tommy1808 wrote:

KLDC10 wrote:

Interesting how the polls vary.

Don't they always? I stick to ARD deutschlandtrend and politikbarometer, since they use consistent methology over long periods of time.

Namely that, if the CSU were to break away from the Union and contest elections throughout Germany as an entirely independent party, they would end up with 22% of the vote, making them the second-largest party in the country after the CDU.

Nah, but understandable misread, in that case the CDU would get 22 and the CSU 18, at least if you took that out of your The Welt link.

Best regards
Thomas

You're quite correct - that's my mistake. The text reads "wenn die größere Schwesterpartei auch in Bayern wählbar wäre", which of course refers to the CDU. The CSU would indeed be at 18%. German is not my first language evidently , but it is thoroughly enjoyable to learn. The problem of course is that you can't quite "skim-read" an article in between work tasks as you might be able to in your native language. That will teach me to attempt a summary of German sources in a ten-minute break!

Still, 18% is quite high, and together the CDU and CSU would garner 40% of the vote. In fact, although the two parties have been reluctant to change the nature of their partnership, it might benefit the Union overall if the CSU were allowed to compete in other states.

KLDC10 wrote:

but it is thoroughly enjoyable to learn.

I would disagree
But four of my US friends feel the same, three of them studied German here for half a year and their book began with "learning German is pointless, because everybody there speaks English", which is a tat optimistic.

it might benefit the Union overall if the CSU were allowed to compete in other states.

Short term perhaps, but they do adress largely the same voter base, so one of them would need to move waaaay left to make that pan out in the long run.
That question pops up from time.to time in polls and iirc a sum total of 40% is not a more convincing outcome then before.

Best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

KLDC10 wrote:

but it is thoroughly enjoyable to learn.

I would disagree
But four of my US friends feel the same, three of them studied German here for half a year and their book began with "learning German is pointless, because everybody there speaks English", which is a tat optimistic.

it might benefit the Union overall if the CSU were allowed to compete in other states.

Short term perhaps, but they do adress largely the same voter base, so one of them would need to move waaaay left to make that pan out in the long run.
That question pops up from time.to time in polls and iirc a sum total of 40% is not a more convincing outcome then before.

Best regards
Thomas

That's true to an extent; but I still think it's better to learn the language. The fact that many countries do instruct their children in English from an early age only makes those of us who come from English-speaking countries lazy in my opinion.

But back to the topic:
I assume that the survey referenced in 'Die Welt' is predicated upon the current policies of the parties. I imagine the CDU could pick off a few voters from the FDP by subsequently adopting more liberal economic (and maybe even to a certain extent social) policies and attempt to fashion itself as a party of the center, leaving the CSU to do the heavy lifting against the AFD.

It would, however, be 40% in what is a rather splintered political landscape (assuming of course that such an action is undertaken with the consent of both parties in the form of a new partnership, rather than the CSU unilaterally deciding to break up the Union and go it alone). Gone are the days when Helmut Kohl could lead the Union to 48% of the popular vote (as he did in 1983 if my recollection is correct). Of course, the splintering is most pronounced on the left, with the SPD, Die Grünen und Die Linke all claiming to represent left-wing interests, but the point is that it is much harder today to win a majority than it was even a few years ago. Even the dominance of the Union on the right of the political spectrum is being threatened by the AFD, which I think is not a passing trend, but here to stay (in Sachsen the party is polling around 24%) . It's a problem in other countries too, of course, but with Germany being the main economic anchor of Europe, unstable governments threaten problems for the whole continent. A dysfunctional, splintered German Bundestag is the last thing anyone needs.

tommy1808 wrote:

Redd wrote:

If people knew asylum was unattainable by dangerous methods which are being currently used, such as overloaded rafts, they wouldn't be coming..

Such a regulation would also be illegal under international law, which in Europe is directly applicable in court, as it should be.

best regards
Thomas

It is, didn't realize that. But it is a vague law.... For example:

"International refugee law or international human rights treaties neither articulate an explicit entitlement to asylum for the individuals concerned, nor impose an obligation on states to grant asylum. The Geneva Convention does not guarantee asylum-seekers the right to be granted refugee status, even if they fulfill the conditions to be considered refugees; this remains at state discretion."

Followed by:

"States have, however, to refrain from actions that would endanger asylum-seekers, especially from returning them to their country of origin. "

So international law imposes no obligation to accept asylum seekers but can't send them back to country of origin, so that is a legal limbo. Not something that should exist for the crisis that we are now facing. One way or another there needs to be a black and white answer and a united EU standing behind it.

tommy1808 wrote:

But four of my US friends feel the same, three of them studied German here for half a year and their book began with "learning German is pointless, because everybody there speaks English", which is a tat optimistic.

That is so completely wrong, unless your primary intent is only to say that you've 'been there'. No way can you ever really know a place or people if you can't understand what they are saying among themselves. I also found as people aged, they are less likely to remember or uncomfortable using their school English. Unfortunate that you had Americans willing to learn who ultimately felt they didn't need to. They were in a bubble.

Redd wrote:

If people knew asylum was unattainable by dangerous methods which are being currently used, such as overloaded rafts, they wouldn't be coming..

Exactly, in this regard we can learn a lot from Australia, they send out a clear message to illegal migrants, sink their boats and turn them back or detain them on various islands in the Pacific. Has worked as a great deterrent, almost none are attempting to cross nowadays. See also this video:

[youtube]rT12WH4a92w[/youtube]

Redd wrote:

But it is a vague law...

It is, but could easily made clearer to stem the influx. Germany is now planning to set up so called "Ankerzentren" where all the migrants will be held until their status is clear: Identity, age, whether they have a chance to be granted asylum or not. It's a start, but moving those centres to the European outer borders would be even better IMO. There's plenty of space on various isles in the mediterranean.

What's also to note is that most of the incoming migrants are economic migrants, who buy the fairytales told to them by people trafficers in their home countries about what to expect in Europe. Only a rather small amount are actually legit war refugees e.g. from Syria, if it were only them coming we wouldn't even be having this whole debate.

Zeppi wrote:

What's also to note is that most of the incoming migrants are economic migrants, who buy the fairytales told to them by people trafficers in their home countries about what to expect in Europe. Only a rather small amount are actually legit war refugees e.g. from Syria, if it were only them coming we wouldn't even be having this whole debate.

That's exactly the point. I'm all for taking refugees from Syria. Even all of them, these people are truly in dire need and need help... Economic migrants should only have the option of going through official immigration channels. That way we could allocate funds to really help assimilate people and integrate them into society.

Yes, it would free up resources to help those really in need in general, be it housing, language schooling, medical assistance and also on the organisational side of Germany it would help to get things back to an orderly fashion. I don't know if you've heard about the BAMF failures?
Whenever chatting with the local police (which is a lot as my office is right next to their station) it becomes clear how understaffed they are to handle the current situation. Many cases cannot even be properly investigated, as they simply lack the manpower to do so. One officer told me that calls to things like traffic accidents are now less than calls to asylum shelters to separate migrants having a go at each other for the most childish reasons you can imagine. Then there was the infamous case of Ellwangen a couple of months ago, where an african migrant (I forget where from exactly, I think it was Togo) was to be deported. A mob of migrants attacked the police so violently that they were forced to retreat for self protection, and return in full riot gear in overwhelming forces to get the situation under control.

mham001 wrote:

No way can you ever really know a place or people if you can't understand what they are saying among themselves. I also found as people aged, they are less likely to remember or uncomfortable using their school English. Unfortunate that you had Americans willing to learn who ultimately felt they didn't need to. They were in a bubble.

Especially humor often doesn´t translate at all... but that was just their book saying that, they liked German, maintain their language skill and teach their kids, because they want to send them over to for exchange programs in school, and maybe later to University, since it is free of charge and being abroad is always a good learning experience.
They where however somewhat "bubbled", since it is really hard to keep speaking German with them if slipping into English is so easy and tempting.

best regards
Thomas.

My gosh what is Germany going to do with all these unwanted people?

Casobs wrote:

My gosh what is Germany going to do with all these unwanted people?

Send them to the UK I expect. We could do with some more Muslims.