Reinhardt
Posts: 117
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:21 pm

zkojq wrote:
One of the most important tenants of democracy is being able to change your mind...


Indeed, but that doesn't seem something Brexiteers think is allowed on this specific and only topic. Having faith in the result of a referedum, that it wasn't won with one side breaking electoral law, having members heavily fined and still being under investigation by the Police and Electoral Comission, with funds provided from non UK sources breaking all laws regarding referenda would also seem to be a rather important tenant of democracy.

A101 wrote:
There is nothing to stop governments of either persuasion to flip-flop between being in the European union or not at each cycle of general elections


No there isn't, but due to the complexity of such an entry or exit it's rather difficult just to push through in a few months from start to finish like any other normal peice of legislation. It's exactly how the EU question should have remained, a small part of an Election manifesto, instead of Cameron trying to stop UKIP and his party from pulling itself apart. Remember that prior to 2015 the appetite for an EU leave was well under 20%. Prior to 2010 it was less than 10%. Only once the campaign was announced, once the lies and money started did opinion really start to shift.

A101 wrote:
referendums are used as a tool to gather the directions for the sovereign to go on matters of the national importance.


Ah, so they are just a guide for directions? And if it is clear it is a non-binding referendum, then it really is only there to guide policy.

A101 wrote:
So I also gather if the Scottish referendum had won it would be okay for Parliament to quash the result, because you can’t trust the Scottish population to make such a important decision?


If the either side in the Scottish referendum did what Voteleave did in the Brexit referedum I would have expected the Scottish Govenment to have voided the result and re-run it, after a full parlimentary investigation and appropriate prosecutions had taken place. This is democracy, not what is currently happening with Brexit. Also a Supermajority should have been in place with Brexit, if it was intended to be used as a 100% we will implement your decision type vote. Cameron said it was, but in law it wasn't.
Last edited by Reinhardt on Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 1944
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:27 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
zkojq wrote:
One of the most important tenants of democracy is being able to change your mind...


Indeed, but that doesn't seem something Brexiteers think is allowed on this specific and only topic. Having faith in the result of a referedum, that it wasn't won with one side breaking electoral law, having members heavily fined and still being under investigation by the Police and Electoral Comission, with funds provided from non UK sources breaking all laws regarding referenda would also seem to be a rather important tenant of democracy.


Sure Theresa May changes her opinion 180 degrees on several subjects several times each week.
There will be a vote, there will be a vote, there will be a vote... oh, no, actually there won't be a vote 'cos I'll get thumped.
This is the best deal, no renegotiating, this is the best deal, no renegotiating, this is the best deal, no renegotiating - erm, actually, I recommend everyone vote against this deal and vote for me to go and renegotiate this deal as I can make it better.

Yet the public are not allowed to have an opinion.

Essentially, the public were asked a couple of years back did they want to buy a new car. But at the time they did not know:
- how many seats it had
- how many wheels it had
- how fast it was
- how much fuel it used
- even what colour it was
- or how much it cost.

... and that witch (along with the gang of clapping seals) thinks it is entirely reasonable that the public be expected to commit wholeheartedly to that course with no information and no means of having any more input after it becomes clear exactly what the end result will be?
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:33 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
zkojq wrote:
One of the most important tenants of democracy is being able to change your mind...


Indeed, but that doesn't seem something Brexiteers think is allowed on this specific and only topic. Having faith in the result of a referedum, that it wasn't won with one side breaking electoral law, having members heavily fined and still being under investigation by the Police and Electoral Comission, with funds provided from non UK sources breaking all laws regarding referenda would also seem to be a rather important tenant of democracy.


Sure Theresa May changes her opinion 180 degrees on several subjects several times each week.
There will be a vote, there will be a vote, there will be a vote... oh, no, actually there won't be a vote 'cos I'll get thumped.
This is the best deal, no renegotiating, this is the best deal, no renegotiating, this is the best deal, no renegotiating - erm, actually, I recommend everyone vote against this deal and vote for me to go and renegotiate this deal as I can make it better.

Yet the public are not allowed to have an opinion.

Essentially, the public were asked a couple of years back did they want to buy a new car. But at the time they did not know:
- how many seats it had
- how many wheels it had
- how fast it was
- how much fuel it used
- even what colour it was
- or how much it cost.

... and that witch (along with the gang of clapping seals) thinks it is entirely reasonable that the public be expected to commit wholeheartedly to that course with no information and no means of having any more input after it becomes clear exactly what the end result will be?


The main problem is that parliament voted by a majority to implement Article 50. So in the minds of Brexiteers and the Govenment, completely ignoring the faud of the referendum and with a farical Labour party there is not enough pressure to cancel it or significan't change direction, because they believe leaving (any type of leave) is also the will of parliament. I can't remember the last time I saw coverage of an important parliamentry session on the EU when the actual referedum legitimacy was questioned. It's been swept under the carpet because 'we must respect the will of the people'. It's utterly wrong in every way.

Labour should be actively pushing for Art 50 to be cancelled. If it can't do it with JC at the helm then he needs to go. Yesterday's polls showed Labour at now almost 10% behind - with the worst Conversative Govenment in living memory. Something has to change. I wouldn't vote for Labour with JC in charge in any normal circumstance, but I would if he said he'd cancel Brexit.

If he doesn't go, less Socialst Labour and less crazy Conversative MP need to set up a new centralist party with cancel Art 50 part of their manifesto asap. Nobody these days seems to accept that you can have both left and right of centre views at the same time, it's all everyone has to be either a Socialist or Conservative. I don't fit in either box, and nobody respresents my views. I suspect there is a great deal of the population in the same position.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 1944
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:50 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
Nobody these days seems to accept that you can have both left and right of centre views at the same time, it's all everyone has to be either a Socialist or Conservative. I don't fit in either box, and nobody respresents my views. I suspect there is a great deal of the population in the same position.


The Lib Dems badly screwed up by jumping into bed with the tories.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:58 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Nobody these days seems to accept that you can have both left and right of centre views at the same time, it's all everyone has to be either a Socialist or Conservative. I don't fit in either box, and nobody respresents my views. I suspect there is a great deal of the population in the same position.


The Lib Dems badly screwed up by jumping into bed with the tories.


To a point yes, but they did manage to keep the Conservatives from implementing a lot of incredibly damaging policy. Got them to massively reduce the wage level before you start paying tax etc. The nasty policies (except the spare room tax nonsense) were really implemented by May when they won a majority instead.

Most people completely mis-understand how student loans work, at what point they have to repay them but also completely miss the fact the Lib Dems didn't win the election so could never deploy their entire manifesto.

My old local council in the UK has been Lib Dem for decades. Generally they are very good. Tom Brake is an exceptionally accessable MP and seems a sensible guy. Next door council is Conservatives. The road surface changes to rubbish as soon as you enter, there are 20 mph limits on ALL roads in the ward, and the MP is a hard brexit fanatic. It's like you're going back in a time warp.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:33 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Nobody these days seems to accept that you can have both left and right of centre views at the same time, it's all everyone has to be either a Socialist or Conservative. I don't fit in either box, and nobody respresents my views. I suspect there is a great deal of the population in the same position.


The Lib Dems badly screwed up by jumping into bed with the tories.


To a point yes, but they did manage to keep the Conservatives from implementing a lot of incredibly damaging policy.


That recent BBC documentary on the lead up to Brexit threw some very interesting light on this... In effect, the Lib Dems were in fact keeping things under control while Cameron was posturing about migration and referendums to keep his own party intact. And - get this - the suggestion was that Cameron *wanted* the Lib Dems to stay in coalition after the election to prevent Brexit (and they would take the blame).

Winning the election actually screwed up his plans as everything spiralled out of control.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:42 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:

The Lib Dems badly screwed up by jumping into bed with the tories.


To a point yes, but they did manage to keep the Conservatives from implementing a lot of incredibly damaging policy.


That recent BBC documentary on the lead up to Brexit threw some very interesting light on this... In effect, the Lib Dems were in fact keeping things under control while Cameron was posturing about migration and referendums to keep his own party intact. And - get this - the suggestion was that Cameron *wanted* the Lib Dems to stay in coalition after the election to prevent Brexit (and they would take the blame).

Winning the election actually screwed up his plans as everything spiralled out of control.


Ahh yes, you make it sound those sorts of cunning plans are isolated to brexit and the UK. It happens all over the world.
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Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:45 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Nobody these days seems to accept that you can have both left and right of centre views at the same time, it's all everyone has to be either a Socialist or Conservative. I don't fit in either box, and nobody respresents my views. I suspect there is a great deal of the population in the same position.


The Lib Dems badly screwed up by jumping into bed with the tories.


To a point yes, but they did manage to keep the Conservatives from implementing a lot of incredibly damaging policy. Got them to massively reduce the wage level before you start paying tax etc. The nasty policies (except the spare room tax nonsense) were really implemented by May when they won a majority instead.

Most people completely mis-understand how student loans work, at what point they have to repay them but also completely miss the fact the Lib Dems didn't win the election so could never deploy their entire manifesto.

My old local council in the UK has been Lib Dem for decades. Generally they are very good. Tom Brake is an exceptionally accessable MP and seems a sensible guy. Next door council is Conservatives. The road surface changes to rubbish as soon as you enter, there are 20 mph limits on ALL roads in the ward, and the MP is a hard brexit fanatic. It's like you're going back in a time warp.


The labour run council area I live in is exactly how you describe your next door one.
223 319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 73G 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75

Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:55 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:

The Lib Dems badly screwed up by jumping into bed with the tories.


To a point yes, but they did manage to keep the Conservatives from implementing a lot of incredibly damaging policy.


That recent BBC documentary on the lead up to Brexit threw some very interesting light on this... In effect, the Lib Dems were in fact keeping things under control while Cameron was posturing about migration and referendums to keep his own party intact. And - get this - the suggestion was that Cameron *wanted* the Lib Dems to stay in coalition after the election to prevent Brexit (and they would take the blame).

Winning the election actually screwed up his plans as everything spiralled out of control.


You got to wonder what kind of long term party political strategy it is to hope you can remain in power although not ever gaining a majority, as such is a very rare situation for a governing party in the UK to be in... or so it should be, given the first past the post electoral system it has!
Cameron's strategy seemed to be very much in tune with proportional systems in the rest of the EU then, but sadly he 'forgot' to actually implement it.
 
agill
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:09 pm

A funny consequence of the chaos of brexit is that the right wing extremist party in Sweden has dropped the demand for us to leave.
 
A101
Posts: 419
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:30 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
.

No there isn't, but due to the complexity of such an entry or exit it's rather difficult just to push through in a few months from start to finish like any other normal peice of legislation. It's exactly how the EU question should have remained, a small part of an Election manifesto, instead of Cameron trying to stop UKIP and his party from pulling itself apart. Remember that prior to 2015 the appetite for an EU leave was well under 20%. Prior to 2010 it was less than 10%. Only once the campaign was announced, once the lies and money started did opinion really start to shift.


I deliberately didn't say what the EU would do, rather just illustrate that the government of the day if they have the numbers can put the UK in or out of the EU at a whim

Reinhardt wrote:
.
Ah, so they are just a guide for directions? And if it is clear it is a non-binding referendum, then it really is only there to guide policy.


In the UK context, yes
But you don't go to the trouble of letting the people decide then tell them to Jake off, that's just asking for trouble at the next general election. if you have no intentions of implementing the result don't ask for a referendum there are other ways of gauging public opinion


Reinhardt wrote:
.

If the either side in the Scottish referendum did what Voteleave did in the Brexit referedum I would have expected the Scottish Govenment to have voided the result and re-run it, after a full parlimentary investigation and appropriate prosecutions had taken place. This is democracy, not what is currently happening with Brexit.


Get ya hand off it, they broke the rules on over spend due to technicalities ie joining campaigns. what happened in this referendum campaign is nothing short of what happens in a general election, promise you the world and give you nothing in return. not much different from pork barrelling

Reinhardt wrote:
.
Also a Supermajority should have been in place with Brexit, if it was intended to be used as a 100% we will implement your decision type vote. Cameron said it was, but in law it wasn't.



I've said that a few times now, but at the end of the day Cameron didn't do his due diligence he could of stacked the deck on this in his favour

Cameron didn't say it was law he said he will respect the will of the people, but stepped down to let someone else do the dirty work. TM doesn't believe in it either
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:55 pm

agill wrote:
A funny consequence of the chaos of brexit is that the right wing extremist party in Sweden has dropped the demand for us to leave.


The PVV in the Netherlands doesn't speak about Nexit anymore, but it is still official policy. Because of Brexit the EU seems to be more popular in the remaining EU.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:03 pm

A101 wrote:

I deliberately didn't say what the EU would do, rather just illustrate that the government of the day if they have the numbers can put the UK in or out of the EU at a whim



Out yes - in no, as it requires all EU members to agree on adding the new member. And I do not think all will agree unless there is some like a 2/3rds majority for it in the British parliament. That is another mistake of British thinking - once you are out coming back in is not so easy and surely not under British terms.
 
jcancel
Posts: 133
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:20 pm

This is why, post Brexit, Remainers need to work to get a majority control of Parliament. Once this happens, they can begin a program involving:

* Truth in media reporting laws (media outlets are punished significantly if they deliberately lie)
* A tradition of giving significant consequences to lying MPs (dismissing the MP and/or seizing assets with a ban on making money from speeches and book deals)
* A truth and reconciliation program acknowledging that some Brexiteers had legitimate complaints, but that the A50 vote was a harmful choice, and that those who didnt ask for Brexit deserve significant compensation.
* Reminding voters that they are responsible for their choices, and even moreso MPs are responsible for their choices.

The UK does not currently have a tradition of expelling MPs. This hesitance is normally understandable, but now is different...

seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:

I deliberately didn't say what the EU would do, rather just illustrate that the government of the day if they have the numbers can put the UK in or out of the EU at a whim



Out yes - in no, as it requires all EU members to agree on adding the new member. And I do not think all will agree unless there is some like a 2/3rds majority for it in the British parliament. That is another mistake of British thinking - once you are out coming back in is not so easy and surely not under British terms.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:44 pm

jcancel wrote:
This is why, post Brexit, Remainers need to work to get a majority control of Parliament. Once this happens, they can begin a program involving:

* Truth in media reporting laws (media outlets are punished significantly if they deliberately lie)
* A tradition of giving significant consequences to lying MPs (dismissing the MP and/or seizing assets with a ban on making money from speeches and book deals)
* A truth and reconciliation program acknowledging that some Brexiteers had legitimate complaints, but that the A50 vote was a harmful choice, and that those who didnt ask for Brexit deserve significant compensation.
* Reminding voters that they are responsible for their choices, and even moreso MPs are responsible for their choices.

The UK does not currently have a tradition of expelling MPs. This hesitance is normally understandable, but now is different...

seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:

I deliberately didn't say what the EU would do, rather just illustrate that the government of the day if they have the numbers can put the UK in or out of the EU at a whim



Out yes - in no, as it requires all EU members to agree on adding the new member. And I do not think all will agree unless there is some like a 2/3rds majority for it in the British parliament. That is another mistake of British thinking - once you are out coming back in is not so easy and surely not under British terms.


If the MP’s view are extreme enough from the party position you’re most likely get expelled from the party but not parliament
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:56 pm

You can't just expel members of parliament. Serious offences need to be committed.

Just three MP's have been expelled since 1900

Horatio Bottomley (Independent, South Hackney), was expelled in August 1922, after being convicted of fraudulent conversion of property and sentenced to seven years' imprisonment.

Garry Allighan (Labour, Gravesend) was expelled on 30 October 1947, for lying to a committee and for gross contempt of the House after publication of an article in the World's Press News accusing members of insobriety and of taking fees or bribes for the supply of information.

Peter Baker (Conservative, South Norfolk) was expelled on 16 December 1954, after being sentenced to seven years' imprisonment for forgery. In this instance, the motion for expulsion need not have been moved: under the provisions then still in force of the Forfeiture Act 1870,he would have been automatically disqualified. These provisions were amended by the Criminal Law Act 1967


For those interested in what powers the house has. https://www.parliament.uk/documents/com ... ce/g06.pdf
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:17 am

jcancel wrote:
This is why, post Brexit, Remainers need to work to get a majority control of Parliament. Once this happens, they can begin a program involving:

* Truth in media reporting laws (media outlets are punished significantly if they deliberately lie)
.....
.....

No no, that doesn't work. You must have a free and independent press. Anything less than that, then a lot of things - certainly including EU membership - is out of question.

The problem is proper education of the people. The press prints what people will buy, so they can make a profit on their business. If people are stupid and uneducated, then they tend to buy invented lies and scandals.

The press enjoys that simply because invention of lies and scandals is much much cheaper than producing real information. The problem isn't entirely British, but only more severe in Britain than probably any developed country.

Educated people will seek valid information and that way make it profitable for the press to supply valid information.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
jcancel
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:05 am

A101 wrote:
If the MP’s view are extreme enough from the party position you’re most likely get expelled from the party but not parliament


Yes.. there was a recent case of Labour removing a person for misconduct, but she kept her seat.

prebennorholm wrote:
No no, that doesn't work. You must have a free and independent press. Anything less than that, then a lot of things - certainly including EU membership - is out of question.

The problem is proper education of the people. The press prints what people will buy, so they can make a profit on their business. If people are stupid and uneducated, then they tend to buy invented lies and scandals.

The press enjoys that simply because invention of lies and scandals is much much cheaper than producing real information. The problem isn't entirely British, but only more severe in Britain than probably any developed country.

Educated people will seek valid information and that way make it profitable for the press to supply valid information.


Problem is people dont entirely act in good faith. The yellow press barons (think Rush Limbaugh in the US) have influence over politicians, and the politicians want an inadequate education system so they arent challenged. The bad faith moves mean the problem doesn't get resolved. To get a better education system you have to have politicians willing to instate it. Some people only respond to the back of the hand :|

ChrisKen wrote:
You can't just expel members of parliament. Serious offences need to be committed.

Just three MP's have been expelled since 1900

Horatio Bottomley (Independent, South Hackney), was expelled in August 1922, after being convicted of fraudulent conversion of property and sentenced to seven years' imprisonment.

Garry Allighan (Labour, Gravesend) was expelled on 30 October 1947, for lying to a committee and for gross contempt of the House after publication of an article in the World's Press News accusing members of insobriety and of taking fees or bribes for the supply of information.

Peter Baker (Conservative, South Norfolk) was expelled on 16 December 1954, after being sentenced to seven years' imprisonment for forgery. In this instance, the motion for expulsion need not have been moved: under the provisions then still in force of the Forfeiture Act 1870,he would have been automatically disqualified. These provisions were amended by the Criminal Law Act 1967

For those interested in what powers the house has. https://www.parliament.uk/documents/com ... ce/g06.pdf


Thanks for the link! It does note that expelled MPs can seek reelection.

The US operates similarly too - in theory a vote is all that's needed to remove say a president or a member of Congress, but in practice an action will usually only be attempted if there are allegations of crimes, as noted here https://www.vox.com/2019/1/3/18166821/i ... ss-mueller - Nixon resigned before the impeachment process could be carried out, and both impeachment attempts (Johnson and Clinton) failed. I did mention the expulsion of the senators during the Civil War - note that it was due to the war environment

Ordinarily I would be against removing officials, and doing so will nilly is a recipe for disaster. Brexit, sadly, has the potential to severely damage the UK like the US Civil War did to the US. MPs should face real consequences for failing to do their duty, especially with these stakes.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:50 am

Reinhardt wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Nobody these days seems to accept that you can have both left and right of centre views at the same time, it's all everyone has to be either a Socialist or Conservative. I don't fit in either box, and nobody respresents my views. I suspect there is a great deal of the population in the same position.


The Lib Dems badly screwed up by jumping into bed with the tories.


To a point yes, but they did manage to keep the Conservatives from implementing a lot of incredibly damaging policy.


But if they had not jumped into coalition, then they would not have had the votes to push anything through parliament anyway...

Nick Clegg got seduced by the prospect of being in power - and didn't take a step back and realise there was another route to the same position which would have overlapped much more strongly with Lib Dem goals.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:05 pm

kaitak wrote:
There is, I think, another aspect to this, which has not really been commented on widely - an elephant in the room - which should perhaps be addressed. Quite apart from the fact that the Tory govt is supported by the DUP, there is a considerably body of opinion in the Tory party which is strongly anti-Irish and views Ireland in a rather condescending, supercilious manner. So, it's one thing to view to be forced into a course of action by the EU (for that, in many Brexiteers' minds, read "the Germans"), it's quite another to have that done by Ireland or the Irish. Obviously, they won't say this publicly, but I think that there is an aspect to the Brexiteers' psychology which is perhaps being overlooked and for Britain to be forced into agreeing to a backstop, it would effectively be perceived as Britain being forced by the EU to surrender to the Irish. Of course, the Tory party is also the "Conservative and Unionist" party, so that is another factor, but there would be a considerable body of opinion within the Tory party which would find it difficult to accept a solution which involved a concession to Ireland, particularly where it involved the sovereignty of NI. And here again, they are seeing NI as simply a territory, without any consideration of the interests of its population.


Good post. Fintan O'Toole make the good point about English Identity as being a cause of brexit. https://youtu.be/1SeadvWsn_k?t=340

par13del wrote:
Here is what I find funny, when Bojo said they could have an electronic border he was called a loon, then someone went and negotiated a back-stop agreement with the EU that no one in either party wants, now there is talk about an electronic border.

Getting very interesting as we approach the March deadline.

Please tell us about this 'electronic border' of which you speak of. If it's so simple and workable then the backstop won't need to be implemented.


How can it be that the people who are saying that the solution is easy - "lets just have some cameras" are the same people who say "no, signing up to a backstop agreement that stays in place until somebody invents that solution completely unacceptable" ? How? The people who say that it's easy are the same ones who say that the UK cannot sign up to a commitment to leave things the way they are in Ireland, until this easy solution is in place.

Are people who believe this completely inable to think critically?

Richard28 wrote:
Yep, the same technology that has not been implemented anywhere worldwide..... or even invented yet!!

ERG cling to it as it is the only “answer” they have....


:checkmark:

marcelh wrote:
I happily take some economical headwind just to see how the Brexiteers are coping with the results of a Hard Brexit. A very interesting political and economic experiment

:checkmark: I think it is important for people to learn that elections have consequences.


Richard28 wrote:

ltbewr wrote:
With Brexit, the EU may be beginning to devolve to a smaller and less powerful institution, going back more to its origins to coordinate trade.


You are talking in riddles here, for the single market to operate (i.e. the origins, the EEC) you need to co-ordinate standards and rules which you have criticised above. For the single market to be wholly effective a customs union, bringing down borders is also necessary.

:checkmark: And if you don't, some players will cheat the market - to the detriment of others.


ltbewr wrote:
Too many regulations to coordinate trade


Honestly, I never understand people making this argument. Think about it with a bit of perspective. Pretend for a moment that you are, for example, a chocolate manufacturer and exporter in the UK.

Before the EU existed: You have to comply individually with the food safety laws of each individual nation that you export to. Assuming that you are already UK compliant, that means you have to research the other 26 different food safety standards and adapt your production so that your products are compliant with each market. Switzerland requires "Milk Chocolate" to be made with full fat milk. Sweden requires trim milk. Those two are contradictory - Chocolate bound for Sweden will have to be produced in a different production run from Chocolate bound for Switzerland. Austria has no specific food safety rules relating to chocolate, so can be made with either batch. Belgium requires the Cocoa used in food products to be certified 'fair trade' Cocoa and audits this rigorously - none other countries that you export this have such a requirement, so do you make Chocolate bound for Belgium on its own production run with (more expensive) 'free trade' Cocoa? Or do you just not export to Belgium altogether? Italy requires that the factory be lab-tested for cleanliness on a monthly basis and audits this closely.

Once the Chocolate is made there are a tonne of packaging regulations that must be complied with for each country. Germany requires that the nutritional information be printed on the back of the label and that this be done in lettering no less that 3mm tall. Netherlands says 1.5mm. Belgium does not permit regular chocolate to be sold in less than 20gram pieces. Denmark has none of those rules, but does state that confectioneries must be sold in 100% biodegradable packaging.

The point being that there is 27 different sets of regulations to follow defining indigence, foodsafety, packaging etc. Complying with all of them makes for significantly more complication, which equates to added cost, or not exporting to some markets. Once the Chocolate leaves the factory, there are no tariffs to be paid for it to be exported to any of the other EU members, making for a relatively even playing field.

With the EU: Chocolate manufacturer has once set of rules to follow defining permitted indigence, foodsafety & packaging. Chocolate bound for all EU nations can be made in each production run, with the only complication being the need for labeling in different languages to match the market.

With the UK outside the EU: Chocolate manufacturer has two sets of rules to follow: one for EU bound chocolate and one for Chocolate to be sold domestically in the UK. Although the UK's politicians have valiantly and courageously fought to "take back control", most of the Chocolate made at this factory is not bound for the UK, so is following the EU regulations anyway. Once the EU bound Chocolate leaves the UK, it will no longer be entering the EU from a Member State. With a hard Brexit and no Free Trade Agreement between the UK and EU a tariff will be charged. The tariff is 35.00% for White Chocolate and 43.00% for Chocolate containing Cocoa. It will be very hard to compete with Belgian, Austrian or Italian Chocolate producers with a tariff of 43.00%.

Aesma wrote:
What I wonder is what will happen to the left-right political spectrum in Brexit Britain, will poor people realize that their fate is mostly due to the rich ruling their country, not the EU ?


One think to worry about is if Scotland becomes independent. Without the Scottish seats in parliament, what's left of the UK will be strangled for generations by a Tory majority.


agill wrote:
A funny consequence of the chaos of brexit is that the right wing extremist party in Sweden has dropped the demand for us to leave.

At least Brexit is having one positive effect!
First to fly the 787-9
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:20 pm

Arion640 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
That recent BBC documentary on the lead up to Brexit threw some very interesting light on this... In effect, the Lib Dems were in fact keeping things under control while Cameron was posturing about migration and referendums to keep his own party intact. And - get this - the suggestion was that Cameron *wanted* the Lib Dems to stay in coalition after the election to prevent Brexit (and they would take the blame).

Winning the election actually screwed up his plans as everything spiralled out of control.


Ahh yes, you make it sound those sorts of cunning plans are isolated to brexit and the UK. It happens all over the world.


So?!?

That affects the point how? ... I don't expect an actual answer to that.

Edit: "you make it sound those sorts of cunning plans are isolated to brexit and the UK" - no I didn't - at all - and it had never even occurred to me. The fact that *YOU interpret it that way* speaks volumes...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:15 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
That recent BBC documentary on the lead up to Brexit threw some very interesting light on this... In effect, the Lib Dems were in fact keeping things under control while Cameron was posturing about migration and referendums to keep his own party intact. And - get this - the suggestion was that Cameron *wanted* the Lib Dems to stay in coalition after the election to prevent Brexit (and they would take the blame).

Winning the election actually screwed up his plans as everything spiralled out of control.


Ahh yes, you make it sound those sorts of cunning plans are isolated to brexit and the UK. It happens all over the world.


So?!?

That affects the point how? ... I don't expect an actual answer to that.

Edit: "you make it sound those sorts of cunning plans are isolated to brexit and the UK" - no I didn't - at all - and it had never even occurred to me. The fact that *YOU interpret it that way* speaks volumes...


Lets take back control.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:05 pm

Arion640 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Ahh yes, you make it sound those sorts of cunning plans are isolated to brexit and the UK. It happens all over the world.


So?!?

That affects the point how? ... I don't expect an actual answer to that.

Edit: "you make it sound those sorts of cunning plans are isolated to brexit and the UK" - no I didn't - at all - and it had never even occurred to me. The fact that *YOU interpret it that way* speaks volumes...


Lets take back control.


Com'on man, you are better than these hollow phrases, 2,5years of discussions and still this. :roll:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 117
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:05 pm

A101 wrote:
In the UK context, yes
But you don't go to the trouble of letting the people decide then tell them to Jake off, that's just asking for trouble at the next general election. if you have no intentions of implementing the result don't ask for a referendum there are other ways of gauging public opinion


Well we agree with that, there should never have been a referedum. Most lucid people agree it was utterly stupid. But there was, one side cheated and broke spending rules, with tons of dodgy stories about influence from people with vested interest, fines being slapped out left right and centre and the Police and Electoral Comission investigating. This is not a valid result and should be ignored.

I'd rather the backlash from it being cancelled than the stupidity of a No Deal.


A101 wrote:
Get ya hand off it, they broke the rules on over spend due to technicalities ie joining campaigns. what happened in this referendum campaign is nothing short of what happens in a general election, promise you the world and give you nothing in return. not much different from pork barrelling


I don't agree. This doesn't happen in a normal general election, there has never been this level of illegal activity in an election. Yes people lie to gain votes, but not in combination with all the nonsense with Cambridge Analytica, Aaron Banks etc. It's completely irrelvent if it was a technicality or not, the law is the law surrounding elections and referendums. When you look at all the polls leading up to the vote there is a very clear and concise coleration between the money spent on online ads and the leave vote. Where that money came from is vitally important to know because it swayed the result.

We moan at other countries when it's clear their elections are not free and fair, but when it happens in your own back yard it's brushed aside because....well i'm at a loss to explain it any more.


Arion640 wrote:
Lets take back control.


We never lost it to gain it back, we were at the heart of making the rules and the EU project.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:16 pm

The debate is quite pointless. There will be a Brexit and it will be hard, as there is no capable opposition to it.

Corbyn is as anti-EU as the any of the Tories.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntury.html
 
WIederling
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:42 pm

Dutchy wrote:
agill wrote:
A funny consequence of the chaos of brexit is that the right wing extremist party in Sweden has dropped the demand for us to leave.


The PVV in the Netherlands doesn't speak about Nexit anymore, but it is still official policy. Because of Brexit the EU seems to be more popular in the remaining EU.


Same move from the AfD in Germany.
They dropped it as an immediate objective. ( though they did not change their long term view) .. and back to DeutschMark, Horray!
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:48 pm

seahawk wrote:
The debate is quite pointless. There will be a Brexit and it will be hard, as there is no capable opposition to it.

Corbyn is as anti-EU as the any of the Tories.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntury.html


Labor is as devided as the Torries.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
WIederling
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:31 pm

"No majority either way."

isn't this the core issue?
Brexit no longer needs an active majority to proceed
but a majority to be stopped.
walloping in fragmentation no decision will happen and
things will come apart around their heads ( and ours too ).
Murphy is an optimist
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:43 pm

Well, it does mean I have one thing to look forward to.

The break up of the Act of Union signalling the final death of the British Empire and the slide of England into being a small bit-part nation. Its somewhat ironic that it is the "rule britannia" bunch that is leading the way.

Although, if I'd a choice, I'd prefer the death throes to be more dramatic and the "rule britannia" mob to be gurning and moaning about it. Well - maybe that'll be happening when Ireland unites and Scotland secedes.


Daily Mail, The Sun, The Mirror, The Express... shove it up your...
 
KLDC10
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:41 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Well, it does mean I have one thing to look forward to.

The break up of the Act of Union signalling the final death of the British Empire and the slide of England into being a small bit-part nation. Its somewhat ironic that it is the "rule britannia" bunch that is leading the way.

Although, if I'd a choice, I'd prefer the death throes to be more dramatic and the "rule britannia" mob to be gurning and moaning about it. Well - maybe that'll be happening when Ireland unites and Scotland secedes.


Daily Mail, The Sun, The Mirror, The Express... shove it up your...


Not going to happen, much as you may wish it to be true.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:48 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Well, it does mean I have one thing to look forward to.

The break up of the Act of Union signalling the final death of the British Empire and the slide of England into being a small bit-part nation. Its somewhat ironic that it is the "rule britannia" bunch that is leading the way.

Although, if I'd a choice, I'd prefer the death throes to be more dramatic and the "rule britannia" mob to be gurning and moaning about it. Well - maybe that'll be happening when Ireland unites and Scotland secedes.


Daily Mail, The Sun, The Mirror, The Express... shove it up your...


Not going to happen, much as you may wish it to be true.



Don't wish for the UK to break-up, but I think this might lead to the break-up of the UK. I think 50% chance, which is a lot.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:29 pm

Reinhardt wrote:

I don't agree. This doesn't happen in a normal general election, there has never been this level of illegal activity in an election. Yes people lie to gain votes, but not in combination with all the nonsense with Cambridge Analytica, Aaron Banks etc. It's completely irrelvent if it was a technicality or not, the law is the law surrounding elections and referendums. When you look at all the polls leading up to the vote there is a very clear and concise coleration between the money spent on online ads and the leave vote. Where that money came from is vitally important to know because it swayed the result.

We moan at other countries when it's clear their elections are not free and fair, but when it happens in your own back yard it's brushed aside because....well i'm at a loss to explain it any more.


The technicality was In the collusion between the official campaign and private entity, because they consulted with one another they deemed the lot as the official campaign.Either way the money was going to be spent by contributions by the leave campaign or private entity.

Yep they broke the rules and it has had repercussions, but was the actual vote rigged to gain a certain result? NO

The views held by "Cambridge Analytica, Aaron Banks etc" are their right to have just the same as anyone can express their point of view, just because you don't agree with it doesn't mean they cant say it. There is no way of stopping advertisement and editorial comment its just not possible if a private entity wishes to pay for it or say it and media report it.

The reason leave got up at all was the apathy in the younger vote not registering to vote and vote
Last edited by A101 on Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:34 pm

Dutchy wrote:


Don't wish for the UK to break-up, but I think this might lead to the break-up of the UK. I think 50% chance, which is a lot.


I think its inevitable, the UK is totally divided and the only way to stop the division partly is give the rise to succession a referendum throughout the kingdom.
 
jcancel
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:04 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ce-as-high

18 to 24 turnout was 64% while over 65s was 90%

The initial belief that the former was 36% was wrong.

A101 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:

I don't agree. This doesn't happen in a normal general election, there has never been this level of illegal activity in an election. Yes people lie to gain votes, but not in combination with all the nonsense with Cambridge Analytica, Aaron Banks etc. It's completely irrelvent if it was a technicality or not, the law is the law surrounding elections and referendums. When you look at all the polls leading up to the vote there is a very clear and concise coleration between the money spent on online ads and the leave vote. Where that money came from is vitally important to know because it swayed the result.

We moan at other countries when it's clear their elections are not free and fair, but when it happens in your own back yard it's brushed aside because....well i'm at a loss to explain it any more.


The technicality was In the collusion between the official campaign and private entity, because they consulted with one another they deemed the lot as the official campaign.Either way the money was going to be spent by contributions by the leave campaign or private entity.

Yep they broke the rules and it has had repercussions, but was the actual vote rigged to gain a certain result? NO

The views held by "Cambridge Analytica, Aaron Banks etc" are their right to have just the same as anyone can express their point of view, just because you don't agree with it doesn't mean they cant say it. There is no way of stopping advertisement and editorial comment its just not possible if a private entity wishes to pay for it or say it and media report it.

The reason leave got up at all was the apathy in the younger vote not registering to vote and vote
 
jcancel
Posts: 133
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:35 pm

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:16 pm

1. Pressure the Labour Party to do a sudden emergency leadership challenge
2. Labour Remainers should visit Labour Brexiteer towns, first to persuade (then to give up Brexit), like this https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-e ... KKBN1I517Z

In Tory retiree towns they can protest Gandhi style by blocking roads/ shops

seahawk wrote:
The debate is quite pointless. There will be a Brexit and it will be hard, as there is no capable opposition to it.

Corbyn is as anti-EU as the any of the Tories.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntury.html
 
KLDC10
Posts: 1264
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:24 pm

jcancel wrote:
1. Pressure the Labour Party to do a sudden emergency leadership challenge
2. Labour Remainers should visit Labour Brexiteer towns, first to persuade (then to give up Brexit), like this https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-e ... KKBN1I517Z

In Tory retiree towns they can protest Gandhi style by blocking roads/ shops

seahawk wrote:
The debate is quite pointless. There will be a Brexit and it will be hard, as there is no capable opposition to it.

Corbyn is as anti-EU as the any of the Tories.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntury.html


That won't work. The Labour Party already tried to get rid of Corbyn shortly after the Referendum and failed.
DC9/MD90/MD11/F70/BAE146
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jcancel
Posts: 133
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:19 am

I do wonder if, closer to No Deal, the momentum would be different?

KLDC10 wrote:
jcancel wrote:
1. Pressure the Labour Party to do a sudden emergency leadership challenge
2. Labour Remainers should visit Labour Brexiteer towns, first to persuade (then to give up Brexit), like this https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-e ... KKBN1I517Z

In Tory retiree towns they can protest Gandhi style by blocking roads/ shops

seahawk wrote:
The debate is quite pointless. There will be a Brexit and it will be hard, as there is no capable opposition to it.

Corbyn is as anti-EU as the any of the Tories.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntury.html


That won't work. The Labour Party already tried to get rid of Corbyn shortly after the Referendum and failed.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 1944
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:27 am

KLDC10 wrote:
Not going to happen, much as you may wish it to be true.


None of us have ever seen the depression a no-deal Brexit will bring on.

You think 2009 was bad? Even a well handled non-customs union exit will be worse.


Why would the Scots or (Northern) Irish not seek to leave the UK if it meant being able to get back into the single largest market bloc in the developed world? The UK could be 10+ years away from having access to anything that even begins to resemble a shadow of the same.

Can you give any solid reasons please?
 
WIederling
Posts: 8230
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:42 am

A101 wrote:
The views held by "Cambridge Analytica, Aaron Banks etc" are their right to have just the same as anyone can express their point of view, just because you don't agree with it doesn't mean they cant say it. There is no way of stopping advertisement and editorial comment its just not possible if a private entity wishes to pay for it or say it and media report it.


Politics is public. ( The reason why party funds in Germany are tightly controlled and their flow must be reported.
In this context starting a private campaign to the benefit of one party or other is seen as "funding" and must be reported as received funds by that party.)

The moment you start select personal invisible to other voters communications to voter groups
to vie them ( positive or negative ) you break the democratic system of building consent.

It is naive to shrug this off.

Both Brexit and Trump seem to have been voted in on volatile emotions of the moment.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:09 am

This is a good idea:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 87050.html

However, I would not expect the DUP to agree to it as it will show their position to be completely unrepresentative of the wishes of the majority.


[Unsurprisingly, the suggestion did not come from a politican.]
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:14 am

Amiga500 wrote:
This is a good idea:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 87050.html

However, I would not expect the DUP to agree to it as it will show their position to be completely unrepresentative of the wishes of the majority.


[Unsurprisingly, the suggestion did not come from a politican.]


Again too British centric - as the GFA not only grants rights to the residents of NI, but also to the citizens of the RoI. And in that scenario the citizens of the RoI would get no say in the future form of the border.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:20 am

seahawk wrote:
Again too British centric - as the GFA not only grants rights to the residents of NI, but also to the citizens of the RoI. And in that scenario the citizens of the RoI would get no say in the future form of the border.


True, true.

However, I think the vast majority in the South want the border to be open, and the vast majority in the North want the border to be open. I cannot envisage a scenario when the people here would vote to close the border.

Basically, I see it as a way of Westminster bypassing the DUP's intransigence and May possibly being able to bite off a chunk of tories who would not agree to the backstop as it sits.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:44 am

Amiga500 wrote:
True, true.

However, I think the vast majority in the South want the border to be open, and the vast majority in the North want the border to be open. I cannot envisage a scenario when the people here would vote to close the border.

Basically, I see it as a way of Westminster bypassing the DUP's intransigence and May possibly being able to bite off a chunk of tories who would not agree to the backstop as it sits.


The ROI have already ruled out a time limited backstop, so this is a non-starter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46096288

Given that a technological solution is not available the choices available to have no border in Ireland are:

1) Border in the North Sea (unacceptable to DUP and many Tories)
2) Theresa Mays Withdrawal Agreement (not acceptable to House of Commons)
3) Single Market & Customs Union (not acceptable to hard line Tories, or Theresa Mays "red lines" interpretation of referendum)
4) No Brexit (acceptable to me :D )
 
Amiga500
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:46 am

The DUP have (unsurprisingly) also ruled out the referendum idea.

The backstop would not be time limited - it would be put to referendum every 5 years (more practically, could be done alongside each Westminster election) - so in theory (and likely practice) - would continue ad infinitum.
 
kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:46 am

A101 wrote:
I've said that a few times now, but at the end of the day Cameron didn't do his due diligence he could of stacked the deck on this in his favour

Cameron didn't say it was law he said he will respect the will of the people, but stepped down to let someone else do the dirty work. TM doesn't believe in it either


I've always wondered whether the Welsh, NI and (particularly) the Scottish governments should have insisted that the votes be weighted; with most of the UK's population being in England, an English vote to leave the EU would have outweighed (and of course, did outweigh) the wishes of NI and Scotland (the Welsh voted to leave anyway); both NI and Scotland should have sought assurances to prevent this happening and to challenge the Westminster Govt to come up with a clear answer as to what would happen and if not satisfied, they should have stated publicly that there would be no referendum in Scotland and NI and any UK vote would not have any effect outside England/Wales. Could Westminster have insisted on a vote?

Of course, it's a case of "coulda, shoulda, woulda", but certainly posing these questions in advance - particularly about NI - would have avoided a lot of what is happening at the moment. Clearly, very little attention was paid to the consequences of Brexit for NI.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:51 am

Amiga500 wrote:
The DUP have (unsurprisingly) also ruled out the referendum idea.

The backstop would not be time limited - it would be put to referendum every 5 years (more practically, could be done alongside each Westminster election) - so in theory (and likely practice) - would continue ad infinitum.


per BBC link in my previous post:

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he also said that the outcome of a review could not involve a unilateral decision to end the backstop.

"He recalled the prior commitments made that the backstop must apply 'unless and until' alternative arrangements are agreed,

In other words the suggestion would not work as it fails in two key areas :

1) it is unilateral (based on a referendum in NI) and
2) would not involve any alternative arrangements to replace the backstop
 
WIederling
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:55 am

Amiga500 wrote:
However, I think the vast majority in the South want the border to be open, and the vast majority in the North want the border to be open. I cannot envisage a scenario when the people here would vote to close the border.


Bismark: Your Majesty had a two way either/or solution offered. Your Majesty chose the third.

The choice is with NI ( and thus the UK ) and a negative one : what is less less liked. A border RI||NI or a border NI||England,Wales, Scotland.. With NI the way it is both solutions will turn catastrophic.
Murphy is an optimist
 
KLDC10
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:00 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
Not going to happen, much as you may wish it to be true.


None of us have ever seen the depression a no-deal Brexit will bring on.

You think 2009 was bad? Even a well handled non-customs union exit will be worse.


Why would the Scots or (Northern) Irish not seek to leave the UK if it meant being able to get back into the single largest market bloc in the developed world? The UK could be 10+ years away from having access to anything that even begins to resemble a shadow of the same.

Can you give any solid reasons please?


For one thing, they're not going to be given the opportunity. I believe it was made quite clear that the Scottish Independence Referendum was a once in a generation thing. I might also add that it was conducted in the full knowledge that the Conservative Party would offer an in/out Referendum on Britain's membership of the EU if they won the next election. The 2016 Referendum was a nationwide vote in which the electorates of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted as one - those were the terms, Scotland is not being dragged out of the EU against its will.

Your point about a depression is pure conjecture. In fact, from the most recent economic indicators, it is the Eurozone, not the UK, which is heading for a recession. Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... austerity/
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Dutchy
Posts: 8087
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:24 pm

kaitak wrote:
A101 wrote:
I've said that a few times now, but at the end of the day Cameron didn't do his due diligence he could of stacked the deck on this in his favour

Cameron didn't say it was law he said he will respect the will of the people, but stepped down to let someone else do the dirty work. TM doesn't believe in it either


I've always wondered whether the Welsh, NI and (particularly) the Scottish governments should have insisted that the votes be weighted; with most of the UK's population being in England, an English vote to leave the EU would have outweighed (and of course, did outweigh) the wishes of NI and Scotland (the Welsh voted to leave anyway); both NI and Scotland should have sought assurances to prevent this happening and to challenge the Westminster Govt to come up with a clear answer as to what would happen and if not satisfied, they should have stated publicly that there would be no referendum in Scotland and NI and any UK vote would not have any effect outside England/Wales. Could Westminster have insisted on a vote?

Of course, it's a case of "coulda, shoulda, woulda", but certainly posing these questions in advance - particularly about NI - would have avoided a lot of what is happening at the moment. Clearly, very little attention was paid to the consequences of Brexit for NI.


I think nobody actually believed that the UK population would vote leave, including the vocal leave proponents:Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson (and many leave voters actually). So this scenario wasn't one they actually contemplated, but yet here we are. And now we are on track to a hard Brexit which means it is more likely that the United Kingdom will cease to exist as we know it. That's why I call people pushing for a hard Brexit, extremist, whatever the cost they want to push for Brexit and the cost are huge, up to and including the possibility of breaking up their country. For me it is mindboggling, but that's just me.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 8087
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:27 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
Not going to happen, much as you may wish it to be true.


None of us have ever seen the depression a no-deal Brexit will bring on.

You think 2009 was bad? Even a well handled non-customs union exit will be worse.


Why would the Scots or (Northern) Irish not seek to leave the UK if it meant being able to get back into the single largest market bloc in the developed world? The UK could be 10+ years away from having access to anything that even begins to resemble a shadow of the same.

Can you give any solid reasons please?


For one thing, they're not going to be given the opportunity. I believe it was made quite clear that the Scottish Independence Referendum was a once in a generation thing. I might also add that it was conducted in the full knowledge that the Conservative Party would offer an in/out Referendum on Britain's membership of the EU if they won the next election. The 2016 Referendum was a nationwide vote in which the electorates of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted as one - those were the terms, Scotland is not being dragged out of the EU against its will.

Your point about a depression is pure conjecture. In fact, from the most recent economic indicators, it is the Eurozone, not the UK, which is heading for a recession. Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... austerity/


I think there will be another vote on a Scottish referendum, certainly if Northern Ireland is granted one. Fundamental things have changed since the last referendum, so it would be fair to grand them one.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!

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