A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:01 am

Klaus wrote:
I had been talking to Seahawk – a fellow german member – who keeps trolling you UK Leavers around here.


Well least he's keeping himself amused


Klaus wrote:
There is no issue with anyone being "too stupid to vote", which is just a Leaver straw man argument you lot keep throwing around because it so conveniently keeps pushing your own buttons. Horrendous mistakes can be and are made by people of all levels of intelligence, up or down, and Brexit in particular is ample proof of that.


I'm sure there are gullible people who voted either way, by the way I have never said people "too stupid to vote" and no ones pushing my buttons, not fussed

Klaus wrote:
The issue is rather about choosing to fanatically believe in things which are not true, for this purpose immediately and unquestioningly taking any seemingly supporting propaganda at face value without any critical thought and outright refusing to acknowledge any factual evidence contradicting that fanatical belief. (I could be talking about any fanatical group there – the common thing is the mindset of fanaticism which is completely removed from the real world.)


There nothing fanatical about it nor Trump's Nationalistic pride, just a belief leaving the EU may prove more beneficial in the long run for the UK

Klaus wrote:
Most Leavers I have seen spouting empty platitudes and refusing to even look at the factual evidence aren't pushing the pedal to the metal towards the cliff edge because they actually have any sound evidence for being able to sprout wings on their way down, they seem to be doing it because it feels so good to run with a crowd of like mind(lessness), carrying that gilded trophy of their rather dubious token "win" with them, and that trumps absolutely everything for them, even the damage they're doing to their own country and to themselves.


So instead of calling a spade a spade your calling those that voted to leave a bunch of sheep

Klaus wrote:
I'm german. I'm looking at the consequences of where that kind of thing tends to end when I even just look out of my window. And from this perspective I can only urgently warn you of it:


Your entitled to your view and I respect that
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:25 am

Happy New Year everybody. That the Brexit may be as painless as possible.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:59 am

Dutchy wrote:
Happy New Year everybody. That the Brexit may be as painless as possible.


Happy new year, how's the head?

:coffee: anyone!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:55 am

A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
I had been talking to Seahawk – a fellow german member – who keeps trolling you UK Leavers around here.


Well least he's keeping himself amused


To be honest I find people from outside the UK, who think that they know better, equally amusing. Some things of the Brexit are amusing, like the idea that the UK could have all benefits and no drawbacks, especially if you consider a situation where Germany would be doing the exit and demanding the same from the remaining EU countries. British press and politicians would be having a fit.

But on the other hand I do understand the desire to take back control and regain a position of full sovereignty. And even if people are doing it for the blue passports, if it makes them happy, good for them.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:35 pm

seahawk wrote:
But on the other hand I do understand the desire to take back control and regain a position of full sovereignty.

Not directed at yourself in particular, but would anyone care to name a country that actually has 'full sovereign control'?

You're going to struggle, it's a mythical status. I suppose North Korea is getting close to that description.....look how well that's going.

Simple fact is all EU members retain their sovereignty. The EU can't force any member to place legislation onto their statutes. The UK even had a veto on most things to stop items even reaching the EU books, never mind their own. #brexitfallacy

And even if people are doing it for the blue passports, if it makes them happy, good for them.

If they feel that strongly about the colour of the passport cover they could simply start a you gov petition. Get enough signatures and parliament will debate it. There's no need to shaft everyone to change the colour of a document.

The EU doesn't force member states to have burgandy covers. A member state can choose whatever colour they wish. The only 'EU requirements' are a small section of wording and some common (international) security features #brexitfallacy
Last edited by ChrisKen on Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:42 pm

seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
I had been talking to Seahawk – a fellow german member – who keeps trolling you UK Leavers around here.


Well least he's keeping himself amused


To be honest I find people from outside the UK, who think that they know better, equally amusing. Some things of the Brexit are amusing, like the idea that the UK could have all benefits and no drawbacks, especially if you consider a situation where Germany would be doing the exit and demanding the same from the remaining EU countries. British press and politicians would be having a fit.

But on the other hand I do understand the desire to take back control and regain a position of full sovereignty. And even if people are doing it for the blue passports, if it makes them happy, good for them.


Besides, it is truly not a beneficial move in any way and the arguments don't fly when held under scrutiny, I feel that in this case, I am entitled to have an opinion about it, because it does affect me, as an EU citizen, as well. You might find it amusing, personally, I have still got to find the humoristic angle about this.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:58 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
seahawk wrote:
But on the other hand I do understand the desire to take back control and regain a position of full sovereignty.

Not directed at yourself in particular, but would anyone care to name a country that actually has 'full sovereign control'?

You're going to struggle, it's a mythical status. I suppose North Korea is getting close to that description.....look how well that's going.

Simple fact is all EU members retain their sovereignty. The EU can't force any member to place legislation onto their statutes. The UK even had a veto on most things to stop items even reaching the EU books, never mind their own. #brexitfallacy

And even if people are doing it for the blue passports, if it makes them happy, good for them.

If they feel that strongly about the colour of the passport cover they could simply start a you gov petition. Get enough signatures and parliment will debate it. There's no need to shaft everyone to change a colour of a document

The EU doesn't force member states to have burgandy covers. A member state can chose whatever colour they wish. The only 'EU requirements' are a small section of wording and some common (international) security features #brexitfallacy


Being in the EU does come with limitations to your sovereignty. From having to meet standards for your budget to needing to confirm with common standards. One could say this is actually a good thing, as it adds a layer of protection for the inhabitants of one country when the government there tries to move away from common standards on personal freedom or social protection, but I can also see how one could see it as a limitation of sovereignty.
In the end I think all those opt outs and veto rights of the UK actually caused this mess, because they all strengthened the idea that the UK has a special status in the EU, while it also meant that British citizens did not experience the advantages of the EU on the same level. I can jump into a plane to Spain, France or Italy just with my id and a ticket and when I land, I simply pay the taxi with the money in my wallet. I can then buy whatever I like in the shops and take it back home with me.
A British citizen does not experience this. I always find this pretty obvious in holiday destinations around the Med. The ones for Germans or Dutch look different than 20 years ago. The money exchange places are gone, everything is bit more mixed than before.
In the majorly British places time seems to have stood still by comparison. Money exchange shops, all signs in English, everything very much catering for British interests,

I think due to the UK being an island and opting out of many measures that brought the EU closer together, few people are actually experiencing the advantages in their daily lives. There must be reasons why the Expats in Spain or the people in Northern Ireland and Gibraltar were strongly pro remain.

But then as long politicians in the UK put career and party over country, there is nothing that will change the outcome.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:14 pm

seahawk wrote:
Being in the EU does come with limitations to your sovereignty.

As does every other deal you do with another nation.

From having to meet standards for your budget to needing to confirm with common standards.

The standards are indeed useful, but the EU cannot force a member to comply with them. There's a long list of items various EU members do not comply with.
I think all those opt outs and veto rights of the UK actually caused this mess

Maybe, although the unabashed 50 years of domestic politics blaming everything on the convenient EU scapegoat or mythical 'EU rules made by unelected, meddling Johnny foreigners' have played a greater part.
They've got away with it because the average Joe doesn't have a clue how the EU works nor wishes too. Which is why you see mostly utter tosh from your average brexiteer. They will just keep on spouting the same tired old and ill-informed soundbites they've been fed for years because they know no different nor wish to look more closely.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:26 pm

Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:

Well least he's keeping himself amused


To be honest I find people from outside the UK, who think that they know better, equally amusing. Some things of the Brexit are amusing, like the idea that the UK could have all benefits and no drawbacks, especially if you consider a situation where Germany would be doing the exit and demanding the same from the remaining EU countries. British press and politicians would be having a fit.

But on the other hand I do understand the desire to take back control and regain a position of full sovereignty. And even if people are doing it for the blue passports, if it makes them happy, good for them.


Besides, it is truly not a beneficial move in any way and the arguments don't fly when held under scrutiny, I feel that in this case, I am entitled to have an opinion about it, because it does affect me, as an EU citizen, as well. You might find it amusing, personally, I have still got to find the humoristic angle about this.


I find it funny when people from the EU believe they could convince Brexiteers to change their opinion, because you can be 100% certain that the audience does not want to listen and does not care about any argument.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:50 pm

seahawk wrote:
I find it funny when people from the EU believe they could convince Brexiteers to change their opinion, because you can be 100% certain that the audience does not want to listen and does not care about any argument.


Okay, on this one you may have a point. For the hardcore Brexiteers, anyway.

But I am encouraged by polls during November and December that the current mess with the legislation stalled in parliament has actually made the casual leaver start to question the whole thing. Even Liam Fox only gives it 50/50 odds of it happening now!

With any luck, the entire process will collapse and the government will be forced to retract Article 50 - probably following a second referendum. I expect there will be a firestorm from the leave camp for the next few years, but hopefully a majority of people will pay a bit more attention to the role of the EU and see the benefits for what they actually are.

It depends largely on a bit more factual reporting in the media and less fake-news type influences than the last couple of years. For example, I notice that the BBC has hinted that the government tried to deliberately play up the illegal immigrant story again over Christmas (suddenly it's a news story and Sajid Javid is peddling the line that it's some kind of emergency) e.g. by posting some facts highlighting how utterly insignificant it (still) is:

In 2016-17 the figure was estimated to be 2,366, decreasing to 1,832 in 2017-18.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46722157
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:52 pm

A101 wrote:

Both side would like no hard border but if the rules are different there only two answers and both arnt going to be up and running in time.
1) A hard Border
2) Reunification of Ireland



As a resident of NI it amazes me that many people run on the idea that Brexit is final, 'democracy' must be respected by the country as a whole, whilst at the same time suggesting that part of the UK can or will be put through economic suffering by a hard border, face annexation or be given away to Ireland (impossible, btw- us 'Ulster' folk decide that, and it is dependent on whether Ireland even wants us), which is very much against the will of it's people, and most importantly was never part of the deal when we voted 2 years ago. Did the UK vote for NI to be cut loose? Is that an acceptable consequence? Does that breach the GFA? Does everyone have to 'tippex' their new and inferior blue passport when by definition and name the UK ceases to exist, and you are left with Great Britain? What about the removal of the flag of St. Patrick from the Union Flag? When local businesses suffer or go bust will there be a whip-around everywhere else to help those who have no job or lose their home? The reason I say all of this is because unless you are on of the 10 clueless DUP dinosaurs it suddenly feels very hard to be Northern Irish whilst having any sense of pride in being British

frmrCapCadet wrote:

As I understand it EU has offered a reasonable accommodation for the Ireland border. Roughly, the north would stay in the in the customs union. There would be a border in the Irish Sea. But already it generally is a large boat/ship trip or an airflight between the big island and the small island. The north voted, with a substantial majority, to remain in the EU. For a relatively small budget customs for goods and passport control could be quick and efficient. People from the north would, with their ROI passport and UK passport have enviable privilege in the EU and UK. The DUP (polite term, ultra right wingnuts) is opposed. The people of North Ireland likely greatly in favor.


Pretty much spot on here :) It's not the ideal situation for our people, but it is the best and most practical solution should Brexit actually happen. I imagine it won't be very different to the current arrangement on flights to or from the Channel Islands, which most people go through without even realising they're going through it. I wonder would passport checks need to be implemented though? That has potential to be a sore subject for many local people.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:11 pm

Here in the US we can get an enhanced driver license/ID which can be used for Mexico and Canada. I think it costs about $15 new or renewal every 5 years.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:30 pm

seahawk wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:

To be honest I find people from outside the UK, who think that they know better, equally amusing. Some things of the Brexit are amusing, like the idea that the UK could have all benefits and no drawbacks, especially if you consider a situation where Germany would be doing the exit and demanding the same from the remaining EU countries. British press and politicians would be having a fit.

But on the other hand I do understand the desire to take back control and regain a position of full sovereignty. And even if people are doing it for the blue passports, if it makes them happy, good for them.


Besides, it is truly not a beneficial move in any way and the arguments don't fly when held under scrutiny, I feel that in this case, I am entitled to have an opinion about it, because it does affect me, as an EU citizen, as well. You might find it amusing, personally, I have still got to find the humoristic angle about this.


I find it funny when people from the EU believe they could convince Brexiteers to change their opinion, because you can be 100% certain that the audience does not want to listen and does not care about any argument.


Oh that is true, hardcore Brexiteers will not be convinced by anything. Look at A101, he admitted that no argument can persuade him from his point of view and his perceived benefit of total freedom. But let's be fair, I can't be easily be persuaded by any of the pro-Brexiteers points of view either, nevertheless, it can be done with the right arguments and with the right studies to provide evidence for that scenario. I haven't seen anything though.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:20 pm

opticalilyushin wrote:

As a resident of NI it amazes me that many people run on the idea that Brexit is final, 'democracy' must be respected by the country as a whole, whilst at the same time suggesting that part of the UK can or will be put through economic suffering by a hard border, face annexation or be given away to Ireland (impossible, btw- us 'Ulster' folk decide that, and it is dependent on whether Ireland even wants us), which is very much against the will of it's people, and most importantly was never part of the deal when we voted 2 years ago. Did the UK vote for NI to be cut loose? Is that an acceptable consequence? Does that breach the GFA? Does everyone have to 'tippex' their new and inferior blue passport when by definition and name the UK ceases to exist, and you are left with Great Britain? What about the removal of the flag of St. Patrick from the Union Flag? When local businesses suffer or go bust will there be a whip-around everywhere else to help those who have no job or lose their home? The reason I say all of this is because unless you are on of the 10 clueless DUP dinosaurs it suddenly feels very hard to be Northern Irish whilst having any sense of pride in being British


I have said a referendum should take place on the matter of secession from the UK, and for that matter referendum would have to take place in the south on reunification


frmrCapCadet wrote:

As I understand it EU has offered a reasonable accommodation for the Ireland border. Roughly, the north would stay in the in the customs union. There would be a border in the Irish Sea. But already it generally is a large boat/ship trip or an airflight between the big island and the small island. The north voted, with a substantial majority, to remain in the EU. For a relatively small budget customs for goods and passport control could be quick and efficient. People from the north would, with their ROI passport and UK passport have enviable privilege in the EU and UK. The DUP (polite term, ultra right wingnuts) is opposed. The people of North Ireland likely greatly in favor.

Pretty much spot on here :) It's not the ideal situation for our people, but it is the best and most practical solution should Brexit actually happen. I imagine it won't be very different to the current arrangement on flights to or from the Channel Islands, which most people go through without even realising they're going through it. I wonder would passport checks need to be implemented though? That has potential to be a sore subject for many local people.


Ok let’s say NI remains a vassal state and a hard border put in place in the Irish Sea, does that also mean any imports/exports from the UK will have restrictions as well, you can’t have it both ways. problem there if you want to remain part of the UK that includes abiding by the laws of the UK which includes trade, it’s impossible to have a toe in the water and not get wet, that also does not mean an FTA won’t give some of the same benefits that has to be worked out later. But it should become NI decision if it want to be part of the EU or UK.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:36 pm

A101 wrote:

Ok let’s say NI remains a vassal state and a hard border put in place in the Irish Sea, does that also mean any imports/exports from the UK will have restrictions as well, you can’t have it both ways.


Theresa May is the one trying to have it both ways. It first assured the Irish there'd be no hard border and at the same time assured the unionists that NI would not diverge from the (rest of) UK.

The only possible solution for that is for the UK to remain in the EU. Any other situation implies a border somewhere, either on the island or on the sea.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:36 pm

I should clarify that a third position is avalible to NI, and the it becomes a sovereign nation of its own, which then means applying to become a member of the EU . So there options

1) stay in UK
2) reunification of Ireland
3) becomes an independent sovereign nation
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:40 pm

A101 wrote:
I should clarify that a third position is avalible to NI, and the it becomes a sovereign nation of its own, which then means applying to become a member of the EU . So there options

1) stay in UK
2) reunification of Ireland
3) becomes an independent sovereign nation


Perhaps that is the best option. Become a separate nation within the EU. For all practical perpuses, you have an unification with the rest of Ireland, but not in name.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:51 pm

JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:

Ok let’s say NI remains a vassal state and a hard border put in place in the Irish Sea, does that also mean any imports/exports from the UK will have restrictions as well, you can’t have it both ways.


Theresa May is the one trying to have it both ways. It first assured the Irish there'd be no hard border and at the same time assured the unionists that NI would not diverge from the (rest of) UK.

The only possible solution for that is for the UK to remain in the EU. Any other situation implies a border somewhere, either on the island or on the sea.



That’s because TM is not a believer in the exist,

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.ft. ... d3531b7d11
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:34 pm

A101 wrote:

I have said a referendum should take place on the matter of secession from the UK, and for that matter referendum would have to take place in the south on reunification


Perhaps, but what a shame that NI may have to now be forced into stirring things up by having a referendum when the majority of the population, regardless of background are pretty happy with the status quo. Alas it's the 'little Britain' phenomenon where some don't seem to care what happens outside of their own island. I'm curious to know if you would encourage a referendum on the status of Gibraltar or the Falklands in the same situation, whilst knowing most of their inhabitants don't really want change..

Brexit will be an economic disaster for the rural parts of the country- Northern Scotland, NI, parts of Wales and Cornwall as examples, so I ask, is this so called Brexit really more important than maintaining the economy as well as the ancient union of England, NI, Scotland and Wales?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:19 am

opticalilyushin wrote:

Perhaps, but what a shame that NI may have to now be forced into stirring things up by having a referendum when the majority of the population, regardless of background are pretty happy with the status quo. Alas it's the 'little Britain' phenomenon where some don't seem to care what happens outside of their own island. I'm curious to know if you would encourage a referendum on the status of Gibraltar or the Falklands in the same situation, whilst knowing most of their inhabitants don't really want change..


Is NI not part of the UK?
Did NI cast a vote in the referendum?
As NI overall did not vote to leave but the majority did, should that then mean NI is excluded from the referendum result even tho it was a collective vote across the UK?

opticalilyushin wrote:
Brexit will be an economic disaster for the rural parts of the country- Northern Scotland, NI, parts of Wales and Cornwall as examples, so I ask, is this so called Brexit really more important than maintaining the economy as well as the ancient union of England, NI, Scotland and Wales?



How do you know it’s not in your interests long term, the it’s in everyone’s interest that a FTA is drawn up PDQ that satisfie’s all concerned.

My view is short term pain for long term gain, it’s not over till a satisfactory FTA is drawn up. In regards to secession from the UK, that is for the area of interest to decide, just as in the last Scottish leave referendum I had no view as it was up to them.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:46 am

Cloud cuckoo land.

Who's this wonderful FTA going to be with? The EU?
Which bit of the four pillars do you not get, they won't budge on those and rightly so.
AS A THIRD COUNTRY THE UK WILL NOT GET A BETTER DEAL (or even something remotely equal to) THAN THE ONE IT ALREADY HAS AS A MEMBER. This is a cold hard fact, despite what the bellends promising purple unicorns still keep on insisting.
Oh, you meant other countries....have you seen how many aren't queuing up for a deal?

We currently have free trade with the EU, we have sovereign status, we have control of our borders, we have a United Kingdom, we have a common travel area, we adhere to the GFA and you could even have your poxy blue passport cover too. Why on bob's green earth would you vote to lose it all?
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:38 am

New Year's eve I happened to talk to an English friend - a Remainer. We seemed to agree that the WA had no future. It won't pass the House. It was a way to make 29 wasted months into 31 wasted months. No more, no less.

That for me leaves two options left: Off the cliff on 29 March, or withdrawal of A50.

But my English friend told me that there may be a more likely third option: That the A50 end date 29 March 2019 is postponed, say, six months, maybe multiple times, maybe many times, six months at a time, until some time in the future when the UK by miracle again gets a working government.

My friend told that on the western side of the Channel this 3rd option among ordinary people was rather widely believed to be possible.

I would like to see comments on that subject here: Is such a postponement being discussed? Would such a temporary outcome start a civil war in the UK? Does Mr. Barnier have the authority to approve it? Will EU27 countries ever accept it? Other aspects?
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:47 am

To me that should not be an option, but from my understanding the UK can only ask for an extension it’s then up to the EU to grant it.

That’s just kicking the can down the road holding out for a miracle by the remainers. I would like to think that the UK is above that civil unrest shitstorm carry-on
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:48 am

I do not see the problem with Northern Ireland, the obvious solution as border between the UK and the RoI. Like it has been for a long time. British sovereignty must not be questioned.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:48 am

A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:

Ok let’s say NI remains a vassal state and a hard border put in place in the Irish Sea, does that also mean any imports/exports from the UK will have restrictions as well, you can’t have it both ways.


Theresa May is the one trying to have it both ways. It first assured the Irish there'd be no hard border and at the same time assured the unionists that NI would not diverge from the (rest of) UK.

The only possible solution for that is for the UK to remain in the EU. Any other situation implies a border somewhere, either on the island or on the sea.



That’s because TM is not a believer in the exist,

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.ft. ... d3531b7d11


Does it matter? It's just a reflection of a political class and general population that don't know what they're talking about (or worse, they talk bollocks knowing they're hiding the truth when not actively lying) and they've transmitted that to the electorate because it always works to click their we're special button.
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:13 am

seahawk wrote:
I do not see the problem with Northern Ireland, the obvious solution as border between the UK and the RoI. Like it has been for a long time. British sovereignty must not be questioned.


A physical hard border would be difficult given the length of the border, the large number of roads that cross it and even that it cuts through the middle of some farming fields
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:15 am

prebennorholm wrote:
But my English friend told me that there may be a more likely third option: That the A50 end date 29 March 2019 is postponed, say, six months, maybe multiple times, maybe many times, six months at a time, until some time in the future when the UK by miracle again gets a working government.


An extension of A50 would require the unanimous agreement of EU27. I can see both France and Spain playing hardball on that in order to leverage specific issues. Far from guaranteed, IMHO.

ChrisKen wrote:
Why on bob's green earth would you vote to lose it all?


You know -

Take back control
Give £350 million extra per week to the NHS
Control immigration
Negotiate all these fantastic trade deals (it's very easy apparently) with everyone outside the EU who are all gagging for one.
Annoy the soy-latte sipping metropolitan elite in SE England (because that was the country's biggest issue!)

In the event of cold, hard reality biting you in the ass, continue to repeat above while offering no ideas or solutions to solve the challenges.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:20 am

They do not need to have a wall there. All it needs is a border where there are checks. It is not as if you could not walk over the border between France and Germany before Schengen.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:43 am

prebennorholm wrote:
But my English friend told me that there may be a more likely third option: That the A50 end date 29 March 2019 is postponed, say, six months, maybe multiple times, maybe many times, six months at a time, until some time in the future when the UK by miracle again gets a working government.

My friend told that on the western side of the Channel this 3rd option among ordinary people was rather widely believed to be possible.

I would like to see comments on that subject here: Is such a postponement being discussed? Would such a temporary outcome start a civil war in the UK? Does Mr. Barnier have the authority to approve it? Will EU27 countries ever accept it? Other aspects?


Barnier can not grant an extension to the 2 year period, that would require approval from the EU27. It would be interesting to see if they will grant it. My guess is that they will if the UK can give them a good reason to, like to have a new referendum. But, considering the lack of progress so far, how would six more months or one more year help?
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:34 pm

seahawk wrote:
They do not need to have a wall there. All it needs is a border where there are checks. It is not as if you could not walk over the border between France and Germany before Schengen.


A quick search online shows there are approximately 270 public roads that cross the border, and then there will be many country lanes or passages on private land. It's worth noting that the vast majority of these roads are not major roads or motorways, and in some cases there are roads that cross the border back and forth in the distance of a couple of kilometres. In the old days some roads were actually manned like this every few hundred metres as it weaved across the line. It would be very expensive and a logistical mess to try and man, control or otherwise close off all of these roads and lanes. A hard border like this could possibly contravene the GFA too.

A101 wrote:

Is NI not part of the UK?
Did NI cast a vote in the referendum?
As NI overall did not vote to leave but the majority did, should that then mean NI is excluded from the referendum result even tho it was a collective vote across the UK?


Brexit has been nothing short of a farce. The country was asked to vote to something without any knowledge from the government as to what they were really voting for. There was no research or information on consequences or concessions that may result. We got a red bus with "£350 Million" printed on the side, and BoJo saying it'll all be ok because the French like our cakes!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1MVZYtX5Zg

Well quelle surprise that it was all lies, and the Brexiteering politicians all tried to resign when the results came through.

Brexit has very different consequences in different parts of the country. Busy cities like London and technology areas like the M4 corridor will fare very differently to sparsely populated areas all over the country. In NI, where businesses have had the last 2 decades to build up cross-border industries, all is now threatened. The PM, along with her cronies and the DUP want to have their constitutional cake and eat it, and we are on the verge of throwing away a union that has been dreamed about since the end of WW2 (I recently saw footage of Churchill talking about the formation of a union across Europe), and a union that has helped many industries, and promoted growth and regeneration of much of the country in the last few decades.

A101 wrote:
How do you know it’s not in your interests long term, the it’s in everyone’s interest that a FTA is drawn up PDQ that satisfie’s all concerned.

My view is short term pain for long term gain, it’s not over till a satisfactory FTA is drawn up.


As mentioned above, we will never get a trade deal as good as what we have had as EU members..even the so-called special relationship with the US is on the rocks because Trump loves stirring things up.
 
sbworcs
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:39 pm


My view is short term pain for long term gain, it’s not over till a satisfactory FTA is drawn up. In regards to secession from the UK, that is for the area of interest to decide, just as in the last Scottish leave referendum I had no view as it was up to them.


How long to you classify as "short-term". According to arch brexiteer JRM it could be 50 years before the benefits are felt?
The best way forwards is upwards!
 
sbworcs
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:44 pm


Negotiate all these fantastic trade deals (it's very easy apparently) with everyone outside the EU who are all gagging for one.


The easiest in history even. (Although when later questionned the poltician implied that no-one said deals would be easy and that he was not sure how anyone could think he meant deals would be easy when he said they would be the easiest in history)
The best way forwards is upwards!
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:33 pm

prebennorholm wrote:
But my English friend told me that there may be a more likely third option: That the A50 end date 29 March 2019 is postponed, say, six months, maybe multiple times, maybe many times, six months at a time, until some time in the future when the UK by miracle again gets a working government.


This would be a very undesirable outcome as businesses need certainty not a longer period of uncertainty. It has come to the point that any decision is better than no decision (which a postponement is). However, I think you underestimate Theresa May. She's playing the ultimate power game very well and I wouldn't be surprised if she has enough votes on January 21st (as I think she'll delay the vote until the very last moment for maximum pressure). Throw in a few knight hoods, some extras for some very vocal MPs and threaten others with withdrawing funds and she may get it done. All the talk we currently hear has no meaning as MPs will take a decision only a few moments before they vote, and I don't think all Labour MPs will vote against May (despite what Corbyn wants/thinks). I believe we underestimate May greatly as we don't know what's going on behind the closed doors. Should she really have no majority, then I expect her to withdraw the plan prior to a vote (and stepping down at the same time). She doesn't deserve to get hammered in parliament.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:33 am

A101 wrote:
zkojq wrote:

Please explain how you enforce those exceptions without a hard border?

Its called an FTA


You mean to say that the US, Canada and Mexico, or any other two countries that only have an FTA between them, have just forgotten to remove their respective hard border? What a waste of tax payer money that it......

In order for an FTA to remove the need for a hard border you need to have common standards and a customs union. A FTA solves nothing.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:45 am

IAG know the score. They aren’t stupid.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/elpais.c ... 4.amp.html
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 73G 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75

Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:21 am

Arion640 wrote:
IAG know the score. They aren’t stupid.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/elpais.c ... 4.amp.html

So?
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:24 am

marcelh wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
IAG know the score. They aren’t stupid.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/elpais.c ... 4.amp.html

So?


All the nonsense on this thread saying IAG would have to break up/dissolve/whatever whatever.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 73G 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75

Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
marcelh
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:27 am

Arion640 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
IAG know the score. They aren’t stupid.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/elpais.c ... 4.amp.html

So?


All the nonsense on this thread saying IAG would have to break up/dissolve/whatever whatever.

Some insignificant details compared to the real suffering the UK is heading to.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:28 am

marcelh wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
So?


All the nonsense on this thread saying IAG would have to break up/dissolve/whatever whatever.

Some insignificant details compared to the real suffering the UK is heading to.


Europhiles proved wrong yet again.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 73G 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75

Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
marcelh
Posts: 294
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:02 am

Arion640 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

All the nonsense on this thread saying IAG would have to break up/dissolve/whatever whatever.

Some insignificant details compared to the real suffering the UK is heading to.


Europhiles proved wrong yet again.


Only Iberia is saying that it’s Spanish; I haven’t read anything about an agreement.
Dreaming-of-the-“glorious”-past Brexiteers are jumping into conclusions too fast
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:02 am

Arion640 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

All the nonsense on this thread saying IAG would have to break up/dissolve/whatever whatever.

Some insignificant details compared to the real suffering the UK is heading to.


Europhiles proved wrong yet again.


???? nothing has been proved in this regard at this stage.

On hard Brexit the EU have already said there would be a one year cooling off period where they would allow standing arrangements to continue (assuming the UK reciprocates) , after that nothing is certain.....

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/fi ... nda_en.pdf

This is of course the reason why easyJet, Ryanair and Wizz Air have all had to go to the huge costs and waste of setting up foreign subsidiaries and re-registering aircraft,,,, IAG think they have this covered, and they have some very clever people working for them, but as the article linked to points out, it is not yet certain.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:26 am

Arion640 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
IAG know the score. They aren’t stupid.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/elpais.c ... 4.amp.html

So?


All the nonsense on this thread saying IAG would have to break up/dissolve/whatever whatever.


Have you actually read the article? They are setting their position for a protracted legal battle which may well end up with major changes on ownership and controlling stakes.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:56 am

Arion640 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

All the nonsense on this thread saying IAG would have to break up/dissolve/whatever whatever.

Some insignificant details compared to the real suffering the UK is heading to.


Europhiles proved wrong yet again.


Nah, Brexiteers proven to not read the links they provide once more.

your source wrote:
“We are convinced that we will comply with all applicable norms over ownership and control, both in the UK and in the EU, after Brexit,"


Being convinced of something is not the same as knowing something.....

your source wrote:
and we are also convinced that, if necessary, the company will make the required adjustments to ensure it complies with European norms.


Seems they are committed to making the required changes.......

your source wrote:
The question now is whether the European Commission will accept that Iberia is a EU company considering that all economic rights over it are in the hands of the British IAG. Whether El Corte Inglés has any real power over the airline is a matter of debate; Jorge Pont, a Corte Inglés executive, is also the vice-president of Iberia.


So what you posted is just the IAGs Management position..... geez, what a surprise.... and the EU Commission still has to accept their reasoning.

And it is not only the EU comission they have to convince, they also have to convince every other country IAG Airlines fly to that IAG is Spanish/European and UK based at the same time ...

Being on the bad side of the EU by not accepting the Lufthansa/Swiss or IAG ownership arrangements in place probably isn´t a great idea, which is good news for Iberia, but the future UK government doesn´t have much weight to throw around and may not have the muscle to pull the same off for BA with each and every destination nation.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:08 pm

Arion640 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
IAG know the score. They aren’t stupid.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/elpais.c ... 4.amp.html

So?


All the nonsense on this thread saying IAG would have to break up/dissolve/whatever whatever.


Premature brexitjaculation again. :rotfl:

Nothing settled. How can IAG be EU (Spanish) and UK at the same time when both require 50%+ ownership? I'm no accountant, but I'm pretty sure that can't be done.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:40 pm

scbriml wrote:
Nothing settled. How can IAG be EU (Spanish) and UK at the same time when both require 50%+ ownership? I'm no accountant, but I'm pretty sure that can't be done.


The same reason that whilst AF/KL (French company) owns a majority stake in KLM, KLM still accounts of being "Dutch" for air traffic rights purposes. However, the issue at IAG is about who effectively controls Iberia (and Aer Lingus). As we've seen with the (now defunct) Swiss airline Etihad Regional aka Darwin Airline, effective control is much more important than real ownership when it come to EU regulation. The EU assumes effective control when a company owns 50% or more of the voting stock, which apparently isn't the case at Iberia. IAG thus needs to demonstrate it doesn't effectively controls Iberia and/or Aer Lingus or it should be able to show that IAG is majority owned by EU residing nationals/entities. This won't be easy as Lufthansa, AF/KL and probably some LCCs would not hesitate to ask for an ECJ ruling as this would enable them to hinder a competitor.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:54 pm

scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
So?


All the nonsense on this thread saying IAG would have to break up/dissolve/whatever whatever.


Premature brexitjaculation again. :rotfl:

Nothing settled. How can IAG be EU (Spanish) and UK at the same time when both require 50%+ ownership? I'm no accountant, but I'm pretty sure that can't be done.


Have you ever seen any mathematics from a Brexiteer that wasn´t abstract algebra? With the right definition of group states it probably can be done.....

LJ wrote:
The same reason that whilst AF/KL (French company) owns a majority stake in KLM, KLM still accounts of being "Dutch" for air traffic rights purposes. However, the issue at IAG is about who effectively controls Iberia (and Aer Lingus). As we've seen with the (now defunct) Swiss airline Etihad Regional aka Darwin Airline, effective control is much more important than real ownership when it come to EU regulation. The EU assumes effective control when a company owns 50% or more of the voting stock, which apparently isn't the case at Iberia. IAG thus needs to demonstrate it doesn't effectively controls Iberia and/or Aer Lingus or it should be able to show that IAG is majority owned by EU residing nationals/entities. This won't be easy as Lufthansa, AF/KL and probably some LCCs would not hesitate to ask for an ECJ ruling as this would enable them to hinder a competitor.


I think it will be a lot more difficult. What options did non-EU countries have other than to accept the AF/KL or LH Group construct.... say "no", effectively end up without a bilateral agreement and whatever new Air Service Agreement they want to get after that, it will be with the EU as a whole and not Switzerland, France, the Netherlands or Germany, so they all had plenty of Incentive to play along.

Each country will balance risk/reward war letting BA keep its traffic rights, doing the same with the EU is quite pointless.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:17 am

The EU doesn't care that AFKL is French or Dutch or both, just like it doesn't care that IAG is British or Spanish, as long as all the countries involved are in the EU. Keeping KLM Dutch is only a consideration for third countries, for very different reasons.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:37 am

Image
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
jcancel
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:02 am

Aesma wrote:
Image


Is that money from JRM's and the others' bank accounts? I think it should be ;)
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 4: Until the last Tory Standing

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:48 am

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... ard-border

Good to see the UK finally preparing for a real Brexit and preparing to protect the British border.

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