LH748 wrote:

Trump manages to destabilize core US industries, something that neither China nor Russia (Soviet Union included) ever achieved. All Chinese airlines are controlled by the Chinese government there's even more than just economic factors that will drive them away from buying Boeing.

What industry has Trump destabilized?

Bobloblaw wrote:

LH748 wrote:

Trump manages to destabilize core US industries, something that neither China nor Russia (Soviet Union included) ever achieved. All Chinese airlines are controlled by the Chinese government there's even more than just economic factors that will drive them away from buying Boeing.

What industry has Trump destabilized?

Yes, waiting to hear which industry Trump has destabilized.

StTim wrote:

You know there is something odd about trade figures. In theory if you summed up the trade figures for all the countries in the world it should sum to zero - but it doesn't and never has. The world has an innate trade deficit. For that I am blaming those protectionist martians!

The reason for this are multiple.

1. Many importing companies try to commit import tax and sales tax fraud by letting the exporting companies provide an undervalued invoice or change the invoice themselves.
Customs agencies at the importing end then can decide to either follow the values indicated on the invoice or not. Usually they will not, and estimate values objectively.
The renewed value is not often transmitted to the exporting country for lack of a unified system.

2. Small shipments are never registered on the exporting end, but are very often on the importing end for collecting customs duties.

3. Shipping costs are often not registered on the exporting end but are on the importing end.

4. Administration accuracy. Many papers get lost either by accident or on purpose.


It's difficult to estimate exports correctly, the import values can however be ballpark accurate.




I hope for Airbus that they move quickly to secure a major A330neo order and perhaps also an A380 order, who knows? Their sales team is sluggish and is booking more cancellations than orders.
With the B777X out of the woods, Boeing is doing fine. I don't see China cancelling all MAX orders, there are no other western-made narrowbodies available for delivery in the next 5 years.
The C919 is seeing delay after delay and probably won't enter service in significant enough numbers in the coming 5 years.
China didn't buy a single SSJ100 so I don't see them buying many MC-21's either.

One of the most disgusting this is how much food come from China. You should never eat any of it.

Elementalism wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

It would be far cheaper for the US gov to use the proceeds of taxed Chinese goods to subsidize Boeing and other industries impacted by reduced Chinese imports.

WTO would slap them for illegal subsidies.

But yet the WTO remains silent on Airbus walking away from their A380 loans.

Bobloblaw wrote:

LH748 wrote:

Trump manages to destabilize core US industries, something that neither China nor Russia (Soviet Union included) ever achieved. All Chinese airlines are controlled by the Chinese government there's even more than just economic factors that will drive them away from buying Boeing.

What industry has Trump destabilized?

The unemployment industry lol

LH748 wrote:

All Chinese airlines are controlled by the Chinese government there's even more than just economic factors that will drive them away from buying Boeing.

That's not an accurate statement as presented. The PRC government does not have the same influence over private carriers as they do the CAAC3.

Unless you're simply referring to regulation; but then how would that be any different than any airline in any country?

impilot wrote:

Bobloblaw wrote:

LH748 wrote:

Trump manages to destabilize core US industries, something that neither China nor Russia (Soviet Union included) ever achieved. All Chinese airlines are controlled by the Chinese government there's even more than just economic factors that will drive them away from buying Boeing.

What industry has Trump destabilized?

The unemployment industry lol

Bravo Sir, bravo.

B737Captain1980 wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

The US citizens paying Boeing for not delivering planes to China because of Trump's policies. Makes sense I guess.

Or how about addressing a MASSIVE trade deficit? But then, if you don't live in the US, why would you care?

The trade deficit was $350B in Chinas favor in 2017. Does the rest of the world think we Americans are going to allow this to continue? How do you think the Chinese are able to snap up real estate and other luxury goods in cash in other parts of the world? Did they suddenly find a rainbow with a pot of gold under it? They have become accustomed to just selling goods to us and not buying anything in return. Its called TRADE. I buy something from you, you buy something back of relatively equal value.

What's the problem with this? If I buy 100 million ping pong balls and you buy one 737 (let's assume the values are equal), we've just done trade. There is nothing in the economic idea of trade that says it has to be equal. Out of place for this forum, but take a look at property values in NYC. They're skyrocketing because a lot of Chinese businesspeople are snapping this stuff up like candy and competing with themselves. They're not just investing in the world as a whole, there is investment back in the US, but that doesn't seem to fit the political narrative (for either side it seems)

StTim wrote:

You know there is something odd about trade figures. In theory if you summed up the trade figures for all the countries in the world it should sum to zero - but it doesn't and never has. The world has an innate trade deficit. For that I am blaming those protectionist martians!

Global trade is not a zero-sum game. It certainly sounds like you're joking, but far too many on this thread are taking this as a fact (and indeed the entirety of the US political system, regardless of party).

AirFiero wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

It would be far cheaper for the US gov to use the proceeds of taxed Chinese goods to subsidize Boeing and other industries impacted by reduced Chinese imports.

The US citizens paying Boeing for not delivering planes to China because of Trump's policies. Makes sense I guess.

Or how about addressing a MASSIVE trade deficit? But then, if you don't live in the US, why would you care?

See above about zero-sum games. Everyone loses if you respond to a trade deficit with a tariff, the math backs that up in terms of both utility and hard cash that is used to value both sides' GDPs. Case in point, someone brought up Smoot-Hawley upthread and its impact on the Great Depression. While it's not the primary cause, it certainly made stopping the drop and recovering from it a bit harder.

Meanwhile, if tariffs are supposed to reduce your imports, where is the US government supposed to get the tax revenue to subsidize Boeing and anyone else affected? The US taxpayer?

Varsity1 wrote:

The world holds the USA at a double standard. They expect the US to play fair and equitable, while unilaterally accepting smaller countries acting in their self-interest as normal and rational behavior.

The world got used to milking USA, asking for fairness is considered a sin.

Trump's techniques may be unorthodox and outright ugly but the USA has run out of carrots.

Not really sure of what the President is doing but he either has an agenda or he's trying to beat the snot out of the Chinese for some perceived slight against him.
Can't really tell. What I am sure is the Chinese do not play Ball with many other rules than to WIN. and? It's up to US whether to let them .play their game? Or? Close the Door on them altogether! The Companies that want the MFG there? Should do so at their OWN Risk.. Nobody forced you there? So if they close the door? That's the chance you TOOK!!

The Chinese are criminals at heart. Boeing ships a part over for a 787 simulator and China holds it in Customs for a month or more while the Chinese reverse engineer the part. Everyone knows what's going on, but that is just part of the price for doing business with these scoundrels. We would be better off without them.

On a similar note, India-US trade is booming. I suspect the movement of manufacturing will help DL's new service to India.

Moving beyond the racism and dick jerking in this thread to a more fundamental question: if the US-China trade relationship was so bad for so long (ie so “against” US interests), why have corporate elites actively reproduced this relationship? I have a slight suspicion that trade balances aren’t everything...

The key to winning debates when you can’t seem to deal in facts is to start using the word “racism” even if none is present. Works like a charm (well it doesn't, but it’s a cute tactic that keeps being repeated by many with TDS).

GearShaft5 wrote:

Boeing is a US-government subsidized company, both directly and indirectly - and that's apart from it also being integral to the military industrial complex. It's galling to witness the US righteously accuse other countries of subsidizing their industries and then imposing either punitive sanctions or tariffs.

It was China that took the lead by their fleet-wide grounding of the 737-8MAX and refusal to allow overflying rights to any airline flying them. They stopped Boeing's easy way out of "pilot error" against third world or developing countries like Ethiopia (Ethiopian Airlines) and Indonesia (Lion Air). Further, Boeing it still reeling from the incremental leaks from whistleblowers and reporting in the Wall Street Journal concerning the manufacture, design and MCAS on that aircraft.

It's not realized in the West that China check-mated both Boeing and the FAA as a result of its robust stance on the 737.8MAX. Not only did they defend Ethiopia and Indonesia against Boeing, but they destroyed the credibility of the FAA that was still pretending that the aircraft was good to go - before the FAA finally caved in and grounded US planes.

China has no intention of permanent dependency on Boeing or Airbus since both companies are susceptible to political pressure (witness both companies now withdrawing their aircraft sales to Iran after briefly resuming them 2 years ago). Don't forget that China has begun to manufacture its own civil aircraft and has access to Russia's long history of aircraft design by virtue of the 2 countries being founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and now, even closer bi-lateral cooperation.

Boeing is in a very defensive position in the light of both the 737-8MAX and emerging revelations of the construction of the 787. If I'm not mistaken, both aircraft types are in Chinese fleets. I suspect China will put Boeing under further pressure and they are correct to do so.

I live in China. I am not Chinese.

Good Post. I live in the U.S. and I am American, but I manufacture in China and the tariffs have hurt my business a bit. Guess what? It is the price I have to pay to send China a message. China wants everything THEIR way and is not even willing to accept a negotiation. It is their way or the highway. It is something the U.S. prior governments should have put a stop to years ago. We finally have a President willing to stop this non taxing on Chinese imports, that should have existed 50 years ago. It's amazing how many people just do not understand how China taxes everything from the U.S. going into China, but when the role is reversed, the Americans are the bad guys.

As for Europeans, it is none of their business. They will sit back and watch this fight, grab popcorn and have a good time (as they should), but at the same time, they should not enjoy the popcorn too long. They have enough of their own problems to worry about.

Elementalism wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

It would be far cheaper for the US gov to use the proceeds of taxed Chinese goods to subsidize Boeing and other industries impacted by reduced Chinese imports.

WTO would slap them for illegal subsidies.

Ask China about how seriously folks take the WTO and it's rulings.

China is having to kill off their pigs and they are jacking up the cost of food for their peeps, the US has the better position here. Our southern border situarion shows that lots of our 'stuff' needs to be sourced to the south instead of Asia.

Bringing it to aviation, with the MAX having the problems it is (CAAC was the first civil aviation authority to order the MAX 8 grounded in what would become a worldwide grounding), I could honestly see CAAC shifting orders for the major state-owned carriers (CA, CZ, and MU - and their subsidiaries) to Airbus for all narrow-bodies, and imposing tariffs that would freeze out future Boeing narrow-body orders for private Chinese airlines, including in the HKSAR (I still see future wide-body Boeing orders because Airbus doesn't make anything comparable in the wide-body segments).

As for the soybean issue, what is happening is that US crop harvests are going to waste.

That said, any potential deal is dead on arrival when Congress has to consider it; it will die there, and Xi Jinping knows that.

axiom wrote:

Moving beyond the racism and dick jerking in this thread to a more fundamental question: if the US-China trade relationship was so bad for so long (ie so “against” US interests), why have corporate elites actively reproduced this relationship? I have a slight suspicion that trade balances aren’t everything...

Chinese market. Seriously, at the end of the day who's the people opening up factories in PRC? Yep, mainly foreign corporations (Not just US, but also European, Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese), at least in the beginning before Chinese get the know-how (Mainly by copying, but that's another story). It's foreign corporation wanting to take advantage of the massive cheap labors available, a huge market. But hey, it's the Chinese fault somehow that foreign corporations love to earn more money.

crownvic wrote:

Good Post. I live in the U.S. and I am American, but I manufacture in China and the tariffs have hurt my business a bit. Guess what? It is the price I have to pay to send China a message. China wants everything THEIR way and is not even willing to accept a negotiation. It is their way or the highway. It is something the U.S. prior governments should have put a stop to years ago. We finally have a President willing to stop this non taxing on Chinese imports, that should have existed 50 years ago. It's amazing how many people just do not understand how China taxes everything from the U.S. going into China, but when the role is reversed, the Americans are the bad guys.

As for Europeans, it is none of their business. They will sit back and watch this fight, grab popcorn and have a good time (as they should), but at the same time, they should not enjoy the popcorn too long. They have enough of their own problems to worry about.

There's no problem with US taxing stuff - they certainly can. The ultimate question is, does it really benefit your regular Americans? The answer is a no.

Bobloblaw wrote:

What industry has Trump destabilized?

Farming aka another 15B down the drain from MY pocket? (But hey, that's not Socialism). Retail is next in line. Aviation and automotive will be disrupted also. All to save what? 10 jobs at a steel mill (via some magical tax breaks, of course).

For the topic - Boeing can technically survive without the Chinese market. It doesn't help their bottom line, though.

I don’t know how much the automotive industry imports parts from China, Mexico yes. I have no sympathy for Wal-Mart and target which source so much of their inventory from China.

You realize the tariffs are in place because China went back of the agree met at the last second. Trade with China has cost the USA 3.4 million jobs. That’s disruptive.

Exporting commodities and importing manufactured goods is what third world countries do.

BravoOne wrote:

The Chinese are criminals at heart. Boeing ships a part over for a 787 simulator and China holds it in Customs for a month or more while the Chinese reverse engineer the part. Everyone knows what's going on, but that is just part of the price for doing business with these scoundrels. We would be better off without them.

US-China trade should be driven to ZERO.

Bobloblaw wrote:

kelvin933 wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

It would be far cheaper for the US gov to use the proceeds of taxed Chinese goods to subsidize Boeing and other industries impacted by reduced Chinese imports.

The Smoot-Hawley supporters strike again

A myth that refuses to die is that smoot-hawley caused the Great Depression. It was caused by a world wide collapse in the money supply

The smoot-hawley act worsened an already terrible situation.

Elementalism wrote:

Bobloblaw wrote:

kelvin933 wrote:

The Smoot-Hawley supporters strike again

A myth that refuses to die is that smoot-hawley caused the Great Depression. It was caused by a world wide collapse in the money supply

The smoot-hawley act worsened an already terrible situation.

US exports and imports made up 7% of US GNP in 1930, by 1933, US gnp has contraced by 33%. Not all imports were hit by smoot hawley tariffs but non tariffed imports fell just as much as tariffed imports.

Bobloblaw wrote:

Elementalism wrote:

Bobloblaw wrote:

A myth that refuses to die is that smoot-hawley caused the Great Depression. It was caused by a world wide collapse in the money supply

The smoot-hawley act worsened an already terrible situation.

US exports and imports made up 7% of US GNP in 1930, by 1933, US gnp has contraced by 33%. Not all imports were hit by smoot hawley tariffs but non tariffed imports fell just as much as tariffed imports.

The majority of economists agree the smoot-hawley act contributed to the great depression. Money supply was the biggest issue. But effectively reducing world trade by 1/3rd made the situation worse. It also failed to create jobs it promised.

The two main issues are China stealing/not respecting intellectual property and not giving US industries the same the access to the Chinese market that they get in the US market. It isn't about trying to get cheap plastic crap manufactured in the US instead of China.

China benefits far more from trade with the US than vice versa. The only card the US holds in the negotiation is tariffs. Without showing the US is serious about imposing them, China has no reason to want a change to the status quo.

Dutchy wrote:

Elementalism wrote:

Elections have consequences

Policies have consequences.....

Exactly and how do you get a Trade imbalance down? Hollow threats. I don't care what teams in charge at the white house Trade imbalance is a issue that has some long term benefits and the US being on a 4 or 8 year plan, administrations don't want to tackle it. I applaud them for doing just that...

NZ321 wrote:

This is not good news folks, for Boeing or for anybody. It is going to complicate things immeasurably. Just think of the complications if this goes ahead. It is going to be much more difficult doing business for Aviation suppliers. I do hope this is sorted out before the effects start to be felt. For all involved. We take two steps forward and then one backwards and ouch! It's not going to be an easy ride.

So what do you suggest the US does to address the ever growing trade imbalance with China?

oOfredOo wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

ssteve wrote:

While the tech-transfer requirements should absolutely be attacked, tariffs to go after a trade deficit are assinine.

Every other country in the world does tariffs. Why must the United States NOT levy tariffs, especially given such a huge trade deficit?

The trade deficit is skewed because of the role of the Dollar as fiat currency around the world. Then there is a huge amount of financial services provided by the USA that actually benefit the U.S.

Looking at the deficit only is shortsighted.

Not looking at the deficit is shortsighted also. That appears to be the norm for this issue. Granted I get its a big complicated issue.

grbauc wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Elementalism wrote:

Elections have consequences

Policies have consequences.....

Exactly and how do you get a Trade imbalance down? Hollow threats. I don't care what teams in charge at the white house Trade imbalance is a issue that has some long term benefits and the US being on a 4 or 8 year plan, administrations don't want to tackle it. I applaud them for doing just that...

Trump may be unlikable and has plenty of flaws but he is the only recent President that campaigned saying that he would address issues that no other President wanted to touch and then followed through with what he promised to do.

AirFiero wrote:

NZ321 wrote:

This is not good news folks, for Boeing or for anybody. It is going to complicate things immeasurably. Just think of the complications if this goes ahead. It is going to be much more difficult doing business for Aviation suppliers. I do hope this is sorted out before the effects start to be felt. For all involved. We take two steps forward and then one backwards and ouch! It's not going to be an easy ride.

If you look at the history of the trade negotiations, these seemingly bad snags come and go. It is in neither countries best interests to have an unresolved trade issue. The bluster on both sides is nothing but a part of the negotiation process. Give it time.

The difference is that one leader/government is there for 5 more years at most, the other is there for "life".

planecane wrote:

grbauc wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Policies have consequences.....

Exactly and how do you get a Trade imbalance down? Hollow threats. I don't care what teams in charge at the white house Trade imbalance is a issue that has some long term benefits and the US being on a 4 or 8 year plan, administrations don't want to tackle it. I applaud them for doing just that...

Trump may be unlikable and has plenty of flaws but he is the only recent President that campaigned saying that he would address issues that no other President wanted to touch and then followed through with what he promised to do.

Trump is breaking up the alliances that was formed during and after WW2.
Most of the rest of the world not included in these alliances has been dictatorships.

axiom wrote:

Moving beyond the racism and dick jerking in this thread to a more fundamental question: if the US-China trade relationship was so bad for so long (ie so “against” US interests), why have corporate elites actively reproduced this relationship? I have a slight suspicion that trade balances aren’t everything...

Corporate elites manage to be fine even after having crashed the world economy, so they're not exactly the ones to look at to know if something is good or not.

The crux of the problem is that China shouldn't have been accepted to the WTO for at least a decade more, then was the time to talk about opening their market.

Instead US politicians, financed by US companies, decided China should be fast tracked into the WTO.

Aesma wrote:

axiom wrote:

Moving beyond the racism and dick jerking in this thread to a more fundamental question: if the US-China trade relationship was so bad for so long (ie so “against” US interests), why have corporate elites actively reproduced this relationship? I have a slight suspicion that trade balances aren’t everything...

Corporate elites manage to be fine even after having crashed the world economy, so they're not exactly the ones to look at to know if something is good or not.

The crux of the problem is that China shouldn't have been accepted to the WTO for at least a decade more, then was the time to talk about opening their market.

Instead US politicians, financed by US companies, decided China should be fast tracked into the WTO.

In all fairness, not just U.S. companies, pretty much all multi-nationals had their eyes on China and what profits they could reap from there.

B737Captain1980 wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

The US citizens paying Boeing for not delivering planes to China because of Trump's policies. Makes sense I guess.

Or how about addressing a MASSIVE trade deficit? But then, if you don't live in the US, why would you care?

The trade deficit was $350B in Chinas favor in 2017. Does the rest of the world think we Americans are going to allow this to continue? How do you think the Chinese are able to snap up real estate and other luxury goods in cash in other parts of the world? Did they suddenly find a rainbow with a pot of gold under it? They have become accustomed to just selling goods to us and not buying anything in return. Its called TRADE. I buy something from you, you buy something back of relatively equal value.

Most of that is probably your own fault, US companies closed down plants in the US and moved them to China, they shuttered steel mills, they closed shipyard, they shut down consumer electronics plants, the textile industry and moved all these things to China, you're the master of your own downfall. Before I wrote this email I have a look around my house, I can't for the life of me I can't find one single item that is manufactured in the US, I have plenty of US branded products, xbox, apple, weber, levis but none of it is made in the US.

kipfilet wrote:

Sounds like Boeing can't even rely on its main customer (the US government) to protect its best interests.

You think?
The increased trade imbalance has been directly reflected into Ministry of War spending.
No idea if this match is intentional or not.

People forget that it was the US that actively encouraged China's manufacturing base. In the late 1980s it was Bush 1 (former US Ambassador to China) who kicked it off, followed by Clinton who ramped it up. Manufacturing was outsourced to China. Services were outsourced to India (call a 1-800 customer care number and see where you end up and whom you're speaking to).

The idea was to benefit Wall Street, since companies that outsourced could legitimately claim they were cutting expenses. In reality, they were shutting down factories and laying off people but their share prices soared and unemployment grew. It's one of the paradoxes of the US in the 1990s that the stock market was in a bull run but unemployment was high. Technology transfer to China was seen as a necessary evil in the pursuit of profit.

Further, outsourcing manufacturing to China, forced the Chinese to use and accept US Dollars, keep their reserves in US Dollars and finance US debt. How..? When China exported goods to the US, they would be paid in US Dollars. They would have to recycle those Dollars into buying US Treasuries and other US Dollar denominated assets. China joined foreign creditors like Japan keeping the US financially afloat.

Except now, the game has changed. US foreign and economic policy is seen for what it is - a precursor to sanctions, tariffs and war. The Yuan continues to gain credibility (it's now part of the IMF's basket of Special Drawing Rights), bilateral trade agreements that China makes are either settled in Yuan, or settled in both Yuan and the currency of the other country. As President Putin pointed out and President Xi concurred, the world is moving towards De-Dollarisation. Russia has sold off virtually all its US Treasury holdings and China is steadily reducing theirs.

The US is in a state of panic. They're running out of foreign funding, the US Dollar is being shunned in trade agreements (the process accelerated when the US blocked Russia and Iran from SWIFT, which was supposed to be a neutral currency transfer mechanism), Trump needs to re-build infrastructure and the manufacturing base - and the civilized world is fed up with chronic US warmongering.

The "trade war" with China is not only the US attempting to take back what they created - but is a classic Mafia shakedown for more cash.

USA need to recognize that perhaps the biggest export product is in fact its USD.

The rest of the world need to give cheap work in form of product to get a credit note in USD as payment.

Most countries cannot do this except Euro area and now china.

The biggest battle is now what procentage of world trade is made in USD.

If the procentage of USD ho down too fast US economy is like a family living too long time on its credit card and now it is time to pay debt back never funny.

Summary
Total global foreign exchange reserves, in all currencies, rose to $11.4 trillion in the fourth quarter 2018, according to the IMF's just released COFER data.
These foreign exchange reserves do not include the Federal Reserve's holdings of dollar-denominated assets, such as Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities.
But the amount of USD-denominated exchange reserves ticked down to $6.62 trillion, and the dollar's share of global foreign exchanges reserves dropped to 61.7%, the lowest since 2013.

So usd even if percentage of total reserve currency go down the total amount of worlds reserves go up meaning that in number of usd not too much has been paid back.

A non carbon world will change this dramatic.

Aesma wrote:

axiom wrote:

Moving beyond the racism and dick jerking in this thread to a more fundamental question: if the US-China trade relationship was so bad for so long (ie so “against” US interests), why have corporate elites actively reproduced this relationship? I have a slight suspicion that trade balances aren’t everything...

Corporate elites manage to be fine even after having crashed the world economy, so they're not exactly the ones to look at to know if something is good or not.

The crux of the problem is that China shouldn't have been accepted to the WTO for at least a decade more, then was the time to talk about opening their market.

Instead US politicians, financed by US companies, decided China should be fast tracked into the WTO.

To be clear, I’m not saying that corporate elites are a barometer for good behavior. I was curious to understand the -actual- political and economic landscape of power that has produced this context. This is helpful — thanks.

GearShaft5 wrote:

People forget that it was the US that actively encouraged China's manufacturing base. In the late 1980s it was Bush 1 (former US Ambassador to China) who kicked it off, followed by Clinton who ramped it up. Manufacturing was outsourced to China. Services were outsourced to India (call a 1-800 customer care number and see where you end up and whom you're speaking to).

The idea was to benefit Wall Street, since companies that outsourced could legitimately claim they were cutting expenses. In reality, they were shutting down factories and laying off people but their share prices soared and unemployment grew. It's one of the paradoxes of the US in the 1990s that the stock market was in a bull run but unemployment was high. Technology transfer to China was seen as a necessary evil in the pursuit of profit.

Further, outsourcing manufacturing to China, forced the Chinese to use and accept US Dollars, keep their reserves in US Dollars and finance US debt. How..? When China exported goods to the US, they would be paid in US Dollars. They would have to recycle those Dollars into buying US Treasuries and other US Dollar denominated assets. China joined foreign creditors like Japan keeping the US financially afloat.

Except now, the game has changed. US foreign and economic policy is seen for what it is - a precursor to sanctions, tariffs and war. The Yuan continues to gain credibility (it's now part of the IMF's basket of Special Drawing Rights), bilateral trade agreements that China makes are either settled in Yuan, or settled in both Yuan and the currency of the other country. As President Putin pointed out and President Xi concurred, the world is moving towards De-Dollarisation. Russia has sold off virtually all its US Treasury holdings and China is steadily reducing theirs.

The US is in a state of panic. They're running out of foreign funding, the US Dollar is being shunned in trade agreements (the process accelerated when the US blocked Russia and Iran from SWIFT, which was supposed to be a neutral currency transfer mechanism), Trump needs to re-build infrastructure and the manufacturing base - and the civilized world is fed up with chronic US warmongering.

The "trade war" with China is not only the US attempting to take back what they created - but is a classic Mafia shakedown for more cash.

This also resonates with a lot of my (partial) understanding of the context. Thanks for the articulate and clear analysis.

GearShaft5 wrote:

People forget that it was the US that actively encouraged China's manufacturing base. In the late 1980s it was Bush 1 (former US Ambassador to China) who kicked it off, followed by Clinton who ramped it up. Manufacturing was outsourced to China. Services were outsourced to India (call a 1-800 customer care number and see where you end up and whom you're speaking to).

The idea was to benefit Wall Street, since companies that outsourced could legitimately claim they were cutting expenses. In reality, they were shutting down factories and laying off people but their share prices soared and unemployment grew. It's one of the paradoxes of the US in the 1990s that the stock market was in a bull run but unemployment was high. Technology transfer to China was seen as a necessary evil in the pursuit of profit.

Further, outsourcing manufacturing to China, forced the Chinese to use and accept US Dollars, keep their reserves in US Dollars and finance US debt. How..? When China exported goods to the US, they would be paid in US Dollars. They would have to recycle those Dollars into buying US Treasuries and other US Dollar denominated assets. China joined foreign creditors like Japan keeping the US financially afloat.

Except now, the game has changed. US foreign and economic policy is seen for what it is - a precursor to sanctions, tariffs and war. The Yuan continues to gain credibility (it's now part of the IMF's basket of Special Drawing Rights), bilateral trade agreements that China makes are either settled in Yuan, or settled in both Yuan and the currency of the other country. As President Putin pointed out and President Xi concurred, the world is moving towards De-Dollarisation. Russia has sold off virtually all its US Treasury holdings and China is steadily reducing theirs.

The US is in a state of panic. They're running out of foreign funding, the US Dollar is being shunned in trade agreements (the process accelerated when the US blocked Russia and Iran from SWIFT, which was supposed to be a neutral currency transfer mechanism), Trump needs to re-build infrastructure and the manufacturing base - and the civilized world is fed up with chronic US warmongering.

The "trade war" with China is not only the US attempting to take back what they created - but is a classic Mafia shakedown for more cash.

Glad to see someone having an in-depth analysis instead of the typical “but...deficit, IP stealing, etc.”.

Bobloblaw wrote:

BravoOne wrote:

The Chinese are criminals at heart. Boeing ships a part over for a 787 simulator and China holds it in Customs for a month or more while the Chinese reverse engineer the part. Everyone knows what's going on, but that is just part of the price for doing business with these scoundrels. We would be better off without them.

US-China trade should be driven to ZERO.

Lol...and do what? Hurt US companies?

Seriously, someone like you need to read what Juche (yes...the North Korean doctrine) is all about, bc US is heading that way.

US companies do very little business in China. The idea that sold PMFN trade status in 2000-01 was that China was a huge market that US corporations couldn’t ignore. Turns out it is very difficult to access the Chinese market and most US companies in China use the country to build for the export market, not the domestic market.

The USD losing its reserve status will force the USA to live within its means

DDR wrote:

Bobloblaw wrote:

LH748 wrote:

Trump manages to destabilize core US industries, something that neither China nor Russia (Soviet Union included) ever achieved. All Chinese airlines are controlled by the Chinese government there's even more than just economic factors that will drive them away from buying Boeing.

What industry has Trump destabilized?

Yes, waiting to hear which industry Trump has destabilized.

Soybeans.

Bobloblaw wrote:

The USD losing its reserve status will force the USA to live within its means

And Boeing will sell more airplanes as a significant portion of Boeing's value chain is in USD.

WorldFlier wrote:

Bobloblaw wrote:

The USD losing its reserve status will force the USA to live within its means

And Boeing will sell more airplanes as a significant portion of Boeing's value chain is in USD.

Perhaps, but it will not be a pretty picture for the US citizens.

Dutchy wrote:

WorldFlier wrote:

Bobloblaw wrote:

The USD losing its reserve status will force the USA to live within its means

And Boeing will sell more airplanes as a significant portion of Boeing's value chain is in USD.

Perhaps, but it will not be a pretty picture for the US citizens.

True, in the short term, but it will make US Exports far more competitive in the long-term and force a domestic-centered model of consumption. Everything is out of balance because of the USD being the reserve currency and overvalued.

WorldFlier wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

WorldFlier wrote:

And Boeing will sell more airplanes as a significant portion of Boeing's value chain is in USD.

Perhaps, but it will not be a pretty picture for the US citizens.

True, in the short term, but it will make US Exports far more competitive in the long-term and force a domestic-centered model of consumption. Everything is out of balance because of the USD being the reserve currency and overvalued.

That is true, more US production of goods the world is willing to buy at a good price. The competition factor of the US economy isn't that good because of the reserve status of the USD, in essence, the world is financing the US trade imbalance.

Varsity1 wrote:

It would be far cheaper for the US gov to use the proceeds of taxed Chinese goods to subsidize Boeing and other industries impacted by reduced Chinese imports.

Excellent thought (sarcasm). I get to pay an extra tax on my consumer goods to support a multi-billion-dollar company already supported by my current tax payments.