^ummm...given your name, am I to assume you're from Indy? Not trying to start a pissing match here, my friend. This is a thread about CLE and I said CLE would be a great eastern US hub for AS. And I still believe that to be true--as its a better location than NYC, PHL, BOS---as well as the places you offered: IND, MKE, and CMH. The air market of CLE is certainly bigger than IND's or Columbus, OH's--ask anyone, despite your "Those are the facts!" above. I already provided Metro GDP numbers and a source and you present some incorrect ones. For example, in your numbers, Summit County (parts of which are 20-25 minutes from Hopkins airport and which are suburbs of Cleveland as defined by the Census Bureau) are excluded from your "Cleveland" number. Its easy to lie, or at best, mis-represent, with "Facts".

greenair727 wrote:

^ummm...given your name, am I to assume you're from Indy? Not trying to start a pissing match here, my friend. This is a thread about CLE and I said CLE would be a great eastern US hub for AS. And I still believe that to be true--as its a better location than NYC, PHL, BOS---as well as the places you offered: IND, MKE, and CMH. The air market of CLE is certainly bigger than IND's or Columbus, OH's--ask anyone, despite your "Those are the facts!" above. I already provided Metro GDP numbers and a source and you present some incorrect ones. For example, in your numbers, Summit County (parts of which are 20-25 minutes from Hopkins airport and which are suburbs of Cleveland as defined by the Census Bureau) are excluded from your "Cleveland" number. Its easy to lie, or at best, mis-represent, with "Facts".

Lets agree to disagree, I clearly didn't lie and that is a serious cheap shot, if I wanted to lie and mis-represent information I wouldn't have cited my sources. Anyway back on topic, I have nothing against CLE and am very aware of the fact that it is a sizable air market, but can someone explain to me why if CLE is such a better and bigger market then IND, why does AS/VX have flights to SEA and SFO from IND and not CLE, and why CLE wasn't added before IND. I am not as familiar with CLE as I am with other midwest markets, so maybe there is something I am not aware of.

Agree to disagree? Hope we can agree on the facts at least. I hope we can all agree looking at population within a city's borders is not how airlines would evaluate a market. CLE is an old time city, small land area, with tons and tons of small suburbs, it developed most heavily from the 20s to the 50s, in a day when that was the model. CMH, by comparison, the city grew at a time when they could keep annexing more and more land. As Metro CLE sprawls, the city shrinks (though downtown is the one ray of sunshine in the city of Cleveland). In comparison CMH has hardly any suburbs, and it doesn't have a fairly substantial medium city like Akron just down the road. I'm afraid I don't know IND well but I suspect it is closer to the Columbus model. I do believe the day will come in maybe one more generation when CMH is larger metro market than NE Ohio, but not yet. . . .

Now on to Alaska serving SEA. All I can say is this: I often compare air service in PIT and CLE, just because I find it interesting. For years, for decades, PIT has had many more seats to BOS and all DC area airports, CLE has had many, many more seats to LAX and ORD. Overall pax stats at the two airports are nearly identical. My take is that some city pairs have more natural business ties than others-- CLE with Chicago and LA, PIT with the east coast.

The one thing I think I could say about IND is it has a much larger cachement area than CLE. CLE is surrounded by CMH/PIT/DTW--- CLE is at a real disadvantage in that it is the regional capital of nothing and nowhere compared to say DTW/MSP/MCI/STL/RDU/etc. and probably IND.

Alaska must have determined that IND has stronger ties to PNW than CLE. . . . that factor alone doesn't necessarily speak at all to the overall viability of a hub. Frontier beat Alaska serving SEA in the summer after UA withdrew, and Alaska just doesn't see enough passengers to challenge. Personally what I think precludes CLE from ever being a hub again is not it's population or location, but the fact that the airport is such a dump. Terminal D in its current design and location is pretty much useless to a new airline, not without some serious investment.

Midwestindy wrote:

why does AS/VX have flights to SEA and SFO from IND and not CLE, and why CLE wasn't added before IND. I am not as familiar with CLE as I am with other midwest markets, so maybe there is something I am not aware of.

I'd guess because CO/UA/F9 have been running it for the past 10 or so years seasonally so it prevented AS from entering the market. Not sure if IND had service prior to AS entered the market. For SFO, UA had 2-3 per day direct so that also prevented VX I'd guess.

If someone has the MSA stats, those are pretty good indicators too.

More on topic, does anyone know the AA move date to Concourse C?

Midwestindy wrote:

greenair727 wrote:

"the US census bureau estimated that in 2015 Cleveland had 388,072 people"

Yes, that's true. But air demand for a city is not limited to those within the limits of City proper. The catchment area for any city is the surrounding area. I provided the GDP for the catchment area, not for the activity within municipal borders. As a global center of business, Cleveland--and by that I mean the Cleveland area--is far more important and a lucrative to airlines than is Columbus.

"United would still have a hub in CLE"

This isn't true. UA left, because it merged with CO and suddenly had hubs in Chicago, CLE, IAD, AND EWR--all within less than 500 miles of each other. The point of the merger was to eliminate staff--and to accomplish this, they closed CLE, which was a viable and profitable hub for CO for years.

flyguy89 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

CLE "used to" have market demand, if it really had the type of market demand you are talking about AS would already have flights(which IND already has) to CLE and United would still have a hub in CLE. An airline would add flights in CMH over CLE, because CLE already has the flights, new carriers are less likely to add service to an airport that has slightly higher O&D but already has multiple established carriers on a desired route, rather than going to an airport with slightly lower O&D but having no competition on a desired route. Cleveland is not even close to the top 20 US cities in terms of population, the US census bureau estimated that in 2015 Cleveland had 388,072 people which is a 2.2% drop from 2010 and a 17% drop since 2000, which ranked 51st in the United States in terms of population. The 2015 estimate for Indianapolis was 853, 173, 14th largest, and Columbus at 850, 106 ,15th largest, both growing at 4% and 8% respectively. Ohio state only makes up 7.7% of the columbus population, and students and lecturers from around the world and country fly into columbus to study and teach, so that is even more reason to add service to Columbus. I couldn't find your statistic online, could you post a link to it, I have never seen that static before so I am very interested considering IND has a higher GDP than CLE, and the GDP of CMH is about equal with that of CLE. But I would love to be proven wrong!

You're talking about population of just the city proper, which doesn't make sense if you're trying to understand demand potential from a given airport. You need to be looking at MSA or even CSA numbers if you're trying to determine the population base with regard to air service demand.

Fine if you want to play it like that Indianapolis is ranked 47th by highest-income metro populations, Columbus 57th, Cleveland ranked 85th, important statistic because it is the highest earning portion of the population who are actually flying. According to https://www.statista.com/statistics/183 ... tro-areas/ Indianapolis is ranked 27th by GMP (Gross Metropolitan Product) with 135.5 billion and Cleveland ranked 29th with 129.3 billion and Columbus ranked 32nd with 126.5 billion. Another interesting fact http://www.best-cities.org/2014/best-pe ... t-2014.pdf, this was a study done that ranked the best performing metropolitan areas in the country (using job growth, wage growth, short-term job growth, high-tech job growth, high-tech GDP concentration, and number of high-tech industries within the metro, e.t.c). The Indianapolis metro ranked 26th, the Columbus metro ranked 41st, and the Cleveland metro ranked 133rd in the US! Those are the facts!

Lol, "play" what exactly? Those numbers are nice and all, and may provide some relevance to a claim that people in IND or CMH may have a higher propensity to travel, but the fact remains that CLE's air market is many times larger than the population of Cleveland proper.

AaronPGH wrote:

Don't feed the troll. This guy is all over the PIT thread too.

HAHA, you people are funny!

greenair727 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

^my only thing to add to this is, would AS rather put a hub more center where all their (regional carrier's) E175's can fly to both coasts, especially the west coast? It can't make west coast to CLE/IND/CMH, etc. They seem to be adding a lot more of those planes, so to me it would make more sense to put a hub somewhere that can use them to anywhere.

Other options: MCI (although they have layout issues), STL (although they basically have a WN hub) and MSP (although I don't know if they could make another hub work), might make more sense because they have a larger passenger count/location. MKE also has smaller counts so it might be too small, but location wise it would work. All those would be in range for E190's both ways I would think.

All that said, I am not sure I see them putting a hub that isn't on a coast.

The density of the US population is still on the East Coast. CLE is the perfect location (over CMH, IND, MCI, STL, etc.) as its close to the East Coast--less than 500 miles from NYC---yet has a big population base---much bigger than CMH or IND or the others---at 4.5MM. All trips to the west of CLE could be mainline service---and feeder routes from the east could be E175s. Plus, CLE is a far bigger business city than CMH/IND---so greater support for biz class fares.

My thinking would be if you aren't going to go more in the middle of the country (to places I already listed) and go more east, then you might as well go all the way to the coast. You are going to have to use big planes to go west anyways, so you might as well put it in a bigger city on the coast that has a large population to draw from to start and go from there. Not to say a CLE/IND/CMH/PIT, etc wouldn't make a good mid east hub someday I just don't think it would be added before something on the coast and something more in the middle first.

The new TSA waiting-time system looks like a positive, passenger-requested addition to the flight info screens. The display will be added to the website soon..

http://www.cleveland.com/travel/index.s ... iver_index

For all the knocks, CLE chips away at improvements. Hopefully, this will lead to better things with the new director. Is the honeymoon over after 6 months or a year?

fun2fly wrote:

For all the knocks, CLE chips away at improvements. Hopefully, this will lead to better things with the new director. Is the honeymoon over after 6 months or a year?

Agreed and more positive changes to come, including a renewed focus on landside customer service. Director Robert Kennedy is working very hard to turn around a airport previously run as a huge, inefficient political patronage operation. I've already met and talked to him 3 times in the past several months. I never met the previous director in over 12 years!

Just an anecdote to demonstrate his sense of humor and humility: Mr. Kennedy approached a middle-aged, Hispanic cleaning person and introduced himself by saying, "Hello, I'm Robert Kennedy." The cleaning person replied, "And I'm Fidel Castro!" Director Kennedy laughed, explained who he was, and gave him his cell phone number and told him to call if he had any suggestions or questions. Let's hope he can stand up to the entrenched interests and make real improvements!

Frontier has extended their schedule into early November. Most notable is that the nonstop CLE-PDX and CLE-SEA flights continue to the end of the extension in November. In previous years SEA was seasonally discontinued in August.

This definitely shows that CLE to the pacific NW has been good for Frontier. CLE-SEA was one of the first routes announced by F9 after UA pulled the hub several years ago. This is a market that has grown nicely in recent years and I can see Frontier extending their season to potentially keep AS or DL from launching a competing nonstop.

Here's a look at CLE O&D (both ways combined) comparing 2013 Q3 (last summer of the United hub) to 2016 Q3. This is sorted by percent change between airport pairs:

Destination 2013Q3 2016Q3 %Change
DAL 21 62 188.78%
BOS 268 749 179.03%
JFK 69 186 170.19%
OAK 23 59 158.85%
MIA 94 228 141.24%
MCO 368 858 133.30%
DFW 335 657 96.14%
FLL 268 498 85.96%
CLT 156 279 78.64%
PHX 284 505 78.02%
TPA 225 397 76.31%
ATL 392 689 75.78%
LAS 530 926 74.67%
RSW 182 311 70.64%
BUR 8 14 69.74%
PHL 216 360 67.22%
DEN 482 800 66.09%
LAX 589 960 62.99%
DCA 156 252 61.40%
SJC 32 48 48.66%
SEA 259 372 43.67%
RDU 157 215 36.87%
PDX 170 229 34.70%
SAN 167 200 19.71%
SFO 517 603 16.59%
ORD 710 798 12.34%
IAD 63 68 9.39%
BNA 346 378 9.27%
MDW 419 440 5.09%
MSP 323 338 4.68%
LGA 625 635 1.49%
ONT 41 41 0.26%
EWR 339 301 -11.25%
ISP 16 13 -15.17%
SNA 121 102 -15.66%
HOU 78 64 -17.90%
IAH 280 228 -18.64%
HPN 6 5 -21.43%
BWI 442 315 -28.75%
LGB 1 1 -30.00%
MHT 72 30 -57.88%
SWF 7 3 -62.90%
PVD 119 38 -68.58%

Interesting to see the growth in JFK considering there's been no LCC stimulation there. No surprise seeing MHT and PVD traffic plummet with the loss of the nonstop flights in favor of BOS. It's also interesting to see that AA adding CLE-DCA seems to have stolen quite a bit of traffic from BWI. MIA growth has also been impressive, likely due to AA matching the ULCC and LCC fares to FLL.

^Interesting, thanks. The JFK increase may well be the entry of B6 and people flying CLE-JFK via BOS. Interesting to me is the overall stagnancy of Cleveland-NYC, given both economies have picked up between 2013 and 2016, especially NYC's.

JFK 69 186 170.19%
LGA 625 635 1.49%
EWR 339 301 -11.25%
ISP 16 13 -15.17%
HPN 6 5 -21.43%

TOTAL 1055 1140 +8.06%

greenair727 wrote:

^Interesting, thanks. The JFK increase may well be the entry of B6 and people flying CLE-JFK via BOS. Interesting to me is the overall stagnancy of Cleveland-NYC, given both economies have picked up between 2013 and 2016, especially NYC's.

JFK 69 186 170.19%
LGA 625 635 1.49%
EWR 339 301 -11.25%
ISP 16 13 -15.17%
HPN 6 5 -21.43%

TOTAL 1055 1140 +8.06%

The NYC market is one of the largest from CLE, so the % change isn't that high even though the raw volume increase is about 85 pax per day. Price sensitivity to NYC is going to be among leisure travelers and fares still remain relatively high in this market. A LCC or ULCC carrier to NYC from CLE would have a huge effect of turning car trips to plane trips. With slot restrictions gone from EWR, perhaps F9 or NK would give this a shot.

The increase in O&D traffic to CLT is also surprising as this is a route that both United and US Airways competed on in 2013, but turned into a monopoly route with no ULCC presence in 2016. F9 is starting this route soon, and in my opinion, stands the best chance of success between MSP, IAH, and CLT.

lakeeffect wrote:

Frontier has extended their schedule into early November. Most notable is that the nonstop CLE-PDX and CLE-SEA flights continue to the end of the extension in November. In previous years SEA was seasonally discontinued in August.

CLE-SAN continues as well, all of which is good news. As F9's fleet continues to grow, maybe we'll see some of their flights go back to dailies. Even with 4x weekly, though, I've heard self-employed folks say it's possible (and very profitable) to use the ULCCs for business if you plan ahead and allow for delays.

lakeeffect wrote:

Interesting to see the growth in JFK considering there's been no LCC stimulation there. No surprise seeing MHT and PVD traffic plummet with the loss of the nonstop flights in favor of BOS. It's also interesting to see that AA adding CLE-DCA seems to have stolen quite a bit of traffic from BWI. MIA growth has also been impressive, likely due to AA matching the ULCC and LCC fares to FLL.

I wonder if some of the JFK growth is less people flying UA CLE-EWR-Europe and more people flying CLE-JFK and JFK-Europe on two tickets.

lakeeffect wrote:

Here's a look at CLE O&D (both ways combined) comparing 2013 Q3 (last summer of the United hub) to 2016 Q3. This is sorted by percent change between airport pairs:

Destination 2013Q3 2016Q3 %Change
JFK 69 186 170.19%

Interesting to see the growth in JFK considering there's been no LCC stimulation there.

Since I now have immediate family living on Long Island, I've learned a lot about how non-Manhattan New Yorkers travel. JFK is the local airport for millions of people in Brooklyn and Queens, plus Nassau County and the eastern end of Long Island, even more so since LaGuardia has become such an unreliable hassle. I think the growth CLE-JFK is seeing may reflect JFK taking some market share from LGA.

^But that's always been the case for folks to the east of Manhattan. I still think the biggest change over the past few years is that B6 entered the CLE market. If you do a search today for CLE-NYC--2 weeks out----AA/UA/DL may cost you $600, but B6 is $300---and B6 forces you into JFK. If you're flying CLE-NY and you don't mind a connection, B6 is always much cheaper than the non-stops or even the legacy carriers with a connection!

During the UA earnings conference, Kirby said UA intended to crank up domestic capacity by a couple of percent over their previous guidance. UA's CLE departures this summer are actually up (!!) by two (4.2%) over last year and capacity may be up a touch more through equipment subs, which matches Kirby's projection. He said all the cutting during the Smisek regime was a mistake.

I wonder if CLE could see a few more flights added back on former routes that are still dormant. UA can add capacity in CLE at pretty close to variable cost and even reduce the fixed cost burden per pax since their real estate costs are contractually so high. All those gates - might as well do something with them. Counter to this idea are the continuing AA cuts in PIT, where they had a nice focus operation going; and Kirby of course is ex-AA..

For what it's worth to this jfk discussion:

European airfares from cleveland are absolutely ridiculous right now. $600 more than Pittsburgh and $400 more than cak to cdg for economy.

It makes zero sense but it makes more sense to buy a ticket cle to BOS, JFK, or IAD and a separate ticket from that gateway to Europe. EWR offers no such arbitrage opportunity.

ncflyer i hear ya. Takin' the family to Italy in June. We booked tix in early March. It was $1900 RT from CLE for pretty much all the major airlines that fly transatlantic. So I used FF UA miles CAK-EWR, then booked for $1000 on LH. It was either that or drive to NYC or YYZ to save some serious coin. When we booked we might have saved $200 flying out of PIT or DTW.

I don't understand why INTL tix out of CLE are so high, even compared to other cities with little to no transatlantic service.

lakeeffect wrote:

Here's a look at CLE O&D (both ways combined) comparing 2013 Q3 (last summer of the United hub) to 2016 Q3. This is sorted by percent change between airport pairs:
...................... List No Shown

Are you certain that these numbers/%s don't include Connecting Traffic ?

ncflyer wrote:

For what it's worth to this jfk discussion:

European airfares from cleveland are absolutely ridiculous right now. $600 more than Pittsburgh and $400 more than cak to cdg for economy.

It makes zero sense but it makes more sense to buy a ticket cle to BOS, JFK, or IAD and a separate ticket from that gateway to Europe. EWR offers no such arbitrage opportunity.

It's crazy. Found the same exact issues for a recent trip. For business travelers it may not matter.

I did find that EWR for miles and then Swiss for TATL did produce similar savings as JFK.

Lots of people driving to YYZ also especially school groups to save $.

With these fares it is hard to imagine that it does not make sense for someone to launch TATL.

Here's some numbers. CLE to CDG $1800 to $1900 for decent connections, economy, peak summer. CAK $1400. PIT $1300 nonstop, more like $1100 for one stop. (And cheaper still for WOW).

Kicker is buy a r/t to CLE to Dulles for about $300 and a round trip from Dulles to CDG for about $800-- both on UA--. and CLE is in the game. BOS and JFK aren't quite as compelling, but they are a lot closer to $1100 than $1800.

Sad part is the consumer assumes the risk of a missed connection with two separate tickets, I would assume. I've learned the hard way never to check luggage to CDG but re checking bags is a royal pain and added risk.

Using June 6 to June 15, here are the cheapest flights in the Midwest-ish to Paris:

CVG: 1389 (Nonstop)
DAY: 1358 (1 Stop)
CMH: 1356 (1 Stop)
PIT: 946 (Nonstop), Price War with LCC Europe Service
IND: 1456 (1 Stop)
CLE: 1832 (1 Stop)
DTW: 1449 (1 Stop)
CAK: 1346 (1 Stop)
TOL: 1408 (1 Stop)

CLE's fares are ridiculous, but I am sure the PIT service is taking a lot of CMH/CLE traffic, they are getting up to 3 flights to Europe a day during the summer. I would agree CLE would need a LCC to get fares down, I wonder if a carrier would be willing to compete with the prices at PIT. The $946 fare on DL PIT-CDG is crazy for the midwest (and it's not a LCC). You know they are making a killing off these Europe flights though, I routinely book <$1000 fares on DL to Asia from CVG. Just for comparison, you could book 2 CVG-SEA-HKG rountrips for the same price as CLE-XXX-Europe, that is crazy! Though, LCCs know the second they would announce service at CLE, UA would offer <1000 fares on CLE-XXX-Europe.

I would love to see TATL service at CLE, its CSA with Akron/Canton combined is quite large, I would think an area that size could support at least a summer seasonal low frequency flight to Europe.

cvgComair wrote:

Using June 6 to June 15, here are the cheapest flights in the Midwest-ish to Paris:

CVG: 1389 (Nonstop)
DAY: 1358 (1 Stop)
CMH: 1356 (1 Stop)
PIT: 946 (Nonstop), Price War with LCC Europe Service
IND: 1456 (1 Stop)
CLE: 1832 (1 Stop)
DTW: 1449 (1 Stop)
CAK: 1346 (1 Stop)
TOL: 1408 (1 Stop)

CLE's fares are ridiculous, but I am sure the PIT service is taking a lot of CMH/CLE traffic, they are getting up to 3 flights to Europe a day during the summer. I would agree CLE would need a LCC to get fares down, I wonder if a carrier would be willing to compete with the prices at PIT. The $946 fare on DL PIT-CDG is crazy for the midwest (and it's not a LCC). You know they are making a killing off these Europe flights though, I routinely book <$1000 fares on DL to Asia from CVG. Just for comparison, you could book 2 CVG-SEA-HKG rountrips for the same price as CLE-XXX-Europe, that is crazy! Though, LCCs know the second they would announce service at CLE, UA would offer <1000 fares on CLE-XXX-Europe.

I would love to see TATL service at CLE, its CSA with Akron/Canton combined is quite large, I would think an area that size could support at least a summer seasonal low frequency flight to Europe.

I look at those fares and wonder how long DL will hang on to PIT-CDG with LCCs there, especially if it's not subsidized anymore.

cvgComair wrote:

Using June 6 to June 15, here are the cheapest flights in the Midwest-ish to Paris:

CLE: 1832 (1 Stop)

I just queried on ua.com and got an $886 r/t economy quote for 6/6-6/15 CLE-CDG. Much higher fares WERE quoted for various trips not including a Saturday night.

Update on AA's move to C. It looks like they should be there by May 15, and they're only taking 5 gates (C3, 5, 7, 9, 11). Ticket counter and baggage area will remain at the north end of the terminal for the time being.

Massey, that's the one way fare for the outbound fare you just quoted for those dates. I used the UA app.

ncflyer wrote:

Massey, that's the one way fare for the outbound fare you just quoted for those dates. I used the UA app.

Oops, you're right. The airlines I usually fly quote the r/t fare on the first screen. That makes the no-Saturday Y fares higher than business class was a few years ago - pointing out again what a mistake all those mergers were.

CLEguy wrote:

Update on AA's move to C. It looks like they should be there by May 15, and they're only taking 5 gates (C3, 5, 7, 9, 11). Ticket counter and baggage area will remain at the north end of the terminal for the time being.

New AA gates look good. New carpet, paint and LED lights.

^How many gates does AA have currently on A? Is the move to C an expansion? And if so, have there been any service announcements yet?

....and what is going to happen to the old AA gates on A....Allegiant?

chrisjake wrote:

....and what is going to happen to the old AA gates on A....Allegiant?

For Allegiant's operations at CLE, they only need one gate, possible a second if a flight is severely delayed. Looking at their schedule, they should never have more than one aircraft on the ground at CLE. At CVG, which they have significantly more flights, they only have 2 gates, with a third shared by G4/F9 during peak times. They have such low frequencies that they do not need many gates to operate.

DoT's January numbers indicate CLE boardings were down slightly from 279.8K to 277.8K, less that 1% with an overall load factor of 75% Ups and downs for Individual airlines were more dramatic. From best to worst, in terms of pax growth:

Airline 1/16 1/17 %change 1/17 L/F

B6 7,673 10,437 up 36% 74%
F9 25,830 31,516 up 22% 80%
DL 18,909 21,748 up 15% 77%
WN 39,124 42,700 up 9% 75%
AA 20,709 17,849 dn 13.8% 75%
UA 54,155 46,503 dn 14% 76%
NK 30,658 24,451 dn 20% 72%

These are mainline numbers only; no express carriers are included.

Experiment not going too well?

G4 CLE-FLL AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 CLE-MYR SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.2 NOV 0.4>0.1 DEC 0.5>0.1
G4 CLE-PGD SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.1 NOV 0.4>0.2 DEC 0.4>0.1
G4 CLE-PIE SEP 0.4>0.2
G4 CLE-SAV SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.6>0.1 NOV 0.6>0.2 DEC 0.6>0.1
G4 CLE-SFB SEP 0.4>0.2
G4 CLE-VPS SEP 0.3>0.0

fun2fly wrote:

Experiment not going too well?

G4 CLE-FLL AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 CLE-MYR SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.2 NOV 0.4>0.1 DEC 0.5>0.1
G4 CLE-PGD SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.1 NOV 0.4>0.2 DEC 0.4>0.1
G4 CLE-PIE SEP 0.4>0.2
G4 CLE-SAV SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.6>0.1 NOV 0.6>0.2 DEC 0.6>0.1
G4 CLE-SFB SEP 0.4>0.2
G4 CLE-VPS SEP 0.3>0.0

This is very typical for Allegiant in the fall and happens every season. Every year they load a large schedule and then trim it back. If you look at that full OAG thread, you'll see it's nearly all trims for G4 and the trims effect CVG, IND, PIT, and LCK too.

I do wonder how successful G4 has been at CLE thus far? They started with a lot of routes and the fares always seem to be rock bottom.

G4 is apparently ending Phoenix/Mesa at the end of April. Was that always planned as a seasonal cut? They have never hesitated to chop non-performing routes mid-season.

Dif subj: This thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1361057 askes the question where is an AA DC-7. It looks like CLE to me. Has anybody else got an opinion?

masseybrown wrote:

G4 is apparently ending Phoenix/Mesa at the end of April. Was that always planned as a seasonal cut? They have never hesitated to chop non-performing routes mid-season.

That flight was originally loaded as spring only when G4 launched CLE. However, I would not be shocked if MSY doesn't return now that NK is offering daily service. Anecdotally, I attempted to fly G4 from CLE to Florida earlier in the spring. The flight was ultimately cancelled due to mechanical issues and rescheduled 36 hours later. From what I've gathered this is nothing out of the ordinary for G4.

I think CLE is at maximum ULCC saturation at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see some reductions next winter.

fun2fly wrote:

Experiment not going too well?

G4 CLE-FLL AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 CLE-MYR SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.2 NOV 0.4>0.1 DEC 0.5>0.1
G4 CLE-PGD SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.1 NOV 0.4>0.2 DEC 0.4>0.1
G4 CLE-PIE SEP 0.4>0.2
G4 CLE-SAV SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.6>0.1 NOV 0.6>0.2 DEC 0.6>0.1
G4 CLE-SFB SEP 0.4>0.2
G4 CLE-VPS SEP 0.3>0.0

While yes Allegiant cuts flights during this time, CLE was cut especially far. Many routes (MSY/FLL/MSY/AZA) were "supposed" to be year-round, but most will only operate seasonally now. For a comparison on the extent of these cuts, CVG saw frequency reduced to VPS/MYR/DEN, while frequency was offset by adds to FLL/MSY.

When the OAG data for Feb comes out, I will be very interested to see the load factors. I think G4 thought growth at CLE would be similar to CVG, however, underestimated the LCC traffic already on NK at CLE. When G4 entered CVG, there were no LCC's (F9 had 1x/day to DEN), allowing G4 to expand rapidly and make many of its routes daily. I am still surprised they went in so hard into CLE, my guess is that they will pull back a little bit, revaluate, and begin expansion again in mid-2018.

Also from Massey's post, NK's load factor in CLE is quite underwhelming. Frontier really has first mover advantage in CLE, plus everything I can tell suggests that Frontier is pricing more aggressively than NK. They've gotta fill those A321s.

ncflyer wrote:

Also from Massey's post, NK's load factor in CLE is quite underwhelming. Frontier really has first mover advantage in CLE, plus everything I can tell suggests that Frontier is pricing more aggressively than NK. They've gotta fill those A321s.

Exactly, F9 came in with new service announcements within weeks of UA announcing the hub closure. They got a lot of publicity and name recognition being the first ULCC entrant and built on that over the past three years.

What I've noticed is how aggressively UA and AA are price matching F9 in CLE. You can now find CLE-SFO nonstop round trips on United for under $150. Same goes for CLT. UA had never been interested in price matching these types of carriers until now.

NK's loads from CLE in January were the worst since they started at 72%. NK's loads from CAK were even worse at 66%. I wonder if NK is cannibalizing themselves. The record warm winter in NE Ohio this past year probably didn't help either. It's harder to fill last minute warm weather escapes when it's 65 and partly sunny in Jan and Feb in northern Ohio.

lakeeffect wrote:

NK's loads from CLE in January were the worst since they started at 72%. NK's loads from CAK were even worse at 66%. I wonder if NK is cannibalizing themselves.

I thought the move into CAK was silly. Does the data show CLE's LFs dropping after entering CAK or was it always around 70%?

greenair727 wrote:

lakeeffect wrote:

NK's loads from CLE in January were the worst since they started at 72%. NK's loads from CAK were even worse at 66%. I wonder if NK is cannibalizing themselves.

I thought the move into CAK was silly. Does the data show CLE's LFs dropping after entering CAK or was it always around 70%?

I would say there is a notable difference, but it is not dramatic, there are plenty of 7_% months:
Aug 15': 75%
Sept 15': 74%
Oct 15': 80%
Nov 15': 72%
Dec 16': 78%
Jan 16': 77%
Feb 16': 84%
March 16': 89%
Apr 16': 76%
May 16': 82%
June 16': 86%
July 16': 91%
Aug 16': 86%
Sept 16': 82%
Oct 16': 84%
Nov 16': ???
Dec 16': ???
Jan 17': 72%

YOY, 15': 78%, 16': 77%, 17':72%

lakeeffect wrote:

NK's loads from CLE in January were the worst since they started at 72%. NK's loads from CAK were even worse at 66%. I wonder if NK is cannibalizing themselves.

Looks that way. CLE down about 6,000 pax; CAK up (from nothing) to about 10,000. Net gain 4,000. Was it worth it?

The Cleveland Clinic's London branch opening is scheduled for 2020. Cosgrove once stated that they were sending 50 people a day to Abu Dhabi during construction. I wonder if the London facility will get TATL service back.

masseybrown wrote:

The Cleveland Clinic's London branch opening is scheduled for 2020. Cosgrove once stated that they were sending 50 people a day to Abu Dhabi during construction. I wonder if the London facility will get TATL service back.

Amazing what the Clinic is able to do. If you can couple that volume with Phillips and a few others to LHR via AA/BA, you should have plenty of volume to justify the route year round.

^ I will be more encouraged if the airport does something soon about the FIS facility - something like build a new one near the new AA gates.

masseybrown wrote:

^ I will be more encouraged if the airport does something soon about the FIS facility - something like build a new one near the new AA gates.

Agreed as well! Doubtful though, I've been hearing about the FIS for over 10yrs now , of the city isn't even talking about it then it's still years away ( shame )!