mham001
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:48 pm

BHXLOVER wrote:

Because China is the manufacturing powerhouse of the world, whether we like it or not.


And for that reason, we need to acquiesce to their demands for our IP? I don't think so.
 
mham001
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:56 pm

2122M wrote:
At the root of it though, you are correct. It is cheaper for US companies to manufacture their goods outside of the US and re-import them for sale. Hence, the trade deficit. This is because US consumers are not willing or able to take manufacturing jobs at $1.00 / hr nor are they willing to pay a 300% premium on goods to be manufactured here in the US.


This is really no longer true. Including productivity levels, labor costs are similar.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:04 pm

mham001 wrote:
LJ wrote:
Then who would buy those US treasuries (and essentially fund the US government)?


What led you to believe that only China buys US bonds? This argument is vastly overstated and glaringly short on sourced numbers.


Overstated by who? Short on Government sourced numbers for instance? :hyper:

Treasury.gov:
http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ite_note-9
As of December 2017, $6.3 trillion or approximately 45% of the debt held by the public was owned by foreign investors, the largest of which were Japan (about $1.06 trillion) and China (about $1.18 trillion)


Same info reflected in media:

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to- ... wn-3306355
The U.S. debt to China is $1.17 trillion as of January 2018. That's 19 percent of the $6.26 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $21 trillion national debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself.


The government buying its own bond with its own fresh money from the printer? Recipe for disaster.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... w-much.asp
By mid-2017, the total amount of official debt owed by the federal, state and local governments was more than $19.4 trillion. That figure is expected to reach at least $20.2 trillion by the start of 2018. Some experts add more than $120 trillion in unfunded future liabilities on the federal government balance sheet.
Last edited by Jayafe on Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
2122M
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:06 pm

mham001 wrote:
2122M wrote:
At the root of it though, you are correct. It is cheaper for US companies to manufacture their goods outside of the US and re-import them for sale. Hence, the trade deficit. This is because US consumers are not willing or able to take manufacturing jobs at $1.00 / hr nor are they willing to pay a 300% premium on goods to be manufactured here in the US.


This is really no longer true. Including productivity levels, labor costs are similar.


I'd love to see a source backing up that statement, because I just can't imagine that a huge and successful company like Apple (as just one of many many many examples) would continue risk IP theft, pay international shipping costs deal with Chinese ownership laws if it was just as cheap to manufacture here in the US.
 
mham001
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:11 pm

Jayafe wrote:
mham001 wrote:
LJ wrote:
Then who would buy those US treasuries (and essentially fund the US government)?


What led you to believe that only China buys US bonds? This argument is vastly overstated and glaringly short on sourced numbers.


Overstated by who? Short on Government sourced numbers for instance? :hyper:

Treasury.gov:
http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ite_note-9
As of December 2017, $6.3 trillion or approximately 45% of the debt held by the public was owned by foreign investors, the largest of which were Japan (about $1.06 trillion) and China (about $1.18 trillion)


Same info reflected in media:

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to- ... wn-3306355
The U.S. debt to China is $1.17 trillion as of January 2018. That's 19 percent of the $6.26 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $21 trillion national debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself.


The government buying its own bond with its own fresh money from the printer? Recipe for disaster.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... w-much.asp
By mid-2017, the total amount of official debt owed by the federal, state and local governments was more than $19.4 trillion. That figure is expected to reach at least $20.2 trillion by the start of 2018. Some experts add more than $120 trillion in unfunded future liabilities on the federal government balance sheet.


You made my point in the first paragraph. China buys a fraction of US bonds available. If they stop or slow, somebody else will buy them, probbaly at higher interest rates but they will be sold.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:19 pm

mham001 wrote:
You made my point in the first paragraph. China buys a fraction of US bonds available. If they stop or slow, somebody else will buy them, probbaly at higher interest rates but they will be sold.


Now take a moment to think what will happen with the price of new US bonds (which are permanently required to pay current bills) if China suddenly drops $1.18 trillion in the market with a...20%? discount. Exactly, new bonds will be worth it peanuts for years until all that volume finds a buyer able to digest it. And meanwhile all new bonds released by the US asking for full price will be at the end of the queue, or entering a fight to see who sell bonds cheaper. 0.1 cents on the dollar after a few years? It's not China who needs the income to avoid closing the country. Think about it, but slowly.

But Mr Trump can always switch the notes printer again and buy his own debt with his own brand new auto-depreciated money. What could go wrong?
 
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Tugger
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:30 pm

Jayafe wrote:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080615/china-owns-us-debt-how-much.asp
By mid-2017, the total amount of official debt owed by the federal, state and local governments was more than $19.4 trillion. That figure is expected to reach at least $20.2 trillion by the start of 2018. Some experts add more than $120 trillion in unfunded future liabilities on the federal government balance sheet.

The EU and many nations have similar future debt problems. Whether "on the books" or not the problem is mostly pension and healthcare obligations that require a continuing inflow of current cash in order to pay for supporting retirees and beneficiaries etc. Even nations that don't provide such things can't really just let people die in the streets and still maintain their status..That is when you become a failed state.

As of 2014, total global debt rose to $199 trillion. It grew $57 trillion in just the previous seven years. That’s about $8 trillion a year.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldi ... eat-reset/

Its a big problem everywhere.

As to China selling off all of its US debt... it can't. Really, it can't, it needs buyers and if they dump all of it they will drive the price down so far that the buyers own investments will be decimated and their ability to purchase will be severely impacted. And if they did that the global economy would also be affected which would affect China's exports.... and on and on...etc.
This is a good thing as it tends to force nations to work together.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
 
mham001
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:33 pm

2122M wrote:
mham001 wrote:
2122M wrote:
At the root of it though, you are correct. It is cheaper for US companies to manufacture their goods outside of the US and re-import them for sale. Hence, the trade deficit. This is because US consumers are not willing or able to take manufacturing jobs at $1.00 / hr nor are they willing to pay a 300% premium on goods to be manufactured here in the US.


This is really no longer true. Including productivity levels, labor costs are similar.


I'd love to see a source backing up that statement, because I just can't imagine that a huge and successful company like Apple (as just one of many many many examples) would continue risk IP theft, pay international shipping costs deal with Chinese ownership laws if it was just as cheap to manufacture here in the US.


Iphones are "assembled" in China. Cost of the foreign sourced components themselves would rise but actual labor cost increases are minimal, China's productivity is about 1/5 of the US. "Assembling phones domestically would cost $30 to $40 per phone, versus $10 for the current Chinese work, " http://fortune.com/2016/06/09/all-ameri ... -100-more/

Labor costs around the world are no longer the factor, shipping and transportation are key, more so with automation. I can go to the housewares department in Walmart and find US sourced products for a small percentage more than Made in China on many items, side by side.
 
mham001
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:36 pm

Jayafe wrote:
mham001 wrote:
You made my point in the first paragraph. China buys a fraction of US bonds available. If they stop or slow, somebody else will buy them, probbaly at higher interest rates but they will be sold.


Now take a moment to think what will happen with the price of new US bonds (which are permanently required to pay current bills) if China suddenly drops $1.18 trillion in the market with a...20%? discount. Exactly, new bonds will be worth it peanuts for years until all that volume finds a buyer able to digest it. And meanwhile all new bonds released by the US asking for full price will be at the end of the queue, or entering a fight to see who sell bonds cheaper. 0.1 cents on the dollar after a few years? It's not China who needs the income to avoid closing the country. Think about it, but slowly.

But Mr Trump can always switch the notes printer again and buy his own debt with his own brand new auto-depreciated money. What could go wrong?


Have you ever heard the saying, "If you owe the bank $1MM, they own you. If you owe the bank $100MM, you own the bank."? It applies here.
 
2122M
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:55 pm

mham001 wrote:
2122M wrote:
mham001 wrote:

This is really no longer true. Including productivity levels, labor costs are similar.


I'd love to see a source backing up that statement, because I just can't imagine that a huge and successful company like Apple (as just one of many many many examples) would continue risk IP theft, pay international shipping costs deal with Chinese ownership laws if it was just as cheap to manufacture here in the US.


Iphones are "assembled" in China. Cost of the foreign sourced components themselves would rise but actual labor cost increases are minimal, China's productivity is about 1/5 of the US. "Assembling phones domestically would cost $30 to $40 per phone, versus $10 for the current Chinese work, " http://fortune.com/2016/06/09/all-ameri ... -100-more/

Labor costs around the world are no longer the factor, shipping and transportation are key, more so with automation. I can go to the housewares department in Walmart and find US sourced products for a small percentage more than Made in China on many items, side by side.


Your own source calls that a crude estimate and warns against taking it to heart. For that one article estimating a mere $100 increase in price, there are multiple articles estimating much higher costs. And I cant' verify your Walmart reference, all I can tell you is that the CEOs and boards of major US corporations know more about this than you and me and the rest of this message board combined. If it was as economical to build here in the US, then they would be doing just that. Even if it was close they would probably do it just for the political capital. As it is, you need cities and states to offer huge tax breaks and subsidies for most high volume manufacturers to even consider building here.
 
mham001
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:15 pm

2122M wrote:

Your own source calls that a crude estimate and warns against taking it to heart. For that one article estimating a mere $100 increase in price, there are multiple articles estimating much higher costs. And I cant' verify your Walmart reference, all I can tell you is that the CEOs and boards of major US corporations know more about this than you and me and the rest of this message board combined. If it was as economical to build here in the US, then they would be doing just that. Even if it was close they would probably do it just for the political capital. As it is, you need cities and states to offer huge tax breaks and subsidies for most high volume manufacturers to even consider building here.


Please read carefully, the other articles you see are sourcing ALL parts from the US. Currently, Iphones assembled in China are sourced from many countries.

And yes indeed, the transportation issue is real. I am not in the News business but if you were to google "Chinese labor costs", you might see why this is true. Additionally, if you were to google 'foxconn wisconsin', you would see one result....
 
2122M
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:42 pm

mham001 wrote:
2122M wrote:

Your own source calls that a crude estimate and warns against taking it to heart. For that one article estimating a mere $100 increase in price, there are multiple articles estimating much higher costs. And I cant' verify your Walmart reference, all I can tell you is that the CEOs and boards of major US corporations know more about this than you and me and the rest of this message board combined. If it was as economical to build here in the US, then they would be doing just that. Even if it was close they would probably do it just for the political capital. As it is, you need cities and states to offer huge tax breaks and subsidies for most high volume manufacturers to even consider building here.


Please read carefully, the other articles you see are sourcing ALL parts from the US. Currently, Iphones assembled in China are sourced from many countries.

And yes indeed, the transportation issue is real. I am not in the News business but if you were to google "Chinese labor costs", you might see why this is true. Additionally, if you were to google 'foxconn wisconsin', you would see one result....


Foxconn is being granted $3-4 Billion in tax breaks and subsidies from the state of Wisconsin to build there. That's Billion. with a 'B'. And the cost of iPhones won't go down one penny because of it.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:54 pm

Mortyman wrote:
WarRI1 wrote:
Airbus prices stay the same. More business for Airbus in general and Airbus´s China branches even more.

One has to wonder when Airbus will be slapped with a tariff by the US, why would we allow Airbus to screw us over. Are not our best friends and allies France, Britain and Germany being protected by the US might?


Oh come on ! What childish bs ! Grow up wil you


I guess you would have to ask tRump , you do not know, I do not know, none of the bullshitters on here know. I simply posed a question and used a for certain fact. We all know how well Norway did against Germany in WW2. I have to wonder who has kept the peace with money and soldiers since then against Russia ? Just asking Sonny?
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
c933103
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:48 am

PPVRA wrote:
Out of curiosity, what was the previous import tariff in place in China on business aircraft like the affected Gulfstream model? Anyone know?

Embraer built a plant in China to get around Chinese imposed trade barriers several years ago.

5%. (3% for larger aircraft). Note that the 25% seems to be on top of the amount of tax they originally have to pay.
 
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kasimir
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:59 am

Lets see what the teacher from Ferris Buellers Day Off can teach us :idea:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA
 
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casinterest
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:59 am

Trump has now escalated a further tariff of 100 billion dollars of goods.

Going to get ugly fast.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 
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LockheedBBD
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:15 am

casinterest wrote:
Trump has now escalated a further tariff of 100 billion dollars of goods.

Going to get ugly fast.


What's China going to do next? Full blockade of Boeing products?

I'm sure Embraer and Bombardier (they can make up for lost sales from the US tariff threat) would love to sell many planes to China if the Airbus backlog is too long :wave: Of course, Chinese airlines would have to content operating smaller aircraft, and it most likely won't be feasible. Too bad China still hasn't gotten the C919 fully functioning yet, and the larger CR929 is only in its preliminary planning stage. The Irkut MC-21 could also be a good option for Chinese airlines, and it seems like it will be a great aircraft as well.


As much as China would probably like to block Boeing completely right now, they are held captive since they don't have any alternatives. It would also be very risky because the U.S. could prevent the export of aviation equipment to China.
 
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LockheedBBD
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:44 am

tphuang wrote:
I'd be surprised to see any domestic airlines in China announce any big boeing orders for the next few months at least. Especially wide body orders.



In my opinion, it is more likely that China doesn't announce any new Boeing narrowbody orders in the next few months. There are plenty of upcoming and available narrowbodies, COMAC C919, COMAC ARJ-21, Irkut MC-21, Embraer E2-195, Bombardier CS300, and of course Airbus A319/A320/A321.

In terms of widebodies, there are very few choices, the COMAC CR929 is only in planning stages, then there's Boeing and Airbus.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:35 am

casinterest wrote:
Trump has now escalated a further tariff of 100 billion dollars of goods.

Going to get ugly fast.



He is proposing
 
tommy1808
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:40 am

mham001 wrote:
Redd wrote:

It'll get ugly and for the USA more so than for China. China can get anything it needs elsewhere while taking a small hit on exports. China is the USA's biggest market when it comes to luxury goods and technology.


Oh nonsense. Any tit for tat is going to hit China harder because $60 Billion (for example) in China goes a hell of a lot further than $60 Billion in the US. Beyond these tit for tats, China has a $566 Billion/year advantage to lose.


Oh nonsense, giving stuff to the US for free isn´t to the Advantage of China, it is to the advantage of the US consumer.

LJ wrote:
Then who would buy those US treasuries (and essentially fund the US government)?


What led you to believe that only China buys US bonds? This argument is vastly overstated and glaringly short on sourced numbers.


In order to buy US treasury bonds as a foreign entity you need trade deficits with the US, otherwise you don´t have US$ to buy them. Unless you want to finance your budget yourself, you can only shift trade deficits around, you can not make them go away. Trumps tax cuts should increase the trade deficit, and surprise, that is exactly what we see.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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Aesma
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:15 am

2122M wrote:
mham001 wrote:
2122M wrote:

Your own source calls that a crude estimate and warns against taking it to heart. For that one article estimating a mere $100 increase in price, there are multiple articles estimating much higher costs. And I cant' verify your Walmart reference, all I can tell you is that the CEOs and boards of major US corporations know more about this than you and me and the rest of this message board combined. If it was as economical to build here in the US, then they would be doing just that. Even if it was close they would probably do it just for the political capital. As it is, you need cities and states to offer huge tax breaks and subsidies for most high volume manufacturers to even consider building here.


Please read carefully, the other articles you see are sourcing ALL parts from the US. Currently, Iphones assembled in China are sourced from many countries.

And yes indeed, the transportation issue is real. I am not in the News business but if you were to google "Chinese labor costs", you might see why this is true. Additionally, if you were to google 'foxconn wisconsin', you would see one result....


Foxconn is being granted $3-4 Billion in tax breaks and subsidies from the state of Wisconsin to build there. That's Billion. with a 'B'. And the cost of iPhones won't go down one penny because of it.


The cost of building iPhones is almost irrelevant, Apple takes a gigantic margin on them anyway.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Waterbomber
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:29 am

Aesma wrote:
2122M wrote:
mham001 wrote:

Please read carefully, the other articles you see are sourcing ALL parts from the US. Currently, Iphones assembled in China are sourced from many countries.

And yes indeed, the transportation issue is real. I am not in the News business but if you were to google "Chinese labor costs", you might see why this is true. Additionally, if you were to google 'foxconn wisconsin', you would see one result....


Foxconn is being granted $3-4 Billion in tax breaks and subsidies from the state of Wisconsin to build there. That's Billion. with a 'B'. And the cost of iPhones won't go down one penny because of it.


The cost of building iPhones is almost irrelevant, Apple takes a gigantic margin on them anyway.


Yes and this is a reason why Apple should build it in the U.S.
Even if that cost is 200$ for a 600$ unit, having that 200$ stay within the borders makes more sense. Where do you think that Huawei and co are getting their production expertise from? Apple is funding the creation of a competitor.

Many people here talking about bonds and debt without looking at the sourrce of it all. The only reason why the U.S. is running an increasing debt load is because of the trade deficit.
Instead of doing the cooking and cleaning yourself, you hire a Chinese cook and a Mexican maid. It's less effort for you, but instead of doing that work youself, you are going to have to pay thoose people to do the work. Once you run out of money, you then have to burrow through a bank to pay the cook and the maid. Eventually, the cook and the maid will be the ones lending you the money because they're the ones lending it to you through the intermediary of banks.
When talking about debt, money represents work and nothing else. When you borrow to buy a house, you are borrowing for a package of works that result in your house. Unless you work to repay that debt, the debt stays there.

However, if your name is Uncle Sam, you have one more way out. You can print the money using your special printer and pay for the cook and the maid's work. The cook and the maid's bank accounts grow in size, but your debt doesn't increase. This is what the U.S. does trough defense spending. Helicopter money into the defense, trickle down to American workers, who then spend it on Chinese goods.

However, if instead of staying home doing nothing while printing bills and burrowing from the bank who burrows from the cook and the maid, you decide to do your own cooking and washing, you don't need to lend from the bank and you can start repaying the bank with the bills that you print using your special printer.

Trump's strategy works in that it is geared to reduce the national debt. Do it long enough and you become a wealthy country like Norway.
Everybody is working and everybody has spending power.

I'm not an American, but Trump is completely right.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:14 pm

I sincerely doubt the US can manufacture any electronics, not because of the cost, but the availability of rare earth materials and the intention to mine and use locally. At best US can assemble kits shipped from China.

One thing Trump can do to really hurt rich Chinese is to stop them having babies in California.

Maybe, Boeing will give some respect to US carriers??? Maybe.
 
Flyglobal
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:52 pm

So Trump will identify 100b of more Valuable goods, China will identify 100b as well and so on. Of course Trump can identify more (he said I It's easy'). I have no doubt that China will extend it the entire Boeing lineup if they run out of value.
So be it. I feel sorry for Boeing. But probably someone from Boeing gets told: Boeing, you better stop your president, or you look Forward to poor sales. Other companies will do the same.

I for myself will buy more Popcorn this Weekend to be prepared, probably from US grown corn.

Flyglobal
 
tommy1808
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:29 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
Yes and this is a reason why Apple should build it in the U.S.


If an US build iPhone costs 5 USD more to make, reasonable assumption, and the average US consumer is willing to pay 4 USD more for that "made in the US", then Apple has no reason to make it in the US.
Especially so if chinese customers then buy less, it us the 2nd biggest iPhone market after all.

Even if that cost is 200$ for a 600$ unit, having that 200$ stay within the borders makes more sense.


For Apple?
An iPhone X has ~370 USD BOM cost, say 400 including assembly, test, packaging and shipping.

Where do you think that Huawei and co are getting their production expertise from? Apple is funding the creation of a competitor.


Nonsense, to figure out whats in an iPhone they can just buy some. Apple doesn't have manufacturing expertise beyond quality control and knowing what can and can't be build at reasonable costs. All the machinery to actually make them are sourced from the open market by their EMS partners via tender.
Much of the tech inside an iphone is sourced in, much of the know how is Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese, with some European (ARM architecture, accelerometer, Mixed-signal chips, gyroscopes).

The iPhone is a truly global product.

Many people here talking about bonds and debt without looking at the sourrce of it all. The only reason why the U.S. is running an increasing debt load is because of the trade deficit.


There is pretty much no correlation between anual trade and budget deficit. The US runs a deficit because they spend more money than they tax. Theydo so because "this district gets more government money than it pays in taxes" is well liked as a statement when campaigning.
Their share of government spending from the GDP is higer than Switzerlands, but they levy less in taxes than they do.

Instead of doing the cooking and cleaning yourself, you hire a Chinese cook and a Mexican maid. It's less effort for you, but instead of doing that work youself, you are going to have to pay thoose people to do the work. Once you run out of money, you then have to burrow through a bank to pay the cook and the maid. Eventually, the cook and the maid will be the ones lending you the money because they're the ones lending it to you through the intermediary of banks.


Yup, only that you also own the bank and that money only has value in your shops.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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Aesma
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:04 pm

I've heard an economist say that long term protectionnism would hurt the economy to the tune of 5-6%, so not that big. However the trick is the short term. Short term some industries are getting a boost, while others are decimated. It causes large transfers of value (and jobs).

My analysis is that this would be manageable for people with transferable skills or good ability to train for new jobs (assuming that training is offered). For other people, many of whom are Trump supporters, it could be very ugly.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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casinterest
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:11 pm

Mortyman wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Trump has now escalated a further tariff of 100 billion dollars of goods.

Going to get ugly fast.



He is proposing


He is destroying the dollar, and creating added expenses for all Americans.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 
PPVRA
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:50 pm

c933103 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Out of curiosity, what was the previous import tariff in place in China on business aircraft like the affected Gulfstream model? Anyone know?

Embraer built a plant in China to get around Chinese imposed trade barriers several years ago.

5%. (3% for larger aircraft). Note that the 25% seems to be on top of the amount of tax they originally have to pay.


Are you sure? I’m not sure embraer would have built a plant in China over a 5% tariff.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
PPVRA
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:16 pm

Embraer faced a 22.9% import tariff on ERJ-145 aircraft in the early 2000s, according to a research paper I found. They even build 4 ERJs that were never delivered to China because of the tariffs.

Now, that’s a while ago. Not sure what the current status is. But 22.9% is very high, cost prohibitive and obviously very protectionist.
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Varsity1
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:02 am

casinterest wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Trump has now escalated a further tariff of 100 billion dollars of goods.

Going to get ugly fast.



He is proposing


He is destroying the dollar, and creating added expenses for all Americans.


The American economy is booming to the point it is damn near overheating. Consumers can afford the expense, it might even help get inflation off the floor, which has been stagnate for far too long.

We can afford to not buy crap from China, they don't produce anything that we can't buy somewhere else. The next country up will happily take their place; India, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil.. you name it.
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Varsity1
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:03 am

PPVRA wrote:
Embraer faced a 22.9% import tariff on ERJ-145 aircraft in the early 2000s, according to a research paper I found. They even build 4 ERJs that were never delivered to China because of the tariffs.

Now, that’s a while ago. Not sure what the current status is. But 22.9% is very high, cost prohibitive and obviously very protectionist.


China is protectionist as hell. The country operates from the top down like it's wartime 24/7/365. The world would be wise to wake up and not sell out to them.
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casinterest
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:49 am

Varsity1 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Mortyman wrote:


He is proposing


He is destroying the dollar, and creating added expenses for all Americans.


The American economy is booming to the point it is damn near overheating. Consumers can afford the expense, it might even help get inflation off the floor, which has been stagnate for far too long.

We can afford to not buy crap from China, they don't produce anything that we can't buy somewhere else. The next country up will happily take their place; India, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil.. you name it.


What we don't buy from China, they can sell elsewhere. At the end of the day, what China produces, we have to improve upon.

Does anyone realize that within the next 10 years China will have most of the tallest buildings in the world?
Does anyone realize that China has high speed rail?
Does anyone realize that China is well on it's way to producing it's own planes?


Our Children will need to speak Mandarin and Cantonese, because soon we will be producing for them.


Apple manufactures a phone for 200-300 dollars in China that they are able to sell for 700-1000 in the US. There is money in services and the supply chain, and Trump is going to destroy that value to save jobs that belong to robots.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 
raylee67
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:27 am

Currently, it only affects Boeing planes that Chinese airlines aren't really buying. This part of the overall tariff package is just posturing, just like in US's list of Chinese products, there are grenade launchers and Chinese made aircraft engines in that list. Since when does US military buying grenade launchers from China? And someone in US is buying aircraft engines from China? Those are added to make the list look bigger than it is, to make it look more threatening. However, if the tit-for-tat does not stop, they will both run out of these types of items to add to the list. And the list will start to include "real" things. Imagine a 25% tax by US on smartphones. Or a 25% tax by China on 787. When there are no more grenade launchers and 737-700 left to add to the list, these real things will start to get in. And the more toxic the environment gets, the more difficult it is to negotiate.

And oh, one trade news get buried by the China-US tit-for-tat. Korea announced on Friday on a $460 million tariffs on a selected list of US goods to retaliate on US's tariffs on Korean solar panel and washing machines.

Bobloblaw wrote:
Why should China be allowed to run $200b trade surpluses with the USA continuously?


This is a funny question. First, the amount of the surplus is up for debate. For example, an iPhone exported from China to US has a value of $500. But it contains $300 of components made in Japan or Korea or Taiwan. Currently, all $500 goes into the amount of export from China to US and count into trade deficit between US and China. In fact, it should be a trade deficit of $200 with China, and $300 with Taiwan, Japan and Korea. Note that the numbers here are made up and is only used for illustration of how trade numbers are calculated.

Second, no one points a gun to the heads of Americans and force them to buy things made in China. The deficit is here because they keep buying things that are made in China. The consumers stop buying things that are made in China, the deficit goes away. Is it possible? For most goods, yes, it is. I spend my time between Canada and Hong Kong, and I always avoid things made in China as much as possible, because I don't trust the quality of their products. It's a subjective thing. But I am willing to take the time and spend more (a lot more) to find equivalent items made in Japan or Korea or US or EU, etc. And I could be paying 3 or 4 times more. I go to Japan 4 times a year to buy things that are made in Japan. I typically go to Japan with a check-in luggage that only weighs 6kg and often leave Japan with 26kg. So yea, Americans, if you don't want deficits, you definitely have a choice. Just prepare to pay for it. Don't whine about the deficit if you are not willing to pay a few times more for the same items that are made in US. You made your manufacturing jobs go away, no one else caused that. The same goes for US's deficit with Mexico and Japan, etc. If Americans are willing to pay $100000 for a Ford Focus, why would Ford move the factory to Mexico?

Lastly, trade deficits do not include services and income from investments in the other country. e.g. Starbucks are earning a ton of profits in China with growth of 1000+ stored per year. And yes, those stores are not franchise, they are 100% directly owned by Starbucks USA. China also accounts for 15% of Apple's sales. And then there are all the expensive investment banking services provided to Chinese firms by the like of Morgan Stanley or Goldman. Those profits by US companies are not included in the calculation of trade deficits.

if the tit-for-tat continues, and when China runs out of US imports that they can target to put tariffs on for retaliation, I would not be surprised those will be on the firing line.

The problem of US is not trade deficits. It's the uneven distribution of wealth. The corporations are earning record profit partly because they get to import cheap from China, but the profit is not shared with those who lost their jobs because of that. It's Ford and GM and Apple who move manufacturing or sourcing outside of US. They are part of the source of trade deficits with China or Mexico or Vietnam. It's more effective to go after the profit they made from that shift of sourcing.
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raylee67
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:35 am

PPVRA wrote:
Embraer faced a 22.9% import tariff on ERJ-145 aircraft in the early 2000s, according to a research paper I found. They even build 4 ERJs that were never delivered to China because of the tariffs.

Now, that’s a while ago. Not sure what the current status is. But 22.9% is very high, cost prohibitive and obviously very protectionist.

The definition of protectionist is that the country is putting a trade restrictions (e.g. tariffs, quotas, etc.) to protect domestic industry making the same products. As far as I know, there is no Chinese made ERJ145 competitor in the market in the early 2000s. China cannot be protectionist in this example when there is no one in China to protect. Even now, there is no 50-seat RJ made in China, except for the licensed built ERJ145 made by Harbin.

China puts the tariffs there as a tactic to get Brazil to agree to let China build the ERJ145 themselves. China doesn't mind paying, but it wants to pay to gain the manufacturing know-how, instead of just the end product. It's a clever tactic, and it's a tactic that only China can employ, because its market is so large that no one wants to be shut out of it.

I think India is learning from this as well now. India is the only other country that can do the same. And it's adding provisions to foreign investments or government procurement that the know-how needs to be transferred to India.
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Aesma
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:51 pm

raylee67 wrote:
The problem of US is not trade deficits. It's the uneven distribution of wealth. The corporations are earning record profit partly because they get to import cheap from China, but the profit is not shared with those who lost their jobs because of that. It's Ford and GM and Apple who move manufacturing or sourcing outside of US. They are part of the source of trade deficits with China or Mexico or Vietnam. It's more effective to go after the profit they made from that shift of sourcing.


That same uneven distribution of wealth means that many US people really can't afford to pay more for stuff not made in China.

An economist I'm not particularly following (I don't follow any) but I recognize as very liberal economically, for free trade etc., just released a book denouncing the mega rich, saying that they're destroying capitalism. When that happens, capitalists should worry.

Of course Trump isn't the one who is going to improve things for these people, at least not intentionally (you never know), he's a mega-rich himself, and not one of those talking about giving all their money to charity.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
PPVRA
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:38 pm

raylee67 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Embraer faced a 22.9% import tariff on ERJ-145 aircraft in the early 2000s, according to a research paper I found. They even build 4 ERJs that were never delivered to China because of the tariffs.

Now, that’s a while ago. Not sure what the current status is. But 22.9% is very high, cost prohibitive and obviously very protectionist.

The definition of protectionist is that the country is putting a trade restrictions (e.g. tariffs, quotas, etc.) to protect domestic industry making the same products. As far as I know, there is no Chinese made ERJ145 competitor in the market in the early 2000s. China cannot be protectionist in this example when there is no one in China to protect. Even now, there is no 50-seat RJ made in China, except for the licensed built ERJ145 made by Harbin.

China puts the tariffs there as a tactic to get Brazil to agree to let China build the ERJ145 themselves. China doesn't mind paying, but it wants to pay to gain the manufacturing know-how, instead of just the end product. It's a clever tactic, and it's a tactic that only China can employ, because its market is so large that no one wants to be shut out of it.

I think India is learning from this as well now. India is the only other country that can do the same. And it's adding provisions to foreign investments or government procurement that the know-how needs to be transferred to India.


Putting tariffs on a foreign product to incentivize domestic production is protectionism. It does not matter if that product already exists or not. Protectionist measures are often used to incentivize the creation of particular industries, not just protect already existent ones.

Sometimes, tariffs are in place merely to reduce imports and reduce trade imbalances. No real strategy beyond that.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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WarRI1
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:02 am

Sometimes, tariffs are in place merely to reduce imports and reduce trade imbalances. No real strategy beyond that.

I see nothing wrong with that. 500 billion imbalance from one country who is an enemy of this country is more than enough to levy tariffs on them.
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Jayafe
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:00 am

WarRI1 wrote:
I see nothing wrong with that. 500 billion imbalance from one country who is an enemy of this country is more than enough to levy tariffs on them.


1963 called to ask for you to send back his politics view.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:36 am

99.99% sure there is no real strategy by this administration, but foreign governments, companies and American corporations are on notice. They cannot abuse the system within the scope of international trade pacts and American laws. There is a twitter handle watching you.
 
tommy1808
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:54 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
There is a twitter handle watching you.


There is a Twitter handle dumping on Amazon for not paying sales tax, despite them paying sales tax in all states that have it, while running an online shop that pays sales tax only in two.

Since those are the same twitter handles, what that one is watching is irrelevant if you expect anything half way coherent coming out of them.

but foreign governments, companies and American corporations are on notice.


Yeah, the hear the "don´t invest in the USA" message loud and clear. If they act on it at least your trade deficit gets smaller, since foreign investments creating US Jobs count as deficit....

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
c933103
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:23 am

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 646_1.html
China Foreign Ministry spokesman say trade negotiation with the US is currently impossible, urges US not to misjudge the situation, after yesterday's "friends" tweet by Trump
 
tommy1808
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:28 am

c933103 wrote:
http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/impossible-to-negotiate-with-us-on-trade-china-118040900646_1.html
China Foreign Ministry spokesman say trade negotiation with the US is currently impossible, urges US not to misjudge the situation, after yesterday's "friends" tweet by Trump


Nice way of saying "with that loony in the White House, there is no point *negotiating*".

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
mham001
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Mon Apr 09, 2018 7:10 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
99.99% sure there is no real strategy by this administration, but foreign governments, companies and American corporations are on notice.


Thinking a bit deeper than "Trump is an idiot", I ran across this, a month old article by Ostrower about the goals of the Chinese and some of their recent Western technology acquisitions.

"With little fanfare in 2016, a quartet of Chinese firms bought four companies that specialize in factory automation and robotic assembly: Kuka AG and Broetje-Automation of Germany, Valiant Machine & Tool of Canada and Aritex of Spain. All four are now wholly- or mostly-owned by Midea Group, Shanghai Electric, Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment and AVIC, respectively.
The automated tools of all four for can be found in factories across the industry at every major plane maker on the planet.

The Center for Strategic & International Studies identified ten strategic sectors as part of its Made in China 2025 analysis that the nation believes are central to its ascent as an advanced economy. ‘Automated machine tools & robotics’ and ‘Aerospace and aeronautical equipment’ are numbers three and four on that list."

https://jonostrower.com/2018/03/chinas- ... nd-airbus/

So reading about the last round of announcements...

But many of the goods on that list are in industries like aerospace and engineering - areas of innovation that China wants to become a world leader over the next decade.
And the planned 25% tariffs do have the potential to hurt China.
The US bought close to $75bn (£53.2bn) of China's machinery and computers in 2017.
And that's expected to be almost $80bn in 2018 and 2019. These goods make up by far the biggest chunk of Chinese imports to the US. And they're on the list.
"The new US tariffs have really taken it up a notch," says Tony Nash of research house Complete Intelligence.
"The key issue is that it targets many of the value added goods being traded by China."

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43624925

So it appears the Trump administration is indeed thinking about what it is doing and targeting certain sectors dear to the future of Chinese prosperity. Will Europe have the balls to follow suit? I hear whistpers of envy from that side about our leader standing up the the Chinese. I read the comment sections in British papers (they have the most English language news of course) and see a lot of people writing "Yanks take care of their own", "wish we had a leader like that", etc, etc.

This month will be pivotal in Europe direction as Merkel and Macron are scheduled to visit Washington,

The leaders of Europe’s two biggest economies will visit the president in Washington within days of each other this month as the clock ticks down to a May 1 deadline for European Union proposals to stop the U.S. from imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum.

A possible solution may lie in White House efforts to forge a “trade coalition of the willing” to stand up to China for what it calls unfair trade practices. The move is gaining favor with the government in Berlin as well as with the EU, which handles the bloc’s trade negotiations, while a bruising trip to China earlier this year may make Macron more likely to lend his support.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... p-on-china

I, for one, feel extremely fortunate that the children of Anet are not dictating policy in Washington.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Mon Apr 09, 2018 7:38 pm

mham001 wrote:
I, for one, feel extremely fortunate that the children of Anet are not dictating policy in Washington.


There is a much childish and dangerous toddler in Washington at the moment dictating policies. No one in the world feels safe.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:51 pm

Nobody wants a trade war, but everyone should not abuse the system just because it is easy.

I don't agree with Trump's assertion about Amazon scamming USPS. Apple pays $3 to UPS to deliver iPhone from China to US customer's residence. That's how volume discounts work.

But, Amazon's unorganized last mile workforce situation is worse than Walmart employees. They are living in their cars/vans sleeping near fulfillment centers to get as many packages as possible. If Amazon wipes out rest of the retail industry, where would all those employees find jobs. Hope Bezos addresses this issue.

Foreigners are investing in US companies because it is easy for US companies to avoid US taxes by keeping profits off-shore. They are not investing in building US industrial base. China and Japan are lending because yields are good.

Look at General Motors, from a global automotive company, it is now pretty a US car company. It pulled out of UK, Germany, South Korea, India and South America for variety of reasons.

Indian IT companies were abusing H1B visas, Trump didn't change a single rule/law so far. Just out of fear, they stopped abusing the system. Obama or Bush didn't encourage them to abuse the visa system, they were more dignified which was taken as a weakness. USICS was imposing fines, companies were happily paying fines and continue to abuse the system. The fear a twitter handle changed their attitude.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:25 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Nobody wants a trade war, but everyone should not abuse the system just because it is easy.

I don't agree with Trump's assertion about Amazon scamming USPS. Apple pays $3 to UPS to deliver iPhone from China to US customer's residence. That's how volume discounts work.

But, Amazon's unorganized last mile workforce situation is worse than Walmart employees. They are living in their cars/vans sleeping near fulfillment centers to get as many packages as possible. If Amazon wipes out rest of the retail industry, where would all those employees find jobs. Hope Bezos addresses this issue.

Foreigners are investing in US companies because it is easy for US companies to avoid US taxes by keeping profits off-shore. They are not investing in building US industrial base. China and Japan are lending because yields are good.

Look at General Motors, from a global automotive company, it is now pretty a US car company. It pulled out of UK, Germany, South Korea, India and South America for variety of reasons.

Indian IT companies were abusing H1B visas, Trump didn't change a single rule/law so far. Just out of fear, they stopped abusing the system. Obama or Bush didn't encourage them to abuse the visa system, they were more dignified which was taken as a weakness. USICS was imposing fines, companies were happily paying fines and continue to abuse the system. The fear a twitter handle changed their attitude.



Well said, finally a rational view of the screwing we are all getting by everybody. Abusing the system, now a fine art, and we pay with billions and millions of jobs.
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
tommy1808
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:07 am

WarRI1 wrote:
and we pay with billions and millions of jobs.


ah.... Steel tariffs cost 5 workers for every job saved. You can be reasonable sure that these tariffs also cost more jobs than they protect.


mham001 wrote:
The Center for Strategic & International Studies identified ten strategic sectors as part of its Made in China 2025 analysis that the nation believes are central to its ascent as an advanced economy. ‘Automated machine tools & robotics’ and ‘Aerospace and aeronautical equipment’ are numbers three and four on that list."[/i]
https://jonostrower.com/2018/03/chinas- ... nd-airbus/

So reading about the last round of announcements...

[i]But many of the goods on that list are in industries like aerospace and engineering - areas of innovation that China wants to become a world leader over the next decade.
And the planned 25% tariffs do have the potential to hurt China.
The US bought close to $75bn (£53.2bn) of China's machinery and computers in 2017.
And that's expected to be almost $80bn in 2018 and 2019. These goods make up by far the biggest chunk of Chinese imports to the US. And they're on the list.
"The new US tariffs have really taken it up a notch," says Tony Nash of research house Complete Intelligence.


Little problem with the logic... the Chinese bought automation companies that in some areas of their expertise don´t have a US counterpart. So if someone in the US needs those machines he will have to buy them abroad anyways. Putting tariffs on those just makes those machines more expensive and US based manufacturing less competitive, while China won´t have much problems finding other customers simply via pricing. . They also get manufacturing based outside of China, so those tarifs don´t even work.

And since the PRC isn´t exactly and open market economy, the government probably doesn´t mind if tariff induced pricing pressure gets chinese maschine builders to expand their market-share even faster. I wouldn´t be surprised is they just drop prices by 20% and be done with it.

Will Europe have the balls to follow suit?


We already made laws giving the government a veto right on sales of certain industries. The US is way late to the party...... well, pussygrabbers usually lack balls, so no surprise there.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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Jayafe
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:38 am

mham001 wrote:
Will Europe have the balls to follow suit?


Sad times these when a so-called super power country passes laws for a matter of balls. The rest of the world still follows reason instead of testicles. I understand it’s easier than using the brain, but still sad...
 
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Jayafe
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:39 am

mham001 wrote:
Will Europe have the balls to follow suit?


Sad times these when a so-called super power country passes laws for a matter of balls. The rest of the world still follows reason instead of testicles. I understand it’s easier than using the brain, but still sad...
 
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Jayafe
Posts: 1203
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Re: China announces 25% tariff against some US-built planes

Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:40 am

mham001 wrote:
Will Europe have the balls to follow suit?


Sad times these when a so-called super power country passes laws for a matter of balls. The rest of the world still follows reason instead of testicles. I understand it’s easier than using the brain, but still sad...

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