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BawliBooch
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:49 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
If I have to bet, 2019 India elections will be won on building Rama temple and stopping women from entering Ayyappa temple. One would retain UP vicinity and the other issue may flip Kerala in BJP favor. Both are risky moves but will do anything for a seat.


With the "development" excuse failing, the BJP is going back to the Ram Temple issue to polarise Hindus vs Muslims. It works in North India.

I dont see the Ayyapa temple issue working honestly. The polarising politics works in the north but the people in South are wired differently. India is getting polarised not just on Dalit-Hindu-Muslim but also on the North-South axis. The Southern half of India is more developed, more educated, more prosperous and many South Indian's have legitimate grievances against us for "holding them back". This divide has become much sharper in the past 4 years. The CM's of the Southern states have started banding together. The regional parties in the South have also started coming together. NCP (Maharashtra), Naidu(Andhra) and JDS(Karnataka) have all signed up to the grand alliance being stitched up by Rahul Gandhi. That's a good 180 seats in all from the South itself. That is enough to kick Modi and his Gujarat Mafia out of power.

The sweep in the recent Karnataka bypolls where the INC+JDS fought together shows what happens when the opposition vote is united. The BJP can only win when the opposition vote is divided by parties like AAP and the rest. We have to closely watch the developments in the cowbelt states now. Rajasthan and MP are widely expected to slip out of the BJP's grasp but it is too early to call it either ways. My state will have elections only in 2019 and I hope to see Khattar gone. But Ram temple issue could be the kicker here. It does polarize people in our part of the country.
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unrave
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:37 am

It is always cute when non residents discuss Indian politics with an air of superiority.
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
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MassAppeal
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:56 am

unrave wrote:
It is always cute when non residents discuss Indian politics with an air of superiority.


Boy you should see what its like to live in America. Everyone around the world is an expert on our politics and social policy from the top down!
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:46 am

unrave wrote:
It is always cute when non residents discuss Indian politics with an air of superiority.


After covering 2 General Elections and a dozen state elections apart from political tamasha's like "Operation Kamal" in Karnataka, I think I know a little bit about Indian politics. Plus I studied in the JNU - you know that "anti-national" institute? :P

Living abroad certainly gives us an outsiders perspective - We are looking in from the outside. It gives me the ability to look at things objectively. For eg, earlier I was outright opposed to the BJP. But now I think a non-Modi option in the BJP might be a workable option. What is important is the respect for Babasaheb Ambedkar's constitution and the institutions that have kept India from becoming a failed state like some of our neighbors.

I hear from my sources that Supreme Leader is being given the marching orders by the RSS. The RSS choice for the top job is Nitin Gadkari but for now Yogi Adityanath is positioning himself for the top job and seems to be leading the race. I will be ok with Nitin Gadkari - his record in building infra is unmatched. I am personally rooting for Sushma Swaraj and not just because she is from my state. I think she has what it takes to be Prime Minister and India desperately needs a Prime Minister who can take everyone along instead of the divisive rhetoric and hate politics we have seen in the past 4 years.

If push comes to shove, Modi wont stay back either. He just does not have the ability to sit in opposition or in the Advisory Council of Elders like Advani. Plus he has made too many enemies across the political spectrum. Modi and his wingman have been planning ahead for this day - they have made substantial investments in an African country with a large Gujarati expat population and I am sure he can flee there for safety.

Going forward, A lot rides on who wins the race within the BJP. I don't think the Gujarati Mafia will let go of power that easily but at this point they are fighting a loosing battle. If Yogi wins the race for PM then all is lost! Within months, I expect Chandrababu Naidu to lead the southern states out of the Indian confederation. If OTOH, Nitin Gadkari or Sushma Swaraj become the PM, then this certain disaster can be avoided.

PS: I am getting back to twitter after a long hiatus of 4+ years. Do follow. :)
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BawliBooch
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:26 am

We should be closely watching the Assembly Elections in 4 states this month - Telengana, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan. The last 3 in particular are key. Together they contribute about 65 Lok Sabha seats and the party that wins the state elections could have an advantage in the General Elections a year from now. All 3 have BJP govt's in the state now and all are fighting anti-incumbency - made worse by the Central Govt's ill-considered moves like GST and demonetization that have destroyed livelihoods across the cowbelt.

If the opposition Congress wins state elections in these 3 states, the battle for 2019 just gets thrown wide open. The Congress, which is negotiating for allies for a Grand Coalition against the BJP will go into the negotiations with a stronger hand to play. The economically more developed Southern States + Odisha have already banded together in an anti-BJP coalition with 150 LS seats in the kitty. IMO, This is more of a anti-Modi rather than anti-BJP coalition. If Modi looses the power struggle and the Congress wins these 3 states, this southern coalition will turn into an anti-Congress coalition IF the BJP opts for someone like Swaraj or Gadkari to replace Modi. If BJP goes with Yogi however, the Grand Coalition with Congress in charge is certain to take shape.

MP and Rajasthan are battles for the Congress to loose. Empress Vasundhara is deeply unpopular in Rajasthan even with her own party cadre and the Congress's Sachin Pilot has made an impact. Cong has an "informal" understanding with the BSP in the state. How much of this translates into votes remains to be seen. But this battle is theirs to lose. Similarly in MP, Shivraj chouhan is deeply unpopular after 15 years in power in the Central Indian state. But the Congress is a divided house with 2 CM candidates fighting their own battles. But again, this is their battle to lose especially since the Upper Caste's in the state seem to have shifted towards the Congress.

Chattisgarh will be the interesting battle to watch. Raman Singh is a wily fox. While the congress seems to have the numbers to topple him, the presence of Ajit Jogi as a third pole can change the numbers game. With Ajit Jogi playing spoiler by cutting opposition votes, BJP can hope to get the majority in the state assembly again. Will be watching Chattisgarh closely on Dec 11!
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unrave
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:22 am

BawliBooch wrote:
I hear from my sources that Supreme Leader is being given the marching orders by the RSS.

Given that none of what you claim to have learnt from "your sources" has turned out to be true, we'll believe it when it actually happens
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:40 pm

unrave wrote:
Given that none of what you claim to have learnt from "your sources" has turned out to be true, we'll believe it when it actually happens


The last time I refered to "my sources", i had spoken about how French media will be at the forefront of breaking the Rafale Scam. mediapart.fr did do that - with a 2 month delay in my timeline. And the best is yet to come! :)

You are free to believe what you want to. :P
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:10 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
...
If push comes to shove, Modi wont stay back either. He just does not have the ability to sit in opposition or in the Advisory Council of Elders like Advani. Plus he has made too many enemies across the political spectrum. Modi and his wingman have been planning ahead for this day - they have made substantial investments in an African country with a large Gujarati expat population and I am sure he can flee there for safety....


Or he may negotiate with Xi/Abe/Putin to annex Gujarat, him as the province leader. Well developed, much advanced than any other Indian state.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:14 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Or he may negotiate with Xi/Abe/Putin to annex Gujarat, him as the province leader. Well developed, much advanced than any other Indian state.


Ha ha ha! Gujarat? Advanced? Sarcasm? :)
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:19 am

BawliBooch wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Or he may negotiate with Xi/Abe/Putin to annex Gujarat, him as the province leader. Well developed, much advanced than any other Indian state.


Ha ha ha! Gujarat? Advanced? Sarcasm? :)


Putin annexed Crimea for $3B. China and Japan probably loaned Gujarat at least $25Billion each. If the rest of India doesn't want to repay Gujarati debt, the best option is...
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Is India a failing democracy

Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:55 am

dtw2hyd wrote:

Putin annexed Crimea for $3B. China and Japan probably loaned Gujarat at least $25Billion each. If the rest of India doesn't want to repay Gujarati debt, the best option is...


Didnt think of that angle! That could very well happen! :(

Sad! Never could have imagined that one day India would go the way of the former Soviet Union! The country we were born in, that we were so proud of... there one day and gone the next! And we could do nothing to stop it? :(
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