Brexit EU position Phase 2

scbriml · Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:41 am

LTenEleven wrote:
In response to an FOI request, the Department for Exiting the EU said it hadn't approached a single external company to obtain ideas of how technology will help solve the Northern Irish border issue

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/stat...386989568?s=19

Your link doesn't appear to be working.

JJJ · Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:15 am

LTenEleven wrote:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-talks-latest-eu-immigration-free-movement-offer-a8326101.html#commentsDiv

Britain set to offer EU Brexit immigration deal 'very similar' to free movement

Brexit in name only.

Better start getting used to that.

Olddog · Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:34 am

A link for sevenair

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86849#disqus_thread

Brexit: of theoretical risks
Richard North, 29/04/2018

There was a time when dropping out of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) would have been welcome (to some). Booker wrote a story on it back in 2003 on the difficulties experienced by Swedish balloonist Per Lindstrand, who had been unable to get certification for his "HiFlyer" aerostats (one pictured), built by his Oswestry-based company.

This was just about the time EASA was taking over certification responsibilities from the UK's Civil Aviation Agency and other national governments in the EU, representing a major step in the inexorable march of European political and economic integration.

This continued until early 2005 when Lindstrand gained his certification, only for his firm to be plunged into another crisis when new EC regulations came into force requiring operations such as his to gain Design Organisation Approval (DOA) from EASA, involving a huge increase in bureaucracy and massive costs.

In due course, however. Lindstand's business was able to deal with the Kafkaesque bureaucracy and is now back in business - only now to face the same crises in reverse as, with Brexit, all his hard-won certification and approvals will lapse.

This was the message conveyed in the "Notice to Stakeholders " issued two weeks ago by the European Commission entitled "Withdrawal of the United Kingdom and EU aviation safety rules", heralding a situation that has the potential to cause serious damage to the UK's £31.8 billion-a-year aerospace sector.

The events leading up to this underline an important aspect of Brexit. Simply, while many were saying at the time we handed over so many functions to EASA that we should have maintained our own independent capabilities, the fact is that we didn't. And now, even if there are good reasons for rebuilding those capabilities, restoration will take time and cost a great deal. It is not something that can be rushed.

Thus, with Booker returning to the subject in this week's column, he suggests that if Theresa May really wants to know what she is up against as the months tick down on Brexit, she should read the Notice to Stakeholders.

This sets out in four pages just how totally dependent our aviation industry is for everything it does on authorisations granted by EASA, applying to every tiniest detail of how we make aircraft, to the running of our airports, to air traffic control, to the airworthiness of aircraft, to the certification and licensing of pilots, cabin crews, engineers, medical staff and trainers; in short, to every last item of what allows our aviation sector to function.

But as the document repeatedly makes clear, the moment the UK leaves the EU to become what it classifies as "a third country", every one of these authorisations and approvals will lapse. Unless each of them is replicated in time, our factories will close, our aircraft will be grounded, our airports and our entire £31?billion-a-year aerospace industry will shut down overnight.

The only clue Mrs May has given as to how she thinks this chaos can be avoided, as she said at the Mansion House, is that we should be allowed to remain in EASA. This was echoed by our own Civil Aviation Authority, which knows it would take years for us to create our own system. But the commission immediately pointed out that we cannot remain in EASA because, as the rules make clear, this is open only to EU members.

And we cannot even apply for the right for our airlines to fly to the EU and other countries until the moment we become a "third country", by a process that could then take months or even years to negotiate. Some of the biggest industry players have been waking up to the threat all this poses. Airbus and Ryanair, for instance, have both spoken of the possibility that their UK operations could "grind to a halt".

In fact, easyJet has already relocated its base to Austria; and Rolls-Royce, the world's second-largest aero-engine manufacturer, we learned last week, is making preparations to move part of its operations to Germany.

This was reported in the Telegraph, which gave some details but didn't really have the measure of the story.

Rolls-Royce, the paper said, is preparing to relocate the "signing off" of British-made airliner engines to Europe, as the EU aviation authority will hold the right to certify they are safe to fly in the event of a hard Brexit. The company, therefore, "is preparing the contingency plan to protect itself from huge disruption if negotiations stall over Britain leaving the EU

And more if you follow the link.

sevenair · Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:30 pm

Well. That's Rudd gone. Next we need to get rid of May. We need a Brexiteer at the helm to deliver Brexit. It's going to be fun watching you lot crying into your quinoa!

Too many hardcore remoaners (a bit like a.net really) and EU fanatics spoiling the opportunity. It's time to drain the swamp, and Rudd's the first head to roll.

Onward, Brexit soldiers!

scbriml · Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:42 pm

sevenair wrote:
We need a Brexiteer at the helm to deliver Brexit.

Who do you want, and what do expect them to deliver?

JRM? BoJo? :rotfl:

JJJ · Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:57 am

scbriml wrote:
sevenair wrote:
We need a Brexiteer at the helm to deliver Brexit.

Who do you want, and what do expect them to deliver?

JRM? BoJo?

This David Davis chap had a vision for Brexit. He even summed them in a nifty article back when he was appointed head of DExEU.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platfor ... itain.html

Economic growth in the UK has been founded on a number of unhealthy characteristics in the last decade or so. It has depended above all on large population increases based on uncontrolled mass migration. This has made the economy bigger, but not necessarily better for individual citizens, as shown by GDP per capita growth rates of two per cent or less

Sounds good so far. Not necessarily aligned with what business leaders are asking, but ok.

The first order of business is to put that right. As the amicable statements coming from the US, Australia, China and India show, these countries are as keen to knock down trade barriers as we are.

(...)

So be under no doubt: we can do deals with our trading partners, and we can do them quickly. I would expect the new Prime Minister on September 9th to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months.

So within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU.

Ehm.... NOPE.

At the moment all businesses in the UK must comply with EU regulation, even if they export nothing to the EU. This impacts on our global competitiveness. Instead, we should look to match regulation for companies to their primary export markets.

Another big fat nope here.

This leaves the question of Single Market access. The ideal outcome, (and in my view the most likely, after a lot of wrangling) is continued tariff-free access. Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest.
(...)
This is one of the reasons for taking a little time before triggering Article 50. The negotiating strategy has to be properly designed, and there is some serious consultation to be done first. Constitutional propriety requires us to consult with the Scots, Welsh, and Northern Irish governments first, and common sense implies that we should consult with stakeholders like the City, CBI, TUC, small business bodies, the NFU, universities and research foundations and the like. None of them should have any sort of veto, but we should try to accommodate their concerns so long as it does not compromise the main aim. This whole process should be completed to allow triggering of Article 50

This one's a gem. So many predictions gone wrong.

So how will this look if we get it right? We will have a more dynamic economy, trading throughout the world. Our businesses will have greater global opportunities, and will be more competitive. There will be lower prices in the shops, once we are outside the Common External Tariff. There will be higher wages for the poorest. An immigration system that allows us to control numbers. Control of our laws, so our lives are not hampered by needless and restrictive regulations.

Let me check. Prices have grown more than inflation (UK leads the bottom in real wage growth) the pound has taken a hit. Net migration has taken a big hit, but still high thanks to the non-EU component. And of course those needless and restrictive regulations stay in place.

Good job.

Richard28 · Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:13 am

Liam Fox could be the next leader, he's got plenty of time on his hands, as he still getting nowhere with any trade deals..

meanwhile Borris Johnson will of course do whatever it takes to become leader, that was after all the premise of his decision to back leaving the EU in the first place.

Back in the real world the house of Lords is voting today on an amendment that could see the people get a vote on the outcome in the negotiations..

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/b ... 79-R-I.pdf

democracy in action!

Richard28 · Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:13 pm

sevenair wrote:
Well. That's Rudd gone. Next we need to get rid of May. We need a Brexiteer at the helm to deliver Brexit. It's going to be fun watching you lot crying into your quinoa!

Irrespective of who is in charge, the leader needs a majority in the commons to get anything done.

May is already having issues in this regard, and any new leader forcing through a harder version of Brexit will not have an easier time in this regard.

There may have been a referendum, but remember that has no legal status, and everything still has to get through the House of Commons.

Not easy. My quinoa is safe for now.

tommy1808 · Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:30 pm

JJJ wrote:
At the moment all businesses in the UK must comply with EU regulation, even if they export nothing to the EU. This impacts on our global competitiveness. Instead, we should look to match regulation for companies to their primary export markets.

Another big fat nope here.

Stuff imported into the EU for sales in the EU and stuff made in the EU for sales in the EU has to comply, if you make stuff for export, no one cares but the country you export too.

Regulatory items can be mutually exclusive, and we have a warehouse full of stuff that doesn´t have CE, because it is OEM for the US and only carries FCC and UL. As if we would do/need a freaking expensive RED certification just to have it comply to regulations that never come to bear....

One can not fail to get the impression that Brexiteers have in fact no idea what EU regulations are and how they work.

Unless of course he is talking about EU Workplace safety standards, those of course also apply when made for export.

best regards
Thomas

Richard28 · Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:10 pm

Peers have backed an amendment by 335 to 244, majority 91, to give Parliament a decisive say on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, including in the event of there being no deal.

Great news for democracy... more bad news for those wanting an extreme Brexit without parliamentary scrutiny.

94717 · Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:28 pm

I miss something in UK press;

A discussion about

A. Ireland have a veto on any outcome until NI is solved.

B, EU parliament has veto on any agreement and the EU citizens is special concern and the current mess with immigration does not look good ;-(

Still my impression is that the UK government is more concerned about infighting then trying to listen to what the EU27 and special ROI says.

I have a feeling that in October the UK government will push a NI solution and ROI will give its veto. Then it is too late and WTO rules will be next.

94717 · Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:31 pm

By the way UK (both government and people) still treats ROI like it is a colony. They missed that ROI supported by EU27 has a position against UK it never had before in its history.

Richard28 · Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:51 pm

olle wrote:
I miss something in UK press;

A discussion about

A. Ireland have a veto on any outcome until NI is solved.

B, EU parliament has veto on any agreement and the EU citizens is special concern and the current mess with immigration does not look good ;-(

Still my impression is that the UK government is more concerned about infighting then trying to listen to what the EU27 and special ROI says.

I have a feeling that in October the UK government will push a NI solution and ROI will give its veto. Then it is too late and WTO rules will be next.

The EU have requested a solution on NI border by June

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 29121.html

Either the UK is sandbagging or after 2 years of nothing they have no solution that suits all of the cabinet/party. My money is on the latter!

This also makes today’s decision in the lords very relevant, as a ‘no deal’ scenario cannot be forced through (assuming the commons agree with this amendment which is likely).

It is funny how the UK press dismisses the EU27 and how they will be voting in their best interests... not the UK’s.... ROI is a potential issue here, as is Spain (ie Gibraltar issues)...

UK is in such a weak position....

sabenapilot · Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:32 pm

Well it's definitely not the position of strength promised prior to the referendum!
So far, I haven't heard any whistling from Brussels, only begging from London really: begging for 'flexibility', for 'imagination', for more time, for a transitional agreement... begging for help really, because clearly the complexity of the task is beyond the capabilities of all those who said it would be so easy.
It seems Parliament in Westminster has lost patience with the Brexit clowns in government and are increasingly taking back control: Brexit is being shaped by them into something sensible and deliverable and it won't be pretty for sure: in the CU and totally unable to conclude any trade deals, subject to the SM rules via NI, continued FOM even and yet deprived of any vote in the EU's all important decision making process.

LAH1 · Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:23 pm

olle wrote:
By the way UK (both government and people) still treats ROI like it is a colony. They missed that ROI supported by EU27 has a position against UK it never had before in its history.

If you mean "all the government and people" then that's simply not true. You make it sound as if the whole country is thinking like that. Your opinion over simplifies the situation and doesn't at all reflect nearly half the population.

prebennorholm · Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:58 pm

olle wrote:
By the way UK (both government and people) still treats ROI like it is a colony. They missed that ROI supported by EU27 has a position against UK it never had before in its history.

Nah, that's wrong. The EU27 doesn't have any position against the UK. The EU is a club where a country can be a member if it wishes so and fulfills certain criteria. Or a country can be affiliated i certain different ways like Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Turkey and others. All governed by club rules which the UK helped develop over 40+ years.

The UK may ask for whatever affiliation they want. They know all the choices. The EU27 including RoI only has to check that what is chosen is within the rules. And then they can talk with the UK about the smartest transition procedures up to 31 December 2020.

There may be UK politicians who believe that Brexit can be solved by cherry picking after "negotiations" where the two parties "fight" with some weight of "power". That's not the case.

The UK and the EU27 just have two very different roles:
The UK chooses type of affiliation, (or no such thing = hard Brexit).
The EU27 approves any affiliation type wished by the UK because it is within the rules, or they disapprove because it violates the rules.

No position. And certainly no "position against the UK".

sabenapilot · Tue May 01, 2018 7:08 am

prebennorholm wrote:
olle wrote:
By the way UK (both government and people) still treats ROI like it is a colony. They missed that ROI supported by EU27 has a position against UK it never had before in its history.

Nah, that's wrong. The EU27 doesn't have any position against the UK. The EU is a club where a country can be a member if it wishes so and fulfills certain criteria. Or a country can be affiliated i certain different ways like Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Turkey and others. All governed by club rules which the UK helped develop over 40+ years.

The UK may ask for whatever affiliation they want. They know all the choices. The EU27 including RoI only has to check that what is chosen is within the rules. And then they can talk with the UK about the smartest transition procedures up to 31 December 2020.

There may be UK politicians who believe that Brexit can be solved by cherry picking after "negotiations" where the two parties "fight" with some weight of "power". That's not the case.

The UK and the EU27 just have two very different roles:
The UK chooses type of affiliation, (or no such thing = hard Brexit).
The EU27 approves any affiliation type wished by the UK because it is within the rules, or they disapprove because it violates the rules.

No position. And certainly no "position against the UK".

And yet the UK government is wrongfully convinced they can propose something 'new', 'creative', 'special', 'flexible' and 'imaginative' that can have them keep whatever they want, without the reciprocal obligations that come with it and the rules will be changed by the EU27.

The UK government's illusion of British global exceptionalism and importance to the EU is what's leading them nowhere: it's high time certain people in Downingstreet start to open their eyes and see the UK as it IS today, not as it WAS 100 years ago: Britain is just a medium sized European country which is on the brink of throwing away much of its global relevance by completely sidelining itself from the only club which allows it to keep some (shared) influence over its own destiny in a world which is going to be dominated by a handful of super economies with several hundreds of millions of people each.

The rules of the EU are the way they are because they are the only workable way to have 28 European nations work togerher and obviously not a single one of those 27 remaining nations wants to start fiddling with them only to accomodate just one quiting member, exactly as was predicted by anybody with a sense of realism, so here's Brexit Britain now: almost 2 full years after the referendum, still unable to understand it will have to make a simple choice between the different gradations of EU affiliation like shown on the favous Barnier slide: WTO, Turkey, Ukraine, Switzerland or Norway.

Dutchy · Tue May 01, 2018 7:31 am

True, but the rhetoric is difficult to handle. You have to deal with the referendum and the UK government knows it has to guide the UK in something which is less then they have now. Damage control with a lot of people shouting to do the maximum of damage. Impossible situation. PM May is in a position not to be envied.

seahawk · Tue May 01, 2018 7:52 am

If the negotiations fail it is only due to the remoaners and the EU.

Dutchy · Tue May 01, 2018 8:10 am

seahawk wrote:
If the negotiations fail it is only due to the remoaners and the EU.

Haha, you do know that there are two parties to a negotiation right? Or am I feeding tolling behavior?

Richard28 · Tue May 01, 2018 8:17 am

Richard28 wrote:
No no no, after Brexit, whatever happens next, the same old politicians will always blame the EU for what transpires.

Leopords can't change their spots.

The EU has been an easy scapegoat up to now and will regrettably continue to be so in the future, if not more so.

Told you so:

seahawk wrote:
If the negotiations fail it is only due to the remoaners and the EU.

Richard28 · Tue May 01, 2018 8:28 am

Daily Mail is having another hissy fit this morning, "House of Unelected Wreckers" is their headline.

Again not understanding how British Democracy works, as what is passed in the Lords needs to be voted on by our democratically elected MP's. But then they never understood EU democracy either did they... perhaps my standards are too high?!

seahawk · Tue May 01, 2018 8:49 am

Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
If the negotiations fail it is only due to the remoaners and the EU.

Haha, you do know that there are two parties to a negotiation right? Or am I feeding tolling behavior?

That will be the result in the UK, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. One should never forget that the whole Brexit came about due to a power struggle within the ruling party in the UK and I am certain that no party in the political landscape in the UK would be honest enough to confess that they fucked up. So in good old British tradition all problems will be blamed on the internal opposition and the EU.

If a hard Brexit happens, it will be blamed on the Brexiteers and the EU. But the only thing both sides in the UK will agree on is that the EU is responsible for any problems.

Richard28 · Tue May 01, 2018 9:24 am

seahawk wrote:
If a hard Brexit happens, it will be blamed on the Brexiteers and the EU. But the only thing both sides in the UK will agree on is that the EU is responsible for any problems.

No, I would not blame a hard Brexit on the EU.

sevenair · Tue May 01, 2018 9:36 am

So. We voted for blue passports despite no mention prior to the referendum. The Irish border was so obvious that nobody mentioned it prior to that momentous day we voted to take back control, reignite the empire and bring back incandescent lightbulbs.

Dead (wo)man walking Theresa May is in an even more precarious position. Said Javid is not Amber Rudd. Remainer May's customs union fudge is looking less likely. Real Brexit is looking far more within reach despite what the unelected lords may try.

Funny these lefties. They bang on about the rich and millionaires. Those very same people who are hailed as heroes when they try to obfuscate the will of the people. A bit like how MOL went from villain to a.net hero.

Remoaners. Making it up, rewriting history and moving the goalposts.

Now where are my BRXT and PIVT roster codes for next year? Looking to book my jollies you see. Maybe an aound Britain cruise. None of that Euro trash for me you thank you very much.

bananaboy · Tue May 01, 2018 9:49 am

Richard28 wrote:
Daily Mail is having another hissy fit this morning, "House of Unelected Wreckers" is their headline.

Again not understanding how British Democracy works, as what is passed in the Lords needs to be voted on by our democratically elected MP's. But then they never understood EU democracy either did they... perhaps my standards are too high?!

There's no end to the hatred that they spew..

Elected politicians are 'saboteurs'
Independent judiciary are 'enemies of the people.'
Universities (you know..places where people go to learn, analyse, debate..) are remainer hotspots and are criticised for questioning the wisdom of Brexit.

And now, the Lords are pushing the bill back to the Commons. Back to the politicians who were elected. By the people. #willofthepeople

I thought that the EU had all the power? Where has this power to analyse the process of Brexit come from? Did we forget we had it?

Perhaps this is just the wrong sort of democracy for the rabid Brexiteers in the right wing of politics and the media. They need a parliament full of pliable politicians who will act as they are pressured to do by non-dom newspaper editors who can threaten to plaster their names across the front page, label them as criminal and put their position at risk if they don't toe the line. No wonder they want the House of Lords gone.

The Conservative Party - taking back control whilst simultaneously losing it at the same time. So entertaining. So tragic. And to think, another leaver now out of the cabinet and on the back benches free to vote as she believes in the best interests of her constituents. Will she vote against the amendment? Who knows.

Mark
#thepeoplesvote

sevenair · Tue May 01, 2018 2:36 pm

Oh no! Now we won't be able to have day trips for our kids to the EU! Quelle tragedie!

The excitement from the remain camp and EU evangelists is palpable. They see the Lord's intervention and the possibility of a say on the final deal will stop Brexit. Tragically it won't. All that will happen is that A50 time will expire and we will 'crash out' as you lot say. That's not a good solution for remainiacs nor beLeavers but if that's how you want to play it then you're welcome to it.

Richard28 · Tue May 01, 2018 3:23 pm

sevenair wrote:
They see the Lord's intervention and the possibility of a say on the final deal will stop Brexit. Tragically it won't. All that will happen is that A50 time will expire and we will 'crash out' as you lot say.

No, the amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill (if approved by the House of Commons) would give MPs the power to stop the UK from leaving the EU without a deal, or make Theresa May return to the negotiating table.

seems like a very sensible amendment to me

Richard28 · Tue May 01, 2018 5:44 pm

Next up in the Lords tomorrow is an amendment (no. 88) to ensure that no hard border gets created between UK and ROI.

Seeing as the government have already agreed to this (just have not explained how!), Brexiters should not see this as a loss of democracy tomorrow?

Will of course be nice to have something in legislation that protects peoples rights and the Good Friday agreement.

https://www.peoples-vote.uk
#exitbrexit

JJJ · Wed May 02, 2018 3:02 pm

So, in light of the recent Windrush scandal citizens were asked whether certain nationalities make a positive or a negative contribution to the UK.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... ration.pdf

Australians +45
Irish +40
Germans +38
Americans +36
Polish +28
Indians +25
Jamaicans +18
Pakistanis -2
Bangladeshis -3
Nigerians -11
Romanians -18
Somalis -21

Pleasantly surprised to see Poles up there, topping Indians. What's the deal with Romanians, though?

bennett123 · Wed May 02, 2018 3:28 pm

I understand that many of the Gypsies we see are Romanian.

Many resort to pick pocketing and aggressive begging.

frmrCapCadet · Wed May 02, 2018 3:45 pm

Extreme Right (or Fascists if you prefer) whether of the Islamic, Buddhist, Christian, or Marxist versions are long believers in the One man, One vote, One time rule. They always assume they can get at least one vote, and then rule forever. Long live the British Empire Caliphate. Not! As I understand it, the House of Commons is what in the US would be called sovereign (with limitations from the government, crown, and upper house). The upper house has simply told commons to rule.

We often face an analogous problem. Congress passes conflicting laws and the supreme court has to rule as best they can. They get blamed for judicial arrogance, but have no power to tell congress to improve its lawmaking (they suggest - repeatedly).

Richard28 · Wed May 02, 2018 6:14 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Next up in the Lords tomorrow is an amendment (no. 88) to ensure that no hard border gets created between UK and ROI.

Pleased to hear this amendment has also been passed by the Lords today.

noviorbis77 · Wed May 02, 2018 11:22 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Next up in the Lords tomorrow is an amendment (no. 88) to ensure that no hard border gets created between UK and ROI.

Pleased to hear this amendment has also been passed by the Lords today.

Forgive my ignorance, but can Parliament veto this amendment?

Richard28 · Thu May 03, 2018 5:47 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Forgive my ignorance, but can Parliament veto this amendment?

All amendments passed by the lords need to be voted on by the House of Commons.

It is therefore down to there being sufficient defectors in the Conservative party to ensure that such amendments are passed.

There are about 10 conservatives who have gone against the government on such issues before so it is possible this will get passed if they vote in favour again.

There is no power of veto by the government, however if she feels threatened the prime minister could make the commons vote a vote of confidence, in which case a loss could mean a new election. Such a move may help all of her party vote in line with government policy. But comes with big risks if she were to lose.

Richard28 · Thu May 03, 2018 9:50 am

So Theresa May's plans for "A Customs Partnership" has faced opposition from the Brexiteers in her cabinet, so they are now, with 10 months to go, and 8 weeks left to report on a viable plan to the EU, still kicking the can down the road.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43983592

The joke of this of course is that they don't want "the" customs union, as they want their "own" trade deals, thereby removing UK's access to all the various EU trade deals already in place and being negotiated in the future. Ideological madness.

Unless the recent Lords amendment is passed, this also increases the likelihood of a hard border in Ireland, separating people from their schools, shops, families and breaking Theresa Mays pledges and of course the Good Friday agreement.... this is not what was voted for in 2016. Utter shambles.

UK Brexit strategy is on the verge of collapse.. the clock is ticking......

#exitbrexit
http://www.peoples-vote.uk

Dutchy · Thu May 03, 2018 1:13 pm

So after all this time they still don't know what they want. If I where a UK citizen, doesn't matter if I where a Brexiteer or remainder, I would be pissed off of this government, they still don't know what they are going to do.

scbriml · Thu May 03, 2018 1:56 pm

Dutchy wrote:
So after all this time they still don't know what they want. If I where a UK citizen, doesn't matter if I where a Brexiteer or remainder, I would be pissed off of this government, they still don't know what they are going to do.

The problem is, Dutchy, nobody who voted to leave knew what they were going to get. :banghead:

Richard28 · Thu May 03, 2018 2:31 pm

Dutchy wrote:
So after all this time they still don't know what they want. If I where a UK citizen, doesn't matter if I where a Brexiteer or remainder, I would be pissed off of this government, they still don't know what they are going to do.

Theresa May has walked a tight rope since becoming PM, not wanting to offend either the remainer MPs or the Brexiteer MPs.

However at some point she will have to upset someone. And that point should have been before Article 50 was triggered.

She seems to be stalling just to retain power, and sod the consequences.

JJJ · Thu May 03, 2018 2:57 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So after all this time they still don't know what they want. If I where a UK citizen, doesn't matter if I where a Brexiteer or remainder, I would be pissed off of this government, they still don't know what they are going to do.

Theresa May has walked a tight rope since becoming PM, not wanting to offend either the remainer MPs or the Brexiteer MPs.

However at some point she will have to upset someone. And that point should have been before Article 50 was triggered.

She seems to be stalling just to retain power, and sod the consequences.

And she will find out that pandering to either part means she loses her fragile majority, which is the simple reason why she's hoping for a deus ex machina of some sort to give her a honourable exit.

LJ · Thu May 03, 2018 4:11 pm

JJJ wrote:
And she will find out that pandering to either part means she loses her fragile majority, which is the simple reason why she's hoping for a deus ex machina of some sort to give her a honourable exit.

Or she just waits to the end and then blame both sides. She'll go, but she'll argue that it's due to fact both sides not being able to agree and thus it's not her fault. I personally think May is smart enough to understand the situation she's in and thus she knows she can't win. Moreover I also think she's smart enough to understand that nothing is going to save her. Therefore, why not going to the end and play the blaming game. What does she have to loose at this moment?

Richard28 · Thu May 03, 2018 5:40 pm

I guess it comes down to legacy.

However failing in the good Friday agreement, failure to ensure no new customs checkpoints, damage to the economy and failure to get a deal will hardly be something to be proud of.

As such I do wonder what her end game is?

JJJ · Thu May 03, 2018 8:03 pm

Richard28 wrote:

As such I do wonder what her end game is?

She'll write a book painting herself as a heroic voice of reason between two undesirable extremes that in the end inevitably yields honourably against unfathomable odds, thus absolving herself of all blame.

It will sell like hotcakes and ensure her a cushy retirement and plenty of paid time ay public forums worldwide.

noviorbis77 · Thu May 03, 2018 9:54 pm

scbriml wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So after all this time they still don't know what they want. If I where a UK citizen, doesn't matter if I where a Brexiteer or remainder, I would be pissed off of this government, they still don't know what they are going to do.

The problem is, Dutchy, nobody who voted to leave knew what they were going to get.

That is very true.

sabenapilot · Fri May 04, 2018 5:35 am

Dutchy wrote:
So after all this time they still don't know what they want. If I where a UK citizen, doesn't matter if I where a Brexiteer or remainder, I would be pissed off of this government, they still don't know what they are going to do.

Meanwhile, while politicians are just busy infighting, those who actually need to keep Britain afloat are seeing the cliff edge near and are thus sounding out the EC to extend the recently agreed second transition period by yet another 4 to 5 years, so till the mid 2020s at least ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-to-think

seahawk · Fri May 04, 2018 5:56 am

Richard28 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So after all this time they still don't know what they want. If I where a UK citizen, doesn't matter if I where a Brexiteer or remainder, I would be pissed off of this government, they still don't know what they are going to do.

Theresa May has walked a tight rope since becoming PM, not wanting to offend either the remainer MPs or the Brexiteer MPs.

However at some point she will have to upset someone. And that point should have been before Article 50 was triggered.

She seems to be stalling just to retain power, and sod the consequences.

She can´t stall for much longer, otherwise somebody will have the ambition to replace her. Johnson will be waiting for that moment. And he will probably go down the hard Brexit route and will blame all hardship on May.

Dutchy · Fri May 04, 2018 7:11 am

seahawk wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So after all this time they still don't know what they want. If I where a UK citizen, doesn't matter if I where a Brexiteer or remainder, I would be pissed off of this government, they still don't know what they are going to do.

Theresa May has walked a tight rope since becoming PM, not wanting to offend either the remainer MPs or the Brexiteer MPs.

However at some point she will have to upset someone. And that point should have been before Article 50 was triggered.

She seems to be stalling just to retain power, and sod the consequences.

She can´t stall for much longer, otherwise somebody will have the ambition to replace her. Johnson will be waiting for that moment. And he will probably go down the hard Brexit route and will blame all hardship on May.

Why would Johnson want to replace her, or anyone with some talent for that matter? In your scenario, the next prime minister can only oversee a train wreck and will go down into history as the worst prime minister in history.

seahawk · Fri May 04, 2018 7:59 am

Unless you use May a the scapegoat. Then you blame the train wreck on her.

sevenair · Fri May 04, 2018 9:09 am

So, the only party that can be trusted to deliver a real Brexit did rather well in the local elections. The Marxists and their policy (well, their current policy) of Brexit in name only didn't do as well as they'd hoped and as well as remoaners were hoping for.

So, we've had:
-A 6-1 vote in favour of the EU referendum
-The EU referendum with a majority voting to leave measured in millions
-Overhwlming support in favour of triggering A50 (Corbyn wanted it the next day)
-Pro Brexit (when labour were pro Brexit) parties getting a vast majority of votes in GE17
-Local elections showing that support is rather unchanged and anti Brexit Labour didn't do too well

It seems we are leaving the EU Despite the Lords (my how the remoaners love their unelected undemocratic law makers) we are still leaving the EU!

It seems another GE in November isn't off the cards. The Marxists still wonder get their grubby hands on Number 10 and we can replace hard remain May with a real brexiteer to steer this great ship out in the great ocean of the world.

sabenapilot · Fri May 04, 2018 9:50 am

In any case, the 'harder' brexit, the longer the transitional standstil period: that's the only given right now.
Next up the agenda is the negotiation of the extension of the second transition period and the price for that (the conditions are already pretty much known: full SM and CU membership and financial contributions at current rates... in future these will likely be higher even, since the UK's rebate wont count any longer!): it's clear there will be a BRINO till deep into the 2020s, with the final outcome decided not by this government, and likely not even by the next one either, but the one after that, if the current one can't make it's mind up quickly about what direction to take.
At which point another referendum might be logical since you can't decide policy on a referendum of a decade ago!
My bet: in 2024 a referendum on a Norway type of membership, and it will be accepted.

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