gabrielchew
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:51 am

Blotto wrote:
I wonder if they ever considered using their A380s in their cooperation with EK. Qantas flies them via DXB and so could MH if they have the 5th freedom rights. I guess EK would be happy to add some German destinations. So why not fly KUL-DXB-SXF in collaboration with EK circumventing their limitations in traffic rights.
So having an A380 network with KUL-LHR, KUL-DXB-LHR and KUL-DXB-SXF should be sustainable even for MH and keep all 6 AC employed.


That seems like an extremely sensible idea. I think the sticking point with that is that I imagine a lot of EK pax would be very upset boarding an MH aircraft, especially if they were expecting an EK one. I think MH is still a tainted brand. EK don't mind poaching MH pax, but EK I don't imagine will be happy putting their pax on a MH aircraft.
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Clipper101
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:50 am

Tedd wrote:
Since WW at BA said he`d be interested used A380`s, wouldn`t these RR powered Malaysian examples be ideal?


In my understanding WW statement was for a few numbered A380's to equip IAG subsidiaries EI & IB, not necessarily for BA; yes he stated those need to be as much close in their specifications to birds flying at BA as possible & having RR engines greatly helps !

Another option which opened recently would be in HA
 
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zkojq
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:52 am

neutrino wrote:
zkojq wrote:
On another note, I'm rather frustrated at how the quality of comments on these forums has fallen substantially since the website stopped charging for membership.

Seriously, there are a few new contributors of real quality, especially those who had been lurking for a long time who know what they are talking about. Otoh, quite a number came across as clueless but trying to be smart, indiscriminately sh#tting all over the place.

As I see it there's a lot of teenagers who have now joined. There seems to be a lot of content posted that suggests some new users have a low familiarity with certain aviation related topics. For example, last month someone started a thread that was basically 'hey guys, look at this article about Crew Rest Areas; I had no idea they existed'. There also seems to be a lot of repetition of myths that have been debunked years ago and a lot of discussions on new aircraft seem to head quickly towards A vs B arguments. I do agree with you though that since the website changes we have had some valuable members join and post good quality content and make decent, thought provoking discussion, so it's not all bad.

Just my 2c.
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LupineChemist
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:05 am

Clipper101 wrote:
Tedd wrote:
Since WW at BA said he`d be interested used A380`s, wouldn`t these RR powered Malaysian examples be ideal?


In my understanding WW statement was for a few numbered A380's to equip IAG subsidiaries EI & IB, not necessarily for BA; yes he stated those need to be as much close in their specifications to birds flying at BA as possible & having RR engines greatly helps !

Another option which opened recently would be in HA



I think if they go for RR or not, they are going to wait until EK figures out what they are going to do with their retiring frames. The secondary market will be crashed and then they pull a Delta and go shopping for frames as cheap as they can.
 
SonOfABeech
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:32 am

gabrielchew wrote:
Blotto wrote:
I wonder if they ever considered using their A380s in their cooperation with EK. Qantas flies them via DXB and so could MH if they have the 5th freedom rights. I guess EK would be happy to add some German destinations. So why not fly KUL-DXB-SXF in collaboration with EK circumventing their limitations in traffic rights.
So having an A380 network with KUL-LHR, KUL-DXB-LHR and KUL-DXB-SXF should be sustainable even for MH and keep all 6 AC employed.


That seems like an extremely sensible idea. I think the sticking point with that is that I imagine a lot of EK pax would be very upset boarding an MH aircraft, especially if they were expecting an EK one. I think MH is still a tainted brand. EK don't mind poaching MH pax, but EK I don't imagine will be happy putting their pax on a MH aircraft.


Also, would MH (or QF, for that matter) get the rights on the European side? This is pretty much a way for EK to dodge bilateral restrictions.
 
Tedd
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:36 pm

LupineChemist wrote:
Clipper101 wrote:
Tedd wrote:
Since WW at BA said he`d be interested used A380`s, wouldn`t these RR powered Malaysian examples be ideal?


In my understanding WW statement was for a few numbered A380's to equip IAG subsidiaries EI & IB, not necessarily for BA; yes he stated those need to be as much close in their specifications to birds flying at BA as possible & having RR engines greatly helps !

Another option which opened recently would be in HA



I think if they go for RR or not, they are going to wait until EK figures out what they are going to do with their retiring frames. The secondary market will be crashed and then they pull a Delta and go shopping for frames as cheap as they can.


I distinctly remember WW saying he wouldn`t take any GEnx powered examples. It`s already been mentioned that he`s after the cheapest ( not totally convinced he is mind you ), which would limit him to the 5 Singapore aircraft. People that know more than me, have suggested that the earliest one would be best avoided so is it possible he`d go for Singapore`s 4 remaining frames? I`d imagine the interiors might be a tad tired, but perhaps BA with their resources could overcome that hurdle. On the mechanical side I doubt there would be too much BA couldn`t handle, so I guess it could come to pass that BA might at least take a look at them. If I were a betting man I`d still place faith in WW being more interested in the MAS frames!
 
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Revelation
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:06 pm

smi0006 wrote:
Once the Chinese secondary markets become congested too, perhaps sooner between marjor markets and A380 regional in China would be handy. Flying ferry really.


I don't know why people think the Chinese market is going to develop much differently than the rest of the world's air markets. As above we're already seeing lots of 'hub bypass' flights. For the thick trunk routes we're seeing China invest more aggressively than anyone else in the world on high speed rail. This seems to parallel Japan, where in the older days they used 747s as domestic shuttles but now we see that role greatly being handed off to high speed rail.

The A380 would make a lousy shuttle. It's built for range so it has huge fuel storage capacity and a heavy build to allow it to take off with that much fuel on it. Add to that it's engines are now dated and there are four of them and it's all bad math. They'd be better off using something like 787-10 which is optimized for capacity at the cost of range. They can roughly get three of them for two A380s based on list prices and overall they are much more flexible aircraft. They could offer more frequent flights, or they could shift capacity around the network as needed to deal with seasonal traffic patterns, etc.
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Clipper101
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:32 pm

Revelation wrote:
The A380 would make a lousy shuttle. It's built for range


Not the case as proved with EK, they have it regular from Dubai to Kuwait, Jeddah & there is possibility to add other regional destinations, Amman being one.
 
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Polot
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:36 pm

Clipper101 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The A380 would make a lousy shuttle. It's built for range


Not the case as proved with EK, they have it regular from Dubai to Kuwait, Jeddah & there is possibility to add other regional destinations, Amman being one.

Those are generally being weaved between longer flights however. There is a difference between buying an aircraft and "misusing" it 20% of the time and buying an aircraft and "misusing" it 100% of the time.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:39 pm

Clipper101 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The A380 would make a lousy shuttle. It's built for range


Not the case as proved with EK, they have it regular from Dubai to Kuwait, Jeddah & there is possibility to add other regional destinations, Amman being one.


EK fly their A380s on longer flights, but in the time between long haul stretches they might as well use it as a shuttle, the same applies to QR's 77Ls, which will sometimes fly 15hrs to LAX and then 2hrs to Pakistan. It doesn't mean the A380 is suitable for it. The fact that the A330 (especially the A330-300) is so popular because it's optimised for the ranges typical in intra-Asia flying indicates that Polot and Revelation are right. The 78X and/or A330neo would be much better bets for any 'regional' routes Chinese or other Asian airlines may want to fly.
 
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neutrino
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:01 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Clipper101 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The A380 would make a lousy shuttle. It's built for range


Not the case as proved with EK, they have it regular from Dubai to Kuwait, Jeddah & there is possibility to add other regional destinations, Amman being one.


EK fly their A380s on longer flights, but in the time between long haul stretches they might as well use it as a shuttle, the same applies to QR's 77Ls, which will sometimes fly 15hrs to LAX and then 2hrs to Pakistan. It doesn't mean the A380 is suitable for it. The fact that the A330 (especially the A330-300) is so popular because it's optimised for the ranges typical in intra-Asia flying indicates that Polot and Revelation are right. The 78X and/or A330neo would be much better bets for any 'regional' routes Chinese or other Asian airlines may want to fly.


True, back in the days when SQ was doing the ULH routes to LA and NYC, their A345s were deployed to the 1hr 20 mins hops to JKT, both for better utilization in between the long haul trips, and to accord the pilots much needed t/o & landing cycles. They will highly likely do the same to their to-be-resumed LA & NYC flights with their A359ULRs.
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flee
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:07 pm

Why does every airline specific A380 thread degenerate into another discussion about the A380 model's general failure in the marketplace?

This thread, like the SQ one, has gone way off topic.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:31 pm

neutrino wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Clipper101 wrote:

Not the case as proved with EK, they have it regular from Dubai to Kuwait, Jeddah & there is possibility to add other regional destinations, Amman being one.


EK fly their A380s on longer flights, but in the time between long haul stretches they might as well use it as a shuttle, the same applies to QR's 77Ls, which will sometimes fly 15hrs to LAX and then 2hrs to Pakistan. It doesn't mean the A380 is suitable for it. The fact that the A330 (especially the A330-300) is so popular because it's optimised for the ranges typical in intra-Asia flying indicates that Polot and Revelation are right. The 78X and/or A330neo would be much better bets for any 'regional' routes Chinese or other Asian airlines may want to fly.


True, back in the days when SQ was doing the ULH routes to LA and NYC, their A345s were deployed to the 1hr 20 mins hops to JKT, both for better utilization in between the long haul trips, and to accord the pilots much needed t/o & landing cycles. They will highly likely do the same to their to-be-resumed LA & NYC flights with their A359ULRs.


I imagine the A359LRs will have a different J product compared to the regular A359s (with a difference between 'regional' and longer haul A359s?), as well as a generous Y/Y+ seat, again like the A345s (initially) had. Nice upgrade for whom it happens!
Last edited by MrHMSH on Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:43 pm

flee wrote:
Why does every airline specific A380 thread degenerate into another discussion about the A380 model's general failure in the marketplace?


MAS can't find buyers for six frames all no older than five years.

MAS is saying they are going to turn them into charter planes to be used for Muslim pilgrimages.

That is traditionally the domain of the cast-offs of the world's air fleets.

It has terrible yields and even MAS is saying they can't utilize them year-round.

All discussions of what to do with used A380s are inevitably going to involve figuring out who would buy them and what use they would put them to, so we can discuss whether or not that use is feasible or not. That means one will certainly examine the A380's marketplace.
Last edited by Revelation on Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:45 pm

neutrino wrote:
True, back in the days when SQ was doing the ULH routes to LA and NYC, their A345s were deployed to the 1hr 20 mins hops to JKT, both for better utilization in between the long haul trips, and to accord the pilots much needed t/o & landing cycles. They will highly likely do the same to
their to-be-resumed LA & NYC flights with their A359ULRs.


It won't be as necessary with the A359ULRs though. Pilots can easily keep their type rating current with the necessary t/o and landings by flying the standard A350s (I doubt SQ will have a pilot group dedicated to just the ULRs). With the A345s for most of their time at SQ they were the only A340/A330 planes in SQ's fleet. Weren't the flights to CGK less common in later years?
 
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AirbusA343
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:01 pm

I agree about the A380 coming too early. One day in 15 years I'm sure there will be a need for more A380s. Would it be possible to suspend (so temporarily stop production) production when they decide to continue or stop the A380 production?
 
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neutrino
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:19 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
I imagine the A359LRs will have a different J product compared to the regular A359s (with a difference between 'regional' and longer haul A359s), as well as a generous Y/Y+ seat, again like the A345s (initially) had. Nice upgrade for whom it happens!

Ah, although those A345 seats were sold as economy, they were not discounted which make them more expensive than the J class of other airlines.

Polot wrote:
It won't be as necessary with the A359ULRs though. Pilots can easily keep their type rating current with the necessary t/o and landings by flying the standard A350s (I doubt SQ will have a pilot group dedicated to just the ULRs). With the A345s for most of their time at SQ they were the only A340/A330 planes in SQ's fleet. Weren't the flights to CGK less common in later years?

On reflection, you are right on that point of the coming A359ULRs being a non-orphan fleet as opposed to the A345s, so likely that them being used for JKT will not be like that of the earlier mixed Y+ and J configurated A345s.
Yes, the later refurbishment which resulted in the birds being all J class subsequently see them flying less often to JKT. Don't know whether those all J seats were being sold as J or non-discounted Y, my guess being the former.
They might still fly the new ULR fleet to JKT on the same basis as the later configured A345s; ie likely selling the seats as all Js as configured. 100 or so J is not that many to fill in that very busy sector - there are plenty of wealthy individuals and high government officials shuttling between the two points frequently. I personally know of a few Indo businessmen who fly to SIN on Friday evenings and head back to JKT on Monday mornings virtually every week...and they are on J all the time.
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neutrino
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:24 pm

AirbusA343 wrote:
I agree about the A380 coming too early. One day in 15 years I'm sure there will be a need for more A380s. Would it be possible to suspend (so temporarily stop production) production when they decide to continue or stop the A380 production?

In fifteen years, the A380 as they are now will become too antiquated and therefore very uneconomical to the bean counters. IF they mothball the production for a decade to two, they will have to invest a bundle of moolah to neo-ing it and refreshing the aeros and systems.
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Matt6461
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

AirbusA343 wrote:
I agree about the A380 coming too early. One day in 15 years I'm sure there will be a need for more A380s.


A couple things about this:

1. I generally agree that the A380 was a little early but
2. Doesn't mean that its tech will be 15-20 years older than it would have been, had Airbus planned a 2020-25 EIS?
3. If the A380 were 15 years too early, its heyday would be starting in ~2020. The first frames of orders placed right now would be delivered in late 2018 or 2019 for a string of deliveries centered around ~2020. If the A380 were really coming into its own, wouldn't we see an order upswing instead of no orders?

IMO a ~2025 VLA could be a great plane; it's far from certain that the A380 will be that plane.
 
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Clipper101
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:56 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
EK fly their A380s on longer flights, but in the time between long haul stretches they might as well use it as a shuttle, the same applies to QR's 77Ls, which will sometimes fly 15hrs to LAX and then 2hrs to Pakistan. It doesn't mean the A380 is suitable for it.


These routes are regional, Jeddah/Mumbai/Amman at around 2:45 - 3 hours each way & Kuwait a little shorter at 1:45 each way from Dubai, but they are not ultra-short. Such routes still will reserve an active aircraft for most of the day between aircraft being on ground for preparation & flying time.

MrHMSH wrote:
The fact that the A330 (especially the A330-300) is so popular because it's optimised for the ranges typical in intra-Asia flying indicates that Polot and Revelation are right. The 78X and/or A330neo would be much better bets for any 'regional' routes Chinese or other Asian airlines may want to fly.


China is a continent by itself unlike other Asian nations. It is also the most populous (far more so than the US) ! I just took a look at an IATA passenger market growth prediction study:

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/ ... 26-01.aspx

& it shows China passenger market could be tripled between 2014 - 2034 (yes, they are recognising the economic slow down), according to above report China is expected to take over US as largest passenger market by 2029, portion of domestic travel is also expected to grow substantially. India is also showing rapid growth, who knows beginning 2020 you could expect to start hearing the talk about A380 & India. It is assumed when people are looking for A380’s they want the next step beyond B787X & A330neo in terms of passenger capacity.
 
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BasilFawlty
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:09 am

Revelation wrote:
MAS can't find buyers for six frames all no older than five years.

Perhaps their asking price is too high? ;)
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2175301
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:08 am

BasilFawlty wrote:
Revelation wrote:
MAS can't find buyers for six frames all no older than five years.

Perhaps their asking price is too high? ;)


My understanding is that MAS was willing to take a noticeable loss, as any option they have is a loosing proposition.

So I doubt it was a question of price.

Here is an interesting question: Would anyone be interested in them and find a real use for them if they were provided free and clear (just accept them as they are) and MAS would pay off the lenders.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:56 am

Dutchy wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
In hindsight Boeing was dead on and Airbus dead wrong on the A380.


No Boeing poured money into a new version of the 747, so both Airbus and Boeing overestimated the marked for very large planes.


The B747-8i wasn't a completely new type compared to Airbus A380 program. Boeing in the end spread their eggs opposed to Airbus placing their eggs in one basket approach. The savour of the A380 is EK had they not ordered 120+ frames!

EK413
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:38 am

EK413 wrote:
The savour of the A380 is EK had they not ordered 120+ frames!


Otoh, as some members here had previously postulated, the reverse COULD be true and EK's huge total orders is actually the bane of the A380. The reasoning is if EK had not grown so big in such a short time, eating other airlines' pies in the process, some of them might have ordered more and the sum total could be higher than what it is now. Simplistically, something like in situation A, one monopoly buys a hundred gizmos to service a certain consolidated market, then in the absence of said monopoly in situation B, ten different players might have bought an average of ,say thirteen gizmos each leading to a total of 130 for a fragmented market.
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flee
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:04 am

Revelation wrote:
flee wrote:
Why does every airline specific A380 thread degenerate into another discussion about the A380 model's general failure in the marketplace?


MAS can't find buyers for six frames all no older than five years.

MAS is saying they are going to turn them into charter planes to be used for Muslim pilgrimages.

That is traditionally the domain of the cast-offs of the world's air fleets.

It has terrible yields and even MAS is saying they can't utilize them year-round.

All discussions of what to do with used A380s are inevitably going to involve figuring out who would buy them and what use they would put them to, so we can discuss whether or not that use is feasible or not. That means one will certainly examine the A380's marketplace.
While I agree that they may be relevant as background info, there is no need to regurgitate everything in this thread. A link to an existing discussion would suffice to keep this thread cleaner and not deviate too much from discussing MH and its A380 leasing plans.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:40 am

EK413 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
In hindsight Boeing was dead on and Airbus dead wrong on the A380.


No Boeing poured money into a new version of the 747, so both Airbus and Boeing overestimated the marked for very large planes.


The B747-8i wasn't a completely new type compared to Airbus A380 program. Boeing in the end spread their eggs opposed to Airbus placing their eggs in one basket approach. The savour of the A380 is EK had they not ordered 120+ frames!

EK413


I was under the impression that the 748 development cost was also quite significant - they were talking about 5-6 billion versus 11-13 for the A380 IIRC.

And as discussed in one of the million other A380-doom threads, EK actually decimated the competition - thereby *REDUCING* the likely global A380 fleet.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:45 am

EK413 wrote:
The B747-8i wasn't a completely new type compared to Airbus A380 program. Boeing in the end spread their eggs opposed to Airbus placing their eggs in one basket approach.


This is just the standard media A vs B talk, in reality Airbus spread their eggs on the A320, A330 and A350 programs.
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:06 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
I was under the impression that the 748 development cost was also quite significant - they were talking about 5-6 billion versus 11-13 for the A380 IIRC.


For what it's worth, Bloomberg says:

Facing an almost inevitable demise just a decade into commercial operation, the A380 never met Airbus’s aspirations, and the company has long since given up on recouping its 25 billion euros ($28 billion) in development costs.


Ref: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... as-of-2018

I haven't found similar data for the 747-8, although clearly they have been taking write offs recently that show it is billions in the red. Unfortunately I could not find any source that tallied them up.

2175301 wrote:
Here is an interesting question: Would anyone be interested in them and find a real use for them if they were provided free and clear (just accept them as they are) and MAS would pay off the lenders.


As a rule of thumb, cost of capital / leasing is something like a third of per-trip costs, so I'm sure MAS could find someone to fly them around at no cost, but why would MAS do that? Things like 'power by the hour' engines mean operating them costs MAS money. If they really have no buyers, the best plan would be to park them in a desert somewhere so the planes don't accumulate wear and tear.
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Varsity1
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:03 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

No Boeing poured money into a new version of the 747, so both Airbus and Boeing overestimated the marked for very large planes.


The B747-8i wasn't a completely new type compared to Airbus A380 program. Boeing in the end spread their eggs opposed to Airbus placing their eggs in one basket approach. The savour of the A380 is EK had they not ordered 120+ frames!

EK413


I was under the impression that the 748 development cost was also quite significant - they were talking about 5-6 billion versus 11-13 for the A380 IIRC.

And as discussed in one of the million other A380-doom threads, EK actually decimated the competition - thereby *REDUCING* the likely global A380 fleet.


The 747-8 program cost 4 Billion. It's a stretch, reengine and rewing -400.

The A380 cost 28 Billion.
 
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neutrino
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:21 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
The 747-8 program cost 4 Billion. It's a stretch, reengine and rewing -400.
The A380 cost 28 Billion.

I suppose that's as accurate as can possibly be, for the public domain anyway.
So, all things being equal (of course there are variables but for simple extrapolation sake, let's assume so), the 748 programme need sell only 1/7th as much to be in the same unpalatable footing. Since it has much more orders than that, the jumbo though still in hot waters is not in as high temperature soup as its larger fellow VLA.
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:01 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
AirbusA343 wrote:
I agree about the A380 coming too early. One day in 15 years I'm sure there will be a need for more A380s.


A couple things about this:

1. I generally agree that the A380 was a little early but
2. Doesn't mean that its tech will be 15-20 years older than it would have been, had Airbus planned a 2020-25 EIS?
3. If the A380 were 15 years too early, its heyday would be starting in ~2020. The first frames of orders placed right now would be delivered in late 2018 or 2019 for a string of deliveries centered around ~2020. If the A380 were really coming into its own, wouldn't we see an order upswing instead of no orders?

IMO a ~2025 VLA could be a great plane; it's far from certain that the A380 will be that plane.


I apologise about the vagueness of my earlier post. To clear it up I'll respond to your points:
Point 2: Yes I agree however by it coming early, I mean its capacity is unnecessary right now apart from of course the airlines that are doing well with them.
Point 3: I don't mean it came 15 years too early, I mean maybe it could've been useful if it was made fifteen years from now. If demand for air travel continues increasing then we will see more A380 orders.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:39 pm

AirbusA343 wrote:
Point 3: I don't mean it came 15 years too early, I mean maybe it could've been useful if it was made fifteen years from now. If demand for air travel continues increasing then we will see more A380 orders


I thought you might have meant that. Do you really think the current airframe will be competitive in 2030 against 2030 technology? And for long enough to justify even a NEO?

The problem I see with your statement is you seem to assume that there won't be new tech, either in 2030 or soon thereafter, that will make the A380 obsolete.

Now I anticipate that you'll say this is a 50-year program like the 747. but note that modern programs don't last so long without substantial airframe changes - 777x, 737ng for example required much more than new engines to remain competitive.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:46 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
EK413 wrote:
The B747-8i wasn't a completely new type compared to Airbus A380 program. Boeing in the end spread their eggs opposed to Airbus placing their eggs in one basket approach.


This is just the standard media A vs B talk, in reality Airbus spread their eggs on the A320, A330 and A350 programs.



I agree with Karel in this, neither Boeing or Airbus really bet on one scenario, the line up is great for both covering the full range from 150 seat up to 650-800. Both companies invested heavily into their whole range. Hub - hub or Hub - direct scenario is a frame, nothing more, just look where they invested in.

Both Airbus and Boeing was wrong into investing into the VLA marked, although I too feel the A380 was a bit too early. If the EIS was in 2022-2025 they could have made it a little bit bigger and even more efficient.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:20 am

Varsity1 wrote:
The A380 cost 28 Billion.


I would just like to say that the original development cost for the A380 is magically and constantly going up... according to people on a.net.

28 is a new high. Congratulations.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Polot
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:20 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
The A380 cost 28 Billion.


I would just like to say that the original development cost for the A380 is magically and constantly going up... according to people on a.net.

28 is a new high. Congratulations.


The $28 billion is from Bloomberg, not A.net. They may have made a mistake however because other sources I quickly search for estimate $25 billion USD, while Bloomberg said 25 billion euros.
 
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Revelation
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Thu Sep 29, 2016 2:43 pm

Polot wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
The A380 cost 28 Billion.


I would just like to say that the original development cost for the A380 is magically and constantly going up... according to people on a.net.

28 is a new high. Congratulations.


The $28 billion is from Bloomberg, not A.net. They may have made a mistake however because other sources I quickly search for estimate $25 billion USD, while Bloomberg said 25 billion euros.


Yes, I even give the source link in Reply #78. It seemed that figure came out right as the A380 rate of 1/month was announced.

Look at the bright side SomebodyInTLS, the figure in USD would be a lot worse in years past due to the EUR's current weakness! :D
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KarelXWB
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Thu Sep 29, 2016 2:58 pm

The A380 was launched with a € 15 billion development cost.

The $28 billion figure comes from several analysts and was never confirmed by Airbus. This speculative figure may include additional post-EIS costs, like the wing rib issue. Therefore nobody knows the "real" pre-EIS development costs. Frankly I doubt the early wiring issues would have added an additional € 10 billion costs, that doesn't sound logical.
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raylee67
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:59 pm

All MH needs in its network is A320/A321 to cover all Asian routes + 787 or A350 to cover Australia/NZ/London.

But now if they are stuck with the A380, may be they can consider converting them to 800-seat full economy class planes for Hajj flights. Wet lease them to Saudia for that.
319 320 321 332 333 342 343 345 388 707 717 732 736 73G 738 739 74R 742 743 744 74E 748 757 762 763 772 77E 77L 773 77W D10 M80 135 140 145 175 190 DH1 DH4 CRJ CR7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
spacecookie
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Re: MAS changes A380 plans, again

Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:09 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Boeing bet the house on point to point (787). Airbus bet the house on hub to hub (A380). Both had reactionary programs to the other's project (A350 and 748). Boeing was right.

Being "right" didn't give them any real advantage though, as the A350 is thus far showing itself to be an absolutely magnificent aircraft in both performance and sales; and while the A380's development costs are an albatross to Airbus, so are the 787's to Boeing.

Pretty much a draw, in all regards.


a draw?

the a380 will never become profitable.
and the a350 is a nice plane, but with some overweight, they had problems on the development

777 and a350 will kill the super heavy market(747-a380) as they are doing right now :)
 
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LeCoqFrancais
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Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 2:29 pm

Malaysia Airlines Bhd. said it will use six surplus Airbus Group SE A380 superjumbos to form the core of a fleet of 700-seat jets dedicated to transporting Muslim travelers on the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca.
Peter Bellew, the carrier’s chief executive officer, met with Airbus’s senior management in Toulouse, France, on Wednesday to hammer out details of the plan, he said in an interview, adding that the meetings were “very positive.”
Establishing a religious-charter operation is attractive because it would offer guaranteed revenues and predictable fares, passenger numbers and plane requirements, according to the CEO, who also looked at selling the A380s to Chinese airlines. The week-long Hajj and year-round Umrah pilgrimage could employ 20 superjumbos within five years and Bellew said the business might also tap further aircraft coming off lease or unwanted by other carriers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... aysia-plan
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 2:38 pm

What's the plan for the packed 700 seaters during the rest of the year???
 
Joelatbsl
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 2:42 pm

Pretty sure they will be able to use them all year long, just as they have been flying Umrah charters to Jeddah too, not only during the Hajj periods ...

On the other hand, this would mean that we won't see them on the route to Heathrow any more.
 
TC957
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 2:46 pm

The article says Umrah is year round.
So MH is looking then for more ( ex EK / SQ ? ) A380's now !
At least MH is being innovative in the use of their A380's - hope it works out well for them.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 2:53 pm

This will be in essence a pilot study for potential LCC operations with low capital cost frames.
 
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 2:59 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
This will be in essence a pilot study for potential LCC operations with low capital cost frames.


It will be interesting to see what fares these flights can support.

Traditionally Hajj flights have very low yields.

Hopefully MAS has found a way to change that enough to support the operation.

At least prayer time will be easy, the plane will be pointed towards or away from Mecca...
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LeCoqFrancais
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 3:39 pm

I have always wondered how much time it would take for A380s to start operating Hajj flights, it always seemed like a good fit for me since Hajj flights carry so many people every year.
Sébastien C. Tourillon
 
blueflyer
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 3:41 pm

Tellingly this pilgrimage fleet will be operated in a stand-alone unit separate from MAS. An effective way to shield MAS from losses from the operations.
MAGag
 
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:18 pm

What are used 380s going for?
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:32 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
What are used 380s going for?


That is unknown. MAS and I my memory says one other carrier could not sell their used A380's at what was reported to be significant discounts; although the exact numbers are not know. But, it appears that what a used A380 will go for is "not much" if they find a buyer.

Have a great day,
 
j1960amme
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Re: Malaysia Airlines retrofits Airbus A380 fleet for Hajj flights

Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:51 pm

Maverick:

> What are used 380s going for?

According to the Bloomberg Article, pretty much zero:

'Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation consultancy firm Endau Analytics in Malaysia, said it may be that
the companies decided the A380 wasn’t the right plane for the Hajj, adding that Bellew’s decision
not to sell his six planes suggests there is “no secondary market.”'

TC957:

> So MH is looking then for more ( ex EK / SQ ? ) A380's now !

Where the heck are you getting that? According to the article, "The week-long Hajj and year-round Umrah pilgrimage COULD employ 20 superjumbos within five years and Bellew said the business MIGHT also tap further aircraft coming off lease or unwanted by other carriers."

The emphasis is mine, but it's trivially obvious that expansion ideas are just speculation and nothing more. Note that the same article points out that several other carriers have looked at using the A380 for Hajj flights but that they have ALL declined to pursue it. Combined with Malaysian's failure to sell any of the 380s (their first plan), it looks like this plan by Malaysian smacks more of desperation to employ the A380s SOMEHOW than anything else. As others have noted, success in this new venture is FAR from certain.

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