ADrum23 wrote:

I do think we are getting close to the "max out" point at BNA, the point where WN won't add any new destinations because they wouldn't be worth flying them out of BNA.

There are only four more routes (excluding BNA-PDX) I could see from BNA on WN.

1. BNA-ATL
2. BNA-IND
3. BNA-OMA
4. BNA-OKC

That's it. I don't think they'll ever launch service to the California airports such as SJC, SFO, SMF, ONT, etc. How much more will WN realistically expand at BNA (considering it is smack dab in the middle between ATL and STL)?

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

I do think we are getting close to the "max out" point at BNA, the point where WN won't add any new destinations because they wouldn't be worth flying them out of BNA.

There are only four more routes (excluding BNA-PDX) I could see from BNA on WN.

1. BNA-ATL
2. BNA-IND
3. BNA-OMA
4. BNA-OKC

That's it. I don't think they'll ever launch service to the California airports such as SJC, SFO, SMF, ONT, etc. How much more will WN realistically expand at BNA (considering it is smack dab in the middle between ATL and STL)?

There is also BNA-SEA, which WN still doesn't fly year-round.

southwest1675 wrote:

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

I do think we are getting close to the "max out" point at BNA, the point where WN won't add any new destinations because they wouldn't be worth flying them out of BNA.

There are only four more routes (excluding BNA-PDX) I could see from BNA on WN.

1. BNA-ATL
2. BNA-IND
3. BNA-OMA
4. BNA-OKC

That's it. I don't think they'll ever launch service to the California airports such as SJC, SFO, SMF, ONT, etc. How much more will WN realistically expand at BNA (considering it is smack dab in the middle between ATL and STL)?

There is also BNA-SEA, which WN still doesn't fly year-round.

Nobody knows why.

Cubsrule wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

It's more likely than BNA-OMA. OKC and OMA are small, stagnant stations. SJC is growing right now, and as Nashville's tech stature increases, the link makes more sense.

I guess, but SFO is only 40 minutes away. Could WN make it profitable enough?

OAK and SFO seem to coexist just fine.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

I would be shocked at BNA-ATL. Delta usually is anywhere from 10-12 flights a day, and there aren't many places on WN you can't get to non-stop from BNA. ATL O&D is fairly small. Most people I know drive it, 4-5 hours depending on where in Atlanta you are headed.

flymco753 wrote:

Eagerly awaiting to see if NK does BNA, this would be such a relief because there's NK markets that are feasible that F9 won't cover like DTW and DFW.

ADrum23 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Eagerly awaiting to see if NK does BNA, this would be such a relief because there's NK markets that are feasible that F9 won't cover like DTW and DFW.

I hope so too, it'd help bring down the fares on the American/Southwest duopoly on the BNA-DFW/DAL route.

ADrum23 wrote:

What are the loads on the WestJet Encore flight from BNA-YYZ? Is there a chance we could eventually see that upgraded to a mainline flight?

ADrum23 wrote:

What are the loads on the WestJet Encore flight from BNA-YYZ? Is there a chance we could eventually see that upgraded to a mainline flight?

AAvgeek744 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

What are the loads on the WestJet Encore flight from BNA-YYZ? Is there a chance we could eventually see that upgraded to a mainline flight?

I actually saw BNA as a destination for Porter. Doesn't seem likely now. Does anyone know if YYC is coming back next summer?

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9? Perhaps, but I think sooner or later NK and F9 are going to get married. Sad because I think Spirit will be the surviving brand, so mwe'll lose all the animal tails.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9?

Jshank83 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9?

Didn't F9 fly to PHX last winter? They didn't bring it back this winter.

flymco753 wrote:

I think it's a no go for MCO and TPA right now, because in terms of market size, there's plenty of seats already in the market with an LCC, ULCC and a legarcy carrier on MCO. I would say expect DTW & DFW for the first announcement. With FLL, they're going up against B6 and WN. BNA isn't a huge market so remember NK will have to choose healthy O&D destinations. I would say ORD, IAH, BOS and LAX would be part of the expansion but if NK is successful at BNA I don't see why it couldn't be done in the future.

ADrum23 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

What are the loads on the WestJet Encore flight from BNA-YYZ? Is there a chance we could eventually see that upgraded to a mainline flight?

I actually saw BNA as a destination for Porter. Doesn't seem likely now. Does anyone know if YYC is coming back next summer?

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9? Perhaps, but I think sooner or later NK and F9 are going to get married. Sad because I think Spirit will be the surviving brand, so mwe'll lose all the animal tails.

1. Porter is coming to BNA?

2. Yes, YYC is a seasonal and will run May-October next year.

3. I think F9 would survive over NK in any merger. Spirit has a bad reputation.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

As for NK, I think they'd add MCO as well. FLL maybe, but it's got B6 and WN. TPA maybe. LAS isn't too far fetched either. Sooner or later, someone else besides WN is going to fly to PHX. I don't think it'll be AA. It might be a potential NK city. F9?

Didn't F9 fly to PHX last winter? They didn't bring it back this winter.

They may have, I don't remember. I've found it difficult to follow ULCC strategy of less than daily flights. They apparently make sense to the carrier, but since I don't fly them anymore, I tend to forget about their ops.

Midwestindy wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

Didn't F9 fly to PHX last winter? They didn't bring it back this winter.

They may have, I don't remember. I've found it difficult to follow ULCC strategy of less than daily flights. They apparently make sense to the carrier, but since I don't fly them anymore, I tend to forget about their ops.

Yes F9 ran PHX-BNA last winter, they had 11 departures in December.

ADrum23 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

They may have, I don't remember. I've found it difficult to follow ULCC strategy of less than daily flights. They apparently make sense to the carrier, but since I don't fly them anymore, I tend to forget about their ops.

Yes F9 ran PHX-BNA last winter, they had 11 departures in December.

I think they also ran BNA-ORD if I am not mistaken, but they no longer do.

In any case, the most likely cities that NK will start from BNA are DTW, DFW and FLL IMO. I could also see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, etc, as well.

I don't really care about NK or F6 anyway, I'd never fly them, but it is nice to see them come in and drive down the fares.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Yes F9 ran PHX-BNA last winter, they had 11 departures in December.

I think they also ran BNA-ORD if I am not mistaken, but they no longer do.

In any case, the most likely cities that NK will start from BNA are DTW, DFW and FLL IMO. I could also see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, etc, as well.

I don't really care about NK or F6 anyway, I'd never fly them, but it is nice to see them come in and drive down the fares.

You may be correct about F9 and Chicago. They are back to serving just DEN, LAS, PHL, and MCO.

I've got to say if NK came to BNA, they wouldn't serve any of the three you name. RDU has WN 3x and DL 2x. IND is not served, but that would be a WN add if anybody. STL is WN 3x, of which I'd guess a large portion is transfer. I don't believe it is an O&D market. Also, AFAIK, NK serves neither IND or STL. They'd link to established focus cities first before flying anywhere else.

Jshank83 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

I think they also ran BNA-ORD if I am not mistaken, but they no longer do.

In any case, the most likely cities that NK will start from BNA are DTW, DFW and FLL IMO. I could also see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, etc, as well.

I don't really care about NK or F6 anyway, I'd never fly them, but it is nice to see them come in and drive down the fares.

You may be correct about F9 and Chicago. They are back to serving just DEN, LAS, PHL, and MCO.

I've got to say if NK came to BNA, they wouldn't serve any of the three you name. RDU has WN 3x and DL 2x. IND is not served, but that would be a WN add if anybody. STL is WN 3x, of which I'd guess a large portion is transfer. I don't believe it is an O&D market. Also, AFAIK, NK serves neither IND or STL. They'd link to established focus cities first before flying anywhere else.

He was saying he could see NK also start service AT those stations not TO those stations from BNA. I am pretty sure he meant just starting it at those stations in general, not to BNA. I misread it at first also.

ADrum23 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

You may be correct about F9 and Chicago. They are back to serving just DEN, LAS, PHL, and MCO.

I've got to say if NK came to BNA, they wouldn't serve any of the three you name. RDU has WN 3x and DL 2x. IND is not served, but that would be a WN add if anybody. STL is WN 3x, of which I'd guess a large portion is transfer. I don't believe it is an O&D market. Also, AFAIK, NK serves neither IND or STL. They'd link to established focus cities first before flying anywhere else.

He was saying he could see NK also start service AT those stations not TO those stations from BNA. I am pretty sure he meant just starting it at those stations in general, not to BNA. I misread it at first also.

Yes, that is what I meant. My apologies for creating an unintentional ambiguity there. I meant I could see NK starting service at RDU, IND, STL, not starting routes to them from BNA.

southwest1675 wrote:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/09/21/another-nonstop-nashvilleflight-to-london-of.html I think Branson is just looking for attention, but this would be interesting.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/09/21/another-nonstop-nashvilleflight-to-london-of.html I think Branson is just looking for attention, but this would be interesting.

The link requires a subscription. SRB was in town a couple of weeks ago for the ground breaking of the Virgin Hotel downtown. If I had my druthers I'd prefer VS over BA, but you're probably right. Getting himself a little P. R. I'm surprised by the number of people in Nashville I've talked to that have never heard of the Virgin brand.

ADrum23 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/09/21/another-nonstop-nashvilleflight-to-london-of.html I think Branson is just looking for attention, but this would be interesting.

The link requires a subscription. SRB was in town a couple of weeks ago for the ground breaking of the Virgin Hotel downtown. If I had my druthers I'd prefer VS over BA, but you're probably right. Getting himself a little P. R. I'm surprised by the number of people in Nashville I've talked to that have never heard of the Virgin brand.

Let's see how the BA flight does first before even talking about VS. We need the BA flight to be successful, and personally, I don't want any competition on the route until the BA LHR flight proves itself and becomes a daily flight. While I agree VS is a better airline in general, BA has many more connections to places around the world and is much more useful for business. Plus, securing another London flight is a waste of time for BNA. They need to focus their efforts on landing an additional TATL flight to either CDG, AMS, FRA, etc.

Does someone (who can unlock the article) know if Branson said which airport (LHR or LGW) a hypothetical BNA-London flight on VS would go into?

Also, I might add there are a LOT more worthy cities that deserve VS to London service before Nashville. They still don't even have service to big markets like ORD, DFW, IAH, etc. Plus, I think AUS would be way ahead of BNA in any potential VS expansion into mid-sized markets.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

The link requires a subscription. SRB was in town a couple of weeks ago for the ground breaking of the Virgin Hotel downtown. If I had my druthers I'd prefer VS over BA, but you're probably right. Getting himself a little P. R. I'm surprised by the number of people in Nashville I've talked to that have never heard of the Virgin brand.

Let's see how the BA flight does first before even talking about VS. We need the BA flight to be successful, and personally, I don't want any competition on the route until the BA LHR flight proves itself and becomes a daily flight. While I agree VS is a better airline in general, BA has many more connections to places around the world and is much more useful for business. Plus, securing another London flight is a waste of time for BNA. They need to focus their efforts on landing an additional TATL flight to either CDG, AMS, FRA, etc.

Does someone (who can unlock the article) know if Branson said which airport (LHR or LGW) a hypothetical BNA-London flight on VS would go into?

Also, I might add there are a LOT more worthy cities that deserve VS to London service before Nashville. They still don't even have service to big markets like ORD, DFW, IAH, etc. Plus, I think AUS would be way ahead of BNA in any potential VS expansion into mid-sized markets.

As southwest1675 said, I think this is just Branson talking, and I think it probably came up at the hotel ground breaking. I doubt VS will serve BNA. There are a few foreign carriers that would add service once the permanent FIS facility is in place, but thats down the road a bit.

ADrum23 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

Let's see how the BA flight does first before even talking about VS. We need the BA flight to be successful, and personally, I don't want any competition on the route until the BA LHR flight proves itself and becomes a daily flight. While I agree VS is a better airline in general, BA has many more connections to places around the world and is much more useful for business. Plus, securing another London flight is a waste of time for BNA. They need to focus their efforts on landing an additional TATL flight to either CDG, AMS, FRA, etc.

Does someone (who can unlock the article) know if Branson said which airport (LHR or LGW) a hypothetical BNA-London flight on VS would go into?

Also, I might add there are a LOT more worthy cities that deserve VS to London service before Nashville. They still don't even have service to big markets like ORD, DFW, IAH, etc. Plus, I think AUS would be way ahead of BNA in any potential VS expansion into mid-sized markets.

As southwest1675 said, I think this is just Branson talking, and I think it probably came up at the hotel ground breaking. I doubt VS will serve BNA. There are a few foreign carriers that would add service once the permanent FIS facility is in place, but thats down the road a bit.

Agree. I wish they'd stop quoting this kind of stuff and get everyone all wound up. He said it and the BNA Facebook page posted a link to the above article with something along the lines of "We'd love to add you to our BNA family".

Honestly, I don't really see BNA getting a ton more TATL. The most I see (in addition to BA to LHR) is DL to either CDG or AMS and then one or two LCC's, such as CON to FRA, WW to KEF and maybe DY to LGW. That's it. Even with BNA's growth, I don't see them being able to support any more than that (though I could be wrong). I agree about VS, they aren't coming, ever. And frankly, now that London is secured, BNA's main focus for overseas flights needs to turn to Tokyo, which will take a lot longer (and will be a lot harder) to land.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

As southwest1675 said, I think this is just Branson talking, and I think it probably came up at the hotel ground breaking. I doubt VS will serve BNA. There are a few foreign carriers that would add service once the permanent FIS facility is in place, but thats down the road a bit.

Agree. I wish they'd stop quoting this kind of stuff and get everyone all wound up. He said it and the BNA Facebook page posted a link to the above article with something along the lines of "We'd love to add you to our BNA family".

Honestly, I don't really see BNA getting a ton more TATL. The most I see (in addition to BA to LHR) is DL to either CDG or AMS and then one or two LCC's, such as CON to FRA, WW to KEF and maybe DY to LGW. That's it. Even with BNA's growth, I don't see them being able to support any more than that (though I could be wrong). I agree about VS, they aren't coming, ever. And frankly, now that London is secured, BNA's main focus for overseas flights needs to turn to Tokyo, which will take a lot longer (and will be a lot harder) to land.

I don't see Delta going TATL from Nashville when there are multiple hubs to connect, then again not many people expected IND - CDG. DE to Frankfurt might happen. If DY comes, it won't be to London, that might be a Paris flight. Either Icelandic carrier is possible, but as I understand it KEF has to expand the terminal since both carriers have the same bank times. You can bet state officials and the mayor have and are still talking to JAL. Let's see what happens after some of the expansion on the terminal happens. There really not much space for expansion, domestic or international.

southwest1675 wrote:

Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.

Midwestindy wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.

2-3 years seems more realistic?

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.

2-3 years seems more realistic?

I don't know if that comment was about the facilities or about the demand. As far as the facilities, 2-3 years is realistic. As far as the demand, we may be close to a point where something like an AA 788 3-4 times a week would work (maybe split with a city like IND), but no one runs schedules like that ex-TYO right now. Neither Nashville nor any other mid-sized, flyover country US city is close to the demand required for a daily widebody flight to TYO, and most or all of those cities also lack the front cabin demand for some of the premium-heavy configurations the Japanese carriers run.

flymco753 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

Seasonal to FRA on Condor seems reasonable. I already know a few people who would use it. I think Tokyo could come sooner than we think. I've seen some people thinking 5-6 years for that. I'm thinking 2-3 to be completely honest. Probably wouldn't happen until the new permanent IAB is complete.

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.

When will the new FIS be completed, and when will ground break on the BNA vision project?

AAvgeek744 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.

When will the new FIS be completed, and when will ground break on the BNA vision project?

An expanded, temporary FIS is under construction on A concourse now. The idea I believe is get it acceptable for next summer when BA arrives. New parking garage and access road changes are already in process. One thing I find frustrating with the BNA Vision, unless they are well hidden, the project is described fairly vaguely. Aside from what I've said above, it mentions expansion of B concourse, but no mention of number of gates. It looks like maybe 3 or 4, then the giant hole where Sims Branch creek runs through becomes a problem. Talk of expansion on D. It's never had jet bridges, looks like it might hold 6. A hotel. Eventual (which means never based on comments of Nashville citizens) light rail links.

flymco753 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

When will the new FIS be completed, and when will ground break on the BNA vision project?

An expanded, temporary FIS is under construction on A concourse now. The idea I believe is get it acceptable for next summer when BA arrives. New parking garage and access road changes are already in process. One thing I find frustrating with the BNA Vision, unless they are well hidden, the project is described fairly vaguely. Aside from what I've said above, it mentions expansion of B concourse, but no mention of number of gates. It looks like maybe 3 or 4, then the giant hole where Sims Branch creek runs through becomes a problem. Talk of expansion on D. It's never had jet bridges, looks like it might hold 6. A hotel. Eventual (which means never based on comments of Nashville citizens) light rail links.

Interesting, thanks for that additional info. I look forward to using BNA more so that's why I ask.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

I would agree on the Tokyo flight. It could probably be done with the temporary FIS since the ground times for such a flight and the BA flight wouldn't overlap. 2-3 years seems more realistic.

When will the new FIS be completed, and when will ground break on the BNA vision project?

An expanded, temporary FIS is under construction on A concourse now. The idea I believe is get it acceptable for next summer when BA arrives. New parking garage and access road changes are already in process. One thing I find frustrating with the BNA Vision, unless they are well hidden, the project is described fairly vaguely. Aside from what I've said above, it mentions expansion of B concourse, but no mention of number of gates. It looks like maybe 3 or 4, then the giant hole where Sims Branch creek runs through becomes a problem. Talk of expansion on D. It's never had jet bridges, looks like it might hold 6. A hotel. Eventual (which means never based on comments of Nashville citizens) light rail links.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

2-3 years seems more realistic?

I don't know if that comment was about the facilities or about the demand. As far as the facilities, 2-3 years is realistic. As far as the demand, we may be close to a point where something like an AA 788 3-4 times a week would work (maybe split with a city like IND), but no one runs schedules like that ex-TYO right now. Neither Nashville nor any other mid-sized, flyover country US city is close to the demand required for a daily widebody flight to TYO, and most or all of those cities also lack the front cabin demand for some of the premium-heavy configurations the Japanese carriers run.

I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.

ADrum23 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

I don't know if that comment was about the facilities or about the demand. As far as the facilities, 2-3 years is realistic. As far as the demand, we may be close to a point where something like an AA 788 3-4 times a week would work (maybe split with a city like IND), but no one runs schedules like that ex-TYO right now. Neither Nashville nor any other mid-sized, flyover country US city is close to the demand required for a daily widebody flight to TYO, and most or all of those cities also lack the front cabin demand for some of the premium-heavy configurations the Japanese carriers run.

I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.

I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.

Midwestindy wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.

I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.

I was referring to demand, not BNA vision

IMO, 2-3 years is extremely ambitious, if there isn't demand yet for a PHL, MIA, CLT, or PHX flight to Asia, and they are hubs, how would there be demand for even a 3-4x weekly flight to TYO.

I also think it would be really out of character for AA to run a route like that, when they don't even have Asia service from CLT, MIA, PHL, or PHX. AUS, RDU, and IND are probably even likely to get TPAC service before BNA but that is still a little ways down the road.


Btw, before anyone says anything, yes I am aware that MIA is close to getting TPAC service....

ADrum23 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.

I was referring to demand, not BNA vision

IMO, 2-3 years is extremely ambitious, if there isn't demand yet for a PHL, MIA, CLT, or PHX flight to Asia, and they are hubs, how would there be demand for even a 3-4x weekly flight to TYO.

I also think it would be really out of character for AA to run a route like that, when they don't even have Asia service from CLT, MIA, PHL, or PHX. AUS, RDU, and IND are probably even likely to get TPAC service before BNA but that is still a little ways down the road.


Btw, before anyone says anything, yes I am aware that MIA is close to getting TPAC service....

Excellent points. I feel in the coming years (probably at the turn of the decade), after the TATL service arms race has died down, airports will turn their attention to landing service to Asia. It will begin with the biggest markets/hubs (such as MIA, PHL, PHX, CLT, etc) and then move down to the mid-sized markets (AUS, RDU, BNA, IND, etc). Though because of the greater distance to Asia, I have a feeling the Asian carriers will be more selective and unlike TATL service, only select mid-sized airports may end up landing them (the most likely being among the four I mentioned prior).

It will be interesting to see what happens here. Will we see the same intense arms race with TPAC service that we have seen with TATL service?

Midwestindy wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.

I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.

I was referring to demand, not BNA vision

IMO, 2-3 years is extremely ambitious, if there isn't demand yet for a PHL, MIA, CLT, or PHX flight to Asia, and they are hubs, how would there be demand for even a 3-4x weekly flight to TYO.

I also think it would be really out of character for AA to run a route like that, when they don't even have Asia service from CLT, MIA, PHL, or PHX. AUS, RDU, and IND are probably even likely to get TPAC service before BNA but that is still a little ways down the road.


Btw, before anyone says anything, yes I am aware that MIA is close to getting TPAC service....

Midwestindy wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

I wouldn't expect a daily flight to TYO, and I believe there is precedent in flying less than daily (to start). IIRC, BOS and SAN did not start out as daily for JL, though not totally certain. While not as large of a presence as west coast cities, having two major Japanese companies, with industrial facilities + HQ's in Nashville, there are people getting there somehow. Should current city growth continue, I believe BNA can support a flight to Japan at some point in the not too distant future.

I agree it will happen, but I don't think it will until the early to mid 2020's. The Asian carriers are not yet really expanding into mid-sized markets. BNA will get additional TATL flights before seeing JL to NRT.

I was referring to demand, not BNA vision

IMO, 2-3 years is extremely ambitious, if there isn't demand yet for a PHL, MIA, CLT, or PHX flight to Asia, and they are hubs, how would there be demand for even a 3-4x weekly flight to TYO.

I also think it would be really out of character for AA to run a route like that, when they don't even have Asia service from CLT, MIA, PHL, or PHX. AUS, RDU, and IND are probably even likely to get TPAC service before BNA but that is still a little ways down the road.


Btw, before anyone says anything, yes I am aware that MIA is close to getting TPAC service....

AAvgeek744 wrote:

On the flip side, the U.S. is about due a downturn in the economy based on historical data. For all we know, DY will flounder, thin routes will dry up. The truth is, no one knows for sure. Opinions do not turn into facts just because we want them to.

Cubsrule wrote:

it really depends on who starts flying these secondary markets first. If KE opens 10 new TPAC cities before JL does, IND is more likely to get TPAC service first. If JL moves first, BNA is more likely.

Midwestindy wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

it really depends on who starts flying these secondary markets first. If KE opens 10 new TPAC cities before JL does, IND is more likely to get TPAC service first. If JL moves first, BNA is more likely.

And you say this because.....

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

it really depends on who starts flying these secondary markets first. If KE opens 10 new TPAC cities before JL does, IND is more likely to get TPAC service first. If JL moves first, BNA is more likely.

And you say this because.....

BNA is a stronger Japan market and IND is a stronger Korea and China market.

Midwestindy wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

And you say this because.....

BNA is a stronger Japan market and IND is a stronger Korea and China market.

Not exactly, few people know just how much Japanese investment there is around IND.
For starters, among all U.S. states, Indiana has the largest amount of Japanese investment per capita.
And out of US states, Indiana has the 3rd most Americans employed by Japanese companies (only behind California and Ohio)

Looking at the Fortune Global 2000 here is just a glimpse of the major Japanese companies with large presences or US/NA hqs in close proximity to IND in Indiana

Toyota Motor, Toyota Industries, Toyota Boshoku, Toyota Tsusho, Subaru Corp, Honda Motor, Honda Performance Development, Aisin, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Motors, Sony DADC, SMC Corp, Hitachi, NSK, and the list goes on and on...

So, IND is definitely stronger in Japan than it is in Korea and China