Southern Airways Express is hosting a forum with local business travelers tomorrow morning at YNG. Previous articles referenced the possibility of service to Baltimore or Detroit. Also, if you note in the crankyflyer article above, the prospect of an interline announcement could happen soon.

YNGguins wrote:

Southern Airways Express is hosting a forum with local business travelers tomorrow morning at YNG. Previous articles referenced the possibility of service to Baltimore or Detroit. Also, if you note in the crankyflyer article above, the prospect of an interline announcement could happen soon.

Do you think YNG-PIT is too short a flight? That would feed the rest of their network and, presumably, connect to whoever they interline with. It'd also be a little easier to feed the flights to Detroit in terms of positioning aircraft (BWI would be a haul on a Caravan).

I'm curious to see if they'd use YNG to springboard further west, especially in Ohio (CMH, CVG/LUK, TOL).

[twoid][/twoid]

DeltaRules wrote:

YNGguins wrote:

Southern Airways Express is hosting a forum with local business travelers tomorrow morning at YNG. Previous articles referenced the possibility of service to Baltimore or Detroit. Also, if you note in the crankyflyer article above, the prospect of an interline announcement could happen soon.

Do you think YNG-PIT is too short a flight? That would feed the rest of their network and, presumably, connect to whoever they interline with. It'd also be a little easier to feed the flights to Detroit in terms of positioning aircraft (BWI would be a haul on a Caravan).

I'm curious to see if they'd use YNG to springboard further west, especially in Ohio (CMH, CVG/LUK, TOL).

It's way too close. Much of the population around the city of Youngstown went to the southern suburbs along 224. I can get to PIT within 55 mins on a good day from the suburb I live.

Their VP was quoted in a paper last week that YNG would not get PIT service in addressing concerns from folks in Franklin. Not sure that whole story but it was on Google news.

YNG could be a decent non-EAS market for Southern to attempt to make work. I would imagine we will know more tomorrow this time once media posts their stories.

DeltaRules wrote:

A350 at CMH:

https://twitter.com/michealw31/status/9 ... 6629974016

Yesterday, I saw that it had already flown to Dayton, but also that it was headed back to CMH. So, I made a quick trip down to the airport to watch it. Unfortunately, the parking garage was full, so I had to hang out at the McD's... and it came in on the south runway (which, I guess makes sense).

But, it was still pretty cool to see it. The old viewing area, off of Hamilton, would've been perfect.

Does anyone know how long they continue these training flights? Any chance of it coming back soon?

NoTime wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

A350 at CMH:

https://twitter.com/michealw31/status/9 ... 6629974016

Yesterday, I saw that it had already flown to Dayton, but also that it was headed back to CMH. So, I made a quick trip down to the airport to watch it. Unfortunately, the parking garage was full, so I had to hang out at the McD's... and it came in on the south runway (which, I guess makes sense).

But, it was still pretty cool to see it. The old viewing area, off of Hamilton, would've been perfect.

Does anyone know how long they continue these training flights? Any chance of it coming back soon?

The've done training flights for each of their A350s so far, so I guess it's possible. I was somewhat surprised they picked CMH and DAY over CVG this time.

Confirmed, F9 will not fly CVG-SEA because of not enough aircraft. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html. This would be a great opening for G4 to serve BLI.

cvgComair wrote:

Confirmed, F9 will not fly CVG-SEA because of not enough aircraft. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html. This would be a great opening for G4 to serve BLI.

This provides an opening for AS to launch CVG-SEA, so it's not all that bad. I'd rather have AS serve this route than F9.

YNGguins wrote:

[twoid][/twoid]

DeltaRules wrote:

YNGguins wrote:

Southern Airways Express is hosting a forum with local business travelers tomorrow morning at YNG. Previous articles referenced the possibility of service to Baltimore or Detroit. Also, if you note in the crankyflyer article above, the prospect of an interline announcement could happen soon.

Do you think YNG-PIT is too short a flight? That would feed the rest of their network and, presumably, connect to whoever they interline with. It'd also be a little easier to feed the flights to Detroit in terms of positioning aircraft (BWI would be a haul on a Caravan).

I'm curious to see if they'd use YNG to springboard further west, especially in Ohio (CMH, CVG/LUK, TOL).

It's way too close. Much of the population around the city of Youngstown went to the southern suburbs along 224. I can get to PIT within 55 mins on a good day from the suburb I live.

Their VP was quoted in a paper last week that YNG would not get PIT service in addressing concerns from folks in Franklin. Not sure that whole story but it was on Google news.

YNG could be a decent non-EAS market for Southern to attempt to make work. I would imagine we will know more tomorrow this time once media posts their stories.

Looks like they're considering YNG-BWI/DET/CMH. Any more info?

http://www.vindy.com/news/2017/dec/06/s ... ce-vienna/

cvgComair wrote:

Confirmed, F9 will not fly CVG-SEA because of not enough aircraft. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html. This would be a great opening for G4 to serve BLI.

I don't know that BLI can really be considered a valid SEA alternate IMO...the distance is too far.

Fun tidbit I learned yesterday about Skybus: there was a plan for Skybus to be used for domestic feed for Ryanair's TATL network.

My, how different things look ten years later. Skybus didn't even last a year and there are ULCCs running TATL, but none of them are FR.

flyguy89 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

Confirmed, F9 will not fly CVG-SEA because of not enough aircraft. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html. This would be a great opening for G4 to serve BLI.

I don't know that BLI can really be considered a valid SEA alternate IMO...the distance is too far.

BLI, the main airport for Bellingham, WA, is also used as a secondary commercial airport for Vancouver, BC, even though it is on the U.S. side of the U.S.-Canada border and even though it is 52 miles SE of Vancouver, BC. BLI is actually much closer to Vancouver, BC than it is to Downtown Seattle, and Downtown Seattle is 94 miles S of BLI. Allegiant markets BLI as an alternative airport for Vancouver, BC but not as an alternative airport for Seattle, WA.

Despite BLI being much closer to Vancouver, BC than to Seattle, WA, Skybus used to serve BLI nonstop from CMH before going out of business in April 2008 and Skybus even marketed the BLI as an alternative airport for the Seattle area despite BLI being over 90 miles from Downtown Seattle.

flyguy89 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

Confirmed, F9 will not fly CVG-SEA because of not enough aircraft. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html. This would be a great opening for G4 to serve BLI.

I don't know that BLI can really be considered a valid SEA alternate IMO...the distance is too far.

Yeah, I am not sure, it would depend on what they are looking for. I have made the SEA-BLI drive quite a few times, it depends on where you are going. Everything in Washington is so spread out, many of the national parks take hours to get to from SEA anyway. They could market BLI for Vancouver/San Juan Islands which are big tourist draws, but it might detract away from SEA demand. It certainly would not be unprecedented since SX served BLI from CMH, but if NK can work out gate arrangements at SEA, I am sure G4 would have no problems securing space for 2x/wk flights for CVG.

I have a few questions about CVG. First, when will they build the new rental car facility and will they be demolishing the old Terminal 1 and/or 2 garages to make room for it. If they demolish the garages, will they realign the terminal road? Second, are they still planning on building the west wing of Concourse A? Third, will they keep Concourse B long term?

ORD2BNA wrote:

I have a few questions about CVG. First, when will they build the new rental car facility and will they be demolishing the old Terminal 1 and/or 2 garages to make room for it. If they demolish the garages, will they realign the terminal road? Second, are they still planning on building the west wing of Concourse A? Third, will they keep Concourse B long term?

Construction is scheduled to be completed by 2021, the project design is still being finalized, so a start date is not yet set in stone. Renderings of the buildings and roadways are on Pg 26: http://www.cvgairport.com/docs/default- ... f?sfvrsn=0. They will be realigning roads and separating Garage 1&2, but otherwise the garages will stay intact.

The Concourse A extension is still planned, but will not start until the mid 2020’s, the airport is currently negotiating DL’s lease and freeing up gates in concourse B for other airlines to use (either F9 or AA), giving WN and any other new carriers room to expand. Long term, the airport is working on the terminal plan for 2050 currently, renderings will be release in Q1 next year, so the future of B is uncertain at this point.

DeltaRules wrote:

Fun tidbit I learned yesterday about Skybus: there was a plan for Skybus to be used for domestic feed for Ryanair's TATL network.

My, how different things look ten years later. Skybus didn't even last a year and there are ULCCs running TATL, but none of them are FR.

That's interesting.

Why, exactly, did Skybus implode? My assumption was that they tried to do too much, too soon. I remember thinking "they're expanding way too fast" and just assumed that they spread themselves too thin.

Was it something else? (I mean, obviously, a lack of cash flow caused it, but what caused the lack of cash flow? Could they have fared better if they had grown in a slower, more controllable fashion?)

NoTime wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

Fun tidbit I learned yesterday about Skybus: there was a plan for Skybus to be used for domestic feed for Ryanair's TATL network.



Why, exactly, did Skybus implode? My assumption was that they tried to do too much, too soon. I remember thinking "they're expanding way too fast" and just assumed that they spread themselves too thin.

Was it something else? (I mean, obviously, a lack of cash flow caused it, but what caused the lack of cash flow? Could they have fared better if they had grown in a slower, more controllable fashion?)

There were several reasons. First, the price of jet fuel went through the roof. When you market yourself as a low cost carrier, your costs better be low. Second, they didn't hsve a coherent plan for growth. They seemingly added cities without the thought of where they were going to get the planes to fly there. They added the Bay Area and Bellingham, WA which tied up two planes all day while the rest of the fleet was spread out everywhere else. Any delay or breakdown caused a major chain reaction within the network. Third was a goofy ticket price structure. $10 for the first 10 seats, $20 for the next ten and so on. People got the attitude if they were paying more than $40 or $50, they were paying too much and would wait until they got lower price. Flights were leaving too empty due to this.

These are just a few of the reasons. There were many smaller customer service type problems, but the core issue was what I listed above.

NoTime wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

Fun tidbit I learned yesterday about Skybus: there was a plan for Skybus to be used for domestic feed for Ryanair's TATL network.

My, how different things look ten years later. Skybus didn't even last a year and there are ULCCs running TATL, but none of them are FR.

That's interesting.

Why, exactly, did Skybus implode? My assumption was that they tried to do too much, too soon. I remember thinking "they're expanding way too fast" and just assumed that they spread themselves too thin.

Was it something else? (I mean, obviously, a lack of cash flow caused it, but what caused the lack of cash flow? Could they have fared better if they had grown in a slower, more controllable fashion?)

Economy was down, Oil was at $110 bucks a barrel, and they were charging dirt cheap fares. Not really a recipe for success, IMO.

john7165 wrote:

NoTime wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

Fun tidbit I learned yesterday about Skybus: there was a plan for Skybus to be used for domestic feed for Ryanair's TATL network.



Why, exactly, did Skybus implode? My assumption was that they tried to do too much, too soon. I remember thinking "they're expanding way too fast" and just assumed that they spread themselves too thin.

Was it something else? (I mean, obviously, a lack of cash flow caused it, but what caused the lack of cash flow? Could they have fared better if they had grown in a slower, more controllable fashion?)

There were several reasons. First, the price of jet fuel went through the roof. When you market yourself as a low cost carrier, your costs better be low. Second, they didn't hsve a coherent plan for growth. They seemingly added cities without the thought of where they were going to get the planes to fly there. They added the Bay Area and Bellingham, WA which tied up two planes all day while the rest of the fleet was spread out everywhere else. Any delay or breakdown caused a major chain reaction within the network. Third was a goofy ticket price structure. $10 for the first 10 seats, $20 for the next ten and so on. People got the attitude if they were paying more than $40 or $50, they were paying too much and would wait until they got lower price. Flights were leaving too empty due to this.

These are just a few of the reasons. There were many smaller customer service type problems, but the core issue was what I listed above.

I flew six segments with them (all CMH-UST and back) and all of the flights were full. Their first A319s (any of them with single overwing exits) were leased from either AC or VX while their launch was delayed, but they started taking deliveries of new planes late in the year.

All the flights I was on were full or close to it. The last trip, at the end of the year, saw a long delay at UST, and an even longer delay to get luggage at baggage claim at CMH. As much as I was pulling for the hometown airline, I was longing for DL.

The thing which was glaring to me in their route network were two huge holes- Orlando and Las Vegas. LAS might have been tricky, but nobody was running CMH-SFB at the time. People were definitely using UST to get to Orlando (judging from inevitably seeing Disney bags around the terminal), but it seemed a bit ridiculous that the gateway to Disney was 20 miles from Jacksonville.

Huge Summer aircraft upgagues for DL at CVG:
- CVG-LAX: 1xB752!!!! + 1xB738 (was 2xB738)
- CVG-SFO: 1xB739 (kept from 2017)
- CVG-LAS: 1xB739 (was 1xB738)
- CVG-SEA: 1xB739 (was 1xB738/9)
- CVG-ATL: 8xB738 (was 6xMD80 + 2xB738)
- CVG-MCO: 2xB738 (was 2xMD80)
- CVG-SLC: 2xB738 (was 1xA320 + 1xB738)
- CVG-DEN: 1xMD90 (was 1x712)
- CVG-DTW: 1xMD90, 5xCR9 (was 1x712 + 5xCR7/9)
- CVG-TPA: 1xMD90 (was B712/MD80)
- CVG-BOS: 2xMD90 + 2xCR9 (was 2x712 + 2xCR9)
- CVG-RSW: 1xB712 (was 1xCR9)
- CVG-RDU 2xCRJ9 (was 2xCRJ)
- CVG-STL 1xCR9 + 1xCRJ (was 1xCR7 + 1xCRJ)
- CVG-BDL: 1xCR9 (was 1xCR7)

Downguages:
- CVG-BNA: 1xCR7 (was 1xCR9)
- CVG-XNA: 1xCRJ (was 1xCR7)
- CVG-ORD 5xCRJ (was 2xCRJ + 2xCR7 + 1xCR9)

What would be the feasibility of F9 establishing a second DEN-like hub at CVG? It seems F9 is increasing operations there as of late, and I feel CVG would be a good location for a hub of some sort. Yes, DL still has their "hub", but they will likely never grow it much. F9 could use a large hub/focus city in the eastern portion of the US and I feel CVG would be the perfect place.

ADrum23 wrote:

What would be the feasibility of F9 establishing a second DEN-like hub at CVG? It seems F9 is increasing operations there as of late, and I feel CVG would be a good location for a hub of some sort. Yes, DL still has their "hub", but they will likely never grow it much. F9 could use a large hub/focus city in the eastern portion of the US and I feel CVG would be the perfect place.

I think it would be very feasible. If F9 is the carrier moving to B, we can probably say with high certainty that they intend to make CVG a real hub. They are already adding a bunch of connection options this summer and the potential move to B would allow them to grow a lot. With 200 aircraft on order, they certainly have the feasibility to create whatever they would like. Even if they don't create a DEN-style hub, certainly a good number of those aircraft will be flying at CVG on new routes.

cvgComair wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

What would be the feasibility of F9 establishing a second DEN-like hub at CVG? It seems F9 is increasing operations there as of late, and I feel CVG would be a good location for a hub of some sort. Yes, DL still has their "hub", but they will likely never grow it much. F9 could use a large hub/focus city in the eastern portion of the US and I feel CVG would be the perfect place.

I think it would be very feasible. If F9 is the carrier moving to B, we can probably say with high certainty that they intend to make CVG a real hub. They are already adding a bunch of connection options this summer and the potential move to B would allow them to grow a lot. With 200 aircraft on order, they certainly have the feasibility to create whatever they would like. Even if they don't create a DEN-style hub, certainly a good number of those aircraft will be flying at CVG on new routes.

But would moving to Concourse B be enough? If we are talking about a F9 hub approaching the level of DEN, I don't think there would be enough gate space. I was thinking building out the west wing of Concourse A with 20-25 new gates and moving all of F9 to there. If AA then moves to B as you previously mentioned, then the remaining gates on the east side of Concourse A could be used for WN expansion or new airlines.

ADrum23 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

What would be the feasibility of F9 establishing a second DEN-like hub at CVG? It seems F9 is increasing operations there as of late, and I feel CVG would be a good location for a hub of some sort. Yes, DL still has their "hub", but they will likely never grow it much. F9 could use a large hub/focus city in the eastern portion of the US and I feel CVG would be the perfect place.

I think it would be very feasible. If F9 is the carrier moving to B, we can probably say with high certainty that they intend to make CVG a real hub. They are already adding a bunch of connection options this summer and the potential move to B would allow them to grow a lot. With 200 aircraft on order, they certainly have the feasibility to create whatever they would like. Even if they don't create a DEN-style hub, certainly a good number of those aircraft will be flying at CVG on new routes.

But would moving to Concourse B be enough? If we are talking about a F9 hub approaching the level of DEN, I don't think there would be enough gate space. I was thinking building out the west wing of Concourse A with 20-25 new gates and moving all of F9 to there. If AA then moves to B as you previously mentioned, then the remaining gates on the east side of Concourse A could be used for WN expansion or new airlines.

According to DEN's terminal map, F9 is only using 8 gates at DEN. They run about 60-70 flights a day from DEN, so I think they could achieve a good number of flights once AA moves to B.

I can say with 100% accuracy that it will be AA moving to Concourse B

AirportRival wrote:

I can say with 100% accuracy that it will be AA moving to Concourse B

How do you know this? Do you work at the airport?

AirportRival wrote:

I can say with 100% accuracy that it will be AA moving to Concourse B

I will be interested to see what AA does to get the large passenger increases anticipated in B. DL has a large increase in seats YOY this Summer, currently scheduled at around 11%, which will certainly make a dent. AA must be making some serious adds.

AirportRival wrote:

I can say with 100% accuracy that it will be AA moving to Concourse B

How do you know this? Do you work at the airport?

AirportRival wrote:

I can say with 100% accuracy that it will be AA moving to Concourse B

How do you know this, do you work at the airport?

I have some additional details:
- American Airlines is moving by April 1, 2018, will take gates B18/20/22/24/26
- They are expecting 600,000 emplanements in B by AA for 2018 (April-December), this doubles AA's current capacity
- The breakdown of concessions being added is 11 in B, 4 in A, and 1 in T3.
- The airport is also predicting that pax totals break 9 million for 2018

cvgComair wrote:

AirportRival wrote:

I can say with 100% accuracy that it will be AA moving to Concourse B

I will be interested to see what AA does to get the large passenger increases anticipated in B. DL has a large increase in seats YOY this Summer, currently scheduled at around 11%, which will certainly make a dent. AA must be making some serious adds.

I could see AA adding LAX and upgauging flights to ORD, PHL and CLT...maybe PHX as well, but I doubt it since CVG-PHX has never seemed to be a particularly strong performer.

flyguy89 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

AirportRival wrote:

I can say with 100% accuracy that it will be AA moving to Concourse B

I will be interested to see what AA does to get the large passenger increases anticipated in B. DL has a large increase in seats YOY this Summer, currently scheduled at around 11%, which will certainly make a dent. AA must be making some serious adds.

I could see AA adding LAX and upgauging flights to ORD, PHL and CLT...maybe PHX as well, but I doubt it since CVG-PHX has never seemed to be a particularly strong performer.

Just running numbers, looks like AA carriers similar numbers of passengers at CMH/IND to what AA is predicted to hit next year, so I would assume CVG will get essentially what IND/CMH have on AA currently, which would add:
- Mainline to LAX/PHX
- Upgauge and/or Mainline to CLT/PHL/ORD
- Increase frequency to JFK/MIA/DFW/LGA/DCA

cvgComair wrote:

I have some additional details:
- American Airlines is moving by April 1, 2018, will take gates B18/20/22/24/26
- They are expecting 600,000 emplanements in B by AA for 2018 (April-December), this doubles AA's current capacity
- The breakdown of concessions being added is 11 in B, 4 in A, and 1 in T3.
- The airport is also predicting that pax totals break 9 million for 2018

600,000 enplanements? I anticipate they will be adding some significant mainline operations if that is the case. And I think 9 million by the end of next year, while doable, may be a bit too optimistic. However, if AA does what you say and DL, F9 and WN expand, then it probably will happen. Do you think DL will add back some of the routes they cut to fend off further F9 and WN expansion? Also, where will CVG be finishing in passenger numbers this year, somewhere in the upper 7 million range?

ADrum23 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

I have some additional details:
- American Airlines is moving by April 1, 2018, will take gates B18/20/22/24/26
- They are expecting 600,000 emplanements in B by AA for 2018 (April-December), this doubles AA's current capacity
- The breakdown of concessions being added is 11 in B, 4 in A, and 1 in T3.
- The airport is also predicting that pax totals break 9 million for 2018

600,000 enplanements? I anticipate they will be adding some significant mainline operations if that is the case. And I think 9 million by the end of next year, while doable, may be a bit too optimistic. However, if AA does what you say and DL, F9 and WN expand, then it probably will happen. Do you think DL will add back some of the routes they cut to fend off further F9 and WN expansion? Also, where will CVG be finishing in passenger numbers this year, somewhere in the upper 7 million range?

CVG should finish right around 7.8-7.9 million for 2017 (the airport is estimating 7.8). I don't think DL will add anything besides AUS, otherwise I just see aircraft upgauges for now. The airport is showing DL as flat growth for 2018, so I don't think they will be adding any destinations soon.

ADrum23 wrote:

AirportRival wrote:

I can say with 100% accuracy that it will be AA moving to Concourse B

How do you know this? Do you work at the airport?

He does

cvgComair wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

I have some additional details:
- American Airlines is moving by April 1, 2018, will take gates B18/20/22/24/26
- They are expecting 600,000 emplanements in B by AA for 2018 (April-December), this doubles AA's current capacity
- The breakdown of concessions being added is 11 in B, 4 in A, and 1 in T3.
- The airport is also predicting that pax totals break 9 million for 2018

600,000 enplanements? I anticipate they will be adding some significant mainline operations if that is the case. And I think 9 million by the end of next year, while doable, may be a bit too optimistic. However, if AA does what you say and DL, F9 and WN expand, then it probably will happen. Do you think DL will add back some of the routes they cut to fend off further F9 and WN expansion? Also, where will CVG be finishing in passenger numbers this year, somewhere in the upper 7 million range?

CVG should finish right around 7.8-7.9 million for 2017 (the airport is estimating 7.8). I don't think DL will add anything besides AUS, otherwise I just see aircraft upgauges for now. The airport is showing DL as flat growth for 2018, so I don't think they will be adding any destinations soon.

What do you mean the airport is showing?

ADrum23 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

I have some additional details:
- American Airlines is moving by April 1, 2018, will take gates B18/20/22/24/26
- They are expecting 600,000 emplanements in B by AA for 2018 (April-December), this doubles AA's current capacity
- The breakdown of concessions being added is 11 in B, 4 in A, and 1 in T3.
- The airport is also predicting that pax totals break 9 million for 2018

600,000 enplanements? I anticipate they will be adding some significant mainline operations if that is the case. And I think 9 million by the end of next year, while doable, may be a bit too optimistic. However, if AA does what you say and DL, F9 and WN expand, then it probably will happen. Do you think DL will add back some of the routes they cut to fend off further F9 and WN expansion? Also, where will CVG be finishing in passenger numbers this year, somewhere in the upper 7 million range?

No, it is incredibly doable, Southwest only services CVG for half the year this year.

Cvgspotter15 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

600,000 enplanements? I anticipate they will be adding some significant mainline operations if that is the case. And I think 9 million by the end of next year, while doable, may be a bit too optimistic. However, if AA does what you say and DL, F9 and WN expand, then it probably will happen. Do you think DL will add back some of the routes they cut to fend off further F9 and WN expansion? Also, where will CVG be finishing in passenger numbers this year, somewhere in the upper 7 million range?

CVG should finish right around 7.8-7.9 million for 2017 (the airport is estimating 7.8). I don't think DL will add anything besides AUS, otherwise I just see aircraft upgauges for now. The airport is showing DL as flat growth for 2018, so I don't think they will be adding any destinations soon.

What do you mean the airport is showing?

Airport Concourse Enplanement Estimates:
Concourse, 2016, 2017, 2018
A, 1650000, 2200000, 200000 (net 400,000 growth for non-AA)
B, 1760000, 1900000, 250000 (All 600,000 growth is for AA)

cvgComair wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

I will be interested to see what AA does to get the large passenger increases anticipated in B. DL has a large increase in seats YOY this Summer, currently scheduled at around 11%, which will certainly make a dent. AA must be making some serious adds.

I could see AA adding LAX and upgauging flights to ORD, PHL and CLT...maybe PHX as well, but I doubt it since CVG-PHX has never seemed to be a particularly strong performer.

Just running numbers, looks like AA carriers similar numbers of passengers at CMH/IND to what AA is predicted to hit next year, so I would assume CVG will get essentially what IND/CMH have on AA currently, which would add:
- Mainline to LAX/PHX
- Upgauge and/or Mainline to CLT/PHL/ORD
- Increase frequency to JFK/MIA/DFW/LGA/DCA

I would be very surprised if AA at CVG got to IND/CMH numbers next year.
1. The earliest they could launch new routes for 2018 would be late May at the earliest, and that would be if they announced the new routes today
2. AA would only have 5 gates at CVG, while they have 8 at IND
3. AA currently peaks at ~30 departures per day out of CVG, while at IND/CMH they peak at ~46, meaning they would have to add about 16 departures per day in the next few months
4. CVG has more competition than IND/CMH on PHL/CLT/ORD/DCA/MIA/LGA routes
5. AA would need to win over a large number of flyers in a very short period in time, considering AA was close to 1 million enplanements at IND last year

Maybe in 2019-2020 etc, but I just don't think it is highly probable for 2018

Midwestindy wrote:

I would be very surprised if AA at CVG got to IND/CMH numbers next year.
1. The earliest they could launch new routes for 2018 would be late May at the earliest, and that would be if they announced the new routes today
2. AA would only have 5 gates at CVG, while they have 8 at IND
3. AA currently peaks at ~30 departures per day out of CVG, while at IND/CMH they peak at ~46, meaning they would have to add about 16 departures per day in the next few months
4. CVG has more competition than IND/CMH on PHL/CLT/ORD/DCA/MIA/LGA routes
5. AA would need to win over a large number of flyers in a very short period in time, considering AA was close to 1 million enplanements at IND last year

Maybe in 2019-2020 etc, but I just don't think it is highly probable for 2018

Wow, I didn't realize IND got up to 1 million emplacements, I was thinking it was more like 8-900k. The airport must be certain AA will hit the 800,000/year (600,000 for 2018) because part of the agreement for adding concessions requires that Concourse B see 2.5 million emplacements and Concourse A see 2.0 million for 2018. It looks like the airport would be on the hook if the goal is not met and I don't think they would rush to build 11 concessions in B if AA was not committed to reaching that level. Not surprisingly, many bidders for the build out questioned how growth would be this high and the airport's response was essentially "trust us, its going to happen". I guess we will see, I agree its a tall order in such a sort time, perhaps there is more to this such as corporate agreements backing extra flights.

As far as timelines go, while AA switches over by April 1st, the new concessions are scheduled to open in July 2018, so that still gives AA some time to announce routes/etc. However, if new stuff does not come until that late, it would mean AA needs to add substantially more flights to reach 600,000 for 2018. Assuming they remain at current levels until July, then add flights, that would translate into a rate of 1.1 million emplanements per year. There must be some corporate backing to this, otherwise there is no way they could get that number of fliers. It will be interesting to see what happens...

cvgComair wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

I would be very surprised if AA at CVG got to IND/CMH numbers next year.
1. The earliest they could launch new routes for 2018 would be late May at the earliest, and that would be if they announced the new routes today
2. AA would only have 5 gates at CVG, while they have 8 at IND
3. AA currently peaks at ~30 departures per day out of CVG, while at IND/CMH they peak at ~46, meaning they would have to add about 16 departures per day in the next few months
4. CVG has more competition than IND/CMH on PHL/CLT/ORD/DCA/MIA/LGA routes
5. AA would need to win over a large number of flyers in a very short period in time, considering AA was close to 1 million enplanements at IND last year

Maybe in 2019-2020 etc, but I just don't think it is highly probable for 2018

Wow, I didn't realize IND got up to 1 million emplacements, I was thinking it was more like 8-900k. The airport must be certain AA will hit the 800,000/year (600,000 for 2018) because part of the agreement for adding concessions requires that Concourse B see 2.5 million emplacements and Concourse A see 2.0 million for 2018. It looks like the airport would be on the hook if the goal is not met and I don't think they would rush to build 11 concessions in B if AA was not committed to reaching that level. Not surprisingly, many bidders for the build out questioned how growth would be this high and the airport's response was essentially "trust us, its going to happen". I guess we will see, I agree its a tall order in such a sort time, perhaps there is more to this such as corporate agreements backing extra flights.

As far as timelines go, while AA switches over by April 1st, the new concessions are scheduled to open in July 2018, so that still gives AA some time to announce routes/etc. However, if new stuff does not come until that late, it would mean AA needs to add substantially more flights to reach 600,000 for 2018. Assuming they remain at current levels until July, then add flights, that would translate into a rate of 1.1 million enplanements per year. There must be some corporate backing to this, otherwise there is no way they could get that number of fliers. It will be interesting to see what happens...

1. Why is DL giving up its lock on B? Do they not need all the gates to maintain their current service level?

2. Is AA going to make CVG a focus city or something? Why would they need to move to B anyway and why would CVG be on the hook for the new concessions?

3. Would not DL giving up its lock on Concourse B negate the need to build the western wing of Concourse A for now?

Interesting times at CVG indeed. If the current trend keeps going, they will return to being the largest and premier airport in the tri-state region in no time. I know in the past I was in favor of DL dehubbing CVG, but now I've change my mind to the point where I think DL cutting back at CVG was a mistake.

ADrum23 wrote:

1. Why is DL giving up its lock on B? Do they not need all the gates to maintain their current service level?

They don't need all the gates, Concourse B was designed for many more flights than the 80 DL currently operates. Peak banks use most of the gates, but the rest of the day the concourse is pretty much dead.

ADrum23 wrote:

2. Is AA going to make CVG a focus city or something? Why would they need to move to B anyway and why would CVG be on the hook for the new concessions?

I doubt they will make CVG a focus city, they are just so weak at CVG right now. This gets them in line with their operations at other cities, much like United did in the past few years.

ADrum23 wrote:

3. Would not DL giving up its lock on Concourse B negate the need to build the western wing of Concourse A for now? Interesting times at CVG indeed. If the current trend keeps going, they will return to being the largest and premier airport in the tri-state region in no time. I know in the past I was in favor of DL dehubbing CVG, but now I've change my mind to the point where I think DL cutting back at CVG was a mistake.

Yep, this move buys the airport time while the airlines expand like crazy. I think DL is in a good place, the future looks very bright indeed.

Midwestindy wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

I could see AA adding LAX and upgauging flights to ORD, PHL and CLT...maybe PHX as well, but I doubt it since CVG-PHX has never seemed to be a particularly strong performer.

Just running numbers, looks like AA carriers similar numbers of passengers at CMH/IND to what AA is predicted to hit next year, so I would assume CVG will get essentially what IND/CMH have on AA currently, which would add:
- Mainline to LAX/PHX
- Upgauge and/or Mainline to CLT/PHL/ORD
- Increase frequency to JFK/MIA/DFW/LGA/DCA

I would be very surprised if AA at CVG got to IND/CMH numbers next year.
1. The earliest they could launch new routes for 2018 would be late May at the earliest, and that would be if they announced the new routes today
2. AA would only have 5 gates at CVG, while they have 8 at IND
3. AA currently peaks at ~30 departures per day out of CVG, while at IND/CMH they peak at ~46, meaning they would have to add about 16 departures per day in the next few months
4. CVG has more competition than IND/CMH on PHL/CLT/ORD/DCA/MIA/LGA routes
5. AA would need to win over a large number of flyers in a very short period in time, considering AA was close to 1 million enplanements at IND last year

Maybe in 2019-2020 etc, but I just don't think it is highly probable for 2018

CMH has 9 AA gates (B19-26, B28) and barely sees LUS mainline to anywhere on the East Coast (it's literally one E190 to PHL which runs in the Spring). I think part of that has to do with RP's maintenance base, as many LUS flights are operated by RP (and JQ before that) to DCA/PHL/CLT/LGA (there are CR7s/CR9s/145s which come in during the day, but the terminators are almost all E175). A good chunk of the LAA ORD flying is on Republic now, as well. The same holds true to an extent for DL and UA; on any given night (case in point, 2 1/2 hours ago when I came in from ATL), CMH is E175 city between the RONs and the other planes which come off the gates to go to the hangar.

If the same were to hold true, I'd figure the PSA crew and maintenance base might temper the amount of mainline they'd throw at CVG for the same reason.

ADrum23 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/2017/11/20/what-pricey-cvg-destinations-get-cheaper/874038001/
Nice article about the pricey destinations from CVG. It is very clear that BOS is the big LCC hole.

Houston is another big LCC hole from CVG after Frontier discontinued IAH-CVG nonstop service, but Southwest could add nonstop service to HOU from CVG, and Southwest would also be able to connect customers to other SWA destinations in Texas and Mexico through HOU from CVG (including AUS, SAT, MAF, ELP, CRP, and HRL in Texas and including MEX, PVR, and SJD in Mexico) if it adds HOU-CVG nonstop service.

Yes, Boston, Houston and Seattle/Tacoma are underserved by LCC’s from CVG.

I predict B6 and AS will enter CVG in 2018 and launch service to BOS and SEA respectively. AS does not serve any of the Ohio cities currently, and CVG would make the most sense. Also, WN will likely add some new routes out of CVG and I predict HOU will be among them.

In addition to Boston, Houston, and Seattle/Tacoma, there are currently no LCC's serving Kansas City nonstop from CVG, Delta is currently the only airline to serve MCI nonstop from CVG, and Allegiant, Frontier, and Southwest are all also at MCI. Allegiant, Frontier, or Southwest could add CVG-MCI nonstop service if the demand is really there. Will Allegiant, Frontier, or Southwest add nonstop service to MCI from CVG?

It looks like CVG-PVD/RDU/LAX are doing well, all three are being upgraded from an A319 to an A320.

jplatts wrote:

In addition to Boston, Houston, and Seattle/Tacoma, there are currently no LCC's serving Kansas City nonstop from CVG, Delta is currently the only airline to serve MCI nonstop from CVG, and Allegiant, Frontier, and Southwest are all also at MCI. Allegiant, Frontier, or Southwest could add CVG-MCI nonstop service if the demand is really there. Will Allegiant, Frontier, or Southwest add nonstop service to MCI from CVG?

no they won't. The demand is not there.

cvgComair wrote:

It looks like CVG-PVD/RDU/LAX are doing well, all three are being upgraded from an A319 to an A320.

This is mainly because the G4 CVG base will be an A320 base next year. The transition starts in January so that by April there will be 5 of the brand new A320's based at CVG. There will still be some A319's flying in and out of CVG but it will be ones based out of other focus cities/hubs.

Jshank83 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

In addition to Boston, Houston, and Seattle/Tacoma, there are currently no LCC's serving Kansas City nonstop from CVG, Delta is currently the only airline to serve MCI nonstop from CVG, and Allegiant, Frontier, and Southwest are all also at MCI. Allegiant, Frontier, or Southwest could add CVG-MCI nonstop service if the demand is really there. Will Allegiant, Frontier, or Southwest add nonstop service to MCI from CVG?

no they won't. The demand is not there.

maybe not right now, but eventually, I could see WN adding either MCI or STL. I believe WN will expand over time at CVG to similar levels of service we see in IND, CMH and CLE.

ADrum23 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

In addition to Boston, Houston, and Seattle/Tacoma, there are currently no LCC's serving Kansas City nonstop from CVG, Delta is currently the only airline to serve MCI nonstop from CVG, and Allegiant, Frontier, and Southwest are all also at MCI. Allegiant, Frontier, or Southwest could add CVG-MCI nonstop service if the demand is really there. Will Allegiant, Frontier, or Southwest add nonstop service to MCI from CVG?

no they won't. The demand is not there.

maybe not right now, but eventually, I could see WN adding either MCI or STL. I believe WN will expand over time at CVG to similar levels of service we see in IND, CMH and CLE.

I agree WN will expand, I just don't think it will be to MCI. They don't have CLE, CMH or PIT service now, so I don't see CVG being any different. In my mind it would be even less likely that the others because they already have DL to CVG. This might change after the new terminal, but that is still years away.

I've been waiting for WN to add CMH-MCI for a while. There has to be some market there which led Skybus, DL, and YX/F9 to all try it. The difference is WN would be able to feed some connections through in addition to whatever O&D the previous airlines saw.

edit: Looks like another A350 visit last night. This time, it was N501DN.

Jshank83 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

no they won't. The demand is not there.

maybe not right now, but eventually, I could see WN adding either MCI or STL. I believe WN will expand over time at CVG to similar levels of service we see in IND, CMH and CLE.

I agree WN will expand, I just don't think it will be to MCI. They don't have CLE, CMH or PIT service now, so I don't see CVG being any different. In my mind it would be even less likely that the others because they already have DL to CVG. This might change after the new terminal, but that is still years away.

There’s only 2 ways WN’s operation at CVG, it’ll either be successful and they’ll run a similar operation to CMH and IND or it’ll be hard for them to find a niche and it’ll be more like CLE or DTW’s service, there’s no buffer or in between here.