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BawliBooch
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Indian Politics Megathread

Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:01 am

It can be difficult to have a discussion on Aviation - Civil or Military - without discussing the politics of it.

How do we discuss Air India disinvestment without mentioning the roll-on effect on the economy and its implications in the elections next year? Our mod's don't like this.

Hence this thread to discuss the politics.

As always - keep it civil please.
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:08 am

Spicejet is surviving purely because their owner Ajay Singh is close to the Supreme Leader!

Ajay Singh worked on Supreme Leader's election campaign and was the genious who coined the now infamous "Ab ki baar" campaign slogan. He was suitably rewarded with control of spicejet by kicking out the Marans.

Spicejet was owned by the Maran family who also owned the Sun TV network and had close connections with the UPA which was in power from 2004-2014. After the change of Govt in 2014, The airline was grounded overnight allegedly for non-payment of dues. They had a 3 month lien from fuel companies like all airlines in the country do. But immediately after the Govt changed in 2014, state owned fuel companies suddenly took the call that the airline would have to be put on cash & carry - meaning pay fuel bills immediately. It effectively meant the grounding of scores of Spice flights. The Maran's saw the writing on the wall and sold off to Ajay Singh. voila! The state owned fuel companies restored the 3 month line of credit and the airline was flying again!

SpiceJet flights grounded as oil companies stop fuel supply

That could happen again with Air India and Spicejet.
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binayak
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:52 am

Good one.
However do remember to keep IndiGo /Spicejet enthusiasts away!!
Then we can have complete discussion of real politics behind Indian aviation.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:22 am

There has been some discussion about a possible stake sale in the troubled Jet Airways.

I have tried to look into the complicated Jet ownership saga at the beginning of my career hoping for a big story. In particular, we were looking at the "Dawood" angle - the allegation that infamous mafia don based in Dubai, Dawood Ibrahim was the actual owner of Jet Airways and mafia money was propping up the airline. In the interest of full disclosure, one Delhi based politician Sahib Singh Verma was actively goading journalists to chase the Jet Airway's-Dawood ownership story. This got particularly aggressive after the murder of Thakiyudeen Wahid, the owner and CEO of jet's main competitor at the time East West Airlines. Wahid was shot dead by the mafia in broad daylight when he was travelling to work. While SSV was wining & dining journalists (including yours truly) to pursue the story, Another politician from the same party, Pramod Mahajan otoh was actively dissuading journalists, and when that didnt work bullying editors into dropping the chase.

To be sure, we tried very hard but found absolutely nothing! I am pretty sure Goyal was doing some pretty major jhol with all the complicated network of holding companies regd in different tax havens and a lot of cross holding thing going on. Jet had access to seemingly endless supply of cash coming from somewhere. They were flying 737-300/400's at a time when all the competition was flying 737-200's. Expensive game. Where was this money coming from? Goyal also found the money to buy back the stake held by Kuwait Airways & Gulf Airways. Again, where was he getting the money from? As my editor said in closing, "Unethical but not illegal". I am given to understand, that Jet cleaned up a lot of this complicated tangle around 2005. Perhaps the Emirati Sovereign Funds were swapped in at that time?

The same thing applied to Kingfisher as well and now applies to Indigo. Holding companies registered in tax havens doing deals with other companies in which they have cross holdings, SLB's being done with the same bunch of Leasing companies with familiar names - again registered in tax havens. Interesting that names of holding companies that popped up when we were looking into Kingfisher are showing up again when we look at Indigo! Exact same bunch of names! Hubli Leasing, Oceans Air, Ocean Aviation, Magic Aviation? Who really owns these companies?

What is the common thread here? Money is being funneled into India from holding companies registered in tax havens. But how are these companies getting this money? Aircraft are being bought & sold by leasing companies whose exact ownership is unknown But we can trace a pattern.

My gut feeling is that airlines are using slush money from politicians who are funneling money into these tax havens into holding companies who are then routing it back to India. I also believe that both Kingfisher in the past and Indigo now have investments from the same bunch of individuals - one of whom was a former Civil Aviation Minister. So ALL airlines in India are using Taxpayer's directly or indirectly! :P

Any rookie journalist out there who is interested in pursuing this story further? If we cant get it published by a mainstream newspaper in India, we can try to get it out through a Canadian newspaper. Or at the very least, a wikileaks style blog.
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binayak
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:39 am

At least it was wise on the part of goyal to leave dependence on the slush money in 2007 . A reason why it kept flying even after its terrible state during GFC.
Kingfisher succumbed to its fate and the current "star" of Indian aviation does all those things in a large scale unlike the previous players . They'll never learn!! Will they?
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:13 am

BawliBooch wrote:
I have tried to look into the complicated Jet ownership saga at the beginning of my career hoping for a big story. In particular, we were looking at the "Dawood" angle - the allegation that infamous mafia don based in Dubai, Dawood Ibrahim was the actual owner of Jet Airways and mafia money was propping up the airline. In the interest of full disclosure, one Delhi based politician Sahib Singh Verma was actively goading journalists to chase the Jet Airway's-Dawood ownership story. This got particularly aggressive after the murder of Thakiyudeen Wahid, the owner and CEO of jet's main competitor at the time East West Airlines. Wahid was shot dead by the mafia in broad daylight when he was travelling to work. While SSV was wining & dining journalists (including yours truly) to pursue the story, Another politician from the same party, Pramod Mahajan otoh was actively dissuading journalists, and when that didnt work bullying editors into dropping the chase.


It slipped my mind when I was typing the original post - its been 22 years since actively working on the story - but every link in the mess of chains we checked out while digging into the Jet story seemed to end at Pramod Mahajan, his personal secretary Vivek Moitra, or someone connected to these two personally. It was too much of a coincidence and put into perspective PM's attempts to stop the journalists from pushing. The major financial cleanup at Jet Airways in 2005-2006 happened just immediately after Pramod Mahajan's murder and the suspicious death of Mahajan's secretary Vivek of a Drug OD. Another Coincidence?

If it matters, Pramod's son Rahul Mahajan was a pilot in Jet Airways whose aviation career was cut short after a hard landing/runway excursion incident at HYD. Finally Mahajan's secretary was found Cocaine OD'd in a bathtub with Rahul Mahajan.
Pramod Mahajan's secretary dies, Rahul in intensive care unit

Another from Vir Sanghvi
Pimps, fixers & tentwallahs

Another coincidence wonly! :P
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:13 pm

Good thread BowliBooch. It is getting difficult to have an honest discussion in the upside down world of a.net where fact is a fiction and fiction is a fact. It is funny how civil aviation discussion was centered around die AI die, now realized AI is not going to go away, they are after 9W.

Why can't they find a way to survive and prosper rather than betting on someone going out of business.

I read the term roundtripping but not clear how it works. Are some airlines using the same technique to generate working capital or using some other techniques?
 
binayak
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:42 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Good thread BowliBooch. It is getting difficult to have an honest discussion in the upside down world of a.net where fact is a fiction and fiction is a fact. It is funny how civil aviation discussion was centered around die AI die, now realized AI is not going to go away, they are after 9W.

Why can't they find a way to survive and prosper rather than betting on someone going out of business.
?


Well what better can you expect from enthusiasts according to whom an airline whose non fuel cask has been increasing exponentially is "well run ".
BTW their favorite airline has recently posted a loss of 652cr inr.
They'll keep on comparing the cask of LCCs with FSCs although never see the gap in rask of the two.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:15 pm

After blaming competition for not going out of business even after extensive CDPL (Capacity Dumping and Price Lowering), Indigo management is disappointed at its employees.

This is getting better by the day.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:46 pm

Allegedly, Trump refused Modi's invitation to be the chief guest at India's Republic Day.

Somebody's feelings will be definitely hurt.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:58 pm

Opinion about the AI debt restructuring story.

For the proposal to get the Modi's approval, it should meet two conditions

1) Does it help Modi to win more seats in parliament?
2) Does it help the State of Gujarat?

Neither condition is true, so Modi is not going to waste money on AI.

Also, the two planes worth $580 Million are a total waste because Modi is not going to the US anymore, as long a Trump is president of the USA.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:35 am

What is the scoop with TATA-Jet alliance? There is an upswing in media coverage. Who is behind this choreography?

Also, there is news about Modi's involvement. It appears TATAs are asking Indian banks and Airport Authority will take a haircut. With Rahul on Rafael/Ambani case, I doubt Modi will ask PSBs to take a haircut to help TATAs
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:02 am

The game being played now has been played before when SpiceJet changed hands and Maran's sold SG to Ajay "Ab ki baar" Singh. Squeeze the lenders of the target airline to try and force it to a closure; bring in angel investors favored by lobbyists or the govt and voila! The lender taps are open again! It is the exact same game being played again but with different players. Also different this time, is unlike the Maran family, Naresh Goyal is not going to go quietly into the sunset without a tough fight.

My sources tell me, that though Naresh Goyal is coming round to selling off his stake in Jet Airway's, his team is bargaining hard to retain control of JetLite (formerly Sahara) which remains on paper as a separate airline with 10 737 aircraft (3 -700's, 4 -800's and 2 -900ER). Which means even if the Tata's or Dhoot's buy out Naresh Goyal in Jet Airways, the wily fox will remain in the game with JetLite.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:10 pm

If CBI charges are true, one PNB official issued LoUs worth $2.1Billion to Nirav Modi for 60 grams of gold and a couple of diamond rings, That is less than 9W's entire liability, including payables.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:35 am

BawliBooch wrote:
There has been some discussion about a possible stake sale in the troubled Jet Airways.

I.

My gut feeling is that airlines are using slush money from politicians who are funneling money into these tax havens into holding companies who are then routing it back to India. I also believe that both Kingfisher in the past and Indigo now have investments from the same bunch of individuals - one of whom was a former Civil Aviation Minister. So ALL airlines in India are using Taxpayer's directly or indirectly! :P

Any rookie journalist out there who is interested in pursuing this story further? If we cant get it published by a mainstream newspaper in India, we can try to get it out through a Canadian newspaper. Or at the very least, a wikileaks style blog.


Are Indian politicians that stupid? Why would you recycle cash into arline investments, rather than real estate?
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:24 am

Its sub-zero outside here in Ville-Marie, so I am going to bring in the New Year with a post on ANET and my favorite Colombian rum! :P

First the Aviation related predictions for 2019 - There has been a lot of bhassad about Jet Airways going down - mainly based on conjecture and PR speak. The related thread on the Av forum went upto 900 posts! But there is good news on that front. Mr.Goyal has managed to "Dial a Loan" after all! A consortium of Public sector banks are now being lined up to bail out Jet after SBI refused to go it alone on that front. Just goes to show that all that hoo-haa about how "things have changed after 2014" was just a pile of cowdung! NOTHING has really changed in India. Our politicians have drawn a ring around the pile of capital and business opportunities and they control access to both! Success in business is still a case of who you know and how you work the system to gain access to capital & opportunity. The one thing that had changed post 2014 was that the traditional business houses were finding themselves left out and a group of businessmen from one Indian state were getting priority access to the available capital & opportunity. That period is now over. The Gujarati Mafia is now firmly on the backfoot as Modi (PBUH) finds himself on the backfoot.

Most of Jet employees are getting their base salaries. Its the (substantial) incentives and allowances that had been withheld. All arrears should now be cleared within the month! So its certainly good news for Jet employees in 2019! NG has smartly used this downturn phase to weed out non performing routes and staff. With funds coming in, they will have emerged stronger from this crisis than they ever were!

As for other airlines that had been gathering around like Vultures hoping to feed on Jet's carcass? Well - SpiceJet is the most vulnerable of the lot, but their owner is deeply embedded in the current political ecosystem. Ajay Singh worked on the Modi 2014 campaign and was the genius who coined the now infamous "Ab ki baar" slogan! So they should be fine as long as Modi remains the PM.

Indigo has its own problems now, and they are going to be huge in 2019. Operationally, things are not as hunky-dory as they seem! We don't hear about it much because the PR network had other targets to attack. But with Jet having saved its corner, the PR network will turn their gunsights on Indigo! Tata-SQ are going to be most disappointed! They invested the most in this PR campaign hoping to wipe up Jet's customer base and pick up the slots for cheap. But Ms.Radia is like NG - they both never give up! She failed to take down Jet for her clients, but she will move on to Indigo. Indigo is certainly the next target and across the next few months you are going to see a string of negative articles in the press and posts on forums like ANET about this airline.

The case against Indigo? Well, the loony Swamy(remember him?) is sitting on a ton of "evidence" that links Indigo ownership to Rahul baba! :roll: So expect notices from not just DGCA/AAIB for routine operational violations but also from ED and FIPB! Accompanied by extensive media coverage of even the most basic operational issues. A number of MP's have already started hard lobbying against Indigo in Parliament and its only going to get much worse. You can bet its going to be discussed on ANET too! :P


Air India? Well they are not going anywhere! They are the proverbial "Ghar ki murgi" - always there to take the blame and do their work regardless. Whoever comes or goes, Air India will always be around! :old: Some sources indicated back in Nov that they were looking to acquire 30+ A320's from some Chinese company for AIX. These were to be dedicated for domestic LCC ops. Plans are good, but with 23 aircraft grounded for lack of spares, I don't see that happening.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:52 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... OW07Q?il=0

It would be nice if India moved into the world of not punishing women for our shitty mammalian reproductive organs. I'd rather lay eggs like a bird or reptile if I could.

Does the ban really apply to women who aren't bleeding at the time of entry? Usually traditions of treating menstrual fluid as religious impurity only apply to times of bleeding. What about women who have had a hysterectomy?
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:56 pm

My prediction, There is a high probability Modi/Shah will win again in May '19.

Here is the basis for my own theory. I may be wrong.

Any businessman/celebrity speaks against the king will be dealt with by ED or IT.
Any politician speaks against the king will be dealt with by CBI, ED or IT.
Media outlets are bought or brainwashed. The North Korean news lady has more integrity than any news anchor on Indian TV. They can spread false news with a straight face and fake integrity, passion and emotions.
10 agencies got blanket approval for surveillance to put down any dissent. Not sure even North Korea/China can match this.
All top administrative/law enforcement officers are entrapped. There is no way out other than continuing support.
Election commission seems to be happy to disfranchise millions of voters at king's wish.
Only Modi/Shah and their friends have access to INR 2,000 denomination bills and no one else. Law enforcement/media can be used to transport and distribute this king's cash.
EVM's integrity seems to be questionable at best.

So all bases are covered, just announcing the winner and celebrations are pending.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:06 am

Jouhou wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-temple/two-women-defy-centuries-old-ban-by-entering-indian-temple-idUSKCN1OW07Q?il=0

It would be nice if India moved into the world of not punishing women for our shitty mammalian reproductive organs. I'd rather lay eggs like a bird or reptile if I could.

Does the ban really apply to women who aren't bleeding at the time of entry? Usually traditions of treating menstrual fluid as religious impurity only apply to times of bleeding. What about women who have had a hysterectomy?


I was honestly surprised to see reports in the western media, including French language channels, pickup the Sabarimala story!


Case history - Women off all ages have always been allowed in the Sabarimala for 100's of years for the annual pilgrimmage. The "ban" on entry of women between ages of 10 and 50 was placed in 1991 by a group of Tantris (official priests) known to be close to the RSS. The year is crucial - 1991 was the year when the loony right wing RSS-BJP raised the flag of "Hindutva" (hindu consolidation) with the Ram Temple controversy. It took them from 2 seats in Parliament in 1989 to 180 in 1996! Ram Temple worked to radicalise the population and galvanise votes in North India but it has little to no traction in South India. That's where Sabarimala temple issue comes in.

A group of feminists (or FemiNazi's as our Supreme Leader has called them) first filed a review petition in 1995 challenging the priests orders in court. In typical Indian fashion, the Supreme Court delivered its judgement in 2018 - 23 years late. The SC judgement was very clear in upholding the ban on women entry as illegal. The RSS-BJP jumped on this issue to polarize people on communal lines. Their goons are violating SC ruling by staging violent protests against women seeking entry after the SC judgement seeking to build their vote share in a region where they have one just 1 parliamentary seat in 70 years (1998-2003).

The BJP won an absolute majority in 2014 but look set to loose the General Elections 3 months from now. 3 days after the BJP lost 3 states in the Hindi heartland in the North, the Ram Temple issue, quietly buried for 30 years was dusted and bought back out. The Sabarimala temple issue has been revived with the same goal in the South.

Will this work in South India to BJP's favor? Well for one thing, the RSS-BJP's Ram Temple movement pits Hindus against Muslims. Their beef and anti-missionary campaigns pit Hindus against Christians. Both issues worked in the Hindi Hearltand (north india) because the "other" were different religions. The Sabarimala campaign otoh is against women - will it work in a region where the sex ratio is pitted against men (more women-men in south India as compared to the North). Also the southern states have much higher literacy levels (Kerala is India's only 100% literate state). As of now, the 5 southern states are completely free of the BJP rule. Emotive issues in the North like beef and temple don't have the same traction in the south.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:18 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-temple/two-women-defy-centuries-old-ban-by-entering-indian-temple-idUSKCN1OW07Q?il=0

It would be nice if India moved into the world of not punishing women for our shitty mammalian reproductive organs. I'd rather lay eggs like a bird or reptile if I could.

Does the ban really apply to women who aren't bleeding at the time of entry? Usually traditions of treating menstrual fluid as religious impurity only apply to times of bleeding. What about women who have had a hysterectomy?


I was honestly surprised to see reports in the western media, including French language channels, pickup the Sabarimala story!


Case history - Women off all ages have always been allowed in the Sabarimala for 100's of years for the annual pilgrimmage. The "ban" on entry of women between ages of 10 and 50 was placed in 1991 by a group of Tantris (official priests) known to be close to the RSS. The year is crucial - 1991 was the year when the loony right wing RSS-BJP raised the flag of "Hindutva" (hindu consolidation) with the Ram Temple controversy. It took them from 2 seats in Parliament in 1989 to 180 in 1996! Ram Temple worked to radicalise the population and galvanise votes in North India but it has little to no traction in South India. That's where Sabarimala temple issue comes in.

A group of feminists (or FemiNazi's as our Supreme Leader has called them) first filed a review petition in 1995 challenging the priests orders in court. In typical Indian fashion, the Supreme Court delivered its judgement in 2018 - 23 years late. The SC judgement was very clear in upholding the ban on women entry as illegal. The RSS-BJP jumped on this issue to polarize people on communal lines. Their goons are violating SC ruling by staging violent protests against women seeking entry after the SC judgement seeking to build their vote share in a region where they have one just 1 parliamentary seat in 70 years (1998-2003).

The BJP won an absolute majority in 2014 but look set to loose the General Elections 3 months from now. 3 days after the BJP lost 3 states in the Hindi heartland in the North, the Ram Temple issue, quietly buried for 30 years was dusted and bought back out. The Sabarimala temple issue has been revived with the same goal in the South.

Will this work in South India to BJP's favor? Well for one thing, the RSS-BJP's Ram Temple movement pits Hindus against Muslims. Their beef and anti-missionary campaigns pit Hindus against Christians. Both issues worked in the Hindi Hearltand (north india) because the "other" were different religions. The Sabarimala campaign otoh is against women - will it work in a region where the sex ratio is pitted against men (more women-men in south India as compared to the North). Also the southern states have much higher literacy levels (Kerala is India's only 100% literate state). As of now, the 5 southern states are completely free of the BJP rule. Emotive issues in the North like beef and temple don't have the same traction in the south.


Thank you for the background! Far more descriptive than the Reuters article. I do think the West tends to be captivated in watching the world's most populous democracy evolve as a society.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:54 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
My prediction, There is a high probability Modi/Shah will win again in May '19.


The closest India came to a full blown dictatorship was with Indira Gandhi - a woman who Nixon described as "That old witch"! But India still defied predictions and kicked her out in 1977! There was similar speculation in 2004 - how a Vajpayee victory was "inevitable". I was reporting in India on that campaign and I saw the huge level of discontent in rural MP where I was posted. But even then, I must confess to have bought into the high voltage "India Shining" media blitz and loosing my objectivity. Had to eat humble crow when the BJP was trounced in 2004. The lesson I learnt then was that Indian voters are emotional and unpredictable. They can go either ways and no psephologist can ever predict the results. Another lesson I learnt was to ignore the Delhi media machine and listen to our ground level stringers. And yes, keenly follow the journalists reporting for the local vernacular media - The Jaagran's and Nai Dunia's and others who got their fingers on the pulse of the people. And don't buy into the "inevitability" line! EVER!

I would list a couple of counter points to dtwhyd.

1. Businessmen have a unique knack of picking the winning side. In 2014, they almost unanimously backed the BJP which meant the BJP had more resources to fight the elections and wipe up more seats. Which is why the BJP-RSS keeps touting the "inevitability" factor - send a message that they are here to stay for 25 years. Stay in Line!
But now, especially after the BJP's resounding rout in the 3 Hindi heartland states, that inevitability factor lies in tatters. The Congress has re-emerged as a force to reckon with and business groups are once again flocking to the Congress. They are hedging bets yes. But its no longer one sided like it was.

2. Politicians who spoke out lived in fear of ED or IT cases foisted on them by Central agencies. Mayawati in particular - who has an impact in all 543 seats in the country. But even Mayawati has signed up to the MGB. The first alliance for 2019 announced was the alliance for Uttar Pradesh where Mayawati and SP will be fighting in alliance. Very crucial. There is less fear now as any move by central agencies will be seen as political.

3. Media outlets have destroyed their credibility in past 5 years. News channels like republic and times now are now seen as India's version of Fox News. they couldnt make an impact in MP/RAJ/CG even though they tried very hard. Modi's latest interview with the "North Korean lady" was openly derided in the media in a manner that was thought impossible 3 months back! Editors who asked journos to "close" a story out of fear of Modi-Shah have now found their voice back. Political commentators like Pritish Nandy who were silent for a long time have also found their voice back! Its a Noel miracle! :)

Another signifant factor is the civil service. No govt in India can do anything without the support of pliant bureaucrats. Many officials fell in line with Modi-Shah because they bought into the argument that the fascist rule is here to stay.

So what changed? That inevitibality factor that Modi carried around like a crown lies in tatters after the complete rout in the Hindi heartland. That fear of Modi-Shah has now dissipated. The civil service will be less pliable to Modi-Shah's diktat's now because they dont want to be caught on the wrong side as some of them were in 2004 when the BJP lost the general elections beating all predictions. Even an Anand Mahindra is speaking out!

The political alignments emerging on the ground today make a BJP victory in 2019 look very doubtful as of now. The South with over 145 seats is "BJP free" as of now. Congress has firmed up alliances with the DMK (TN), JDS(Karnataka) and TDP(Andhra). Congress remains a force in Kerala where the battle has anyway been between congress and communists with BJP getting less than 4% of the vote. The combined opposition is expected to lap up 135 of these 145 seats in the South. In the North, the 3 states where the BJP just lost state elections, contributed over 60 seats to the BJP tally in 2014. Expect the BJP to lose atleast 30 of them to the Congress.

UP with over 80 seats is key. BJP won 73 out of these 80 in 2014 with 34% of the vote because the opposition was divided. Now with SP+BSP fighting in alliance and the Congress giving "friendly fights" in 74/80 seats to cut the BJP's Brahmin vote, the most they can expect to win is 24 seats even according to RSS psephologists like Yashwant Deshmukh. A loss of 80+ seats just in the Hindi Heartland which brings the BJP tally down to <200. And this is just in North India "cowbelt". Punjab now has a Congress govt which will contribute atleast 10+ seats. Bengal which is a straight fight between TMC and the Communists might see some seats go to the BJP because of the vote split. The North East, Tripura is a gain for the BJP (2 seats) but the rest of the North East, the powerful Baptist church will make its voice heard and remains a significant challenge for the BJP.

This is not 2014. The opposition vote was fragmented in 2014, its united now. The AAP alone cut Congress votes in 67 constituencies which Cong might have won if the AAP had not contested. AAP dont matter outside delhi now. Its this "index of opposition unity" that bought Modi to power with just 31% of the popular vote.
Plus, Modi's ill thought out schemes like Demonetisation and GST have ruined the economy and bought out peoples anger. The Rafale Scam is picking up traction despite the North Korean media's attempts to pull a veil over them. Social Media and WhatsApp which was Modi's biggest weapon in the run up to 2014 is now turned against him.

If the BJP wins less than 250 seats, they will still form the govt but Modi will not be PM. If the BJP wins less than 200, and Congress scores less than 140, it will be a non-BJP non-Cong Third Front Govt. If the BJP wins less than 180 and Congress wins more than 160, we will have a Congress+allies govt.

Either ways, it looks like end game for Modi. And the desperation shows. The move to revive the Ram Temple movement after 18 years smacks of desperation. The hurried move to push through the Triple Talaq bill through parliament smacks of desperation. What else can he do? Fix EVM's? As the congress showed in MP/RAJ/CG, that can be beaten by keeping the party election machinery in high gear and vigilant. And i fyou listen to the local stringers and vernacular media, Rahul's "Chowkidaar Chor Hain" jibe has hit bulls eye! His speeches are now going viral on WhatsApp across the Hindi heartland.

The RSS knows this very well too. They know their best case scenario is to dump Modi asap. A top RSS official, Bhaiyyaji has been sent to Modi-Shah thrice in the past 2 months. Rumors have been circulating of Modi stepping down before the 2019 elections to be replaced by someone else. Sushma Swaraj and the RSS choice of Nitin Gadkari are openly touted as suitable replacements. The end of the Modi-Shah terror and Gujarati Mafia seems near.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:28 am

What can Modi-Shah do to prevent being sent into exile as is looking likely?


1. Revive the Ram Temple issue by bringing in an ordinance. It will be shot down in the courts but it will serve as a shot across the bow to his core votebank.
2. Dial a Riot. The old strategy that bought him in power in Gujarat but this time on a national scale. Stage a communal incident and organise nationwide riots to polarise communities. Has worked for in North India.

3. Stage a war with Pakistan. Kargil Redux! Aggressive patrolling across the borders to provoke a Pak response followed by a limited war. Nothing works like post-war nationalism to get over anti-incumbency!

4. Last step. Declare Emergency and dismiss non-BJP state govts across the country. Use Emergency provisions to clamp down on dissent, arrest opposition leaders! In one year, use the RBI reserves to back vast civil projects across the country to win back public approval, stage a few nuclear tests for added impact and conduct elections after 2 years.

With Modi-Shah that is a possibility. What havent these two done to retain power?

The RSS can step in and order him to step down. Most RSS -BJP MP's will back the RSS choice of Gadkari. Yogi could stage a contest but it remains to be seen how much of that will work.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:11 am

@BawliBooch, Hope you are correct. While opposition somehow scored three states in Hindi belt, TS assembly appears to be a successful dry run for Modi/Shah. While TRS win itself is welcomed by most, but their coziness with Modi scares people. While Hindi belt might have gathered courage, south seems to have lost courage. TDP seems to be getting weaker by day. TRS(TS) + YSRCP(AP) + Jana Sena(AP) + AIADMK(TN) + Karnataka and Kerala should add enough seats to put Modi back in power.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:41 pm

Apart from the anti-incumbency against Modi, there is another key factor - alliances. The formerly divided opposition which fought separately last time is fighting together this time. Will 69% defeat the 31% vote share of the BJP? Rahul's greatest success in the past year has been his relentless touring of the country stitching up the alliances with state parties. This should prove to be the game changer.

Andhra - TDP and Congress fight alone - YSRCP will sweep both state and Lok Sabha elections. It will be a rout for the Congress+TDP. If they fight in an alliance however, the tables are turned. TDP gets more seats in the State Assembly, while Congress gets more seats in the Lok Sabha. 60-40 division either way. There is no guarantee that YSRCP will go with the BJP - that would depend on whether the BJP gets >200 seats. That looks doubtful, but not unlikely.

Telangana - the Cong miscalculated its chances in the state which reposed its faith in the TRS. But the TRS itself is rooting for a non-Cong non-BJP front in the center. KCR is actively campaigning for that. IMO, TRS will not support a Modi led BJP govt but will be agreeable to support a BJP govt led by someone else.

Karnataka - Last time BJP got 16/28 seats despite the Modi wave and the fact that Cong-JDS fought separately. If they had fought together in 2014, the BJP would have got barely 2 seats! This is how the weird First past the post system works! This time around, the Cong-JDS are running the state govt together and have announced an alliance for 2019. Assuming there is no anti-incumbency against the BJP central leadership and the 2014 vote share holds, the BJP would lose 14 of the 16 seats it holds, while the Cong would go from 11 to 25! This is according to YR Deshmukhs poll numbers. The Cong camp is going for the kill in Karnataka. Buzz is that seniormost leader Yeddyurappa is being lured to contest under a separate banner. If BJP has Amit Shah, Cong has DKS in Ktaka! :P

Tamil Nadu - ADMK is running the govt now but the big difference is they dont have Ms.Jayalalitha! Plus they have 5 years of anti-incumbency at the state level. The ADMK is tipped to loose 2019 especially with the split into 2 factions benefitting the Cong-DMK alliance. BJP itself has minimal presence in TN and can best hope to ride on the coattails of the ADMK.

Kerala - they have 20 seats and here its been a straight contest between the Congress and the Communists. India's most literate state has had only 1 MP in over 70 years since independence - between 1998 and 2003. In 2014, Cong won 12 and the communists won 8 seats with zero for the BJP. The Sabarimala controversy might help push a few votes their way but not much. Kerala generally rotates the state between Communists and Congress. Congress is confident of sweeping kerala, but the local stringers report favors the Commies. Either ways, slim chances for the BJP.

Apart from alliances and anti-incumbency, let us not discount the effect of the perceived anti-south tilt of the Modi govt. Chandrababu Naidu in particular has gone guns blazing on Modi on the issue of tax sharing. The more prosperous and literate South has been effectively subsidising the North for over 45 years. Chandrababu Naidu to his credit has made this issue resonate with people across the South. In addition, the South has not reacted kindly to the BJP central govt imposing the beef ban. The kerala CM took this issue to court and won. I remember friends sharing celebratory posts on Facebook at the Court order. And Modi has not exactly won hearts with his response to these 2 slaps from the South. His first reaction was to replace local Dravidian languages on signboards and tickets in Railway/Metro stations with Hindi. THAT did not go too well! news of this was well covered up by our North Korean media in Delhi. But there were widespread protests across the South at the time. In Karnataka it was the Hindi Beda/Hindi Venda campaigns - very emotive and effective.

So overall, I would very much doubt the BJP's chances of improving its tally in South India. The battle will be entirely in the North.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:57 pm

There is a significant rider to my above post which assumed that Modi would be the BJP candidate for 2019. The whole game changes if, as is being widely speculated - the RSS steps in and sends Modi into exile and replaces him with someone like Gadkari or Sushma Swaraj. The whole anti-BJP alliance that Rahul baba painstakingly crafted across 2018 will come undone in one second if that happens!

Within UP, traditional rival's SP & BSP have shown unusual spirit of accommodation because the opponent is Modi. I don't see this alliance staying if Modi is replaced. Outside UP, BSP has shown unusual spirit of accommodation again with the congress. This is significant since Mayawati's votebank of Untouchables/Dalits has a significant impact nationwide. I dont see Sister Mayawati being so accommodative towards the Congress if the opponent was not Modi but someone like Gadkari. Same thing in Bengal! Mamata has been super accomodative towards the Congress when the BJP candidate is Modi. Will she continue to gift her paintings (and support)
to Congress if the RSS replaces Modi before 2019? Again - doubt that very much.

Same thing in the south. The JDS in Karnataka and TDP in Andhra will dump the Congress in a heartbeat if the opposing side is someone other than a divisive Modi. It is opposition to a divisive character like Modi that holds Rahul Baba's grand alliance together. If Modi is removed by the RSS, the opposition alliance melts away significantly improving the BJP's chances.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:42 pm

I think Gadkari can save NDA and BJP. He appears to be a good deal maker, also appears to have lot less ego. But he is not a heavenly figure to have a cult following like Modi. He is a typical contractor ready to make a deal some may even say to make a buck.

For me, the world seems to be more cult centric like Modi, Musk, Sir Tim Clark, Sadguru and 300,000 Gurus in India. Is there a place for a run of the mill contractor? The cults with biggest PR budgets are winning, and it takes a long time to break these cults, or I am just too opinionated to believe in these heavenly figures.

If Gadkari is the PM candidate, even TDP may come around. Alteast infrastructure in India will get a major boost. He will not create hurdles like Modi/Shah based solely on ego.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:22 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
For me, the world seems to be more cult centric like Modi, Musk, Sir Tim Clark, Sadguru and 300,000 Gurus in India. Is there a place for a run of the mill contractor? The cults with biggest PR budgets are winning, and it takes a long time to break these cults, or I am just too opinionated to believe in these heavenly figures.

Modi did not have a "cult" following before 2012. Infact he was on a list of politicians banned by EU/US from flying to those countries because of Modi's role in the 2002 anti-Muslim pogrom. That cult building was an expensive PR exercise run by APCO Worldwide (google it). The expensive IT Cell setup by them at Nadiad(2012-2014) and Delhi (post 2014) which was/is dedicated to trolling and abusing Modi critics on Social Media and building up the cult was also expensive. Who paid for these expenses? The trust funds run by the Adanis and Ambanis which have now got their return back from Modi.

Gadkari has extensive connections of his own with the corporate world - something Madam Sushma lacks. With the Gujarat Mafia and Modi-Shah out, these guys get to play. So they will gladly pump in the resources required for this cult building exercise!

dtw2hyd wrote:
If Gadkari is the PM candidate, even TDP may come around. Alteast infrastructure in India will get a major boost. He will not create hurdles like Modi/Shah based solely on ego.


If Gadkari/Sushma is the PM candidate instead of Modi, even a hardcore JNUite like me might vote for the BJP! Don't underestimate the level of anti-congressism in the country. The only reason to vote Congress is they have the ability to take people along which is important in a diverse country like ours. Modi is not THAT person! Many people are tired of the disgusting, divisive politics of this man! If the BJP can offer an alternative who is not as coarse, divisive and acidic as Modi-Shah, many people will prefer that option. Its game over for the Congress then!

PS: Between Gadkari and Sushma, I am biased towards Sushma Swaraj. She is from my state but that is only part of the reason. I think its time a woman got a chance to run the ship called India. Sadly, she does not have the kind of corporate backing that a Gadkari can swing.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:25 pm

Very much appreciate posters on this thread. It is difficult to follow Indian politics although I have worked at it since the late 50s. Thanks

ps - anyone have a blog recommendation they would recommend?
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:41 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Very much appreciate posters on this thread. It is difficult to follow Indian politics although I have worked at it since the late 50s. Thanks

ps - anyone have a blog recommendation they would recommend?


Follow Ajai Shukla's blog(http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/) who writes extensively on defense and strategic affairs. Immense respect for the man. Also follow Swati Chaturvedi and Rohini Singh on twitter - these 2 girls have shown immense bravery in the past 4 years. Shashi Tharoor is another person to watch - This is a man who can teach English to the English! You will learn one new English word every week for sure!

Some western journalists like Mark Tully, Pierre Fitter, William Dalyrymple are also very knowledgeable about India affairs.

All of the above are also very active on twitter.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:21 pm

When I saw this quote
“Ministry has taken serious note (of the incident) and we will review it on Tuesday,” Civil Aviation Secretary R N Choubey said in response to a PTI query.
https://www.livemint.com/Companies/P0Kj ... oud-b.html

Are they talking about promissory note(sale deed) to a Vasant Vihar villa or INR 2000 note(bill)?
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:29 am

The Indigo PR ecosystem is pretty strong! 2 threads to discuss this topic were taken off by moderators without any intimation!

How can incidents as serious as engine problems not be discussed?

dtw2hyd wrote:
When I saw this quote
“Ministry has taken serious note (of the incident) and we will review it on Tuesday,” Civil Aviation Secretary R N Choubey said in response to a PTI query.
https://www.livemint.com/Companies/P0Kj ... oud-b.html

Are they talking about promissory note(sale deed) to a Vasant Vihar villa or INR 2000 note(bill)?


Notes by babu's always make for hilarious reading. Especially when they have to justify some wrong doing by some corporate "mitron"! You should read some ministry notings from Praful Patel's time when bilaterals were being opened up without due process! Serious facepalm stuff! :P
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:37 am

Notice how many of the former EK shills are now doing duty for Indigo?

Perhaps there is a story there? Did EK hire some Indian PR agency in the past and then fire them later? Was this agency picked up by Indigo? I have good reason to believe that.

Anyone has any idea of which PR firm EK used in India? Cannot be Vaishnavi - they do work for Tata group. Who is it?
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:48 am

Mayawati comes out in support of SP/Akhilesh. Calls probe launched by Central CBI, an act of “election greed”.

First such case of open solidarity between SP-BSP before 2019.

Their alliance has the potential to defeat the Fuhrer!


https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 930953.ece
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:17 am

BJP loses yet another political ally as 2019 looms large - AGP quits alliance with BJP. To go it alone.

https://www.livemint.com/Politics/LNxTv ... -Bill.html


The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) dealt a blow to its state ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections by pulling out of the coalition. This comes against the backdrop of the growing row over the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016, which was tabled in the Rajya Sabha on Monday.
The Sarbananda Sonowal-led Assam government will stay afloat despite the AGP’s withdrawal of support.
However, the Centre’s stand on the bill, which seeks to provide legitimacy and citizenship to non-Muslim minorities from Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, threatens to derail the process of finalizing the National Register of Citizens (NRC) as it contradicts the bill.



As of now, the BJP has lost TDP(Andhra), RLSP(Bihar), Apna Dal (UP), and AGP(Assam). Their ally in Tamil Nadu (ADMK) is headed for a split with over half the members looking to join former movie superstar Kamal Hassan's new party which is allying with the congress.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:20 pm

Any idea what Tony Fernandes wants to do with Air Asia India after Modi pulled a fast one on him to frame Naidu(TDP, AP)? Raju and Naidu were too naive to realize MoCA portfolio was just an entrapment. It is interesting Modi was personally involved during the 18 months it took to change 5/20 to 0/20, but tried to frame Naidu/Raju/Fernandes for the same.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:59 am

Spiderguy252 wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
Goyal and the Jet management know exactly who they are talking to and what they are talking about. All the speculation on forums like ANET, driven by poorly written hatchets jobs from Times Group news media is just that - SPECULATION.

IMO, I do not think any stake sale will happen unless Jet gets it WC issues sorted out. And for that my bets are still on a consortium of variously willing State owned banks being goaded into sanctioning the amounts needed to keep Jet afloat.


In your opinion, what is the timeline you are projecting for this to happen?


Any bailout by Govt Banks will be a political move - difficult when General Elections are just months away. While Naresh Goyal's friend in the ministry, Piyush Goyal, is around to push his case, the minister who will have to move the files is Arun Jaitley and he is currently undergoing treatment for Cancer in NYC. Piyush Goyal could push directly with the PMO but that approach is loaded with danger. I don't see that happening. It all rides on whether Arun Jaitley coming back to India in time.

If in the next few days, Piyush Goyal is made the "stand-in" Finance Minister, you know what was behind that move! The lobby groups have succeeded! :) Jet will get the bailout for SURE! But can Modi take the risk of such a move with elections just months away?

With this crazy govt, one cant be sure!
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:06 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Any idea what Tony Fernandes wants to do with Air Asia India after Modi pulled a fast one on him to frame Naidu(TDP, AP)? Raju and Naidu were too naive to realize MoCA portfolio was just an entrapment. It is interesting Modi was personally involved during the 18 months it took to change 5/20 to 0/20, but tried to frame Naidu/Raju/Fernandes for the same.


Did Modi try to entrap the TDP in the AirAsia non-"scandal"? That's possible. After North Korean media in delhi did try to push the story! But it didn't quite get the traction that the IT Cell people had hoped for! :P

Modi himself is trapped in the Rafale scandal which has acquired some serious traction across India - colleagues are reporting seeing Rafale Kites during the recent kite festivals in North India! :) As new embarassing revelations come in everyday on the Rafale Scam, Modi is looking increasingly cornered. Especially with the RSS making a concerted effort to dislodge Modi and go into the elections with a fresh face like Nitin Gadkari.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:12 pm

All his stooges are ailing with transplants and terminal illness. Four and half years of bad karma, I guess.

Shah is down with swine flu, who is running the country?
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:14 pm

The best indicator to which way the politics is moving is to track the industrialists and lobby groups to see which side they are tilting. Many business houses have great intel sources on the ground that can rival the CID network the British left behind.

Especially the Ambani's whose reputation in this regard is legendary. Back in 2004, the Ambani brothers had air-dashed to Delhi the day after the last election phase was concluded and Results were a week away. The BJP was expected to sweep that election. But most surprisingly, the Ambani brothers didn't meet Pramod Mahajan, Jaitley, Advani or Vajpayee. Instead, they went into a hush-hush meeting with Sonia Gandhi and Ahmed Patel. We know how that election turned out.

If it matters, a dozen industry majors including Ambani Sr's colleagues were seen meeting Rahul baba on his recent trip to the Middle East. Make of this what you will! ;-)

Rahul baba still has a long way to go if he has to succeed in unseating this fascist govt. But the game is fast slipping out of Modi-Shah's hands - that much is clear. The big question now is whether the RSS will indeed move first and replace Modi, thereby ending Rahul's dream of becoming PM.
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:28 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
All his stooges are ailing with transplants and terminal illness. Four and half years of bad karma, I guess.

Shah is down with swine flu, who is running the country?


The news of RSS sending Bhaiyyaji to meet Modi-Shah for the third time spread like wildfire across Lutyens Delhi and immediately all the ministers in the Modi govt started falling ill?! :lol: Too much of a coincidence no? :lol:

My theory is that many ministers know that a coup from within the party/RSS is underway against Modi. And they also know Rahul baba is maneuvering with the opposition to swoop in to finish off Modi. One of Modi's chief fixers Ajit Doval is embroiled in a corruption scandal linked to the Cayman Islands. Fixer Number 2 Amit Shah is busy fending off a challenge from Gujarat. These ministers who are conveniently falling ill are therefore wise to keep a distance away from the Badshah whose power is fast slipping away. Badshah-e-Aalam, Dilli se Palam! That is Modi's situation today!

The opposition is awaiting for a big news break from France that will conclusively break the back of the Modi govt. The question is whether the RSS will indeed move to remove Modi before that happens. IMO, the RSS will move first and remove Modi to cut their losses!

Poor Rahul baba! He worked so hard atleast in 2018 only to see the Maalpua of victory being snatched away at the last minute!
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:06 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
The best indicator to which way the politics is moving is to track the industrialists and lobby groups to see which side they are tilting. Many business houses have great intel sources on the ground that can rival the CID network the British left behind..


Adani announced ~$10B data center MoU with Naidu(TDP). Apparently, no one knew this deal was in the works.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:01 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
One of Modi's chief fixers Ajit Doval is embroiled in a corruption scandal linked to the Cayman Islands. Fixer Number 2 Amit Shah is busy fending off a challenge from Gujarat.


So Ajit Doval is Stephen Miller and Amit Shah is Steve Bannon??

Funny all three major democracies in the world are in a disarray. Two are struggling to keep democratic values alive and India is turning into a dictatorship.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:53 pm

The NSA and Modi's No1 "fixer" Ajit Doval's son has been found to be running hedge funds in the Cayman Islands - started just a few days
https://caravanmagazine.in/business/aji ... ek-shaurya
Trade documents accessed by The Caravan from the United Kingdom, United States of America, Singapore and the Cayman Islands show that the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s younger son, Vivek Doval, runs a hedge fund in the Cayman Islands, an established tax haven. This hedge fund was registered merely 13 days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government demonetised all existing Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes, in 2016. Vivek Doval’s business is linked inextricably to businesses run by his brother Shaurya Doval, a Bharatiya Janata Party politician who heads the India Foundation, a think tank that enjoys close proximity to the Modi government. That Vivek Doval runs an offshore hedge fund based out of a tax haven is notable in light of the established public position taken by his father—in 2011, Ajit Doval authored a report that advocated a strict crackdown on tax havens and offshore entities.

Vivek Doval, a chartered financial analyst who is a citizen of the UK and resides in Singapore, is the director of the hedge fund, named GNY Asia Fund. According to July 2018 document, Don W Ebanks and Mohamed Althaf Musliam Veetil are directors as well. Ebanks is named in the Paradise Papers—a leaked database of over 13 million documents regarding offshore entities—as the director of two firms, both registered in the Cayman Islands.


Ajit Doval - India's National Security Advisor under Modi - has 2 sons both of whom are citizens of the USA and UK respectively. Modi has repeatedly resisted calls to fire Ajit Doval whose record in office has been marred by spectacular incompetence. Coincidence or otherwise, all major sescurity goofups between 1998-2004 and 2014-date have seen Ajit Doval play a role. From Kandahar to Doklam to Pathankot to Nepal (Madhesi rebellion was a Doval project) to Sri Lanka to Maldives!

Ajit Doval who was heading the Intelligence Bureau (IB) between 1998-2004 Vajpayee era, was not given an extension when the new Congress govt took charge in 2005 because of intel reports suggesting Doval worked with western intel agencies in the past. Doval went into retirement and set up Vivekanand Foundation which worked on Modi's election campaign from 2012.

Wonder what pressure is there on Modi to continue retaining the spectacularly incompetent Ajit Doval?

PS: Doval has met the former Congress PM Manmohan Singh twice in the past week. Significant when seen together with the RSS moving against Modi. If they strike a deal with Doval to switch sides and spill the beans on "Dear Leader", they will be able to deliver a knockout blow to the BJP! STUNNING!
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:18 pm

Astana moved to aviation security I guess he will prime the pumps for Jagan Reddy(YSRCP), Vishakapatnam airport incident, so NIA can charge Naidu(TDP)???

There are no coincidences.
 
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:02 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Astana moved to aviation security I guess he will prime the pumps for Jagan Reddy(YSRCP), Vishakapatnam airport incident, so NIA can charge Naidu(TDP)???

There are no coincidences.



Doubt it. The bureaucracy has finally found it's voice in the fag end of Modi's unfortunate tenure! Modi's man Asthana has been placed on a "restricted tenure" which severely limits his powers.

With most of Modi's ministers and troubleshooters fleeing the capital in advance of the coup, Modi's movements are severely restricted.

Wrt to the VGA incident, Andhra police has taken over the investigation and the statements of the CISF have already been recorded. To implicate Naidu now would require a lot of CISF(Central) officials to backtrack which will be difficult to do. Since the CISF is under Rajnaath Singh, it will also require him to play along. Unlikely in the current scenario!
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:16 am

Caravan and Wire are looking at a potential link between Cayman islands funds run by Vivek Doval and Interglobe Aviation which owns Indigo!

This just got interesting!
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:17 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Caravan and Wire are looking at a potential link between Cayman islands funds run by Vivek Doval and Interglobe Aviation which owns Indigo!

This just got interesting!


Source?
 
lutfi
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:20 am

I have always taken the view that India should start at the Deccan Plateau/ Dravidian language line... Without the Hindi belt it would be a much more pleasant place. (I lived in Coimbatore & Hyderabad in the 70's and 80's as my father was working there, so am somewhat biased to Southern India)
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:30 am

SQ22 wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
Caravan and Wire are looking at a potential link between Cayman islands funds run by Vivek Doval and Interglobe Aviation which owns Indigo!

This just got interesting!


Source?


Part 1 of 3 in the Caravan series has already been published to their website. Parts 2 and 3 should be released within the next month. Wire is already running a parallel series following the same trail. But I think the 2 media houses are collaborating on this major story!


lutfi wrote:
I have always taken the view that India should start at the Deccan Plateau/ Dravidian language line... Without the Hindi belt it would be a much more pleasant place. (I lived in Coimbatore & Hyderabad in the 70's and 80's as my father was working there, so am somewhat biased to Southern India)

:(

THAT is the real danger of abrasive personality like Modi continuing to stay in power. Leaders of the Southern dravidian states are now getting increasingly vocal on their demands for greater autonomy. The North-South divide has never been as wide as it is now. The more literate and economically developed South feels cheated with the cross subsidy towards underperforming Northern States and the population in Southern India is getting increasingly restive. Apart from the cultural factor, If the South does become independent, the per capita GDP and HDI of the Dravidian republic would be closer to some European countries while the less developed North would be further pushed into poverty. There is certainly an economic case to be made which is what Dravidian leaders like Chandrababu Naidu and Comrade Vijayan have been focusing on so far. However I am worried that a secession may not be entirely peaceful and the subcontinent will once again see the kind of violence that followed the first Partition of India when Pakistan was carved out.

As a North Indian, I was horrified to see the kind of traction the "No Hindi" campaign acquired in Bangalore in 2016. There is a real risk of the movement turning violent and secessionist!

India under British rule was a diverse continent of 4 presidencies and 800+ princely states. It was knitted into a republic by the inclusive, liberal politics of Gandhi and Nehru. With Nehruvian inclusive polices being attacked by Modi and Co, their divisive politics threatens to rip the republic apart. Which is why it is important that this fellow must go!
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian Politics Megathread

Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:52 am

Apropos the Jet Airways search for investor/lender saga.

My take is that pressure is being built up by the Finance Ministry on State Bank's to lend more money to Jet. While "evergreening" of loans in the old sense of the term is no longer possible, RESTRUCTURING of loans is. With state banks, this cannot be done without some amount of political pressure. NBFC's can also be roped in to lend a helping hand - so to speak.

All Jet Airway's needs right now is for one Govt bank to provide an opening. Other NBFC's, including private ones will fall in line. Historically, that has been the case.

According to my "informed sources" (loving this term ;)), Naresh Goyal's team has already bought the babu's onboard with a 2-track plan to secure financing. But they will need a) the finance minister to come on board. or b) The PMO steps in to do the needful.

The latter looks unlikely, but is not impossible. The PMO getting involved would open Modi to the charges of direct corruption, something he is unlikely to take up. But it has happened before, so you cannot say!

The current FM, Arun Jaitley has to sign off on this 2-track recovery plan. But he is conveniently out of town on "illness" (see above posts).

Keep a close watch on the moves by Finance Ministry babu's across the next month. Also keep a close watch on statements made by LIC/IRFCL/PFCL in addition to Muthoot and others. If Piyush Goyal is made the interim Finance Minister, then we can be sure that Jet Airways lobbying efforts have paid off and the working capital has been secured. If Suresh Prabhu or Sinha is made the interim FM, then its game up for Jet Airways!

The boys at the big bad blue airline played a great game to pull down Jet by targeting its sources of WC. It did work to cripple the airline in the short term. But in the end, they underestimated Naresh Goyal's ability to play the game. He has been playing the game for longer than the Gurgaon team!

PS: If someone like Swamy is made the FM, then its game up for Indigo! Swamy has for long wanted an opportunity to go after Ajit Doval! :P
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