KLDC10
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Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:10 pm

After months of media speculation and a poor showing for the CDU in Hesse last night, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has laid out a timetable for her departure from office. She will not be a candidate in the forthcoming CDU leadership election, which is to be held in December this year. Neither will she be a candidate for the office of Chancellor in 2021. In the intervening years, she intends to remain in the position of Chancellor and pursue policies in accordance with the coalition agreement signed with the SPD earlier this year.

There have been seismic changes in German politics in recent years - from the rise of the AfD to the collapse in support for the SPD and surge in support for Die Grünen. This, however, is by far the biggest shake-up yet. Merkel has occupied the position of Chancellor since 2005. In some respects, it is difficult to imagine anyone else doing the job. That her departure, even in the face of historically poor election results, comes on her own terms and according to her own timetable is indicative of the respect she has earned within her party.

More information here:
https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-wil ... a-46068450
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Aesma
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:20 pm

Well aside from the CDU leadership position wasn't it a given even before the last general election that this would be her last term ?
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KLDC10
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:26 pm

Aesma wrote:
Well aside from the CDU leadership position wasn't it a given even before the last general election that this would be her last term ?


There was a lot of speculation to that effect. I think much of the pre-election chatter was based on the amount of time she has been in office. Following the election, many media pundits predicted that this would be her final term (the appointment of Kramp-Karrenbauer as CDU General Secretary was also seen as a tacit acknowledgment on the part of the CDU that a successor would be required) and now we have the confirmation that Merkel will not seek office again. This news will be welcomed by many in her party who wish to see a new leader, but who have a little more deference to their leader than members of the British Conservative Party do to theirs - ie. they weren't lining up to push her out.

It is perhaps possible that she will leave office earlier than 2021 in order to give her successor a chance to steer the party towards the next Federal Election, but right now 2021 is the date we have been given.
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Aesma
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:45 pm

The problem is that she was pretty much unable to bring any change for quite some time and this will continue for a couple more years. Not just internally in Germany but also on the EU front.
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KLDC10
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:54 pm

Aesma wrote:
The problem is that she was pretty much unable to bring any change for quite some time and this will continue for a couple more years. Not just internally in Germany but also on the EU front.


That's true, but she has become such a huge figure in German politics that an immediate resignation, followed by a frantic leadership contest, would surely be detrimental to both German and European interests. An orderly departure takes longer, but can probably produce a more stable outcome. And, as I suggested above, if she has enough confidence in the next party leader (to be elected in December), she may feel comfortable leaving early.
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Dutchy
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:12 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The problem is that she was pretty much unable to bring any change for quite some time and this will continue for a couple more years. Not just internally in Germany but also on the EU front.


That's true, but she has become such a huge figure in German politics that an immediate resignation, followed by a frantic leadership contest, would surely be detrimental to both German and European interests. An orderly departure takes longer, but can probably produce a more stable outcome. And, as I suggested above, if she has enough confidence in the next party leader (to be elected in December), she may feel comfortable leaving early.


Merkel did well for Germany and the EU. A symbol for a reunited Germany. In the end, she has pasted their effectiveness so a leadership change is needed. 3 years is a long time though for this change.
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:37 am

KLDC10 wrote:
There have been seismic changes in German politics in recent years - from the rise of the AfD to the collapse in support for the SPD and surge in support for Die Grünen. This, however, is by far the biggest shake-up yet. Merkel has occupied the position of Chancellor since 2005.

She was chancellor in these years, so she has to bear responsibility for that. The rise of the AfD didn't come out of nowhere. She also has to take resposibility for her role in Brexit. These two things are also part of her legacy.
 
aviationaware
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:03 pm

Good riddance. Angela Merkel is the prime example why term limits are absolutely imperative.

Dutchy wrote:
3 years is a long time though for this change.


Angela Merkel won't remain in office for 3 years. Either she will be chased out by her successor in the party leadership (depends on who this is going to be) or her governing coalition will falter and there will be an early election as early as next year. There is no chance Angela Merkel sees the end of 2019 as chancellor.
 
KLDC10
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:07 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Merkel did well for Germany and the EU. A symbol for a reunited Germany. In the end, she has pasted their effectiveness so a leadership change is needed. 3 years is a long time though for this change.


I have a suspicion the timetable will be shortened in the end. The timing announcement itself, coming the day after the Landtagswahl in Hessen and next to Volker Bouffier, the Minister-Präsident of said Bundesland, appeared to have been wrested from her control.

Braybuddy wrote:
She was chancellor in these years, so she has to bear responsibility for that. The rise of the AfD didn't come out of nowhere. She also has to take resposibility for her role in Brexit. These two things are also part of her legacy.


Agreed, I think history will come to judge the Migrant Crisis as her biggest mistake, given that it lead not only to the rise of AfD and Brexit, but also ultimately to poor election showings for her party and her departure from office. There's no one else to blame, she made the decision herself, without consulting the Bundestag, or the European Union. It was one, reckless decision, and it's a shame, because prior to that she had demonstrated remarkable restraint in governing Germany, and I was a strong supporter of her financial policies across the Eurozone - hard to swallow as they may have been. In fact, I must admit that she was at one time my favorite European politican - she just hung on too long.

aviationaware wrote:
Angela Merkel won't remain in office for 3 years. Either she will be chased out by her successor in the party leadership (depends on who this is going to be) or her governing coalition will falter and there will be an early election as early as next year. There is no chance Angela Merkel sees the end of 2019 as chancellor.


I suspect that this will turn out to be true. Whether it is 2019 or 2020, I believe we will see a new Chancellor in Germany prior to the next election.
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PanHAM
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:48 am

Isn't it "step-down" rather than "stand-down"?

She has announced that she willl step-down as Party chair woman but intends to complete her term as Chancellor. Almost three years as a "lame duck" can be a Long time. OTH stepping down from the Position as Chancellor isn't that easy. Calling a and losing a vote of confidence would be the best way.. That could be initiated by the social democrats BTW who are not happy with the Grand coalition.

OTH the SPD should find the reasons for the loss of votes in ther own Party. If they nominate Mrs Nahles they might come out of the votes with a single Digit result. For those who don't know the Lady, Google her.

My bet is that she may stay another year in which her successors can Position themselves and stay loyal to Merkel at the same time. That means some discipline for the trio of contenders but why shouldn't that be possible. "Mutti" has survived all the years, why not 3 more. . It will be interesting times ahaed
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KLDC10
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:21 pm

PanHAM wrote:
Isn't it "step-down" rather than "stand-down"?

She has announced that she willl step-down as Party chair woman but intends to complete her term as Chancellor. Almost three years as a "lame duck" can be a Long time. OTH stepping down from the Position as Chancellor isn't that easy. Calling a and losing a vote of confidence would be the best way.. That could be initiated by the social democrats BTW who are not happy with the Grand coalition.

OTH the SPD should find the reasons for the loss of votes in ther own Party. If they nominate Mrs Nahles they might come out of the votes with a single Digit result. For those who don't know the Lady, Google her.

My bet is that she may stay another year in which her successors can Position themselves and stay loyal to Merkel at the same time. That means some discipline for the trio of contenders but why shouldn't that be possible. "Mutti" has survived all the years, why not 3 more. . It will be interesting times ahaed


The two are more or less interchangeable in this context.

I think the problem with bringing her time in office to a close with a vote of confidence (with the SPD voting against her) is that doing so would essentially guarantee new elections, because the coalition agreement would have been broken. And neither the SPD or CDU is in a strong position to enter a new federal election campaign at the moment, so her decision to attempt to smooth out the transition is understandable.

Nahles is not an inspiring leader, which of course is why traditional SPD voters are fleeing to Die Grünen and, to a far lesser extent, Die Linke. Of course, this preceded Nahles' leadership, but she hasn't made the situation any better.

If the CDU is looking for Merkel Mk.2, they will choose Karrenbauer. But I personally think that would be the wrong choice. Spahn or Merz would be more suitable.
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Odan
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:54 am

The so called MIGRANT CRISIS was probably her greatest PR error. Let me remind you that the German borders were always open. There never was anything to consult about.
 
WIederling
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:36 pm

Odan wrote:
The so called MIGRANT CRISIS was probably her greatest PR error. Let me remind you that the German borders were always open. There never was anything to consult about.


IMU "Wir schaffen das" was a "Bob the Builder" kind of statement
calling for a team effort.

One group understood that and made a tremendous and successful effort
"ingesting" these refugees while another group came down with a
prolonged case of Xenophobia.
Historically obvious any kind of phobia is a superior lever for political purposes.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Zeppi
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:39 pm

Really interesting times ahead indeed. I almost spilled my coffee the first time I heard that Merz will run for the chair, if he wins and decides to go for chancellor too I might actually vote CDU for the first time in 16 years again. That guy is the only one I see fit enough and having enough balls to really reform the entire german politics, from the direly needed tax reform over energy management to social and health management.

KLDC10 wrote:
Nahles is not an inspiring leader, which of course is why traditional SPD voters are fleeing to Die Grünen

Which is funny considering the greens are even less competent than the SPD in their similar fields, and even in their primary one environment/energy. They're a bit like the AfD on the other side, providing apparently simple and straightforward solutions which have no chance at all to succeed in reality, just because they lack scientific/rational base.

At least Merkel is on her way out, should've happened before last years election already. We had a similar situation of political standstill at the end of the 90's with Kohl already, IMHO it would be great to also introduce a two term limit for the chancellor. The longer one stays the less happens, democracy lives off change and getting some fresh wind into the whole political system more often would be a great thing. At least this time around getting a SPD/Grüne coalition in the next election are pretty slim :lol:
 
KLDC10
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:53 pm

Zeppi wrote:
Really interesting times ahead indeed. I almost spilled my coffee the first time I heard that Merz will run for the chair, if he wins and decides to go for chancellor too I might actually vote CDU for the first time in 16 years again. That guy is the only one I see fit enough and having enough balls to really reform the entire german politics, from the direly needed tax reform over energy management to social and health management.


Merz is fascinating. I too think he'd make a good Chancellor. He's also the one candidate most likely to force Merkel out of office earlier than she would like given their long-standing and well-documented animosity towards one another. According to the press, he's an early frontrunner. Karrenbauer is uninspiring, and was little-known prior to being parachuted into the office of CDU General Secretary. As for Spahn - I'm not sure.

Zeppi wrote:
Which is funny considering the greens are even less competent than the SPD in their similar fields, and even in their primary one environment/energy. They're a bit like the AfD on the other side, providing apparently simple and straightforward solutions which have no chance at all to succeed in reality, just because they lack scientific/rational base.

At least Merkel is on her way out, should've happened before last years election already. We had a similar situation of political standstill at the end of the 90's with Kohl already, IMHO it would be great to also introduce a two term limit for the chancellor. The longer one stays the less happens, democracy lives off change and getting some fresh wind into the whole political system more often would be a great thing. At least this time around getting a SPD/Grüne coalition in the next election are pretty slim :lol:


That's true. There was some conversation about the energy policy of Die Grünen in the CivAv thread about Munich Airport's (postponed) third runway. The 'Atomausstieg' was pushed by the Greens during their coalition with Schroeder's SPD, and the whole circus was compounded by Merkel's knee-jerk reaction to the events in Fukushima. Deciding to abandon a perfectly safe, clean source of abundant power was a very poor decision. A stronger leader might have set out the benefits thereof in public, rather than bowing to pressure.

Unlikely as it is, if there were to be a renewed coalition between SPD/Grüne, then the latter party would surely be the larger of the two and in the position to nominate a Chancellor. Perish the thought!
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Odan
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:02 pm

KLDC10 wrote:
The 'Atomausstieg' was pushed by the Greens during their coalition with Schroeder's SPD, and the whole circus was compounded by Merkel's knee-jerk reaction to the events in Fukushima. Deciding to abandon a perfectly safe, clean source of abundant power was a very poor decision. A stronger leader might have set out the benefits thereof in public, rather than bowing!


That is one way of seeing it. But maybe she just used the chance she got to kill a political rival.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:24 pm

Had Merkel stepped down several years ago, statues would have been erected for her all over Germany. Now? Not so much...
 
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Zeppi
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:30 am

KLDC10 wrote:
That's true. There was some conversation about the energy policy of Die Grünen in the CivAv thread about Munich Airport's (postponed) third runway. The 'Atomausstieg' was pushed by the Greens during their coalition with Schroeder's SPD, and the whole circus was compounded by Merkel's knee-jerk reaction to the events in Fukushima. Deciding to abandon a perfectly safe, clean source of abundant power was a very poor decision. A stronger leader might have set out the benefits thereof in public, rather than bowing to pressure.


Pretty much yes. Shows how the greens are utterly clueless when it comes to really tackling the issues at hand. They poop their panties when they only hear the word "nuclear", yet your average green voter plus most of the party delegates don't even know how a reactor actually works. Of course wind turbines are bad too because they might disturb birds. Same for solar parks, they disturb animals on the ground. They protest violently against coal mining currently, yet at the same time they are protesting against job reductions at RWE as mines are closing down and less workforce is required. Basically for the greens power should just come out of the power plug :D
Same for the diesel debate, up until a few years ago diesels were advertised greatly as they have a lower CO2 output than petrol, to reduce particle emissions the cumbustion chamber temeratures were ever increased and now, well surprise, NO2 is the big bad boy and everyone should just scrap their diesel immediately and buy a petrol or electic car. That's very ecological of course, I mean scrapping/recycling all those more or less new cars takes no energy at all, and batteries apparently grow on trees with cute colourful butterflies on them...

And all the other parties aren't really much better currently, seems to me they're simply afraid of tackling major issues fearing that the change might be too drastic. Hence why I'd love to see Merz make it to chancellor, we need a rational guy with brains at the top again who handles stuff the "german way" - fast, efficient and effective. It was a joy to watch his first press conference - calm voice, to the point, very focused, very rational. Exact opposite of the likes of Nahles or Hofreiter, who shout away at 100 decibel for half an hour. IMHO someone who needs to shout or even raise their voice to make a point automatically disqualifies themself.
 
WIederling
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:50 am

Zeppi wrote:
Really interesting times ahead indeed. I almost spilled my coffee the first time I heard that Merz will run for the chair, if he wins and decides to go for chancellor too I might actually vote CDU for the first time in 16 years again.


You can vote AfD today to the same effect and be done with it.

Merz and his "Leitkultur" Klüngel are a major cause of the problems we see with Turkey.

People like Merz lack competence to lead a modern democracy.
( unfortunately all the major parties lack people that actually could do the job. No vision, no target.
IMHO Brandt/Bahr were the last that had any real path planned.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
KLDC10
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:40 am

Zeppi wrote:
Same for the diesel debate, up until a few years ago diesels were advertised greatly as they have a lower CO2 output than petrol, to reduce particle emissions the cumbustion chamber temeratures were ever increased and now, well surprise, NO2 is the big bad boy and everyone should just scrap their diesel immediately and buy a petrol or electic car. That's very ecological of course, I mean scrapping/recycling all those more or less new cars takes no energy at all, and batteries apparently grow on trees with cute colourful butterflies on them...


This seems to be a considerable problem across Europe. Governments encouraged their citizens to buy diesel cars instead of petrol, and then slapped those same citizens with 'Fahrverboten' and other silly sanctions when they realized their mistake. Now diesel drivers are forced to pay for the incompetence of the government, which is unacceptable to me. At some point of course, technology will develop sufficiently to make electric cars the obvious choice, but that has to be allowed to happen naturally. You can't force innovation.

Zeppi wrote:
And all the other parties aren't really much better currently, seems to me they're simply afraid of tackling major issues fearing that the change might be too drastic. Hence why I'd love to see Merz make it to chancellor, we need a rational guy with brains at the top again who handles stuff the "german way" - fast, efficient and effective. It was a joy to watch his first press conference - calm voice, to the point, very focused, very rational. Exact opposite of the likes of Nahles or Hofreiter, who shout away at 100 decibel for half an hour. IMHO someone who needs to shout or even raise their voice to make a point automatically disqualifies themself.


I speak German, so I caught up with Nahles press-conference in the 'Willy Brand Haus' in Berlin yesterday after the party crisis meeting following the debacle in Hessen. It's amazing how one can use so many words to say so little ;) Essentially the SPD has decided to simply stand together for the moment and choose their plan after the new leader of the CDU is elected. No vision, no sense of urgency, no dynamism. It is sad to see that this is what has become of one of the oldest and (at one time) most successful social democratic parties in Europe.

Odan wrote:
That is one way of seeing it. But maybe she just used the chance she got to kill a political rival.


True, but she did so by adopting their policies and abandoning her own, which in my view is a win for the Greens ;)

WIederling wrote:
Merz and his "Leitkultur" Klüngel are a major cause of the problems we see with Turkey.


I don't see a problem with a 'Leitkultur', which promotes integration, rather than marginalization.
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WIederling
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:34 am

KLDC10 wrote:
I don't see a problem with a 'Leitkultur', which promotes integration, rather than marginalization.


The "Leitkultur" campaign was never about integration
but about "Christian intrinsic cultural superiority" and a
strong "Submit" sent to everyone else.

Plain conservative hate talk.
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seahawk
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:11 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Had Merkel stepped down several years ago, statues would have been erected for her all over Germany. Now? Not so much...


I can not name one post war chancellor that has statues in a number of towns in Germany - far less in most towns.
 
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Zeppi
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:51 pm

WIederling wrote:
Merz and his "Leitkultur" Klüngel are a major cause of the problems we see with Turkey.

Care to elaborate?

The problems with turkey/turks are solely due to, well, turkey and turks. They refuse integration fundamentally, hence why we have turks (especially females) who live here since 30 years yet speak no word of german. Hence they are the worst performing group of immigrants, with only 5% achieving an academic degree. And no, that's not due to racism or inequalities in the education system, this is only due to their culture and their refusal to adapt to our free society. Overall they're still a very primitive people, one might even consider them tribal, where family honor and religious honor, even national honor ranks way above education. That's also the reason why we saw up to 30K turks marching for Erdogan in Cologne. Grotesque when you think about it, they live in a free society yet worship an islamofascist dictator.

I'm with you on the C part of the CDU though. They should completely drop all the religious bull and solely focus on rational aspects, religion has exactly zero business in politics. Which of course is a bit hard to achieve when a quite large share of voters, especially in Bavaria, are still quite religious. Ah well, ohne can hope...

And no, Merz is certainly a far cry from the AfD. I think he is the only one with enough rationality and competence, especially in the financial department, to start a turnaround in german politics.

KLDC10 wrote:
I speak German, so I caught up with Nahles press-conference in the 'Willy Brand Haus' in Berlin yesterday after the party crisis meeting following the debacle in Hessen. It's amazing how one can use so many words to say so little ;) Essentially the SPD has decided to simply stand together for the moment and choose their plan after the new leader of the CDU is elected. No vision, no sense of urgency, no dynamism. It is sad to see that this is what has become of one of the oldest and (at one time) most successful social democratic parties in Europe.

Yeah, looks like they want to aim for that 10% or less in the next Bundestag election. The CDU could even follow suit if they elect Kramp Karrenbauer, the result would be a massive rise for the AfD and the Greens. Now that would be a fun coalition wouldn't it? :box:
 
Odan
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:04 pm

The problem of the SPD is that their base imploded when they did what needed to be done. Still they pretend that Schroeder came from Mars. Until they stop trying to please generation twitter and start returning to actual politics they're done. At least IMHO.
 
PanHAM
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:15 pm

Schroder did not come from Mars, he flew in from Venus. :-)

Never voted fr the guy but what came after him was far worse and totally incompetent and lacjing Charisma as well as the intellect to lead a Party. The old SPD does not deserve Nahles and neither Mr. 100% Schulz. But if they carry on like that they will end up with Kevin Kuehnast. That would be the ultimate joke.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
PanHAM
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Re: Merkel announces her intention to stand down.

Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:30 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Had Merkel stepped down several years ago, statues would have been erected for her all over Germany. Now? Not so much...



No, we had enough statues to last for the next 100 years. The last one OI can remember was the statue of Willy Brandt and the SPD is so ashamed of it that they hide it inside their HQ building
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