xc2524522d4885d2a!2m2!1d-77.0368707!2d38.9071923!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b64740174eb057:0x8e01cb201080601d!2m2!1d-77.4565388!2d38.9531162

With a train/train/bus combo taking 1 hour, 10 minutes.

For the locals, please weigh in (if you can) on how perhaps the new improvements to the subway system (or improvements to local roads) contribute to access, and/or how google map's answer fails to meet the realities on the ground. For those that do it often, what's the fastest/easiest way from D.C. to either IAD or BWI.

In speaking to them, I came to realize - IAD's higher costs probably contributed into why BWI caters to greater LCC penetration. So, I can see - even if both IAD and DCA were united under the same management style, ultimately there not being as effective a control of the market, as is likely to be expected - as BWI's traffic and presence (with some overlap) could also provide some decent coverage to those wishing perhaps to increase their presence and not wanting to deal with that management team. Indeed, it is no substitute for either DCA or IAD - but I could see it complicating matters a little. For that reason, IAD might be better served being able to grow - unfettered by having to consider others for a little while.

IAD could also logically grow to support greater international carriers. Star Alliance members could find decent incentive to serve the city (and as costs improve, and UA is able to provide a larger hub - provide decent connecting feeds). An example, and decently encouraging news - AI has announced IAD. TP does not serve the airport yet - however LIS-IAD would be A321NEO capable, and decently sized for that market. That said, IAD is impressive in the amount of international carriers that they do serve - and well. So, I can see short-term them focusing on lowering the costs with UA (and giving UA as many oppurtunities as possible to grow a little) and perhaps bringing in a few other international carriers.

The question of AI's arrival will then arrive to EK, EY and QR. A non-stop to India might steal some yields away (and as has been demonstrated before, on ULH - a miniature change in those economics can erode their ability to serve it - or chose to serve it when there are other routes that provide less competition and higher yields). I don't believe that it will be enough to knock any of them off of the routes - but it will likely have an effect. Perhaps with all 3 there, the cumulative effect will be manageable. Otherwise, expect to see the weakest player drop frequencies.


First anyone talking about closing DCA must not live in the area.

BWI and DCA are well connected.

DCA is almost in the city proper with short Train rides and Taxi/Uber rides that make it ideal

BWI is connected via Metro/Bus Combo Shorter than IAD Metro/Bus Combo, and also had Commuter rail/Amtrak options from DC

IAD has Metro/Bus Combo that takes long as is, and won't be much shorter with the 22 silver line stops. Express trains are not possible with current infrastructure

Anyone who lives in DC area knows WMATA is not a reliable option on a good day when going into deep suburbs, particularly with weekend/off peak waits 20-30 minutes. Add that 20-30 minute wait for a train to a 1 hr train ride from downtown, and that's not counting the daily train breakdowns and other issues even during RUSH HOUR.
WMATA closes at Midnight and they are talking about cutting the already SLOW service. Silver Line will do little or nothing to make IAD more attractive than DCA or BWI.

What IAD needs is an express train from DC, but political will is not there
 
StuckinCMHland
Posts: 121
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:59 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:53 am

dcaviation wrote:
Why everybody is hang on that train to IAD??? In 20+ years flying out of IAD I haven't taken public transportation once!
They have taxis, they have Uber, they have Super Shuttle, family member can drop you off or you can park your car in that huge economy parking lot.
If you can't afford one of these methods of transportation then maybe you should fly from BWI.
If you are flying for business then you can afford $50 taxi fare or $30 Uber/Lyft from downtown DC.

Other people are saying that it takes up to an hour to get to IAD in rush hour from downtown DC. How long do you think it takes to get to BWI during rush hour from downtown DC?
If you don't budget enough time to get to the airport with healthy reserve, then I don't know what to say. Everybody knows that now it takes extra time to get to your gate from the curb.
Dulles don't operate Delta Shuttle, that you can walk from the street and hop on a plane to La Guardia.
If you don't want to fly from IAD then don't. Take metro to Union Station, then Amtrak to BWI, then quick jump to shuttle bus which operates every 15 minutes and you'll be inside of the BWI terminal. Or you can take red line from Metro Center to catch green line in Gallery Place, then wait few minutes until metro bus will pick you up. At this time, which is 9:30pm, it shows that the bus ride from Greenbelt Metro Station to BWI airport will take 38 minutes.
Most of you forget that BW Parkway becomes parking lot after 3pm.
21 metro stops... At least I'm in one train and not jumping in and out with my bags.


Great post! It explains everything quite well it seems to me.

Nobody wants to go to IAD unless you are flying out of the country. The reason why is that it is a lousy airport unless you are flying out of the country. If someone would make IAD a decent airport for domestic flights, people can and would find a way to get there.

Good luck solving the problems.
 
User avatar
Keith2004
Posts: 219
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:59 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:18 am

dcaviation wrote:
Why everybody is hang on that train to IAD??? In 20+ years flying out of IAD I haven't taken public transportation once!
They have taxis, they have Uber, they have Super Shuttle, family member can drop you off or you can park your car in that huge economy parking lot.
If you can't afford one of these methods of transportation then maybe you should fly from BWI.
If you are flying for business then you can afford $50 taxi fare or $30 Uber/Lyft from downtown DC.

Other people are saying that it takes up to an hour to get to IAD in rush hour from downtown DC. How long do you think it takes to get to BWI during rush hour from downtown DC?
If you don't budget enough time to get to the airport with healthy reserve, then I don't know what to say. Everybody knows that now it takes extra time to get to your gate from the curb.
Dulles don't operate Delta Shuttle, that you can walk from the street and hop on a plane to La Guardia.
If you don't want to fly from IAD then don't. Take metro to Union Station, then Amtrak to BWI, then quick jump to shuttle bus which operates every 15 minutes and you'll be inside of the BWI terminal. Or you can take red line from Metro Center to catch green line in Gallery Place, then wait few minutes until metro bus will pick you up. At this time, which is 9:30pm, it shows that the bus ride from Greenbelt Metro Station to BWI airport will take 38 minutes.
Most of you forget that BW Parkway becomes parking lot after 3pm.
21 metro stops... At least I'm in one train and not jumping in and out with my bags.


You make some decent points, but that 21 stop ride is ONLY if you start on the silver line; add a transfer from another line and 5 or more additional stops, it starts to get longer.

BW Parkway is not the only way, its probably the worst way, I-95 is almost always better, and going north there are better options during rush hour (ie US-29) Than going west to IAD.

I use all 3 airports regularly, but IAD is always 3rd choice.
 
User avatar
QuarkFly
Posts: 165
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2016 4:20 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:37 am

dcaviation wrote:
Why everybody is hang on that train to IAD??? In 20+ years flying out of IAD I haven't taken public transportation once!
They have taxis, they have Uber, they have Super Shuttle, family member can drop you off or you can park your car in that huge economy parking lot.
If you can't afford one of these methods of transportation then maybe you should fly from BWI.
If you are flying for business then you can afford $50 taxi fare or $30 Uber/Lyft from downtown DC.


Lots of people in and around DC don't have a car. Uber to/from downtown DC is going to put you back more than $30...more like $45 and I give a tip! Almost missed a flight once stuck on 66 going to IAD. Lots of stops on the Silver line, but give yourself enough time and then don't worry about the traffic.
Always take the Red Eye if possible
 
uconn99
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 5:49 am

Are people forgetting Tysons Corner (Or Tysons)? It is a fast growing suburban core with soon to be the regions tallest tower, Capital One Bank. Not only does Tysons have a growing office/residential market, the entire toll road corridor is growing. From Tysons, IAD is the easiest option IMO, as 66 can be a nightmare any time of day.
 
YoungDon
Posts: 503
Joined: Thu May 31, 2001 9:33 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:18 pm

uconn99 wrote:
Are people forgetting Tysons Corner (Or Tysons)? It is a fast growing suburban core with soon to be the regions tallest tower, Capital One Bank. Not only does Tysons have a growing office/residential market, the entire toll road corridor is growing. From Tysons, IAD is the easiest option IMO, as 66 can be a nightmare any time of day.


I live in Tysons and use both DCA (14 miles) and IAD (17 miles) regularly. Honestly, I actually slightly prefer IAD for two reasons. One, I'm more partial to UA than AA, and two its easier for me to simply drive to Dulles at any time of the day (including rush hour due to the presence of the airport-only access road) than it is to get to National, whether by metro or otherwise.

However, when I lived inside the Beltway, I hated going to Dulles for the exact opposite reasons. So I tend to concur with those that see a hard Beltway-level split to the preferred airports for DC area travelers. The metro is 11 stops to DCA and will be 11 stops to IAD once complete, so for me, neither is a GREAT option via metro, but both will be good ones.

Dulles will continue to grow - much of the growth in the area outside of the city is in the Western suburbs. The Silver Line will mostly benefit those in Fairfax County - not those in DC/Arlington. Luckily, that's a very large, affluent population to work with.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 600
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:40 pm

It's not that complex:

IAD struggles because the airport setup for Washington/Baltimore is somwhat similar to that in the NYC metro but with 14 million or so less people. There's only so much demand and DC metro growth has been slowing this decade, particularly in places like Fairfax and Loudoun counties.
 
MartijnNL
Posts: 167
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:44 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:22 pm

dcaviation wrote:
Why everybody is hang on that train to IAD??? In 20+ years flying out of IAD I haven't taken public transportation once!

In 17 years of flying in to IAD I have never taken private transportation. At home in Europe I am used of taking public transportation, so I like to ride it in the U.S. as well. Maybe people want a safer, cheaper and more environment friendly type of transportation, for example a train instead of a car.

Almost all my trips to Amsterdam Airport Schiphol involve travel by train. I am 43 years old and have never owned a car. My town and country are very easy to travel through using only public transportation. Wouldn't that be great in the DC area as well?

dcaviation wrote:
They have taxis, they have Uber, they have Super Shuttle, family member can drop you off or you can park your car in that huge economy parking lot.

Taxis and shuttles are usually more expensive than a train or metro. As a tourist I don't have family living in the area.

dcaviation wrote:
f you can't afford one of these methods of transportation then maybe you should fly from BWI. If you are flying for business then you can afford $50 taxi fare or $30 Uber/Lyft from downtown DC.

Although I can afford a taxi fare, I almost never use a cab as I prefer to spend my money on other things.
 
DaveFly
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:35 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:03 pm

Why is IAD named after John Foster Dulles? He was Eisenhower's Secretary of State, with no lasting legacy that I can recall. I know that airport names are a touchy subject, but this one really makes no sense to me. Any suggestions?
717,727,737,747,757,767,777,
L1011,DC8,DC9,DC10,MD80/90
A300,A319,320,321,330,340,
CRJ,E135/45/190,
DH8,Avro85,DHBeaver,AstarHelo,F100,ATR42
 
dcaviation
Posts: 366
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:26 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:35 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
In 17 years of flying in to IAD I have never taken private transportation. At home in Europe I am used of taking public transportation, so I like to ride it in the U.S. as well. Maybe people want a safer, cheaper and more environment friendly type of transportation, for example a train instead of a car.


There is a train but some people bitch about it, so I gave them other alternatives.



And FYI - today MWAA announced Dulles' 13th consecutive year growth for international traffic.
 
ScottB
Posts: 5804
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:12 am

United787 wrote:
IAD has yet to see it's best days, they are coming. Just like JFK saw it's rebirth, so will IAD. DCA has limited growth potential and the metro region will continue to grow in the direction of IAD.

The Silver Line will surely help...although it won't be the cure. The biggest mistake, IMHO, was not running the Silver Line through Reston Town Center... being 1/2 mile south in the middle of the freeway goes against all new urbanist planning principals...


No, the Silver Line will have almost zero impact on passenger traffic, for the key reason others have already detailed: Metro Center will be a whopping 21 stops from IAD (and roughly an hour ride) which simply is unappealing to all but the most price-conscious passengers. The Silver Line will be a boon to low-paid workers at the airport, who will sacrifice time for a relatively inexpensive ride. It's not even terribly helpful for folks outside the Beltway given that relatively few out there live within walking distance of a Metro stop and the parking model is geared toward commuters, not airport travelers.

I have said this before: UA's business model does not target price-conscious customers. Yes, they are rolling out a devalued product by way of Basic Economy fares but that is by necessity as a response to ULCC competition. They are making the Basic Economy product as unattractive as possible to condition passengers to purchase the prior economy product at a higher price than the fares they had been forced to offer to respond to ULCCs (or force the customer to pay fees for supposedly unbundled "services"). United's target passenger demographic by-and-large is not the people who would ride the Silver Line 21 stops from the District to IAD.

YoungDon wrote:
Dulles will continue to grow - much of the growth in the area outside of the city is in the Western suburbs. The Silver Line will mostly benefit those in Fairfax County - not those in DC/Arlington. Luckily, that's a very large, affluent population to work with.


Recent demographic trends point in the opposite direction. Millennials and empty nesters have been staying in or moving back into cities and the Loudoun County real estate market has been difficult.

Rajahdhani wrote:
In speaking to them, I came to realize - IAD's higher costs probably contributed into why BWI caters to greater LCC penetration. So, I can see - even if both IAD and DCA were united under the same management style, ultimately there not being as effective a control of the market, as is likely to be expected - as BWI's traffic and presence (with some overlap) could also provide some decent coverage to those wishing perhaps to increase their presence and not wanting to deal with that management team.


Actually, I think that BWI management was just more aggressive about working with carriers interested in serving the airport, and that paid off handsomely with WN's growth there, even if that meant the demise of the US hub there. IMO there has been a bit of complacency on the part of MWAA because they operate what have historically been the primary airports for Washington, D.C. -- and in the wake of that BWI grew from what had been really an afterthought to the region's busiest airport by passenger boardings. IAD's costs really weren't out-of-line until MWAA committed to some very expensive projects like the AeroTrain which didn't end up stimulating passenger traffic. They also had a bit of bad luck in that they scrambled to handle the surge in traffic from when ACA tried to go it alone as Independence Air and ended up flaming out.

STT757 wrote:
The main difference though is that both JFK and LGA are under the control of the Port Authority who instituted the perimeter rule at LGA to protect JFK. DCA used to have a similar rule however Congress has been slowly giving that away. If the perimeter rule at LGA was totally removed you would see a dramatic change in the dynamics of JFK in terms of domestic traffic. Similarly if the perimeter rule at DCA was to be fully reinstated it would benefit IAD.


The limited perimeter exemptions have had some effect, although the scarcity of exemptions still keeps a disproportionate share of LAX & SFO traffic at IAD. The most important impact has been from the divestiture of DCA slots from US/AA to new/limited entrants, resulting in significantly greater average aircraft gauge at DCA and lower fares. US historically squatted on its DCA slot portfolio with a bunch of turboprop and 50-seat RJ flying to markets with little O&D demand, thus limiting capacity at the airport and driving up fares to larger markets.
 
User avatar
BobPatterson
Posts: 3123
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:18 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:17 am

DaveFly wrote:
Why is IAD named after John Foster Dulles? He was Eisenhower's Secretary of State, with no lasting legacy that I can recall. I know that airport names are a touchy subject, but this one really makes no sense to me. Any suggestions?


Perhaps you are looking at it from too distant a point. At the time the airport was planned and being built, Mr. Dulles was highly regarded as a staunch anti-communist and defender of freedom. He happened to die at the "right time" for his name to be available for the airport.

There are those who might, today, question the name for the Kennedy Center in Washington, or for many other commemorations.

A lot of places are named in the spirit of the moment, and not with a view toward the opinions of history. Dulles, along with hundreds of other persons, has been honored with a U.S. postage stamp. Today, a large percentage of the population would have difficulty recognizing many of those who have been so honored.
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
User avatar
CALTECH
Posts: 2956
Joined: Thu May 17, 2007 4:21 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:36 am

vin2basketball wrote:
ALB - state capital and thus seat of government for America's 4th largest state
The gun is a precious Symbol of Freedom
Criminals are the deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
That is impervious to evidence of tyrants who disarm their citizens
 
BG777300ER
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:22 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:47 am

theasianguy wrote:
For the last decade, traffic has steadily declined at IAD, as more passengers prefer the convenience of DCA. It is well known that IAD is too far out and has no connections to public transportation (until the Silver Line is finally complete). The airport also employs a confusing layout of mobile lounges and a third world standard C/D concourse.

Despite all of this, the Washington Metro Area is one of the most affluent in the US with high travel demand. The airfield is underutilized, and has the potential to handle more than twice the amount of traffic it currently has. Why has United decided to neglect IAD, cutting flights, and shift capacity to the more congested EWR? If there is a big enough capital investment to raze the C/D concourse and build out a terminal configuration like ATL or DEN, I could see IAD becoming a major connection hub of 400+ daily departures for the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Transatlantic. If AA can make CLT and PHL work, why doesn't UA capitalize on IAD?


No offense but overall your statement is not very valid.
http://www.mwaa.com/about/dulles-air-traffic-statistics

Clearly shows IAD has ups and downs if you look at history. It is very dependent on government spending in my opinion. If you look at the numbers, domestic numbers went down in direct proportion every year after the United/Continental merger in 2010. This was United efficiently merging operations and routing more flights thru its mega hub at EWR. Since then, Domestic passenger traffic has steadily stabilized at around 14.5 Mil (actually going up from 2014 to 2015). On top of that, international traffic has been going up every year.

I don't think there are any alarms to be set off here of "IAD Struggling".

Is it a booming, expanding airport like LAX, no. Does it need to be, no.

Does it need some remodeling...absolutely. I despises the long walk from the 'new' C gate train stop to the old C gates, and the mobile lounges. Build the new C/D gates already...if the C/D gates looked like the B gates, with train service to both D and C gates separately, IAD would be in a good spot. I believe the train needs another stop at the current D gates, to make a complete U shape. Then, so it's not weird the train going from D-B-A-C...make the newly built gates be A and D, effectively making the old D gates A gates, old A gates to C gates, and old C gates to D gates.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 600
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:05 pm

BG777300ER wrote:
theasianguy wrote:
For the last decade, traffic has steadily declined at IAD, as more passengers prefer the convenience of DCA. It is well known that IAD is too far out and has no connections to public transportation (until the Silver Line is finally complete). The airport also employs a confusing layout of mobile lounges and a third world standard C/D concourse.

Despite all of this, the Washington Metro Area is one of the most affluent in the US with high travel demand. The airfield is underutilized, and has the potential to handle more than twice the amount of traffic it currently has. Why has United decided to neglect IAD, cutting flights, and shift capacity to the more congested EWR? If there is a big enough capital investment to raze the C/D concourse and build out a terminal configuration like ATL or DEN, I could see IAD becoming a major connection hub of 400+ daily departures for the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Transatlantic. If AA can make CLT and PHL work, why doesn't UA capitalize on IAD?


No offense but overall your statement is not very valid.
http://www.mwaa.com/about/dulles-air-traffic-statistics

Clearly shows IAD has ups and downs if you look at history. It is very dependent on government spending in my opinion. If you look at the numbers, domestic numbers went down in direct proportion every year after the United/Continental merger in 2010. This was United efficiently merging operations and routing more flights thru its mega hub at EWR. Since then, Domestic passenger traffic has steadily stabilized at around 14.5 Mil (actually going up from 2014 to 2015). On top of that, international traffic has been going up every year.

I don't think there are any alarms to be set off here of "IAD Struggling".

Is it a booming, expanding airport like LAX, no. Does it need to be, no.

Does it need some remodeling...absolutely. I despises the long walk from the 'new' C gate train stop to the old C gates, and the mobile lounges. Build the new C/D gates already...if the C/D gates looked like the B gates, with train service to both D and C gates separately, IAD would be in a good spot. I believe the train needs another stop at the current D gates, to make a complete U shape. Then, so it's not weird the train going from D-B-A-C...make the newly built gates be A and D, effectively making the old D gates A gates, old A gates to C gates, and old C gates to D gates.


IAD's peak passenger year continues to be the era of Independence Air over a decade ago. No year since has even come close to that total. Their operation was used as an excuse to build a pointless fourth runway. Dulles feels like a retail center that was overbuilt and is now half full.
 
blockski
Posts: 124
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:30 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:24 pm

The conversation about IAD and ease of access misses the point about how the airport fits into the region and the national air system. It's not going to be the favored airport for locals, particularly for short trips. Metro in 2020 will help, but it's not a silver bullet. Frankly, that isn't why the airport will succeed for fail, either. IAD's future is based on its role as a hub, not solely on attraction for local O/D trips.

The real benefit IAD offers is capacity and potential for growth. And that means more connections. IAD already offers more connecting opportunities than either DCA or BWI. I don't have the numbers handy, but the last I saw shows more passengers connecting via IAD than the other two, but still less than at other large hubs like CLT and ATL. The argument there is if IAD can keep costs under control, there's a big opportunity for United to flow more traffic through IAD instead of EWR's congested air space - which would further help drive down the cost per emplanement.

That's the opportunity that IAD has, and it's not one that either DCA or BWI can match easily. But realizing it will require partnership with United. I think you've seen that in the last few years. UA pushed MWAA to cut costs, and they have. The expected CPE for 2017 is about $18, well below the $27 peak. United showed their commitment with a new lease. The new lease allows some revenue sharing with DCA, as per MWAA's original mandate to operate DCA and IAD as a complementary pair.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 600
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:52 pm

blockski wrote:
The conversation about IAD and ease of access misses the point about how the airport fits into the region and the national air system. It's not going to be the favored airport for locals, particularly for short trips. Metro in 2020 will help, but it's not a silver bullet. Frankly, that isn't why the airport will succeed for fail, either. IAD's future is based on its role as a hub, not solely on attraction for local O/D trips.

The real benefit IAD offers is capacity and potential for growth. And that means more connections. IAD already offers more connecting opportunities than either DCA or BWI. I don't have the numbers handy, but the last I saw shows more passengers connecting via IAD than the other two, but still less than at other large hubs like CLT and ATL. The argument there is if IAD can keep costs under control, there's a big opportunity for United to flow more traffic through IAD instead of EWR's congested air space - which would further help drive down the cost per emplanement.

That's the opportunity that IAD has, and it's not one that either DCA or BWI can match easily. But realizing it will require partnership with United. I think you've seen that in the last few years. UA pushed MWAA to cut costs, and they have. The expected CPE for 2017 is about $18, well below the $27 peak. United showed their commitment with a new lease. The new lease allows some revenue sharing with DCA, as per MWAA's original mandate to operate DCA and IAD as a complementary pair.


In fairness, EWR is massively congested today while IAD has tons of extra capacity yet UA hasn't really moved their flow down to Dulles at all. That kind of says it all.

Sure there's potential for growth but that potential has been there for over five decades now. It looked like it was being tapped into during the 1990s but since 9/11 overall passenger growth has stalled despite gains on the international side.

This dream of many on here that IAD will be the next great connection hub hasn't materialized.
 
peterj324
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2016 10:47 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:56 pm

Personally it is easiest for me to get to DCA from Northern Virginia but IAD is far easier than BWI. With BWI it takes over an hour from Arlington and it is far worse during rush hour. I've taken up to 90 minutes to get from my house to BWI. And when arriving to BWI the only cheap parking is offsite at a third party lot. It takes another 15-30 minutes to wait for a shuttle and drive to the airport.

The drive to IAD is not nearly as abd at around 45 minutes and it is far less dependent on rush hour because of the Dulles toll road that is exclusively for the airport.

When the metro comes, I expect only a small rise in passengers. It will still be a long metro ride from the city, the metro is difficult to use for non residents (Fares to destinations are different depending on the destination an time of day and riding the metro now requires you to buy a smartrip card that costs $20 upfront). In addition it is a pain to take luggage on the metro and not many people use the metro to DCA which is much more convenient to D.C.

Anyways the metro to IAD will help passenger figures a bit but not very much IMO.
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1537
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:03 pm

jwvw89 wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
Don't worry Mods...this post won't mention our new US President's risk to DC area airports, so hope you won't remove this post...

IAD will do fine in the future, regardless of what UA does...

- 2020 Silver-line Metro rail arrives, all the "too far out" from DC talk should subside.



Yes the Silver Line will help, but honestly it still won't be that convenient for people living in DC, Arlington and Falls Church due to the travel time it will take. I'm sure the travel time from IAD to DC will be a minimum of 45 minutes. That's quite a long time, especially when you can get from Metro Center to DCA in less than 20. So the talk will still continue that IAD is too far out, even after the Silver Line is completed.

Not to mention this is the DC metro we are talking about, so trains will only run every 20 minutes on weekend, constant track work will likely cause delays, and the hours are not consistent to a 24 hour operation like IAD (the trains start running on weekends at 7 am and stops at midnight).


I would actually do the 45mins. Right now I prefer to fly out of EWR or JFK than out of IAD if I cannot do DCA. For some reason IAD is just a non-starter for me.
 
GSP psgr
Posts: 422
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:09 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:19 pm

peterj324 wrote:
When the metro comes, I expect only a small rise in passengers. It will still be a long metro ride from the city, the metro is difficult to use for non residents (Fares to destinations are different depending on the destination an time of day and riding the metro now requires you to buy a smartrip card that costs $20 upfront). In addition it is a pain to take luggage on the metro and not many people use the metro to DCA which is much more convenient to D.C.


Those SmartTrip Cards cost $2, not $20.
 
GSP psgr
Posts: 422
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:09 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:19 pm

peterj324 wrote:
When the metro comes, I expect only a small rise in passengers. It will still be a long metro ride from the city, the metro is difficult to use for non residents (Fares to destinations are different depending on the destination an time of day and riding the metro now requires you to buy a smartrip card that costs $20 upfront). In addition it is a pain to take luggage on the metro and not many people use the metro to DCA which is much more convenient to D.C.


Those SmartTrip Cards cost $2, not $20.
 
GSP psgr
Posts: 422
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:09 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:19 pm

peterj324 wrote:
When the metro comes, I expect only a small rise in passengers. It will still be a long metro ride from the city, the metro is difficult to use for non residents (Fares to destinations are different depending on the destination an time of day and riding the metro now requires you to buy a smartrip card that costs $20 upfront). In addition it is a pain to take luggage on the metro and not many people use the metro to DCA which is much more convenient to D.C.


Those SmartTrip Cards cost $2, not $20.
 
GSP psgr
Posts: 422
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:09 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:20 pm

peterj324 wrote:
When the metro comes, I expect only a small rise in passengers. It will still be a long metro ride from the city, the metro is difficult to use for non residents (Fares to destinations are different depending on the destination an time of day and riding the metro now requires you to buy a smartrip card that costs $20 upfront). In addition it is a pain to take luggage on the metro and not many people use the metro to DCA which is much more convenient to D.C.


Those SmartTrip Cards cost $2, not $20.
 
ScottB
Posts: 5804
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:06 pm

peterj324 wrote:
And when arriving to BWI the only cheap parking is offsite at a third party lot. It takes another 15-30 minutes to wait for a shuttle and drive to the airport.


How is this an argument in favor of IAD? The long-term economy lot at BWI is $8/day. The economy lot at IAD is $10/day. You complain about the cost of parking at BWI when it's more expensive at IAD?

blockski wrote:
UA pushed MWAA to cut costs, and they have. The expected CPE for 2017 is about $18, well below the $27 peak. United showed their commitment with a new lease. The new lease allows some revenue sharing with DCA, as per MWAA's original mandate to operate DCA and IAD as a complementary pair.


But it's not entirely clear if the reduction in CPE at IAD is due to cost-cutting or financial tricks -- i.e. the two-year subsidy from the Commonwealth of Virginia and siphoning money from DCA to IAD. And while a CPE of $18 is workable for an international gateway airport, it's grossly out-of-whack for a domestic connecting hub compared to CPE at ATL, CLT, and even BWI which is under $10.

blockski wrote:
IAD already offers more connecting opportunities than either DCA or BWI.


This is by necessity precisely because it is the least-preferred airport for travelers in the region; the fact that both DCA and BWI outpace IAD in total passengers even while handling fewer connections just underscores that IAD is the least desirable option due to the combination of location, passenger experience, flight/airline options, cost, etc.

izbtmnhd wrote:
In fairness, EWR is massively congested today while IAD has tons of extra capacity yet UA hasn't really moved their flow down to Dulles at all. That kind of says it all.


So the Dulles dilemma in the UA network is that it doesn't really offer much to the system which can't be done with EWR. IAD's key value to UA lies in O&D traffic to/from beyond-perimeter domestic markets (in which there are insufficient exemptions available at DCA to meet O&D) along with international markets. Substantially all connecting flow on UA currently passing through IAD could very likely be handled via EWR & ORD by increasing average aircraft gauge. EWR is problematic due to congestion and delays but IAD is problematic due to costs and low local traffic. Eliminating a hub from the UA network very likely eliminates north of $100,000,000 annually in structural cost.
 
peterj324
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2016 10:47 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:20 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
peterj324 wrote:
When the metro comes, I expect only a small rise in passengers. It will still be a long metro ride from the city, the metro is difficult to use for non residents (Fares to destinations are different depending on the destination an time of day and riding the metro now requires you to buy a smartrip card that costs $20 upfront). In addition it is a pain to take luggage on the metro and not many people use the metro to DCA which is much more convenient to D.C.


Those SmartTrip Cards cost $2, not $20.


they have changed it in recent years from $20 (that includes $15 in usable fare) and now $10 ($8 in usable fare). It still costs at least $10 up front and my point is that it is difficult for a tourist to use because unlike other cities, the card pays in dollar amounts rather than trips

For example in New York any subways trip costs $2.75 no matter where the destination and whatever the time, while in D.C. it depends on where you are going and what time. (off peak, peak, and peak of the peak) Meaning that a single trip could costs $2.54 $2.86 or $3.13 for a trip between the same 2 stations at different times of the day.

And please stop spamming the thread with your repeat responses.
 
Noreastshuttle
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:34 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:32 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
STT757 wrote:
There needs to be a total severing of DCA and IAD from anything related to Congress, the State of Virginia needs to develop their own Port Authority to handle DCA and IAD free of Congressional interference. That way they can better balance the operations of both facilities so that they don't compete so much.


Even if they did, it would still not properly discuss or handle, BWI. Those closer to the ground, please correct me to the most correct answer - however getting from downtown DC to BWI is sometimes less of a hassle (if using mass transit) than getting to IAD. Having booked a college students on their way back recently - they explained that, despite perhaps being a longer - IAD was also more expensive, and offered less to their needs.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Washington,+DC/BWI,+Baltimore,+MD/@39.0655957,-77.135114,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b7c6de5af6e45b:0xc2524522d4885d2a!2m2!1d-77.0368707!2d38.9071923!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b7e2fcbbc2e00b:0x150cfa971740!2m2!1d-76.6683922!2d39.1774042

With a bus/metro combo taking 47 minutes.

IAD takes longer...

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Washington,+DC/IAD+-+Washington+Dulles+Intl+Airport,+Saarinen+Circle,+Dulles,+VA/@38.9211591,-77.3018518,12z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b7c6de5af6e45b:0xc2524522d4885d2a!2m2!1d-77.0368707!2d38.9071923!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b64740174eb057:0x8e01cb201080601d!2m2!1d-77.4565388!2d38.9531162

With a train/train/bus combo taking 1 hour, 10 minutes.

For the locals, please weigh in (if you can) on how perhaps the new improvements to the subway system (or improvements to local roads) contribute to access, and/or how google map's answer fails to meet the realities on the ground. For those that do it often, what's the fastest/easiest way from D.C. to either IAD or BWI.

In speaking to them, I came to realize - IAD's higher costs probably contributed into why BWI caters to greater LCC penetration. So, I can see - even if both IAD and DCA were united under the same management style, ultimately there not being as effective a control of the market, as is likely to be expected - as BWI's traffic and presence (with some overlap) could also provide some decent coverage to those wishing perhaps to increase their presence and not wanting to deal with that management team. Indeed, it is no substitute for either DCA or IAD - but I could see it complicating matters a little. For that reason, IAD might be better served being able to grow - unfettered by having to consider others for a little while.

IAD could also logically grow to support greater international carriers. Star Alliance members could find decent incentive to serve the city (and as costs improve, and UA is able to provide a larger hub - provide decent connecting feeds). An example, and decently encouraging news - AI has announced IAD. TP does not serve the airport yet - however LIS-IAD would be A321NEO capable, and decently sized for that market. That said, IAD is impressive in the amount of international carriers that they do serve - and well. So, I can see short-term them focusing on lowering the costs with UA (and giving UA as many oppurtunities as possible to grow a little) and perhaps bringing in a few other international carriers.

The question of AI's arrival will then arrive to EK, EY and QR. A non-stop to India might steal some yields away (and as has been demonstrated before, on ULH - a miniature change in those economics can erode their ability to serve it - or chose to serve it when there are other routes that provide less competition and higher yields). I don't believe that it will be enough to knock any of them off of the routes - but it will likely have an effect. Perhaps with all 3 there, the cumulative effect will be manageable. Otherwise, expect to see the weakest player drop frequencies.



As a local when I lived in Washington (5th & K) I chose DCA or BWI, never chose IAD. As stated before, BWI and DCA are so much more connected, Simple as that. Maryland suburbs domestically never go over IAD. Traffic is horrible in NOVA. Though The Baltimore/Washington parkway and 95 traffic bottleneck is horrible, it is much more manageable the traffic nightmare of NOVA. Of course Maryland suburbs go to BWI and Northern Virginia Suburbs are inclined to Dulles. But IMO if a Washingtonian (DC Proper) is faced with using another airport other than National, they are more inclined now to choose BWI because of connectivity other than driving, Metro/B30 and Amtrak. Even with the Silverline... the already normally limited Metro service, plus 21 stops on top of that will no make it anymore attractive. Amtrak/Marc is a max six stops if not lucky enough to hop on MARC express trains or standard Amtrak which becomes 2 stops. MTA has even been proposing to even extend MARC train hours even longer because of recent popularity.



And I know fellow crew member "dcaviation" is very passionate about IAD. I'll still be rooting for Dulles success but it's going to still be uphill. National Airport is enjoying its city center presence and BWI is not giving up not letting up with its capital spending to maintain being the regions busiest with passenger boarding. I personally feel BWI is more Easy Come Easy Go than Dulles.
BOS-WASH Megalopolis
 
blockski
Posts: 124
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:30 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:54 pm

ScottB wrote:
blockski wrote:
UA pushed MWAA to cut costs, and they have. The expected CPE for 2017 is about $18, well below the $27 peak. United showed their commitment with a new lease. The new lease allows some revenue sharing with DCA, as per MWAA's original mandate to operate DCA and IAD as a complementary pair.


But it's not entirely clear if the reduction in CPE at IAD is due to cost-cutting or financial tricks -- i.e. the two-year subsidy from the Commonwealth of Virginia and siphoning money from DCA to IAD. And while a CPE of $18 is workable for an international gateway airport, it's grossly out-of-whack for a domestic connecting hub compared to CPE at ATL, CLT, and even BWI which is under $10.


It's certainly due to cost reduction and not just VA's modest two year subsidy. MWAA has refinanced lots of debt, they've brought on new revenues through new concessions and real estate development, and held other costs steady. And yes, they'll be the first to acknowledge that the costs are still too high for something other than a gateway hub, but the trend is clearly in the right direction, and UA has been adding capacity accordingly.

blockski wrote:
IAD already offers more connecting opportunities than either DCA or BWI.


This is by necessity precisely because it is the least-preferred airport for travelers in the region; the fact that both DCA and BWI outpace IAD in total passengers even while handling fewer connections just underscores that IAD is the least desirable option due to the combination of location, passenger experience, flight/airline options, cost, etc.


I mean, yes, but my point is that this is largely irrelevant for IAD's strategy going forward. They'll never have DCA's location, and they'll never have BWI's benefit of having Washington on one side and Baltimore on the other. But growing air traffic doesn't need to rely solely on local traffic. And the local traffic that IAD already has is more than enough to build on.

Scott Kirby and Oscar Munoz hinted at a new, different role for IAD beyond just the gateway hub role it has had for UA in the past. There's certainly the opportunity for additional domestic connectivity if that's the strategy they'd like to pursue. And working with MWAA to cut costs at IAD is a key way to do that.
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5348
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:14 pm

ScottB wrote:
Substantially all connecting flow on UA currently passing through IAD could very likely be handled via EWR & ORD by increasing average aircraft gauge. EWR is problematic due to congestion and delays but IAD is problematic due to costs and low local traffic. Eliminating a hub from the UA network very likely eliminates north of $100,000,000 annually in structural cost.


Maybe, but as UA found out with CLE, much of the connecting traffic that went through CLE didn't end up going through EWR or ORD. They went to another airline!

In the long-run, IAD will get help from a few factors:

1) DCA can't grow much more. Even in the last few months of 2016, growth at DCA has slowed tremendously with AA and B6 basically stagnant. WN is the biggest stimulus remaining because they have a lot of new routes still struggling to fill planes.

2) EWR's growth is constrained and in the long-term UA will want more O&D traffic to flow through EWR. Let's face it, LGA can't do much more, so that means EWR and JFK have to carry the O&D workload. Plus, the O&D is more profitable.

3) Even BWI's growth will slow as WN simply isn't going to grow BWI that fast anymore. BWI to anywhere domestic is already saturated for WN and they've already hit most of the international they can. The main stimulus to BWI are NK and the likes of WOW/Condor.

Now, it will take time for these factors to happen, so it will be a slow slog for IAD. And of course, any economic downfall or major government cuts could also hurt IAD.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 600
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:25 pm

IAD's local market is so strong that it's best year was 2005. Meanwhile EWR is bursting at the seams and is still growing.

UA clearly prefers EWR over IAD no matter what Munoz says. United can try to build something (again) at Dulles but it can't take away from the profitability at Newark. That's going to be a very hard puzzle to solve.
 
b6sea
Posts: 567
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:44 pm

Re: Why is IAD struggling?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:36 pm

BobPatterson wrote:
DaveFly wrote:
Why is IAD named after John Foster Dulles? He was Eisenhower's Secretary of State, with no lasting legacy that I can recall. I know that airport names are a touchy subject, but this one really makes no sense to me. Any suggestions?


Perhaps you are looking at it from too distant a point. At the time the airport was planned and being built, Mr. Dulles was highly regarded as a staunch anti-communist and defender of freedom. He happened to die at the "right time" for his name to be available for the airport.

There are those who might, today, question the name for the Kennedy Center in Washington, or for many other commemorations.

A lot of places are named in the spirit of the moment, and not with a view toward the opinions of history. Dulles, along with hundreds of other persons, has been honored with a U.S. postage stamp. Today, a large percentage of the population would have difficulty recognizing many of those who have been so honored.


Reminds me of Senator Henry M. ("Scoop") Jackson here in Washington (state). His name is on quite a few schools and buildings and the Port of Seattle tried to rename SEA after him when he passed away. Didn't happen because Tacoma protested (I think rightly) at having their name taken out of the airport name.

However, nowadays I'm not sure you could name something after Scoop Jackson because he was notorious hawk on foreign policy and a Vietnam War supporter, as well as being credited as one of the founding fathers of neoconservatism, which would really drive the Democratic political establishment in Seattle insane despite the fact he and Senator Warren G. Magnuson were likely the most prolific Democratic senate duo in recent history. That said, I think most people are either too young (I suppose I would fall in that category) to know about Scoop Jackson or are transplants and don't care to know much about their adopted home, so the names are just names.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos