With positive news coming out from the recent meetings between the top leaders of both Koreas, it might just be possible to witness the reunification of the North and South within our lifetimes.
If so, what would the civil aviation picture be like in a unified Korea?

Well I hope they don't fight over a bag of nuts.....

Don't be fooled. Nothing will change. The Kim Dynasty will not go anywhere, they can't afford to step down. They would go straight to jail for life, or worse. This is just to gain time and some concessions from the world, try to get some sanctions eased. No reunification is imminent, nor is it desirable by anyone. After having visited North Korea more than 10 times since my first visit in 1989, I can safely say that the only way to get the Kims to change (stop murdering people, putting them away in concentration camps, not even taking about introducing any resemblance of democracy) is to either starve them out (sanctions) or bomb them out (war). Anything else is fruitless fiction, unfortunately.

flyingdoc787 wrote:

If so, what would the civil aviation picture be like in a unified Korea?

Same as Germany. Look at what happened to Interflug and Lufthansa following the German re-unification.

(But it won't happen, surely not in our lifetime. No way can South Korea afford to unite with a country so big and poor with such inferior education level).

I honestly don't see much changing but if it magically does I doubt we will see any great opening up of North Korea for the average citizen. That's the only way the power structure stays in control. We saw what happened with Germany- openness and democracy always wins and spells disaster for the oppressive side.

That said I can see some token service between the two countries like we saw with Taiwan and China back in the day. Every little bit of exposure helps. Chip chip chip away....

Lets have another look in 9-12 months and see where we are.

I wonder whether limited charter and/or seasonal flights from South Korea might develop, alongside tourism, if North Korea wants more revenue? For starters, a GMP - FNJ flight might be a go, not only for South Korean tourists (if they ever become allowed to visit FNJ), but also for foreigners who traditionally used PEK, but would prefer to transit via South Korea, without the need for a Chinese visa. Further, as Kim said yesterday, the roads from the DMZ to FNJ are poor, so flying would be better.



Cheers,

C.

MalevTU134 wrote:

Anything else is fruitless fiction, unfortunately.

I don't agree with that, although it's not easy. However, if somehow the North Korean people would start opposing the Kim dinasty, it could all be over before you know it. This is actually their biggest fear, a revolution from within the country. That's why the country is so isolated and any information from outside is securely shielded off from the people. They've done everything they could to prevent that revolution, and without a doubt anyone who ever tried to start one ended up in prison or worse. Still it would be the best chance I think.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Anything else is fruitless fiction, unfortunately.

I don't agree with that, although it's not easy. However, if somehow the North Korean people would start opposing the Kim dinasty, it could all be over before you know it. This is actually their biggest fear, a revolution from within the country. That's why the country is so isolated and any information from outside is securely shielded off from the people. They've done everything they could to prevent that revolution, and without a doubt anyone who ever tried to start one ended up in prison or worse. Still it would be the best chance I think.

Go to North Korea, have a look for yourself (if you can get outside Pyongyang, against all odds, the better), and then tell me that there is even a drop of a chance of an uprising, as you suggest. North Korea is not your normal dictatorship. I was in Ceauşescu's Romania in 1988 and 89, and I can tell you that that was liberty itself compared to North Korea. As long as the Kims can keep the military happy with "luxury" apartments, cars and decent food (hence why the sanctions could work), there is no chance of a rebellion by the people. 0%

MalevTU134 wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Anything else is fruitless fiction, unfortunately.

I don't agree with that, although it's not easy. However, if somehow the North Korean people would start opposing the Kim dinasty, it could all be over before you know it. This is actually their biggest fear, a revolution from within the country. That's why the country is so isolated and any information from outside is securely shielded off from the people. They've done everything they could to prevent that revolution, and without a doubt anyone who ever tried to start one ended up in prison or worse. Still it would be the best chance I think.

Go to North Korea, have a look for yourself (if you can get outside Pyongyang, against all odds, the better), and then tell me that there is even a drop of a chance of an uprising, as you suggest. North Korea is not your normal dictatorship. I was in Ceauşescu's Romania in 1988 and 89, and I can tell you that that was liberty itself compared to North Korea. As long as the Kims can keep the military happy with "luxury" apartments, cars and decent food (hence why the sanctions could work), there is no chance of a rebellion by the people. 0%

I would tend to believe this. The people of North Korea have nothing. China controls what you can and cant see on the internet. In North Korea, I don't even think the general population has access to the internet. To remain on topic, if and its a very big IF, South Korea, the US and China can all get together with the North and figure out a way to all get along, would the North just funnel traffic through ICN or would North Korea start building up its own international airport and start flights on their own? If they did start non stop international flights out of North Korea, other than China and South Korea, where else would they be allowed to fly to?

I bet we would see a very large Boeing order if they eventually are given the OK to buy planes.

MalevTU134 wrote:

Go to North Korea, have a look for yourself (if you can get outside Pyongyang, against all odds, the better), and then tell me that there is even a drop of a chance of an uprising, as you suggest. North Korea is not your normal dictatorship. I was in Ceauşescu's Romania in 1988 and 89, and I can tell you that that was liberty itself compared to North Korea. As long as the Kims can keep the military happy with "luxury" apartments, cars and decent food (hence why the sanctions could work), there is no chance of a rebellion by the people. 0%

Still I recently heard a theory that could possibly work, it's called the money bomb. Basically America or South Korea would print fake North Korean money and drop it in North Korea. The North Koreans who find it would think it was real money and start using it. They wouldn't work for it anymore, why work if the money is free? This would bring North Korea to it's knees since nothing is being done anymore. It would also completely devaluate any North Korean money since there is too much of it, and devaluation is something the North Koreans aren't used to. Of course it would piss off the leaders, but what can they do? I bet even their most loyal servants can't resist free money.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Go to North Korea, have a look for yourself (if you can get outside Pyongyang, against all odds, the better), and then tell me that there is even a drop of a chance of an uprising, as you suggest. North Korea is not your normal dictatorship. I was in Ceauşescu's Romania in 1988 and 89, and I can tell you that that was liberty itself compared to North Korea. As long as the Kims can keep the military happy with "luxury" apartments, cars and decent food (hence why the sanctions could work), there is no chance of a rebellion by the people. 0%

Still I recently heard a theory that could possibly work, it's called the money bomb. Basically America or South Korea would print fake North Korean money and drop it in North Korea. The North Koreans who find it would think it was real money and start using it. They wouldn't work for it anymore, why work if the money is free? This would bring North Korea to it's knees since nothing is being done anymore. It would also completely devaluate any North Korean money since there is too much of it, and devaluation is something the North Koreans aren't used to. Of course it would piss off the leaders, but what can they do? I bet even their most loyal servants can't resist free money.

Would you want to sit in that airplane above North Korea, moneybombing them? NK air defences would just sit back and count the money falling from the sky? And how much could you possibly bomb them with? And all over the country? Just laughable. Irrealistic. Could sound good on paper, but unrealistic. And nothing would change. People would not starve neither more nor less even if prices rocket.

jumbojet wrote:

I bet we would see a very large Boeing order if they eventually are given the OK to buy planes.

What? Air Koryo has a tiny fleet of passenger aircraft and the average North Korean can't afford to fly anywhere. What would they use a "very large" fleet of Boeings for?

jumbojet wrote:

I bet we would see a very large Boeing order if they eventually are given the OK to buy planes.

LOL! That's just unrealistic. That country is unable to sustain itself in its very basic functions, I don't think airliner order is of any priority (even if there were funds available).
Anything NK would need to handle beyond current volume of passengers and participants in ethically doubious tourism can and would be taken care of by Chinese and/or South Korean airlines.