Came into work this morning to find numerous schedule changes from EK.

They've dropped their plans to resume A380 flights from DFW September 1.

Thoughts? ,

One word, competition. With ME3 service to DFW plus OneWorld service via LHR, that's a huge number of seats to fill. Even for EK, the yield pressure was so much (on a very long route) that it made sense to back down to a 77W.

No surprise at all. Met an Emirates pilot while traveling earlier this year and he assured me the A380 was pulled off DFW purely for scheduling reasons and would of course resume later this year - I expressed my healthy skepticism. The load factors told us everything we needed to know - even with the extensive connectivity to India and elsewhere, the market simply does not need that much capacity on top of the hundreds upon hundreds of daily seats already heading east (to Europe on AA, BA and Lufthansa, and the Middle East on Qatar and Etihad) that cater to many of the same connections. Plus, for those connections that are flowing over the Middle East, Qatar has a huge advantage of drawing a lot of the AA/AAdvantage-captive traffic which - needless to say - is no small portion of the market in DFW.

They probably looked at loads and decided that DFW doesn't currently have the premium demand to make selling that many F and J seats profitable. I think ( you can correct me) that the DFW flight mainly serves people connecting onwards to India and Pakistan. If that's true, then demand is probably more price sensitive. The IAH flight used to sell premium cabins to the energy industry, but with that in the doldrums, a 77W is all EK can fill out of IAH these days too.

OAG shows A388 but Emirates.com does indeed show B77W. Not a shock indeed.

Sooner787 wrote:

Came into work this morning to find numerous schedule changes from EK.

They've dropped their plans to resume A380 flights from DFW September 1.

Thoughts? ,

That's disappointing. Could you post the link to that schedule change announcement?

And there is also competition, to a lesser degree, from QF, KE, JL and AA going west.

audian wrote:

Sooner787 wrote:

Came into work this morning to find numerous schedule changes from EK.

They've dropped their plans to resume A380 flights from DFW September 1.

Thoughts? ,

That's disappointing. Could you post the link to that schedule change announcement?

I would if I could, the announcement went directly to the bossman who advised us

Hey Dallas,

Ours is bigger!

Love,
Houston


For real though, if oneworld is pushing down EKs pax numbers, wouldnt QR be able to send an A380? How is EY doing?

Apollo shows the 380 service will resume on March 26th 2017.

TWA772LR wrote:

Hey Dallas,

Ours is bigger!

Love,
Houston

Frankly, all kidding aside, IAH should be getting more and larger aircraft to the Gulf than DFW - while DFW has the larger market to/from India, IAH has by far the larger and stronger commercial connections to the Gulf region itself.

TWA772LR wrote:

For real though, if oneworld is pushing down EKs pax numbers, wouldnt QR be able to send an A380?

No. The market doesn't need an A380 from any of these airlines - there simply is not enough demand to go around to profitably support that kind of capacity. Considering the amount of life from DFW heading across the Atlantic providing connectivity even further east, 777s should be more than enough from all of the ME3 at DFW.

Well, at least DFW still gets daily 380 service from QF,
plus BA resumes 744 service on 30 Oct

QB737 wrote:

Apollo shows the 380 service will resume on March 26th 2017.

EK's own res system is also showing this

It appears to be EK has permanently pulled A380 out of DFW. Given that Etihad going daily from Feb, I think its a wise idea to keep the 773 ER on the DFW route and maintain meaningful loads.

It is interesting to see how so many people on Airliners.net view demand to/from India/Pakistan/Middle East as a bottomless pit of gold when in reality demand to and from those regions to and from United States is finite.

dfwjim1 wrote:

It is interesting to see how so many people on Airliners.net view demand to/from India/Pakistan/Middle East as a bottomless pit of gold when in reality demand to and from those regions to and from United States is finite.

Yep, even when the fare is less than $700rt all in, and it often is, across multiple carriers

audian wrote:

It appears to be EK has permanently pulled A380 out of DFW. Given that Etihad going daily from Feb, I think its a wise idea to keep the 773 ER on the DFW route and maintain meaningful loads.

Guess DFW will have to wait until EK begins 779 service to get an upguage in equipment

On one hand I'd say that BOS will get that A380. On the other hand, I'm not so sure it's needed there, either (notwithstanding the three A380 gates soon to be finished at Logan).

The writing was on the wall once they pulled it temporarily. The load factors published were clearly underperforming compared to earlier 77L service and the summer did very little to help.

The 77W has been performing wonderfully and is just the right fit. Maybe we'll see a 777X in a few years.

Although economically Dallas is not as petroleum dependent as Houston it remains a sizable part of its job and corporate base. OPEC's attempt to curtail petroleum production seems to be falling apart with Iran and Saudi Arabia at loggerheads. The trend for petroleum seems to be on another downward price slide. Is there any sense what EK is pulling in LF from petroleum and how this newest slide might be affecting their choice of 777 over A380?

Boston ? -yes most likely.Just a general question.Emirates has a bucket load of new A380's coming on stream next year.Have the primarily destinations for them been earmarked?

Independence76 wrote:

The writing was on the wall once they pulled it temporarily. The load factors published were clearly underperforming compared to earlier 77L service and the summer did very little to help.

The 77W has been performing wonderfully and is just the right fit. .

Sure, and a route has to be analysed in the context of the whole network.

Emirates may have identified another route where they can sell all those 380's F and J seats at a higher yield. However, with all the new 380's being received, it's hard (but not impossible) to point out which route got the DFW plane.

Looking at EK's route map, I'd say the following are the most likely destinations to offload excess A380s (currently scheduled capacity in brackets):

SIN (2 A380 + 2 77W)
BKK (5 A380)
HKG (2 A380 + 1 77W)
KUL (2 A380 + 1 77W)

DEL (4 77W) - maybe after new bilateral with India
JNB (1 A380 + 3 77W) - first A380 flight not until February

MAD (1 A380 + 1 77W)
VIE (1 A380 + 1 77W)
MXP (2 A380 + 1 77W)
NCE (1 77W) - originally scheduled to go A380 before terrorist attack there, possibly late 2017 EK will try again
HAM (2 77W) - ??? airport upgrades
DUB (2 77W) - ??? airport upgrades
WAW (1 77W) - ??? airport upgrades

BOS (2 77W)
ORD (1 77W)
SFO (1 A380)
MCO (1 77W) - maybe late 2017, not sure if they have any gates ready

dfwjim1 wrote:

It is interesting to see how so many people on Airliners.net view demand to/from India/Pakistan/Middle East as a bottomless pit of gold when in reality demand to and from those regions to and from United States is finite.

Not sure that's really accurate - most discussions here also acknowledge that with few exceptions, NA-India traffic is relatively low-yielding. Which is one reason (of many) that NA-India routes are uniquely suited for the ME3. But even EK simply cannot operate an A380 somewhere without generating adequate yields. No shocker they haven't been able to do that from DFW. IIRC their A380 J class isn't even lie-flat? Even AA/BA can get you to at least BOM or DEL in a lie-flat J seat.

9w748capt wrote:

dfwjim1 wrote:

It is interesting to see how so many people on Airliners.net view demand to/from India/Pakistan/Middle East as a bottomless pit of gold when in reality demand to and from those regions to and from United States is finite.

Not sure that's really accurate - most discussions here also acknowledge that with few exceptions, NA-India traffic is relatively low-yielding. Which is one reason (of many) that NA-India routes are uniquely suited for the ME3. But even EK simply cannot operate an A380 somewhere without generating adequate yields. No shocker they haven't been able to do that from DFW. IIRC their A380 J class isn't even lie-flat? Even AA/BA can get you to at least BOM or DEL in a lie-flat J seat.

BA actually has pretty decent coverage in India beyond BOM + DEL. I think it's just hard to attract premium US origin traffic to India in cities dominated by one airline. This is why DFW & SFO have not been the boon they should be for the ME3. A flight to India can be a big EQM earner for premium pax. I wouldn't fly anything other than Skyteam to India for that reason. Also Indians don't mind LHR because it's perceived as familiar. The notion that India is low yielding is partly true. The ME3 tend to fly their best planes to India with F class to BOM, DEL & perhaps BLR. US & Western airlines historically flew their worst planes to India or gave a horrible customer experience (see AF and the CDG disasters for Indian passport holders during IRROPS). If 9W gets its partnership with DL/AF right, I think EK will continue to feel pressure.

dfwjim1 wrote:

And there is also competition, to a lesser degree, from QF, KE, JL and AA going west.

Depending on the final destination, going west is not always be the best option. I personally would do it though. Arriving at DXB at 2:00 a.m.(or really any of the banked arrival/departure times) when the terminal is packed with passengers is not a great experience. Is the terminal nice? Yes, but navigating it can be quite a pain.

9w748capt wrote:

dfwjim1 wrote:

IIRC their A380 J class isn't even lie-flat? Even AA/BA can get you to at least BOM or DEL in a lie-flat J seat.

Much to your disappointment, EK A380s do have a lie flat seat.




While it has been mentioned quote a few times, a refresher is needed as to the DFW A380 downgrade.

* The termination of interline agreement with AA played a major role in the switch from the A380 to a B77W. MEX was one of the popular places EK connected to via DFW.
* Add to the fact that the current timings do not allow good connections to AMD, COK, TRV, LHE, ISB, DAC where QR and EY have an advantage. Hence switching your target market was not an option either.

As result with the existing markets they were competitive it was better to get it to a B77W.

I know they have lots and lots of A380s and 777s on order and have rapidly grown but it does appear to me that EK is feeling some pressure in multiple areas.

9w748capt wrote:

dfwjim1 wrote:

It is interesting to see how so many people on Airliners.net view demand to/from India/Pakistan/Middle East as a bottomless pit of gold when in reality demand to and from those regions to and from United States is finite.

Not sure that's really accurate - most discussions here also acknowledge that with few exceptions, NA-India traffic is relatively low-yielding. Which is one reason (of many) that NA-India routes are uniquely suited for the ME3. But even EK simply cannot operate an A380 somewhere without generating adequate yields. No shocker they haven't been able to do that from DFW. IIRC their A380 J class isn't even lie-flat? Even AA/BA can get you to at least BOM or DEL in a lie-flat J seat.

Just did BA Club World DEL-DFW - their J product is nowhere near EK - I had flown A380 to LAX and 77W back from SEA earlier this year - Club World is far too narrow a seat in my opinion compared to EK. The other problem with BA via LHR is the long layover (I had 5.5 hours; an earlier AA flight from T3 is possible). But my sort of travel has my hosts pay - as I was flying back from DTW I actually wanted to fly QR from ORD (I did BA from ORD) and I was told that BA was the cheapest option on J on my route. Cheaper than EK and QR and cheaper than LH (via FRA) or a Skyteam option the last two which would have allowed me to depart from DTW instead. The hard product certainly felt cheaper.

9w748capt wrote:

Not sure that's really accurate - most discussions here also acknowledge that with few exceptions, NA-India traffic is relatively low-yielding. Which is one reason (of many) that NA-India routes are uniquely suited for the ME3. But even EK simply cannot operate an A380 somewhere without generating adequate yields. No shocker they haven't been able to do that from DFW. IIRC their A380 J class isn't even lie-flat? Even AA/BA can get you to at least BOM or DEL in a lie-flat J seat.

Exactly. I don't think anyone serious has been under any illusions about the reality of the economics of the U.S-South Asia market. In general, the distances are incredibly long and the yields incredibly low. Thus precisely the reason why the ME3, state owned and with hubs perfectly situated to cater to this connectivity, have come to dominate. But eventually economic reality has to sink in for any airline - even Emirates. Flying a two-thirds-empty A380 8,000 mi to DFW was a pointless waste of resources. Personally, if I was Emirates I'd be far more concerned not about this or any other individual route in particular, but rather more broadly what to do with all those A380s when the music stops and growth slows to more sustainable levels - which I personally have no doubt it eventually will. But that's for another discussion.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

BA actually has pretty decent coverage in India beyond BOM + DEL.

Indeed. And lest anyone forget, India is similar to China in one major regard - while demand overall to/from the U.S. is growing in general, the segment of the demand that is premium-heavy and high-yielding is generally concentrated in a few cities. I would wage that probably 75% or more of all of the premium, business-related O&D between the U.S. and India is concentrated in just four Indian metro areas - BOM, DEL, HYD and BLR. And BA flies to all four of them nonstop from its primary hub (and Lufthansa and Air France/KLM fly to most of them from their respective hubs, as well).

CaliguyNYC wrote:

I think it's just hard to attract premium US origin traffic to India in cities dominated by one airline. This is why DFW & SFO have not been the boon they should be for the ME3. A flight to India can be a big EQM earner for premium pax. I wouldn't fly anything other than Skyteam to India for that reason. Also Indians don't mind LHR because it's perceived as familiar. The notion that India is low yielding is partly true. The ME3 tend to fly their best planes to India with F class to BOM, DEL & perhaps BLR. US & Western airlines historically flew their worst planes to India or gave a horrible customer experience (see AF and the CDG disasters for Indian passport holders during IRROPS). If 9W gets its partnership with DL/AF right, I think EK will continue to feel pressure.

For sure. DFW seems like a clear example - though hardly the only one - where the relative fortunes of certain foreign carriers in catering to the U.S.-South Asia market is very strongly correlated with alliance affiliations. Qatar, for example, doesn't seem to be struggling at all (far from it) at DFW - catering in no small part to connectivity with South Asia - but then, as you rightly point out, Qatar has the massive advantage of AA's pool of FFs to draw from. The situation at SFO with Lufthansa seems to be a similar story - Lufthansa has famously long had a highly successful business between SFO and the tech centers of India over FRA, and despite new and emerging ME3 competition, Lufthansa seems to be holding its own just fine, due in no small part no doubt to its alliance with SFO's dominant airline.

kabq737 wrote:

I know they have lots and lots of A380s and 777s on order and have rapidly grown but it does appear to me that EK is feeling some pressure in multiple areas.

Yes, I wonder if we'll see EK start down gauging some of their copious/eye-popping A388 and 779 orders to 789s and/or 359s. They may not have overestimated the growth in air travel, but they may have overestimated their future share of the market, as seems to be the case for DFW. -ir

commavia wrote:

The situation at SFO with Lufthansa seems to be a similar story - Lufthansa has famously long had a highly successful business between SFO and the tech centers of India over FRA, and despite new and emerging ME3 competition, Lufthansa seems to be holding its own just fine, due in no small part no doubt to its alliance with SFO's dominant airline.

Absolutely not.

FY 2015-16 OR YTD September 2016 or MAT 2016 data will validate LH MS on the India SFO route has depleted way back beginning in 2008 when Cathay Pacific went non stop to BOM, BLR. The same year Emirates entered SFO. The last I checked LH was #3 after CX and EK.

I'm absolutely sure, FRA - SFO for LH must be doing well, just that the traffic mix has changed.

commavia wrote:

Qatar, for example, doesn't seem to be struggling at all (far from it) at DFW - catering in no small part to connectivity with South Asia - but then, as you rightly point out, Qatar has the massive advantage of AA's pool of FFs to draw from

While this maybe a major advantage what makes you assume that all the traffic ex DFW (or USA) for that matter originates in USA?

Even if we assume India origin/Point Of Sale traffic is 50% of the US - India bidirectional flow, that is a good number that do not fall in the FFP/die for miles/EQM/We love star alliance category. And that is the market the ME3 are getting.

"While this maybe a major advantage what makes you assume that all the traffic ex DFW (or USA) for that matter originates in USA?"

All traffic does not originate from India. But US origin premium traffic usually pays a higher ticket price (it's sometimes quite surprising how cheap a J class ticket from India can be when compared to originating in the US). Filling the back with cheap seats is not the game. Many in India still float between airlines for the cheapest seats or their companies do not really let them chose. On the US side, the culture is much accepting and tied to your favorite alliance (I would imagine most major Dallas companies have deals with AA).
I would say the same wrt SFO. Load factors and total pax carried do not tell the whole picture. If, and I say if since I do not know, EK is packing in India origin Y pax while LH is getting the US origin business pax plus Star FF (on both sides) willing to pay $100/200 more for miles/EQM, LH is doing better than EK in my mind. Btw I think the reason AI is doing well in EWR, ORD, SFO but not as well in JFK is because of Star affiliation allowing them to attract US origin traffic (in their case Americans of Indian origin willing to pay a premium for miles/nonstop convenience).

Goodness, you'd almost think EK was running a commercial operation and don't want to lose money if they can avoid it.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

since I do not know

That sums up quite well the problem with aviation discussions about this region here on A.net and elsewhere. The most active participants are not airline professionals or even frequent business travellers, but rather immigrant aviation enthusiasts from India whose lives seem to revolve around family reunion travel.

They rely almost exclusively on personal experiences, observations, and anecdotes to form impressions that are erroneous at best, then extrapolate these conclusions onto entire ethnic communities or nationalities.

Kudos to you on acknowledging that there actually is India POS traffic to the USA--there are others from your community here on A.net that simply ignore it altogether because they know nothing about it. That said, little of what you say is actually true in general terms, not even for your own immigrant community. They may be true for you and your personal circle of family and friends, but not of the Indian immigrant population at large.

If you actually get to know some airline industry professionals who deal specifically with India, and who are willing to share some information with you, I suspect will find some unpleasant surprises.

IAHWorldflyer wrote:

They probably looked at loads and decided that DFW doesn't currently have the premium demand to make selling that many F and J seats profitable. I think ( you can correct me) that the DFW flight mainly serves people connecting onwards to India and Pakistan. If that's true, then demand is probably more price sensitive. The IAH flight used to sell premium cabins to the energy industry, but with that in the doldrums, a 77W is all EK can fill out of IAH these days too.

Do we Know how much traffic is flowing to India/Pak and other lower fare regions? My perception would be that DFW would be able drawl a fair bit of premium traffic for EK. If DFW can't Drawl enough premium traffic id imagine only LA/NYC would be the only ones that could. I personally think EK is over hyped and the other shoe is starting to drop. I've tried to fly them to SE Asia several times From LAX and Cai a couple of times but there J fares are higher then BA and the stopover times have been awful.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

ll traffic does not originate from India. But US origin premium traffic usually pays a higher ticket price (it's sometimes quite surprising how cheap a J class ticket from India can be when compared to originating in the US). Filling the back with cheap seats is not the game. Many in India still float between airlines for the cheapest seats or their companies do not really let them chose. On the US side, the culture is much accepting and tied to your favorite alliance (I would imagine most major Dallas companies have deals with AA).

Yes, thank you I'm very well aware about that. but your assumption that USA POS has higher fares than India is incorrect. Be it in Y or J, both sides have almost the same level of fares filed in the GDS and it holds true across all carriers. So there is no inherent advantage the US POS has.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

I would say the same wrt SFO. Load factors and total pax carried do not tell the whole picture. If, and I say if since I do not know, EK is packing in India origin Y pax while LH is getting the US origin business pax plus Star FF (on both sides) willing to pay $100/200 more for miles/EQM, LH is doing better than EK in my mind. Btw I think the reason AI is doing well in EWR, ORD, SFO but not as well in JFK is because of Star affiliation allowing them to attract US origin traffic (in their case Americans of Indian origin willing to pay a premium for miles/nonstop convenience).

This too is incorrect. The market share in business class is in the same order of the total cabin with CX and EK dominating and there is absolutely no twisted way that can prove that LH is the dominant force on the India - SFO market.

coolian2 wrote:

Goodness, you'd almost think EK was running a commercial operation and don't want to lose money if they can avoid it.

Yes they do and they have (political) pressure to do so, even many do not believe that. They might have more flexibility in maintaining non profitable routes, as long the large profit numbers are OK, but even LH Group or other airlines stick to a certain degree on non-profitable routes due to different strategic reasons (hurting competitors, feeding traffic,...).

My guess for DFW is, that indeed the route was not profitable (I don't think cargo is a factor on this route) and they will use the A380s on routes which might be more promising.