A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:43 pm

Correction: UK government said 150 lorries but only 79 showed up.
Maybe they rented some from companies that don't own any lorries and never operated lorries yet?
Anyway, good to see the well oiled machine being all ready for the big day, everything smooth and flawless. :D
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:26 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Maybe they rented some from companies that don't own any lorries and never operated lorries yet?


I see what you did there! :lol:
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readytotaxi
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:40 pm

It was rather good.
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:57 pm

In the meantime this is what some of our MP's have to put up with from Brexiters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46785357

The irony of calling her nazi, let alone the intimidation and thuggish behaviour.

With families being split, nurses leaving the country and now this... it is where we have got to, what an awful intolerant xenophobic country we are becoming

just shocking.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:42 pm

Good news for Brits living in The Netherlands, even with hard Brexit, Brits living in The Netherlands can stay for 15 months, even non-EU spouses. In the meantime, they are invited to apply for permanent residency. 81% of the 45.000 Brits intend to do so, 15% expects to stay.

Article in Dutch
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:31 pm

Richard28 wrote:
In the meantime this is what some of our MP's have to put up with from Brexiters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46785357

The irony of calling her nazi, let alone the intimidation and thuggish behaviour.

With families being split, nurses leaving the country and now this... it is where we have got to, what an awful intolerant xenophobic country we are becoming

just shocking.


I agree, no place for that sort of behaviour against female or male MP’s, everyone has a right to freedom of expression under UK common law within reason, the actions seemed to go against the Public Order Act 1986

But I do hate it when women play the misogynistic card as done by comments from Mary Creagh in relation to the matter, as I’ve been on the receiving end of misandry for simply holding the door open for a women, it’s called common curtesy.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:41 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Maybe they rented some from companies that don't own any lorries and never operated lorries yet?


:D
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:43 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Good news for Brits living in The Netherlands, even with hard Brexit, Brits living in The Netherlands can stay for 15 months, even non-EU spouses. In the meantime, they are invited to apply for permanent residency. 81% of the 45.000 Brits intend to do so, 15% expects to stay.

Article in Dutch


Very pleased so much British talent will continue to live in the Netherlands. Global ambassadors for the UK.
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Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:44 pm

Richard28 wrote:
In the meantime this is what some of our MP's have to put up with from Brexiters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46785357

The irony of calling her nazi, let alone the intimidation and thuggish behaviour.

With families being split, nurses leaving the country and now this... it is where we have got to, what an awful intolerant xenophobic country we are becoming

just shocking.


I hope you don’t think this is the opinion of all brexiteers Richard and you will agree it’s just a very small minority of idiots.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:49 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Good news for Brits living in The Netherlands, even with hard Brexit, Brits living in The Netherlands can stay for 15 months, even non-EU spouses. In the meantime, they are invited to apply for permanent residency. 81% of the 45.000 Brits intend to do so, 15% expects to stay.

Article in Dutch


Very pleased so much British talent will continue to live in the Netherlands. Global ambassadors for the UK.


they are welcome :)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:21 am

Arion640 wrote:

I hope you don’t think this is the opinion of all brexiteers Richard and you will agree it’s just a very small minority of idiots.


Of course I don't think it is all the people - my mother voted for Brexit (grrrrr) and she is not like one of those loons!
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:25 am

Richard28 wrote:
- my mother voted for Brexit (grrrrr)


Are you willing to tell us why she voted “leave”? Just curious
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:59 am

marcelh wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
- my mother voted for Brexit (grrrrr)


Are you willing to tell us why she voted “leave”? Just curious


She is not able to really articulate why, other than saying such phrases as "Brussels have too much control", and that we need to "take control of our own laws"... ask which EU laws she doesn't like and she can't name one and will say phrases like "all of them". If you then asked her about any of the technicalities like the single market, customs union, WTO etc she really does not know.

Most of this I think comes form reading mainly one sided pieces in the Daily Telegraph everyday, and in many ways is similar to what we find here much of the time, she is frankly not interested in learning about the details and possible implications of the decision outside of that bubble.

My dad voted Brexit too, he has since unfortunately passed away, one of my two brothers voted Brexit too - so we are a split family on this issue.

Our family do not live close to one another and on the few occasions we all meet each year we all agree to disagree most of the time on the subject... but it inevitably creeps into conversations and I am non the wiser as to the fundamentals of their decision, other than falling for the words of people like Farage and Johnson, pushed by elements of the media, and a willingness to take their slogans at face value without any examination, further reading or thoughts of how it impacts their children or grandchildren.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:59 am

Dutchy wrote:
Good news for Brits living in The Netherlands, even with hard Brexit, Brits living in The Netherlands can stay for 15 months, even non-EU spouses. In the meantime, they are invited to apply for permanent residency. 81% of the 45.000 Brits intend to do so, 15% expects to stay.

Article in Dutch


It's basically the implementation of EU contingency plan (though 3 months longer than foreseen in the EU contingency plan). However, AFAIK everything depends on the UK replicating identical regulation for EU nationals.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:20 pm

Richard28 wrote:
I am non the wiser as to the fundamentals of their decision, other than falling for the words of people like Farage and Johnson, pushed by elements of the media, and a willingness to take their slogans at face value without any examination, further reading or thoughts of how it impacts their children or grandchildren.


Reading the news today, I am reminded that 99% don't realise we are not even discussing "the deal" - merely the withdrawal agreement. The real negotations are still to come (if the WA happens)...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:40 pm

Richard28 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
- my mother voted for Brexit (grrrrr)


Are you willing to tell us why she voted “leave”? Just curious


She is not able to really articulate why, other than saying such phrases as "Brussels have too much control", and that we need to "take control of our own laws"... ask which EU laws she doesn't like and she can't name one and will say phrases like "all of them". If you then asked her about any of the technicalities like the single market, customs union, WTO etc she really does not know.

Most of this I think comes form reading mainly one sided pieces in the Daily Telegraph everyday, and in many ways is similar to what we find here much of the time, she is frankly not interested in learning about the details and possible implications of the decision outside of that bubble.

My dad voted Brexit too, he has since unfortunately passed away, one of my two brothers voted Brexit too - so we are a split family on this issue.

Our family do not live close to one another and on the few occasions we all meet each year we all agree to disagree most of the time on the subject... but it inevitably creeps into conversations and I am non the wiser as to the fundamentals of their decision, other than falling for the words of people like Farage and Johnson, pushed by elements of the media, and a willingness to take their slogans at face value without any examination, further reading or thoughts of how it impacts their children or grandchildren.


what do they hope to get out of it? What part of their lives are going to be better.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:08 pm

Dutchy wrote:
what do they hope to get out of it?


A sense of victory and that "they won" - other than that absolutely nothing.

Dutchy wrote:
What part of their lives are going to be better.


None.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:14 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Reading the news today, I am reminded that 99% don't realise we are not even discussing "the deal" - merely the withdrawal agreement. The real negotations are still to come (if the WA happens)...


The level of knowledge and understanding is at a very low standard, not helped of course by the politicians who are happy to continue to lie to further their own personal agendas.

This particular lie is pushed by Theresa May herself, in saying that backing her deal will mean turning a corner and getting on with other things, other than Brexit.

Which as you point out, is far from the truth.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:40 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
what do they hope to get out of it?


A sense of victory and that "they won" - other than that absolutely nothing.

Dutchy wrote:
What part of their lives are going to be better.


None.


I heard a very good presentation about the bubble we are all in. People voting for extreme positions: Trump, Brexit, extreme right/left etc. can be divided in two groups:
1. emotional voters: including racist etc. You cannot reason with those people and they are best ignored. These people are a good example of this group: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46785357
2. rational voters: they see the government getting tuff on them, small mistake by them and they are slabbed by fines or worse, they see that their social security is getting cut, time and time again, and yet they see the "elite" getting away with just about everything. Not in the last place the banking debacle of 2007. All those responsible got to keep their bonuses and their salaries. In other words, they haven't been held to any responsibility. Secondly, the price has been paid by the middle and lower classes, not by the elite. If refugees are coming into the country, they are competition for the lower, less educated classes, not for the elite. All this combines in a protest vote, because the moderate politics have failed them.

His advice: talk to the second group and address their problems and don't let the elite get away with their mistakes.

So the question I would have, what problem did your mother or brother want to see resolved. EU seems to be a scapegoat.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:44 pm

That advice would not work for the Brexit, because there moderate parties were as divided as the country and the press happily went along.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:52 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

I hope you don’t think this is the opinion of all brexiteers Richard and you will agree it’s just a very small minority of idiots.


Of course I don't think it is all the people - my mother voted for Brexit (grrrrr) and she is not like one of those loons!


Come on now Richard listen to your mother. Mums are always right!
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:06 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

I hope you don’t think this is the opinion of all brexiteers Richard and you will agree it’s just a very small minority of idiots.


Of course I don't think it is all the people - my mother voted for Brexit (grrrrr) and she is not like one of those loons!


Come on now Richard listen to your mother. Mums are always right!


:lol: you haven't lost your sense of humor.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:22 pm

So January 15th will be D-day in the Brittish Parlemaint.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:06 am

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:

Of course I don't think it is all the people - my mother voted for Brexit (grrrrr) and she is not like one of those loons!


Come on now Richard listen to your mother. Mums are always right!


:lol: you haven't lost your sense of humor.


Hopefully neither has Richard ;)
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A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:24 am

'Brussels has warned British Airways owner IAG (ICAG.L) that its favored strategy to allow it to continue flying freely in and around Europe in the event of a no-deal Brexit will not work'

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1P22G6

Ownership structure seems to be the problem
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:39 am

As expected.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:27 am

Dutchy wrote:
So January 15th will be D-day in the Brittish Parlemaint.


Except that we already know the outcome of the vote after yesterday's government defeat in the House of Commons over an amendment to its finance bill.

TM has reportedly acknowledged to senior government ministers the vote will be lost and she's reportedly already planning an important address to parliament in that case, immediately after: no rumours on what it will say yet, but with the amendment to the government's finance bill passed, it effectively means a default outcome of no deal has become unfinanced and thus increasingly impossible to persue, especially as the power limiting clause which won approval in the Commons ('in case of a Brexit deal, an extension of article 50 or explicit further approval from Parliament') is expected to be added to 7 more government bills needed to prepare the UK for live after EU membership, so speculation is mounting the UK will have no other option but to demand for an extension to the March 29th deadline, especially since it was previously reported UK government officials have been in contact with their EU counterparts over the last few weeks to feel the temperature on any such a shock move (which needs unanimous consent from the EU27).
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:06 am

The vote will go ahead, the vote will be lost. Therefore the representative democracy we operate will have had it's say, and the article 50 notification can then be withdrawn in accordance with the EJC ruling (UK remains in the EU).
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:16 am

sabenapilot wrote:
so speculation is mounting the UK will have no other option but to demand for an extension to the March 29th deadline, especially since it was previously reported UK government officials have been in contact with their EU counterparts over the last few weeks to feel the temperature on any such a shock move (which needs unanimous consent from the EU27).


My understanding is that any extension will require

a) consent of the EU27, and
b) a valid reason for the extension, eg general election, peoples vote

They will not extend Article 50 just to allow the status quo to continue, or the withdrawal agreement to be re-negotiated.

Article 50 could however be revoked, without those two conditions - so a simpler path, but I would guess politically more difficult.

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Come on now Richard listen to your mother. Mums are always right!


:lol: you haven't lost your sense of humor.


Hopefully neither has Richard ;)


Very good :lol: glad we can all still share an occasional laugh through all this!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:28 am

Well, surprisingly, where everyone on the continent supposedly hates the UK one has to wonder why websites like this exist:

http://www.stopbrexitintherain.com/

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:37 am

Coincidence?

'Edvard Munch's The Scream comes to the British Library in April'

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesig ... sh-library

;)
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:48 am

sabenapilot wrote:
TM has reportedly acknowledged to senior government ministers the vote will be lost and she's reportedly already planning an important address to parliament in that case, immediately after: no rumours on what it will say yet, but with the amendment to the government's finance bill passed, it effectively means a default outcome of no deal has become unfinanced and thus increasingly impossible to persue, especially as the power limiting clause which won approval in the Commons ('in case of a Brexit deal, an extension of article 50 or explicit further approval from Parliament') is expected to be added to 7 more government bills needed to prepare the UK for live after EU membership, so speculation is mounting the UK will have no other option but to demand for an extension to the March 29th deadline, especially since it was previously reported UK government officials have been in contact with their EU counterparts over the last few weeks to feel the temperature on any such a shock move (which needs unanimous consent from the EU27).


It seems as if British MPs agree on what they don't want, but can't agree and what they want. It's also odd to say that one party agrees that there has to be a deal, whereas not requiring the other party the same. It doesn't make any sense, especially given the current situation. Moreover, these amendments only serve to put the blame to everybody but those voting for the amendments. The status quo will most likely remain and I don't foresee that the division regarding Brexit will diminish any time soon. Therefore, I think that any decision (deal, no-deal or no Brexit at all) is better than no decision (which an extension basically is). At least you can start moving on.
 
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Number6
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:58 am

Having watched the drama unfold, it’s clear we’re now into the final act. I’m not sure there’s a way out here that U.K. politicians are will to take. I’ve been giving it much thought and I think this could work as a way forward. It’s difficult, but I believe it’s one way out of the current crisis and it’ll take a strong politician to stand up and propose it. Here goes.

1. Withdraw the current article 50 notification.
Clearly, with just around 80 days to go, the UK isn’t ready. An extension could be sought, but if the U.K. is this tight to the deadline, then I can’t see how another two years is going to help. Instead, withdrawing the Article 50 notification is the best choice. It allows for a full reset of the situation. This is not the end of the plan though, just the beginning. Someone needs to be honest with the U.K. public and tell them that given the time constraints and other issues, leaving the EU is likely to be damaging right now. However, given what we now know, here is the plan going forward.

2. General election. Ok, this is probably going to happen and will solve nothing, but based on the start above, the current government announces that for the next 5-year term, every conceivable option for leaving the EU will be looked into. Reports will be published by the government and as many as 5 to 8 external thinktanks or groups. These will be drawn up within two years. Following that, the government will launch a public enquiry into the supplied plans. Every one of them will be scrutinised and assessed. THIS MUST BE DONE WITH FULL TRANSPARENCY. The final enquiry report should be published before the end of the five-year term, six months prior to the next election. Its conclusions should be used by the government to inform the next step. Should the decision, based on the report's findings, be that the U.K. should still leave the EU, the report will act as a plan on how to achieve that.
Meanwhile, during the same 5-year session, The U.K. should work at an EU level via parliament to aid reforms and push through change. Compromise will be needed, but valuable reforms to ensuring the EU removes some of the democratic deficit would benefit every member, and even if the U.K subsequently leaves, it leaves with its head held high, bringing a reform that proves the British to be true diplomats.
Finally, during this five-year parliament, new immigration controls should be brought in, in line with EU directives. This means new arrivals from the EU must register with the local authority when they arrive at they’re a new home, preferably within the first week. This should be used alongside a nationwide scheme to supply Everyone in the U.K. with an ID card. After three months, all new EU residence must register again to prove employment and health cover. Failure to prove this means that resident must leave the U.K. To ensure accurate levels of immigration are monitored, exit controls should be reintroduced at the borders.

3. With the decision made by the previous government to leave, and taking into account that no government can be held by a previous governments decision, the next parliament should now begin putting in place the required changes and infrastructure required to be ready to depart the EU at the end of the five years in parliament. This should include things like customs checkpoints and it assumes that the NI issue has been looked at by the public enquiry and the proposed solution is included in the final report which forms the current plan. Prior to article 50’s execution, the government may wish to put the final decision to the U.K. public. Should a referendum be called, MP’s should be barred from participating in any campaigning. Instead, two campaign groups should be formed from those outside politics and only these two groups. The campaign should be funded from central government with no allowance for private donations. The campaign should also be rigorously monitored, with the discussion limited to the intended plan on the table. No pie in the sky outside planning or ridiculous scaremongering from either side should be allowed. The campaign is the be fought On the plan in hand, and this only. The campaign should also be short, exceeding no more than six weeks before the vote. If the decision comes back that the U.K. is still to leave, article 50 is triggered and negotiations begin. This time, knowing what’s possible, things should turn out better and come May 2029, the U.K. departs the EU for its new status, fully prepared to face the next challenges ahead.

I think this is the most realistic course of action, but given the last two-plus years, I’m not sure there’s even a politician worth listening to who could stand up and shout ‘stop.’ Someone needs to tell the people that leaving the EU isn’t easy, they’re not ready and time will be needed to sort out the plethora of bills, agreements and so on. Yes, it may take ten years, but it’s better to take time to be ready than to jump in the hope there’s a net below. If you’re willing to wait for 50 years to see the benefits, as JRM suggested, then 10 years is nothing. And to be clear, the assumption through all of the above is that the U.K. continues to move towards leaving the EU. It’s not some plan to wait until people change their minds. It’s just my thoughts on the best way forward because right now, nothing is moving, especially domestic policy.
 
blrsea
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:09 am

Help me understand this. To extend Article 50, EU27 approval is required. If UK parliament votes down the current Brexit deal, and EU27 doesn't give unanimous approval to extend the withdrawal period, UK is out on no-deal and there is nothing UK can do to prevent it (having voted down current deal). Is this right?

And since EU has ruled out renegotiation, the only options for UK is to dissolve parliament and call new election, or go for 2nd referendum to extend Article 50. Otherwise, whether UK parliament likes it or not, UK will be out without a deal. Is this understanding right?
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:11 am

LJ wrote:
Therefore, I think that any decision (deal, no-deal or no Brexit at all) is better than no decision (which an extension basically is). At least you can start moving on.


Just to clarify, "no decision" will directly lead to "no-deal" - that is still the default position, the amendment passed last night just makes this approach more difficult to manage by the government.

If a Parliament decision is reached it will be for the other two solutions, e.g. deal or no-Brexit.

I'm reading that Theresa May has already accepted privately that her withdrawal agreement deal will be lost and is planning a speech on losing (but no-one knows its content yet)

An amendment is also going through (which should pass as had cross party support) to reduce the 21 period that the Government has (on losing the vote on the 15th) to come up with an alternative plan down to 3 days -i.e. the end of next week.

Jeremy Corbyn is very likely to table a motion of no confidence in the government, in an attempt to trigger a new general election - which is unlikely to pass.

Theresa May meanwhile is still protected in her position within the Tory party as PM to the end of the year as the ERG have already played their joker and can't launch another bid to oust her as party leader until December - this may give her time to change path and survive the inevitable cabinet resignations (from one side or the other!)

The next two weeks will be interesting no doubt....
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:27 am

blrsea wrote:
Help me understand this. To extend Article 50, EU27 approval is required.

:checkmark:

blrsea wrote:
If UK parliament votes down the current Brexit deal, and EU27 doesn't give unanimous approval to extend the withdrawal period, UK is out on no-deal and there is nothing UK can do to prevent it (having voted down current deal). Is this right?


No, the UK can still revoke Article 50 unilaterally.


blrsea wrote:
And since EU has ruled out renegotiation, the only options for UK is to dissolve parliament and call new election, or go for 2nd referendum to extend Article 50. Otherwise, whether UK parliament likes it or not, UK will be out without a deal. Is this understanding right?


In my mind there are three options going forward:

  1. General Election (unlikely to solve anything as issues would persist)
  2. Peoples Vote (would give a final say and final clarity one way or the other)
  3. Softer Brexit is pursued, eg SM+CU... this has its own issues but would remove need for back stop.

Either revocation or extension of Article 50 would be required in all three scenarios. It is likely however that an extension would be agreed by the EU under the above scenarios, as a hard brexit is in no-ones interest.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 16613
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:44 am

A3801000 wrote:
'Brussels has warned British Airways owner IAG (ICAG.L) that its favored strategy to allow it to continue flying freely in and around Europe in the event of a no-deal Brexit will not work'

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1P22G6

Ownership structure seems to be the problem


That can't be right. Arion640 told us it was all OK. :confused:

A3801000 wrote:
Coincidence?

'Edvard Munch's The Scream comes to the British Library in April'

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesig ... sh-library


Some of us feel it's already been here in spirit since 23-06-16.

LJ wrote:
It seems as if British MPs agree on what they don't want, but can't agree and what they want.


It's a rare situation where all political parties reflect the electorate - the country is split down the middle on this.

Richard28 wrote:
In my mind there are three options going forward:

General Election (unlikely to solve anything as issues would persist)
Peoples Vote (would give a final say and final clarity one way or the other)
Softer Brexit is pursued, eg SM+CU... this has its own issues but would remove need for back stop.

Either revocation or extension of Article 50 would be required in all three scenarios. It is likely however that an extension would be agreed by the EU under the above scenarios, as a hard brexit is in no-ones interest.


Whilst a GE is Labour's wet dream, it wouldn't change anything. I can't see either the Tories or Labour having a comfortable majority and even if Labour did win it, they're just as split on Brexit as the Tories.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:50 am

I agree an extension is very likely going to be demanded, and if accompanied by a good reason, it will certainly be granted, (probably the 2 will happen well coordinated and officially simultaneously, so as to prevent disruption and embarrasment) although there's one legal issue remaining because of the very poor timing of the triggering of Article 50: that of the European elections.
An extension beyond say summer would force the UK to organise EP elections, but there seems to be no time left to organise such an election either.
What a self created mess indeed!
The conservatises should be proud of themselves!
 
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Richard28
Posts: 2702
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:15 am

sabenapilot wrote:
I agree an extension is very likely going to be demanded, and if accompanied by a good reason, it will certainly be granted, (probably the 2 will happen well coordinated and officially simultaneously, so as to prevent disruption and embarrasment) although there's one legal issue remaining because of the very poor timing of the triggering of Article 50: that of the European elections.
An extension beyond say summer would force the UK to organise EP elections, but there seems to be no time left to organise such an election either.
What a self created mess indeed!
The conservatises should be proud of themselves!


I read somewhere (but cannot recall where unfortunately) that as an interim measure it might be possible for our MP's to take the UK MEP seats in Brussels.

not sure if this is legit or not and if true how seats would be allocated... does anyone know?
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:36 am

Richard28 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
I agree an extension is very likely going to be demanded, and if accompanied by a good reason, it will certainly be granted, (probably the 2 will happen well coordinated and officially simultaneously, so as to prevent disruption and embarrasment) although there's one legal issue remaining because of the very poor timing of the triggering of Article 50: that of the European elections.
An extension beyond say summer would force the UK to organise EP elections, but there seems to be no time left to organise such an election either.
What a self created mess indeed!
The conservatises should be proud of themselves!


I read somewhere (but cannot recall where unfortunately) that as an interim measure it might be possible for our MP's to take the UK MEP seats in Brussels.

not sure if this is legit or not and if true how seats would be allocated... does anyone know?


The idea to extend their mandate has been floated already indeed, but the question of how democratic and even legit that is, remains unanswered: probably only the ECJ can truly answer that as we've long strayed off any charted map of course.

Just imagine the irony of the UK begging the ECJ to allow its MEPs to stay in the EP beyond the next European elections to at least have some sort of representation there, further invalidating the claim of taking back control! Any possible way out by now not only is legally extremely complicated, it is also politically very damaging for the British government which has invested huge amounts of its political capital in claiming to make a success of Brexit.
and then there's the question of the budget contributions again…
in short: an extension puts the UK back at square one, before any WA even came in view, with discussions at home over British budget contributions to and British representation in Europe: the then never materialized fight of the summer as DD then called it in 2017, still remember?

Anyway, I personally wouldn't start minting those commemorative coins for March 29th just yet…that's all I'd give as my 2 (euro)cents. ;)
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 7835
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:40 am

sabenapilot wrote:
I agree an extension is very likely going to be demanded, and if accompanied by a good reason, it will certainly be granted, (probably the 2 will happen well coordinated and officially simultaneously, so as to prevent disruption and embarrasment) although there's one legal issue remaining because of the very poor timing of the triggering of Article 50: that of the European elections.
An extension beyond say summer would force the UK to organise EP elections, but there seems to be no time left to organise such an election either.



UK can't demand anything, they can kindly ask for it. The good reason needs to be very good indeed. If there isn't a concrete plan to force a breakthrough in British politics, why bother with an extension? So, in my view, either a people's vote or a General Election would do it.

Didn't think of the consequences of such a decision for the European Elections. That would be quite awkward indeed.

sabenapilot wrote:
What a self-created mess indeed!
The conservatises should be proud of themselves!


Yes, the UK has self-inflicted wounds. It is the UK politics in general, I do not blame it on conservatives alone. There is no love for the EU within Parlement, just pragmatic support and therefore it is quite easy to blame the EU of all kind of things.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Richard28
Posts: 2702
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:07 pm

and the madness gets madder...

Just reading on sky news (Can't link to it I'm afraid) that a "minister" (not named) has suggested a course of action would be for Theresa May to call a General election herself, timed so that Parliament is not even sitting as we go through 29th March, ensuring that there is no Government in place to do anything to stop it... (of course that would need a 2/3rds majority to pass...)

what was that about taking back control???!!
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 2832
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:40 pm

Richard28 wrote:
and the madness gets madder...

Just reading on sky news (Can't link to it I'm afraid) that a "minister" (not named) has suggested a course of action would be for Theresa May to call a General election herself, timed so that Parliament is not even sitting as we go through 29th March, ensuring that there is no Government in place to do anything to stop it... (of course that would need a 2/3rds majority to pass...)

what was that about taking back control???!!


The UK is in full constitutional crisis it seems, with the speaker of the House just having accepted for vote an explosive motion from an MP to amend the time line after Parliament will have voted down the deal presented by TM. Government had previously given itself 21 days to table an alternative course of action in Parliament, but under the proposal this will be cut to just 3.
The government was confident the motion was not going to be accepted for vote on constitutional grounds (only a government minister can amend a government motion on timing), but speaker Bercow just decided otherwise: the UK has no written constitution, so he just created a new legal precedent here.
The motion itself comes from MP Grieve who already managed to defeat government before with a motion giving Parliament the right to amend any Brexit related proposal the government comes up with: the combination of both means Parliament can effectively take full control of the direction Brexit goes 3 days after May loses her vote.
If the Grieve amendment gets passed, all bets are truly off.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1485
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:15 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
What a self created mess indeed!
The conservatises should be proud of themselves!


Did anyone else watch the recent Channel 4 drama about the leave campaign manager (Dominic Cummings)? Although it made slightly humorous charicatures of the public figures involved, IMO it was a telling portrayal of the chain of chaotic, selfish and stupid decisions made by a small group of individuals which led to the whole mess. It seems Douglas Carstairs was much more instrumental than I realised. After watching that I can finally see a reason for Gove and BoJo's odd post-referendum panic and back-stabbing moment.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
noviorbis77
Posts: 454
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:23 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:54 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
What a self created mess indeed!
The conservatises should be proud of themselves!


Did anyone else watch the recent Channel 4 drama about the leave campaign manager (Dominic Cummings)? Although it made slightly humorous charicatures of the public figures involved, IMO it was a telling portrayal of the chain of chaotic, selfish and stupid decisions made by a small group of individuals which led to the whole mess. It seems Douglas Carstairs was much more instrumental than I realised. After watching that I can finally see a reason for Gove and BoJo's odd post-referendum panic and back-stabbing moment.


It was subjective nonsense from the leftiest of channels.
 
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speedygonzales
Posts: 626
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:17 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
It was subjective nonsense from the leftiest of channels.

Thank you for your in depth analysis. :banghead:
Ignorance kills. :tombstone:
 
A3801000
Posts: 442
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:35 pm

MPs vote to force the government to announce new Brexit plans within three days if PM's deal fails in the Commons

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46805269
 
LJ
Posts: 4669
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:40 pm

Richard28 wrote:
LJ wrote:
Therefore, I think that any decision (deal, no-deal or no Brexit at all) is better than no decision (which an extension basically is). At least you can start moving on.


Just to clarify, "no decision" will directly lead to "no-deal" - that is still the default position, the amendment passed last night just makes this approach more difficult to manage by the government..


Indeed, but that isn't a sign of leadership, something the UK badly needs. Moreover, that would mean 2.5 months wasted.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:45 pm

A3801000 wrote:
MPs vote to force the government to announce new Brexit plans within three days if PM's deal fails in the Commons

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46805269


This is crazy. What's the purpose of submitting a new plan after 3 days of the vote. You can be assured that the quality of that plan isn't great.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:53 pm

LJ wrote:
This is crazy. What's the purpose of submitting a new plan after 3 days of the vote. You can be assured that the quality of that plan isn't great.


In reality it is not three days though - she should have been planning this since early December when it was clear the Withdrawal Agreement would not pass the House of Commons (or arguably even sooner than that, as she has kicked the Brexit can down the road so many times)

you summed it up earlier:

LJ wrote:
that isn't a sign of leadership, something the UK badly needs

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