What's Going In CLE - Part 14

SQ22 · Sat Sep 24, 2016 5:45 am

Please continue to post your updates and your discussion here.

Link to old thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=603315

masseybrown · Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:52 am

Air Canada has updated its schedule. The previous version showed all CLE-YYZ flights reverting to Dashes at the end of the summer season; the latest shows CRJs at least into January. I don't know if the Dashes were a mistake or if AC changed its plans.

greenair727 · Mon Sep 26, 2016 1:06 pm

For CLE-Europe, I've noticed AC is always notably cheaper than DL/UA/AA/BA/KL/AF/LH/TP, etc. so I think its interesting that even the CRJs provide enough capacity, let alone the Dashes. What percent of CLE-YYZ is O&D vs connections at YYZ? Either way, the CLE-YYZ numbers must be pretty low.

masseybrown · Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:21 pm

AC had been flying 5 DH1's (185 total seats per weekday); upgrading that to 4 CRJs (200 seats) wasn't a huge capacity addition. Supporting air travel is that fact that the short 168nm flight distance takes 5+ hours to drive. I think AC wants a better (ie, jet) image on the local route to support their TATL appeal. Despite the efficiency of props and the minor flying time advantage for jets on this route, pax demand jets; I have no doubt that lots of pax said no to a Toronto connection because of the DH1.

greenair727 · Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:15 pm

^I think that makes sense. Not sure of prices if you originate at YYZ instead of CLE, but if one is going to drive, unless YYZ is a much better price, one could drive two hours less and go to Detroit. I've never connected at YYZ, though not for the prop vs. jet issues, but a general decision not to fly AC after a bad experience with them.

joeman · Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:14 pm

greenair727 wrote:
^I think that makes sense. Not sure of prices if you originate at YYZ instead of CLE, but if one is going to drive, unless YYZ is a much better price, one could drive two hours less and go to Detroit. I've never connected at YYZ, though not for the prop vs. jet issues, but a general decision not to fly AC after a bad experience with them.

I have 2 friends travelling CLE-FRA on AC just last week. They drove the CLE-YYZ portion to save nearly $500 according to them. Roundtrip CLE-YYZ is about $550 checking Expedia, but LGA-YYZ is below $270 for the same time frames, thanks to competition and all that NYC "yield".

masseybrown · Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:49 am

Good news for the local economy: Since mid-September, UPS is operating a second Louisville flight on most days - a widebody (type varies from day to day) plus a 752.

greenair727 · Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:44 pm

^Is the 752 the new flight?

greenair727 · Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:28 pm

At the Burke Corporate Expo last week or so, Ultimate Air said they would begin Chicago and New York (MMU) by Spring of 2017.

masseybrown · Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:33 pm

greenair727 wrote:
^Is the 752 the new flight?

Yes. UPS had been operating an MD11 on most days. An MD11 is, in container terms, the equal of 2 752s, so the new 752 plus *any* wide body is an increase over the single MD11. The previous boost from an A306 to the MD11 was rumored (not by UPS) to be caused by Cleveland Health Labs testing more blood samples drawn nationally. This year CHL is ramping up a new test for trimethylamine-N-oxide - a unique CHL product. Maybe this is the cause of the September bump in capacity - just my speculation.

Edit: Make that Cleveland Heart Lab, not Health Lab. Also, great news about Ultimate; I guess their rez system is working well.

greenair727 · Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:37 pm

^If all that new capacity is CHL, that's a lot of whole lot of blood flying into CLE each day!

Yes, was happy to hear about the Ultimate expansion at BKL. I just hope they stay on schedule.

masseybrown · Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:03 pm

CLE's RFP for an air service development consultant drew interest from Sixel Consulting Group and Seabury APG. Sixel's clients have tended to be small airports, while Seabury has a history with CLE and claims in a presser to be the reason Spirit chose to serve CLE. I'm guessing Seabury will continue in the job.

lakeeffect · Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:28 pm

masseybrown wrote:
CLE's RFP for an air service development consultant drew interest from Sixel Consulting Group and Seabury APG. Sixel's clients have tended to be small airports, while Seabury has a history with CLE and claims in a presser to be the reason Spirit chose to serve CLE. I'm guessing Seabury will continue in the job.

In terms of carriers, CLE is certainly becoming well served. There aren't many airports, especially of CLE's size, that can boast service on Southwest, JetBlue, Frontier, Spirit, and Allegiant. From a domestic standpoint, all that's really left is Alaska adding service for major carriers. Development is going to have to focus on adding daily service to those mid size business markets, which is going to be a huge challenge and a TATL flight that so many other mid size markets are trying for.

Is OneJet still looking at CLE? That's probably the best chance at getting back service to markets like IND, ALB, and MCI.

masseybrown · Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:09 pm

lakeeffect wrote:
masseybrown wrote:
Is OneJet still looking at CLE? That's probably the best chance at getting back service to markets like IND, ALB, and MCI.

I don't think so. Jim Rohr, a native Clevelander and also former chairman of PNC, bought into the company and they are now very Pittsburgh-focused.

For CLE, I'd put my chips on Ultimate Shuttle. They are a Canton-based company, familiar with northern Ohio. While their current business model doesn't fit CLE-xxx, things could change. One obstacle at CLE: they need a partner for long-haul interlining and I don't know who that would be. AA would be perhaps the most likely, but I doubt CLE gets a whole lot of AA's attention these days.

Edit: The latest issue of Ultimate's inflight magazine has a couple of adverts by Cleveland companies, Jack Casino and Benz of North Olmsted. I think that's a first and it shows Ultimate is paying attention.

AirportRival · Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:38 pm

masseybrown wrote:
One obstacle at CLE: they need a partner for long-haul interlining and I don't know who that would be. AA would be perhaps the most likely, but I doubt CLE gets a whole lot of AA's attention these days.

Why would they need a partner at CLE? They are a public charter. They don't have interlining. They don't even offer connections in LUK which is a bigger operation than BLK.

masseybrown · Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:04 pm

AirportRival wrote:
Why would they need a partner at CLE? They are a public charter. They don't have interlining. They don't even offer connections in LUK which is a bigger operation than BLK.

Lakeeffect was talking about relatively thin routes. CLE-ALB is about 100 pax a day, meaning that anybody flying that route needs to carry pax beyond CLE. If eventually Ultimate wants to get into that sort of flying, their current business model (public charters) would have to change.

masseybrown · Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:20 pm

A poster on another board says that AA's gate relocation from Concourse A to C will be delayed until March 2017. I wonder what's behind that.

greenair727 · Mon Oct 10, 2016 5:11 pm

Ultimate Air Shuttle's BKL-MMU route announced in the Plain Dealer today:

"CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Ultimate Air Shuttle, which launched service from Cleveland's Burke Lakefront Airport to Cincinnati a year ago, plans to add a flight to the New York City area in early 2017. Rick Pawlak, managing director of the airline, said he's unsure exactly when the new route will begin – hopefully no later than early March. Expect round-trip fares to be in the $600-$650 range, depending on what happens with fuel prices in the next few months....Also in the works: a nonstop flight from Burke to Chicago's Midway Airport, for sometime later in 2017."

http://www.cleveland.com/travel/index.s ... ns_to.html

masseybrown · Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:04 am

In the "way out there" rumor world, a poster on another board says CLE is in negotiations with WOW Air for service to Iceland and onward to Europe. WOW wouldn't be my first choice, but it's an interesting one. Ben Baldanza, who left Spirit last January, is now on WOW's board of directors; he had a good experience with Spirit's CLE startup. If you want to stretch it, there is no real reason that WOW and Spirit couldn't set up some kind of codeshare.

Cleveland-London via Iceland is only about 200 miles longer than nonstop.

greenair727 · Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:09 pm

That's great! I believe I mentioned on here once that WOW would be a good pursuit for CLE.....

Does WOW have 5th freedom rights between Iceland and Europe?
Where in Europe would it serve?
For CLE pax destined for Europe and not Iceland, do they have to de-board at Iceland and go through security to get into Europe? (on the reverse trip to the US, I assume they would have to).

masseybrown · Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:44 pm

WOW already flies from their Iceland hub to most of the major cities/countries in Europe except Switzerland. Iceland is not a member of the EU (they applied but changed their minds); so I guess the usual transit security arrangements (get off. get checked, reboard) would apply.

klakzky123 · Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:28 pm

masseybrown wrote:
WOW already flies from their Iceland hub to most of the major cities/countries in Europe except Switzerland. Iceland is not a member of the EU (they applied but changed their minds); so I guess the usual transit security arrangements (get off. get checked, reboard) would apply.

Iceland isn't part of the EU but is part of the Schengen area so you only have to do immigration once at Iceland. Onward flights from Iceland are no different than traveling between most EU countries (essentially Domestic flights) Switzerland is also part of Schengen as well so no issues there.

klakzky123 · Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:37 pm

greenair727 wrote:
That's great! I believe I mentioned on here once that WOW would be a good pursuit for CLE.....

Does WOW have 5th freedom rights between Iceland and Europe?
Where in Europe would it serve?
For CLE pax destined for Europe and not Iceland, do they have to de-board at Iceland and go through security to get into Europe? (on the reverse trip to the US, I assume they would have to).

Iceland is part of the EU single aviation common area so WOW can pretty much travel at will between ECAA countries.

masseybrown · Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:43 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
masseybrown wrote:
WOW already flies from their Iceland hub to most of the major cities/countries in Europe except Switzerland. Iceland is not a member of the EU (they applied but changed their minds); so I guess the usual transit security arrangements (get off. get checked, reboard) would apply.

Iceland isn't part of the EU but is part of the Schengen area so you only have to do immigration once at Iceland. Onward flights from Iceland are no different than traveling between most EU countries (essentially Domestic flights) Switzerland is also part of Schengen as well so no issues there.

I appreciate the correction. I guess we'll hear about this rumor by the end of November if it's real.

greenair727 · Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:36 pm

Would the flight be CLE-RKV or CLE-RKV-???, and if the latter, would it be LHR, CDG, AMS, another? I realize one could connect to anywhere in RKV, but if not ticketed (or sold/marketed) as a through flight from CLE, its no different than a pax in CLE going to EWR/JFK/ATL/DTW/ORD for a connection for a flight to Continental Europe.

masseybrown · Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:40 am

greenair727 wrote:
Would the flight be CLE-RKV or CLE-RKV-???, and if the latter, would it be LHR, CDG, AMS, another?

From looking at KEF departures, it seems that Wow operates a hub just like all the other hubs - planes shuttle to/from spoke cities with few one-stop through flights. Most KEF-US flights are A321, most KEF-Europe are A320.

We should hear before too long. The IATA summer slot conference is 8-11 November. The 2017 schedule plans are more or less public knowledge after that.

lakeeffect · Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:57 pm

The WOW rumor is certainly interesting. On one hand, looking at their North American route map, one could easily say that CLE does not fit in to their model. On the other hand, a quick glance at the list of ULCC destinations that are served/will be served from CLE and it doesn't seem that much of a stretch. Over 20% of CLE's O&D passengers are flying on an ULCC and that number will grow even higher with Allegiant starting service soon. So for a carrier like WOW, which has all the ancillary fees, they would be entering a market that is very familiar with that fee structure and could perhaps code share with one of the existing ULCCs that are here.

masseybrown · Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:04 pm

lakeeffect wrote:
... looking at their North American route map, one could easily say that CLE does not fit in to their model.

I thought about that. If you look at Icelandic's route map, you see that they have already locked up most of the usual suspects (ORD, MSP, PHL, MCO, TPA, SEA, PDX, DEN, BOS, EWR, JFK, and IAD). WOW has MIA (2017), LAX, SFO, and BWI as exclusives plus JFK and BOS.

Outside of the really big airports, there's probably room for only one airline route to Iceland per city, so what's left that's a decent market and within A321 range of KEF, realistically, 3000nm with 222 passengers? DTW, PIT, IND, MKE, STL, CLE and ??? DTW has a ton of TATL service already, PIT has CDG, Suddenly, CLE doesn't look bad at all. Maybe split the week CLE/STL for 2017 and go daily in the summer of 2018?

WOW's got a small fleet, however, with 4 A321's for delivery after 2016, although they have been wet leasing additional lift from Air Europa. Will they have the equipment for 2017? I'm not holding my breath, but it seems possible.

iFlyDTW · Wed Oct 12, 2016 5:17 pm

masseybrown wrote:
lakeeffect wrote:
DTW has a ton of TATL service already

DTW has a lot of TATL, but there's still a lot of passengers that are looking for the lower cost option which DTW doesn't have to Europe like most airports of that size do, so FI or WOW would probably add that before CLE, or one goes to DTW and the other goes to CLE kind of thing. WOW actually would be perfect for CLE like FI would be perfect for DTW IMO.

masseybrown · Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:21 pm

DOT put out their July airport numbers. CLE was interesting; overall O&D was up y-o-y about 40,000 (5.7%) and slightly from June but load factors for July fell almost 3% overall and 3-5% for the legacies. I wonder if the Republican convention actually drove away almost as much business as it brought in.

International for April continued the large gains seen all year going from 9,984 in 2015 to 13,708 this year, up 37%.

greenair727 · Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:41 pm

Interesting. The RNC seems to have scared away normal business during that week. Downtown restaurants in general (except serving the convention parties) were mostly empty, that I observed. The city did a big job of scaring folks away for any non-RNC business.

Re international---37% is a big jump. This is non-connecting, right? If so, where are these numbers from--Punta Cana? Cancun? Toronto?

lakeeffect · Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:22 pm

I'd use CLE's international statistics versus the DOT. It all comes down to charter versus scheduled. Frontier has flown international from CLE since they started a few years ago. Only now are these flights showing up on the DOT site, so it's not really an increase, it's just a matter of classification. Nonetheless international is still up over 12% this year. Nearly all of that is CUN, YYZ, and PUJ.

It was expected that convention traffic was going to basically replace normal traffic at CLE that week. You probably had a lot of empty planes turning around after dropping off a full flight and vice versa at the end of the week. That would overall hurt load factors.

July ended up being Frontier's busiest month at CLE since they started. Hopefully all the west coast flights did well enough to return next year. Perhaps F9 would opt for CLE-SAN next year instead of competing with 2 other carriers to LAX?

lakeeffect · Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:01 am

It's not that hard to fill up planes in the summer, but here's a look at Frontier's load factors for CLE in July. Frontier had their highest pax count at CLE this July since starting service. The west coast flights seemed to be quite full and the fares weren't all that cheap considering F9's ULCC status. PHL is disappointing, especially considering these flights were easily had for $30 one way. Hopefully the west coast flights return when F9 publishes their late spring/summer schedules.

RSW 95.5%
LAX 93.3%
TPA 93.3%
ATL 93.1%
SEA 93.1%
LAS 92.9%
SFO 92.9%
PHX 91.8%
MCO 88.5%
DEN 87.7%
RDU 87.5%
PDX 81.4%
PHL 76.0%

July was also the first full month of the resumed WN CLE-STL flight which had an 83.9% load factor.

masseybrown · Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:55 pm

lakeeffect wrote:
July was also the first full month of the resumed WN CLE-STL flight which had an 83.9% load factor.

Which is even more impressive given that the flights in both directions are poorly timed for business travelers. They must be aimed at STL connections.

fun2fly · Fri Oct 21, 2016 2:31 pm

CLE will be busy with Hillary and the Donald this weekend! BKL with Obama last week. Fun times for spotters.

greenair727 · Sun Oct 23, 2016 2:41 pm

From Enilria's weekly YoY OAG change list:

F9 CLE-CUN JAN 1.0>0.5 FEB 1.0>0.6 MAR 1.0>0.6

Isn't Jan-March high season on this route? If so, is it noteworthy what F9 is decreasing capacity on it?

masseybrown · Sun Oct 23, 2016 3:38 pm

greenair727 wrote:
Isn't Jan-March high season on this route? If so, is it noteworthy what F9 is decreasing capacity on it?

Frontier's flights match what Apple Vacation wants - mid-week is really slow on these routes. Plus, UA will again offer 2 a week on Sat and Sun.

What I'm getting out of the last several of Enilria's OAG threads is the big guys, esp. AA and UA, are doing a lot of trimming at their megahubs and CLE is coming out of it relatively unscathed. Still, with all the trimming and reports (well-founded or not) of the economy softening, it's probably a mistake to look for much in the way of adds in 2017.

greenair727 · Sun Oct 23, 2016 3:54 pm

^ Except Iceland! (hopefully....)

thedetroitpole · Sun Oct 23, 2016 5:56 pm

greenair727 wrote:
^ Except Iceland! (hopefully....)

I feel like Cleveland is definitely on a short list for either WOW or Icelandair, I can also see Aer Lingus and Norwegian being possibilities too, seeming that they all provide fair European connections. All of the four would be a good move for Cleveland, though, realistically it will only be one for a while.

jbpdx · Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:00 pm

lakeeffect wrote:

July ended up being Frontier's busiest month at CLE since they started. Hopefully all the west coast flights did well enough to return next year. Perhaps F9 would opt for CLE-SAN next year instead of competing with 2 other carriers to LAX?

The CLE-PDX nonstop has not been operating for weeks. I've been trying to find out what happened to it and nobody seems to know or want to comment. The LAX, SFO and PHL flights, which Frontier launched in April at the same time as Portland, are still operating. ???

mariner · Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:41 pm

jbpdx wrote:
The CLE-PDX nonstop has not been operating for weeks. I've been trying to find out what happened to it and nobody seems to know or want to comment. The LAX, SFO and PHL flights, which Frontier launched in April at the same time as Portland, are still operating. ???

I can't swear to it on a bible, but CLE-PDX may have been affected by the delayed A320Neo delivery process. N301FR was sitting around ready to go for over three months and was only finally delivered last week. It's explained in this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1345677

"From all appearances Indigo Partners dropped the ball on the mx side and assumed minimal modifications to their existing Airbus operating procedures. The FAA viewed the 320neo as a "new" type and required a number of neo maintenance steps be completed prior to certification to fly. What should have been a slam dunk to having the A320neo flying by mid-September, turned into a major roadblock. Only now it seems that Frontier has satisfactorily completed what the FAA requires. It remains to be seen how quickly they can get the next two A320neos here and up and flying."

It had a knock-on affect - Frontier was short of aircraft so schedule adjustments had to be made. It's resolved now and the next two should be coming in soon, with two more in the immediate pipeline.

mariner

masseybrown · Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:50 pm

thedetroitpole wrote:
I feel like Cleveland is definitely on a short list for either WOW or Icelandair, I can also see Aer Lingus and Norwegian being possibilities too ...

Crain's Cleveland just published a list of area colleges/universities. The CLE-catchment student population is 150,000. If you figure OSU students might be attracted to a budget European flight and add in locals who go away to school, the number is easily over 200,000. If only 5% of that number went to Europe per year, students alone would fill a bunch of flights. And yet the budget European airlines only *talk* about serving secondary cities; they actually fly mostly to the usual big markets - so far, anyway.

jbpdx · Sun Oct 23, 2016 8:25 pm

Also, Frontier never said in the press release whether the four cities added in April (LAX, SFO, PDX, PHL) were seasonal, just 3 or 4 days a week.

mariner · Sun Oct 23, 2016 8:28 pm

jbpdx wrote:
Also, Frontier never said in the press release whether the four cities added in April (LAX, SFO, PDX, PHL) were seasonal, just 3 or 4 days a week.

Generally, anything east-west added in spring is seasonal, although there are sometimes exceptions. The usual rule is east-west in summer, north-south in winter.

mariner

fun2fly · Sun Oct 23, 2016 8:41 pm

masseybrown wrote:
thedetroitpole wrote:
I feel like Cleveland is definitely on a short list for either WOW or Icelandair, I can also see Aer Lingus and Norwegian being possibilities too ...

Crain's Cleveland just published a list of area colleges/universities. The CLE-catchment student population is 150,000. If you figure OSU students might be attracted to a budget European flight and add in locals who go away to school, the number is easily over 200,000. If only 5% of that number went to Europe per year, students alone would fill a bunch of flights. And yet the budget European airlines only *talk* about serving secondary cities; they actually fly mostly to the usual big markets - so far, anyway.

Interesting point as the local Cleveland high school trip to Ireland this year took a bus to Toronto to save a few hundred bucks/pax on flights. I have no idea if this is normal or not, but I'm sure the right carrier/price could have captured this.

Is Biden headed to BKL or CLE tomorrow?

ncflyer · Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:44 pm

Oh yeah it is so common that people leave CLE for international flights. One high school nearby sent three buses to ORD, two to PHL, and one to DTW for a trip to Spain. It was a very large trip, which CLE could hardly handle unless a charter was somehow brought in. That has to happen all the time. . .

I know people who drive to YYZ, that has to be one of the cheapest gateways in North America to overseas. If you have a family of four, wow the drive is just well worth the savings.

On a separate note can we all agree that the steady state post hub CLE is boring and disappointing? Just not a lot of action in CLE anymore-- sorry I just can't get excited about non-daily service from Allegiant. Seems like some non hub airports in the South such as RDU or BNA or even for that matter MCI get a lot more love from the airlines.

greenair727 · Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:04 pm

ncflyer--what school was that that did that?

ncflyer · Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:53 pm

I don't like posting about minors' activities call me paranoid. Let's just say google largest high school marching band in OH and you'll be on to something.

joeman · Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:47 am

ncflyer wrote:
On a separate note can we all agree that the steady state post hub CLE is boring and disappointing? Seems like some non hub airports in the South such as RDU or BNA or even for that matter MCI get a lot more love from the airlines.

Agreed

Frictionfool · Tue Oct 25, 2016 1:24 am

greenair727 wrote:
ncflyer--what school was that that did that?

I was on that school trip you are talking about. Quite a logistical challenge for the tour operator. They managed to get 300 students and 150 family and friends to MAD within a 3 hr window. The flights that were mentioned were just for the students. The family and friends went via 3 different itineraries: via EWR on UA, via JFK on DL, and bus to DTW then via FRA on LH.

I wondered if chartering a 744 would have been cheaper. Even so we would have needed more lift than that. For instance, a DL 744 seats only 376, and we needed about 450 seats.

All this rigamarole shows that CLE could really use a nonstop flight to Europe. If it can eliminate a connection, people will take it. I got to do that once. Flew LYS-CDG-CLE on the inaugural CDG-CLE flt back in 2008 on CO.

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