Are There Any Untapped Markets in the International Market Left?

PanzerPowner · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:18 am

I have been wondering, what markets have been under-served or not served at all. So what markets are left out there that are not served on a scale that fits the market that exists or might grow in the close future.

MalevTU134 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:28 am

PanzerPowner wrote:
I have been wondering, what markets have been under-served or not served at all. So what markets are left out there that are not served on a scale that fits the market that exists or might grow in the close future.

Brazil-Australia/NZ?
Scandinavia (probably ARN would be best)-GRU

Having said that, both these markets have decent, if not good, one-stop options.

tysmith95 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:35 am

BOS-YVR BOS-GRU

keitherson · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:47 am

if there's money to be made, airlines are already there. that's how the market works. the notion of an underserved market is a bit silly: after all, if it's underserved, then the yields are high from demand and there's incentive for more service to maximize revenue.

flymia · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:55 am

Florida to Far East comes to mind. MIA/MCO-NRT MIA-HKG. Also MIA-JNB.

joeljack · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:55 am

a recent one I can think of was SFO-TLV. So yes, there are some undiscovered gems, just hard to find!

Swadian · Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:49 am

USA-Africa, USA-India?

b6sea · Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:57 am

keitherson wrote:
if there's money to be made, airlines are already there. that's how the market works. the notion of an underserved market is a bit silly: after all, if it's underserved, then the yields are high from demand and there's incentive for more service to maximize revenue.

I disagree somewhat. While it's true that there are patterns of traffic that exist today (a certain number of people get on a plane every day from City X bound for City Y either via another city or nonstop), it is also true that adding a route stimulates demand. How much that happens really depends on a lot of things and it's definitely true that throwing a plane between two cities does not necessarily, by any means, a viable route create. Further, many airlines are risk averse or have motives for not serving a route that might actually be a viable market, whether to funnel more traffic via their hubs, to not compete with partners, to maintain higher yields on a flight to a nearby city, or because they lack the aircraft to open every route they'd like to open and have to focus on routes that are more profitable than the one not being served, but none of these decisions necessarily mean that it's not a viable market at all.

I think it's fair to say that there are many potentially viable routes not being flown today for many of these reasons and many others I haven't mentioned. It is also fair to say that not every city in the world is going to be connected to every other city in the world, but I tend to believe that there are plenty of routes out there that, if given a shot, could be serious money makers for someone bold enough to put the time and work into making them happen.

aerorobnz · Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:10 am

More Underserved hubs than individual routes - an individual route is no longer as important as overall profitability and network feed
AKL Mostly due to airport neglect. This is a hub perfectly positioned between asia and south america, australia and pretty much all of North America with reasonable 10-12h flights to anywhere.

slcdeltarumd11 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:10 am

I think the ULCC has the potential open up access for cities with no service on NA to KEF then Europe. Quebec City YQB, Ottawa YOW, MCI, STL, BUF, IND, MKE, CMH, CLE all these places can support less then daily service by a ULCC to KEF. Its really not that hard to fill a narrowbody 2x week in summer. I bet we see them go PIT style less then daily, leisure focused only.

rbavfan · Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:18 am

flymia wrote:
Florida to Far East comes to mind. MIA/MCO-NRT MIA-HKG. Also MIA-JNB.

To long & thin a route. If it was doable ANA or Japan wold have years back. The 787 almost made it doable, but not heavy enough cargo loads Same reason PHX-HND/NRT has not been don. PDEW is not high enough & Phoenix-Tokyo cargo market is not big enough to cover the cost.

YIMBY · Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:21 am

keitherson wrote:
if there's money to be made, airlines are already there. that's how the market works. the notion of an underserved market is a bit silly: after all, if it's underserved, then the yields are high from demand and there's incentive for more service to maximize revenue.

That is very true. There may, however, be indirect reasons why A to B is not served, even though at itself there might be market. Other than political and bureaucratic reasons, it might be that neither A-land or B-land airlines have a suitable bird for the route, as such would be an oddball in the fleet, with no other use to support acquiring it. That may also depend on possible flight schedules, given slot constraints, night curfews etc. that make the convenient departure times and efficient hardware usage impossible. Then changes elsewhere may make that flight sustainable.

(Certainly, from my point of view, from my home apt to grandparents apt is underserved, as I need up to 3 connections to reach that :smile:

. More universally thinking, flights from Iran to west may be most untapped at the moment. Also Venezuela is underserved, as well as many other hazardous countries.)

keitherson · Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:45 am

YIMBY wrote:
keitherson wrote:
if there's money to be made, airlines are already there. that's how the market works. the notion of an underserved market is a bit silly: after all, if it's underserved, then the yields are high from demand and there's incentive for more service to maximize revenue.

That is very true. There may, however, be indirect reasons why A to B is not served, even though at itself there might be market. Other than political and bureaucratic reasons, it might be that neither A-land or B-land airlines have a suitable bird for the route, as such would be an oddball in the fleet, with no other use to support acquiring it. That may also depend on possible flight schedules, given slot constraints, night curfews etc. that make the convenient departure times and efficient hardware usage impossible. Then changes elsewhere may make that flight sustainable.

(Certainly, from my point of view, from my home apt to grandparents apt is underserved, as I need up to 3 connections to reach that . More universally thinking, flights from Iran to west may be most untapped at the moment. Also Venezuela is underserved, as well as many other hazardous countries.)

Exactly. From the airline's view, the market from your home to your grandparents apt is not underserved at all

These kind of threads often end up with personal opinions with little basis in reality. That's why, after all, United launched the "Chairman's flight," because that was clearly an underserved market.

Atlwarrior · Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:52 am

I think Charleston SC can support more international traffic.

RWA380 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:07 am

PDX-PEK is on the top of my list as an un-served International market that could sustain a non-stop from say HU, with a tie up with AS on this side of the Pacific & HU's system from PEK & It would be another good option to Asia & India.

SCQ83 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:45 am

MAD-SFO/OAK

BCN-BOS

Those two are the most evident gaps in US-Spain

Also MAD-MCO and MAD-LAS could work IMO (with Norwegian on a low frequency basis)

smi0006 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:23 am

As an Aussie Melbourne boy, I'd have to say: ICN-MEL, CMB-MEL, YVR-MEL. But we have both SYD and AKL to compete with. And NZ are doing a good job of developing AKL into a good hub.

User001 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:30 am

MAN-BKK was number 3 on the list of unserved long haul in the world according to OAG. Last count was around 260,000 indirect passengers a year.

MAN-DEL/BOM is also high in the list too.

log0008 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:38 am

India-Australia direct flights, right now direct flights only represent 8% of total traffic.

Redd · Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:53 am

I think USA & EU to Africa. There is a very limited number of destinations and prices are usually extremely high. I'm guessing this will slowly change with the booming growth in Africa.

TC957 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:19 am

Totally agree on MAN - BKK. I also surprised KLM doesn't fly AMS - MCO.
I think a few seasonal summer routes into EDI from Asia would work, from NRT and BJS particularly. High-end tourism.
Also OSL - NRT ... think of the fishy cargo possibilities.

GCT64 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:27 am

If you want some ideas, just browse through the Skyscanner-Anna "unserved route of the week", they have identified VIE-SFO, BOS-YVR, OSL-PVG, BUD-NYC etc. recently as untapped opportunities.

http://www.anna.aero/unserved-route-of-the-week/

usflyer123 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:03 pm

IIRC, SGN-LAX is the biggest unserved market from the US. also SGN-SFO is in that list, i guess BKK-LAX also have large O&D traffic.

airbazar · Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:27 pm

India-U.S. is arguably the largest under served market in the World. If it wasn't, there would be no ME carriers.
I think Iran is a market about to grow significantly, mainly Iran-Europe.
U.S.-Europe believe it or not, I think it's under-served. The fact that we are seeing LCC's enter the TATL market tells me that there is a lot of pent-up demand.

VSMUT · Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:30 pm

Africa in general. 1.2+ billion people who are getting richer by the day, and air travel is still at a rather primitive level (for various reasons). Roads and railways are poor, and crime/violence is high in large areas. The continent is expected to house 2.5 billion people by 2050.

Dominion301 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:32 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I think the ULCC has the potential open up access for cities with no service on NA to KEF then Europe. Quebec City YQB, Ottawa YOW, MCI, STL, BUF, IND, MKE, CMH, CLE all these places can support less then daily service by a ULCC to KEF. Its really not that hard to fill a narrowbody 2x week in summer. I bet we see them go PIT style less then daily, leisure focused only.

Agreed 100%. Pretty much anything within A320/737MAX range of KEF is definitely ripe for the picking. I'd add YWG to that list too.

obrienct · Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:51 pm

I would Say MSP, It is greatly untapped by international carriers and even some domestic carriers as well, Are they too afraid of Delta?

VCEflyboy · Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:55 pm

smi0006 wrote:
As an Aussie Melbourne boy, I'd have to say: ICN-MEL.

KE was flying the route for peanuts and was bleeding money for long before it was axed. Even Brisbane worked so much better for them.

c933103 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:29 pm

If you google "OAG underserved route ", you can find a comprehensive list for what you have mentioned. The list is also regularly updated

zrs70 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:39 pm

If a plane can make more net flying aaa-bbb, it will.

When the 757 began to fly transatlantic, it filled the longer thinner niche.

Same with the 787.

It's all about range.

If a crj had the range, it would connect Kalamazoo with Belfast.

RJNUT · Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:01 pm

"Flyover country" here in the US needs better access to ULCC transatlantic or even FI and also to EK's vast global network, possibly by way of a WN interline/codeshare type arrangement. We are more or less at the mercy of the US3 for International travel, unless one wants to piece together a "hacker" fare of sorts !

whywhyzee · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:06 pm

YYZ-Southeast Asia is begging for more service.

adamh8297 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:07 pm

BOS-ICN has potential due to market stimulation from massive Seoul population, rumored Samsung center of excellence Cambridge, ICN hub, potential DL JV, B6 feed (if KE or OZ).

c933103 wrote:
If you google "OAG underserved route ", you can find a comprehensive list for what you have mentioned. The list is also regularly updated

In that report - BOS-CUN is underserved but for good reason - lots of people will take a layover to save even 25 or 50 dollars. FOC-JFK is in a similar boat cheap VFR traffic but its so massive I believe Xiamen is going to fly it soon.

bsbisland · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:42 pm

keitherson wrote:
if there's money to be made, airlines are already there. that's how the market works. the notion of an underserved market is a bit silly: after all, if it's underserved, then the yields are high from demand and there's incentive for more service to maximize revenue.

Then tell us why there are so many airlines and routes losing money. This logic does not work in the real world. "Silly" is believing airlines always have perfect information of how demand and yields will behave and take decisions just like in an Economics book showing a market of perfect information.

Yes, there are severeal untapped markets and underserved routes due to a huge variety of reasons.

KaiTak747 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:55 pm

keitherson wrote:
if there's money to be made, airlines are already there. that's how the market works. the notion of an underserved market is a bit silly: after all, if it's underserved, then the yields are high from demand and there's incentive for more service to maximize revenue.

While in many cases that is the case, if you look at FR and EK, they have entered markets in which there was previously negligible traffic and made successes of these markets. FR by creating demand through low fares and EK through connectivity.

Also, there seems to be a trend with these untapped markets with high indirect passenger numbers. Long flight distances and low yields.

c933103 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:58 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
BOS-ICN has potential due to market stimulation from massive Seoul population, rumored Samsung center of excellence Cambridge, ICN hub, potential DL JV, B6 feed (if KE or OZ).

c933103 wrote:
If you google "OAG underserved route ", you can find a comprehensive list for what you have mentioned. The list is also regularly updated

In that report - BOS-CUN is underserved but for good reason - lots of people will take a layover to save even 25 or 50 dollars. FOC-JFK is in a similar boat cheap VFR traffic but its so massive I believe Xiamen is going to fly it soon.

That is true for many of those routes, but if 100k+ people are flying one stop on a single route pair because of fare then that mean there's a room for LCC to cut in, given that the operational cost of flying directly would be lower than transfer and 100k+ mean those one-stop passengers can instead fill a daily 330 with good load factor, unless those are long route like FOC-JFK where 330 cant reach.

PSG55 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:08 pm

I'm still a little surprised that there are so few flights between BHX and the subcontinent. Very large Indian and Pakistani populations in the city and its surrounds. Surely could support more capacity?

In South Africa, I'm surprised there is no direct route between Durban and the UK. Very large English population in Durban and plenty of South African Anglophones. A big city with plenty of business as well as social ties to the UK. Emirates, Turkish Airlines and Qatar now operating from the Middle East but a direct route would be great, to compete with JHB and CPT.

User001 · Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:20 pm

In terms of unserved long haul routes, OAG has these as the top 5:

1) LAX-SGN
2) DAC-JFK
3) MAN-BKK
4) BKK-JFK
5) SFO-SGN

ukoverlander · Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:31 pm

Although perhaps a long and thin route, I would have thought (in the 787 era) that San Francisco to Brussels could be pretty viable. It would link two Star Alliance hubs and also provide for Western USA feed to Africa through the extensive Brussels Airlines African network. Anybody have any thoughts on that?

DFW789ER · Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:25 pm

[quote="Atlwarrior"]I think Charleston SC can support more international traffic.[/qu

Don't hold your breath. There are a dozen if not more larger cities without international service.

ahj2000 · Sat Dec 10, 2016 2:32 am

An AC 175 during peak travel would do quite well, no? Canadia/ens seem to love South Carolina (MYR too)...

1) LAX-SGN-To be served by VN with A350
2) DAC-JFK-Too far/low-fare for a nonstop, leave it to the ME3
3) MAN-BKK- TCX where are you?
4) BKK-JFK- Thai won't come back to the US so probably won't happen for at least 5-10 yrs.
5) SFO-SGN-I'd imagine this comes not long after LAX on VN OR UA makes it nonstop with 788/9.

Swadian · Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:32 am

Here's the OAG list: https://skift.com/wp-content/uploads/20 ... Report.pdf.

Most are to/from Southeast Asia.

thekorean · Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:25 am

ICN-BOS.

A lot of Korean college students in Massachusetts and surrounding areas. And Korean diaspora is not insignificant.

pipeafcr · Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:39 am

ADZ to North America

klm617 · Mon Dec 12, 2016 11:26 am

Detroit to India, Detroit to Poland and Detroit to the Middle East.

BestWestern · Mon Dec 12, 2016 11:50 am

Indonesia -> Europe will become more and more viable as the decade progresses, although the sectors are long. Bali to India and Bali to Pakistan would work.

Iran to the world will open up over the next few years too.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya and Egypt are hopelessly underserved at present as are Cambodia and Myanmar.

PanzerPowner · Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:33 pm

Speaking of Cambodia BestWestern, i know that the LA Area has a large Cambodian Population as i live near a Cambodia Town in Long Beach, i'd see a Cambodia route open up someday into that Untapped Market.

NichCage · Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:28 pm

User001 wrote:
In terms of unserved long haul routes, OAG has these as the top 5:

1) LAX-SGN
2) DAC-JFK
3) MAN-BKK
4) BKK-JFK
5) SFO-SGN

Here are my thoughts on these routes:

1) Vietnam Airlines wants to start this route at some point, so it will most likely be served sometime in the next few years.
2) A Dhaka to New York flight would be pretty long, but did Biman Bangladesh Airlines want to fly a one stop DAC-BHX-JFK & JFK-BHX-DAC?
3) Not surprising, it would be nice to see Thai Airways get on this route. However, I don't think Thai Airways is planning BHX at the moment.
4) I wonder why Thai Airways doesn't operate a one stop flight to JFK (like BKK-ICN-JFK or something). This route will never be started again non-stop.
5) It would be nice to see United Airlines fly direct between SFO & SGN, but we haven't heard anything about it yet. Who knows, maybe it could be a good route for the 787-9 because it can fly far (like how the 787-9 flies between SFO & SIN).

User001 · Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:50 pm

Biman wanted to start DAC-BHX-JFK, but it used to run a DAC-MAN-JFK route and from what I can gather, isn't allowed to change the routing at the moment.

In terms of MAN-BKK, the issue is yield (or lack of it) so has had an issue where no carrier could feasibly serve the route.

However, with low cost airlines like Norwegian, Thomas Cook and NokScoot, heck, even new aircraft like the B788/A350 at Thai Airways, it means there is hope for a route now.

PatrickZ80 · Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:28 pm

Dusseldorf-London is also pretty underserved I think. Only BA and Eurowings on the DUS-LHR route and BA and FlyBe on the DUS-LCY route. There are no DUS-LGW or DUS-STN flights for example. DUS-LGW was served by EasyJet in the past, but they pulled out. Maybe Norwegian can jump in to feed their LGW hub.

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