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LAX772LR
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Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:19 pm

Granted, it's based more on perception than careful survey of data.... but it seems that PAR is falling way behind LON and FRA in terms of gaining new markets on the TATL over the last few years. Especially by the home carrier.

Especially to the north Atlantic. It seems like years, if not decades, since AF has launched an all-new US destination that had previously been unserved to Paris. DL has helped though, in launching SLC and relaunching RDU, also in sustaining the likes of PIT, PHL, and EWR during times when AF might've struggled more.

Contrast to LON, where BA has been adding all-new LHR markets like AUS and SJC, growing extant markets like SAN and TPA, and reinstating routes like LGW-JFK. DL's been in the hunt too, launching the likes of PDX.

Same for FRA, where LH's Jump is opening new markets like TPA, as is Condor by launching MSY and SAN.

Heck, even ZRH has/is opening new routes, like TPA and SAN.

........yet, PAR remains strangely quiet, especially by the home carrier. Why is that?
Is it AF's seemingly precarious financial situation? Softening in the French market? After-effect of the terrorist attacks?

Anyone?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
qcpilotxf
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:54 pm

Paris is a different market than the rest of thoes place. The French dont really travel to the US like the British and the Germans. When i was working in TPA there was always an influx of europeans, but they were normally english or german.

Just my Observation over the years of working in a sun destination.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:58 pm

There are several factors affecting France right now. Amongst others, a very fragile political situation (which usually derives into endless strikes), a week economy, many passengers trying to avoid PAR due to constant terrorist alert and, not least, AF being in one of its lowest points.
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LGAviation
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Thu Jun 23, 2016 7:11 pm

I think at least in terms of FRA being a bigger player in TATL this is a rather one-sided view. If you're looking at US airport statistics, CDG will lead FRA at many major airports and the amount of destinations offered by U.S. carriers in Paris by far exceeds that at FRA. You can't really compare those niche twice a week seasonal DE routes with the service that CDG gets. Also, Norwegian is building a TATL operation at ORY
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LAX772LR
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:22 pm

LGAviation wrote:
I think at least in terms of FRA being a bigger player in TATL this is a rather one-sided view. If you're looking at US airport statistics, CDG will lead FRA at many major airports and the amount of destinations offered by U.S. carriers in Paris by far exceeds that at FRA.

I'm aware that PAR started from a higher vantage than FRA, but as my OP clearly states, I'm speaking in terms of starting/developing new markets thereto.


LGAviation wrote:
You can't really compare those niche twice a week seasonal DE routes with the service that CDG gets.

Says who? A flight is a flight, and a new destination is a new destination.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
IPFreely
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:17 pm

For reasons stated above, O/D traffic between Paris and NA is limited:
1. French don't travel to NA in big numbers compared to other European people.
2. The French economy sucks.
3. North Americans are travelling less to France because of both the French economy and the threat of terrorism.

Also, Paris is getting little connecting traffic between NA and the rest of Europe for several reasons.
1. Air France is the dominant carrier and it is a preferred carrier by very few people, even in France.
2. Travellers never know when the worthless AF employees will decide they are disgruntled and stop working.
3. Even if AF employees are ambitious enough to work, travellers never know when other French workers like ATC, airport employees, railway employees, etc., will decide they are disgruntled and stop working.

With travel to Paris declining and LHR, AMS, FRA, and even MUC being much better connecting airports in Europe, Paris is falling behind in the TATL war. And with no change in sight, the decline of Paris will continue.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:54 pm

Most of AFKL's growth has been focused on KL and HV in recent years, since AF is losing money. Not surprising to see AF expanding very little, especially to longhaul markets.
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:53 am

I don't see any point in having these regular threads on either France or AF unless there is some excitement to do some French-bashing for fun. Now that UK has voted for Brexit, should they deserve UK bashing as well ? I already know the answer. A big NO.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:58 pm

IPFreely wrote:
Also, Paris is getting little connecting traffic between NA and the rest of Europe for several reasons.


What a silly, uninformed statement. You clearly have no idea how many people fly AF or DL metal across the pond, only to connect at CDG to other destinations in France, Europe, Africa and beyond.
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:40 pm

Hello
Today, 65 departures from PAR for Na (5 ORY, 60 CDG) against 51 from FRA, where is Paris "FAR behind"? Less destinations more flights, that's all.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:40 pm

Paris is still the 2nd largest European destination for Americans (after London), but IIRC it's a market that is very seasonal and leisure oriented. Maybe the reason they aren't adding is because Paris is already well served? The AF/KL-DL TATL alliance is pretty strong.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:50 pm

falling behind? Paris is extremely well served to NA. Its the second largest destination so many routes already exist. The list of flights to NA is very impressive and almost all or daily more multiple a day. Skyteam just has the market on lock down not as easy to move into as other cities. I think we will see Norwegian make some dents their low prices they can compete with anyone
 
Sooner787
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:28 pm

There have been so many strikes in French aviation that past few years, we routinely avoid
routing clients thru France unless that is their final destination. Just not worth risking
another wildcat strike that then costs us time and money re-booking our clients.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:35 pm

airbazar wrote:
Paris is still the 2nd largest European destination for Americans (after London), but IIRC it's a market that is very seasonal and leisure oriented.

Or put another way, LON has extraordinarily high levels of TATL premium and business traffic, yet PAR is second and ahead of FRA which is another business (if not premium) heavy city so PAR isn't doing so bad.
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:15 pm

I think that there hasn't been much growth at CDG/ORY TATL-wise because many markets are over saturated already. For example, for this summer, fares to Paris from Toronto are routinely $300-$400 less than other European destinations such as FRA, LHR,LGW,AMS etc. From YYZ we have AF 1 daily, AC 2 daily and TS 1 daily with plenty of other connections.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:47 pm

IPFreely wrote:
For reasons stated above, O/D traffic between Paris and NA is limited:
1. French don't travel to NA in big numbers compared to other European people.
2. The French economy sucks.
3. North Americans are travelling less to France because of both the French economy and the threat of terrorism.

Also, Paris is getting little connecting traffic between NA and the rest of Europe for several reasons.
1. Air France is the dominant carrier and it is a preferred carrier by very few people, even in France.
2. Travellers never know when the worthless AF employees will decide they are disgruntled and stop working.
3. Even if AF employees are ambitious enough to work, travellers never know when other French workers like ATC, airport employees, railway employees, etc., will decide they are disgruntled and stop working.

With travel to Paris declining and LHR, AMS, FRA, and even MUC being much better connecting airports in Europe, Paris is falling behind in the TATL war. And with no change in sight, the decline of Paris will continue.


I don't know where you get your information from to support your claims, but I see here on a ADP document that North America traffic was up 6.8% in 2015 (9.9% of all traffic) and even +3.4% in December 2015 following the terrible shootings in November. It doesn't look like a decline to me as these figures are "a new record in passenger numbers for the two Paris airports".
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ro1960
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:43 pm

Just as a reference here are the current 18 USA destinations I could compile. There might be some errors with the airlines :

ATL AF/DL
BOS AF/DL/AA
CVG AF/DL
DFW AA
DTW AF/DL
EWR UA/EC/AF/AA/EC/DL
IAD AF/UA
IAH AF/DL/AA
JFK AF/AA/DL/SE
LAX AF/AA
MIA AA/AF
MSP AF/DL
ORD AA/UA/AF
PHL AA/DL
PIT DL
RDU AF/DL
SEA AF/DL
SFO AF/AA/UA/SE
SLC DL
Last edited by ro1960 on Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:12 pm

caravellebleue wrote:
where is Paris "FAR behind"? Less destinations more flights, that's all.
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
falling behind? Paris is extremely well served to NA.

It might help if either of you had actually READ the question being asked, before responding in a defensive manner. :roll:



.....once again:
LAX772LR wrote:
it seems that PAR is falling way behind LON and FRA in terms of gaining new markets on the TATL over the last few years.

Sure PAR already has a lot of destinations and traffic, but so do LON (more in every regard) and FRA (not far behind); yet they're both expanding their destinations over the pond, particularly in terms of all-new never-before-operated routes, whereas PAR appears comparatively static. Hence the question.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:05 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Granted, it's based more on perception than careful survey of data.... but it seems that PAR is falling way behind LON and FRA in terms of gaining new markets on the TATL over the last few years. Especially by the home carrier.
Anyone?


I believe it's indeed your perception... London is no comparison and AMS is growing fast, but regarding PAR vs FRA:

PAR North TATL traffic is up 2.5% year-to-date (-0.5% in May)
FRA North TATL traffic is up 0.9% year-to-date (-4.6% in May)
... which means that even with the impact of the November attacks, it's rather FRA that is losing ground...

I bet the difference will only be stronger during peak season as Paris traffic is a bit more seasonal, and this Summer will be by far the biggest in overall capacity we've had TATL-wise:

AF might be pretty steady capacity-wise (don't forget the recent successful YVR launch, it' not a natural market for us French), yet
DL launched RDU and will be 13 daily almost everyday (RDU is not all-new but it's coming back to CDG first)
AA & UA capacity is up vs last year with many 777s back iso 763s (4 daily UA 777s had not been seen in CDG since pre-9/11 I believe)
AC capacity up as well, TS up to 6 daily
XLF launching LAX
plus DY launching JFK, LAX and FLL (that's all new) on 29JUL.

Not overwhelming but could be much worse after the harsh 2015 we've had.
Also don't forget LH strikes are not rare anymore; AF improved product is proving relatively successful and CDG is also improving slowly. As for new links I bet PDX is a good candidate. ;)
It is also to be noted that North TATL is not even the biggest part of the long-haul cake here in PAR in comparison to what it is in LON,FRA,AMS... we have North TATL=Asia=Africa in traffic volume. Not the only priority.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:43 pm

Total capacity was not being asked about nor is it being argued against.
Dearth of new destinations was the question.

Yes, I'm aware of the stasis in seat count and aggregate capacity; it was more a question of why is PAR seemingly bucking the trend of fragmentation (vis-a-vis LON/FRA) for that capacity.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:46 pm

Paris is a strong, stable market in itself. As such there isn't much organic growth to be had. Air France has also had a turbulent few years with profit/loss and industrial relations so maybe it's just a case of AF looking after their bread and butter routes than taking gambles.

It's a strong market compared to somewhere like FRA as Paris is one of the top tourist destinations globally, if not the number one. AF has to be careful not to damage that in any way. They have strong US links with Delta so it's a fortress operation just like LHR. Their strong Canada presence is also a mature operation.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:56 pm

LAX772LR wrote:

Especially to the north Atlantic. It seems like years, if not decades, since AF has launched an all-new US destination that had previously been unserved to Paris.


It's not the US but AF started a new TATL route to YVR last year, currently 5 x week 772 CDG-YVR in summer, 3 x week winter.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:55 pm

IPFreely wrote:
For reasons stated above, O/D traffic between Paris and NA is limited:


That's the problem with forums like this one, people can drool their FOX or Daily Mail-educated sterotypes and present them as facts. Of course without having checked the facts. Let's therefore do a fact check:

IPFreely wrote:
1. French don't travel to NA in big numbers compared to other European people.


Wrong. US tourists by country of origin (mentioning only European countries):

3. United Kingdom 4.6M
5. Germany 2.4M
8. France 2M
So France and Germany are very close. Relative to population size there is even a higher proportion of the French that travel to the US than of Germans. So, the French travel to the US like other Europeans.

IPFreely wrote:
2. The French economy sucks.


Meaningless, hence untrue as well: what does "suck" mean? Low growth rates. True. But that doesn't seem to slow growth of the Paris-USA market, as other posters have shown that Frankfurt-USA grows much less despite Germany's better growth.

IPFreely wrote:
3. North Americans are travelling less to France because of both the French economy and the threat of terrorism.


Wrong. The growth rate of North American tourists to France has slowed down, but overall numbers have gone up by 1.7%.

IPFreely wrote:
1. Air France is the dominant carrier and it is a preferred carrier by very few people, even in France.


So wrong it hurts. Air France is BY FAR the market leader in France: for departures from France, AF without KL has more than four times as many passengers as the next most popular airline, Easyjet.

IPFreely wrote:
2. Travellers never know when the worthless AF employees will decide they are disgruntled and stop working.


If they don't know it's their own fault. Strikes are announced several weeks ahead of time and because of a law that obliges each staff to declare 48 hours before whether he/she will not come to work the airline can tell with some degree of precision which flights will be cancelled. So the information exists and is very well published, if people don't know it's because they are sleepy or naive or dumb or whatever.

IPFreely wrote:
3. Even if AF employees are ambitious enough to work, travellers never know when other French workers like ATC, airport employees, railway employees, etc., will decide they are disgruntled and stop working.


See previous answer.

IPFreely wrote:
With travel to Paris declining and LHR, AMS, FRA, and even MUC being much better connecting airports in Europe,


What are "better connecting airports"? If you look at connections from European airlines hubs,

(number of nonstop connections per airport by hub carrier, European cities only)
1. Istanbul - 242
2. Frankfurt - 169
3. Paris CDG - 146
4. Barcelona - 142
5. London LHR - 135
6. Amsterdam - 130
7. London STN - 130
8. Munich - 126

If you talk about a better experience for connecting passengers, MUC, BCN and AMS are more pleasant. But since all AF and partner airline flights operate from 2E and 2F and things have dramatically improved since some years ago when it was a shambles. FRA is too large, and LHR is a joke with even BA split between T5 and T3 and the need to go through security even for pax connecting from a European departure point.


Softaero wrote:
Most of AFKL's growth has been focused on KL and HV in recent years, since AF is losing money.


How do you know that? Can you please quote profitability numbers for each AF and KL so we can compare?

Sooner787 wrote:
There have been so many strikes in French aviation that past few years, we routinely avoid
routing clients thru France unless that is their final destination. Just not worth risking
another wildcat strike that then costs us time and money re-booking our clients.


If I was one of your clients and I read a statement like this in public I'd immediately withdraw my business from you because you are incompetent and acting based on prejudice instead of facts . There have been two strikes in French aviation in the past two years. If instead you had routed me through Lufthansa there would have been more strikes. If you had routed me through BA I would have spent hours waiting in security for connections that do not make me go through security in Paris. If you had routed me through KLM I would have wasted hours since the new setup of centralized security checkpoints. If you had routed me with one of the US carriers I would have had to suffer their primitive service, which would have been acceptable during those two strikes but not otherwise. Scary to know that you make money advising your clients so badly.

LAX772LR wrote:
Dearth of new destinations was the question.


The title said "PARIS FALLING FAR BEHIND IN TATL WARS?". Not sure exactly what TATL wars are, but since your question looks at how Paris compares to other hubs in terms of traffic development across the NA you get all facets of that question:

Total capacity: large, second only to LHR
Capacity growth: very healthy, more than FRA
Number of destinations served: many, second only to LHR
Number of new destinations added: less than LHR or FRA

If you were only interested in that last point, why didn't you write that in the thread title?
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:38 am

mozart wrote:
If you were only interested in that last point, why didn't you write that in the thread title?

Because I figured you'd have enough common sense to read what was actually presented in the post, instead of getting hung up of a limited character title.

Apparently, I was too optimistic. :roll:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mozart
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:26 am

LAX772LR wrote:
mozart wrote:
If you were only interested in that last point, why didn't you write that in the thread title?

Because I figured you'd have enough common sense to read what was actually presented in the post, instead of getting hung up of a limited character title.

Apparently, I was too optimistic. :roll:


I think we are all aware that a single title is almost always a reduction of what is being asked, and it is normal to provide some more colour in the OP. So no problem with that.

But to choose a thread title that apparently does NOT address what you're interested in is (i) lacking in ability to summarize (ii) an invitation for people to ALSO - in addition to the points that you make in the OP - comment on what is in the title.

If you were interested why there are less new route openings to new cities in North America, then a single line title could have been "Why less new North American cities from Paris than LHR/FRA?"

To get mad at people because they give richer answers than you were hoping for based in the thread title isn't called for. A title sets the topic of the discussion, that is what a title is for. Common sense as well. ;)
 
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ro1960
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:07 am

I agree. Clarity is often easier than one thinks.

And so that everyone agrees on the "decline" of PAR, have a look at the official figures here:

ADP Traffic
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LAX772LR
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:16 pm

mozart wrote:
If you were interested why there are less new route openings to new cities in North America, then a single line title could have been "Why less new North American cities from Paris than LHR/FRA?")

Sure, just figured mine would be more interesting.

But like I said, I thoroughly apologize for giving you enough credit to believe you'd actually read the post and figure it out. Mea culpa. :roll:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:28 pm

mozart wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
For reasons stated above, O/D traffic between Paris and NA is limited:


That's the problem with forums like this one, people can drool their FOX or Daily Mail-educated sterotypes and present them as facts. Of course without having checked the facts. Let's therefore do a fact check:

IPFreely wrote:
1. French don't travel to NA in big numbers compared to other European people.


Wrong. US tourists by country of origin (mentioning only European countries):

3. United Kingdom 4.6M
5. Germany 2.4M
8. France 2M
So France and Germany are very close. Relative to population size there is even a higher proportion of the French that travel to the US than of Germans. So, the French travel to the US like other Europeans.

IPFreely wrote:
2. The French economy sucks.


Meaningless, hence untrue as well: what does "suck" mean? Low growth rates. True. But that doesn't seem to slow growth of the Paris-USA market, as other posters have shown that Frankfurt-USA grows much less despite Germany's better growth.

IPFreely wrote:
3. North Americans are travelling less to France because of both the French economy and the threat of terrorism.


Wrong. The growth rate of North American tourists to France has slowed down, but overall numbers have gone up by 1.7%.

IPFreely wrote:
1. Air France is the dominant carrier and it is a preferred carrier by very few people, even in France.


So wrong it hurts. Air France is BY FAR the market leader in France: for departures from France, AF without KL has more than four times as many passengers as the next most popular airline, Easyjet.

IPFreely wrote:
2. Travellers never know when the worthless AF employees will decide they are disgruntled and stop working.


If they don't know it's their own fault. Strikes are announced several weeks ahead of time and because of a law that obliges each staff to declare 48 hours before whether he/she will not come to work the airline can tell with some degree of precision which flights will be cancelled. So the information exists and is very well published, if people don't know it's because they are sleepy or naive or dumb or whatever.

IPFreely wrote:
3. Even if AF employees are ambitious enough to work, travellers never know when other French workers like ATC, airport employees, railway employees, etc., will decide they are disgruntled and stop working.


See previous answer.

IPFreely wrote:
With travel to Paris declining and LHR, AMS, FRA, and even MUC being much better connecting airports in Europe,


What are "better connecting airports"? If you look at connections from European airlines hubs,

(number of nonstop connections per airport by hub carrier, European cities only)
1. Istanbul - 242
2. Frankfurt - 169
3. Paris CDG - 146
4. Barcelona - 142
5. London LHR - 135
6. Amsterdam - 130
7. London STN - 130
8. Munich - 126

If you talk about a better experience for connecting passengers, MUC, BCN and AMS are more pleasant. But since all AF and partner airline flights operate from 2E and 2F and things have dramatically improved since some years ago when it was a shambles. FRA is too large, and LHR is a joke with even BA split between T5 and T3 and the need to go through security even for pax connecting from a European departure point.



Exactly! Was going to write something along the same lines, but you did it perfectly! Stereotypes live long. And when stereotypes become facts, one can pretty much spin his bias in zillions of ways.
 
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Re: Paris falling far behind in TATL wars?

Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:59 am

mozart - 1
LAX772LR - O

And IPFreely not professional enough to play.... :lol:

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