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OA940
Posts: 1991
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 6:18 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:59 am

wjcandee wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Sorry, but that ''thunk'' is bothering me too much.


It was intentional, for effect.

Usually, I am the one who makes sure to say, "Usually, I am the one" rather than "I usually am the one", or, more perniciously, "To walk quickly down the street" rather than "To quickly walk down the street", thus avoiding the split infinitive. I heard the split infinitive in the Star Trek opening as a kid, and I was expected to be bothered by it. ("To boldly go".) Goodness gracious, I speak like that, too. All to avoid disapproving glares from those who taught me this tongue. Yikes what they did to me. Sounds like you had a similar experience.


Well I'm European, but I really speak fluent English, and I can relate to some degree. Whoever made this language was drunk and high. So yeah. I kinda get that.
 
77H
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:27 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:18 am

klwright69 wrote:
I subscribe to the WSJ and read the article. You really aren't missing much. The article is not long and the information that is relevant is posted in this thread. No one is surprised that ATL is the most profitbale for DL. It is interesting that I think it may have been Jeff Smisek that once said that domestic flights really only exist to feed international flights. Now things have changed at may appear.


Yeah because Snake-in-the-grass Smisek had it all figured out... :roll:
 
coairman
Posts: 169
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 2010 8:31 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 1:55 pm

Maybe expand IAD into new southern markets that compete with CLT's AA and ATL's DL and other northern markets.

IAD-MLB
IAD-EYW (seasonal)
IAD-JAN
IAD-LEX
IAD-MKE (northern)
IAD-SBN (northern)
IAD-MQT (northern)
IAD-FWA (northern)
IAD-CAK (northern)
IAD-TVC (northern seasonal)
IAD-MGM
IAD-BHM
IAD-JAN
IAD-BTR
IAD-SHV
IAD-PNS
IAD-TLH
IAD-SRQ
IAD-MOB
IAD-ILM
IAD-ELP
IAD-TUS

The only problem that may occur is that it might canabalise traffic from other competing UA hubs like IAH and ORD.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3671
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 2:06 pm

77H wrote:
How do you figure? UA has led AA and WN in on-time arrivals A:00 nearly the entire year, UA has lead AA and WN in quarterly earnings this year to date and UAL stock is trading handedly higher than AA, DL or WN? Obviously one can rank an airline in a myriad of ways all day long but your assertion that it is a weak or lesser airline is wildly inaccurate.

I wouldn't go so far as to say a "weak airline" but definitely the weakest in terms of domestic offering.

The variance in on-time you're citing isn't going to drive much customer choice. If anything it just allows UA to talk about it, doubt many customers care that UA was 1% more on time than AA. It is certainly a plus compared to where UA was two years ago though which was definitely a detractor of customer demand. I've talked to several friends who travel for work (mostly on WN) and they were extremely suprised to learn that WN was last in on-time among the majors... and they didn't care. It's more of a shoulder shrug like "that's nice" or "what are you gonna do?". Price and schedule are more important.

Quarterly earnings: UA is far larger than WN as a whole, AA is still going through their merger. Not saying it's not a point of comparison, but it's one small datapoint and it reflects UA's international business which no one would say is weak. Domestic is what needs help.

Stock Price: You're using the wrong metric as the airlines all have different numbers of shares outstanding. Market Capitalization is a better way to compare what shareholders think is the absolute value of the company: UA: $23.5B AA: $25.3B WN: $29.7B DL: $37.8B (UA least valuable)
 
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LAXdude1023
Posts: 8475
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 2:56 pm

MDW22L31C wrote:
I hope ORD-ONT is on the list. AA never gave up on ONT like united did.


If it didn't work from IAH its not going to work from ORD.

As for smaller cities out of IAH, not happening. I wish it would. I would give anything for UA to partner with a carrier that does flights on 30 seat prop planes and bring back ACT, TYR, and DRT. But all we can do is dream about that.
 
phluser
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 2:57 pm

coairman wrote:
Maybe expand IAD into new southern markets that compete with CLT's AA and ATL's DL and other northern markets.

IAD-MLB
IAD-EYW (seasonal)
IAD-JAN
IAD-LEX
IAD-MKE (northern)
IAD-SBN (northern)
IAD-MQT (northern)
IAD-FWA (northern)
IAD-CAK (northern)
IAD-TVC (northern seasonal)
IAD-MGM
IAD-BHM
IAD-JAN
IAD-BTR
IAD-SHV
IAD-PNS
IAD-TLH
IAD-SRQ
IAD-MOB
IAD-ILM
IAD-ELP
IAD-TUS

The only problem that may occur is that it might canabalise traffic from other competing UA hubs like IAH and ORD.


a. I think IAD overlaps with EWR the most. That said, there are still some UA markets with nonstops to IAD and not EWR, like MDT. With EWR being de-slotted, UA could move that MDT-IAD flight to MDT-EWR and be able to sell more international one stops like flights to BOM and DEL. But right now, the flight is to IAD. Ironically, if I was in Central PA and looking to head to India, at that point, since UA lacks an EWR connecting flight, I'd be inclined drive to IAD and fly EK.
b. The problem with IAD is that it is far from DC. Would a pax from a small market like AGS, wind up choosing say AGS-CLT-DCA on AA over the nonstop to IAD? There might be some, as there is a preference to use DCA often.
c. IAD has higher operating costs. So, if UA were to sell a AGS-IAD-BOS ticket for $200 and AA were to sell it via CLT, or DL via ATL, for the same price, UA's profit margin is lower. So far, UA has not been interested in really building up IAD domestic.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5886
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:19 pm

OOer wrote:
8. DAB-ORD


DAB had a new service survey up on their website earlier this year with several airlines and destinations as options for "Who and where would you like to fly?", though no specific combinations were mentioned. Both UA and Chicago were listed.
 
IPFreely
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Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:29 pm

77H wrote:
How do you figure? UA has led AA and WN in on-time arrivals A:00 nearly the entire year,


Those are mainline rankings. Expansion to smaller cities will be mostly or completely by regional airlines. UA having a great A:00 ranking is meaningless when I'm flying a GoJet or Shuttle America flight.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 13453
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:53 pm

dc10lover wrote:

Airlnes see UA as a weak airline. UA is the lesser of the 4 main carriers.


77H wrote:
How do you figure? UA has led AA and WN in on-time arrivals A:00 nearly the entire year, UA has lead AA and WN in quarterly earnings this year to date and UAL stock is trading handedly higher than AA, DL or WN? Obviously one can rank an airline in a myriad of ways all day long but your assertion that it is a weak or lesser airline is wildly inaccurate.


There are lots of criteria one could use to assess weakness, but in terms of domestic RPMs, UA may be #4 behind AA, DL, (and WN, which does not, in monthly traffic, split domestic vs international). See the October YTD traffic reports.

Number of domestic destinations?

Number of domestic destinations served by 2-class aircraft?

Maybe UA execs are coming around to a certain reality: measured by fraction of international RPMs to total, UA is the most international airline among the US4. It's also the one with the lowest market capitalization.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1449
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
dc10lover wrote:

Airlnes see UA as a weak airline. UA is the lesser of the 4 main carriers.


77H wrote:
How do you figure? UA has led AA and WN in on-time arrivals A:00 nearly the entire year, UA has lead AA and WN in quarterly earnings this year to date and UAL stock is trading handedly higher than AA, DL or WN? Obviously one can rank an airline in a myriad of ways all day long but your assertion that it is a weak or lesser airline is wildly inaccurate.


There are lots of criteria one could use to assess weakness, but in terms of domestic RPMs, UA may be #4 behind AA, DL, (and WN, which does not, in monthly traffic, split domestic vs international). See the October YTD traffic reports.

Number of domestic destinations?

Number of domestic destinations served by 2-class aircraft?

Maybe UA execs are coming around to a certain reality: measured by fraction of international RPMs to total, UA is the most international airline among the US4. It's also the one with the lowest market capitalization.


This is a pretty pointless debate that is so far afield of adding new small city destinations.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 2161
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:17 pm

As others have noted, these remarks can be interpreted several different ways. But in light of UA's announced departure from a couple of upstate New York markets in recent weeks, I'd be more willing to bet the emphasis will be upon expansion of existing smaller UA markets with only a very modest increase in completely new markets.
 
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enilria
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:22 pm

coairman wrote:
Maybe expand IAD into new southern markets that compete with CLT's AA and ATL's DL and other northern markets.

IAD-MLB
IAD-EYW (seasonal)
IAD-JAN
IAD-LEX
IAD-MKE (northern)
IAD-SBN (northern)
IAD-MQT (northern)
IAD-FWA (northern)
IAD-CAK (northern)
IAD-TVC (northern seasonal)
IAD-MGM
IAD-BHM
IAD-JAN
IAD-BTR
IAD-SHV
IAD-PNS
IAD-TLH
IAD-SRQ
IAD-MOB
IAD-ILM
IAD-ELP
IAD-TUS

The only problem that may occur is that it might canabalise traffic from other competing UA hubs like IAH and ORD.

I would expect zero expansion at IAD. There was nothing positive said in the investor update.
 
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cic777
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2007 8:40 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:47 pm

Here's hoping that UA is looking to get back into CIC. After the way UA/OO dissed that market with highly unreliable and rude customer service, I'm hoping that maybe UA will look at CIC-LAX or CIC-DEN. People don't realize how large the market really is. A local group advocating for the return of air service is even looking at trying to build a new terminal. I know it seems to be a bit of putting the cart before the horse, but I think they are doing it right. jetchico.org for more info
Last edited by cic777 on Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
rrapynot
Posts: 137
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 2:27 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:47 pm

The airport manager for STS has hinted in local media that STS-DEN is likely.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 15185
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:35 pm

Flighty wrote:
The US is a big country and the vast majority of money and business/leisure activity + traffic are NOT in New York or LA. A lot is, but most isn't. And nearly all of the profitable opportunity isn't.

That's not true.

Well, then again, depends on how one defines "profitable."
No one's touching the likes of NYC/LAX/SFO/MIA in terms of aggregate profit, as they're massive markets.
Marginally though, not so much, as they also have massive competition. It's not uncommon to see flights throughout the west for under $99, on network carriers.
 
dc10lover
Posts: 1751
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:11 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:07 pm

[*]
OOer wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
GEG - ORD is larger than PSC.


True, but GEG has nonstop service to MSP on Delta, and service to MDW on Southwest.

I wish it was year round though to MDW. And what is defined as "small cities"? It would be nice but i doubt UA will ever serve Yakima, Washington & Wenatchee, Washington again. Nearby Pasco, Washington has UA though.
 
jetero
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Citiesu

Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:34 pm

phluser wrote:
c. IAD has higher operating costs. So, if UA were to sell a AGS-IAD-BOS ticket for $200 and AA were to sell it via CLT, or DL via ATL, for the same price, UA's profit margin is lower. So far, UA has not been interested in really building up IAD domestic.


No. Airport costs in the US are largely fixed. Very little marginal airport operating costs involved in adding new service.
 
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klm617
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:55 pm

There is a good chance Pellston and Youngstown will be on that list
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5886
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:15 pm

klm617 wrote:
There is a good chance Pellston and Youngstown will be on that list


YNG would be interesting. Did UA see enough from the short-lived ADI flights to finally pull the trigger on coming back?
 
910A
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:24 pm

coairman wrote:
Maybe expand IAD into new southern markets that compete with CLT's AA and ATL's DL and other northern markets.
IAD-MQT (northern)


As in Marquette, Michigan? :o Some how I doubt the demand is there to support a flight to IAD, they are finally getting one flight to MSP, I think in March.
 
flyinryan99
Posts: 1555
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2001 6:54 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:37 pm

At the investor day they said there were several cities that were in the Chicago catchment area that they could serve regionally. The way I am taking it (FWIW), there are markets like LSE RST TOL MHK that only AA serves from ORD that they think they can compete in. I don't think there are 20 from ORD, but definitely a handful they could easily make work without needing too many aircraft to do so.
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 534
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 1:05 am

ORD is in lign for: CMI, JLN, TRI, MFE, AMA/LBB, SHV, BTR, MGM, and the return of Canadian cities. Let's see if this is real. Also, word in Dallas is that a "few more dots will be connected at ORD."
 
mhkansan
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Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2010 9:02 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 2:11 am

I think UA could make a go of MHK - especially to DEN! I think an ORD flight may be a success as well.
 
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knope2001
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 4:28 am

If they truly intend to add 20 new small cities you really get into marginal territory. Stuff like AMA-ORD or FWA-IAD don't count because UA* already serves Amarillo and Fort Wayne. Finding 20 new cities not already served by United and then coming up with plausible routes is not that easy.

Although Dulles is not the most robust, thriving hub it's a necessity if you're trying to come up with 20 plausible new United airports. Some of these markets are so (comparably) small that you just can't discount the local traffic on possible city pairs. At Montgomery, for example, Dulles is the obvious choice based on the market. Washington is the top destination from MGM, twice the size of NYC, 4x the size of Chicago and 5x the size of Houston. There aren't enough connecting traffic flows from Montgomery to the west and northwest to justify MGM-IAH or MGM-ORD given the small local markets to Chicago and Houston. So Dulles it is for Montgomery because of the big local market and the ability to serve MGM-IAD-NYC connections. IAD is something of a necessary evil in coming up with 20 new UA cities.

Everything I came up with is out of ORD, EWR, IAD, IAH or DEN. There are so few markets of notable size out west not served by United in one way or another. So when you look at non-UA airports west of the Rockies few have a reasonable shot at making new flights to DEN, SFO or LAX work.

Here's what I'd categorize as the top 20 small cities for United to add and the likely route or routes.

Chattanooga - Newark and Houston
Long Island Islip - O'Hare
Wilmington NC - O'Hare and/or Newark
Tallahassee - Houston and/or Dulles
Augusta - Newark
Newport News - O'Hare and/or Newark
Fayetteville, NC - Newark or Dulles
Tri Cities TN - O'Hare
Gainesville - Newark or Dulles
Bloomington IL - O'Hare
Santa Rosa - Denver
Montgomery - Dulles
Newburgh - O'Hare
Rochester MN - O'Hare
Toledo - O'Hare
Columbia MO - Denver
LaCrosse - O'Hare
Champaign - O'Hare
Manhattan KS - Denver
Youngstown - O'Hare

I wouldn't bet the farm that each of these would be money makers. But opportunities get pretty thin pretty fast when you're looking for at least 20 small airports to add not already seeing some United service. Some of the airports/routes suggested by others are EAS cities and the odds of unsubsidized UA coming in are remote. United could turn around and return to some fairly recent drops like Elmira, Yuma and Waco but not so likely. The lack of a hub in the Southeast makes the prospects for United in places like Daytona Beach, Dothan, and New Bern difficult. But I think if they are going for at least 20 new cities, the list I came up with are among their best prospects . It will be interesting to see what comes of this. But the speculation is fun!
Last edited by knope2001 on Sun Nov 20, 2016 4:36 am, edited 4 times in total.
 
phluser
Posts: 741
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Citiesu

Sun Nov 20, 2016 4:32 am

jetero wrote:
phluser wrote:
c. IAD has higher operating costs. So, if UA were to sell a AGS-IAD-BOS ticket for $200 and AA were to sell it via CLT, or DL via ATL, for the same price, UA's profit margin is lower. So far, UA has not been interested in really building up IAD domestic.


No. Airport costs in the US are largely fixed. Very little marginal airport operating costs involved in adding new service.


That's not true. Airline costs (on a per passenger basis) at an airport vary and are not fixed.
Re: IAD
http://www.insidenova.com/news/arlingto ... 8d1bd.html
 
mtnwest1979
Posts: 2211
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:23 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 4:41 am

knope2001 wrote:
If they truly intend to add 20 new small cities you really get into marginal territory. Stuff like AMA-ORD or FWA-IAD don't count because UA* already serves Amarillo and Fort Wayne. Finding 20 new cities not already served by United and then coming up with plausible routes is not that easy.

Although Dulles is not the most robust, thriving hub it's a necessity if you're trying to come up with 20 plausible new United airports. Some of these markets are so (comparably) small that you just can't discount the local traffic on possible city pairs. At Montgomery, for example, Dulles is the obvious choice based on the market. Washington is the top destination from MGM, twice the size of NYC, 4x the size of Chicago and 5x the size of Houston. There aren't enough connecting traffic flows from Montgomery to the west and northwest to justify MGM-IAH or MGM-ORD given the small local markets to Chicago and Houston. So Dulles it is for Montgomery because of the big local market and the ability to serve MGM-IAD-NYC connections. IAD is something of a necessary evil in coming up with 20 new UA cities.

Everything I came up with is out of ORD, EWR, IAD, IAH or DEN. There are so few markets of notable size out west not served by United in one way or another. So when you look at non-UA airports west of the Rockies few have a reasonable shot at making new flights to DEN, SFO or LAX work.

Here's what I'd categorize as the top 20 small cities for United to add and the likely route or routes.

Chattanooga - Newark and Houston
Long Island Islip - O'Hare
Wilmington NC - O'Hare and/or Newark
Tallahassee - Houston and/or Dulles
Augusta - Newark
Newport News - O'Hare and/or Newark
Fayetteville, NC - Newark or Dulles
Tri Cities TN - O'Hare
Gainesville - Newark or Dulles
Bloomington IL - O'Hare
Santa Rosa - Denver
Montgomery - Dulles
Newburgh - O'Hare
Rochester MN - O'Hare
Toledo - O'Hare
Columbia MO - Denver
LaCrosse - O'Hare
Champaign - O'Hare
Manhattan KS - Denver
Youngstown - O'Hare

I wouldn't bet the farm that each of these would be money makers. But opportunities get pretty thin pretty fast when you're looking for at least 20 small airports to add not already seeing some United service. Some of the airports/routes suggested by others are EAS cities and the odds of unsubsidized UA coming in are remote. United could turn around and return to some fairly recent drops like Elmira, Yuma and Waco but not so likely. The lack of a hub in the Southeast makes the prospects for United in places like Daytona Beach, Dothan, and New Bern difficult. But I think if they are going for at least 20 new cities, the list I came up with are among their best prospects . It will be interesting to see what comes of this. But the speculation is fun!



They are already starting/started CHA very recently.
 
flight152
Posts: 3666
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2000 8:04 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:30 am

mtnwest1979 wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
If they truly intend to add 20 new small cities you really get into marginal territory. Stuff like AMA-ORD or FWA-IAD don't count because UA* already serves Amarillo and Fort Wayne. Finding 20 new cities not already served by United and then coming up with plausible routes is not that easy.

Although Dulles is not the most robust, thriving hub it's a necessity if you're trying to come up with 20 plausible new United airports. Some of these markets are so (comparably) small that you just can't discount the local traffic on possible city pairs. At Montgomery, for example, Dulles is the obvious choice based on the market. Washington is the top destination from MGM, twice the size of NYC, 4x the size of Chicago and 5x the size of Houston. There aren't enough connecting traffic flows from Montgomery to the west and northwest to justify MGM-IAH or MGM-ORD given the small local markets to Chicago and Houston. So Dulles it is for Montgomery because of the big local market and the ability to serve MGM-IAD-NYC connections. IAD is something of a necessary evil in coming up with 20 new UA cities.

Everything I came up with is out of ORD, EWR, IAD, IAH or DEN. There are so few markets of notable size out west not served by United in one way or another. So when you look at non-UA airports west of the Rockies few have a reasonable shot at making new flights to DEN, SFO or LAX work.

Here's what I'd categorize as the top 20 small cities for United to add and the likely route or routes.

Chattanooga - Newark and Houston
Long Island Islip - O'Hare
Wilmington NC - O'Hare and/or Newark
Tallahassee - Houston and/or Dulles
Augusta - Newark
Newport News - O'Hare and/or Newark
Fayetteville, NC - Newark or Dulles
Tri Cities TN - O'Hare
Gainesville - Newark or Dulles
Bloomington IL - O'Hare
Santa Rosa - Denver
Montgomery - Dulles
Newburgh - O'Hare
Rochester MN - O'Hare
Toledo - O'Hare
Columbia MO - Denver
LaCrosse - O'Hare
Champaign - O'Hare
Manhattan KS - Denver
Youngstown - O'Hare

I wouldn't bet the farm that each of these would be money makers. But opportunities get pretty thin pretty fast when you're looking for at least 20 small airports to add not already seeing some United service. Some of the airports/routes suggested by others are EAS cities and the odds of unsubsidized UA coming in are remote. United could turn around and return to some fairly recent drops like Elmira, Yuma and Waco but not so likely. The lack of a hub in the Southeast makes the prospects for United in places like Daytona Beach, Dothan, and New Bern difficult. But I think if they are going for at least 20 new cities, the list I came up with are among their best prospects . It will be interesting to see what comes of this. But the speculation is fun!



They are already starting/started CHA very recently.

CHA-ORD/EWR began sometime last month.
 
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atypical
Posts: 802
Joined: Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:28 am

Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:43 am

knope2001 wrote:
If they truly intend to add 20 new small cities you really get into marginal territory. Stuff like AMA-ORD or FWA-IAD don't count because UA* already serves Amarillo and Fort Wayne. Finding 20 new cities not already served by United and then coming up with plausible routes is not that easy.

Although Dulles is not the most robust, thriving hub it's a necessity if you're trying to come up with 20 plausible new United airports. Some of these markets are so (comparably) small that you just can't discount the local traffic on possible city pairs. At Montgomery, for example, Dulles is the obvious choice based on the market. Washington is the top destination from MGM, twice the size of NYC, 4x the size of Chicago and 5x the size of Houston. There aren't enough connecting traffic flows from Montgomery to the west and northwest to justify MGM-IAH or MGM-ORD given the small local markets to Chicago and Houston. So Dulles it is for Montgomery because of the big local market and the ability to serve MGM-IAD-NYC connections. IAD is something of a necessary evil in coming up with 20 new UA cities.

Everything I came up with is out of ORD, EWR, IAD, IAH or DEN. There are so few markets of notable size out west not served by United in one way or another. So when you look at non-UA airports west of the Rockies few have a reasonable shot at making new flights to DEN, SFO or LAX work.

Here's what I'd categorize as the top 20 small cities for United to add and the likely route or routes.

Chattanooga - Newark and Houston
Long Island Islip - O'Hare
Wilmington NC - O'Hare and/or Newark
Tallahassee - Houston and/or Dulles
Augusta - Newark
Newport News - O'Hare and/or Newark
Fayetteville, NC - Newark or Dulles
Tri Cities TN - O'Hare
Gainesville - Newark or Dulles
Bloomington IL - O'Hare
Santa Rosa - Denver
Montgomery - Dulles
Newburgh - O'Hare
Rochester MN - O'Hare
Toledo - O'Hare
Columbia MO - Denver
LaCrosse - O'Hare
Champaign - O'Hare
Manhattan KS - Denver
Youngstown - O'Hare

I wouldn't bet the farm that each of these would be money makers. But opportunities get pretty thin pretty fast when you're looking for at least 20 small airports to add not already seeing some United service. Some of the airports/routes suggested by others are EAS cities and the odds of unsubsidized UA coming in are remote. United could turn around and return to some fairly recent drops like Elmira, Yuma and Waco but not so likely. The lack of a hub in the Southeast makes the prospects for United in places like Daytona Beach, Dothan, and New Bern difficult. But I think if they are going for at least 20 new cities, the list I came up with are among their best prospects . It will be interesting to see what comes of this. But the speculation is fun!


This is the best list I have seen. The one exception is Islip. UA is certainly not taking just the city size related to the closest town or town owning the airport. In this case looking at Suffolk county with 1.5 million or so takes it out of the small city comparison. Being only 35 miles away from JFK also makes it an airport serving (part of) the greater NYC area not just Suffolk county.
 
mnflyer11
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:51 am

As a former RST resident, I know the airport's talked with Frontier in the past about possible Denver service. Might United be their ticket to the Mile High City given RST has no westbound flights, or would dueling with AA for O'Hare be more worth it financially?
 
jetero
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Citiesu

Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:44 am

phluser wrote:
That's not true. Airline costs (on a per passenger basis) at an airport vary and are not fixed.
Re: IAD
http://www.insidenova.com/news/arlingto ... 8d1bd.html


No sir. Isn't it funny how this site rips apart journalists for their inability to understand the industry until they find something that confirms their understanding of the world? (Note UA 747-400 in old livery in article and the caption implying UA still has 744 service from IAD.)

I actually give this reporter some credit. He got it closer to right than most . . . but still so far away

From the article:

"Airlines – and hence their passengers – pay higher fees at Dulles than at Reagan National or Baltimore-Washington International (BWI) Thurgood Marshall airports because operating costs at Dulles include debt service for a slew of recent capital improvements.

As part of their lease agreements with MWAA, airlines cover their share of operating expenses at Dulles and Reagan National airports. Airlines divide those expenses by the number of people boarding their airplanes to come up with a “cost per enplanement” figure."

Let's take it by clause.

"Airlines – and hence their passengers – pay higher fees,"

ABSOLUTELY WRONG. Passengers pay airfares (which are set by the airline), federal excise tax, 9/11 security fee tax, USCIS user fees, and the passenger facility charge (or PFC). The only fee that the airport has control over is the PFC. The PFC is the exact same at IAD as it is at BWI and DCA. I really wish people on this site would understand that, not just for IAD, BWI, or DCA, but this idea that airports can create air service by reducing fees, which aren't arbitrary and are restricted by federal law, and don't make a damned bit of difference anyway when it comes to air service.

And before the next clause, it is worth noting that it is absolutely illegal for any airport operator in the country to recover from airlines more than what they incur in costs. This is a condition of receiving federal grants. The business terms of how those costs are recovered vary by airport because they are negotiated between the airline and the airport operator, just like a company negotiates with landlord. Any surplus must be reinvested in airport facilities. There are only a handful of airports that don't have negotiated agreements with airlines, but setting rates and charges for the use of those facilities is a matter of federal law and must use cost recovery principles. If you want to put yourself to sleep, you can read the federal regulations that apply to airport operators who cannot reach agreement with airlines:

https://www.faa.gov/airports/airport_compliance/ (click link for Policy and Procedures Concerning the Use of Airport Revenue)

"because operating costs at Dulles include debt service for a slew of recent capital improvements."

Partially true. IAD's costs have grown because during UA's bankruptcy MWAA proceeded with improvements for another runway (which I think had UA's support) and the AeroTrain. But if you were a manager of Dulles 10 years ago and had the inveterate complaining of people who couldn't be bothered to ride a mobile lounge or didn't have a Metro connection, what would you do? You're criticizing them now for what you think are bad decisions, but what would you do? Give the airlines the use of the terminal and airfield for free? It's AGAINST FEDERAL LAW.

You should also remember that when these decisions were made IAD was UA's fastest growing and most profitable hub through the 1990s.

"As part of their lease agreements with MWAA, airlines cover their share of operating expenses at Dulles and Reagan National airports. Airlines divide those expenses by the number of people boarding their airplanes to come up with a “cost per enplanement” figure."

First clause is correct, second clause isn't. Airlines have signed up for long-term leases that prescribe how their landing fees and terminal rents will be calculated. Those leases use cost accounting methodologies to carve up costs between cost centers. But the costs are the costs. Divide $100 million by 5 million passengers and it's $20. Divide it by 20 million and it's $5. But the costs are still $100 million. United can add a flight to Latrobe and there are no marginal airport costs.

CPE is used in the airport industry to provide a benchmark of operating costs among airports. It is NOT a fee that is charged by airports. It is calculated by dividing the total payments by airlines by the number of passengers that are enplaned. And CPE can vary widely by airline at an airport, from $5 to $20 as in the example above. But, at a hub airport, costs are fixed for the hub airline. And those costs need to be weighed against revenue potential. The problem is local IAD market doesn't have much revenue potential at a sustainable size, so it becomes death by a thousand cuts. What's the saying? Go big or go home. Decide to compete or not. But opening a flight to Shreveport and Mobile isn't going to change anything.

(None of the above should be taken as an endorsement of UA's operations at IAD. But saying that UA will incur more fees to connect people from ALB to CHS is absolutely ridiculous. The problems are not that simple . . . that's why they are problems.)
 
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admanager
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:18 am

Knope2001...UA already does Fayetteville NC to IAD on Commutair. Lets replace that then with FLO (Florence SC) to IAD.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 8:02 am

I'll take a stab at 20 new UA markets:

1) Wilmington, NC (IAD and/or EWR, ORD)
2) Melbourne, FL (EWR)
3) Grand Forks, ND (ORD and/or DEN)
4) Augusta, GA (IAD)
5) Cheyenne, WY (DEN)
6) Tri Cities, TN (IAD and/or ORD)
7) Chattanooga, TN (any of IAD, IAH, ORD, or EWR)
8) Newburgh, NY (ORD and/or IAD)
9) Islip, NY (ORD and/or IAD)
10) Jacksonville, NC (IAD)
11) Roswell, NM (DEN)
12) New Haven, CT (ORD and/or IAD)
13) Montgomery, AL (IAD and/or IAH)
14) Bellingham, WA (SFO and/or DEN)
15) St. Croix, VI (EWR)
16) Ponce, PR (EWR)
17) Toledo, OH (ORD)
18) Oakland, CA (DEN)
19) Rochester, MN (ORD)
20) La Crosse, WI (ORD)

There's also a tranche of airports United doesn't serve, but they could make a play for military traffic on: Watertown (NY), Lawton (OK), Manhattan (KS), and Columbus (GA).

Others that popped to mind, but I didn't mention (mostly third tier Midwest/Western markets): Pullman and Walla Walla (WA), Salem (OR), Provo (UT), Palmdale (CA), Flagstaff (AZ), Worcester (MA), Joplin (MO), Waterloo, Sioux City, and Dubuque (IA).Champlain and Bloomington (IL), Youngstown (OH), Parkersburg (WV), and Marquette (MI).
 
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intotheair
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 8:43 am

I don't see UA starting Cheyenne unless if Great Lakes goes under. It's a city of barely more than 60,000 within 90 minutes of DEN, and the Wyoming economy hasn't done as well recently with the declining interest in oil shale.
 
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knope2001
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:21 am

mtnwest1979 wrote:
They are already starting/started CHA very recently.


flight152 wrote:
CHA-ORD/EWR began sometime last month.


Drat! Out of town for the weekend and forgot to pack a newer Skyguide in my briefcase, so I was working with a July version and the T100's which go through August. On the bright side as I looked at numbers CHA seemed like a “why aren’t they here already” kind of airport. And what do you know, they just came in. So that's sort of affirming.

admanager wrote:
Knope2001...UA already does Fayetteville NC to IAD on Commutair. Lets replace that then with FLO (Florence SC) to IAD.


I should have caught that. I was struggling over putting Jacksonville NC on the list or not when Fayetteville popped in my head as someplace I thought I’d accidentally overlooked. Before my knee-jerk addition I should have checked more carefully if FAY was already a United city – it is. Even though it’s (yet) another Dulles city I think perhaps Jacksonville NC is better replacement than Florence. OAJ’s top markets are San Diego, New York, Boston and Los Angeles and Dulles works for those.

atypical wrote:
This is the best list I have seen. The one exception is Islip. UA is certainly not taking just the city size related to the closest town or town owning the airport. In this case looking at Suffolk county with 1.5 million or so takes it out of the small city comparison. Being only 35 miles away from JFK also makes it an airport serving (part of) the greater NYC area not just Suffolk county.

The ”small city” criteria I interpreted as smaller commercial airport – certainly central/eastern Long Island is quite a bit different from Columbia MO, La Crosse WI, Champaign IL, etc. But from a small-airport perspective I think UA could wring some higher-fare local and connecting traffic out of ISP to/through Chicago since Southwest dropped ISP-MDW. I wouldn't propose ISP-IAD because it would be foolish to compete (poorly) against ISP-BWI-xxx and Florida nonstops on WN. I was tempted to put HVN-ORD on my list as well (in addition to ISP-ORD and SWF-ORD) but New Haven just seems to be the airport people reliably drive past, even worse than ISP or SWF.
 
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knope2001
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:40 am

mnflyer11 wrote:
As a former RST resident, I know the airport's talked with Frontier in the past about possible Denver service. Might United be their ticket to the Mile High City given RST has no westbound flights, or would dueling with AA for O'Hare be more worth it financially?


I think they'd choose ORD over DEN for a few reasons:

1. ORD is close enough to be omnidirectional for them. RST-ORD reasonably serves RSW-SFO, RST-PHX, RST-DFW, RST-NYC, etc. Via Denver you're probably limited to the West and perhaps Texas -- stuff like RST-DEN-PHL isn't reasonable.

2. Even though UA has apparently seen the light on high-fare connecting traffic, the longer the feeder flight the tougher the economics become. They'd rather take you to Phoenix via a short-hop feeder flight to O'Hare than a long feeder flight to Denver. Among other things the longer feeder flights burn a lot more aircraft time.

3. There's a certain amount of hungry-dog mentality when it comes to airline competitiveness (my apologies to dogs on the analogy). The new guy walks in and, seeing another dog eating out of bowl doesn't react with "are there more bowls of food here" but instead with "gimme what he's got". The airport would prefer a different nonstop destination, and passengers may as well (though competition on RST-ORD could put downward pressure on fares and be a customer benefit that way.) But airlines are more like hungry dogs even when it may not be in their best interest. The surest way to get United to start RST-DEN is for Frontier to start it and have the tiniest bit of success. They'll beat on each other, one will pull out and as soon as there's a bit of adversity the second one will close up shop as well.
 
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vfw614
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:31 am

joeljack wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
joeljack wrote:
For work, I fly from DSM to Green Bay, ATW, MSN, up and back same day, never spend the night. If United served LSE, I would do the same thing vs drive!


You can easily do DSM-LSE morning departure/evening return one-day trip thru MSP on Delta Connection. :D


Ha, yes very true! I'm a United Frequent Flyer though.


Pardon my ignorance, but what stops you from taking DL flights as a UA frequent flyer if the alternative is not UA, but driving? After all, it is pretty much the same airplanes just in a different livery...?
 
md94
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 1:19 pm

Personally, I would love to see ORD-GCK.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 1:39 pm

It'll be interesting to see if UA attempts TLH. CO tried it a few times. First as COExpress with EMB-120's to TPA and then most recently with E135's to IAH right before the merger. AA is doing well with TLH-DFW, now using E175's, not sure why CO couldn't make it work. UA would be wise to try 1x TLH-IAD, 1x TLH-EWR and 2x TLH-ORD. None would have competition.
 
klwright69
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 1:54 pm

CO tried AGS before I believe it was in the 90's or early 2000's. Service to EWR and IAH failed in the end. I have a relative in that town and she wasn't surprised CO failed. The market is not big she informed me, and the traffic is very clearly committed to CLT and ATL. She told me that other carriers have struggled against the incumbents here.
Furthermore, Augusta is not that far from CAE, and UA serves CAE. Therefore I would be surprised to see AGS ever come back.
 
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knope2001
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 2:43 pm

Most of the new cities being suggested once had UA or CO service, often on the same sorts of routes being proposed now.

At just about every one a case could be made that UA will fail again because the market isn't big enough and/or the existing carrier is entrenched. And those arguments may prove true. But for UA to make such a broad statement about seeing profit in smaller airports and connecting flows I suspect some things have changed.

--They've made a business decision that United will figure out how to perform as well in the small city segment as DL and AA seem to do, possibly even one of those strategic "details be damned" decisions.

--The competitive landscape at some of these airports has changed since UA/CO last left.

--They may understand better how to pursue profitable connections than in the past. If the last time they were in Champaign they sold a lot of $99 connecting flights to Orlando because they could't let so many Champaign travelers drive up to Midway to catch an Orlando flight, they (hopefully) learned now to just let that go.

--Cost allocation and accounting strategies may have changed. There's a whole lot of gray when assessing the true value of connecting traffic and perspectives have changed over time. The pendulum may have swung again more in the direction of "connecting feed is good" when route analysis is done.

--Fuel is comparably cheap. Obviously you can't bet the farm that will never change, but this is the time to take advantage. Maybe if oil is back to $90 in 2018 most of these route can't cut it, but some may turn out to be worth keeping with high oil. Now is the time to try.

It's always a challenge to make people change their habits, and DL/AA won't give up higher-value passengers easily. A lot of the high-value traffic at smaller airports originates at that airport, and if you're a road warrior for a company in your town where UA/CO hasn't been for years, you're probably going to hold tight to earning your DL or AA miles. But things do change, and this isn't a bad time to try to make those changes happen for UA.
 
DakotaFlyer
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 3:17 pm

[quote="GSP psgr"]I'll take a stab at 20 new UA markets:
3) Grand Forks, ND (ORD and/or DEN)

UA tried GFK to DENVER a couple years ago and was eliminated after a year. UA also has the EAS contract at DVL to DEN, which is only 90 miles from GFK.
 
jetero
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 3:35 pm

knope2001 wrote:
But for UA to make such a broad statement about seeing profit in smaller airports and connecting flows I suspect some things have changed.


I fear it could be more marketing than an actual centerpiece of their plans, as that's mostly what these investor days and quarterly earnings calls amount to. They wanted to send the signal that a change in strategy was afoot, make the point that they had on-the-surface simple opportunities, and implicitly acknowledge that mistakes had been made in the past, but thinking this is an all-out push is probably wrong for a variety of reasons. (Remember when AA was on the brink of bankruptcy and couldn't stop talking about how the "Cornerstone" strategy was going to turn everything around? Marketing drivel that amounted to nothing more than a distraction.)

First, there is just not the gate capacity at ORD to add new spokes to the map AND seriously rebank the hub. DEN is getting that way too. IAH (once the new gate capacity comes online) and IAD probably are the only opportunities. Sadly, not many people want to fly into IAD and IAH is a very weak domestic market for a city of its size (very different story internationally).

Second, capacity plans are for a very modest 1.5% capacity growth (slightly higher domestic) and aircraft deliveries have been deferred. Sure some cities can be added here and there within those parameters but unless a hub is being closed, there aren't the resources there to make a seriously competitive, broad push. (Cities like AGS and TLH didn't work because CO's patterns of adding 1-2 flights per day was no serious competition to the multiple flights to ATL and CLT. As such, any connecting traffic was very low-yielding. Such service may have been attractive to EWR when it was the only nonstop available to the NYC market, but the DL-US slot swap at LGA, the DL buildup of JFK, and the increased AA presence since the US merger makes it a very steep mountain to climb back into the market. Unfortunately, both UA and CO shrunk into irrelevance in many of these markets since 2008 . . . fighting to get back in is not going to be a magic recipe for profitability and may actually be yield-dilutive.

The majority of "closing the yield gap" with Delta, I'm afraid, will be through the revenue management initiatives that Kirby spent some time on on the call.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:40 pm

I hope this could lead to a trickle up effect. It's not just new small cities that need some love, medium sized markets could use some expansion. At SYR, UA is the only airline that doesn't have any mainline flights (excluding AC). I was really hoping with all the new small narrow body planes coming, this would happen, but now with the 73G's being deferred, I doubt the 2nd hand 319's will have a huge impact. Hopefully we'll at least get a couple more E75 flights instead of all the Q200/300's. I'd like the chance to get upgraded once in a while.
 
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787fan8
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:13 pm

I would love to see small city expansion from UA. Hopefully they add Augusta GA, so Delta Connection, American Eagle and United Express can all compete.
 
phluser
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Citiesu

Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:29 pm

jetero wrote:

(None of the above should be taken as an endorsement of UA's operations at IAD. But saying that UA will incur more fees to connect people from ALB to CHS is absolutely ridiculous. The problems are not that simple . . . that's why they are problems.)


United's Form 8k filing even mentions that Dulles is a high cost airport. It's not just high cost structure for all other carriers that don't have a hub there. Anyways, for the last ten years, UA hasn't expanded domestic from IAD. Even for feeder flights from nearby airports like PHF. That is unlike competing hub airports in the East, mainly CLT (often touted for it's low cost hub structure) and ATL (even PHL) that have a lot of feeder flights from airports within a 200 mile distance.
 
blockski
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:59 pm

MWAA and UA have been making strides to decrease IAD's costs. The projected CPE for the 2017 budget is down under $19, which is substantially less than the $27 mark it hit a few years ago. MWAA has been able to control some costs, substantially increase non aviation revenue, and negotiate a new lease agreement at both IAD and DCA that allows for some shared costs, further reducing IAD's costs.
 
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LAXdude1023
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:16 am

globalcabotage wrote:
ORD is in lign for: CMI, JLN, TRI, MFE, AMA/LBB, SHV, BTR, MGM, and the return of Canadian cities. Let's see if this is real. Also, word in Dallas is that a "few more dots will be connected at ORD."


Absolutely NOT.

ORD would, at most, see service from one of those cities (probably CMI). Well be dead before ORD-MFE/AMA/LBB becomes a reality.
 
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SuseJ772
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:03 am

Come on DEN-FWA
 
eraugrad02
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:23 am

OOer wrote:
It will probably be a combination of new cities currently not served by UA and cities with existing UA service to other hubs where a flight to ORD wouldn't directly overfly the hubs they currently serve.

My top 10:

1. MSO-ORD
2. PSC-ORD
3. CPR-ORD
4. BTR-ORD
5. TLH-ORD
6. VPS-ORD
7. GNV-ORD
8. DAB-ORD
9. ILM-ORD
10. ISP-ORD

I surely hope we get United Express ILM I worked for Atlantic Coast Airlines from start (1998) to pull out (2002). United sways stated they wanted to return. This is exciting if this happens. We had AAE Until they went BK. They pulled the E-140. We'd like IAD again.
 
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STT757
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Re: United To Expand Into Smaller Cities

Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:22 pm

coairman wrote:
Maybe expand IAD into new southern markets that compete with CLT's AA and ATL's DL and other northern markets.

IAD-MLB
IAD-EYW (seasonal)
IAD-JAN
IAD-LEX
IAD-MKE (northern)
IAD-SBN (northern)
IAD-MQT (northern)
IAD-FWA (northern)
IAD-CAK (northern)
IAD-TVC (northern seasonal)
IAD-MGM
IAD-BHM
IAD-JAN
IAD-BTR
IAD-SHV
IAD-PNS
IAD-TLH
IAD-SRQ
IAD-MOB
IAD-ILM
IAD-ELP
IAD-TUS

The only problem that may occur is that it might canabalise traffic from other competing UA hubs like IAH and ORD.


Why not serve those from EWR, much larger O&D and better connectivity for International flights. When we have these discussions about IAD folks always bring up the idea of developing the operation into a Southeastern hub ala RDU, CLT and ATL. The problem is that IAD is not in the South, yes it's in Virginia but it's more regionally associated with the Appalachia and Mid-Atlantic region then the South. IAD is as far South as Cape May New Jersey, and no one would argue New Jersey is a Southern State. For some perspective the distance between IAD and Charlotte is almost the same as IAD and Toronto, IAD-BOS is shorter than IAD-ATL, IAD-PIT is shorter than IAD-RDU etc..

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