tommy1808
Posts: 10098
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:58 am

anrec80 wrote:
There are no major companies in EU without major US ties simply.


Major companies don´t make the majority of the economy. But nice try.

Total is getting its capital in the US capital markets, European banks make money in the US financial system, doing anything but what they should be - providing liquidity and capital to European firms. EU doesn’t even have any financial system it can call its own. Without using US financial services Lufthansa can’t even buy a Hamburg-assembled A-320 (and the contracts are being denominated in USD).


Hahaha... i can do money transfers into Iran from my online banking, i just checked, and i can have a USD account at the same bank and do USD bank transfers. I would assume Lufthansa would not have trouble opening an account at one of the myriads of Sparkassen that couldn´t care less about US sanctions. Neither would Airbus.
And that isn´t even trouble, even we have a couple of Non-EU, but located in the EU, supplieers where price lists and orders are in USD, we still pay in EURO. We simply agreed to pay the noon exchange rate of the day we ordered.
But that is just your and your bosses wet dream, isn´t it? Because you may be able to play USD games after a fashion with irrelevant economies like Russia or Iran as long as most of the worlds economy goes along with it, but use that wedge against the EU or even China, or any larger chunk of the worlds economy, and the USD is done as the international standard tender in that very second.
That is btw why China doesn´t play any currency games anymore, it is the only way to be accepted as a reserve, and hence international, currency.

In order for the whole European economy to come to a full stop, all that’s needed is an (un-) carefully prepared press-release by Steven Mnuchin’s press-secretary mentioning Deutche Bank in the wrong (or right, dependent on purposes) context. No decisions even..


Laundering money in the billions for the Russian mob didn´t do anything beyond getting Deutsche Bank itself in trouble, despite lots of statements and lots of proof.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
trav777
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:17 pm

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:44 am

tommy1808 wrote:
anrec80 wrote:
There are no major companies in EU without major US ties simply.


EURO. We simply agreed to pay the noon exchange rate of the day we ordered.
But that is just your and your bosses wet dream, isn´t it? Because you may be able to play USD games after a fashion with irrelevant economies like Russia or Iran as long as most of the worlds economy goes along with it, but use that wedge against the EU or even China, or any larger chunk of the worlds economy, and the USD is done as the international standard tender in that very second.
That is btw why China doesn´t play any currency games anymore, it is the only way to be accepted as a reserve, and hence international, currency.

Thomas


lol, you really don't know do ya?

Eurodollar debt man. Most of your debt in your own economy is denominated in dollars. Last financial crisis, the Fed bent the ECB over a barrel.

This is why the USD won't die already and why China with their little yuan have no chance.
 
anrec80
Posts: 1540
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:25 pm

trav777 wrote:
Eurodollar debt man. Most of your debt in your own economy is denominated in dollars. Last financial crisis, the Fed bent the ECB over a barrel.
This is why the USD won't die already and why China with their little yuan have no chance.


I wouldn’t call Yuan “little”. And keep in mind - with all these sanction rounds there are more and more nations and blocs that are looking to get away from USD dependency, and China isn’t being among them. China is actually rather reluctant so sign such agreements to trade in national currencies. USD won’t die while the USA is on this planet, but its role and benefits USA reaps due to status of the USD will diminish greatly.

Speaking of ECB - well, this is what happens when you don’t have a financial system of your own.
 
anrec80
Posts: 1540
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:49 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Major companies don´t make the majority of the economy. But nice try.


Not majority, but without the jobs they create, services they provide at scale, R&D they perform the rest of economy can’t function efficiently.

tommy1808 wrote:
Hahaha... i can do money transfers into Iran from my online banking, i just checked,


You can, but what will this change? Good luck trying to bring a tanker of oil from there. You will need a lot of services by a lot of organizations - shipping line, insurance, loading/unloading, etc. Pay to the crew after all. And - when you actually try the transaction, did you ask what documentation will you need?

tommy1808 wrote:
I would assume Lufthansa would not have trouble opening an account at one of the myriads of Sparkassen that couldn´t care less about US sanctions. Neither would Airbus.
And that isn´t even trouble, even we have a couple of Non-EU, but located in the EU, supplieers where price lists and orders are in USD, we still pay in EURO. We simply agreed to pay the noon exchange rate of the day we ordered.


They can, though what will that change? LH doesn’t buy all their planes for cash - no one does. They will need leasing company to finalize the transaction. There are a lot of financial services involved into payments for engines, US suppliers, R&D. FX rate hedging after all. All that is extremely capital intensive, and Euro zone simply does not have enough liquidity and financial instruments offered at competitive margins to do such transactions at required scale. It’s great that you can buy and pay in euros to your suppliers, but there are dozens (if not hundreds) of suppliers needed to assemble our A-320.

And - last but not least - if your firm is mentioned by Steven Mnuchin in the same sentence with Iran, will your suppliers still want to work with you? I bet they will just shake off you guys as if you were infectious of some sort.

tommy1808 wrote:
But that is just your and your bosses wet dream, isn´t it? Because you may be able to play USD games after a fashion with irrelevant economies like Russia or Iran as long as most of the worlds economy goes along with it, but use that wedge against the EU or even China, or any larger chunk of the worlds economy, and the USD is done as the international standard tender in that very second.


This is nobody’s dream. Overall, USD as the universal standard tender works for everyone, but its owner started abusing it. Hence everyone is looking for alternative and get away from such dependency. Even in Europe. But you can’t do it quickly at world’s scale, it will take a lot of time. Current financial system took centuries to build after all, and you can’t do the same in a decade. You have to build international agreements, build new institutions, ensure there are banks, investment and other financial services offered in the alternative system. The work is in progress though - BRICS Development Bank for example. They have just created this one, and it’s interesting that most of European nations, including Britain, wanted a small chunk of shares there - perhaps they understand it’s good to have an alternative.

tommy1808 wrote:
Laundering money in the billions for the Russian mob didn´t do anything beyond getting Deutsche Bank itself in trouble, despite lots of statements and lots of proof.


Yes, USA does that periodically - fine some foreign banks. With trillion dollar deficits, every penny counts.
 
anrec80
Posts: 1540
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:51 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Because you may be able to play USD games after a fashion with irrelevant economies like Russia or Iran


And what happened with the last sanctions? Aluminum shortage and prices shooting up. And - given that Steven Munchin is running around the whole DC screaming “we need to get out of these sanctions and can’t do them anymore!” - perhaps not so irrelevant? But - the political system is very inertious, and it won’t stop until it destroys everything around it. These standoffs like sanctions are easy to get into, but incredibly hard to get out of. Same as wars - they are easy to start, but are incredibly hard to end.
 
alfa164
Posts: 2588
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:05 pm

anrec80 wrote:
salttee wrote:
Oh the bloody Irony!! A Russian calling someone (anyone) else the world's corruption leader. That takes the cake.


This not what takes the cake. You guys spend 4-5 times(!) more on same kind of planes and ships than Russia and China, and not only believe that this is OK, but also proud of it. As opposed to questioning “WTF? Why THAT much difference? Where does all this money go?”. I understand - salaries, labor protection, etc - but that can account for tens of percents at most. Quite a few times increase - yes, any corrupted official can be made jealous of this. Even in “corrupted” countries like China or Russia they often cannot even up the cost of something by half without it being noticed.


The USA does not spend money on the "same kind of planes" as Russia and China. The US planes are actually reliable and safe.

;)
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
tommy1808
Posts: 10098
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:11 am

trav777 wrote:
Most of your debt in your own economy is denominated in dollars.


The sum total of all US$ denominated debt outside the US is quite tiny relative to the economies, unless you count invoices as debt, which would be silly in this context.
There is a reason that EURO denominated debt is growing twice as fast as USD denominated debt: we don't weaponize currency.
Also the reason why, as the only correct statement in your post, the Yuan doesn't go anywhere, no one trust's the Junta in Bejing that they don't.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
GDB
Posts: 13159
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:41 pm

Have to laugh at Annec's assertion that the French carrier cannot be used 'because they ran out of money', while they are constrained by only having the one (re-fits etc) and the CDG had it's share of teething troubles early on (not unlike the US Ford's), fact is it has taken part in numerous operations over the years.
That heap of junk the Russians have? Even it's own dry-dock hates it.
 
anrec80
Posts: 1540
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:18 pm

alfa164 wrote:
The USA does not spend money on the "same kind of planes" as Russia and China. The US planes are actually reliable and safe.

;)


They are of pretty much the same kind. Their both Gen 4 and Gen 5 planes have similar features and tech specs. Accidents happen in every Air Force (including American one). And let’s not get started about F-22 operational costs and reliability. For some reason the USA can’t afford F-22 at scale. Russians though found the use of Su-57 in Syria successful and are ordering them for their Air Force.
 
anrec80
Posts: 1540
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:27 pm

GDB wrote:
Have to laugh at Annec's assertion that the French carrier cannot be used 'because they ran out of money', while they are constrained by only having the one (re-fits etc) and the CDG had it's share of teething troubles early on (not unlike the US Ford's), fact is it has taken part in numerous operations over the years.


I suggest you don’t get overly thrilled about it. “The combats are won by generals, but the wars are won by economy”. Your Ford costed upwards of $10B, and that’s just to build it. Can you afford all that fun with trillion dollar deficits? For how much longer? And I am not even mnentioning you need a bunch of other ships to go with it. It takes tens of thousands of people to crew all that fun stuff, plus to maintain all of it. You should look at your balance sheet before getting thrilled. Russians are running both trade and budget surpluses, and they can afford their one. Unlike US, Britain and France.

GDB wrote:
That heap of junk the Russians have? Even it's own dry-dock hates it.


Yes, they have one - though how many more nations have one? British are building one just now, they didn’t have any at all until recently.
 
anrec80
Posts: 1540
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:34 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
There is a reason that EURO denominated debt is growing twice as fast as USD denominated debt: we don't weaponize currency.


Euro debt is growing fast for the same reasons and American one. In Europe they have even bigger governments than in the USA, and by far more social programs, labor unions and other goodies they can no longer afford, but can’t eliminate with reasonable effort. And lately even taxing like there is no tomorrow doesn’t help. I understand them - Europeans have been fighting for their social systems since 18th century, and what now? As soon as they achieved successes in 1960s - just say “half of this doesn’t work and needs to be thrown into the garbage!”? That has no chance either obviously. Yes, European social systems need to be downsized and redesigned to account for 21st century reality, but it takes a lot of leadership and political mastery to do that.

tommy1808 wrote:
Also the reason why, as the only correct statement in your post, the Yuan doesn't go anywhere, no one trust's the Junta in Bejing that they don't.


China at this point isn’t active or aggressive globally. They are just starting. I don’t even think they want to tackle this matter alone.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 10098
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:51 am

anrec80 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
There is a reason that EURO denominated debt is growing twice as fast as USD denominated debt: we don't weaponize currency.


Euro debt is growing fast for the same reasons and American one.


I was a summing that it was clear from the context that i am talking about *outside* the EURO Zone, just as i was talking about USD outside the US. I should have clarified.

Reason to increase for example is that Russia refinanced in EURO instead of USD last autumn.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
anrec80
Posts: 1540
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: Sinking US aircraft carriers will resolve tension in South China Sea, says Chinese admiral

Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:38 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Reason to increase for example is that Russia refinanced in EURO instead of USD last autumn.


I wouldn't make a deal out of it. This is a rather normal transaction for any large scale asset manager, they make their own decisions based on how they see their risks. Be it Russians, Norwegians, Saudi Arabia fund or just an American major asset manager a-la Pimco or Black Rock.

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