Time for fresh fun

Just Scotland? We should welcome Northern Ireland too, once they come knocking.
Wales... mmm.. they voted to leave, but we still welcome their jobs I guess...

Best regards
Thomas

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1406417

SQ22 wrote:

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1406417

Thanks

tommy1808 wrote:

Just Scotland? We should welcome Northern Ireland too, once they come knocking.
Wales... mmm.. they voted to leave, but we still welcome their jobs I guess...

Best regards
Thomas

Well if NI joins it will be an Ireland reunification. And I can't see a GFA's referendum before several years. Wales is totally absorbed in England so maybe but not before along time.

Olddog wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

Just Scotland? We should welcome Northern Ireland too, once they come knocking.
Wales... mmm.. they voted to leave, but we still welcome their jobs I guess...

Best regards
Thomas

Well if NI joins it will be an Ireland reunification. And I can't see a GFA's referendum before several years. Wales is totally absorbed in England so maybe but not before along time.

Oh yes, for sure.
Funny thing... as long as the UK was a EU member, there was zero chance of any part of the UK leaving the kingdom, and joining the EU.
It would seem that is about to change in a couple of weeks.

Best regards
Thomas

I don't understand why some users here appear to be revelling in the extremely unlikely prospect of the United Kingdom breaking up? It isn't going to happen any more than Catalonia is going to break away from Spain.

KLDC10 wrote:

I don't understand why some users here appear to be revelling in the extremely unlikely prospect of the United Kingdom breaking up? It isn't going to happen any more than Catalonia is going to break away from Spain.

The Scottish independence movement is kinda strong....
Are you certain that their vote would not have been different if there had been a clear and direct way for them to stay in the EU after independence?
How many "no" votes where due to the EU making clear that out of the UK means out of the EU loud and clear in the days leading up to the referendum in 2014.

Northern Ireland reuniting with the republic also seems to be more a matter of when, not if. When may be ling ways off, it Brexit likely pulls that date in, depending on how hard the Brexit will be.

Best regards
Thomas

If you have a look at the demography in Northern Ireland you will see that the reunification will be unavoidable after some years.

For Scotland, if you remember the campaign before the independence vote, most of the UK scaremongering was about blocking Scotland out of EU, and if I remember well they went so far that they lowered the vote age to 16 (the most pro EU population).

You should keep in mind that the UK has strange rules for voting that can change between referendum.

tommy1808 wrote:

The Scottish independence movement is kinda strong....

Except it isn't. Only the SNP give a toss about it (single issue party)....and they're going to get another kicking in the next round of elections, since it's the only thing they give a toss about. They failed at gaining independence, and they're failing miserably at everything else. Of course that's Westminster's fault, not theirs, even though they have control....ooh that sounds familiar!

KLDC10 wrote:

I don't understand why some users here appear to be revelling in the extremely unlikely prospect of the United Kingdom breaking up? It isn't going to happen any more than Catalonia is going to break away from Spain.

Catalonia's independence is effectively blocked by Spain then certainly vetoing Catalonia's accession to the EU, the same as the UK would have vetoed Scotland's accession, which was the decisive factor in the scottish independence vote failing the last time – before Brexit turned the promise of Scotland staying in the EU via the UK into a lie!

With the UK having left the EU, Scotland will be free to rejoin the EU without an applicable veto, and if Spain was crazy enough to exit the EU, so would Catalonia.

Northern Ireland is a special case since the GFA has its own built-in accession mechanism via border poll if the population wants it. The Republic of Ireland will almost certainly accept re-unification and the EU has basically pre-approved it in the GFA.

And it's not just changing demographics shifting the majority there, but the protestant/loyalist community may not necessarily be quite as opposed to re-unification with an increasingly less papist and more liberal Republic as well, particularly if the NI status quo is being dragged towards the insanities of the DUP and hard Brexit.

If Brexit is going poorly, that could make an EU re-accession via re-unification look like an increasingly tempting option even for formerly loyalist NI residents, especially younger people with less factional allegiance...

The United Kingdom of the 1600s is re-established!!! ROI has already left, Scotland and North Ireland leave to join the EU, Wales reluctantly goes. The City of London (later rejoined by the SE of England) goes. What's left of England bedraggles itself ashore in Dunkirk and is given refuge status. There is an endless, pointless, and no passion ongoing argument as to what to call it, where to put the capital - King Harry just calls it Albion and announces no government necessary, EU rules rule until such time as all of Albion could agree. Like deposed despots in failed governments he carefully moves weekly so as to ensure there is no center of the kingdom. Elected members of the various pieces are allowed to meet and make their various proposal - it is safe, none of them need to be fact related or have any possibility of ever approaching consensus. Everyone lives happily ever after.

New name—Mercia and Wessex, can the Danelaw return?

GF

ChrisKen wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

The Scottish independence movement is kinda strong....

Except it isn't.

If voting to leave falls only 5% short of winning, the movement behind it is strong. That the party promoting it actively isn't doesn't change that.

Best regards
Thomas

Scottish independence is a fools dream. The merger of NI and ROI would be likely be a good for citizens of both of them. NI and ROI are more removed than other as to religious attachment in parts as people become more educated, the sexual scandals of the Roman Catholic Church and demographics. Who knows, maybe by the anniversary of 100 years of political division of the island will finally end. Meanwhile the Good Friday Accords of 20 years ago that phased out many of the border, trade and other divisions conflict with Brexit. Perhaps something will have to be done by the EC to recognize this special situation but I am not sure what that could be.

ltbewr wrote:

Perhaps something will have to be done by the EC to recognize this special situation but I am not sure what that could be.

The EU did it already by proposing to have NI in the customs union and set the border in the Irish Sea. I can't think that the EU would propose to do this for the USA or any other sovereign state

LJ wrote:

ltbewr wrote:

Perhaps something will have to be done by the EC to recognize this special situation but I am not sure what that could be.

The EU did it already by proposing to have NI in the customs union and set the border in the Irish Sea. I can't think that the EU would propose to do this for the USA or any other sovereign state

Indeed!
I understand it may 'feel' to many in Britain like the EU is carving up the UK, but it's because:
1- the proposal is so extremely generous, that
2- it can't be replicated to the whole of the UK.

CU membership (+ full SM acces) on a completely cost free basis is an offer nobody has even had in the past and nobody ever will in future either, not even Mrs Tatcher in her best days as PM: it was made solely and uniquely to solve the NI problem, but the DUP turned it down because of the perceived carving out of NI from the rest of the UK, while TM stupidly thought she could somehow extend it to the whole of the UK as a solution around their opposition.

Olddog wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

Just Scotland? We should welcome Northern Ireland too, once they come knocking.
Wales... mmm.. they voted to leave, but we still welcome their jobs I guess...

Best regards
Thomas

Well if NI joins it will be an Ireland reunification. And I can't see a GFA's referendum before several years. Wales is totally absorbed in England so maybe but not before along time.

This post shows how little you really know.

Wales is a separate country just like Scotland, while there would be civil war in Northern Ireland before a unification attempt with the Republic.

Come on Richard where are you? As a passionate Brit you should be correcting all this, just as you do to me!

As for Scotland they’ve had their vote. Next general election the SNP in the house of commons will be diminished to what it once was. You can see how support has diminished when Alex Salmond wasn’t even re elected in 2017.

Arion640 wrote:

there would be civil war in Northern Ireland before a unification attempt with the Republic.
.

As outlined by another poster above, you might well be surprised. The Republic has changed a lot; the RC Church is but a shadow of what it once was and the religious differences are really not very relevant to the younger population on both sides of the border.

NI voted to remain by a decent majority. The DUP was actually quite frustrated when an NI business group had the temerity to point out that they were quite in favour of Theresa May's deal. They misread their own population. There will, undoubtedly, be a hardcore which will oppose unification, but at the end of the day, people will vote with their pockets. As the Americans would say, "it's the economy, stupid" ... Brexit will show the reality of what NI means to the UK at large. It hardly got a mention during the referendum debate in 2016. Now, of course, they're all against the backstop and saying how valuable the union was, but they see NI as a piece of land on a map, not really as a population. They don't really care that much about the population there, nor the effect on them of Brexit.

People worry here about whether there will be a hard border. There won't be. The cost of building, maintaining a hard border along where the border now lies would be massive and given that the UK economy is going to get such a sucker-punch as a result of Brexit, do you really think they'll want to commit to the prohibitive cost of this - especially when they'll probably have to erect a border between Scotland and England. Brexit will effectively result in an all Ireland economy long before there is actually a vote for a United Ireland; by the time that happens, the vast majority of NI trade will pass through Dublin, not the UK, London or any other port.

A recent UK comedy show about UK politics invented the word "omnishambles" ... hard to think of a better word to describe what Britain faces after Brexit.

Given the increasingly likelihood of the UK breaking up and weighing it up against the possibility of not leaving the EU and having another referendum, I wonder what Brexiteers would choose?

kaitak wrote:

Given the increasingly likelihood of the UK breaking up and weighing it up against the possibility of not leaving the EU and having another referendum, I wonder what Brexiteers would choose?

The upper class hardcore Brexiteers only want one thing: Get rid of “Brussels” and taking back control. They don’t give a sh.t about Joe Average, just want to replay history...

The population wants the Brexit, and it seems like May finally has the right ideas, like asking Ireland to either abandon the EU or eat the hard border. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/govern ... xit-plan-b

Furthermore the UK is outperforming the economies of France Italy and Germany by a huge margin, while they are deep into a recession and can not afford a hard Brexit. Liam Fox is right in that.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... esson.html

So in the end Britain can afford the WTO Brexit and will still prosper, the EU will be destroyed in that case, with the major nations in an economic crisis and the population already tired of the EU.

seahawk wrote:

The population wants the Brexit, and it seems like May finally has the right ideas, like asking Ireland to either abandon the UK or eat the hard border. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/govern ... xit-plan-b

Furthermore the UK is outperforming the economies of France Italy and Germany by a huge margin, while they are deep into a recession and can not afford a hard Brexit. Liam Fox is right in that.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... esson.html

So in the end Britain can afford the WTO Brexit and will still prosper, the EU will be destroyed in that case, with the major nations in an economic crisis and the population already tired of the EU.

Meanwhile, Putin approves of all this. How the hell are as many brits as dumb as americans? We both fell for propaganda damaging to our nations and the western alliances only Russia could feel threatened by.

seahawk wrote:

The population wants the Brexit, and it seems like May finally has the right ideas, like asking Ireland to either abandon the EU or eat the hard border. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/govern ... xit-plan-b

After a weekend of talking to opposition parties and trying to build a majority around a workable plan, TM learnt -much to her own surprise and shock it seems- that she was bound to have to give up pretty much all of her self-imposed red lines to win over opposition votes, so the Tories have now once again started negotiating with themselves and are said to have come up with the new and magnificent idea to lift the backstop out of the WA with the EU27 and write it into the bilateral GFA with just the RoI instead.

Only a few little problems remain with that, however:
1- the EU doesn't want to renegotiate the WA, let alone drop the legally binding backstop from it
2- the bilateral GFA isn't alterable unless the RoI agrees to it, and they don't want to touch it either and for a good reason (see c- below)
3- a 'no hard border clause', regardless where it is written into, still entails the legal requirement for identical custom arrangements at both sides of the border
4- that means no independent trade policy whatsoever for the UK then, unless NI is given a special status within the UK, something the DUP doesn't want.

In short: this new idea doesn't solve the catch 22 problem of the Irish border, it simply avoids having to consider it for the vote on the WA so the transition period can start and the government can start to negotiate the final trade deal with the EU, a negotiation which will still face the same intractable problem:
a- remaining in a permanent CU and SM relationship with the EU because of the open border in NI,
b- give up NI to the RoI,
c- unilaterally renegade on the GFA.
Since a- and b- are politically unacceptable to the UK government, that leaves only c- as a future way out for the UK if all those red lines of TM can not be wiped out. Only thing is: of course the RoI has already long understood that the Tory government is heading for that inevitable outcome just to save its face on the red lines and is far more easily going to walk away from a single bilateral agreement like the GFA with a smaller country like the RoI, than from a firm WA with 27 other EU members which together are the biggest trading power the UK faces and without which it can not even start sorting out its all important future relationship with the EU and by definition thus also not with the rest of the world!

I have a feeling that once it is understood by the UK side too the RoI isn't just going to give away the EU27's unconditional political backing, the next proposal from the Tories is going to be to simply ask the RoI to leave the EU too or something? Or better still: rejoin the UK again!

It's high time Westminster takes back control of Brexit, because clearly Nr. 10 and the Conservatives have run out of workable ideas to solve their mess and are living in cloud cuckoo-land!

Come on, this is a totally different approach. From fairies and unicorns to Leprechauns and unicorns, still mixed with the traditional "they need us more than we need them" spice.

Arion640 wrote:

Olddog wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

Just Scotland? We should welcome Northern Ireland too, once they come knocking.
Wales... mmm.. they voted to leave, but we still welcome their jobs I guess...

Best regards
Thomas

Well if NI joins it will be an Ireland reunification. And I can't see a GFA's referendum before several years. Wales is totally absorbed in England so maybe but not before along time.

This post shows how little you really know.

Wales is a separate country just like Scotland, while there would be civil war in Northern Ireland before a unification attempt with the Republic.

Come on Richard where are you? As a passionate Brit you should be correcting all this, just as you do to me!

As for Scotland they’ve had their vote. Next general election the SNP in the house of commons will be diminished to what it once was. You can see how support has diminished when Alex Salmond wasn’t even re elected in 2017.

I've been away for the weekend Arion640... I'm not here all the time!

1. Wales relationship has historically been closer to England than that of Scotland, and it is only really from 2006 that Wales has had its own powers similar to those of Scotland. Prior to the creation of the Welsh Assembly the laws for Wales applied jointly to both England & Wales. I would agree with Olddog that such a breakaway is not likely in the near future, but who knows longer term, especially in the light of Hard Brexit and Northern Ireland and Scotland deciding their own paths? Unlikely but not impossible.
2. Scotland could call for a new referendum, but it is up to London whether this goes ahead. It is ironic that Scotland does not have its own Article 50 type provisions to break away from the UK and a time and manner of its own choosing. As to which way a vote would go (if allowed by Westminster) your guess is as good as mine, but I would not confuse Scottish or national elections with a future referendum result, just as the 2017 UK General Election did not concur the views on EU membership or reflect the 2016 EU referendum.
3. The Good Friday Agreement allows for a "Border Poll", which is essentially a right to a referendum throughout ROI and Northern Ireland to review their future and consider re-unification.
   
   The UK's secretary of state has the power to call a Border Poll "‘if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."
   
   So there is a legal framework already in place to allow Northern Ireland to re-unify should it choose to do so. Yes there would be possible ramifications of such a move, but this political structure is already in place and has already been approved by public referendums in both ROI and Northern Ireland.

So as far as the future of the United Kingdom is concerned nothing may happen, or everything may happen, or something in between!

With all this it is so Ironic that the full name of the Tory Party is the "Conservative and Unionist party". Their stated objectives are to maintain the Union, yet their current policy it would appear is encouraging the exact opposite....

seahawk wrote:

Furthermore the UK is outperforming the economies of France Italy and Germany by a huge margin, while they are deep into a recession and can not afford a hard Brexit. Liam Fox is right in that.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... esson.html

Depressing reading. But at least some of the comments have a grasp of reality:

Britain is just seen as the drunk in the pub on a Friday night. The EU's only objective is to see Britain off the premises without any serious damage.

Sums it up...

I found this reasoning in the comments section very convincing.

"The Eurovision Song Contest tells us[UK] everything we need to know about how the rest of Europe feels about us[British], even when we do have a reasonable singer we get zero points!!! There might be short term disruption but in the bigger picture we can flourish. Don't underestimate the British People!"

seahawk wrote:

I found this reasoning in the comments section very convincing.

"The Eurovision Song Contest tells us[UK] everything we need to know about how the rest of Europe feels about us[British], even when we do have a reasonable singer we get zero points!!! There might be short term disruption but in the bigger picture we can flourish. Don't underestimate the British People!"

Oh well that's it then. Sign me up for WTO or (and?) bust.

Sad but also hilarious: 26% of the people Sky asked think "No Deal #Brexit" means we #RemainInTheEU.

Olddog wrote:

Sad but also hilarious: 26% of the people Sky asked think "No Deal #Brexit" means we #RemainInTheEU.

Oh boy........ After 2,5years of talking about it, they still don't know.....

seahawk wrote:

I found this reasoning in the comments section very convincing.

"The Eurovision Song Contest tells us[UK] everything we need to know about how the rest of Europe feels about us[British], even when we do have a reasonable singer we get zero points!!! There might be short term disruption but in the bigger picture we can flourish. Don't underestimate the British People!"

You forget to mention:
- driving the wrong side of the road;
- imperial standard in stead of metric;
- their breakfast...
- still haven’t discovered sun protector
- etc...

Olddog wrote:

Sad but also hilarious: 26% of the people Sky asked think "No Deal #Brexit" means we #RemainInTheEU.

Human stupidity at his best (worst). Mad cow disease 2.0?

Time for another, new thread: "Brexit part 6: The IRA is back"?

And meanwhile, John Bercow is becoming sort of a hero on the continent with numerous articles portraying him.

Today, a not 100 per cent serious article in Germany's equivalent to Newsweek was musing about John Bercow being the ideal EU Commission's president. They came up with a perfect solution: "Breturn". A logical second after Brexit, there will be Breturn so the 50 per cent in favour of Brexit will have their will - and the 50 per cent against will have their will as well as after a second outside the EU, the UK will be back in the fold - and the door would be open for Bercow to succeed Junker as the EU Commission's head.

Dieuwer wrote:

Time for another, new thread: "Brexit part 6: The IRA is back"?

No, if this thread is going the same way as the previous, we'll have "Brexit part 6" just before the actual Brexit (or sooner).

Dutchy wrote:

Oh boy........ After 2,5years of talking about it, they still don't know.....

Can you blame them? It's not that the majority of the press is actually informing them. One thing you have to give the Brexiteers credit for is that they manage tpo plant this in the heads of many persons.

seahawk wrote:

"The Eurovision Song Contest tells us[UK] everything we need to know about how the rest of Europe feels about us[British], even when we do have a reasonable singer we get zero points!!! There might be short term disruption but in the bigger picture we can flourish. Don't underestimate the British People!"

When did the UK submit a "reasonable" act lately? Then again, it shows that people don't get their fact straight. The UK received the "zero points" only once (in 2003, long before Brexit).

So plan B is actually plan A with some amendments, vote is next week.

Theresa May has identified what she described as “three key changes” that she claimed that she would be making to her Brexit policy. She did so as she delivered a statement to MPs - something she was obliged to do under the EU Withdrawal Act following the defeat of her plan in the Common last week. (See 5.01pm.) Critics said the changes she identified were ones she has promised before, and that she was not offering MPs anything particularly new, or anything with obvious potential to break the parliamentary deadlock.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... itics-live

LJ wrote:

When did the UK submit a "reasonable" act lately? Then again, it shows that people don't get their fact straight. The UK received the "zero points" only once (in 2003, long before Brexit).

1997.

The Daily Mail comment section is a treasure of well informed Brexiteer knowledge.

"British banks hold an awful lot of repayment loans from Germany France etc., that need to be paid back from June onwards so it will be interesting how their economies hold up when this happens. WTO rules are still active in the uk with all relevant paper work in place so no worries with trade."

"It's becoming increasingly clear that Remain is the un-educated position."

"We should just declare war on France and Germany, we know from history we can beat them! Trump will back us! Out NOW!"

"The EU is a totally unnecessary artificial construct which sits above 27 perfectly capable national governments - I am sure we can all agree on trading and other mutually beneficial projects without the need for 5 unelected presidents, wide reaching ECJ, European Parliament, emblems, flags, army..."

"The simple fact is the biggest players in the EU are trembling at the thought of losing Britain: NOT the reverse. The "smaller" member states are now questioning the wisdom of being led by the nose for so long...especially now that the coffers are looking decidedly barren."

Those are gems, Seahawk.

Richard28 wrote:

With all this it is so Ironic that the full name of the Tory Party is the "Conservative and Unionist party". Their stated objectives are to maintain the Union, yet their current policy it would appear is encouraging the exact opposite....

That's nothing but pretense at this point any more – by far the majority of Tory members don't care at all whether they'll lose NI as long as they get their coveted Brexit.

Dutchy wrote:

So plan B is actually plan A with some amendments, vote is next week.

Theresa May has identified what she described as “three key changes” that she claimed that she would be making to her Brexit policy. She did so as she delivered a statement to MPs - something she was obliged to do under the EU Withdrawal Act following the defeat of her plan in the Common last week. (See 5.01pm.) Critics said the changes she identified were ones she has promised before, and that she was not offering MPs anything particularly new, or anything with obvious potential to break the parliamentary deadlock.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... itics-live

Well as you guys keep saying, there can be no further negotiation and no cherry picking, so so be it!

No deal brexit here we come.

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

So plan B is actually plan A with some amendments, vote is next week.

Theresa May has identified what she described as “three key changes” that she claimed that she would be making to her Brexit policy. She did so as she delivered a statement to MPs - something she was obliged to do under the EU Withdrawal Act following the defeat of her plan in the Common last week. (See 5.01pm.) Critics said the changes she identified were ones she has promised before, and that she was not offering MPs anything particularly new, or anything with obvious potential to break the parliamentary deadlock.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... itics-live

Well as you guys keep saying, there can be no further negotiation and no cherry picking, so so be it!

No deal brexit here we come.

Don't know. Still time. First, we need a divorce bill settled if the back=stop could be the Norwegian model for instance.

Klaus wrote:

Richard28 wrote:

With all this it is so Ironic that the full name of the Tory Party is the "Conservative and Unionist party". Their stated objectives are to maintain the Union, yet their current policy it would appear is encouraging the exact opposite....

That's nothing but pretense at this point any more – by far the majority of Tory members don't care at all whether they'll lose NI as long as they get their coveted Brexit.

Indeed.

A (not so) recent survey found that more Conservatives favoured prioritizing a hard Brexit over keeping the UK intact!

Now, just as on the preferred flavour of Brexit itself, the percentage of voters who support such a controversial stance towards NI amongst Conservatives is not at all representative of the wish of the wider UK voter basis as a whole, but in the UK such does not matter: it's always party above country in normal situations, especially with the Tories.

If TM would hold a comfortable majority of her own in Parliament and not have to rely on the DUP as a confidence and supply partner to prop up her government, the WA would long have been approved and it would have been the one with the first version of the backstop in it in which NI is all but given up by the UK, not the second one which has been voted down last week and where the customs backstop is applied to the whole of the UK in order to solve the DUP's concerns while at the same time anger half of her own party base in England.

TM is really going to have to do what British politicians are completely unfamiliar with: COMPROMISE with the OPPOSITION and build a POPULAR majority.
Or alternative have Parliament do it for her by telling her through a series of motions and laws exactly what she needs to be doing as leader of the executive....

In fact, she'll have to do what is completely normal in any other western democracy where the first past the post electoral system is not used: that is to rely on a popular majority to get anything done and do what the majority of voters want her to do, rather than just rely on and please only her own party basis which may (or in this case may not) very well hold half the seats, but nowhere near half the votes of the people in the country.

The irony of the claim Brexit was about the people taking back control is starting to bite the Brexiteers within the Tory party, doesn't it?
It seems like indeed the PEOPLE are going to be taking charge, not the Party leaders like they themselves thought they could.
Expect her neutral motion to be successfully amended by Parliament to include:
1- the immediate need to seek an extension to article 50
2- the need to take 'no deal' of the table
3- a permanent CU with the EU
4- a much softer version of Brexit, possibly even Norway style
and possibly also a 5th, albeit later:
5- the need to have this version of Brexit approved via a referendum

Arion640 wrote:

Well as you guys keep saying, there can be no further negotiation and no cherry picking, so so be it!

No deal brexit here we come.

Have they got the numbers, or ability to even maintain a functioning government on pursuit of a no deal?:


https://news.sky.com/story/pressure-mou ... t-11614147

A leaked whitehall report shows that a No Deal Crash out could mean a reduction of up to 83% of cross channel freight:

https://news.sky.com/story/cross-channe ... s-11614002

I just cannot see parliament letting a No Deal Brexit fly. This was a (failed) negotiating tactic to try and get better terms from the EU. Now the negotiations are over it is left on the table to simply try and scare Parliament (and therefore us) into accepting Theresa Mays deal.

Richard28 wrote:

[*] Scotland could call for a new referendum, but it is up to London whether this goes ahead. It is ironic that Scotland does not have its own Article 50 type provisions to break away from the UK and a time and manner of its own choosing. As to which way a vote would go (if allowed by Westminster) your guess is as good as mine, but I would not confuse Scottish or national elections with a future referendum result, just as the 2017 UK General Election did not concur the views on EU membership or reflect the 2016 EU referendum.

And to add to that, Nicola Sturgeon (with the support of the pro-independence Scottish Greens) got a small majority in the Scottish Parliament to write to Westminster to request another referendum which Theresa May swiftly rejected. You're right about the subsequent election results as the SNP have not done great since the EU referendum, though it's worth noting that support for Scottish independence has dropped since the 2014 referendum other than from hard core supporters.

No matter how much pressure Sturgeon is put under, I don't think she's that stupid to attempt to call another referendum in the short-term if the polls indicate it will not be successful...unless she wants to ensure the SNP are unelectable for the foreseeable on the grounds of being a single issue party.

sabenapilot wrote:

Expect her neutral motion to be successfully amended by Parliament to include:
1- the immediate need to seek an extension to article 50
2- the need to take 'no deal' of the table
3- a permanent CU with the EU
4- a much softer version of Brexit, possibly even Norway style
and possibly also a 5th, albeit later:
5- the need to have this version of Brexit approved via a referendum

Or a sixth option which is to cancel Brexit. I see May mentioned again yesterday that was an option if this deal (which is effectively the same one but dressed up slightly) is rejected.

sabenapilot wrote:

1- the immediate need to seek an extension to article 50
2- the need to take 'no deal' of the table
3- a permanent CU with the EU
4- a much softer version of Brexit, possibly even Norway style
and possibly also a 5th, albeit later:
5- the need to have this version of Brexit approved via a referendum

1 For any Brexit to succeed, (even a No Deal crash out) more time is needed
2 This seems to have an overwhelming majority in the House of Commons
3 This is the only way to properly address the Northern Ireland border... along with
4 Single market access will aslo be needed to ensure no border and frictionless trade
5 Which should make people think, is this really worth it (it isn't) and give the people the chance to decide on the outcome from Parliament

The only fly in the ointment is can a government be held together through all this to see it through to conclusion... I still have the feeling that it may not be Theresa May who guides this through.... and a general election in the middle of all this potentially throws all the cards back in the air, but of course removes none of the underlying problems.

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

So plan B is actually plan A with some amendments, vote is next week.



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... itics-live

Well as you guys keep saying, there can be no further negotiation and no cherry picking, so so be it!

No deal brexit here we come.

Don't know. Still time. First, we need a divorce bill settled if the back=stop could be the Norwegian model for instance.

I would actually accept Mays deal, like i said before there would have to be a compromise in the end. And it’s delaying the country from moving forward now.

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Well as you guys keep saying, there can be no further negotiation and no cherry picking, so so be it!

No deal brexit here we come.

Don't know. Still time. First, we need a divorce bill settled if the back=stop could be the Norwegian model for instance.

I would actually accept Mays deal, like i said before there would have to be a compromise in the end. And it’s delaying the country from moving forward now.

True, 2,5 years of not addressing key British problems, because politics is preoccupied with Brexit. The EU too much lesser extends, but still.

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Well as you guys keep saying, there can be no further negotiation and no cherry picking, so so be it!

No deal brexit here we come.

Don't know. Still time. First, we need a divorce bill settled if the back=stop could be the Norwegian model for instance.

I would actually accept Mays deal, like i said before there would have to be a compromise in the end. And it’s delaying the country from moving forward now.

I agree with you the deal presented by Mrs May to Parliament is a compromise, but remember it is a compromise between the EU and a Tory PM trying to protect her self-imposed red lines on Brexit which thus lead to quite a hard version of that Brexit.

The 2 problems are that:
1- the compromise is a complicated, humiliating and potentially unworkable arrangement for the UK in the long term.
2- it clearly does not command a majority, not in her own party, and certainly not in parliament.

A compromise is needed indeed like you say, and since it's now clear NOTHING the EU will sign up to will ever command a majority in her own party, it's high time to seek a majority in Parliament (even if it means going against a big portion of her own party): that will however mean the final outcome will be much much softer than what TM has been trying to achieve..

As was said above: it remains to be seen if TM has the state(wo)manship in her to accept she'll have to go along with this, even if against the will of (many) in her own party, or whether she'll somehow quit and risk real progress through parliamentary initiatives being thrown in the air.
She knows she's finished anyway as a PM after brexit, has only become a Brexiteer by duty rather than conviction and like any leader nearing the end of his/her political life she'll be concerned about what kind of a legacy she'll leave behind for her country, so my bet is she's going to along with whatever Parliament decides for her, especially as she can't be kicked out by her own party for another 11,5 months still.

TM deal is only a withdrawal agreement not a deal, however what it leads to is already a soft Brexit in my opinion. Norway is Brexit in name only, Norway is basically an EU member with no decision power.

Hard Brexit is crashing out, or leaving all treaties amicably, with a negotiation from 0 as any third country to get to some kind of trade deal.