https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/worl ... e=Homepage

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/busi ... -jet-sales

So what happens to the jets Airbus has already delivered ?

alberchico wrote:

So what happens to the jets Airbus has already delivered ?

Why would anything happen to them? They were legally exported to Iran.

#SoMuchWinning

We will know at 10pm CET if Trump makes this momentum mistake or not.

Macron is Trumps BFF in Europe?

Dutchy wrote:

We will know at 10pm CET if Trump makes this momentum mistake or not.

Macron is Trumps BFF in Europe?

Franco is dead and Russia isn't really part of Europe, so who else?

But Mr. Trump made clear that his patience with the deal had worn thin, and with a new, more hawkish set of advisers — led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the national security adviser, John R. Bolton —

LOL..combine those...
MICHAEL BOLTON

727LOVER wrote:

But Mr. Trump made clear that his patience with the deal had worn thin, and with a new, more hawkish set of advisers — led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the national security adviser, John R. Bolton —

LOL..combine those...
MICHAEL BOLTON

Luckily you can find humor in this tragedy which will make the world more unsafe.

Dutchy wrote:

727LOVER wrote:

But Mr. Trump made clear that his patience with the deal had worn thin, and with a new, more hawkish set of advisers — led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the national security adviser, John R. Bolton —

LOL..combine those...
MICHAEL BOLTON

Luckily you can find humor in this tragedy which will make the world more unsafe.

Actually, if the Iranians are smart they can come out of this way ahead, issue a statement along the lines of "Even though the US has decided to withdraw from the agreement we made, we will abide by the agreement with the other signatories and we hope that in the future the US decides to rejoin the rest of the world".

Instead of it being Iran v the world if they also withdraw, it turns into the US v the world........

jetwet1 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

727LOVER wrote:

But Mr. Trump made clear that his patience with the deal had worn thin, and with a new, more hawkish set of advisers — led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the national security adviser, John R. Bolton —

LOL..combine those...
MICHAEL BOLTON

Luckily you can find humor in this tragedy which will make the world more unsafe.

Actually, if the Iranians are smart they can come out of this way ahead, issue a statement along the lines of "Even though the US has decided to withdraw from the agreement we made, we will abide by the agreement with the other signatories and we hope that in the future the US decides to rejoin the rest of the world".

Instead of it being Iran v the world if they also withdraw, it turns into the US v the world........

I agree, and that scenario is not beyond the realm of possibilities and would actually be a great strategic move by Iran.

I agree too. It is difficult to comprehend this, other than to say that the administration includes some very pro-Israel people, who are more focused on Israel's interests than America's. I would like very much to ask John Bolton to say how he believes that withdrawing from this deal enhances US security in any way. Withdrawing from the deal is a wholly irresponsible move. It hands a big psychological victory to hardliners in Iran and is a big slap in the face to moderates who expended so much time and energy selling this deal.

It is difficult to know where to start as to how it affects America's security, but let's leave that aside and focus on its credibility. As if moving America's embassy to Jerusalem were not enough of a retrograde step, this move shows America as being a country that withdraws from international agreements into which it enters freely. Even if a new deal could be done which addresses Israel's (sorry, America's) concerns, who would want to go into an agreement with America now? And what about the other parties to do the deal, who have also put a huge amount of effort into it and negotiated over a lengthy period with the Iranians? Yes, making them look stupid is a great way to win friends and influence people.

But let's look at this from the angle that counts: America's interests, that the President is supposed to be protecting. How are these enhanced? It just beggars belief that such a landmark deal could be abandoned like this. It's short-sighted, because any future Middle East agreement needs to involve Iran; you can't just treat a country of 80m with a "stick & stick" approach, as the current administration wants to. This deal would have been the first step into letting Iran back into the world economic system, being able to trade freely. And that in itself makes Iran far less of a threat; it has far too much to lose. This deal would have started the process that brings to a close a long standing enmity. Now, is there any way that it can end, and how does America benefit from keeping it going, let alone worsening it.

So tragic, so stupid, so Trump.

And it is a done deal, America is out, again separating itself from the rest of the world.

https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/5257013/tr ... -iran.html

This will make America / Trump administration less relevant.

sbworcs wrote:

Looks like he has done it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44045957

So now - less planes sold, less jobs, less taxes raised, increased welfare. Good move - NOT

That is American-centric way to think about it. Possibly more instability if Iran walks away too.

Looks like he has done it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44045957

So now - less planes sold, less jobs, less taxes raised, increased welfare. Good move - NOT

Ugh...

That's all I have to say.

Which country will sign any agreements with USA again?

Agreements signed by the current Trump administration can they be cancelled in 4-8 years when he leaves office?

olle wrote:

Which country will sign any agreements with USA again?

Agreements signed by the current Trump administration can they be cancelled in 4-8 years when he leaves office?

There haven't been many signed by this administration; it goes out of more agreements than it gets into. Just a question that someone in the US (or more familiar with past US administrations) might know: how many international agreements has the US pulled out of, before this administration? Sure, there have been a few it has not entered into at all, but I can't recall if it has withdrawn from many major agreements, involving multiple parties.

Quite apart from ME stability and the chances for a long term peace (both of which are damaged by this, there is a concern for the primacy of the dollar in international trade. What is the primacy of the dollar based on? It's not just the size of the US economy, but the reliability of the US and its trustworthiness. Now, can this be said of a country which behave as this administration does - throwing its weight around, without any concerns or care about the effect on those with which it has entered into agreements? Does it not see that behaving like this undermines US interests? Does it not see that other countries would like their currencies to enjoy the same primacy as the dollar does - China, or the EU, perhaps?

Now, what could China do to take advantage of this situation? It takes a lot of oil from Iran and we know that with sanctions, there are payment and currency issues. What would happen if China contacted all parties to the Iran deal and offered to take the place of the US as a party to the deal? Would the others agree - why not? Would Israel object? Possibly, but to little or no effect, and it probably would not want to annoy China - definitely not by attacking Iran. America would jump up and down and probably impose more sanctions on Iran, but "it had its chance and blew it". Iran would be able to trade using RMBs and the Chinese banking systems and would not want to upset China either, by welching on the deal. Win all around (except for America, of course).

olle wrote:

Which country will sign any agreements with USA again?

Agreements signed by the current Trump administration can they be cancelled in 4-8 years when he leaves office?

America can't be trusted with international treaties anymore. We are going to end up a shithole 3rd world country thanks to ignorant buffoons who can't see a con artist who basically rubs it in their face.

So the oil price will go up while Iran production go off market if not;

China go in as investor and purchase major part of Iran oil production

EU says enough is enough we continue allowing oil production from Iran.

I think USA do not realize how fast EU companies has started activities in Iran including french Total. Will they back out?

Yes, but I think there will be high level contacts and Europe will not allow the US to impose sanctions on EU companies, since they are benefiting from an agreement which still exists and is legal. If the US does impose sanctions, the EU can respond like-for-like. It may very soon dawn on the administration that it cannot act as it wishes without serious consequences. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out; expect EU and others to have more shuttle diplomacy with Tehran than with Washington ...

The perfect summary of the situation:

"
What's too complicated for Trump to understand is that Iran is not a monolith of "bad guys." The current president Hassan Rouhani is a moderate elected by the Iranian people on a promise of getting economic sanctions lifted in exchange for curtailing Iran's nuclear program. His political opponents are hardliners who want to trash the nuclear agreement as much as Trump does so they can build a nuclear arsenal.

Trump has politically weakened Rouhani and strengthened the position of hardliners, who will now say that Rouhani was a fool to trust America. And the US may well be faced with the alternatives of either having to live with a nuclear-armed Iran, or war."

Looks like Europe is not going to follow Trump.

Trump is probably going to face the music as NK will walk away from their deal making as it becomes apparent that the US doesn't stand by agreements.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 42126.html

First of all there is no deal in place, it is just a Honey To-Do List.

I am sure there will be a real agreement in near future, hopefully congress ratifies it.

LittleFokker wrote:

olle wrote:

Which country will sign any agreements with USA again?

Agreements signed by the current Trump administration can they be cancelled in 4-8 years when he leaves office?

America can't be trusted with international treaties anymore. We are going to end up a shithole 3rd world country thanks to ignorant buffoons who can't see a con artist who basically rubs it in their face.

There is no agreement that the US signed without having fully planned how to subvert it.
Only Trump is much more in your face in ditching promises left and right.
i.e. what we see is a change in tone and not in intentions.

dtw2hyd wrote:

First of all there is no deal in place, it is just a Honey To-Do List.

I am sure there will be a real agreement in near future, hopefully congress ratifies it.

Just like the Paris accords. No real deal just promises and IOU's.

Required reading for the simpletons on here:

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show ... her-builds

windy95 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

First of all there is no deal in place, it is just a Honey To-Do List.

I am sure there will be a real agreement in near future, hopefully congress ratifies it.

Just like the Paris accords. No real deal just promises and IOU's.

Not true, a very clear path: maximum of 2 degrees warming and strive to 1,5 degrees. Obama signed, Trump put his finger up to the world.

With the Iran deal: real deal with real verifiable promises --> Iran delivered on all of them. Trump put his finger up to the world.

It solely seems like this move is just the US loudly announcing that they’re leaving the party as they walk out the door.

Every other signatory to the agreement will remain in the deal. Iran will continue to not make nuclear weapons, as it always has. They’ll simply trade with Europe, Russia and China. The only losers will be Americans through the loss of trade deals and jobs.

Any attempt by the US to reimpose sanctions unilaterally will fail, and they’ll really be put in the cold in the international community with this one.

One thing I heard about this was that the administration will punish those dealing with Iran under the deal. The United States will sanction countries doing business with Iran. Great. We have no manufacturing jobs and, now, those things manufactured overseas and imported are being threatened. Such winning.

scbriml wrote:

alberchico wrote:

So what happens to the jets Airbus has already delivered ?

Why would anything happen to them? They were legally exported to Iran.

#SoMuchWinning

Trump ordered them to built with an in-built disable code so he can disable them from the Oval office, didn't you know that...

I don't understand what Europe, Russia, and China are worried about. Remember the good old days. Sell goods and services to Iran at a high markup. Better than competing in the open market. Banks and accounting firms already know how to launder.

Parts in aircraft boneyards have high value now. It is the Iranian public who suffer and flight crews have to land planes without wheels/landing gears.

Haven't this been Drumpf's Modus Operandi?

1. Leave an agreement, citing that it's "unfair"
2. Negotiate, negotiate
3. Get nothing, whine on Twitter
4. Backtrack

We'll see whether other countries (especially Europe) bend over as usual. The only winner in all this BS is Israel and Saudi Arabia anyway.

seb146 wrote:

One thing I heard about this was that the administration will punish those dealing with Iran under the deal. The United States will sanction countries doing business with Iran. Great. We have no manufacturing jobs and, now, those things manufactured overseas and imported are being threatened. Such winning.

What about countries that are still in the deal? Can they still do business with Iran? Will Trump sanction Germany, Britain, and France??

Leaving the agreement means nothing if he does not follow up with actions against Iran. And this means also sanctions against any party that trades with Iran.

dragon-wings wrote:

seb146 wrote:

One thing I heard about this was that the administration will punish those dealing with Iran under the deal. The United States will sanction countries doing business with Iran. Great. We have no manufacturing jobs and, now, those things manufactured overseas and imported are being threatened. Such winning.

What about countries that are still in the deal? Can they still do business with Iran? Will Trump sanction Germany, Britain, and France??

No, he will not sanction those countries. What he can do, and America has done in the past including imposing hefty fines, is go after companies whom also trade with the US, have an office there or use goods made in the US and then do deals with Iran.

Mir wrote:

But Donald doesn't care. Donald just wants to feed his ego and feel powerful.

Superficially Trump seems to give to his voters what they expect and what he promised to get their vote.
... and damn the consequences.

Under the hood this is probably a lot more complicated.
Just watching his rather strained "uninspired actor" public appearances says he is the front
for powers "leading from behind". ( In contrast Reagan at least was a tier 2 actor and not an untalented amateur.)
There are probably 3 or 4 factions acting ( while sidelining the sovereign, i.e. the voting public ).

alberchico wrote:

So what happens to the jets Airbus has already delivered ?

They will be supported and new once will be delivered. If the US government tries to penalize Airbus for it, the EU will slap tariffs on Boeing Aircraft and put regulations in the books, again since they already did so with Cuba sanctions, making it illegal for companies to comply with US law in this regard.

Best regards
Thomas

I'm interested in the chatter around US Treasuries.

What effect does this have on the sale of bonds abroad? Trump seems to behave as he did in Atlantic City; walking out of deals he made when the numbers don't suit him. Will his withdrawal from treaties, promises and IOUs then overshadow the security of bonds issued to support his tax cuts?

Printing money domestically to cover the bills will just cause hyperinflation. Nobody wants a Trump-style haircut on their securities (sorry) so will outsiders now start demanding higher returns on US Treasuries to cover the Risk Of Trump?

This is what happens when Congress fails to do its job and vote on these deals like they should. If it were ratified or voted down we wouldn't be in this situation.

The Republicans said they would do this from day one- they even notified Iran and all the signatories they would cancel the deal as soon as they could. Here we are.

2122M wrote:

With no deal, Iran gets nukes within a coupe of years and is a global outcast with a bone to pick. With the deal Iran maybe gets nukes in 15-20 years at which point they are integrated socially and economically with the rest of the world

Slight technical correction.
Without the deal Iran could have had nukes years ago. They had enough weapons grade uranium to build 8 to 10 weapons. Getting that is the hard part. Slapping together a gun type uranium nuke can be done in weeks, implosion designs are also no magic, Iran does make hollow charges after all. Making nukes safe, reliable, fit for long term storage and efficient in terms of bang per fuel, that is expensive, but no problem if you don't care about those things.
With the deal It would take 13 years. 12 years until the 15 years are up, and one to go from 3.67% enriched to weapons grade.

Best regards
Thomas

Yep, Trump was a huge fan of the Iraq war too!

Nuclear weapons, long-range missiles? North Korea --> good

No nuclear weapons, IAEA verified, no long-range missiles? Iran --> Bad

Can anyone explain that to me like I were a four year old?

Oh a nasty side effect: oil prices are rising because of Trump getting out of the Iran deal. I am sure all those Trump fans will thank Trump of this.

CCGPV wrote:

This is what happens when Congress fails to do its job and vote on these deals like they should. If it were ratified or voted down we wouldn't be in this situation.

The Republicans said they would do this from day one- they even notified Iran and all the signatories they would cancel the deal as soon as they could. Here we are.

This happened because Obama failed to make a treaty and present it to congress and instead made it a executive order. This is the result of his governing with his pen and phone. Treaties cannot be overturned by a later administration while executive orders can.

"In December 2007 presidential candidate Barack Obama told The Boston Globe that if he won the 2008 election, he would enter the White House committed to rolling back the sort of overreaching executive power that had characterized the presidency of George W. Bush. "The President is not above the law," Obama insisted."

Aesma wrote:

So will Trump make a treaty with NK ?

Sure he will, if Kim praising him over and over again he will give away anything.

WIederling wrote:

Mir wrote:

for powers "leading from behind". ( In contrast Reagan at least was a tier 2 actor and not an untalented amateur.)

He also had practice as the Governor of California for eight years which had an economy larger than almost any other nation on Earth.

Dutchy wrote:

Nuclear weapons, long-range missiles? North Korea --> good

No nuclear weapons, IAEA verified, no long-range missiles? Iran --> Bad

Can anyone explain that to me like I were a four year old?

The best way to get the US to deal with you is to get a nuclear weapon. A message I'm sure Iran is hearing loud and clear.

Saudia Arabia has said they'll seek a nuclear weapon if Iran does, thus setting off a Middle East nuclear arms race. The US policy on that, according to Sarah Sanders: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And now Israel and Iran are trading missile strikes in Syria

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/0 ... an-forces/

Yeah, great idea, tRump.....

Mir wrote:

Saudia Arabia has said they'll seek a nuclear weapon if Iran does, thus setting off a Middle East nuclear arms race. The US policy on that, according to Sarah Sanders: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Middle East nuclear arms race?

That is going since Israel (silently) acquired nukes. ( and us dumb Germans provide(d) the launch platforms via the gifted subs)
1966 onwards: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_w ... and_Israel.

Every other effort in the region is reactive. Keep up with the Joneses.