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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:41 pm

kaitak wrote:
A101 wrote:
I've said that a few times now, but at the end of the day Cameron didn't do his due diligence he could of stacked the deck on this in his favour

Cameron didn't say it was law he said he will respect the will of the people, but stepped down to let someone else do the dirty work. TM doesn't believe in it either


I've always wondered whether the Welsh, NI and (particularly) the Scottish governments should have insisted that the votes be weighted


It was an advisory referendum, so it was never [50% + 1 vote = leave] in the first place. The advice from the referendum was clear - Scotland wanted firmly to remain, rest of nation split down the middle. What should have happened afterwards was a period of consultation to see how to address people's concerns with membership of the EU and some concrete plans to re-assess (probably via another referendum) a number of clearly thought-out plans and options on how to continue - including fixing local issues which had nothing to do with the EU but were the reason people voted against the establishment.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:43 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
Scotland is not being dragged out of the EU against its will.


I do not know how you can say that. My only conclusion being that I am attempting discourse with an irrational person.

Therefore I will cease after this message.

KLDC10 wrote:
Your point about a depression is pure conjecture. In fact, from the most recent economic indicators, it is the Eurozone, not the UK, which is heading for a recession. Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... austerity/


Pure conjecture?

Please explain how increasing the cost of every export between 5 and 50% can not lead to uncompetitiveness on the international market and thus lead to a collapse in exports.

Actually, don't bother. You'll probably just reply #ProjectFear or some similar crap and as I said above, I'm not wasting my time with an irrational person.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:46 pm

KLDC10 wrote:

For one thing, they're not going to be given the opportunity. I believe it was made quite clear that the Scottish Independence Referendum was a once in a generation thing. I might also add that it was conducted in the full knowledge that the Conservative Party would offer an in/out Referendum on Britain's membership of the EU if they won the next election. The 2016 Referendum was a nationwide vote in which the electorates of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted as one - those were the terms, Scotland is not being dragged out of the EU against its will.


It is quite ironic that in the 2014 Scottish Referendum the "no" side campaign focused on the implications of EU membership, with Scottish Independence meaning they leave the EU and would be forced to re-join at a later date as new members. and the economic damage that would be caused.

It is also ironic how superior the European Union is to the United Kingdom in the aspect of leaving - The UK has no Article 50 provisions, with Scotland needing the permission of Westminster to even consider it.

Against this backdrop on the UK leaving the EU (and in particular through a crash out no deal) it would be a substantive change in circumstances, which should (in my view) give Scotland the right to a referendum, whether it would happen depends more on the stubbornness of Westminster.

KLDC10 wrote:
Your point about a depression is pure conjecture. In fact, from the most recent economic indicators, it is the Eurozone, not the UK, which is heading for a recession. Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... austerity/


Which would be nothing to the self inflicted recession that is likely on a No Deal crash out - remember that on such departure and in the absence of FTA's, per WTO rules the UK would with either be subject to immediate tariffs on all imports (per EU tariffs we cut and pasted), causing price hikes in the UK, or axing of tariffs for imports WORLDWIDE (not reciprocated on exports) - destroying UK industry. Just in Time business models would also be ruptured, pound would slump, UK would technically be in default on debt, causing credit downgrade and increase in costs of borrowing. Such a move could also trigger market crashes in other territories. It would be pretty horrific for the UK to say the least....

A possible temporary change in the economic cycle in the eurozone now is nothing in comparison.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:55 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I think there will be another vote on a Scottish referendum, certainly if Northern Ireland is granted one. Fundamental things have changed since the last referendum, so it would be fair to grand them one.


IRC the right of NI self-determination is already granted and guaranteed by the GFA, isn't it ?
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:56 pm

Good news:

The British government wants to allow European truck drivers without a permit in the UK if there is no Brexit deal. The United Kingdom hopes to get a comparable flexible attitude from the European Union in return, the government said on Tuesday to the British Parliament.


Link: https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5725404/vk-wil ... e253ec8485

So interesting, the UK government wants to let lorry drivers in without friction - taking back control? -. Anyhow, I can answer the EU is going to give: NO, unless the UK is willing to commit to each and every EU rule for the time being. The EU will not allow a backdoor for the EU single market for goods which do not comply with EU rules and regulations. Why would May propose such a thing? If May wants to allow each lorry to enter the UK without permit or control, that is up to her, I think the UK needs to allow everything in to comply with WTO rules, but that is beside the point.

What a mess, what a mess, I think the May government is panicking now.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:59 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I think there will be another vote on a Scottish referendum, certainly if Northern Ireland is granted one. Fundamental things have changed since the last referendum, so it would be fair to grand them one.


A second Scottish independence referendum requires the UK Government to approve a Section 30 request by the Scottish Government to hold one. Nicola Sturgeon tried this recently and was basically told where to go by Theresa May. The UK Government can argue that they had a referendum 5 years ago.

A border poll in Northern Ireland, on the other hand, can happen if there is enough support for a change to the status quo as there's a mechanism for this built in to the Good Friday Agreement - a referendum would take place in both NI and RoI and both the British and Irish Governments would be obliged to implement it. For either side to try and push a border poll forward outside of these conditions risks upsetting the peace, though that hasn't stopped Sinn Fein from calling for one as early as the day after the referendum result.


Amiga500 wrote:
Why would the Scots or (Northern) Irish not seek to leave the UK if it meant being able to get back into the single largest market bloc in the developed world? The UK could be 10+ years away from having access to anything that even begins to resemble a shadow of the same.


I speak as a Remainer, but in the case of Northern Ireland I think any move to become part of RoI would be more to do with that potentially being the only way to ensure there's an open, frictionless border as there is now if no agreement can ever be reached between the UK and EU - as it would simply do away with it - rather than heavily pro-EU sentiments.

As for Scotland, they would also need to revise their case for independence because in 2014 they pledged to keep Pound Sterling, but if Scotland gains independence and rejoins the EU they would undoubtedly be forced to adopt the Euro and join Schengen. That might not sit well with some people. There's also the fact there were a few holes in the 2014 independence case which still need addressing. For example, the price of oil dropped sharply not long after the 2014 referendum - that would have caused problems for Scotland on day one of the original independence date in 2016.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:07 pm

In preparation of her visit to Brussels tomorrow, the PM is massively lowering the bar for herself, it seems.
No longer does she seek to scrap the backstop, she's now said in Belfast that she wants to 'pursue changes to it'... meaning it can stay in the WA.
The ERG will of course go ballistic over this, as it's their signature change to the already very humbling WA itself, so no idea what she's playing at here actually: IF the EU gives here something along her lines, it's very likely not going to be enough once again whennshe arrives back home, just like the with WA itself. TM has painted herself in a corner yet is in total denial over this.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the President of the European Council Donald Tusk has once again said the WA is not up for renegotiation and the EU will not be making any new offer to the UK; he simply hopes TM will show up with something realistic tomorrow, while the EU is now fully prepared for a 'no deal' outcome, although he hopes it can be avoided.

He also said (and retweeted for those who didn't hear it) that he has been wondering what the special place reserved in hell looked like for all those who promoted Brexit without having even a sketch of a plan on how to deliver it. The Irish PM was standing next to him and whispered that the British press would go crazy over this remark, to which Tusk just replied, 'Hahaha, I know'. Cool guy! ;)


.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:08 pm

Unfortunately, it appears absolutely no one in Westminster has the balls to admit brexit is the absolutely wrong path for the country , leave alone stop it happening by revoking article 50. Which is the only sensible option left in this entire debacle* (Hopefully this is the endgame they're working towards though). No deal is very clearly going to be catastrophic for the UK.
For some reason parliament is overly scared of a vocal minority. Threats of unrest etc etc from the gobby ones in the event of it being stopped, will be about as fulfilled as the 'massive' pro brexit marches that were promised. "They'll be big, really big"....reality: three men and a blind dog.

*It was the only sensible option at the start of it too but that's a five part or more thread.
Last edited by ChrisKen on Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:12 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
A second Scottish independence referendum requires the UK Government to approve a Section 30 request by the Scottish Government to hold one. Nicola Sturgeon tried this recently and was basically told where to go by Theresa May. The UK Government can argue that they had a referendum 5 years ago.


Well we'll see what happens, at this moment in time I can see May's government doesn't need something to complicate her political life further. But when the Brexit has happened, certainly a hard Brexit, I don't think they can keep postponing this request any further. Protests will ensure this. That is my take.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:33 pm

Donald Tusk @eucopresident wrote:
I've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted #Brexit, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely.

03:42 - 6 feb. 2019


Oh boy. Donald Tusk is frustrated by this process. I can understand why. The pressure is building, let's see what is going to give.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:37 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Good news:

The British government wants to allow European truck drivers without a permit in the UK if there is no Brexit deal. The United Kingdom hopes to get a comparable flexible attitude from the European Union in return, the government said on Tuesday to the British Parliament.


Link: https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5725404/vk-wil ... e253ec8485

So interesting, the UK government wants to let lorry drivers in without friction - taking back control? -. Anyhow, I can answer the EU is going to give: NO, unless the UK is willing to commit to each and every EU rule for the time being. The EU will not allow a backdoor for the EU single market for goods which do not comply with EU rules and regulations. Why would May propose such a thing? If May wants to allow each lorry to enter the UK without permit or control, that is up to her, I think the UK needs to allow everything in to comply with WTO rules, but that is beside the point.

What a mess, what a mess, I think the May government is panicking now.


Link is in Dutch so cannot read it, but think this is to do with permits for road haulage in a third country rather than anything to do with single market or customs union - the issues of leaving those institutions are never going to be that easily dealt with.

UK governments web page dealing with permits for use in the UK is here : https://www.gov.uk/guidance/internation ... ad-haulage

The EU have previously said in December they would do a similar thing if it reciprocated by the UK, but only for 9 months:

The Commission is proposing that operators from the United Kingdom are temporarily allowed to carry goods into the Union, provided the United Kingdom confers equivalent rights to Union road haulage operators and subject to conditions ensuring fair competition. This measure shall enter into force in case of no deal, and cease to have effect on 31 December 2019.


Importantly they also stress that cabotage within the EU by UK lorries would not be allowed in that interim period

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/fi ... nda_en.pdf
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Good news:

The British government wants to allow European truck drivers without a permit in the UK if there is no Brexit deal. The United Kingdom hopes to get a comparable flexible attitude from the European Union in return, the government said on Tuesday to the British Parliament.


Link: https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5725404/vk-wil ... e253ec8485

So interesting, the UK government wants to let lorry drivers in without friction - taking back control? -. Anyhow, I can answer the EU is going to give: NO, unless the UK is willing to commit to each and every EU rule for the time being. The EU will not allow a backdoor for the EU single market for goods which do not comply with EU rules and regulations. Why would May propose such a thing? If May wants to allow each lorry to enter the UK without permit or control, that is up to her, I think the UK needs to allow everything in to comply with WTO rules, but that is beside the point.

What a mess, what a mess, I think the May government is panicking now.


Panicking? Taking back control means also taking responsibillity. Oopsie....
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Well we'll see what happens, at this moment in time I can see May's government doesn't need something to complicate her political life further. But when the Brexit has happened, certainly a hard Brexit, I don't think they can keep postponing this request any further. Protests will ensure this. That is my take.


It is also not impossible to see that there could be third hung parliament at the next UK General Election. Should the SNP hold the balance of power at such a time then almost certainly a further independence referendum would be a pre-condition to any coalition or confidence and supply agreement.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:49 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Good news:

The British government wants to allow European truck drivers without a permit in the UK if there is no Brexit deal. The United Kingdom hopes to get a comparable flexible attitude from the European Union in return, the government said on Tuesday to the British Parliament.


Link: https://www.nu.nl/brexit/5725404/vk-wil ... e253ec8485

So interesting, the UK government wants to let lorry drivers in without friction - taking back control? -. Anyhow, I can answer the EU is going to give: NO, unless the UK is willing to commit to each and every EU rule for the time being. The EU will not allow a backdoor for the EU single market for goods which do not comply with EU rules and regulations. Why would May propose such a thing? If May wants to allow each lorry to enter the UK without permit or control, that is up to her, I think the UK needs to allow everything in to comply with WTO rules, but that is beside the point.

What a mess, what a mess, I think the May government is panicking now.


That does not solve the border issue, it just means that a lorry from the EU will not need a permit to continue to its destination within the UK after crossing the border. (which it would need actually when the UK becomes a third country)
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:04 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:

It was an advisory referendum, so it was never [50% + 1 vote = leave] in the first place. The advice from the referendum was clear - Scotland wanted firmly to remain, rest of nation split down the middle. What should have happened afterwards was a period of consultation to see how to address people's concerns with membership of the EU and some concrete plans to re-assess (probably via another referendum) a number of clearly thought-out plans and options on how to continue - including fixing local issues which had nothing to do with the EU but were the reason people voted against the establishment.



Technically your right, by law they didn’t have to enact the result. If remain won by one vote and leavers called for a second referendum would you do it?

Remember David Cameron went to the election on this issue, if he didn’t follow thru it would have resulted in a lame duck Prime Minister who’s word can’t be trusted. It’s easy to mince words on budget and where money is to be spent but on a national importance issues like this he had no choice.

In Cameron’s own words, he dose not regret calling the referendum, he regrets losing it.
“I don’t regret calling the referendum. I made a promise in the election to call the referendum,” Cameron said Monday night, popping up out of his car to speak with reporters. “Obviously I’m very concerned about what’s happening today but I do support the prime minister in her efforts to try and have a close partnership with the European Union. It’s the right thing to do and she has my support.”
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:21 pm

marcelh wrote:

Panicking? Taking back control means also taking responsibillity. Oopsie....


Paniking of course she is, because she’s made a dog breakfast out of it and she committed an own goal in trying to keep the UK in the EU by default
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:55 pm

A101 wrote:
Technically your right, by law they didn’t have to enact the result. If remain won by one vote and leavers called for a second referendum would you do it?


No, there would be no need to as I wouldn't have been idiotic enough to trigger article 50 based on a statistically evenly spilt advisory referendum result, in which less than one third of the UK's population choose the loosely defined leave option.

The government, indeed Parliament can quite legitimately revoke article 50 without a second referendum. They've explored 'brexit' in the most robust way they possibly could by going through the exit proceedings. It's blatantly obvious, to all but the most deluded, no deal is catastrophic and any deal (aka BINO) is pointless and the only real option is to revoke and remain.

Then instead of blaming the EU for everything, educate the populace about it and how it works. There's an amazing the correlation between those that having a reasonable understanding of the EU and it's processes, goals & principles and those that believe being a part of it is a good idea, both at home, in Europe and gloabally.

All these years on and I'm still yet to see a 'brexiteer' fact that can't be demonstrably debunked, proven to be untrue or anything other than a vauge, wishy-washy, fantastical soundbites.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:45 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
A101 wrote:
Technically your right, by law they didn’t have to enact the result. If remain won by one vote and leavers called for a second referendum would you do it?


No, there would be no need to as I wouldn't have been idiotic enough to trigger article 50 based on a statistically evenly spilt advisory referendum result, in which less than one third of the UK's population choose the loosely defined leave option.



Well there you have have it, aside from the dogs breakfast of a WA concocted by TM and her team, you don’t belive a second referendum is necessary a the people have spoken according to the rule of the referendum set out by government, the majority voted to leave, why will you take heed of a second referendum but not heed the result of the first?
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:20 am

A101 wrote:
Well there you have have it, aside from the dogs breakfast of a WA concocted by TM and her team, you don’t belive a second referendum is necessary a the people have spoken according to the rule of the referendum set out by government, the majority voted to leave, why will you take heed of a second referendum but not heed the result of the first?


I've never said run a second referendum so have never said I'd take heed of one. I said no second referendum is required and that parliament can revoke article 50 whilst still respecting the result of the one we've had.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:53 am

ChrisKen wrote:
A101 wrote:
Well there you have have it, aside from the dogs breakfast of a WA concocted by TM and her team, you don’t belive a second referendum is necessary a the people have spoken according to the rule of the referendum set out by government, the majority voted to leave, why will you take heed of a second referendum but not heed the result of the first?


I've never said run a second referendum so have never said I'd take heed of one. I said no second referendum is required and that parliament can revoke article 50 whilst still respecting the result of the one we've had.


Well remain as have been calling for a second referendum, That’s what my question to you was, if remain got up on such a narrow margin and leave was calling for a second referendum should it have been granted, you are calling into question legitimacy of the referendum to question on such a narrow margin it would be hypocrisy on the reminer camp to not call a second referendum if they had one on such a narrow margin
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:29 am

Again, you seem to have missed what I've said. I've not called into question the legitimacy of the referendum result. I've clearly stated what it was. For the sake of argument if the result had been the other way around, I'd still say there's no need for a second referendum (I'm not sure how confirming this helps your cause). If it had been the other way around, I expect the government would have still explored the options for both remaining or leaving the EU.

I'm sorry that after two years you (along with many others) still cannot grasp the concept that the referendum was not a win/lose vote. The vote was advisory. The vote showed an electorate spilt as near as dam it straight down the middle.
Parliament have explored the exit options in the extreme, none of those exit options appear to be viable or in the best interests of the country. With that established and the fact that Parliament should be acting in the best interests of the country; if Parliament should decided to revoke article 50, it would not in any way disrespect the referendum result or 'fly in the face of democracy' as is often claimed.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:05 am

ChrisKen wrote:
Again, you seem to have missed what I've said. I've not called into question the legitimacy of the referendum result. I've clearly stated what it was. For the sake of argument if the result had been the other way around, I'd still say there's no need for a second referendum (I'm not sure how confirming this helps your cause). If it had been the other way around, I expect the government would have still explored the options for both remaining or leaving the EU.

I'm sorry that after two years you (along with many others) still cannot grasp the concept that the referendum was not a win/lose vote. The vote was advisory. The vote showed an electorate spilt as near as dam it straight down the middle.
Parliament have explored the exit options in the extreme, none of those exit options appear to be viable or in the best interests of the country. With that established and the fact that Parliament should be acting in the best interests of the country; if Parliament should decided to revoke article 50, it would not in any way disrespect the referendum result or 'fly in the face of democracy' as is often claimed.



And your forgetting that Cameron went to an election on it why bother having a referendum if you don’t like the result and won’t honour an election promise. Who in there right mind will vote for him again. That was the position of the incumbent government, thecresult would not have gone away and the country would still be divided.

It was up to the government to honour the election promise, leave is leave, I’d bet my house that if the government was steadfast in the result the WA would be vastly different
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:44 am

Not doing the Brexit now would damage democracy and would be remembered as the Great Betrayal. The people have spoken, it is time to deliver the results. A Hard Brexit is still the most logical and consequent choice. BINO is no option and staying has been rejected by the voters and a majority in parliament. And to be honest it will not really be much of a problem. A few months of slight inconvenience, followed by an economic boon when the UK is freed of the shackles of the EU and money wasted on the EU can be spent for things in the UK. (like reducing social security costs and making the UK more attractive for investors by reducing taxes and the minimum wages)
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:43 am

seahawk wrote:
Not doing the Brexit now would damage democracy and would be remembered as the Great Betrayal. The people have spoken, it is time to deliver the results. A Hard Brexit is still the most logical and consequent choice. BINO is no option and staying has been rejected by the voters and a majority in parliament. And to be honest it will not really be much of a problem. A few months of slight inconvenience, followed by an economic boon when the UK is freed of the shackles of the EU and money wasted on the EU can be spent for things in the UK. (like reducing social security costs and making the UK more attractive for investors by reducing taxes and the minimum wages)


:roll: Still trolling I see.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:46 am

A101 wrote:
It was up to the government to honour the election promise, leave is leave


What kind of leave, nobody promised a hard Brexit, nobody had any plan for Brexit. 2,5years of discussion and you still are saying this grossly oversimplified statements. Why?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:59 am

Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Not doing the Brexit now would damage democracy and would be remembered as the Great Betrayal. The people have spoken, it is time to deliver the results. A Hard Brexit is still the most logical and consequent choice. BINO is no option and staying has been rejected by the voters and a majority in parliament. And to be honest it will not really be much of a problem. A few months of slight inconvenience, followed by an economic boon when the UK is freed of the shackles of the EU and money wasted on the EU can be spent for things in the UK. (like reducing social security costs and making the UK more attractive for investors by reducing taxes and the minimum wages)


:roll: Still trolling I see.


The people of the UK did vote for Brexit. Parliament decided with a sound majority to trigger article 50 and remain seems to be no option any more. Neither of the 2 big parties is willing to stop the Brexit. So let them try and see if the promises come true. "The Great Betrayal" is fresh out of the British media as a warning against remain btw.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:46 am

A101 wrote:
I’d bet my house that if the government was steadfast in the result the WA would be vastly different


How could the WA be any different given Theresa Mays red lines and desire to protect the Goff Friday Agreement? Please enlighten us.

Davis, Farage, Rees-Mogg and Johnson have said similar things before, but none of them have come up with any workable solution, ever.

what's yours?
 
bennett123
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:59 am

Seahawk

Doubt that your policies would be terribly popular.

The Minimum Wage is not that high, and any reduction would impact millions of voters.

To then give tax breaks to the better off would also go down like a Lead Balloon.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:25 am

bennett123 wrote:
Seahawk

Doubt that your policies would be terribly popular.

The Minimum Wage is not that high, and any reduction would impact millions of voters.

To then give tax breaks to the better off would also go down like a Lead Balloon.


Well, all this is possible when you take back control and if you are no longer part of one of the big trading blocks you need to offer other advantages to attract investors. Cheap labour is one.
 
jcancel
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:04 am

Which is why Tory Brexiteers want Singapore lite.

seahawk wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Seahawk

Doubt that your policies would be terribly popular.

The Minimum Wage is not that high, and any reduction would impact millions of voters.

To then give tax breaks to the better off would also go down like a Lead Balloon.


Well, all this is possible when you take back control and if you are no longer part of one of the big trading blocks you need to offer other advantages to attract investors. Cheap labour is one.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:26 am

A101 wrote:
I’d bet my house that if the government was steadfast in the result the WA would be vastly different


That's a very intriguing claim; if I may say so.
Care to elaborate a bit on what in the WA would be vastly different exactly when the government would be more steadfast?

Because as far as I see it, TM:
1- triggered article 50 to leave the EU despite the UK not remotely being ready for it
(would you have triggered it even earlier, knowing no preparations were made at that point?)
2- drew additional red lines for the type of Brexit which can't be spelling 'out is out' more than they did
(out of the SM and CU, out of Euratom: what more would you leave, there's nothing left?)
3- stands by the constitutional order of the UK, including the GFA which is an integral part of that order.
(are you willing to split the UK for the sake of Brexit, in a sovereign part which exits the EU, and a sovereign part which remains in the EU?)

So rather than claim the government should be more steadfast like you do, I'd say it should be looking at where it needs to be flexible instead:
a- it can't be on 1- as that's pretty much irrevokable by now (at least politically) so that ship has sailed
b- it can't be on 3-, unless it wants to make Brexit into an even bigger constitutional and existentional crisis than it already is for the UK itself
c- so it has to be on 2-, since those red lines are nothing but self-imposed by TM and her Tories and never got mandated by the people, not even in a simple GE (which she lost, btw)

Rather than being steadfast and screw Brexit and the UK's economy at the same time, TM should do what I've been advocating her doing for some time now: that is to actively work with JC to get the sort of brexit which commands a very large majority in Parliament, even if not in her own party: a sort of Norway+ like JC has now officially proposed to her in return for her support.

Yes, that means staying in a CU with the EU forever, just as it means all but staying in the SM too (wasn't such promissed by the vote LEAVE campain anyway?) and it means Dr Fox will officially be out of a government office (but he's been out of a real job to do anyway, so who cares?) ... oh, and yes: wealthy conservative businessmen and party sponsors will not like the fact the UK will not be able to lower its food, social, labour and consumer protection standards in a drive to be more competitive than the EU, but seriously: would that be such a big drama for the 17.4M people who voted for brexit because they were already stugling under the government's economic policies of today?
Do they all run a Dyson or a private hedgefund?

I think a wide majority in both parliament in society is more than willing to settle for a Norway+ outcome, as it explicitly delivers on the referendum result as well as best protecting the economy and jobs of millions of ordinary people, so why on earth is the PM not going for the obviously best available solution, persuing rather an illusion of her own party?
Does she really still feel she has the moral obligation to save the face of a bunch of Brexiteers who've been very disloyal to her on numerous accounts?
How much of a fetish is it, to save the personal careers of a few Tory MPs? To the point of selling the economy and the jobs of millions of people down the river?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:57 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
It was up to the government to honour the election promise, leave is leave


What kind of leave, nobody promised a hard Brexit, nobody had any plan for Brexit. 2,5years of discussion and you still are saying this grossly oversimplified statements. Why?


That's because it is actually simple, the question was as I said before and as you know,
"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? "

It didn't ask should we be remain tied to the CU/EU by default. No agreement should and is the default position if no agreement could be reach.

TM red lines are the default position as per the question.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:14 am

Actually that's not true, A101, since:
1- the LEAVE campaign itself deliberatey kept the ambiguity over their preferred alternative relationship with the EU
2- although SM and CU membership is included in EU membership, the opposite isn't true: you can be in a CU with the EU (eg. Turkey, Andorra, San Marino) and/or you can be in its SM too (e.g. Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein) without being in the EU.
3- Euratom (which the UK is leaving too) is even a completely seperate legal entity as also evidenced by the fact the lettre from TM to President Tusk of March 29th 2016 explicitly mentions this treaty too: where's the public mandate for that decision, if I may ask?
4- maybe the UK sould also leave UEFA then, while at it?
Brexit means just that: you leave the EU: all the rest is not explicitly mandated by a public vote, no matter how much you try to make it sound otherwise.
In fact, the public vote mandated the government to persue the next lower level of EU integration only, i.e. that of a Norway+ status: SM + CU membership.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
A3801000
Posts: 500
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:17 am

Congratulations to the UK!
Free Trade Agreement signed, ready to come into effect after the UK has left the EU.
And congratulations to the Faroe Islands too of course :)

https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... eement-fta
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:22 am

Richard28 wrote:

How could the WA be any different given Theresa Mays red lines and desire to protect the Goff Friday Agreement? Please enlighten us.

Davis, Farage, Rees-Mogg and Johnson have said similar things before, but none of them have come up with any workable solution, ever.

what's yours?


Its actually quite simple really, besides from the obvious succession/ reunification

To remain in good faith of the GFA,
As you know Ireland is an Island it has a natural barrier from the EU/UK therefore there could be an attachment to the GFA that the Island of Ireland becomes an economic exclusion zone between the EU/UK in relation to internal trade between ROI/NI plus the free movement within Ireland only, trade internally between ROI/NI is too the current standards frictionless, trade from ROI to UK is subject to whatever conditions the EU/UK agree to and vice versa that NI trade to EU

Both have international airports and can service domestic routes to the EU or UK. travel for ROI citizens to the EU is classed as domestic travel as does from NI to the UK, ROI citizens who wish to travel to the UK travel by the international travellers system's and are captured by those rule entering the UK and vice versa to NI to EU.

Its actually quite simple except the bit where the EU doesn't want to negotiate in good faith
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:35 am

A101 wrote:
why bother having a referendum if you don’t like the result and won’t honour an election promise.

It was up to the government to honour the election promise, leave is leave,


You still don't appear to be able to grasp that the referendum was not a win/lose vote. And still cannot see the result for what ot was....a split down the middle with no clear answer from the electorate that voted.

Election promises are broken all the time. You're generally an idiot if you vote on a single issue but that's another thread. However, the government have acted upon that promise, they've trigger article 50, they've neogoiated a Withdrawal Agreemen and have fulfilled your beloved election promise.

If after doing these things, the government, indeed Parliment, can clearly see IT IS NOT IN THE INTERESTS OF THE UK TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION then they should quite rightly act accordingly. That's what parliamnet is there for in the first place.


I’d bet my house that if the government was steadfast in the result the WA would be vastly different

You'd lose your house.
None of those lovely leave leaders dained to go anywhere near a position of accountability, they are all on record as having no idea of how to do anything differently.
Indeed, by definition, the withdrawal agreement cannot be any better than it currently is. EU law (which we wrote) and UK commitments/laws dictate as such. The Thames full of milk & honey promised by 'Leave' was unachievable from the outset because of those little details too. No cherry picking, no deals better than member states, no access without adhering to the rules of the market. No cake and eating it too.

The only difference you could have, is there would be no WA at all and the UK would already be out, floundering without hope of rescue, on the global sea (without a paddle). Because you still cannot grasp no deal is a catastrophic scenerio.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:35 am

A3801000 wrote:
Congratulations to the UK!
Free Trade Agreement signed, ready to come into effect after the UK has left the EU.
And congratulations to the Faroe Islands too of course :)

https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... eement-fta


From the very first page:
"It maintains the effects of the EU-Faroe Islands agreement in a bilateral context", so absolutely nothing new here.

It's a much needed legal solution to the fact that the Faroe Islands -although constitutionally an intergral part of the Kingdom of Denmark- are no part of the EU, and as such any future FTA with the EU will not apply to them and so the UK would no longer be able to trade with the Faroe Islands like it now can via the EU protocols linking the Faroe Islands into the EU's economic sphere.

Expect similar solutions for other constitutionally difficult parts of EU memberstates, like for instance Greenland or certain French oversees communities: in fact the WA already mentioned the need for those as any EU-UK agreement will not apply to these territories since the UK becomes a third party. (which is exactly where the term third party comes from, btw)

But hey, it's proof of the state of dispair if the UK's trade secretary is having to brag about a simply roll over agreement with an autonomous part of a EU memberstate as his biggest achievement, less than 50 days before the supposed Brexit date!
Last edited by sabenapilot on Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:40 am

A101 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:

How could the WA be any different given Theresa Mays red lines and desire to protect the Goff Friday Agreement? Please enlighten us.

Davis, Farage, Rees-Mogg and Johnson have said similar things before, but none of them have come up with any workable solution, ever.

what's yours?


Its actually quite simple really, besides from the obvious succession/ reunification

To remain in good faith of the GFA,
As you know Ireland is an Island it has a natural barrier from the EU/UK therefore there could be an attachment to the GFA that the Island of Ireland becomes an economic exclusion zone between the EU/UK in relation to internal trade between ROI/NI plus the free movement within Ireland only, trade internally between ROI/NI is too the current standards frictionless, trade from ROI to UK is subject to whatever conditions the EU/UK agree to and vice versa that NI trade to EU

Both have international airports and can service domestic routes to the EU or UK. travel for ROI citizens to the EU is classed as domestic travel as does from NI to the UK, ROI citizens who wish to travel to the UK travel by the international travellers system's and are captured by those rule entering the UK and vice versa to NI to EU.

Its actually quite simple except the bit where the EU doesn't want to negotiate in good faith



it's not quite simple, it's actually quite complicated.

In short: the DUP would go ballistic over any such proposal from TM, I'm sure.
On top of that, it requires the ROI to fundamentally alter the way in which it interacts with the EU just to make Brexit work, as well.
It's really not up to others to bend over backwards to make some Englanders have it's ideal wet dream come true, you know?
The UK's willing to leave the EU, so it's up to them to come up with all the solutions to match their desire for the future with promisses from the past, not the ROI or the EU. Others don't have to try to turn into a reality your daydreams, really.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:45 am

A101 wrote:
Its actually quite simple really, besides from the obvious succession/ reunification

To remain in good faith of the GFA,
As you know Ireland is an Island it has a natural barrier from the EU/UK therefore there could be an attachment to the GFA that the Island of Ireland becomes an economic exclusion zone between the EU/UK in relation to internal trade between ROI/NI plus the free movement within Ireland only, trade internally between ROI/NI is too the current standards frictionless, trade from ROI to UK is subject to whatever conditions the EU/UK agree to and vice versa that NI trade to EU

Both have international airports and can service domestic routes to the EU or UK. travel for ROI citizens to the EU is classed as domestic travel as does from NI to the UK, ROI citizens who wish to travel to the UK travel by the international travellers system's and are captured by those rule entering the UK and vice versa to NI to EU.

Its actually quite simple except the bit where the EU doesn't want to negotiate in good faith


What you describe is putting the border in the Irish sea.

This idea has already been floated, indeed it was an initial suggestion to the problem by the EU no less... but the Conservative Party did not back it (remember they are the Conservative & Unionist party) and neither did the DUP, who do not want any further separation from the UK.

So to pursue this line will have meant a loss of the confidence & supply arrangement with the DUP - so a loss of a workable majority, and a split in the Conservative party.

So this would not be a solution that could get through Parliament. Any other ideas?
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:48 am

A101 wrote:

Its actually quite simple really, besides from the obvious succession/ reunification

To remain in good faith of the GFA,
As you know Ireland is an Island it has a natural barrier from the EU/UK therefore there could be an attachment to the GFA that the Island of Ireland becomes an economic exclusion zone between the EU/UK in relation to internal trade between ROI/NI plus ......


It leaves NI, a part of the United Kingdom as a vassal state.

You leave the majority of the population in NI that consider themselves as British extremely pee'd off and dub all citizens there as second class UK citizens. This is quite rightly unacceptable to them and the constitution

You'd leave UK citizens subject to customs and immigration control within their own country (against the constitution). Freedom of movement.

The EU quite rightly won't allow the UK (a 3rd country) to be effectively both in and out of the EU/A customs Union. Especially without a deal in place regarding that status in the future.

Ireland wishes to be part of the EU.

The Irish Sea border is not a viable solution.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:58 am

Richard28 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Its actually quite simple really, besides from the obvious succession/ reunification

To remain in good faith of the GFA,
As you know Ireland is an Island it has a natural barrier from the EU/UK therefore there could be an attachment to the GFA that the Island of Ireland becomes an economic exclusion zone between the EU/UK in relation to internal trade between ROI/NI plus the free movement within Ireland only, trade internally between ROI/NI is too the current standards frictionless, trade from ROI to UK is subject to whatever conditions the EU/UK agree to and vice versa that NI trade to EU

Both have international airports and can service domestic routes to the EU or UK. travel for ROI citizens to the EU is classed as domestic travel as does from NI to the UK, ROI citizens who wish to travel to the UK travel by the international travellers system's and are captured by those rule entering the UK and vice versa to NI to EU.

Its actually quite simple except the bit where the EU doesn't want to negotiate in good faith


What you describe is putting the border in the Irish sea.

This idea has already been floated, indeed it was an initial suggestion to the problem by the EU no less... but the Conservative Party did not back it (remember they are the Conservative & Unionist party) and neither did the DUP, who do not want any further separation from the UK.

So to pursue this line will have meant a loss of the confidence & supply arrangement with the DUP - so a loss of a workable majority, and a split in the Conservative party.

So this would not be a solution that could get through Parliament. Any other ideas?


It’s fundametly different trade internally stays the same, trade from NI to the UK is as domestic rules apply trade from ROI to mainland UK is treated as third nation. Trade from ROI to rest of EU is domestic trade no different to what you have now trade from NI to Rest of EU is via third party arrangement, it honours the GFA it dosnt tie the UK to the EU as a whole. All the current agreements between NI/ROI meets the GFA
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:05 pm

A101 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:

How could the WA be any different given Theresa Mays red lines and desire to protect the Goff Friday Agreement? Please enlighten us.

Davis, Farage, Rees-Mogg and Johnson have said similar things before, but none of them have come up with any workable solution, ever.

what's yours?


Its actually quite simple really, besides from the obvious succession/ reunification

To remain in good faith of the GFA,
As you know Ireland is an Island it has a natural barrier from the EU/UK therefore there could be an attachment to the GFA that the Island of Ireland becomes an economic exclusion zone between the EU/UK in relation to internal trade between ROI/NI plus the free movement within Ireland only, trade internally between ROI/NI is too the current standards frictionless, trade from ROI to UK is subject to whatever conditions the EU/UK agree to and vice versa that NI trade to EU

Both have international airports and can service domestic routes to the EU or UK. travel for ROI citizens to the EU is classed as domestic travel as does from NI to the UK, ROI citizens who wish to travel to the UK travel by the international travellers system's and are captured by those rule entering the UK and vice versa to NI to EU.

Its actually quite simple except the bit where the EU doesn't want to negotiate in good faith


And why should be Republic of Ireland agree to that?
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 2868
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:12 pm

A101 wrote:
It’s fundametly different: trade internally stays the same, trade from NI to the UK is as domestic rules apply trade from ROI to mainland UK is treated as third nation. Trade from ROI to rest of EU is domestic trade no different to what you have now trade from NI to Rest of EU is via third party arrangement, it honours the GFA it dosnt tie the UK to the EU as a whole. All the current agreements between NI/ROI meets the GFA


yes, and it leaves the door wide open to bypassing whatever rules on trade between the UK and the ROI(EU) there will be by first going through NI.

The EU doesn't want to see the UK (and all of its future free trading partners like who knows one day the US) to be importing all sort of stuff it does not allow onto its SM by first placing them in NI from where they can then be imported freely into the ROI and thus into the EU: chlorinated chickens for instance.

and since you're so fond of taking back control of your rules and borders, I'd expect you woudn't like the idea of the EU27 being able to get into the UK unhindered via the NI backdoor either? You're not really in control of your 1,000mi long sea border with the EU, if the backdoor land border is wide open, you know?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:20 pm

ChrisKen wrote:

It leaves NI, a part of the United Kingdom as a vassal state.


Nope, as the rules of the UK still apply within NI, internal trade between NI/ROI remains the status quo within the Island of Ireland


ChrisKen wrote:
You leave the majority of the population in NI that consider themselves as British extremely pee'd off and dub all citizens there as second class UK citizens. This is quite rightly unacceptable to them and the constitution



They are still governed by the National laws of the UK in NI, just as ROI have national laws once you cross the border

ChrisKen wrote:
You'd leave UK citizens subject to customs and immigration control within their own country (against the constitution). Freedom of movement.



Nope, ROI/NI citizens have free movements within the island confine, NI citizens board domestic travel between NI and UK no border checks, ROI citizen travel via international rules and are subject to those rule on entry to mainland UK and vice versa

ChrisKen wrote:
The EU quite rightly won't allow the UK (a 3rd country) to be effectively both in and out of the EU/A customs Union. Especially without a deal in place regarding that status in the future.


The UK as a whole won’t be in the EU, just a Mutual Irish GFA recognition


ChrisKen wrote:
Ireland wishes to be part of the EU.


Didn’t you just say they are going to be pissed of if the leave the UK? The UK is no longer going to be part of the EU

ChrisKen wrote:
The Irish Sea border is not a viable solution.



So why is it viable when the EU remainers suggest it?
 
A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:28 pm

EU officially rejects TMs demands to renegotiate the Brexit deal. 'Withdrawal Agreement is not up for renegotiation' - Joint statement by TM and Juncker.
Now what?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:29 pm

seahawk wrote:

And why should be Republic of Ireland agree to that?


They don’t have to if they don’t want to, the whole idea is for the GFA to remain intact. So the only for the GFA to remain intact is that the UK has to remain tied to the EU is that it, the EU is saying my way or the highway which dissolves the GFA
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:31 pm

A3801000 wrote:
EU officially rejects TMs demands to renegotiate the Brexit deal. 'Withdrawal Agreement is not up for renegotiation' - Joint statement by TM and Juncker.
Now what?


Wave goodbye :wave:
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:35 pm

A101 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

And why should be Republic of Ireland agree to that?


They don’t have to if they don’t want to, the whole idea is for the GFA to remain intact. So the only for the GFA to remain intact is that the UK has to remain tied to the EU is that it, the EU is saying my way or the highway which dissolves the GFA


No, the British decision to leave the EU dissolves the GFA, not the idea that the Irish are unwilling to change their status within the EU.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:43 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Well we'll see what happens, at this moment in time I can see May's government doesn't need something to complicate her political life further. But when the Brexit has happened, certainly a hard Brexit, I don't think they can keep postponing this request any further. Protests will ensure this. That is my take.


It is also not impossible to see that there could be third hung parliament at the next UK General Election. Should the SNP hold the balance of power at such a time then almost certainly a further independence referendum would be a pre-condition to any coalition or confidence and supply agreement.


That's also assuming the SNP have sufficient seats to hold the balance of power. In the last Scottish Parliament and UK General Elections they lost seats and some people view them as being too obsessed with independence and they've taken their eye off the ball regarding the day job. Granted some of their support in previous elections is probably linked to independence, but the numbers for them to be able to call another referendum have been dwindling (the last Section 30 request which was knocked back by May needed the pro-indy Scottish Greens' support to pass through the Scottish Government).

This could all change of course if things go tits up after Brexit Day and the SNP are able to persuade enough people to back them in order to get a second independence referendum with the promise of EU membership. Remember, not everyone who supports Scottish independence also supports EU membership.

I agree though that in the event of another hung parliament the price of SNP support/confidence-and-supply/in coalition would probably be indyref2.

A101 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
You'd leave UK citizens subject to customs and immigration control within their own country (against the constitution). Freedom of movement.


Nope, ROI/NI citizens have free movements within the island confine, NI citizens board domestic travel between NI and UK no border checks, ROI citizen travel via international rules and are subject to those rule on entry to mainland UK and vice versa.


Ireland is part of the Common Travel Area with the UK, Isle of Man and Channel Islands, so Irish citizens can travel freely to/from these places without passports, visas etc. in the same way Brits/Manx/Channel Islanders can do likewise (not that it stops airlines such as Ryanair insisting on passports being the form of ID). It's good to see that both the UK and RoI want no changes to the CTA post-Brexit at least.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 2868
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:44 pm

A3801000 wrote:
EU officially rejects TMs demands to renegotiate the Brexit deal. 'Withdrawal Agreement is not up for renegotiation' - Joint statement by TM and Juncker.
Now what?


Since it's a JOIN STATEMENT, that's TM officially acknowledging the WA is closed and thus publically -albeit indirectly- ditching the ERG's demand to reopen it to take out the backstop (or even 'just' rewrite it) and thus ripping up the hope she can get a Brexit deal through with support of the ERG.
Given the statement mentions both parties will explore solutions through the political declaration on the future relationship in order to prevent the backstop from being used, it can only mean that the backstop as it currently is will somehow become the basis and permanent shape of that future relationship in fact.

It's bye bye hard brexit, if TM sets through with this!
I think TM has understood that hardering her stand isn't going to yield her a majority, so now she's going to try to soften it again in the hopes of finding a majority there... and I think she will indeed.
Red lines are going to be moving over the next few days and weeks, I'm sure.

Very important joint statement: Norway+ talks are effectively to start... ;)
Last edited by sabenapilot on Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:07 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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