agill
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:09 pm

Aesma wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if some of these "news"papers HQs ended up burned to the ground when Brexit has happened and is the disaster it was always going to be.

Why? They would just say "Well it's the germans fault. They are trying to get back at us because they lost the war" and the brexit crowd would belive them.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:19 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
TM's Brexit speech to start any moment now..


Glad to see absoutely nothing has changed with her. Utterly useless.


Does this woman ever do anything else but deliver speeches in which she begs others to solve her self-made problems?

Less speech, more delivery, please....
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:46 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Brexiteers are already starting to deflect the blame, it seems....

Brexiteers were back peddling the second the polls closed on EU referendum day.
 
WIederling
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:11 pm

WildcatYXU wrote:
LJ wrote:
Moreover, when Germany and France go for Summer time, how can countries like Belgium and The Netherlands decide otherwise?


What would prevent Belgium and The Netherlands from keeping winter time?


Nothing.
Only that you have the same kind of unexpected timechanges all over the place back again.
A bloody mix of switching or not at some date or other.
Turns timetable adjustments into a higher dimension of PITA.

the Brits had DST since WWII and were one hour off anyway.
The Germany changed to DST but switched at a different date.
....................
Murphy is an optimist
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:24 pm

A defense of TM and all politicians: they represent their voters all too well.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:27 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
A defense of TM and all politicians: they represent their voters all too well.


Auch :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:31 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Meeting is said to have an extremely short time slot scheduled: just 15 minutes, so probably shorter than TM's speech even!


Well, the council of government leaders did it in five minutes. Basically, there is nothing to discuss.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:30 pm

End of next week there is only no deal on the table. Revoke A50 is only possible with referendum or revokation of Brexit.

So no deal it is, all in the name of Brexit and saving the Tory party.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:07 pm

olle wrote:
End of next week there is only no deal on the table. Revoke A50 is only possible with referendum or revokation of Brexit.

So no deal it is, all in the name of Brexit and saving the Tory party.


I'm pretty sure A50 could be revoked with a vote by Parliament given that the UK Supreme Court ruled that Parliament has sovereignty over Brexit decisions.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:16 pm

The EU27's best and final offer to TM and her Conservative Party who's now affraid the UK will be trapped in a permanent CU with the EU under the NI backstop is simple: "the EU doesn't want the UK to join anything against it will, but the UK irself asked for and got from the EU a nationwide Single Customs Territory iso just a Irish Customs Territory needed to keep the GFA intact... TM is however free to revert back to the original offer and put the border back in the Irish Sea."
And that's it.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:56 pm

scbriml wrote:
olle wrote:
End of next week there is only no deal on the table. Revoke A50 is only possible with referendum or revokation of Brexit.

So no deal it is, all in the name of Brexit and saving the Tory party.


I'm pretty sure A50 could be revoked with a vote by Parliament given that the UK Supreme Court ruled that Parliament has sovereignty over Brexit decisions.


European Court for Justice ruled that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 am

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... xit-defeat

The EU’s chief negotiator said in a series of tweets that the EU was committed “to give the UK the option to exit the single customs territory unilaterally, while the other elements of the backstop must be maintained to avoid a hard border. [The] UK will not be forced into a customs union against its will.”


A senior EU official admitted that Barnier’s response could be seen as a “slap in the face”.

Before making public his offer, Barnier had briefed ambassadors to the 27 in what was said to have been a “gloomy” meeting. “There has been a total breakdown in trust,” one EU diplomat said. “They wanted the UK-wide [backstop] and now they don’t like it any more,” added a second. “It’s a strange situation, but there is nothing that should surprise us in British politics.”

“It is very clear that we are running out of time and that you are dealing with a partner preventing solutions to non-existent problems,” the diplomat added.

Comments by the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, have added to a sense of frustration with Westminster. “We are confronted with absolute populism and that is hard to deal with,” said the diplomat.

Playtime in Westminster is about over. Things are getting real, with very much real consequences!
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:37 am

A3801000 wrote:
'In 2018 alone, these German sales amounted to £70 billion
The Germans bought less than half this amount from British companies

This is the usual stuff we see in the UK press these days. It must be due to lack of active brain cells, both for the news reporters and the readers who buy their product.

Trade facts are just a little more complicated, but well within the capability of a normal human brain.

Example:
Britain imports German hydraulic machinery in Germany.
Britain builds aircraft wings, installs the German produced hydraulics in them, and exports the finished wings to France.
France mounts the wings on aircraft and sells the aircraft all over the world.

It is quite easily seen how it affects the inter-German/UK trade relations. Easy because it really isn't complicated.

The only mystery is how it seemingly suddenly has become too complicated for a majority of the British these days.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:45 am

I can understand the frustration, that must be feld all around, not the least of which: TM herself. Nothing can be accomplished with this Parlement.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
jcancel
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:06 am

"We are confronted with absolute populism and that is hard to deal with"

This problem was created by cynical politicians who lied to further their own careers.

Time to tell the truth.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:26 pm

jcancel wrote:
"We are confronted with absolute populism and that is hard to deal with"

This problem was created by cynical politicians who lied to further their own careers.

Time to tell the truth.



And being dishonest about the EU for the past 40 years.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:29 am

19 days till d-day. Voting week is here. We'll see if the Brittish MOP will come to their senses or that the cliff edge will be the only option left.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:47 am

Does it still matter? Every business has no activated their hard Brexit plans.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:01 am

Sure it does matter. Damage is there, but it can be much much worse.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:17 pm

There has been some interesting speeches made by british politicians recently. Am I the only one with the impression that they fear parliament will not approve the WA and are trying to make sure that whatever happens, no deal or no brexit, they can always blame anything bad on the EU.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:12 am

Bostrom wrote:
There has been some interesting speeches made by british politicians recently. Am I the only one with the impression that they fear parliament will not approve the WA and are trying to make sure that whatever happens, no deal or no brexit, they can always blame anything bad on the EU.


That's the main game in town it seems.

All ludicrous when you consider that it was the UK's decision to leave, Theresa May held an unnecessary general election, losing her majority, the UK agreed to a backstop, the UK designed the backstop, Theresa May championed her deal, and then subsequently voted against it, blaming the backstop.

After the biggest parliamentary defeat in history, Theresa May was told she needed to have a Plan B and needed to reach for a compromise across the Commons - she has instead and been stubborn, doing neither, resorting to what many have reported as financial bribes in order to try and force her Withdrawal Agreement through.

And now 18 days before Brexit with business and public not having a clue what will happen, she is now reportedly considering trying to delay the Meaningful vote this week, or even having a third vote if, as expected, she loses this weeks vote.

There are people buying the EU blame card, but one would hope the majority see it for what it is.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:31 am

Richard28 wrote:
After the biggest parliamentary defeat in history, Theresa May was told she needed to have a Plan B and needed to reach for a compromise across the Commons - she has instead and been stubborn, doing neither, resorting to what many have reported as financial bribes in order to try and force her Withdrawal Agreement through.


She's playing brinkmanship.

It's entirely possible that no agreement could carry a majority in Parliament. IMHO, that would have been the case even if we hadn't had an election and the Tories still had a comfortable majority.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:06 am

scbriml wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
After the biggest parliamentary defeat in history, Theresa May was told she needed to have a Plan B and needed to reach for a compromise across the Commons - she has instead and been stubborn, doing neither, resorting to what many have reported as financial bribes in order to try and force her Withdrawal Agreement through.


She's playing brinkmanship.

It's entirely possible that no agreement could carry a majority in Parliament. IMHO, that would have been the case even if we hadn't had an election and the Tories still had a comfortable majority.


and thus we are heading to a crash out, a thing only a small minority wants: the ultimate loose - loose - loose.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:14 am

Richard28 wrote:
All ludicrous when you consider that it was the UK's decision to leave, Theresa May held an unnecessary general election, losing her majority, the UK agreed to a backstop, the UK designed the backstop, Theresa May championed her deal, and then subsequently voted against it, blaming the backstop.


About the backstop, what Brexiters don't seem to realize is that the concept itself is British. On the continent nobody knows what it is, since we don't know cricket.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:17 am

scbriml wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
After the biggest parliamentary defeat in history, Theresa May was told she needed to have a Plan B and needed to reach for a compromise across the Commons - she has instead and been stubborn, doing neither, resorting to what many have reported as financial bribes in order to try and force her Withdrawal Agreement through.


She's playing brinkmanship.

It's entirely possible that no agreement could carry a majority in Parliament. IMHO, that would have been the case even if we hadn't had an election and the Tories still had a comfortable majority.


Well the ERG (should be renamed AEG, anti-european group) don't want a deal, they want to profit from the UK crashing out, while commoners suffer. They're not even that shy about it, having moved their businesses to the EU, having large short positions on the pound, etc. Their real motivation is that they don't want to have to pay their taxes, so they don't want the new EU fiscal rules, anti-laundering etc., to apply to them.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:23 am

scbriml wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
After the biggest parliamentary defeat in history, Theresa May was told she needed to have a Plan B and needed to reach for a compromise across the Commons - she has instead and been stubborn, doing neither, resorting to what many have reported as financial bribes in order to try and force her Withdrawal Agreement through.


She's playing brinkmanship.

It's entirely possible that no agreement could carry a majority in Parliament. IMHO, that would have been the case even if we hadn't had an election and the Tories still had a comfortable majority.


The 2017 election gave power to the DUP, although its debatable whether that would have changed the outcome, as her contradictory red lines had already been painted at that point.

I continue to think that there could be a majority for what is promoted as Norway+ or Common Market 2.0 - it's a nonsense solution of course, and a far weaker position for the UK than our EU membership with our opt outs.

I agree it seems every other option would not support a majority.

As much as she has ridiculed it in the past, I still see a ratification referendum as a possible solution for Theresa May to adopt herself, in order for the public to decide if they want her deal or not, as parliament will not be able to make this decision itself.

This would have been quite straight forward had we had these discussions in December, as originally intended, but 3-6 months is needed for this to happen, which would now require the election of MEP's, causing its own political issues/consequences.

In 2016/17 I used to wonder what Theresa Mays grand plan was with Brexit, but it seems she has merely played a game of survival with no real plan in place at all!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:36 am

Aesma wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
All ludicrous when you consider that it was the UK's decision to leave, Theresa May held an unnecessary general election, losing her majority, the UK agreed to a backstop, the UK designed the backstop, Theresa May championed her deal, and then subsequently voted against it, blaming the backstop.


About the backstop, what Brexiters don't seem to realize is that the concept itself is British. On the continent nobody knows what it is, since we don't know cricket.


"Safety Net" would have been a much more appropriate term to describe it.

It also makes you realise more clearly that having a temporary, or time limited safety net is complete nonsense!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:36 am

Richard28 wrote:
In 2016/17 I used to wonder what Theresa Mays grand plan was with Brexit, but it seems she has merely played a game of survival with no real plan in place at all!


She's just going VFR on Brexit, from step to step, day by day and the ONLY thing she tries to avoid is to split her party...

Word has it she's now going to pull the meaningful vote promissed for tomorrow because she's realized she'll lose it (by a wider margin than the first one even!) and replace it by a ridiculous vote on the current WA + a relatively detailed yet purely fictitous annex containing changes to the backstop as written by Mr Cox.

But what kind of a Parliament is it that votes on imaginary deals, rather than the real ones?
What's next: the UK Parliament actually voting UNICORNS are real animals and must be put at display at each town square post-Brexit, with the EU having to deliver them from their zoos?
:banghead:
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:44 am

This is a pure blame shifting strategy then. If the EU rejects the wishes of Mr. Cox, the Eu will be blamed for causing the hard Brexit. The result (hard Brexit) is certain then.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:44 am

sabenapilot wrote:
Word has it she's now going to pull the meaningful vote promissed for tomorrow because she's realized she'll lose it (by a wider margin than the first one even!) and replace it by a ridiculous vote on the current WA + a relatively detailed yet purely fictitous annex containing changes to the backstop as written by Mr Cox.

But what kind of a Parliament is it that votes on imaginary deals, rather than the real ones?
What's next: the UK Parliament actually voting UNICORNS are real animals and must be put at display at each town square post-Brexit, with the EU having to deliver them from their zoos?
:banghead:


Should she do that then it puts her cabinet under severe pressure. Many of them (reportedly) are close to resigning on this issue and a further delay could push some of them off the edge.

There is also the issue that the vote has been promised at the dispatch box... my understanding is that this commits her to the vote (I could be wrong though here - does anyone know more on the ramifications of this?)
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:04 am

Well yes, so it was promissed from the dispatch box, so what?
The UK has no written constitution, so its pretty much all tradition and making up as you go overhere, which is part of the problem (i.e. British politicians not understanding the imposdibility to step out of what is pre-agreed by a rules-based organistation like the EU or to deviate from the GFA), so if she breaks her word, nothing will happen as her own party would have to punish her, yet she'd be doing it to save their necks in the first place...
The UK has no Constitution, and its citizens clearly no protection from abuse if things go really nastry and the PM puts party above country.
Are these the bunch you'd want to hand full control to?
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:28 pm

Richard28 wrote:
There is also the issue that the vote has been promised at the dispatch box... my understanding is that this commits her to the vote (I could be wrong though here - does anyone know more on the ramifications of this?)


I don't know, but it could mean Parliament might try again at fielding a no-confidence vote as May already has previous for kicking the vote down the road (which itself has to happen because of Gina Miller taking the government to court over it). I see that a Tory MP (Nick Boles) has suggested on Twitter that not having the vote tomorrow would "forfeit the confidence of the House of Commons."

sabenapilot wrote:
The UK has no written constitution, so its pretty much all tradition and making up as you go overhere, which is part of the problem (i.e. British politicians not understanding the imposdibility to step out of what is pre-agreed by a rules-based organistation like the EU or to deviate from the GFA), so if she breaks her word, nothing will happen as her own party would have to punish her, yet she'd be doing it to save their necks in the first place...


The Tories (or more specifically, those who want May out such as the ERG mob) don't really have much room to "punish" May for the time being. May won her no-confidence vote and is still within the 12 month immunity period from further no-confidence votes within the party, so their only hope is if she resigns or enough pressure is put on her to resign.

seahawk wrote:
This is a pure blame shifting strategy then. If the EU rejects the wishes of Mr. Cox, the Eu will be blamed for causing the hard Brexit. The result (hard Brexit) is certain then.


Not really. May backed herself into a corner with her red lines and I've struggled to see what else she can get that doesn't involve compromising those red lines.

That said, Parliament will have a lot to answer for if it came to a disastrous no deal scenario becoming a reality. It's all good and well voting down deals no matter how bad they are and passing motions calling for "alternative arrangements" to the backstop without spelling out what they would accept.

scbriml wrote:
She's playing brinkmanship.

It's entirely possible that no agreement could carry a majority in Parliament. IMHO, that would have been the case even if we hadn't had an election and the Tories still had a comfortable majority.


If Parliament had any balls and cared about the impact no deal will have, they should push for Article 50 revocation if the current deal and no deal are both voted down. Voting to extend Article 50 without a plan is not credible or a sensible option if there's no plan in place as to how that will be achieved, nor is it feasible if some/all of the red lines aren't dropped.

I note that even Jeremy Hunt is now saying Brexit might not happen (or words to that effect) if the deal is voted down tomorrow.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:52 pm

Richard28 wrote:
In 2016/17 I used to wonder what Theresa Mays grand plan was with Brexit, but it seems she has merely played a game of survival with no real plan in place at all!


I used to think there was no plan, then in November/December last year I entertained the idea it could actually be a cunning plan (to force Brexit In Name Only), but in January it became obvious that she has no effing clue what she's doing...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:57 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
If Parliament had any balls and cared about the impact no deal will have, they should push for Article 50 revocation if the current deal and no deal are both voted down. Voting to extend Article 50 without a plan is not credible or a sensible option if there's no plan in place as to how that will be achieved, nor is it feasible if some/all of the red lines aren't dropped.


Michel Barnier has just said to AFP that although he's always available for further talks and clarifications, negotiations are between the British Government and the British Parliament.
(a kind way to say the British finally need to make up their mind).

It basically means that with just over 2 weeks to go and a lot of trying very hard, even harder, extremely hard and whatever superlatives you can still add to that, the same 3 choices on offer from the EU still are:
the current WA
no deal
a full reset to reconsider thoroughly what to do

Exactly as TM has always maintained too until the very moment she'd lost the meaningful vote and she suddenly opposed her own negotiated deal which she had labeled the only option apart from no deal or no brexit...

Meanwhile TM has just announced that the meaningful vote is still on for tomorrow, and as she's facing defeat in it, the likely outcome is that also a no deal will be voted off the table the next day, and then... the UK asks for an extension? Is there a majority for that in the house?

If so, I can see TM officially asking for the extension, while trying a third time to get the deal through somewhere in the second half of the month still, as the EU has already said it will only grand:
a short technical extension to get the WA through and the legislation in place for an orderly withdrawal
a long extension till the end of 2020 so it effectively moves Brexit out of the way for this year,
or nothing.

So in case the request to extend is made, I can see the EU start with offering the UK the short extension only, and then TM having to go back to the House saying that if they vote the WA down a third time, the extension will have to be made to last very long as an automatic consequence because that's the only thing she could get from the EU...
Maybe that can focus the minds of the die-hard brexiteers?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:14 pm

If the hard Brexit is taken off the table, the Tories implode and split. That then leaves 2 options. Labour votes with the majority of the Tories for the the WA (nothing for Labour to gain from that), or some Tories vote with Labour for an extension of the of the withdrawal period or/and a second referendum - which means a new election as well.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:28 pm

British citizens who own shares in Ryanair will be barred from buying more stock, voting on company resolutions or attending annual shareholder meetings if a no-deal Brexit goes ahead, the Dublin-based carrier said on Monday.


"Taking Back Control"..... actions have consequences.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ore-shares
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:25 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
So in case the request to extend is made, I can see the EU start with offering the UK the short extension only, and then TM having to go back to the House saying that if they vote the WA down a third time, the extension will have to be made to last very long as an automatic consequence because that's the only thing she could get from the EU...
Maybe that can focus the minds of the die-hard brexiteers?


An extension has no use if nothing changes in British politics.

Pick two out of three: hard brexit, no wall across Ireland and no walls inside the UK. Picking all three is the unicorn.

As the EU has said, an extension is acceptable if there is a concrete plan to help an orderly Brexit. An extension because the British still haven't decided anything will only drag this out and is no use.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:58 pm

Trying to see if there is a logic train here:

The current WA will be voted down decisively

A hard Brexit will be voted down with a substantial majority. Say about 55%(?)

So that leaves:

Withdraw article 50, no Brexit.

Another referendum, which likely will favor Remain by 53-54% Down side, a seriously divided country for the next few years.

Dark horse:
A required vote in the north of Ireland, which if polls are to be believed, would accept a border in the Irish Sea, which ironically could improve the chances of a hard Brexit.

Implosion of UK government and another general election. Which could also be indecisive.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:07 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
In 2016/17 I used to wonder what Theresa Mays grand plan was with Brexit, but it seems she has merely played a game of survival with no real plan in place at all!


I used to think there was no plan, then in November/December last year I entertained the idea it could actually be a cunning plan (to force Brexit In Name Only), but in January it became obvious that she has no effing clue what she's doing...


I speculated last year that Theresa May as a remainer was going for the hardest possible Brexit, so that the UK after a few years would see the benefits of the EU and apply to rejoin. But I'm not so sure about that anymore.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:17 pm

TM is on her way to Strasbourg for some face-to-face with Commission President Juncker, EP President Tajani and Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt, after having been on the phone with them throughout the day.

Word has it TM is now willing to take the EU's offer to complement the current WA with an interpretative instrument which sets out its aim is not to keep the UK trapped in a custom union against it will (but that still means NI stays behind in the EU then), something she has so far refused as being not enough.

In the face of defeat however, it seems she's going to take the offer anyway since it would allow Cox to change his legal advice: the UK would technically be able to walk away from the backstop, but at a massive price then (NI)... exactly as in the first iteration of the WA which got changed into the current nationwide backstop on the insistance of TM?!

Some of the Tory Brexiteers may now be desperate enough to vote for it anyway and even give up NI to secure any sort of Brexit; the question is what will the DUP think of such a return to basically the old terms?

Most interesting last minute turn of events, once more...
I can't refrain from thinking it is staged between TM and the EU to give MPs very little time to scrutinize the details before they'll have to vote on it tomorrow and at least give her a small chance of success, because just going to a vote without anything new at all was plain silly.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:12 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Most interesting last minute turn of events, once more....


I think we'll see more last minute turn of events in the coming 18 days. This will certainly not be the last.

sabenapilot wrote:
Some of the Tory Brexiteers may now be desperate enough to vote for it anyway and even give up NI to secure any sort of Brexit;


It will at least show how loyal most Tory MPs will be towards NI.

sabenapilot wrote:
the question is what will the DUP think of such a return to basically the old terms?


I don't think that we need to speculate on what they'll think. If she goes ahead, DUP will probably say goodbye to the Tories.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:27 pm

Does an MP get a fat cat pension when he/she resigns?
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:29 pm

Its becoming clear WHY TM absolutely goes to Strasbourg in person to accept an empty box she refused earlier on: the aim is to make a unilateral declaration there on how the UK interprets the backstop, and have the EU take note of that. The PM can then pretend at home this is indeed how it should all be interpreted as she has spoken about it with all top EU officials, even though the EU does not explicitly signs up to it and the WA isn't clear on it.
The hopes are that enough MPs will only look at the WA from the British point of view, thus including a self-added temporary backstop, even though that part of it is only dreamt up. As said earlier today: British politicians come from a country without a written constitution so they add great weight to these kind of implicit formalities; for the EU and in international law in general only written texts prevail however and there not a single letter is changed...
But that's something which they will only find out for sure at the end of 2020, at best... or so it is hoped, because I can't see how the EU27 and especially Ireland would be willing to remain silent and refuse to answer any question as to whether the UK's unilateral interpretation of the backstop is indeed the correct one.
I can even see an ECJ case being introduced with high urgency to gain unambiguous clarification should it not come from the EU27 itself.
Just another proof British politics is now fully in lala-land where scores of unicorns fill the sunlit uplands. ;)
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:51 pm

In what world does TM live if she thinks this will go well for her? This is crazy. In the end the Brits need to pick two out of three: hard brexit, no wall across Ireland and no walls inside the UK. Picking all three is the unicorn. What the EU has been saying for two and a half years: what do you want? Pick something.

Image
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
KLDC10
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:42 pm

Dutchy wrote:
In what world does TM live if she thinks this will go well for her? This is crazy. In the end the Brits need to pick two out of three: hard brexit, no wall across Ireland and no walls inside the UK. Picking all three is the unicorn. What the EU has been saying for two and a half years: what do you want? Pick something.

Image


Alright; if push comes to shove, then Hard Brexit and no walls inside the UK.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:52 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
In what world does TM live if she thinks this will go well for her? This is crazy. In the end the Brits need to pick two out of three: hard brexit, no wall across Ireland and no walls inside the UK. Picking all three is the unicorn. What the EU has been saying for two and a half years: what do you want? Pick something.

Image


Alright; if push comes to shove, then Hard Brexit and no walls inside the UK.


Fine, all you need to do is: a. convince a majority of your Member of Parliament to do this. b. live with all the consequences of such a move:

> Harsh economic times
> Quite possibly the end of the United Kingdom as we know it
> Quite possibly a downturn in civil liberties (will be less protected since many of the liberties are protected by the EU which aren't in British law

And remember it is all self-inflicted, that is the crazy thing about it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:22 pm

EU, including ROI, will be implacable if UK does not prevent a hard border ROI/N Ireland. And by implacable, as harsh a trade agreements as WTO permits. No cooperation in unless utterly required for EU. No assumption of good faith with anything to do with the UK. I don't think this will happen.
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Dieuwer
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:04 am

The only reason one is in this mess is because politicians only think about themselves and only care about getting reelected.
It's a shame there is nobody around who dares to take the tough decisions and tell people how things really are, without any bullshit stories.
Of course, there has not been a real leader anywhere with a spine for decades, so I won't hold my breath.

Perhaps when BREXIT become reality and people experience hardship, then MAYBE at the next election all the old fossils are voted out. Perhaps then, a new person with fresh and honest ideas comes to the fore.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:28 am

Dutchy wrote:
KLDC10 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
In what world does TM live if she thinks this will go well for her? This is crazy. In the end the Brits need to pick two out of three: hard brexit, no wall across Ireland and no walls inside the UK. Picking all three is the unicorn. What the EU has been saying for two and a half years: what do you want? Pick something.

Image


Alright; if push comes to shove, then Hard Brexit and no walls inside the UK.


Fine, all you need to do is: a. convince a majority of your Member of Parliament to do this. b. live with all the consequences of such a move:

> Harsh economic times
> Quite possibly the end of the United Kingdom as we know it
> Quite possibly a downturn in civil liberties (will be less protected since many of the liberties are protected by the EU which aren't in British law

And remember it is all self-inflicted, that is the crazy thing about it.


Why are you worried about what the UK decided to do, support for a hard Brexit is growing within the UK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ng-number/
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 5:Bye England! See you soon Scotland ?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:36 am

Not worried, just looking at a loose - loose situation.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!

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