As the title says, Airbus does not believe it will be able to deliver additional aircraft to Iran due to the expected sanctions.
Source, just in German language: https://www.abendblatt.de/hamburg/artic ... haeft.html

Best regards
N14AZ

The article is only for subscribers.

MartijnNL wrote:

The article is only for subscribers.

Here is another source saying basically the same: https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten/Wegen ... an/7920194

That was to be expected with to much US input into the Airbus planes.

I also expect that this thread will derail into a political fight in 3.2.1... Shall we keep politics out for a change?

Momo1435 wrote:

That was to be expected with to much US input into the Airbus planes.

I also expect that this thread will derail into a political fight in 3.2.1... Shall we keep politics out for a change?

Kinda hard to do when the topic of discussion is sanctions, isn't it? Politics is what ended the orders so politics can't be entirely separate from the conversation. Unfortunate that Airbus and Boeing lose out from the administrations decision to walk away from the deal.

Jeremy

It should not be an issue if the politics that is discussed is directly related to the sanctions or the aircraft orders. It's bad when it turns into a Trump is bad... no Iran is bad.. political discussion, which the previous threads on this subject turned into really quick.

It's hard not to keep it away from mud throwing though. What can we actually discuss in this matter? Could there be a way for Airbus to dodge these sanctions?

Interesting that Boeing seemed to be big backers of the administration, and now they are totally in the cold. I don't think it's possible to build a modern jetliner with zero US content, even the Sukhoi has some US parts, I seem to have heard. Not sure about that part. Anybody know if Russia can build an airliner with no US content?

40% of an Airbus is Made In The USA so it's impossible for Airbus to work with a country that is on the US sanctions list. That's just a fact.

cedarjet wrote:

40% of an Airbus is Made In The USA so it's impossible for Airbus to work with a country that is on the US sanctions list. That's just a fact.

In view of the love fest between the USA and North Korea, how can it possibly be bad to sell commercial airlines to Iran? It could only lead to better relations and a little dollop of friendship and peace in the Middle East. It is a vindictive and foolish policy.

Iran Air should have paid Airbus some deposit or Advance so they could have taken some more A330's and A321.

Slash787 wrote:

Iran Air should have paid Airbus some deposit or Advance so they could have taken some more A330's and A321.

Iran Air is not flushed with cash to pay for all these planes, and Airbus already has their near future production slots filled for other orders. Iran air has struggled to get financing and the planes that they have currently received from Airbus were all planes previously built for Avianca/Oceanair but ntu and therefore just hanging around looking for a customer. That is a very limited supply.

Here's a link to the same story

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehme ... 96228.html

Ten years from now, possibly sooner, this where they Chinese/Russian wide body consortium steps in and fills the embargo gaps. I'm also wondering if Iran itself won't have a commercial aircraft company up and running within a ten year stretch.

N14AZ wrote:

As the title says, Airbus does not believe it will be able to deliver additional aircraft to Iran due to the expected sanctions.
Source, just in German language: https://www.abendblatt.de/hamburg/artic ... haeft.html

Best regards
N14AZ

Iran should have bought the 747-8i they would have had immediate delivery of some new aircraft

Both parties knew the risks involved that could derail this deal. Emotionally some might be flustered, but from a business transaction, on to the next one.

idlewild wrote:

Ten years from now, possibly sooner, this where they Chinese/Russian wide body consortium steps in and fills the embargo gaps. I'm also wondering if Iran itself won't have a commercial aircraft company up and running within a ten year stretch.

US/Canada/EU/Brazil, those are the only nations on Earth that are currently manufacturing (can manufacture) commercial airplanes of any substance. Iran could have been buying Russian jets forever if that was the answer. It would be far easier for Iran to meet the demands to remove the sanctions vs developing a commercial jet that is viable.

jimatkins wrote:

Interesting that Boeing seemed to be big backers of the administration, and now they are totally in the cold. I don't think it's possible to build a modern jetliner with zero US content, even the Sukhoi has some US parts, I seem to have heard. Not sure about that part. Anybody know if Russia can build an airliner with no US content?

I think it's hard to build any plane these days without parts coming from the US, Canada, UK, Germany, Japan or France etc etc.

Pretty sad

idlewild wrote:

Ten years from now, possibly sooner, this where they Chinese/Russian wide body consortium steps in and fills the embargo gaps. I'm also wondering if Iran itself won't have a commercial aircraft company up and running within a ten year stretch.

And the total available global market for widebody sales to countries affected by a U.S. embargo on aircraft sales and sensitive equipment is what, 50 to 100 aircraft? Iran would be the bulk of that; Cuba, Syria, and North Korea don't need more than a few each, if any. Spread that over a lifespan of 20 years for a widebody and you're talking about 4 or 5 aircraft per year, at most. That's not enough to make or break a Russian/Chinese widebody program, and they'd have issues producing an economically viable product, even for their home markets, without U.S. content.

You seem to seriously underestimate the cost & complexity of bootstrapping a commercial aircraft program; the ARJ-21 will have taken nearly 20 years to enter mass production, if it ever does (and that's with the advantage of recycling a McDonnell-Douglas fuselage design) while the C919 will likely end up taking close to 15 years from program launch to first delivery. The Chinese will gradually learn through those programs, and they will have the help of some Russian expertise, but it will still likely be decades before there's a threat to Airbus & Boeing outside captive market sales. That WILL eventually happen, but sales to Iran ultimately won't be material to that outcome.

idlewild wrote:

Ten years from now, possibly sooner, this where they Chinese/Russian wide body consortium steps in and fills the embargo gaps. I'm also wondering if Iran itself won't have a commercial aircraft company up and running within a ten year stretch.

I don't have a crystal ball but I'd be willing to bet A LOT that Iran will not have a commercial aircraft company up and running within 10 years. There are much more stable and economically strong middle Eastern countries that are in amuch better position to start one and they are not chomping at the bit to do it.

Polot wrote:

Slash787 wrote:

Iran Air should have paid Airbus some deposit or Advance so they could have taken some more A330's and A321.

Iran Air is not flushed with cash to pay for all these planes, and Airbus already has their near future production slots filled for other orders. Iran air has struggled to get financing and the planes that they have currently received from Airbus were all planes previously built for Avianca/Oceanair but ntu and therefore just hanging around looking for a customer. That is a very limited supply.

A degree of chicken and egg. Can only obtain unconditional EXIM finance against firm order and balance of funding unconditional. In situations like this, someone has to have the balls to go unconditional first, and then the others complete the circle. Funding was available, but at big margins.

Are they still allowed to get planes from a 3rd party with a specific number of years on it?

...and people were asking in the other thread why the CR929 project must avoid US sourced components at all costs.

This is why.

Keep the thread on topic, and keep politics out of the thread to the extent possible. This is the Civil Aviation Forum, and the goal is to discuss civil aviation. Discussion on the US/Iranian relationship unrelated to aviation belongs in the Non Aviation Forum.

✈️ atcsundevil

It was to be expected. And whatever talk there was by the EU to force companies to disregard the US sanctions, I don't buy that. To me, that's just cheap populism that will lead them nowhere and won't ever happen. Do they really want to risk an economic crisis if companies like e.g. PSA, Airbus, etc. are forced to disregard the sanctions, making them directly subject to US sanctions themselves and thus impeding the export of US parts to them? It would be an economic nightmare those "policymakers" in Brussels have to be aware of, especially the part about that nightmare leading to layoffs.

DL757NYC wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

As the title says, Airbus does not believe it will be able to deliver additional aircraft to Iran due to the expected sanctions.
Source, just in German language: https://www.abendblatt.de/hamburg/artic ... haeft.html

Best regards
N14AZ

Iran should have bought the 747-8i they would have had immediate delivery of some new aircraft

Problem is the 747-8i is far too large a plane for Iran Air. The A330 is about the ideal size, as would be the B787-9 or the A350-900.

LTU932 wrote:

Do they really want to risk an economic crisis if companies like e.g. PSA

Does PSA even use any American parts? It only has Opel/Vauxhall from the former GM brands and the rest of the PSA lineup doesn't get sold to the USA anyway (they would be unlikely to be popular anyway).

jimatkins wrote:

Anybody know if Russia can build an airliner with no US content?

Of course Russia can, it has done it before. But even so, would someone like Iran Air want to buy a Russian plane?

I cannot help but think that this (the bullying application of US sanctions) is a hugely short sighted policy that will ultimately harm both the US aviation industry and international relations. It most certainly ignores the bigger picture and there are other ways of imposing your view that do not leave a bad taste in the mouth without having to resort to "do what we say or lose our market". This approach loses sight of who your allies and your enemies really are. Add to that the "we are big enough to support our own aviation industry" view and this short-sightedness is exacerbated.

You can be sure that every single future component on Airbus aircraft that is sourced solely from the US will have additional scrutiny applied to its sourcing. To me the policy just comes across as supreme arrogance and, as they say, perception is reality.

Perhaps airbus should focus on building a widebody aircraft that actually sells first.

So the A330 and A350 don't sell? What world do you live in?

Airbus could do it if they eliminated all the USA content. But at What cost?? If they run afoul of the Trump Administration?
They might not be building, NOR Selling airplanes in the USA. And that could include all the Lakotas sold to the Army.

Virtual737 wrote:

I cannot help but think that this (the bullying application of US sanctions) is a hugely short sighted policy that will ultimately harm both the US aviation industry and international relations. It most certainly ignores the bigger picture and there are other ways of imposing your view that do not leave a bad taste in the mouth without having to resort to "do what we say or lose our market". This approach loses sight of who your allies and your enemies really are. Add to that the "we are big enough to support our own aviation industry" view and this short-sightedness is exacerbated.

You can be sure that every single future component on Airbus aircraft that is sourced solely from the US will have additional scrutiny applied to its sourcing. To me the policy just comes across as supreme arrogance and, as they say, perception is reality.

Your looking at it a strictly aviation related sanctions. It really has nothing to do with airplanes.
I'll keep the politics out of it - google and read what the sanctions are really about.

Slash787 wrote:

Are they still allowed to get planes from a 3rd party with a specific number of years on it?

I don't think they ever were but that didn't stop them from picking up a bunch of LH's retired, ancient A300s with a shell company.

DL757NYC wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

As the title says, Airbus does not believe it will be able to deliver additional aircraft to Iran due to the expected sanctions.
Source, just in German language: https://www.abendblatt.de/hamburg/artic ... haeft.html

Best regards
N14AZ

Iran should have bought the 747-8i they would have had immediate delivery of some new aircraft

Sad but true

I want to ask two questions, and I don't want it to trigger a huge Airbus vs Boeing debate. They are two simple questions regarding the corresponding airframe orders...

The Iranian Boeing Orders... they were never recorded as firmed orders on the Boeing Orders and Deliveries page correct?
The Iranian Airbus Orders.... were they ever reported as firm orders? Will Airbus have to report cancellations for the remaining undelivered frames?

Ok, so there were three questions, same request applies, please don't let it devolve into an US VS THEM debate...

777PHX wrote:

Slash787 wrote:

Are they still allowed to get planes from a 3rd party with a specific number of years on it?

I don't think they ever were but that didn't stop them from picking up a bunch of LH's retired, ancient A300s with a shell company.

From what I know, they were, but it had to be from a 3rd party and it had to be a specific number of years old.

ODwyerPW wrote:

I want to ask two questions, and I don't want it to trigger a huge Airbus vs Boeing debate. They are two simple questions regarding the corresponding airframe orders...

The Iranian Boeing Orders... they were never recorded as firmed orders on the Boeing Orders and Deliveries page correct?
The Iranian Airbus Orders.... were they ever reported as firm orders? Will Airbus have to report cancellations for the remaining undelivered frames?

Ok, so there were three questions, same request applies, please don't let it devolve into an US VS THEM debate...

Boeing never firmed them, unless they were unidentified.

The Airbus orders were firm, if they will never be delivered they will have to be cancelled at some point. I think that Airbus will want to keep them on the books as long as possible. The sanctions can be lifted again, with the orders on the books Airbus could act quickly then. But in the mean time the new IFRS 15 Accounting Standards (ASC 606 for the U.S.) that came in effect this year might play a role, they might have to cancel them because of these new rules.

7673mech wrote:

Your looking at it a strictly aviation related sanctions. It really has nothing to do with airplanes.
I'll keep the politics out of it - google and read what the sanctions are really about.

Actually I'm only writing about it from an aviation perspective because that's what this forum is for and the mods have continually asked that it is kept aviation related. I'm looking at it from a much broader perspective. If it really had nothing to do with airplanes then Airbus would not have been in the position to have to make a choice.

However your reply did remind me of a point I should also have made. Many people seem to assume that being anti the "my way or the highway" directives spewing from the US must mean that you are an Iranian sympathiser when in fact it just means that you resent your "allies" forcing their policies on you because they can't be arsed to lobby / presuade or even just damn well ask politely. It leaves a bad taste in the mouth, it breeds contempt and in the long run it will bite you in the arse.

Airbus had zero choice in making this decision.

ODwyerPW wrote:

I want to ask two questions, and I don't want it to trigger a huge Airbus vs Boeing debate. They are two simple questions regarding the corresponding airframe orders...

The Iranian Boeing Orders... they were never recorded as firmed orders on the Boeing Orders and Deliveries page correct?
The Iranian Airbus Orders.... were they ever reported as firm orders? Will Airbus have to report cancellations for the remaining undelivered frames?

Ok, so there were three questions, same request applies, please don't let it devolve into an US VS THEM debate...

IIRC it was the difference that decided the 2016 "Orders Race".

AB declared the orders & so won the "Orders Race".

BA never listed their Orders, and so lost the "Race".

cheers

Europe needs to work towards the day when they have a ‘self-contained’ aircraft industry, free from the need to use components from the USA or any other country that can hold it to ransom. The European aviation industry has already proven that it has the knowledge and the ability to produce superb and innovative airliners which have enabled it to secure a large proportion of the market but now it is important to consolidate component production within the EU so that no other state has the ability to control where European aircraft can be sold.

Same can be said for Boeing, Boeing should also only USA parts and not use any from Japan or EU so as to ensure something like that wouldn't affect Boeing in the future.

stratocruiser wrote:

Europe needs to work towards the day when they have a ‘self-contained’ aircraft industry, free from the need to use components from the USA or any other country that can hold it to ransom. The European aviation industry has already proven that it has the knowledge and the ability to produce superb and innovative airliners which have enabled it to secure a large proportion of the market

So are you by default saying that they chose to use others versus their own to get their current position in the market, and if true, does that really mean that they have the knowledge and ability?

idlewild wrote:

Ten years from now, possibly sooner, this where they Chinese/Russian wide body consortium steps in and fills the embargo gaps. I'm also wondering if Iran itself won't have a commercial aircraft company up and running within a ten year stretch.

Except those are even made up of a lot of US made parts, avionics, engines, etc.

A US Supreme Court case decision in 1936 involving a USA based maker of aircraft and aircraft engines then allows the US President overriding authority as to applying sanctions on USA companies that export products that cannot be shipped to national governments we don't want getting them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... xport_Corp. That decision gave the President the exclusive power, even over Congress, as to all foreign policy. That is the basis of the application of USA sanctions as to aircraft sales to Iran today.

It is politically popular in the USA to have harsh sanctions on Iran as some are still seeking revenge for the taking of and holding our diplomat-citizens and families as hostages in 1978-1980 and it is well founded that Iran was using aircraft to transport weapons to support groups that were at war against Israel or others we support.

The real danger of the embargo on the sales of commercial aircraft with any USA content to Iran, that while politically popular here puts - and has put - persons in grave danger. The lack of USA content systems caused in part the USA Navy shoot down of an Iran Air A300 over the Persian Gulf killing all 200 or so aboard many years ago. If any Iran based aircraft operate, they may be using bootleg or other sourced or made parts that do not meet specifications, also putting flyers and crews at risk. It also means not getting for the USA or Europe $1B+ in new and near future sales of aircraft, lost revenue and profits for Airbus, Boeing, supplier companies, millions in person-hours in paychecks lost too.

And then there are people wonder why Iran wasn't willing to pay for deposit...

cpd wrote:

LTU932 wrote:

Do they really want to risk an economic crisis if companies like e.g. PSA

Does PSA even use any American parts? It only has Opel/Vauxhall from the former GM brands and the rest of the PSA lineup doesn't get sold to the USA anyway (they would be unlikely to be popular anyway).

They probably do, we don't know, but that's not the point. The point is, if a major company (and I used PSA and Airbus as an example) was to get sanctioned by the US and they are heavily dependent on US parts, it endangers jobs and can cause some kind of economic crisis. And down in Europe, the last thing you need is an economic crisis like 10 years ago, which is why all that talk about forcing European companies to disregard the US sanctions are complete populistic BS coming from people in Brussels, as well as people in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, who are already salty about the EU as a whole not being part of the US Visa Waiver Programme (so much that they were even demanding to impose visas on US cititzens for business and private travel, which also ain't gonna happen as long as VWP is around).

ltbewr wrote:

It is politically popular in the USA to have harsh sanctions on Iran as some are still seeking revenge for the taking of and holding our diplomat-citizens and families as hostages in 1978-1980 and it is well founded that Iran was using aircraft to transport weapons to support groups that were at war against Israel or others we support.

Iran is also a state sponsor of terrorism. A lot of the components that went into those IEDs that were blowing up our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan were sourced directly from Iran.

777PHX wrote:

ltbewr wrote:

It is politically popular in the USA to have harsh sanctions on Iran as some are still seeking revenge for the taking of and holding our diplomat-citizens and families as hostages in 1978-1980 and it is well founded that Iran was using aircraft to transport weapons to support groups that were at war against Israel or others we support.

Iran is also a state sponsor of terrorism. A lot of the components that went into those IEDs that were blowing up our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan were sourced directly from Iran.

If we want to get into who sponsors what we could be here for a while, and sanctions would be flying all over the place.

jimatkins wrote:

Anybody know if Russia can build an airliner with no US content?

As far as narrowbodies are concerned, one of the versions of Tu-204 family, the one with original PS-90A engines (vs. PS-90A1 and later series -- these have P&W content) qualifies. The family seems to be in wind-down mode, to be replaced with MC-21.
On the widebody side, Il-96 is free from US content. But they are built at a rate of less than one airplane per year these days, and seemingly only for Russian government/military.


Otherwise, Ukraine, on the regional side, could also offer An-148 and An-158, free from US content.

777PHX wrote:

ltbewr wrote:

It is politically popular in the USA to have harsh sanctions on Iran as some are still seeking revenge for the taking of and holding our diplomat-citizens and families as hostages in 1978-1980 and it is well founded that Iran was using aircraft to transport weapons to support groups that were at war against Israel or others we support.

Iran is also a state sponsor of terrorism. A lot of the components that went into those IEDs that were blowing up our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan were sourced directly from Iran.

So in the same token would you suggest the former USSR hold sanctions again the US for supporting terrorist groups against the USSR in Afghanistan during the Communist government and USSR intervention?

IED is literally improvised, it's not a factory created weapon that is produced and exported by Iran. In fact majority of the groups in Iraq were/are totally opposed to Iran.

brindabella wrote:

ODwyerPW wrote:

I want to ask two questions, and I don't want it to trigger a huge Airbus vs Boeing debate. They are two simple questions regarding the corresponding airframe orders...

The Iranian Boeing Orders... they were never recorded as firmed orders on the Boeing Orders and Deliveries page correct?
The Iranian Airbus Orders.... were they ever reported as firm orders? Will Airbus have to report cancellations for the remaining undelivered frames?

Ok, so there were three questions, same request applies, please don't let it devolve into an US VS THEM debate...

IIRC it was the difference that decided the 2016 "Orders Race".

AB declared the orders & so won the "Orders Race".

BA never listed their Orders, and so lost the "Race".

cheers

That's true, but Airbus also delivered 3 out of the 100 planes on order. I'm not sure if you can avoid booking an order as firm if you've already delivered the aircraft, and I'm sure Airbus had every intention of delivering the rest of the order if this fiasco hadn't popped up. Historically, Airbus has been more willing to accept orders from "risky" carriers, like jetBlue, or Cebu Pacific, or IndiGo. Look where all of them are now. Of course that comes with the possibility of those orders getting delivered, like in Kingfisher's or Skymark's case. However, I'm certain Airbus booked those orders as firm, because they were firm. Iran Air had every intention of taking them, and Airbus has every intention of delivering them.

To phrase the question in a different way, why didn't Boeing book the orders as firm and start delivering to Iran? Historically, Boeing has been hesitant to sign with sketchy carriers, and it has lost market share in various parts of the world because of that. Note that I'm not trying to start an A vs. B war. A reasonable debate, sure? In any case, I was super excited when the initial dealings suggested orders for 747-8i's and A380s, but none of that came to fruition.

I don't get why Airbus hasn't tried putting out contracts in the EU for euro - alternatives to components they get from the US. Not just because of Iran, but also because of the uncertainty unfolding in global relations.

Jouhou wrote:

I don't get why Airbus hasn't tried putting out contracts in the EU for euro - alternatives to components they get from the US. Not just because of Iran, but also because of the uncertainty unfolding in global relations.

I don't think that would set well with the current administration in D.C. They might give Airbus in Mobile some grief. Things are very complicated, and seem to change quickly.