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KarelXWB
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:33 pm

travelhound wrote:
As such, if the 778 uses 20% more fuel to do a one-stop it will still only be 3-4% less efficient than a 77W or have 2% higher trip costs. Not too bad an option considering a one stop would all have a positive impact on maintenance, airport fees and aircraft utilisation costs.


You made a comparison against the 77W but forgot to include the 779.

Thing is that a 779 will be more efficient than a 778 because a stopover comes with lower operating costs, and generates more revenue. So the reason why airlines preferred a 77W over a 77L also applies to the 779 over the 778.
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travelhound
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:44 pm

The 778 is smaller than a 77W whilst having a latest generation wing optimised for long haul flights and newer engines. I'd suggest there should be close to ~15% fuel savings on a block hour basis.

....and at this stage of the conversation I don't think we really understand the advantages of the new wing. We know Boeing added folding wing tips to achieve efficiency, but we don't know how much efficiency was actually achieved.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:59 pm

The same logic applies to the 777-9.

The 779 can easily fly 17 hours with a small payload restriction, while still generating more revenue than a 778. The 77W has proven that operating a larger jet with a small payload restriction is more efficient than ordering a bunch of ULR aircraft. Hence airlines preferred the 77W over the 77L. Unless you need to fly 20-hours non-stop or carry a lot of freight, you don't really need the 778.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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keesje
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:19 pm

I think the much higher empty weight/cost base of the 777-8 compared to the A350-900LR (>30t) might play a significant role.

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travelhound
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:37 pm

If we consider the 778 has a heavier wing for the benefit of greater efficiency, larger heavier engines to carry more real world payload and more structure, again to carry more real world payload the structural difference between the A350-1000 and 777-8 could be as low as 7 tonne.

If we consider the 787-8 wing should be more efficient than the A350's over long distances and the engines are a generation newer the gap between the two is not going to be anywhere as much as what some would expect.

I just think when we start to see these planes enter service they are going to surprise us, not just by the efficiency but how they will open up new routes up till now have not been possible!
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:28 am

TheGeordielad wrote:
If I was QF I would go for the 778 or 779 if they need capacity close to the B744ER but if they don't need the capacity but the distance they should just stick to the B789


I would agree, the 789/781 will be good for ULR but thin - PER-LHR, MEL-DFW, SYD-ORD and into Asia on thicker routes, MEL/SY-NRT, HKG etc.

The 778/779 offer a longer and stronger capacity better suited to JNB,LAX,DFW ex-SYD.

I could see 789/781 being used a lot ex-BNE/MEL and 778/779 more ex-SYD.
 
Socrates17
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:31 am

It all depends on the class, for me.
After even a TATL flight in Spanish Inquisition Class, about all I can do is lie on the floor of the hotel shivering and making pathetic beeping noises.
After trans-Pacific flights from the US East Coast, or after LHR>SIN>SYD flights with really tight connections (running between gates) in SIN, in Decadent Splendor Class, I land and I'm raring to go.
I base these on personal experience. I'd frequently land at SYD early AM after a long flight in J (not on US metal), shower at the hotel gym and put in a full day at the office, even doing IT training until after 6 PM and going out to dinner with staff afterwards.
The difference between steerage and a decent J cannot be overstated. I define East Asian J as Decadent Splendor Class. I can't even imagine what F would be like. Maybe: You Are A Deity Class? They might have to drag me off the aircraft.
Stops do NOT refresh me unless they are at least 24 hours and I get to leave the damn connecting airport and see some stuff.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:56 am

smi0006 wrote:
TheGeordielad wrote:
If I was QF I would go for the 778 or 779 if they need capacity close to the B744ER but if they don't need the capacity but the distance they should just stick to the B789


I would agree, the 789/781 will be good for ULR but thin - PER-LHR, MEL-DFW, SYD-ORD and into Asia on thicker routes, MEL/SY-NRT, HKG etc.

The 778/779 offer a longer and stronger capacity better suited to JNB,LAX,DFW ex-SYD.

I could see 789/781 being used a lot ex-BNE/MEL and 778/779 more ex-SYD.


It will be interesting to see what QF do, I think if they can do SYD-LHR with success they will do MEL-LHR aswell, then what happens to PER-LHR and potentially BNE-LHR? QF own 4 sets of slots at LHR.

I could see 10-15 778's for non stop LHR from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER plus other long routes like MEL-DFW which would allow a full load where the 789 would be restricted. Maybe add a few more in for SYD-JFK/ORD.

779 for routes like MEL/SYD-LAX in the long term assuming they don't replace the A388's with more A388's. SYD-DFW with a 779, then trunk routes currently on 744's where slots are hard to get like SYD/ MEL-HKG, SYD-HND/JNB/SFO. There's a need for 14/15 there assuming those routes are daily.

78J and 2 class J Y 789 replacing A333's into Asia mainly SYD-SIN/HKG/PVG/CGK/MNL/PEK/HNL. MEL-SIN/HKG/NRT, BNE-NRT/HKG/SIN. At current frequencies there's a need for 14/16 aircraft.

BNE-LAX, SYD-SCL, SYD-YVR could use the first batch of premium 789's? Or will they reconfigure them to and use a different aircraft?

Then what replaces the younger domestic A332's? I could see some deal for the deferred A380's being converted to A320/321 with A321's used to replace some 738 flying SYD/MEL/BNE/PER, and A320's to the smaller places, will they get the current JQ788's for peak time domestic? And JQ international get 789's?
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:38 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
TheGeordielad wrote:
If I was QF I would go for the 778 or 779 if they need capacity close to the B744ER but if they don't need the capacity but the distance they should just stick to the B789


I would agree, the 789/781 will be good for ULR but thin - PER-LHR, MEL-DFW, SYD-ORD and into Asia on thicker routes, MEL/SY-NRT, HKG etc.

The 778/779 offer a longer and stronger capacity better suited to JNB,LAX,DFW ex-SYD.

I could see 789/781 being used a lot ex-BNE/MEL and 778/779 more ex-SYD.


It will be interesting to see what QF do, I think if they can do SYD-LHR with success they will do MEL-LHR aswell, then what happens to PER-LHR and potentially BNE-LHR? QF own 4 sets of slots at LHR.

I could see 10-15 778's for non stop LHR from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER plus other long routes like MEL-DFW which would allow a full load where the 789 would be restricted. Maybe add a few more in for SYD-JFK/ORD.

779 for routes like MEL/SYD-LAX in the long term assuming they don't replace the A388's with more A388's. SYD-DFW with a 779, then trunk routes currently on 744's where slots are hard to get like SYD/ MEL-HKG, SYD-HND/JNB/SFO. There's a need for 14/15 there assuming those routes are daily.

78J and 2 class J Y 789 replacing A333's into Asia mainly SYD-SIN/HKG/PVG/CGK/MNL/PEK/HNL. MEL-SIN/HKG/NRT, BNE-NRT/HKG/SIN. At current frequencies there's a need for 14/16 aircraft.

BNE-LAX, SYD-SCL, SYD-YVR could use the first batch of premium 789's? Or will they reconfigure them to and use a different aircraft?

Then what replaces the younger domestic A332's? I could see some deal for the deferred A380's being converted to A320/321 with A321's used to replace some 738 flying SYD/MEL/BNE/PER, and A320's to the smaller places, will they get the current JQ788's for peak time domestic? And JQ international get 789's?


I agree that would make the most sense for me. But that's a big capital outlay. Timing will be interesting, when the end of year results are announced I think we'll see 4 or 5 more 789 and maybe 4 781 firmed up. With fuel costs as low as they are 744s into Asia brings much needed capacity, I act Maybe FY19 spme announcment around the 778. Or will the jump in early for discounts and firm up 787s in small batches of 2-3?
 
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 3:12 am

Yes it is a big capital expenditure, the 779's for me probably come a bit later when the A380's need to be replaced. I wonder how soon QF would need to order 778's to get 2022 deliveries? They can't wait to long surely but at the same time they will want to be sure that the 778 can do the said route which is firstly SYD-LHR.

I agree I think being QF we will see a few 787's ordered at a time, 8 789's is probably the most they will order at once, I could see an initial order for a similar number of 778's with a few more later if needed.

There is a thread on the A350-1000 where some say they could see QF ordering both 77X and A350, I can't see that with a fleet the size of QF, I'd say 300 seats SYD-LHR clearly favours the 778 with the 779 to follow and the 789 followed by the 78J. They will still have A330's and A380's for another 12/15 years.
 
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 4:31 am

With the A380's coming of lease finance over the next 3-5 years, QANTAS will have additional funds for CAPEX in new aircraft. We also have to remember these aircraft (A350/777X) will be replacing three generation old 747's and two generation old A380's and as such the CAPEX will be supplemented by other savings in fuel and maintenance costs.

We could see these aircraft generating cash in the first instance.

If we also consider international passengers typically take two domestic flights per international trip there could be a multiplier effect by attracting more passengers to QANTAS by flying these aircraft.

....and I think this is the main motivation behind the interest in these aircraft. If these aircraft allow QANTAS to control an additional 15% share of the international market, the incomes (forward bookings) could be quite substantial. If they can also attract a premium by doing so, the additional incomes could more than offset the additional finance costs to fund the purchase of the aircraft. This is a very unique position for QANTAS.
 
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 4:38 am

Question travelhound. How does QF having these new aircraft give them an extra 15% of the international market?

I get that QF will have a unique position in being the only airline to offer LHR-SYD non stop and charge a premium to do so, but where is the 15% these are smaller aircraft in a growing market. Sure they will hopefully be able to offer more PTP flying due to fuel efficiency and right sizing.
 
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 4:58 am

Turnhouse1 wrote:
Airbus can at least probably predict fuel burn etc from in service A350s, Boeing may turn out better or worse than predicted but difficult to have an opinion until there are a few flying.

It's not like there aren't nearly 1000 GE-powered 777s flying around, currently. ;)

They have a physical baseline for their calculation models. Yes different wing and better engine, but it's not like they're going in on this blind.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
redroo
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:52 am

qantas is changing their fleet over the next decade. The international network will be 787s and A380. The A330 and 747 will eventually go. The A380s will not be reordered and need to be replaced by something. It makes sense to standardise a relatively small long haul fleet on one manufacturer. This is Boeings to lose with the 778/9.

We will see a non stop from Sydney and Melbourne to London on qantas. They will command a premium for it. There are enough Aussies that would be happy to shave a few hours off the trip. And for those that don't mind a stop they can take one of a dozen ways to Europe and waste a few hours in an airport.
 
travelhound
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:21 am

At the moment QANTAS customers are booking flights on the QANTAS website to fly to Europe on other carriers.

As such, there is enough underlying demand (enquiries/bookings) for QANTAS to increase its market share by simply adding capacity.

The question for QANTAS has always been how they do this. We have already seen them restructure their operations to reduce their cost base, so in hindsight we can probably call this the first phase. The second phase will obviously revolve around adding aircraft and new routes (or re-entering old routes). The discussion about the 777X and A350 obviously revolve around this.

I think we have to remember that even though SYD-LHR is the Holy Grail, other routes to Europe (France, Germany, and Greece) will form part of the business case for the aircraft to purchase.

As such, I can't see a situation where QANTAS would buy an aircraft on the basis of one or a couple of routes. If they are looking at these aircraft, they will be evaluating them against quite a few different routes or route profiles.

And this is why I see the 778X as being the lead aircraft. It will have the capability to fly direct to quite a few European destinations, whilst at the same time giving QANTAS a unique advantage over the competition.

Even though QANTAS may only be able to generate 60% of the traffic or a particular route from its home market, I’d suggest there would be quite a few airlines lining up at the door to enter into a code share or JV arrangement to fill the aircraft.

I think my guess of 15% could be quite reasonable.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 10:57 am

Could the will to gave nostop flights underline a will from qantas to move away from EK and maybe get back on BA's good side ?
I could see people from Germany, France etc connecting to a nonstop from LHR
 
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:09 pm

travelhound wrote:
If we consider the 778 has a heavier wing for the benefit of greater efficiency, larger heavier engines to carry more real world payload and more structure, again to carry more real world payload the structural difference between the A350-1000 and 777-8 could be as low as 7 tonne.


From a load range chart by others, the payload spread is consistently 13t.
 
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:41 pm

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
Could the will to gave nostop flights underline a will from qantas to move away from EK and maybe get back on BA's good side ?
I could see people from Germany, France etc connecting to a nonstop from LHR


I very much doubt that the alliance between QF & EK will be affected. EK offers many European destinations that QF will never fly to. QF have previously mentioned that the 789 could operate non-stop flights from Australia to FRA, CDG and FCO. As noted above QF also benefits from EK with many passengers flying domestic services within Australia
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 4:43 pm

I have sat in NYC Emergency Rooms for 20+ hours and that is truly the worst. (I have often thought that even a United economy seat in an ER waiting room would be a huge upgrade from hospital furniture) I would absolutely buy the expensive business class ticket for business trips on the non-stop, for leisure, I'd carry additional Xanax and perhaps Ambien too for economy and fly non-stop. I may sound like an addict, but I never met an economy seat that Xanax can't fix!
The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
 
drgreendds
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:03 pm

I personally hope they order the 777-8/9 for the 747 replacement, considering they completely screwed Boeing on a 777 order despite being on the 777 development team.
 
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:01 pm

drgreendds wrote:
I personally hope they order the 777-8/9 for the 747 replacement, considering they completely screwed Boeing on a 777 order despite being on the 777 development team.

How did they completely screw Boeing on the 777 order? They had Australian ETOPS requirements for a start plus others I'm sure. If there was any screwing done, it was Boeing big time on very late 787 deliveries and to a slightly lesser extent Airbus with late A380's.
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Motorhussy
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:30 pm

As others have said, if QF are looking beyond SYD-LHR & SYD-JFK and include other Australian cities in the mix, then BNE/MEL-LHR should also be considered, plus the (to be) existing PER-LHR - then surely the A350 would have the advantage. The extra capacity of the 778 may not be needed and might become extra risk.

A future international QF fleet of 787's and A350's feels right and likely to me: A350-1000, A350-900LR, 787-10 and 787-9.
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:45 pm

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
Could the will to gave nostop flights underline a will from qantas to move away from EK and maybe get back on BA's good side ?
I could see people from Germany, France etc connecting to a nonstop from LHR


There is nothing stopping you booking QF SYD-LHR and BA LHR-CDG on the same ticket right now. LHR is still a permitted routing on almost all Qantas fares. They still have a substantial interline arrangement and move a lot of people between themselves everyday. What changed is that they no longer have a JBA.

Will QF ever have a JBA with BA again? Never.

Will QF move traffic onto BA over LHR? Of course, they do it everyday

Will QF terminate the JBA with EK? Highly unlikely, LHR is an awful connecting point from Australia to Europe as it is so far west. QF still need EK to fill the gaps like ATH, FCO, MAN etc that they will probably never serve on their own metal.
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Sun Apr 09, 2017 11:32 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
TheGeordielad wrote:
If I was QF I would go for the 778 or 779 if they need capacity close to the B744ER but if they don't need the capacity but the distance they should just stick to the B789


I would agree, the 789/781 will be good for ULR but thin - PER-LHR, MEL-DFW, SYD-ORD and into Asia on thicker routes, MEL/SY-NRT, HKG etc.

The 778/779 offer a longer and stronger capacity better suited to JNB,LAX,DFW ex-SYD.

I could see 789/781 being used a lot ex-BNE/MEL and 778/779 more ex-SYD.


It will be interesting to see what QF do, I think if they can do SYD-LHR with success they will do MEL-LHR aswell, then what happens to PER-LHR and potentially BNE-LHR? QF own 4 sets of slots at LHR.

I could see 10-15 778's for non stop LHR from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER plus other long routes like MEL-DFW which would allow a full load where the 789 would be restricted. Maybe add a few more in for SYD-JFK/ORD.

779 for routes like MEL/SYD-LAX in the long term assuming they don't replace the A388's with more A388's. SYD-DFW with a 779, then trunk routes currently on 744's where slots are hard to get like SYD/ MEL-HKG, SYD-HND/JNB/SFO. There's a need for 14/15 there assuming those routes are daily.

78J and 2 class J Y 789 replacing A333's into Asia mainly SYD-SIN/HKG/PVG/CGK/MNL/PEK/HNL. MEL-SIN/HKG/NRT, BNE-NRT/HKG/SIN. At current frequencies there's a need for 14/16 aircraft.

BNE-LAX, SYD-SCL, SYD-YVR could use the first batch of premium 789's? Or will they reconfigure them to and use a different aircraft?

Then what replaces the younger domestic A332's? I could see some deal for the deferred A380's being converted to A320/321 with A321's used to replace some 738 flying SYD/MEL/BNE/PER, and A320's to the smaller places, will they get the current JQ788's for peak time domestic? And JQ international get 789's?

So effectively it would be QF going down the fleet road that NZ has done.
737s - out for A320/A321. 767/A330 out for 787s, 744s out for 777s.
I guess QF might also be interested in the MoM when that comes out as it could be quite good for PER -East Coast flights and flights to places like DPS and maybe even SIN and CGK.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:07 am

Motorhussy wrote:
As others have said, if QF are looking beyond SYD-LHR & SYD-JFK and include other Australian cities in the mix, then BNE/MEL-LHR should also be considered, plus the (to be) existing PER-LHR - then surely the A350 would have the advantage. The extra capacity of the 778 may not be needed and might become extra risk.

A future international QF fleet of 787's and A350's feels right and likely to me: A350-1000, A350-900LR, 787-10 and 787-9.


Except QF have said 300 seats which the A359 won't get near over that distance, I do t no what the 778 will carry either but it's bigger.
 
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LamboAston
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:11 am

VC10er wrote:
I have sat in NYC Emergency Rooms for 20+ hours and that is truly the worst. (I have often thought that even a United economy seat in an ER waiting room would be a huge upgrade from hospital furniture) I would absolutely buy the expensive business class ticket for business trips on the non-stop, for leisure, I'd carry additional Xanax and perhaps Ambien too for economy and fly non-stop. I may sound like an addict, but I never met an economy seat that Xanax can't fix!

What is Xanax and Ambien, for those of us not living in America? UA's 777 economy is one of the few left in 3-3-3, so I would definitely prefer that over Emergency hospital waiting room seating (it isn't very good in New Zealand, but other waiting rooms are much nicer (in Dunedin))
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:50 am

LamboAston wrote:
What is Xanax and Ambien, for those of us not living in America?


Sleeping Pills
 
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:10 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Motorhussy wrote:
As others have said, if QF are looking beyond SYD-LHR & SYD-JFK and include other Australian cities in the mix, then BNE/MEL-LHR should also be considered, plus the (to be) existing PER-LHR - then surely the A350 would have the advantage. The extra capacity of the 778 may not be needed and might become extra risk.

A future international QF fleet of 787's and A350's feels right and likely to me: A350-1000, A350-900LR, 787-10 and 787-9.


Except QF have said 300 seats which the A359 won't get near over that distance, I do t no what the 778 will carry either but it's bigger.


This following was in the AFR a few days ago

Two aviation industry sources said the Airbus A350-900ULR would fit more than 250 passengers on the Sydney-London route, up from the 170 mainly business-class seats on Singapore Airlines' configuration for flights to New York and Los Angeles.
Boeing's 777-8, due to enter service early in the next decade, could carry around 280 passengers on the westbound leg of the Sydney-London flight, the sources said. The sources declined to be named because the configuration details are not finalised. Airbus and Boeing declined to comment specifically on the seat count.


http://www.afr.com/business/transport/a ... 405-gvepuk
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keesje
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:12 am

To be honest, with big hubs at Dubai and LAX, DFW, I never fully understood Qantas' contnuing desire to fly deep into Europe USA. Flying into DXB and continuing with dozens of good connections into Europe makes so much more sense than trying alone. Why do you think no european carrier flies anymore into Australia? It's a drama in terms of resources (aircraft utilization, crew, frequencies etc. ) Many carriers used to do it in the past, but stopped a long time since. Maybe it's political?
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KarelXWB
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:15 am

keesje wrote:
Why do you think no european carrier flies anymore into Australia? It's a drama in terms of resources (aircraft utilization, crew, frequencies etc. ) Many carriers used to do it in the past, but stopped a long time since. Maybe it's political?


Lack of proper equipment perhaps?
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redroo
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:46 am

A non stop SYD NYC would mean I could get a few more hours at home on the Sunday before I need to be in NYC on Monday. Going the other way it would mean a few more hours at home or in the office before flying to London.

When the QF1 used to go through BKK the transit was 90 mins. I would get off the plane walk through the terminal and back to the gate itching the get back on and continue the journey. Give me a non stop to Europe or NYC any day.

There are plenty of qantas Australian corporate customers that will happily more for the convenience of a non stop.
 
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keesje
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:59 am

It would be interesting to know how much the time saving is going to cost the passenger per hour.
Give the passenger half the saving to shop around at one one the great hubs.
Plus one stop adds a ton of extra frequencies / flexibility.. leaving when she/he wants.

On the other hand if those are 18-20 hour flights and turnaround is 4 hours or less, good flighthour utilization could be possible.
Don't know how the time windows would look though. Most LH wide bodies do 500-600 flights a year, average ~14 hours a day.
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Gemuser
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:26 pm

keesje wrote:
To be honest, with big hubs at Dubai and LAX, DFW, I never fully understood Qantas' contnuing desire to fly deep into Europe USA. Flying into DXB and continuing with dozens of good connections into Europe makes so much more sense than trying alone. Why do you think no european carrier flies anymore into Australia? It's a drama in terms of resources (aircraft utilization, crew, frequencies etc. ) Many carriers used to do it in the past, but stopped a long time since. Maybe it's political?

Keesje, this NOT about flying deep into Europe, it is about flying to the UK. It's all about Australia-UK &vv traffic. DXB remains for connections to Europe, LHR suck for that which is why the QF/EK JV exists. I seriously doubt that non stops into Europe are really on the cards, NO European city or country has the traffic to support such a service. QF service via DXB into Europe is another matter, it's at least possible.
Deeper into the USA is similar but not the same. Here it's non stop is to NYC, nowhere else. It [maybe] has the traffic to/from Australia to support the route. The LAX/DFW hubs are for the rest of the country.I'll be really surprised if SYD-ORD happens in the next 5/10 years.

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FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:40 pm

keesje wrote:
Why do you think no european carrier flies anymore into Australia? It's a drama in terms of resources (aircraft utilization, crew, frequencies etc. ) Many carriers used to do it in the past, but stopped a long time since. Maybe it's political?


Why would they ? with the amount of potential codeshare partners in Asia there is just no reason to, it's just a huge mess (staff, equipment, slots etc) that is easily avoidable. Besides I don't see many markets (apart from LHR) that would be big enough to sustain daily widebody rotations.
 
bmw123
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:35 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/economy- ... ure-2013-8

If economy class just looked like this ulr would be a breeze. lol
 
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keesje
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:45 pm

Emirates flies into Birmingham, Glasgow, London Heathrow, London Gatwick, Manchester and Newcastle.

In Australia Emirates flies into Adelaide,
Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney.

Many of those multiple flights a day.

That's many city pairs & frequencies and it cost way less fuel / polution to make a stop.

All for a 2 hr time saving, while you reserve a day for the trip anyway. Not sure..
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Polot
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:27 pm

keesje wrote:
Emirates flies into Birmingham, Glasgow, London Heathrow, London Gatwick, Manchester and Newcastle.

In Australia Emirates flies into Adelaide,
Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney.

Many of those multiple flights a day.

That's many city pairs & frequencies and it cost way less fuel / polution to make a stop.

All for a 2 hr time saving, while you reserve a day for the trip anyway. Not sure..

Great for the Birmingham, Glasgow, Manchester, Newcastle, Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, and Perth.

I suspect that QF is interested in Sydney-London nonstop primarily for the local traffic though. No one is suggesting QF fly the route 4x daily while dissolving the EK partnership.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:04 am

This is going to get interesting:

Airbus has increased the range of its A350-900ULR to 9,700 nautical miles (17,960 kms) from the 8,700 nautical miles announced when it sold the plane to Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI) in 2015 for delivery next year, a spokesman told Reuters. Including headwinds, the Sydney-London flight is equivalent to 9,600 nautical miles.

"These aircraft, we think, are potentially real goers on these routes," Qantas CEO Alan Joyce told Reuters of the A350-900ULR and the bigger but less advanced Boeing 777-8.


As for the economics:

As long as oil prices don't go much higher than around $70 per barrel, the 20-hour flight can be financially viable, and could be on schedules within five years, aviation experts say.


Airbus, Boeing close in on Qantas' ultra-long haul dream
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:39 am

I still think this is the 778's battle to lose, the A350 just can't match its seating capacity at range and it offers commonality with the 789 in the cockpit.
 
travelhound
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:39 am

I think this is just a rehash of old news. The claim that Airbus is increasing the range of the A350ULR is based upon the fact they offering an aircraft to do the route. Whether this is the A350ULR or another A350 derivative is still to be confirmed.
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:04 am

ikolkyo wrote:
I still think this is the 778's battle to lose, the A350 just can't match its seating capacity at range and it offers commonality with the 789 in the cockpit.


Well there is no point having more seats if you can't fill them, there is two side to this argument. Regarding commonality: don't forgot that Qantas already flies the A380 and A330, 40 in total, so the point is in favor of Airbus here.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:06 am

AsiaTravel wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I still think this is the 778's battle to lose, the A350 just can't match its seating capacity at range and it offers commonality with the 789 in the cockpit.


Well there is no point having more seats if you can't fill them, there is two side to this argument. Regarding commonality: don't forgot that Qantas already flies the A380 and A330, 40 in total, so the point is in favor of Airbus here.


Don't see how it's fully in Airbus's favor, they are getting 789s with a near identical cockpit to the 777X this year, QF is asking for 300 seats and that is what they can get from the 778. I hope the decision comes soon though!
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:07 am

ikolkyo wrote:
Don't see how it's fully in Airbus's favor, they are getting 789s with a near identical cockpit to the 777X this year, QF is asking for 300 seats and that is what they can get from the 778. I hope the decision comes soon though!


According the earlier reports, the westbound leg will be limited at 280 seats.
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Lentini2001
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:21 am

Revelation wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
What's the point of such a non-stop flight?

Anyone on such a flight (including both crews) would arrive at destination in no state to do much other than stumble and mumble about and go to bed, not sit down at a meeting table and negotiate future business contracts!

The operational costs would be horrible

A 2 or 3-hour stop somewhere to refuel and replenish will not impact overall journey time, and will save vast sums of money, and most people's sanity!

IMHO, a very silly idea for very little/no benefit!


And yet the CEO of QF sees a market for it, so there clearly are people with different opinions than yours.


The CEO of QF indeed who has probably never flown Y or even J in his life and see's everything from his first class suite...
 
qf789
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:13 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I still think this is the 778's battle to lose, the A350 just can't match its seating capacity at range and it offers commonality with the 789 in the cockpit.


Well there is no point having more seats if you can't fill them, there is two side to this argument. Regarding commonality: don't forgot that Qantas already flies the A380 and A330, 40 in total, so the point is in favor of Airbus here.


Don't see how it's fully in Airbus's favor, they are getting 789s with a near identical cockpit to the 777X this year, QF is asking for 300 seats and that is what they can get from the 778. I hope the decision comes soon though!


Its really not in favour of Airbus. While they operate 12 A380's and 28 A330's now by the time a 778 or A359ULR enters QF fleet, the earliest being 2022 the A330's will start to be replaced by 787's of 14 of them (that's half of the fleet) will be 20 years old between 2022 and 2025. QF is pushing for 300 seats so the aircraft can be deployed throughout other routes within the QF network which leans towards a 778/779 fleet. 779's would likely be used to replace the A380's when they need to be replaced towards the end of the next decade.
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Gemuser
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:14 pm

Lentini2001 wrote:

The CEO of QF indeed who has probably never flown Y or even J in his life and see's everything from his first class suite...

Unless he is flying to LHR, DXB or LAX he is flying business. He also spent many years as CEO of JQ and was frequently seen on their services, only Y.
You don't actually think airline CEOs make these decisions on their own, do you? The airline has many professionals who's job it is to determine such things and I bet they have much better information about both aircraft and the market than anybody on this site, of course they can still make mistakes, after all they are only human.

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bunumuring
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:35 pm

Hey guys,
Based on the quoted articles above, and some speculation among 'interested persons', I have a feeling that Airbus has gained the edge in this contest: possibly in conjunction with the 'settling' of the infamous deferred 8 x A380 order and the upcoming 737 replacement order.
Could we see an Airbus 'mega-order'? The A350 (whatever model of ULHer ends up being settled upon) plus the A32Xneo, maybe with a few 'standard' A350s as well? I still see this 'package' as a vaiable option, tying up some loose ends so to speak (those pesky deferred A380 orders being painlessly converted to other Airbus types) and presenting QF and Jetstar with a simplified fleet structure of A32Xneos, 787-8/-9s, A35Xs and A380s (at least for the medium term with the option to replace the A380s with A350-1000s and/or A350-1100s long term).
This scenario however is dependent upon the A350ULH offering AND the 777-8 meeting QF's operational and financial demands. If the Airbus offering doesn't meet QF's requirements, and the 777-8 does, I believe that the order will go Boeing no matter what....
More than ever, I believe Qantas WILL order one of the planes for the game-changing nonstop flights to LHR and JFK. Being Australian and immersed in a travel culture, I have absolutely no doubt that there is a viable market from the Australian end alone. One stop LHR flights would still continue from Australia no doubt, but JFK one-stops would be questionable: MEL-LAX-JFK Dreamliners timed to allow transferring passengers from the BNE-LAX flights to connect on to JFK supplementing nonstop SYD-JFK flights possibly?
My heart says 777, but right now my brain is leaning more towards an Airbus package that may be irresistible to Alan Joyce et al....
And yes, I agree with a poster above that the MoM is an intriguing proposition for golden triangle, transcontinental and near-Asia routes and adds some spice to the mix of the decision making taking place as we speak....
Cheers,
Bunumuring.
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:11 pm

travelhound wrote:
I think this is just a rehash of old news. The claim that Airbus is increasing the range of the A350ULR is based upon the fact they offering an aircraft to do the route. Whether this is the A350ULR or another A350 derivative is still to be confirmed.


Airbus makes the claim that it is increasing the range of the A350ULR, its not old news at all this is very new news, a respected local correspondant who usually has the inside track on Qantas news says that any A350-900 will be able to be upgraded to ULR standard.

In this respect the Airbus plans for the A350 in coming, and potential, ULR formats are more than intriguing. Its shtick is that from 2019 all A350-900s will have the inbuilt potential to be upgraded into A350-900 URLs, thus solving the problem of producing a version of the jet almost nobody wants.


https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalkin ... /09/62214/
BV
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:15 pm

BoeingVista wrote:
Airbus makes the claim that it is increasing the range of the A350ULR, its not old news at all this is very new news, a respected local correspondant who usually has the inside track on Qantas news says that any A350-900 will be able to be upgraded to ULR standard.

It is hard to tell if that is actually new news or the author misunderstanding the known fact that the A359ULR can easily be converted back to A359 "standard specifications" (which is different than a normal A359 being able to be easily upgraded to a A350ULR after it leaves the factory).
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Qantas considering 777-8 or A359ULR to replace 744ER's to fly SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR non-stop

Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:36 pm

Polot wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
Airbus makes the claim that it is increasing the range of the A350ULR, its not old news at all this is very new news, a respected local correspondant who usually has the inside track on Qantas news says that any A350-900 will be able to be upgraded to ULR standard.

It is hard to tell if that is actually new news or the author misunderstanding the known fact that the A359ULR can easily be converted back to A359 "standard specifications" (which is different than a normal A359 being able to be easily upgraded to a A350ULR after it leaves the factory).


The potential bump to 9700nm is new news to all of us here. I agree that we cannot tell the level of standardisation with a "standard: 2019 spec -900 but this person does generaly post acurate well sourced articles.
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