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AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 981
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:32 am

ADrum23 wrote:

I do think we are getting close to the "max out" point at BNA, the point where WN won't add any new destinations because they wouldn't be worth flying them out of BNA.

There are only four more routes (excluding BNA-PDX) I could see from BNA on WN.

1. BNA-ATL
2. BNA-IND
3. BNA-OMA
4. BNA-OKC

That's it. I don't think they'll ever launch service to the California airports such as SJC, SFO, SMF, ONT, etc. How much more will WN realistically expand at BNA (considering it is smack dab in the middle between ATL and STL)?


There is also BNA-SEA, which WN still doesn't fly year-round.
 
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southwest1675
Posts: 346
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:48 am

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

I do think we are getting close to the "max out" point at BNA, the point where WN won't add any new destinations because they wouldn't be worth flying them out of BNA.

There are only four more routes (excluding BNA-PDX) I could see from BNA on WN.

1. BNA-ATL
2. BNA-IND
3. BNA-OMA
4. BNA-OKC

That's it. I don't think they'll ever launch service to the California airports such as SJC, SFO, SMF, ONT, etc. How much more will WN realistically expand at BNA (considering it is smack dab in the middle between ATL and STL)?


There is also BNA-SEA, which WN still doesn't fly year-round.


Nobody knows why.
 
phluser
Posts: 459
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:20 am

southwest1675 wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

I do think we are getting close to the "max out" point at BNA, the point where WN won't add any new destinations because they wouldn't be worth flying them out of BNA.

There are only four more routes (excluding BNA-PDX) I could see from BNA on WN.

1. BNA-ATL
2. BNA-IND
3. BNA-OMA
4. BNA-OKC

That's it. I don't think they'll ever launch service to the California airports such as SJC, SFO, SMF, ONT, etc. How much more will WN realistically expand at BNA (considering it is smack dab in the middle between ATL and STL)?


There is also BNA-SEA, which WN still doesn't fly year-round.


Nobody knows why.


Demand from the east and BNA is less in the winter than the rest of the year. Demand from SEA is covered by AS and DL; WN is likely much weaker from SEA point of sale than from those competing carriers, so WN depends on BNA and what's east of BNA that connects to BNA. WN could steer more connecting traffic flow through BNA, but likely DEN is WN's preferred east-west gateway, followed by 4-6 or so other stations (MDW, DAL, STL, ATL, PHX, BWI) before WN needs to connect pax through BNA.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:21 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

It's more likely than BNA-OMA. OKC and OMA are small, stagnant stations. SJC is growing right now, and as Nashville's tech stature increases, the link makes more sense.


I guess, but SFO is only 40 minutes away. Could WN make it profitable enough?


OAK and SFO seem to coexist just fine.


I would not shut the door on SJC despite it's proximity to other bay area airports. Nashville has a growing tech industry. While not a totally equal, BA, LH, CA fly to both SFO and SJC. I think it could work domestically. I've driven SFO to Sunnyvale, and it seems like it's a lot longer than it actually is. I'm going to throw a wrench into this and say if someone starts it, it'll be VX on a 319 then let it move over to AS, or perhaps AS itself to start.

The smaller stations in the midwest could probably stir up some traffic headed for Florida for WN.

I would be shocked at BNA-ATL. Delta usually is anywhere from 10-12 flights a day, and there aren't many places on WN you can't get to non-stop from BNA. ATL O&D is fairly small. Most people I know drive it, 4-5 hours depending on where in Atlanta you are headed.
 
ADrum23
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:44 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
I would be shocked at BNA-ATL. Delta usually is anywhere from 10-12 flights a day, and there aren't many places on WN you can't get to non-stop from BNA. ATL O&D is fairly small. Most people I know drive it, 4-5 hours depending on where in Atlanta you are headed.


This is precisely my thinking, and I would say the same with BNA-IND as well. I was really surprised when the Southwest spokesman at the announcement of BNA-MKE and BNA-CUN said those routes are among the most in-demand from the business community.
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:46 pm

Eagerly awaiting to see if NK does BNA, this would be such a relief because there's NK markets that are feasible that F9 won't cover like DTW and DFW.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
ADrum23
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:52 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Eagerly awaiting to see if NK does BNA, this would be such a relief because there's NK markets that are feasible that F9 won't cover like DTW and DFW.


I hope so too, it'd help bring down the fares on the American/Southwest duopoly on the BNA-DFW/DAL route.
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:59 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Eagerly awaiting to see if NK does BNA, this would be such a relief because there's NK markets that are feasible that F9 won't cover like DTW and DFW.


I hope so too, it'd help bring down the fares on the American/Southwest duopoly on the BNA-DFW/DAL route.
I've already created a flight schedule that I think NK would do. Both segments would be on an A320 v2 or A32S. The same aircraft would go to DFW from DTW but BNA is the thru flight, the return can be done on a different aircraft if need be.

DTW-BNA, dep. 9:45am arr. 10:00am
BNA-DFW, dep. 11:25am arr.1:20pm
DFW-BNA, dep. 3:00pm, arr. 4:55pm
BNA-DTW, dep. 6:15pm, arr. 9:08pm
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
ADrum23
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:00 am

What are the loads on the WestJet Encore flight from BNA-YYZ? Is there a chance we could eventually see that upgraded to a mainline flight?
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 1480
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:14 am

ADrum23 wrote:
What are the loads on the WestJet Encore flight from BNA-YYZ? Is there a chance we could eventually see that upgraded to a mainline flight?

Seats Pax Aircraft Month
2106 1467 Westjet YYZ BNA 482 3
2262 1013 Westjet YYZ BNA 482 1
1716 1169 Westjet YYZ BNA 482 2
2017: ATL AMS BCN BWI BOS CDG CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW DXB FLL FCO RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX LCY LGW LHR LOS SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP MUC BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB ORY PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD ZRH
 
AAvgeek744
Posts: 402
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:08 pm

Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:40 am

ADrum23 wrote:
What are the loads on the WestJet Encore flight from BNA-YYZ? Is there a chance we could eventually see that upgraded to a mainline flight?


I actually saw BNA as a destination for Porter. Doesn't seem likely now. Does anyone know if YYC is coming back next summer?

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9? Perhaps, but I think sooner or later NK and F9 are going to get married. Sad because I think Spirit will be the surviving brand, so mwe'll lose all the animal tails.
 
ADrum23
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:03 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
What are the loads on the WestJet Encore flight from BNA-YYZ? Is there a chance we could eventually see that upgraded to a mainline flight?


I actually saw BNA as a destination for Porter. Doesn't seem likely now. Does anyone know if YYC is coming back next summer?

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9? Perhaps, but I think sooner or later NK and F9 are going to get married. Sad because I think Spirit will be the surviving brand, so mwe'll lose all the animal tails.


1. Porter is coming to BNA?

2. Yes, YYC is a seasonal and will run May-October next year.

3. I think F9 would survive over NK in any merger. Spirit has a bad reputation.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 911
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:10 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9?



Didn't F9 fly to PHX last winter? They didn't bring it back this winter.
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:13 am

I think it's a no go for MCO and TPA right now, because in terms of market size, there's plenty of seats already in the market with an LCC, ULCC and a legarcy carrier on MCO. I would say expect DTW & DFW for the first announcement. With FLL, they're going up against B6 and WN. BNA isn't a huge market so remember NK will have to choose healthy O&D destinations. I would say ORD, IAH, BOS and LAX would be part of the expansion but if NK is successful at BNA I don't see why it couldn't be done in the future.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:03 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9?



Didn't F9 fly to PHX last winter? They didn't bring it back this winter.


They may have, I don't remember. I've found it difficult to follow ULCC strategy of less than daily flights. They apparently make sense to the carrier, but since I don't fly them anymore, I tend to forget about their ops.
 
AAvgeek744
Posts: 402
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:08 pm

Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:08 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I think it's a no go for MCO and TPA right now, because in terms of market size, there's plenty of seats already in the market with an LCC, ULCC and a legarcy carrier on MCO. I would say expect DTW & DFW for the first announcement. With FLL, they're going up against B6 and WN. BNA isn't a huge market so remember NK will have to choose healthy O&D destinations. I would say ORD, IAH, BOS and LAX would be part of the expansion but if NK is successful at BNA I don't see why it couldn't be done in the future.


BOS and LAX already are served by three carriers each. If you count MDW, Chicago is also served by three. Not ULCC's, but WN, AA, and DL all have significant numbers of loyal customers in BNA. I can't see NK prying too many pax away from those, just the budget minded travelers.
 
AAvgeek744
Posts: 402
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:08 pm

Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:10 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
What are the loads on the WestJet Encore flight from BNA-YYZ? Is there a chance we could eventually see that upgraded to a mainline flight?


I actually saw BNA as a destination for Porter. Doesn't seem likely now. Does anyone know if YYC is coming back next summer?

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9? Perhaps, but I think sooner or later NK and F9 are going to get married. Sad because I think Spirit will be the surviving brand, so mwe'll lose all the animal tails.


1. Porter is coming to BNA?

2. Yes, YYC is a seasonal and will run May-October next year.

3. I think F9 would survive over NK in any merger. Spirit has a bad reputation.


Re: #1...before WS came to town, I thought Porter would be a good fit. I don't see it happening now though.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:17 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9?



Didn't F9 fly to PHX last winter? They didn't bring it back this winter.


They may have, I don't remember. I've found it difficult to follow ULCC strategy of less than daily flights. They apparently make sense to the carrier, but since I don't fly them anymore, I tend to forget about their ops.


Yes F9 ran PHX-BNA last winter, they had 11 departures in December.
2017: ATL AMS BCN BWI BOS CDG CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW DXB FLL FCO RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX LCY LGW LHR LOS SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP MUC BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB ORY PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD ZRH
 
ADrum23
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:19 am

Midwestindy wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:


Didn't F9 fly to PHX last winter? They didn't bring it back this winter.


They may have, I don't remember. I've found it difficult to follow ULCC strategy of less than daily flights. They apparently make sense to the carrier, but since I don't fly them anymore, I tend to forget about their ops.


Yes F9 ran PHX-BNA last winter, they had 11 departures in December.


I think they also ran BNA-ORD if I am not mistaken, but they no longer do.

In any case, the most likely cities that NK will start from BNA are DTW, DFW and FLL IMO. I could also see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, etc, as well.

I don't really care about NK or F6 anyway, I'd never fly them, but it is nice to see them come in and drive down the fares.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:48 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

They may have, I don't remember. I've found it difficult to follow ULCC strategy of less than daily flights. They apparently make sense to the carrier, but since I don't fly them anymore, I tend to forget about their ops.


Yes F9 ran PHX-BNA last winter, they had 11 departures in December.


I think they also ran BNA-ORD if I am not mistaken, but they no longer do.

In any case, the most likely cities that NK will start from BNA are DTW, DFW and FLL IMO. I could also see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, etc, as well.

I don't really care about NK or F6 anyway, I'd never fly them, but it is nice to see them come in and drive down the fares.


You may be correct about F9 and Chicago. They are back to serving just DEN, LAS, PHL, and MCO.

I've got to say if NK came to BNA, they wouldn't serve any of the three you name. RDU has WN 3x and DL 2x. IND is not served, but that would be a WN add if anybody. STL is WN 3x, of which I'd guess a large portion is transfer. I don't believe it is an O&D market. Also, AFAIK, NK serves neither IND or STL. They'd link to established focus cities first before flying anywhere else.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 911
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sun Sep 17, 2017 3:09 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Yes F9 ran PHX-BNA last winter, they had 11 departures in December.


I think they also ran BNA-ORD if I am not mistaken, but they no longer do.

In any case, the most likely cities that NK will start from BNA are DTW, DFW and FLL IMO. I could also see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, etc, as well.

I don't really care about NK or F6 anyway, I'd never fly them, but it is nice to see them come in and drive down the fares.


You may be correct about F9 and Chicago. They are back to serving just DEN, LAS, PHL, and MCO.

I've got to say if NK came to BNA, they wouldn't serve any of the three you name. RDU has WN 3x and DL 2x. IND is not served, but that would be a WN add if anybody. STL is WN 3x, of which I'd guess a large portion is transfer. I don't believe it is an O&D market. Also, AFAIK, NK serves neither IND or STL. They'd link to established focus cities first before flying anywhere else.


He was saying he could see NK also start service AT those stations not TO those stations from BNA. I am pretty sure he meant just starting it at those stations in general, not to BNA. I misread it at first also.
 
ADrum23
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:24 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

I think they also ran BNA-ORD if I am not mistaken, but they no longer do.

In any case, the most likely cities that NK will start from BNA are DTW, DFW and FLL IMO. I could also see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, etc, as well.

I don't really care about NK or F6 anyway, I'd never fly them, but it is nice to see them come in and drive down the fares.


You may be correct about F9 and Chicago. They are back to serving just DEN, LAS, PHL, and MCO.

I've got to say if NK came to BNA, they wouldn't serve any of the three you name. RDU has WN 3x and DL 2x. IND is not served, but that would be a WN add if anybody. STL is WN 3x, of which I'd guess a large portion is transfer. I don't believe it is an O&D market. Also, AFAIK, NK serves neither IND or STL. They'd link to established focus cities first before flying anywhere else.


He was saying he could see NK also start service AT those stations not TO those stations from BNA. I am pretty sure he meant just starting it at those stations in general, not to BNA. I misread it at first also.


Yes, that is what I meant. My apologies for creating an unintentional ambiguity there. I meant I could see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, not starting routes to them from BNA.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:49 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

You may be correct about F9 and Chicago. They are back to serving just DEN, LAS, PHL, and MCO.

I've got to say if NK came to BNA, they wouldn't serve any of the three you name. RDU has WN 3x and DL 2x. IND is not served, but that would be a WN add if anybody. STL is WN 3x, of which I'd guess a large portion is transfer. I don't believe it is an O&D market. Also, AFAIK, NK serves neither IND or STL. They'd link to established focus cities first before flying anywhere else.


He was saying he could see NK also start service AT those stations not TO those stations from BNA. I am pretty sure he meant just starting it at those stations in general, not to BNA. I misread it at first also.


Yes, that is what I meant. My apologies for creating an unintentional ambiguity there. I meant I could see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, not starting routes to them from BNA.


No need for apologies. We're all avgeeks here :)
 
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southwest1675
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:37 pm

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/n ... on-of.html I think Branson is just looking for attention, but this would be interesting.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:54 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/09/21/another-nonstop-nashvilleflight-to-london-of.html I think Branson is just looking for attention, but this would be interesting.


The link requires a subscription. SRB was in town a couple of weeks ago for the ground breaking of the Virgin Hotel downtown. If I had my druthers I'd prefer VS over BA, but you're probably right. Getting himself a little P. R. I'm surprised by the number of people in Nashville I've talked to that have never heard of the Virgin brand.
 
ADrum23
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:59 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/09/21/another-nonstop-nashvilleflight-to-london-of.html I think Branson is just looking for attention, but this would be interesting.


The link requires a subscription. SRB was in town a couple of weeks ago for the ground breaking of the Virgin Hotel downtown. If I had my druthers I'd prefer VS over BA, but you're probably right. Getting himself a little P. R. I'm surprised by the number of people in Nashville I've talked to that have never heard of the Virgin brand.


Let's see how the BA flight does first before even talking about VS. We need the BA flight to be successful, and personally, I don't want any competition on the route until the BA LHR flight proves itself and becomes a daily flight. While I agree VS is a better airline in general, BA has many more connections to places around the world and is much more useful for business. Plus, securing another London flight is a waste of time for BNA. They need to focus their efforts on landing an additional TATL flight to either CDG, AMS, FRA, etc.

Does someone (who can unlock the article) know if Branson said which airport (LHR or LGW) a hypothetical BNA-London flight on VS would go into?

Also, I might add there are a LOT more worthy cities that deserve VS to London service before Nashville. They still don't even have service to big markets like ORD, DFW, IAH, etc. Plus, I think AUS would be way ahead of BNA in any potential VS expansion into mid-sized markets.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:28 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/09/21/another-nonstop-nashvilleflight-to-london-of.html I think Branson is just looking for attention, but this would be interesting.


The link requires a subscription. SRB was in town a couple of weeks ago for the ground breaking of the Virgin Hotel downtown. If I had my druthers I'd prefer VS over BA, but you're probably right. Getting himself a little P. R. I'm surprised by the number of people in Nashville I've talked to that have never heard of the Virgin brand.


Let's see how the BA flight does first before even talking about VS. We need the BA flight to be successful, and personally, I don't want any competition on the route until the BA LHR flight proves itself and becomes a daily flight. While I agree VS is a better airline in general, BA has many more connections to places around the world and is much more useful for business. Plus, securing another London flight is a waste of time for BNA. They need to focus their efforts on landing an additional TATL flight to either CDG, AMS, FRA, etc.

Does someone (who can unlock the article) know if Branson said which airport (LHR or LGW) a hypothetical BNA-London flight on VS would go into?

Also, I might add there are a LOT more worthy cities that deserve VS to London service before Nashville. They still don't even have service to big markets like ORD, DFW, IAH, etc. Plus, I think AUS would be way ahead of BNA in any potential VS expansion into mid-sized markets.


As southwest1675 said, I think this is just Branson talking, and I think it probably came up at the hotel ground breaking. I doubt VS will serve BNA. There are a few foreign carriers that would add service once the permanent FIS facility is in place, but thats down the road a bit.
 
ADrum23
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:21 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

The link requires a subscription. SRB was in town a couple of weeks ago for the ground breaking of the Virgin Hotel downtown. If I had my druthers I'd prefer VS over BA, but you're probably right. Getting himself a little P. R. I'm surprised by the number of people in Nashville I've talked to that have never heard of the Virgin brand.


Let's see how the BA flight does first before even talking about VS. We need the BA flight to be successful, and personally, I don't want any competition on the route until the BA LHR flight proves itself and becomes a daily flight. While I agree VS is a better airline in general, BA has many more connections to places around the world and is much more useful for business. Plus, securing another London flight is a waste of time for BNA. They need to focus their efforts on landing an additional TATL flight to either CDG, AMS, FRA, etc.

Does someone (who can unlock the article) know if Branson said which airport (LHR or LGW) a hypothetical BNA-London flight on VS would go into?

Also, I might add there are a LOT more worthy cities that deserve VS to London service before Nashville. They still don't even have service to big markets like ORD, DFW, IAH, etc. Plus, I think AUS would be way ahead of BNA in any potential VS expansion into mid-sized markets.


As southwest1675 said, I think this is just Branson talking, and I think it probably came up at the hotel ground breaking. I doubt VS will serve BNA. There are a few foreign carriers that would add service once the permanent FIS facility is in place, but thats down the road a bit.


Agree. I wish they'd stop quoting this kind of stuff and get everyone all wound up. He said it and the BNA Facebook page posted a link to the above article with something along the lines of "We'd love to add you to our BNA family".

Honestly, I don't really see BNA getting a ton more TATL. The most I see (in addition to BA to LHR) is DL to either CDG or AMS and then one or two LCC's, such as CON to FRA, WW to KEF and maybe DY to LGW. That's it. Even with BNA's growth, I don't see them being able to support any more than that (though I could be wrong). I agree about VS, they aren't coming, ever. And frankly, now that London is secured, BNA's main focus for overseas flights needs to turn to Tokyo, which will take a lot longer (and will be a lot harder) to land.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:52 am

ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Let's see how the BA flight does first before even talking about VS. We need the BA flight to be successful, and personally, I don't want any competition on the route until the BA LHR flight proves itself and becomes a daily flight. While I agree VS is a better airline in general, BA has many more connections to places around the world and is much more useful for business. Plus, securing another London flight is a waste of time for BNA. They need to focus their efforts on landing an additional TATL flight to either CDG, AMS, FRA, etc.

Does someone (who can unlock the article) know if Branson said which airport (LHR or LGW) a hypothetical BNA-London flight on VS would go into?

Also, I might add there are a LOT more worthy cities that deserve VS to London service before Nashville. They still don't even have service to big markets like ORD, DFW, IAH, etc. Plus, I think AUS would be way ahead of BNA in any potential VS expansion into mid-sized markets.


As southwest1675 said, I think this is just Branson talking, and I think it probably came up at the hotel ground breaking. I doubt VS will serve BNA. There are a few foreign carriers that would add service once the permanent FIS facility is in place, but thats down the road a bit.


Agree. I wish they'd stop quoting this kind of stuff and get everyone all wound up. He said it and the BNA Facebook page posted a link to the above article with something along the lines of "We'd love to add you to our BNA family".

Honestly, I don't really see BNA getting a ton more TATL. The most I see (in addition to BA to LHR) is DL to either CDG or AMS and then one or two LCC's, such as CON to FRA, WW to KEF and maybe DY to LGW. That's it. Even with BNA's growth, I don't see them being able to support any more than that (though I could be wrong). I agree about VS, they aren't coming, ever. And frankly, now that London is secured, BNA's main focus for overseas flights needs to turn to Tokyo, which will take a lot longer (and will be a lot harder) to land.


I don't see Delta going TATL from Nashville when there are multiple hubs to connect, then again not many people expected IND - CDG. DE to Frankfurt might happen. If DY comes, it won't be to London, that might be a Paris flight. Either Icelandic carrier is possible, but as I understand it KEF has to expand the terminal since both carriers have the same bank times. You can bet state officials and the mayor have and are still talking to JAL. Let's see what happens after some of the expansion on the terminal happens. There really not much space for expansion, domestic or international.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:00 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

As southwest1675 said, I think this is just Branson talking, and I think it probably came up at the hotel ground breaking. I doubt VS will serve BNA. There are a few foreign carriers that would add service once the permanent FIS facility is in place, but thats down the road a bit.


Agree. I wish they'd stop quoting this kind of stuff and get everyone all wound up. He said it and the BNA Facebook page posted a link to the above article with something along the lines of "We'd love to add you to our BNA family".

Honestly, I don't really see BNA getting a ton more TATL. The most I see (in addition to BA to LHR) is DL to either CDG or AMS and then one or two LCC's, such as CON to FRA, WW to KEF and maybe DY to LGW. That's it. Even with BNA's growth, I don't see them being able to support any more than that (though I could be wrong). I agree about VS, they aren't coming, ever. And frankly, now that London is secured, BNA's main focus for overseas flights needs to turn to Tokyo, which will take a lot longer (and will be a lot harder) to land.


I don't see Delta going TATL from Nashville when there are multiple hubs to connect, then again not many people expected IND - CDG. DE to Frankfurt might happen. If DY comes, it won't be to London, that might be a Paris flight. Either Icelandic carrier is possible, but as I understand it KEF has to expand the terminal since both carriers have the same bank times. You can bet state officials and the mayor have and are still talking to JAL. Let's see what happens after some of the expansion on the terminal happens. There really not much space for expansion, domestic or international.


I have a feeling that BNA will get a second full service TATL flight to either CDG or AMS at some point (though probably not for at least 2-3 years). Whether that is on DL, KL, AF, etc, who knows. The reason I said DL was because it seems as though AF and KL don't run as often into secondary markets like BA does (with AUS, MSY, BNA, etc).

What's up next for BNA internationally? My guess is CON or WOW will be entering shortly (within the next 18 months).
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:16 am

Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:52 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.


I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:58 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.


I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.
When will the new FIS be completed, and when will ground break on the BNA vision project?
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:29 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.


I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.


2-3 years seems more realistic?
2017: ATL AMS BCN BWI BOS CDG CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW DXB FLL FCO RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX LCY LGW LHR LOS SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP MUC BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB ORY PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD ZRH
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:42 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.


I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.


2-3 years seems more realistic?


I don't know if that comment was about the facilities or about the demand. As far as the facilities, 2-3 years is realistic. As far as the demand, we may be close to a point where something like an AA 788 3-4 times a week would work (maybe split with a city like IND), but no one runs schedules like that ex-TYO right now. Neither Nashville nor any other mid-sized, flyover country US city is close to the demand required for a daily widebody flight to TYO, and most or all of those cities also lack the front cabin demand for some of the premium-heavy configurations the Japanese carriers run.
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:27 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.


2-3 years seems more realistic?


I don't know if that comment was about the facilities or about the demand. As far as the facilities, 2-3 years is realistic. As far as the demand, we may be close to a point where something like an AA 788 3-4 times a week would work (maybe split with a city like IND), but no one runs schedules like that ex-TYO right now. Neither Nashville nor any other mid-sized, flyover country US city is close to the demand required for a daily widebody flight to TYO, and most or all of those cities also lack the front cabin demand for some of the premium-heavy configurations the Japanese carriers run.


I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:34 pm

flymco753 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.


I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.
When will the new FIS be completed, and when will ground break on the BNA vision project?


An expanded, temporary FIS is under construction on A concourse now. The idea I believe is get it acceptable for next summer when BA arrives. New parking garage and access road changes are already in process. One thing I find frustrating with the BNA Vision, unless they are well hidden, the project is described fairly vaguely. Aside from what I've said above, it mentions expansion of B concourse, but no mention of number of gates. It looks like maybe 3 or 4, then the giant hole where Sims Branch creek runs through becomes a problem. Talk of expansion on D. It's never had jet bridges, looks like it might hold 6. A hotel. Eventual (which means never based on comments of Nashville citizens) light rail links.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:10 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.
When will the new FIS be completed, and when will ground break on the BNA vision project?


An expanded, temporary FIS is under construction on A concourse now. The idea I believe is get it acceptable for next summer when BA arrives. New parking garage and access road changes are already in process. One thing I find frustrating with the BNA Vision, unless they are well hidden, the project is described fairly vaguely. Aside from what I've said above, it mentions expansion of B concourse, but no mention of number of gates. It looks like maybe 3 or 4, then the giant hole where Sims Branch creek runs through becomes a problem. Talk of expansion on D. It's never had jet bridges, looks like it might hold 6. A hotel. Eventual (which means never based on comments of Nashville citizens) light rail links.
Interesting, thanks for that additional info. I look forward to using BNA more so that's why I ask.
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:21 pm

flymco753 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
When will the new FIS be completed, and when will ground break on the BNA vision project?


An expanded, temporary FIS is under construction on A concourse now. The idea I believe is get it acceptable for next summer when BA arrives. New parking garage and access road changes are already in process. One thing I find frustrating with the BNA Vision, unless they are well hidden, the project is described fairly vaguely. Aside from what I've said above, it mentions expansion of B concourse, but no mention of number of gates. It looks like maybe 3 or 4, then the giant hole where Sims Branch creek runs through becomes a problem. Talk of expansion on D. It's never had jet bridges, looks like it might hold 6. A hotel. Eventual (which means never based on comments of Nashville citizens) light rail links.
Interesting, thanks for that additional info. I look forward to using BNA more so that's why I ask.


You may have seen this video. The Vision page has a downloadable pdf, but as I stated it,s a pretty broad overview. I just rewatched it and noted the Concourse A rendering shows a 747 parked at a gate. That's likely not going to happen.

http://bnavisionnashville.com/
 
ADrum23
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:49 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.
When will the new FIS be completed, and when will ground break on the BNA vision project?


An expanded, temporary FIS is under construction on A concourse now. The idea I believe is get it acceptable for next summer when BA arrives. New parking garage and access road changes are already in process. One thing I find frustrating with the BNA Vision, unless they are well hidden, the project is described fairly vaguely. Aside from what I've said above, it mentions expansion of B concourse, but no mention of number of gates. It looks like maybe 3 or 4, then the giant hole where Sims Branch creek runs through becomes a problem. Talk of expansion on D. It's never had jet bridges, looks like it might hold 6. A hotel. Eventual (which means never based on comments of Nashville citizens) light rail links.


I heard that construction on Concourse D as well as the improved ticketing/baggage areas may begin next year, though I cannot confirm that. Though this business taking off presentation may hint at just that.

https://www.flynashville.com/business-diversity-development/Documents/BTO17.pdf

Personally, the lobby/ticketing/baggage area expansion/renovation as well as the Concourse A/Permanent IAB need to be the priorities of BNA vision, but it appears they are going to begin with Concourse D.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:50 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

2-3 years seems more realistic?


I don't know if that comment was about the facilities or about the demand. As far as the facilities, 2-3 years is realistic. As far as the demand, we may be close to a point where something like an AA 788 3-4 times a week would work (maybe split with a city like IND), but no one runs schedules like that ex-TYO right now. Neither Nashville nor any other mid-sized, flyover country US city is close to the demand required for a daily widebody flight to TYO, and most or all of those cities also lack the front cabin demand for some of the premium-heavy configurations the Japanese carriers run.


I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.


I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:29 am

ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

I don't know if that comment was about the facilities or about the demand. As far as the facilities, 2-3 years is realistic. As far as the demand, we may be close to a point where something like an AA 788 3-4 times a week would work (maybe split with a city like IND), but no one runs schedules like that ex-TYO right now. Neither Nashville nor any other mid-sized, flyover country US city is close to the demand required for a daily widebody flight to TYO, and most or all of those cities also lack the front cabin demand for some of the premium-heavy configurations the Japanese carriers run.


I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.


I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.


I was referring to demand, not BNA vision

IMO, 2-3 years is extremely ambitious, if there isn't demand yet for a PHL, MIA, CLT, or PHX flight to Asia, and they are hubs, how would there be demand for even a 3-4x weekly flight to TYO.

I also think it would be really out of character for AA to run a route like that, when they don't even have Asia service from CLT, MIA, PHL, or PHX. AUS, RDU, and IND are probably even likely to get TPAC service before BNA but that is still a little ways down the road.


Btw, before anyone says anything, yes I am aware that MIA is close to getting TPAC service....
2017: ATL AMS BCN BWI BOS CDG CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW DXB FLL FCO RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX LCY LGW LHR LOS SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP MUC BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB ORY PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD ZRH
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:47 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.


I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.


I was referring to demand, not BNA vision

IMO, 2-3 years is extremely ambitious, if there isn't demand yet for a PHL, MIA, CLT, or PHX flight to Asia, and they are hubs, how would there be demand for even a 3-4x weekly flight to TYO.

I also think it would be really out of character for AA to run a route like that, when they don't even have Asia service from CLT, MIA, PHL, or PHX. AUS, RDU, and IND are probably even likely to get TPAC service before BNA but that is still a little ways down the road.


Btw, before anyone says anything, yes I am aware that MIA is close to getting TPAC service....


Excellent points. I feel in the coming years (probably at the turn of the decade), after the TATL service arms race has died down, airports will turn their attention to landing service to Asia. It will begin with the biggest markets/hubs (such as MIA, PHL, PHX, CLT, etc) and then move down to the mid-sized markets (AUS, RDU, BNA, IND, etc). Though because of the greater distance to Asia, I have a feeling the Asian carriers will be more selective and unlike TATL service, only select mid-sized airports may end up landing them (the most likely being among the four I mentioned prior).

It will be interesting to see what happens here. Will we see the same intense arms race with TPAC service that we have seen with TATL service?
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:13 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.


I was referring to demand, not BNA vision

IMO, 2-3 years is extremely ambitious, if there isn't demand yet for a PHL, MIA, CLT, or PHX flight to Asia, and they are hubs, how would there be demand for even a 3-4x weekly flight to TYO.

I also think it would be really out of character for AA to run a route like that, when they don't even have Asia service from CLT, MIA, PHL, or PHX. AUS, RDU, and IND are probably even likely to get TPAC service before BNA but that is still a little ways down the road.


Btw, before anyone says anything, yes I am aware that MIA is close to getting TPAC service....


Excellent points. I feel in the coming years (probably at the turn of the decade), after the TATL service arms race has died down, airports will turn their attention to landing service to Asia. It will begin with the biggest markets/hubs (such as MIA, PHL, PHX, CLT, etc) and then move down to the mid-sized markets (AUS, RDU, BNA, IND, etc). Though because of the greater distance to Asia, I have a feeling the Asian carriers will be more selective and unlike TATL service, only select mid-sized airports may end up landing them (the most likely being among the four I mentioned prior).

It will be interesting to see what happens here. Will we see the same intense arms race with TPAC service that we have seen with TATL service?


"IF" BNA gets a nonstop to NRT, it will be on JL metal, not AA.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:34 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.


I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.


I was referring to demand, not BNA vision

IMO, 2-3 years is extremely ambitious, if there isn't demand yet for a PHL, MIA, CLT, or PHX flight to Asia, and they are hubs, how would there be demand for even a 3-4x weekly flight to TYO.

I also think it would be really out of character for AA to run a route like that, when they don't even have Asia service from CLT, MIA, PHL, or PHX. AUS, RDU, and IND are probably even likely to get TPAC service before BNA but that is still a little ways down the road.


Btw, before anyone says anything, yes I am aware that MIA is close to getting TPAC service....


CLT's problem is a weak local market to East Asia. I'm not sure how we sensibly make statements like "IND is likely to get TPAC service before BNA." Because the city-by-city breakdown of East Asia demand varies so much by US gateway, it really depends on who starts flying these secondary markets first. If KE opens 10 new TPAC cities before JL does, IND is more likely to get TPAC service first. If JL moves first, BNA is more likely.
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:13 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.


I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.


I was referring to demand, not BNA vision

IMO, 2-3 years is extremely ambitious, if there isn't demand yet for a PHL, MIA, CLT, or PHX flight to Asia, and they are hubs, how would there be demand for even a 3-4x weekly flight to TYO.

I also think it would be really out of character for AA to run a route like that, when they don't even have Asia service from CLT, MIA, PHL, or PHX. AUS, RDU, and IND are probably even likely to get TPAC service before BNA but that is still a little ways down the road.


Btw, before anyone says anything, yes I am aware that MIA is close to getting TPAC service....


As with all posters in a particular city, they think they deserve international service. Ask people in Austin five years ago they would have a flight to LHR, soon the be upgraded to a 744. While AUS is growing faster than Nashville, this city is growing faster than many other American cities, both in population and pax using the airport. Demand today will be much different demand than in a few years. Carriers are being rather ambitious in some of their route planning. No one knows if new routes will work. I have no idea if BNA-LHR will succeed any more than you know IND-CDG will. Nashville is as unique as Indianapolis, or St. Louis, or any mid-level city clamoring for international service. I can say without BNA Vision, BA would not have announced Nashville TATL routes will arrive before TYO does, but it'll happen.

On the flip side, the U.S. is about due a downturn in the economy based on historical data. For all we know, DY will flounder, thin routes will dry up. The truth is, no one knows for sure. Opinions do not turn into facts just because we want them to.
 
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:06 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:

On the flip side, the U.S. is about due a downturn in the economy based on historical data. For all we know, DY will flounder, thin routes will dry up. The truth is, no one knows for sure. Opinions do not turn into facts just because we want them to.


Well yeah, but that goes without saying...

Cubsrule wrote:
it really depends on who starts flying these secondary markets first. If KE opens 10 new TPAC cities before JL does, IND is more likely to get TPAC service first. If JL moves first, BNA is more likely.


And you say this because.....
2017: ATL AMS BCN BWI BOS CDG CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW DXB FLL FCO RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX LCY LGW LHR LOS SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP MUC BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB ORY PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD ZRH
 
Cubsrule
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:49 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
it really depends on who starts flying these secondary markets first. If KE opens 10 new TPAC cities before JL does, IND is more likely to get TPAC service first. If JL moves first, BNA is more likely.


And you say this because.....


BNA is a stronger Japan market and IND is a stronger Korea and China market.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:59 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
it really depends on who starts flying these secondary markets first. If KE opens 10 new TPAC cities before JL does, IND is more likely to get TPAC service first. If JL moves first, BNA is more likely.


And you say this because.....


BNA is a stronger Japan market and IND is a stronger Korea and China market.


Not exactly, few people know just how much Japanese investment there is around IND.
For starters, among all U.S. states, Indiana has the largest amount of Japanese investment per capita.
And out of US states, Indiana has the 3rd most Americans employed by Japanese companies (only behind California and Ohio)

Looking at the Fortune Global 2000 here is just a glimpse of the major Japanese companies with large presences or US/NA hqs in close proximity to IND in Indiana

Toyota Motor, Toyota Industries, Toyota Boshoku, Toyota Tsusho, Subaru Corp, Honda Motor, Honda Performance Development, Aisin, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Motors, Sony DADC, SMC Corp, Hitachi, NSK, and the list goes on and on...

So, IND is definitely stronger in Japan than it is in Korea and China
2017: ATL AMS BCN BWI BOS CDG CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW DXB FLL FCO RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX LCY LGW LHR LOS SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP MUC BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB ORY PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD ZRH
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 12584
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: What's Going On In Nashville? Part 2

Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:34 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

And you say this because.....


BNA is a stronger Japan market and IND is a stronger Korea and China market.


Not exactly, few people know just how much Japanese investment there is around IND.
For starters, among all U.S. states, Indiana has the largest amount of Japanese investment per capita.
And out of US states, Indiana has the 3rd most Americans employed by Japanese companies (only behind California and Ohio)

Looking at the Fortune Global 2000 here is just a glimpse of the major Japanese companies with large presences or US/NA hqs in close proximity to IND in Indiana

Toyota Motor, Toyota Industries, Toyota Boshoku, Toyota Tsusho, Subaru Corp, Honda Motor, Honda Performance Development, Aisin, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Motors, Sony DADC, SMC Corp, Hitachi, NSK, and the list goes on and on...

So, IND is definitely stronger in Japan than it is in Korea and China


As of the Brookings data from 2011, BNA was about 20 percent larger to Japan and IND was larger (I can't remember the gap and am on my phone but it was of a similar magnitude) to Korea. My suspicion is that the gap to Korea has closed a bit with recent Korean investments in middle Tennessee (most notably Hankook), but I don't know why we would expect that the relative Japan numbers are much different now than they were then. The consulate in Nashville but not in Indianapolis is certainly strong circumstantial evidence of the cities' relative importance to the government of Japan.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
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