FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

I've given up trying to figure out what is truly new and what is extended. Anybody want to tackle that?
4B ABQ-CNM APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>0.9
4B ABQ-SVC MAR 0.8>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3
4B AIA-CDR JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7
4B AIA-DEN JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7
4B ATL-MSL APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3
4B BNA-GLH APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7
4B BNA-MSL APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.9
4B CDR-DEN JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7
4B CNM-DFW APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>0.9
4B CVN-DFW APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
4B DFW-GLH APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.9
4B LAX-MCE APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
4B MCE-OAK APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7
4B MSP-TVF APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
4B PDT-PDX APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
4B PHX-SOW MAR 0.9>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3
4B PHX-SVC APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0

4O IAH-MTY MAR 1.0>0.6
4O JFK-MEX MAR 2>3 APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3
4O MIA-CUN MAR 2>0
4O MIA-MEX MAR 3>1.7

9V MIA-BLA MAR 1.7>1.0 APR 1.7>1.0 MAY 1.7>1.0 JUN 1.7>1.0 JUL 1.7>1.0 AUG 1.7>1.0 SEP 1.7>1.0 OCT 1.7>1.0

AA CLT-BCN SEP 0.8>1.0
AA DCA-FLL JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
AA DCA-STL JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 OCT 4>5
AA DFW-MGA JUN 1.0>0.8 JUL 1.0>0.9
AA JFK-BDA JUN 1.7>1.9 JUL 1.7>1.9 AUG 1.7>1.8 SEP 1.7>1.9 OCT 1.7>1.8
Suspended till Christmas
*AA JFK-TUS MAY 1.0>0.1 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
AA JFK-ZRH OCT 0.8>1.0
AA MIA-ELH MAY 1.0>0.9
AA MIA-LIR JUN 2>1.9 JUL 2>1.9
AA MIA-SAP MAY 1.9>1.1
AA ORD-LGA JUN 13>14 JUL 13>14 AUG 13>14 OCT 13>14
AA PHL-ATL MAY 6>7 JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 6>7 OCT 6>7
AA PHL-AUS MAY 1.1>2.0
That didn't last long. Too much connectivity lost with 1 RT.
*AA PHL-BWI MAY 1.5>4 JUN 1.0>3 JUL 1.0>3 AUG 1.0>3 SEP 1.0>3 OCT 1.0>3
AA PHL-DEN MAY 3>1.9
AA PHL-FLL JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
AA PHL-FRA OCT 0.7>0.9
AA PHL-LAS JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
AA PHL-MSP MAY 4>3
*AA PHL-PBI JUN 3>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.3
AA PHL-RDU MAY 6>7 JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8 AUG 7>8 SEP 7>8 OCT 7>8
AA PHL-SAN MAY 3>2

AM JFK-CUN APR 0.9>0.8 MAY 1.0>0

Usual Apple charters
AS BWI-CUN JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.1
AS ORD-PVR JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.1
AS PDX-BLI JUN 1.0>1.9 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
AS PDX-BZN JUN 1.0>1.9 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
AS PDX-SLC JUL 2>3 AUG 1.8>3 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2
AS SEA-BIL AUG 2>3
AS SEA-FCA AUG 3>4
AS SEA-GEG JUL 15>14
AS SEA-PDX APR 24>25 MAY 24>25 JUN 26>25 JUL 26>25 AUG 26>25
AS SEA-SFO AUG 8>10
AS SEA-YVR JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5

AV DFW-SAL MAR 0.7>0.5 APR 0.7>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.6

B6 JFK-RSW MAY 3>2

A little CVG reshuffle. Net -1.
DL CVG-ATL MAY 7>8
DL CVG-BNA MAY 1.5>0.7 JUN 1.6>0.8 JUL 1.3>0.7 AUG 1.6>0.8 SEP 1.5>0.7 OCT 1.5>0.8
DL CVG-IAH MAY 0.8>1.5 JUN 0.9>1.6 JUL 0.7>1.4 AUG 0.9>1.6 SEP 0.8>1.5 OCT 0.9>1.6
DL CVG-MCO OCT 2>1.4
DL CVG-MKE JUN 1.4>0.9 JUL 1.3>0.7 AUG 1.6>0.9 SEP 1.5>0.8 OCT 1.5>0.8
DL CVG-ORD JUN 4>5 JUL 3>4 AUG 4>5 OCT 4>5
DL MEM-CVG MAY 1.5>0.7 JUN 1.6>0.8 JUL 1.3>0.7 AUG 1.6>0.9 SEP 1.5>0.8 OCT 1.5>0.8

*EK EWR-ATH MAR 0>0.6 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0

G4 AZA-CID SEP 0.6>0.4
G4 AZA-EUG AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 AZA-PIA SEP 0.6>0.4
G4 AZA-PSC AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 AZA-RAP SEP 0.6>0.4
G4 AZA-RFD AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 BMI-SFB JUL 0.6>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.3 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.6>0.3
G4 CHA-PIE JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
G4 CKB-SFB AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 CLE-PGD SEP 0.6>0.4
G4 DSM-PIE JUL 0.6>0.4 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 FLL-LEX SEP 0.6>0.4
G4 FWA-PIE AUG 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
G4 GSP-PIE AUG 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
G4 GSP-SFB JUL 0.6>0.4 SEP 0.6>0.4
G4 LCK-PGD SEP 0.6>0.4
G4 LCK-PIE SEP 0.6>0.4
G4 LCK-SAV AUG 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
G4 PGD-PIA JUL 0.5>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
G4 PIE-RFD AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 PIE-ROA JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 RFD-SFB JUL 0.6>0.4 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 SBN-SFB SEP 0.6>0.4
G4 SFB-SGF AUG 0.7>0.3 SEP 0.7>0.3 OCT 0.7>0.3

HA HNL-OGG APR 25>27

JL HNL-KIX APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.0>1.6 AUG 1.0>1.8 OCT 1.0>1.8
JL HNL-NRT APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5

LA JFK-SCL JUL 1.4>1.3 AUG 1.4>1.3
LA LAX-SCL JUL 0.5>0.6 AUG 0.4>0.6
LA MCO-SCL JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3
LA MIA-CUN JUL 0.2>0.3
LA MIA-SCL JUL 1.7>1.9

*NK BDL-FLL JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*NK BDL-MCO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK cutting back their G4-style marekts. Not where we thought they'd be headed.
NK IAG-MCO JUN 0.8>0.6
NK MCO-PBG JUN 0.7>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.5 SEP 0.2>0.1

P1 LUK-MMU MAR 0.1>0.9

SE MIA-CDG AUG 0.4>0.6

SY BOS-MSP AUG 1.9>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>1.8
SY DCA-MSP SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9
SY DEN-MSP SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9
SY DFW-CUN SEP 0.1>0.6 OCT 0>0.5
SY JFK-MSP AUG 1.9>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
SY LAS-MSP AUG 1.3>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>4
SY LAX-MSP AUG 1.9>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
SY MCO-MSP SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.6
SY MSP-CUN SEP 0.0>0.2 OCT 0>0.6
SY MSP-PHX SEP 0>0.7 OCT 0>1.6
SY MSP-RSW OCT 0>1.0
SY MSP-SAN SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9
SY MSP-SEA SEP 0>1.4 OCT 0>1.2
SY MSP-SFO SEP 0>1.9 OCT 0>1.9

UA DEN-EGE OCT 1.9>1.1
UA DEN-FCA AUG 3>4 SEP 2>4
UA DEN-GJT SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
UA DEN-MAF JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
UA DEN-MSO OCT 3>4
UA DEN-MSY AUG 1.5>1.0
UA DEN-MTJ SEP 3>4 OCT 2>4
UA DEN-RAP AUG 5>6 SEP 4>6 OCT 4>5
UA DEN-SAF OCT 2>3
UA EWR-AUS SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
UA EWR-LAS JUN 7>6 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
UA EWR-MEM SEP 3>1.8 OCT 3>1.7
UA EWR-MKE OCT 3>4
UA EWR-ORF SEP 4>5
UA IAD-GSP SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA IAD-TYS JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
UA IAH-ABQ SEP 4>3
UA IAH-AMA JUL 4>3
UA IAH-AUS SEP 11>10 OCT 11>10
UA IAH-ELP SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5
UA IAH-HRL SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
UA IAH-LBB JUL 4>3 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA IAH-MEM JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
UA IAH-MLU SEP 3>1.8 OCT 3>1.9
UA IAH-PNS SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4
UA IAH-RIC AUG 1.5>1.0
UA IAH-RSW AUG 1.6>1.1
UA IAH-SAT JUN 10>9 JUL 10>9
UA IAH-SEA MAY 5>6
UA IAH-VPS SEP 4>3 OCT 3>2
UA LAX-BJX MAR 1.7>1.3
UA LAX-BWI SEP 1.0>1.8 OCT 1.0>2
UA ORD-ANC OCT 1.0>0.1
UA ORD-BDL JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4
UA ORD-FCA SEP 0.2>1.0
UA ORD-JAN SEP 1.8>1.1 OCT 1.9>1.0
UA ORD-MCO OCT 5>6
UA ORD-SDF SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
UA SFO-BZN SEP 0.4>1.2 OCT 0.0>0.9
UA SFO-FLL OCT 0>0.9
UA SFO-ORD OCT 16>15
UA SFO-RDU SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2

How many times are we up to on this? Start delayed till June.
*UP TPA-NAS APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0.1

VS SFO-LHR APR 1.9>1.7

WP HNL-OGG MAR 14>11

WS DFW-YYC SEP 0.2>0.9 OCT 0>0.8
WS FLL-YUL MAY 0.4>0.1 JUN 0.4>0.1 JUL 0.5>0.2 AUG 0.4>0.1 SEP 0.4>0.2 OCT 0.5>0.2
WS LAS-YEG MAY 2>1.4 JUN 2>1.4 JUL 2>1.5 AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.4
WS LAS-YWG MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.6>0.3 SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.6>0.3
*WS LAX-YYZ JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2
WS MCO-YYC MAY 0.3>0.1 JUN 0.3>0.1
WS MYR-YYZ MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
WS PHX-YYZ OCT 0.5>0.1
WS RSW-YYZ MAY 1.1>0.5
WS SAN-YVR SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
*WS SFO-YVR MAY 1.0>1.8 JUN 1.0>1.9 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 0.9>1.8
WS TPA-YYZ MAY 1.3>0.8

Thanks as always for the time and effort to compile and share this stuff...

enilria wrote:

I've given up trying to figure out what is truly new and what is extended. Anybody want to tackle that?
4B ABQ-CNM APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>0.9
4B ABQ-SVC MAR 0.8>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3
4B AIA-CDR JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7
4B AIA-DEN JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7
4B ATL-MSL APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3
4B BNA-GLH APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7
4B BNA-MSL APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.9
4B CDR-DEN JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7
4B CNM-DFW APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>0.9
4B CVN-DFW APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
4B DFW-GLH APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.9
4B LAX-MCE APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
4B MCE-OAK APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7
4B MSP-TVF APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
4B PDT-PDX APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
4B PHX-SOW MAR 0.9>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3
4B PHX-SVC APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0

Those are all existing markets being pushed out. I don't think they have anything up for rebid they are losing. Massena NY has requested them over Cape Air in the new bid but I haven't seen anything official yet.

enilria wrote:

Suspended till Christmas
*AA JFK-TUS MAY 1.0>0.1 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0

Hardly surprising. JFK-TUS definitely seems like more of a winter route - I was actually surprised it was ever scheduled during the summer. This seems like an easy and obvious opportunity - similar to EGE - to optimize a prime JFK slot pair for one use in one place during summer and for another use in another place (TUS) when that market's demand peaks in winter. Interestingly it looks like the route does operate for a very brief stint - four days - in mid-October.

enilria wrote:

AA CLT-BCN SEP 0.8>1.0
AA JFK-ZRH OCT 0.8>1.0
AA PHL-FRA OCT 0.7>0.9

Good to see all of these extended and/or frequency increased, although interesting in light of the commentary of Friday's earnings call.

enilria wrote:

AA DFW-MGA JUN 1.0>0.8 JUL 1.0>0.9

Also glad to see this market sticking around, albeit at seasonally-reduced frequency. Still incredible to me that AA couldn't make DFW-PTY work, even low-frequency and/or seasonal.

enilria wrote:

AA CLT-BCN SEP 0.8>1.0
AA DCA-FLL JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
AA DCA-STL JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 OCT 4>5
AA DFW-MGA JUN 1.0>0.8 JUL 1.0>0.9
AA JFK-BDA JUN 1.7>1.9 JUL 1.7>1.9 AUG 1.7>1.8 SEP 1.7>1.9 OCT 1.7>1.8
Suspended till Christmas
*AA JFK-TUS MAY 1.0>0.1 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
AA JFK-ZRH OCT 0.8>1.0
AA MIA-ELH MAY 1.0>0.9
AA MIA-LIR JUN 2>1.9 JUL 2>1.9
AA MIA-SAP MAY 1.9>1.1
AA ORD-LGA JUN 13>14 JUL 13>14 AUG 13>14 OCT 13>14
AA PHL-ATL MAY 6>7 JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 6>7 OCT 6>7
AA PHL-AUS MAY 1.1>2.0
That didn't last long. Too much connectivity lost with 1 RT.
*AA PHL-BWI MAY 1.5>4 JUN 1.0>3 JUL 1.0>3 AUG 1.0>3 SEP 1.0>3 OCT 1.0>3
AA PHL-DEN MAY 3>1.9
AA PHL-FLL JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
AA PHL-FRA OCT 0.7>0.9
AA PHL-LAS JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
AA PHL-MSP MAY 4>3
*AA PHL-PBI JUN 3>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.3
AA PHL-RDU MAY 6>7 JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8 AUG 7>8 SEP 7>8 OCT 7>8
AA PHL-SAN MAY 3>2

Interesting summer seasonal extensions on CLT-BCN, PHL-FRA, & JFK-ZRH
PHL-SAN/MSP/DEN/LAS cuts going into the summer are a bit surprising. Especially since 3 of them are at least partially going 321>738 which is a capacity cut in itself.

commavia wrote:

Hardly surprising. JFK-TUS definitely seems like more of a winter route - I was actually surprised it was ever scheduled during the summer.

They needed year-round service to take advantage of the revenue guarantee from the Tucson Airport Authority.

TAA has been concerned about the flight for a while now: http://tucson.com/business/tucson/tucso ... 6dc69.html

enilria wrote:

A little CVG reshuffle. Net -1.
DL CVG-ATL MAY 7>8
DL CVG-BNA MAY 1.5>0.7 JUN 1.6>0.8 JUL 1.3>0.7 AUG 1.6>0.8 SEP 1.5>0.7 OCT 1.5>0.8
DL CVG-IAH MAY 0.8>1.5 JUN 0.9>1.6 JUL 0.7>1.4 AUG 0.9>1.6 SEP 0.8>1.5 OCT 0.9>1.6
DL CVG-MCO OCT 2>1.4
DL CVG-MKE JUN 1.4>0.9 JUL 1.3>0.7 AUG 1.6>0.9 SEP 1.5>0.8 OCT 1.5>0.8
DL CVG-ORD JUN 4>5 JUL 3>4 AUG 4>5 OCT 4>5
DL MEM-CVG MAY 1.5>0.7 JUN 1.6>0.8 JUL 1.3>0.7 AUG 1.6>0.9 SEP 1.5>0.8 OCT 1.5>0.8

It appears that these changes mostly push CRJ-200 frequencies out of the schedule. A bunch of aircraft changes are taking place in May (which the OAG does not look at). Delta is removing CRJ-200's going to DTW/MSP plus adding mainline to Minneapolis, Denver, Washington DC, and Detroit. Just a comparison, Delta will have 7,156 seats per weekday at CVG, this June they will have 7,686. Its unfortunate that CVG is losing frequency on a few routes, but at least its offset by increases of frequency and seats.

It's great to see DL growing at CVG. With there being an announcement at CVG next week, I hope this means we'll see some new DL routes.

enilria wrote:

UA IAH-AMA JUL 4>3
UA IAH-AUS SEP 11>10 OCT 11>10
UA IAH-ELP SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5
UA IAH-HRL SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
UA IAH-LBB JUL 4>3 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA IAH-SAT JUN 10>9 JUL 10>9

With the exception of LBB, cuts to quite a few intra-Texas markets.

knope2001 wrote:

Thanks as always for the time and effort to compile and share this stuff...

enilria wrote:

I've given up trying to figure out what is truly new and what is extended. Anybody want to tackle that?

Those are all existing markets being pushed out. I don't think they have anything up for rebid they are losing. Massena NY has requested them over Cape Air in the new bid but I haven't seen anything official yet.

Knope, are any cities in Nebraska or South Dakota served by other airlines up for rebid this year? It would make a lot of sense for them to add a city in either Nebraska or South Dakota, and serve it from both MSP and DEN, so they can bridge the aircraft used on MSP-TVF back to the rest of their system.

knope2001 wrote:

Those are all existing markets being pushed out. I don't think they have anything up for rebid they are losing. Massena NY has requested them over Cape Air in the new bid but I haven't seen anything official yet.

Thanks for explanation.

knope2001 wrote:

Thanks as always for the time and effort to compile and share this stuff...

chrisair wrote:

They needed year-round service to take advantage of the revenue guarantee from the Tucson Airport Authority.

It's actually from the Chamber of Commerce. Airports can't offer revenue guarantees, but otherwise good catch on that.

msycajun wrote:

It's great to see DL growing at CVG. With there being an announcement at CVG next week, I hope this means we'll see some new DL routes.

I have been looking at the changes and there are some serious flaws in this update schedule for CVG. It might be a massive expansion that is currently hidden (as we have been predicting, there is some kind of announcement on Thursday at CVG), I doubt its a misfile. Many of the CRJ-200 flights do not add up, with large gaps at CVG between flights. They use to fit perfectly, with 30-45 min. stops at each city, now a lot of the flights do not fit. See this Google doc:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1aZN ... sp=sharing.

WA707atMSP wrote:

Knope, are any cities in Nebraska or South Dakota served by other airlines up for rebid this year? It would make a lot of sense for them to add a city in either Nebraska or South Dakota, and serve it from both MSP and DEN, so they can bridge the aircraft used on MSP-TVF back to the rest of their system.

Nothing comes to mind which would allow them to link their MSP operation to Denver. Most markets either have RJ service which they wouldn't give up (Grand Island, Jamestown, Watertown, Pierre, Aberdeen, Devil's Lake) or are out of the EAS program (Huron, Brookings, Norfolk).

I suspect that when there's an island route like TVF-MSP they rotate the aircraft into the main fleet periodically as needed rather than committing to a scheduled flight. Say they were awarded Fort Dodge IA with FOD-MSP flights. They could run a bridge flight between Fort Dodge and McCook to rotate the aircraft in and out, something like MSP-FOD-MCK-DEN. But could there be anywhere near enough Fort Dodge-Denver or McCook-Minneapolis thru passengers to justify flying that 370-mile unsubsidized leg each day? More likely they simply fly a non-scheduled flight now and then to swap an aircraft as needed.

In an ideal world they'd find an intermediate city like Watertown to fly subsizied EAS flying to both DEN and MSP, but there just doesn't seem to be a likely candidate to fit the bill.

Interesting that AS is moving from 8x to 10x SEA-SFO...are they freeing up VX aircraft for new flying out of SFO or LAX?

enilria wrote:

*NK BDL-FLL JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*NK BDL-MCO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK cutting back their G4-style marekts. Not where we thought they'd be headed.
NK IAG-MCO JUN 0.8>0.6
NK MCO-PBG JUN 0.7>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.5 SEP 0.2>0.1

Quite surprised that MCO-IAG/PBG aren't working out. IAG/PBG-FLL/MYR have been going strong for 7 years almost. Either way 1) Canadians like beaches and golf more than Mickey and Harry Potter, 2) Allegiant beat them to the Orlando party and there is only room for one, or 3) The routes are doing fine but those planes can do better elsewhere.

Highly doubt there is some sort of "massive" CVG expansion by DL. However it does appear to some adjustment in frequency/seats/gauge that results in a net increase in seats.

Interesting to see that CVG-DEN is scheduled to be flown with a 717 this summer.

RE: Sun County to SEA

I think they must have had something going on to zero out SEA. As far as I know, I believe they have been operating in SEA for years.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Highly doubt there is some sort of "massive" CVG expansion by DL. However it does appear to some adjustment in frequency/seats/gauge that results in a net increase in seats.

Interesting to see that CVG-DEN is scheduled to be flown with a 717 this summer.

If Delta resumes even a few destinations at the reported announcement this Thursday, it would be a pretty massive move by DL. I guess its all relative though, something similar would be no big deal at a much larger hub like DTW/ATL/MSP/ect. Based on what I have heard/seen, its suggested that DL might add back PDX/SAN/MSY/AUS (Also JAX/GRR/PIT/RIC/MSN have been discussed as good routes to resume, but they have not been mentioned specifically), LHR with the additional slots, and overall frequency increases (that is what I was getting at with the doc). If this actually happens, I would call that very massive. The other possibilities are that its NK/B6 adding service, or an expansion by G4/F9, but there is a "big announcement" (according to CVG Airport) of some kind next week. Most indications have pointed to DL thus far, but of course we will not know until Thursday.

cvgComair wrote:

msycajun wrote:

It's great to see DL growing at CVG. With there being an announcement at CVG next week, I hope this means we'll see some new DL routes.

I have been looking at the changes and there are some serious flaws in this update schedule for CVG. It might be a massive expansion that is currently hidden (as we have been predicting, there is some kind of announcement on Thursday at CVG), I doubt its a misfile. Many of the CRJ-200 flights do not add up, with large gaps at CVG between flights. They use to fit perfectly, with 30-45 min. stops at each city, now a lot of the flights do not fit. See this Google doc:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1aZN ... sp=sharing.

Your Google doc has a ton of flaws in its logic, with planes only doing out and backs being the primary concern.

To start with, the BNA-CVG route you mention. During that "bank" around 815a arrivals, there are 2 CRJ-200s coming in - BNA and MKE. There are two CRJ-200s in the corresponding departure bank - to BWI and MCI.

Likewise, the CVG-RDU (next one mentioned): while the plane does have a decent sit in RDU, that plane can easily make up RDU-PHL or RDU-BWI around lunchtime.

Then, XNA on the CR7 - that plane will continue onto MSP in the current schedule.

deltairlines wrote:

Your Google doc has a ton of flaws in its logic, with planes only doing out and backs being the primary concern.

To start with, the BNA-CVG route you mention. During that "bank" around 815a arrivals, there are 2 CRJ-200s coming in - BNA and MKE. There are two CRJ-200s in the corresponding departure bank - to BWI and MCI.

Likewise, the CVG-RDU (next one mentioned): while the plane does have a decent sit in RDU, that plane can easily make up RDU-PHL or RDU-BWI around lunchtime.

Then, XNA on the CR7 - that plane will continue onto MSP in the current schedule.

I see your point, I am modifying it right now to fix the problem on non-out-and back, instead comparing how many CRJ-200's arrive and depart each bank.

On RDU and XNA I specifically stated that they spent time at RDU and XNA to do other flights, but the same kind of aircraft (not necessarily the same one), comes back through XNA/RDU in the evening.

knope2001 wrote:

WA707atMSP wrote:

Knope, are any cities in Nebraska or South Dakota served by other airlines up for rebid this year? It would make a lot of sense for them to add a city in either Nebraska or South Dakota, and serve it from both MSP and DEN, so they can bridge the aircraft used on MSP-TVF back to the rest of their system.

Nothing comes to mind which would allow them to link their MSP operation to Denver. Most markets either have RJ service which they wouldn't give up (Grand Island, Jamestown, Watertown, Pierre, Aberdeen, Devil's Lake) or are out of the EAS program (Huron, Brookings, Norfolk).

I suspect that when there's an island route like TVF-MSP they rotate the aircraft into the main fleet periodically as needed rather than committing to a scheduled flight. Say they were awarded Fort Dodge IA with FOD-MSP flights. They could run a bridge flight between Fort Dodge and McCook to rotate the aircraft in and out, something like MSP-FOD-MCK-DEN. But could there be anywhere near enough Fort Dodge-Denver or McCook-Minneapolis thru passengers to justify flying that 370-mile unsubsidized leg each day? More likely they simply fly a non-scheduled flight now and then to swap an aircraft as needed.

In an ideal world they'd find an intermediate city like Watertown to fly subsizied EAS flying to both DEN and MSP, but there just doesn't seem to be a likely candidate to fit the bill.

Okay, that makes a lot of sense - thanks for the explanation!

Are Huron, Brookings, and Norfolk out of the EAS program for good, or is there a chance they could be reinstated? It's a real shame Great Lakes' problems caused so many passengers to stop flying that the cities lost their air service.

cvgComair wrote:

If Delta resumes even a few destinations at the reported announcement this Thursday, it would be a pretty massive move by DL. I guess its all relative though, something similar would be no big deal at a much larger hub like DTW/ATL/MSP/ect. Based on what I have heard/seen, its suggested that DL might add back PDX/SAN/MSY/AUS (Also JAX/GRR/PIT/RIC/MSN have been discussed as good routes to resume, but they have not been mentioned specifically), LHR with the additional slots, and overall frequency increases (that is what I was getting at with the doc). If this actually happens, I would call that very massive. The other possibilities are that its NK/B6 adding service, or an expansion by G4/F9, but there is a "big announcement" (according to CVG Airport) of some kind next week. Most indications have pointed to DL thus far, but of course we will not know until Thursday.

DL will not be announcing major expansion at CVG. Most of the communities you mentioned have very little local traffic and limited service from DTW; most survived at CVG for so long simply because of the size of the 50-seat fleet. But the destinations were eliminated along with the 50-seaters and like the 50-seaters, they aren't coming back.

At best, a DL announced would simply be a PR move to counter WN's momentum: 'Delta Air Lines remains committed to serving Cincinnati as its #1 airline. Beginning this spring, look for additional frequencies to ______, two-cabin aircraft to _________, etc.'

FWIW, this summer DL's going from ~7000 average weekday seats to ~7500, but most of the capacity increases are to its hubs, lead by ATL which gets an 8th flight, operated with a 739 no less.

compensateme wrote:

DL will not be announcing major expansion at CVG. Most of the communities you mentioned have very little local traffic and limited service from DTW; most survived at CVG for so long simply because of the size of the 50-seat fleet. But the destinations were eliminated along with the 50-seaters and like the 50-seaters, they aren't coming back.

At best, a DL announced would simply be a PR move to counter WN's momentum: 'Delta Air Lines remains committed to serving Cincinnati as its #1 airline. Beginning this spring, look for additional frequencies to ______, two-cabin aircraft to _________, etc.'

FWIW, this summer DL's going from ~7000 average weekday seats to ~7500, but most of the capacity increases are to its hubs, lead by ATL which gets an 8th flight, operated with a 739 no less.

Actually, the ATL route is adding an MD-80 on the other frequency and the CVG-ATL route has actually taken a seat count hit as all the MD-90's have been removed from the route, so year-over-year, ATL is actually barely increasing in seats. Most of the seat rises are on flights to DCA/DEN/ORD/BDL/XNA and hubs DTW/MSP.

A +7% increase is a huge change against the -28.7% cuts in 2006, or the routine -5 to -15% cuts in other years since Delta's bankruptcy. I think everyone (including myself) expected CVG to be like PIT/STL/MEM/CLE and be fully de-hubbed. When is the last time those cities saw any increase in flights by their previous hub airline? It's not about local traffic in the little cities, CVG is not a connecting hub anymore. Many of these regional routes are supported by the businesses in Cincinnati, none of these routes are in competition to DTW as a hub (Its funny all the DTW editors are going after CVG possibly seeing DL increases ). Look at CVG-XNA, which is being up-gauged to a CRJ-700 in May, XNA is not even serviced from DTW. If DL were to add routes, there is no doubt they are trying to secure their grip on the Cincinnati business community. A "PR" move like you suggest would be very beneficial and is what I am talking about when I say expansion. Most of the routes I suggested (that have been rumored by other users and sources outside Airliner's.net) are based on Cincinnati companies:
PDX - Strong Connections with Kroger
GRR - Strong Connections with GE Aviation
LHR - Strong Connections with P&G with GE/DHL Cargo Opportunities (Its a stretch for sure, I personally have doubts, but it has been rumored)
SAN - Largest Underserved West Coast Market from CVG, West Coast Routes are Doing Really Well from CVG
MSY/AUS/PIT - Business Markets, Sparsely Served by Current Carriers
If you look at the doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1aZN ... sp=sharing, an extra CRJ-200 will need to be overnighting at CVG and there are some slots where more flights could be added with the CRJ-200's scheduled to operate from CVG.

I am not saying that a Delta announcement IS happening, I am just saying that it may happen and there have been some signs to suggest it. Just like its absurd to say a huge downsizing will happen at DTW when DL cuts a few small routes, DTW is a successful hub and will see future adds, but CVG is also a successful hub (O&D market) and can also see adds.

If it is indeed DL, I agree it will be more of a PR move like compensateme indicated that is more of comment of some increased capacity here and there and additional 2-class or mainline aircraft. Not some "massive" expansion as some are wishing/thinking/hoping. No way DL is going to add more service at CVG in Summer 2017 than they are planning to do at SEA.

Not surprised AA is suspending JFK-TUS. This route would be seasonal at best and AA can't seem to make anything work ex-JFK outside of LHR, GRU, LAX, SFO, EZE, and a few other destinations.

Cointrin330 wrote:

Not surprised AA is suspending JFK-TUS. This route would be seasonal at best and AA can't seem to make anything work ex-JFK outside of LHR, GRU, LAX, SFO, EZE, and a few other destinations.

"A few other destinations" ... like ANU, AUS, BCN, BDA, BNA, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLE, CLT, CMH, CUN, CVG, DCA, DFW, DUB, EDI, EGE, FCO, GIG, IND, LAS, MAD, MAN, MCO, MIA, MXP, ORD, ORF, PAP, PHX, PIT, PLS, PUJ, RDU, SAN, SEA, SJU, SKB, STT, SXM, YUL, YYZ and ZRH



AA is no Delta or even JetBlue at JFK ... there's no debating that. But I'd hardly call nearly 100 daily departures to nearly 50 nonstop destinations (throughout the year, some seasonal) in line with "AA can't seem to make anything work."

WA707atMSP wrote:

knope2001 wrote:

WA707atMSP wrote:

Are Huron, Brookings, and Norfolk out of the EAS program for good, or is there a chance they could be reinstated? It's a real shame Great Lakes' problems caused so many passengers to stop flying that the cities lost their air service.

Once you're out, you're out. And no new cities get to come in anymore, either. The only (apparent) exception is that if a city already in EAS has a carrier willing to serve it without subsidy, if that carrier later withdraws the subsidy-free service the subsidy can resume. This happened most recently at Dickinson ND.

cvgComair wrote:

Actually, the ATL route is adding an MD-80 on the other frequency and the CVG-ATL route has actually taken a seat count hit as all the MD-90's have been removed from the route, so year-over-year, ATL is actually barely increasing in seats. Most of the seat rises are on flights to DCA/DEN/ORD/BDL/XNA and hubs DTW/MSP.

ATL, actual peak summer 16: 2x320, 4xM88, M90
ATL, planned peak summer 17: 320, 3xM88, 3x738, 739

That's an increase of approximately 200 seats, which is almost half of CVG's YOY capacity gains.

FWIW, YOY seat increases for the markets you mentioned: DCA (+10), DEN (+34), ORD (+70), BLD (0), XNA (+15), DTW (-10), MSP (+28).

A +7% increase is a huge change against the -28.7% cuts in 2006, or the routine -5 to -15% cuts in other years since Delta's bankruptcy. I think everyone (including myself) expected CVG to be like PIT/STL/MEM/CLE and be fully de-hubbed. When is the last time those cities saw any increase in flights by their previous hub airline? It's not about local traffic in the little cities, CVG is not a connecting hub anymore. Many of these regional routes are supported by the businesses in Cincinnati, none of these routes are in competition to DTW as a hub (Its funny all the DTW editors are going after CVG possibly seeing DL increases ).

(1) It's been three years since we've last significant reductions from CVG; capacity has grown/been stable in that time period;
(2) You're completely ignoring that WN, an airline with a strong reputation among leisure & business travelers, just announced service to CVG;
(3) Most importantly: There will be significant shrinkage in DL's 50-seat fleet this year, and it shows at CVG -- the number of 50-seaters scheduled in the summer is almost half of the prior year. This is the primary reason for the upgauging; DL tends to make significant changes to its regional schedules as the operating date closes in. It's only January -- you'll undoubtedly see adjustments (e.g. IAH, which operated as a CR9 last year and is scheduled as 2xCR9 this year, might end up being 2xCR7).

Here's the thing: you posted earlier that you've been hearing about a big CVG expansion and even if just a few of the cities that you've heard about happen, it'll be huge. You even discuss the prospects of LHR. I tend to discuss things that interest me and that's primarily DL since I fly it so much (for obvious reasons); I find it amusing how -- when I'm the only person who's mentioning facts -- people blame it on my "relationship" with DTW.

Kroger's owned Frey Meyer's since the late 1990s and DL operated CVG/PDX twice daily until the late 2000s; simultaneously, NW operated seasonal once daily DTW/PDX service. In spite of a decade of Kroger's ownership, CVG/PDX was a small market -- much, much smaller than DTW. DTW has only went year-round in recent years and on average, the single nonstop flight carries 20% of the local market. The other 80% is much larger than CVG, but in spite of this, you claimed it was a market you've heard about DL re-entering. From a rational perspective, do you think DL's going to resume CVG -- which has a fraction of the feed and local market as DTW -- over a second frequency from the latter? I might be bias, but that doesn't mean I can't call out B.S. .

These changes are merely an annual response to market conditions and a decrease in 50-seat flying. I wouldn't be surprised if DL plays the PR game: 'We remain committed to being #1 at CVG; we've added frequency to _______, we've added two-class cabins to _____________, we're going year-round to SEA and daily to LAS." But that's merely a response to WN's momentum in the market.

,,,an extra CRJ-200 will need to be overnighting at CVG and there are some slots where more flights could be added with the CRJ-200's scheduled to operate from CVG.

That's some really, really false logic. DL's schedules are ALWAYS incomplete when looking at months out -- equipment and regional operating carriers will almost never tie-out. But you can't make any assumptions from that, other than DL will correct it later.

Due to the loss of the AS code share, AA is up gauging LAX-SEA. Effective 5/5/17 the schedule will have 1X 175, 1X 738 and 3X 319.

Cointrin330 wrote:

Not surprised AA is suspending JFK-TUS. This route would be seasonal at best and AA can't seem to make anything work ex-JFK outside of LHR, GRU, LAX, SFO, EZE, and a few other destinations.

Kudos to TAA even getting AA's ear to start this route because on the surface it's laughable with a 160-seat 738. Maybe a 319 - and with DL who has at least better connection possibilities at JFK. But if JetBlue couldn't make it work a few years ago, good luck. Reminds me of UA trying TUS-IAD several years ago on a 319. Didn't last long.

DL is notorious for having numerous scheduling irregularities of aircraft type, DCI carriers, and "default" schedules that don't align with rational tail or crew routings more than 3 months in advance.

Kroger's owned Frey Meyer's since the late 1990s and DL operated CVG/PDX twice daily until the late 2000s; simultaneously, NW operated seasonal once daily DTW/PDX service. In spite of a decade of Kroger's ownership, CVG/PDX was a small market -- much, much smaller than DTW. DTW has only went year-round in recent years and on average, the single nonstop flight carries 20% of the local market. The other 80% is much larger than CVG, but in spite of this, you claimed it was a market you've heard about DL re-entering. From a rational perspective, do you think DL's going to resume CVG -- which has a fraction of the feed and local market as DTW -- over a second frequency from the latter? I might be bias, but that doesn't mean I can't call out B.S. .

FYI...it's FRED MEYER and DL filled M11's PDX-CVG daily back then.

cvgComair wrote:

enilria wrote:

A little CVG reshuffle. Net -1.
DL CVG-ATL MAY 7>8
DL CVG-BNA MAY 1.5>0.7 JUN 1.6>0.8 JUL 1.3>0.7 AUG 1.6>0.8 SEP 1.5>0.7 OCT 1.5>0.8
DL CVG-IAH MAY 0.8>1.5 JUN 0.9>1.6 JUL 0.7>1.4 AUG 0.9>1.6 SEP 0.8>1.5 OCT 0.9>1.6
DL CVG-MCO OCT 2>1.4
DL CVG-MKE JUN 1.4>0.9 JUL 1.3>0.7 AUG 1.6>0.9 SEP 1.5>0.8 OCT 1.5>0.8
DL CVG-ORD JUN 4>5 JUL 3>4 AUG 4>5 OCT 4>5
DL MEM-CVG MAY 1.5>0.7 JUN 1.6>0.8 JUL 1.3>0.7 AUG 1.6>0.9 SEP 1.5>0.8 OCT 1.5>0.8

It appears that these changes mostly push CRJ-200 frequencies out of the schedule. A bunch of aircraft changes are taking place in May (which the OAG does not look at). Delta is removing CRJ-200's going to DTW/MSP plus adding mainline to Minneapolis, Denver, Washington DC, and Detroit. Just a comparison, Delta will have 7,156 seats per weekday at CVG, this June they will have 7,686. Its unfortunate that CVG is losing frequency on a few routes, but at least its offset by increases of frequency and seats.

With those seat counts are you doing a year-over-year comparison or a January 2017 to June 2017 comparison? If it's the latter, that's a rather meaningless comparison.

Beechtobus wrote:

enilria wrote:

*NK BDL-FLL JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*NK BDL-MCO MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK cutting back their G4-style marekts. Not where we thought they'd be headed.
NK IAG-MCO JUN 0.8>0.6
NK MCO-PBG JUN 0.7>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.5 SEP 0.2>0.1

Quite surprised that MCO-IAG/PBG aren't working out. IAG/PBG-FLL/MYR have been going strong for 7 years almost. Either way 1) Canadians like beaches and golf more than Mickey and Harry Potter, 2) Allegiant beat them to the Orlando party and there is only room for one, or 3) The routes are doing fine but those planes can do better elsewhere.

I think the U.S. elections might be scaring away some Canadian leisure pax from the U.S. at the moment. Look at WS' changes. All of the cutbacks are on leisure routes. The only adds (LAX, SFO & DFW) are on more business-oriented routes. These are on top of other recent WS transborder leisure route cutbacks.

[

FYI...it's FRED MEYER and DL filled M11's PDX-CVG daily back then.

But not with local traffic. And it was partially a typo although we refer to Kroger as Kroger's.

It's frustrating to see another attempt at NYC-TUS go belly up. I know the airport authority and chamber of commerce spent a long time trying to work the details out, but TUS just doesn't have enough year round business activity to warrant non stops on the east coast.

I hope in the future that TUS can try and nab a few cities in the east coast for seasonal service.

I am not going to continue going back in forth when I personally do not believe all these routes are starting as well. I am merely making an observation of the frequency changes and that it might legitimize the rumors I have been hearing about an upcoming DL expansion. I am not writing which routes I think/want to come back, these are projections I have heard on this forum and in news articles. I for one think this Thursday's announcement will be F9/G4 expansion or NK/B6 starting service at CVG, not a big upgauge in DL service. There IS AN ANOUNCEMENT AT CVG, IT WAS REPORTED LAST WEEK IN THE NEWS, but DL is just merely a suggestion in the array of possibilities. Also, when DL's CVG operation is almost exclusively catered towards the business market of Cincinnati, I think a Feb 2017 to June 2017 comparison is legitimate. For instance, comparing Delta November 2015 to November 2016, year over year passenger increase was 7.1%, so I think it's reasonable to assume my comparison is close. (http://www.cvgairport.com/about/news/20 ... -continues). The point is that DL is willing to upgrade the aircraft on routes and increase frequency in a city they have cut almost 600 daily flights from. Year over year, Delta has increased its passenger numbers at CVG no matter how you look at it, however small the increase is. Airports besides mega-hubs can see more flights and recently Delta has added the second fewest seats at CVG compared to all other carriers. Air Canada, Allegiant, Frontier, and United have dramatically increased their offerings, American is soon to follow with them adding mainline service, and Southwest will undoubtedly expand as well. Unless Delta plans on abandoning the market as a small hub, which is not entirely clear at the moment, the need to do something to keep business customers. Southwest has already made deals with local companies, obviously Delta is not doing enough. That is why I think you cannot discount a small Delta expansion, but again I think it's unlikely to be the extent some have suggested, if at all.

He is right about AA at JFK.

The list you post is disingenouous in that while factual, it masks the fact that everything served meets ONE of the following condiditions:

1. Outside the LGA perimeter

2. Hub to Hub

3. International

4. Eagle low frequency for intl connections


There are only 2 outside the box domestic routes from JFK and both cater to heavily trafficed leisure routes...MCO and LAS

TUS was an odd ball route for AA at JFK. It would be almost as odd to see a DEN or MSY from them tomorrow. Just doesn't

I believe UA (or CO) tried EWR-TUS. No one reason to think JFK would be better on AA. Didn't B6 do TUS as well? Are they still in the market? I remember that JFK also tried JFK to IAH as well. Not relevant to TUS but still interesting.

For what it’s worth to the discussion on CVG-PDX and Kroger’s ownership of Fred Meyer in Portland, Kroger bought Milwaukee-based Roundy’s (Pick n Save & Mariano’s) about a year ago and operates it as a separate division just as Fred Meyer is. Roundy’s is not as large a division as the Fred Meyer division, but Fred Meyer has been Kroger for 15+ years and is stable. The bulk of the big integration of the Roundy’s division is taking place in 2017 with lots of associated travel between Cincinnati and Wisconsin. Yet this very week Delta pulled back on restoring the 2nd daily CVG-MKE RJ flight for summer which had been penciled in.

Business ties between communities are not completely meaningless in assessing the viability of a city pair, but they only go so far.

miaami wrote:

Due to the loss of the AS code share, AA is up gauging LAX-SEA. Effective 5/5/17 the schedule will have 1X 175, 1X 738 and 3X 319.

Is that an upgauge? I thought it was always a mix of 175, 738 and 319.

n7371f wrote:

Kudos to TAA even getting AA's ear to start this route because on the surface it's laughable with a 160-seat 738. Maybe a 319 - and with DL who has at least better connection possibilities at JFK. But if JetBlue couldn't make it work a few years ago, good luck. Reminds me of UA trying TUS-IAD several years ago on a 319. Didn't last long.

Again, I'm not sure JFK-TUS is all that laughable in peak season. TUS is a market like PSP, EGE, JAC, etc. that, I suspect, caters to a decent amount of fairly high-yielding NYC O&D - but that drops off a cliff in the summer. I don't know if JFK-TUS will ultimately work long-term, but if it does, it seems rational to me that it would be winter seasonal, freeing up that prime time slot for use elsewhere in a market that alternatively peaks in the summer.

jfklganyc wrote:

He is right about AA at JFK.

The list you post is disingenouous in that while factual, it masks the fact that everything served meets ONE of the following condiditions:

1. Outside the LGA perimeter

2. Hub to Hub

3. International

4. Eagle low frequency for intl connections

So in other words - not the same thing as "AA can't seem to make anything work." My post was not disingenuous at all. AA clearly can make markets work out of JFK that are (1) outside the LGA perimeter, (2) hubs, (3) international, or (4) short haul feed for (1), (2) or (3). As said - AA is no Delta or JetBlue at JFK. But nearly 100 daily flights to nearly 50 nonstop destinations is clearly different than "AA can't seem to make anything work ex-JFK outside of LHR, GRU, LAX, SFO, EZE, and a few other destinations."

enilria wrote:

LA MCO-SCL JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3

This caught my eye since this route is supposed to by two times weekly seasonal service ending March 1st. So is LATAM extending the service?

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

Suspended till Christmas
*AA JFK-TUS MAY 1.0>0.1 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0

Hardly surprising. JFK-TUS definitely seems like more of a winter route - I was actually surprised it was ever scheduled during the summer. This seems like an easy and obvious opportunity - similar to EGE - to optimize a prime JFK slot pair for one use in one place during summer and for another use in another place (TUS) when that market's demand peaks in winter. Interestingly it looks like the route does operate for a very brief stint - four days - in mid-October.

The problem with TUS isn't so much seasonality. There are 1 million people in the metro area. Airlines depend on a pretty high percentage of full fare business travelers year around. The problem is that TUS lacks any significant business travel, so although the load factors might be 70-80%, the ratio of discount fares to full fares is out of balance, as far as the airlines are concerned. It was the same issue when JetBlue flew TUS-JFK, and Continental flew TUS-EWR.

azstar wrote:

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

Suspended till Christmas
*AA JFK-TUS MAY 1.0>0.1 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0

Hardly surprising. JFK-TUS definitely seems like more of a winter route - I was actually surprised it was ever scheduled during the summer. This seems like an easy and obvious opportunity - similar to EGE - to optimize a prime JFK slot pair for one use in one place during summer and for another use in another place (TUS) when that market's demand peaks in winter. Interestingly it looks like the route does operate for a very brief stint - four days - in mid-October.

The problem with TUS isn't so much seasonality. There are 1 million people in the metro area. Airlines depend on a pretty high percentage of full fare business travelers year around. The problem is that TUS lacks any significant business travel, so although the load factors might be 70-80%, the ratio of discount fares to full fares is out of balance, as far as the airlines are concerned. It was the same issue when JetBlue flew TUS-JFK, and Continental flew TUS-EWR.

TUS has a pretty significant amount of bleed of traffic to PHX. The Arizona shuttle + PHX option is one a lot of TUS based flyers use.

PHX - NYC has:

AA: 3-4x JFK, 3x EWR
B6: 1x JFK
DL: 2-3x JFK
UA: 2x EWR
WN: 1x EWR

cvgComair wrote:

I am not going to continue going back in forth when I personally do not believe all these routes are starting as well. I am merely making an observation of the frequency changes and that it might legitimize the rumors I have been hearing about an upcoming DL expansion.

Here's the thing: this is a discussion forum, you just dropped the bombshell of rumors of a major DL expansion at CVG and even stated "if Delta resumes even a few destinations ... it would be a pretty massive move by DL;" I think the topic is worthy of discussion. You've brought up a wide array of destinations -- everything from RIC to LHR -- many of these places lack the local traffic to fill up even a 32-seat FRJ (remember those?); you're insinuating (both explicitly and implicitly) that DL's rebooting the CVG hub on a small scale basis.

I've provided reasons as to why won't happen:
-- The fleet of 50-seat jets is shrinking -> this is why many of these changes (upgauging) are occurring to begin with;
-- CVG lacks the local traffic and feed to serve these places;
-- There's oddles of terminal capacity, more feed and more places to connect to at DTW, MSP & NYC.

I'm curious as to the source of these rumors, or any credible argument you could make as to why DL would re-boot the hub (albeit on a small scale basis). The only thing you've offered is that there's big gaps in DL's future schedules -- that's just foolhardy logic given that DL's future schedules never tie out. Equipment, flight times & DCI operating carriers always change as the schedule finalizes.

There IS AN ANOUNCEMENT AT CVG, IT WAS REPORTED LAST WEEK IN THE NEWS, but DL is just merely a suggestion in the array of possibilities.

Hopefully the announcement is something significant or meaningful, like new service from NK and/or B6. But you've maintained several times that the announcement is related to DL, and appears to be a "big expansion," which I've questioned. If the announcement is related to DL, I wouldn't expect it to be anything more than a PR move to highlight service changes.

Also, when DL's CVG operation is almost exclusively catered towards the business market of Cincinnati, I think a Feb 2017 to June 2017 comparison is legitimate. For instance, comparing Delta November 2015 to November 2016, year over year passenger increase was 7.1%, so I think it's reasonable to assume my comparison is close. (http://www.cvgairport.com/about/news/20 ... -continues). The point is that DL is willing to upgrade the aircraft on routes and increase frequency in a city they have cut almost 600 daily flights from. Year over year, Delta has increased its passenger numbers at CVG no matter how you look at it, however small the increase is. Airports besides mega-hubs can see more flights and recently Delta has added the second fewest seats at CVG compared to all other carriers. Air Canada, Allegiant, Frontier, and United have dramatically increased their offerings, American is soon to follow with them adding mainline service, and Southwest will undoubtedly expand as well. Unless Delta plans on abandoning the market as a small hub, which is not entirely clear at the moment, the need to do something to keep business customers. Southwest has already made deals with local companies, obviously Delta is not doing enough. That is why I think you cannot discount a small Delta expansion, but again I think it's unlikely to be the extent some have suggested, if at all.

It isn't surprising CVG's numbers are up, low cost competition will do that. Look at LAS, where F9's average fare is barely 30% that of DL's prior to F9/G6's entry into the market. Obviously DL had to lower its fares to remain competitive -- the average has dropped 50% and as a result, DL carries significantly more traffic. ATL, DTW & MSP are now garnering a 20% higher average DL fare than CVG -- a sharp change from yesteryear.

DL will attempt to maintain its hold on CVG, but if average airfares are free falling, and -- according to you -- other airlines are grabbing significant corporate contracts, the points to a restructuring of the DL network that's more focused on its hubs, and an eventual decrease in capacity elsewhere. And that's kinda what we're seeing here.

compensateme wrote:

DL will attempt to maintain its hold on CVG, but if average airfares are free falling, and -- according to you -- other airlines are grabbing significant corporate contracts, the points to a restructuring of the DL network that's more focused on its hubs, and an eventual decrease in capacity elsewhere. And that's kinda what we're seeing here.

It's not according to just him. http://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/2 ... /96242476/

compensateme wrote:

DL will attempt to maintain its hold on CVG, but if average airfares are free falling, and -- according to you -- other airlines are grabbing significant corporate contracts, the points to a restructuring of the DL network that's more focused on its hubs, and an eventual decrease in capacity elsewhere. And that's kinda what we're seeing here.

If anything, Delta has branched out over the years, historically being a very hub-centered airline (which they pioneered with ATL). A couple of years ago, Delta did not consider LAX, SEA, and BOS to be hubs, now Delta's News website is filled with information about these three cities. Delta has also created "focus cities" in RDU and MCO, plus has been pushing routes from non-hubs like DCA/MIA/CUN/LAS. CVG may be a hub in name, but it's a comparable operation to MCO and RDU. It doesn't look like DL is just focusing on its largest hubs (ATL, SLC, LGA, JFK, MSP, and DTW), rather the opposite. Two of its largest hubs hubs (DTW and MSP) really have not seen many adds, instead Delta is focusing its expansion in these smaller hubs and focus cities. Meanwhile LAX is seeing a terminal renovation, SEA is going up to 160 daily flights, and BOS is seeing a bunch of carribean/domestic routes added. That does not look like an airline focused on its main hubs.

AirportRival wrote:

It's not according to just him. http://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/2 ... /96242476/

Thank you, I was looking for that article. As it states, Kroger wants a CVG-PDX route, but since no carrier is going to add a nonstop flight, they are going to go with the cheapest carrier (Southwest). Delta has lowered its prices, but they are not going to win a pricing battle at CVG, so their only way to keep the business community is to add the routes they want. When the time comes that DL can no longer add the necessary routes or win price battles, then we will see reductions. It's possible we have already hit that point, as the cities that would need to be added next are PDX/SAN/LHR/RIC/PIT/GRR, which you have proven quite well, are probably not feasible.

Another forum is saying that F9 is announcing routes from CVG/CLE tomorrow, so I guess that must be the announcement we have been arguing about.

AirportRival wrote:

compensateme wrote:

DL will attempt to maintain its hold on CVG, but if average airfares are free falling, and -- according to you -- other airlines are grabbing significant corporate contracts, the points to a restructuring of the DL network that's more focused on its hubs, and an eventual decrease in capacity elsewhere. And that's kinda what we're seeing here.

It's not according to just him. http://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/2 ... /96242476/

"How did CVG get WN?"
By taking them away from DAY. In more detail, WN is busy erasing much of their acquisition of FL. This was just one more "bad Air Tran decision" they erased along with CAK. BTW, I don't agree these were bad FL decisions, but I suppose it may also be that FL and WN were at different points in their life cycle as companies and these alternate airports generally don't fit well with large legacy airlines chasing business passengers.

n7371f wrote:

Cointrin330 wrote:

Not surprised AA is suspending JFK-TUS. This route would be seasonal at best and AA can't seem to make anything work ex-JFK outside of LHR, GRU, LAX, SFO, EZE, and a few other destinations.

Kudos to TAA even getting AA's ear to start this route because on the surface it's laughable with a 160-seat 738. Maybe a 319 - and with DL who has at least better connection possibilities at JFK. But if JetBlue couldn't make it work a few years ago, good luck. Reminds me of UA trying TUS-IAD several years ago on a 319. Didn't last long.

perhaps AA could try TUS-CLT? surprised that doesn't already exist from the US Air days, but maybe they attempted in the past and didn't work. CLT is AA's one-size-fits-all east coast hub and provides connectivity to pretty much everywhere out east, I think it might be worth a shot, especially if DL is flying TUS-ATL a few times a day.

Delta should stop calling CVG a hub. They can still cater to the O&D market, but so few connections don't make sense, I was there a couple weeks ago and there was not a single DL aircraft at the gate. They have always been a player there, but drop the hub moniker.

DFW789ER wrote:

I was there a couple weeks ago and there was not a single DL aircraft at the gate. They have always been a player there, but drop the hub moniker.

If I'm not mistaken, Delta is generally banked at CVG, meaning there would be large stretches in between banks with no DL aircraft on the ground. It's obviously a small hub, but the fact that it is banked to maximize connections is strong evidence that it is a hub.