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Aesma
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:17 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I'll ask you a question for a change. Obviously you want Britain to stay in the EU. Obviously that can't happen in the current form. So what would you like to see instead? We spend a lot of time discussing what i think so i'd like to know what you think instead for a change.


For me staying in the customs union is a no brainer, as it helps maintain trade deals with the various other countries I listed earlier today, and saves big headaches and costs for our borders and trade.

The Single market also seems like a sensible way forward. Theresa May talks of equivalence going forward... if you are trying do this, then why not go the whole hog and stay in the SM to retain the full advantages including trade in services, which is 80% of our economy.

The CU/SM combination would also solve the good Friday/Northern Ireland question.

The UK can then enact rules to ensure migrants have adequate finances, and health insurance in place helping to protect the NHS.

I would still counter that staying in the EU would be better, but I think this outcome would be a reasonable compromise for me.


That's not on the table, though.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:50 pm

Aesma wrote:
That's not on the table, though.


There are commons votes next week on SM and CU, assuming the conservatives don't self destruct in the meantime.

Not sure they will pass, as Labour have no spine to be an effective opposition on Brexit, but will be interesting to see nonetheless.

The last bit around health insurance can be done whilst in the EU, so should not be a problem.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:07 am

I mean the EU is not offering this. With the single market comes freedom of movement.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:03 am

Arion640 wrote:
[o what would you like to see instead?


anything on the what the EU has to offer step image that has been posted a gazillion time is ultimately fine. As long there is some fully negotiated agreement in place by the time you leave. And the whole "ok, we know we made the rules of who can participate in which way under which conditions together with all the other EU members, but we want the EU to break those rules" nonsense needs to stop. And that is more or less everything that came out of the UK since the vote.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:23 am

Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

I acknowkedge your point. But it does exports and inbound tourism a good turn. But we haven't seen any out of the ordinary inflation so it's not applicable. UK had a currency free fall when they disconnected from the ERM, we bounced back in time.


Well, the numbers are there. Of course it's not Zimbabwean inflation, but it's still a slow drip of disposable income.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 07986.html

You may not immediately notice also because of shrinkflation, the way some manufacturers keep the price but put less product in the package.


I've got the April 18 figures open. UK 2.4 pc , germany 2.2 pc, USA 2.5 pc. I don't think we have anything to worry about.


Inflation from a single month is meaningless. The effect of a steadily higher inflation has already happened and is not coming back (I don't think anyone expects negative inflation any time soon) unless the pound rallies by something like 20-30%
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:28 am

Aesma wrote:
I mean the EU is not offering this. With the single market comes freedom of movement.


indeed it does, and you are right that in my ideal hypothetical, freedom of movement would remain.

There are restrictions however (such as what Belgium does) that could be put in place quite easily under this framework.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:55 am

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Well, the numbers are there. Of course it's not Zimbabwean inflation, but it's still a slow drip of disposable income.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 07986.html

You may not immediately notice also because of shrinkflation, the way some manufacturers keep the price but put less product in the package.


I've got the April 18 figures open. UK 2.4 pc , germany 2.2 pc, USA 2.5 pc. I don't think we have anything to worry about.


Inflation from a single month is meaningless. The effect of a steadily higher inflation has already happened and is not coming back (I don't think anyone expects negative inflation any time soon) unless the pound rallies by something like 20-30%


Yes of course, you need to compare things year on year. But what I'm saying is, it's not like this is a rate of inflation the UK hasn't experienced before brexit. The economy is growing as inflation is happening, so an interest raise may be within a year.
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Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:56 am

Richard28 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I mean the EU is not offering this. With the single market comes freedom of movement.


indeed it does, and you are right that in my ideal hypothetical, freedom of movement would remain.

There are restrictions however (such as what Belgium does) that could be put in place quite easily under this framework.


Please could you update me on belgium as I can't say I know a huge ammount about this.
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:10 am

More on Rules of Origin in the press today.

https://news.sky.com/story/government-w ... t-11396219

The UK car industry could be in a bit of a pickle. Cars manufactured in the UK currently only have 25% UK parts, which means that in the event of the UK leaving the Customs Union then the cars made in the UK would not currently be constituted as British and benefit from any trade deals we may put in place thereafter.

As such WTO tariffs (which are up to 10% on cars) would apply on all exports, unless the UK percentage increases (up to 55%-60%) or a suitable deal is done.

Reminds me of how shocked I was when the Sunderland EU referendum result came in (it was one of the first). That is home to the successful Nissan plant, Turkeys voting for Christmas sprang to my mind at the time.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:17 am

Arion640 wrote:

Please could you update me on belgium as I can't say I know a huge ammount about this.


discussed up thread, the link has full details:

Richard28 wrote:
* If you envisage staying longer than three months, you must register with the Belgian authorities and provide evidence that you can support yourself financially and have adequate health insurance.

https://www.expatica.com/be/visas-and-p ... 43311.html
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:07 am

#despiteBrexit
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:12 am

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Please could you update me on belgium as I can't say I know a huge ammount about this.


discussed up thread, the link has full details:

Richard28 wrote:
* If you envisage staying longer than three months, you must register with the Belgian authorities and provide evidence that you can support yourself financially and have adequate health insurance.

https://www.expatica.com/be/visas-and-p ... 43311.html


Thanks.

In other news KeolisAmey are to move there global HQ to Wales.
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Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:46 am

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Please could you update me on belgium as I can't say I know a huge ammount about this.


discussed up thread, the link has full details:

Richard28 wrote:
* If you envisage staying longer than three months, you must register with the Belgian authorities and provide evidence that you can support yourself financially and have adequate health insurance.

https://www.expatica.com/be/visas-and-p ... 43311.html


Thanks.

In other news KeolisAmey are to move their global HQ to Wales.
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LJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Arion640 wrote:
In other news KeolisAmey are to move their global HQ to Wales.


Indeed, from London to Wales. What's the relationship with Brexit?
 
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FabDiva
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:39 pm

That's only their joint UK transport operation moving to Wales from London. Kelois and Amey will keep their French and Spanish HQs. Kelois is planning to move it's Rail HQ to Wales, with other operations remaining in France.
Last edited by FabDiva on Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:25 pm

FabDiva wrote:
That's only their joint UK transport operation moving to Wales from London. Kelois and Amey will keep their French and Spanish HQs. Kelois is planning to move it's Rail HQ to Wales, with other operations remaining in France.


"Keolis will also relocate its global rail division from Paris to Wales by 2020"

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.wale ... 752672.amp
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:35 pm

Keolis is a French business owned by the French state through the state railway company SNCF. It has just won a major contract in Wales, that's why it's moving there. Nothing to do with Brexit one way or the other.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:54 pm

Aesma wrote:
Keolis is a French business owned by the French state through the state railway company SNCF. It has just won a major contract in Wales, that's why it's moving there. Nothing to do with Brexit one way or the other.


Yeah, you would say that.
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rutankrd
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:06 pm

Arion640 taking over the Welsh rail franchise for a set period of time from Arriva - some 15 years that’s along time by many UK franchise let’s.
Seem to have great plans for a revised rail service , however it’s all subject about £5 billion of public money in subsidies of one type or another .
Doubtless profits will be repatriated as and when to support SNCF operations across the waters.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:15 pm

They know how the UK economy will take off once free of the EU. I am inbvesting everything into shares of UK companies as they will boom like no other.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase

Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:16 pm

rutankrd wrote:
Arion640 taking over the Welsh rail franchise for a set period of time from Arriva - some 15 years that’s along time by many UK franchise let’s.
Seem to have great plans for a revised rail service , however it’s all subject about £5 billion of public money in subsidies of one type or another .
Doubtless profits will be repatriated as and when to support SNCF operations across the waters.


Not the point I was trying to make, but thank you.

What I thought was good, is how a firm with European interests and is currently EU based is about to move into the UK.
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ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase

Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:59 pm

Arion640 wrote:
rutankrd wrote:
Arion640 taking over the Welsh rail franchise for a set period of time from Arriva - some 15 years that’s along time by many UK franchise let’s.
Seem to have great plans for a revised rail service , however it’s all subject about £5 billion of public money in subsidies of one type or another .
Doubtless profits will be repatriated as and when to support SNCF operations across the waters.


Not the point I was trying to make, but thank you.

What I thought was good, is how a firm with European interests and is currently EU based is about to move into the UK.


To be clear the rail division of a firm with European interests and a large project in Wales is moving to Wales.

Begs the question: how is this related to Brexit?

Are they trying to bypass potential border/HQ issues? Is it because they expect tax cuts/lower regulations after Brexit? Is it because they anticipate more projects in Wales post-Brexit?
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:12 am

The British government has finally published their backstop solution to the NI/EI problem, and it's another humiliating roll over!

Not only does the latest proposal contain yet another delay on the first possible effective departure date of the UK from the EU, meaning it's thus the 3rd time the UK unilaterally decides to push back the moment it 'takes back control', but also does it surprisingly extend the principle of an everlasting backstop solution in case no deal is reached from just NI to the whole of the UK.

Clearly, there are 3 key issues with this proposed solution, all to be resolved in negotiations with the EU, as expressed by the British government.

1- the EU asked for solutions to both CU as well as SM issues along the NI/EI border, whereas this proposal only talks about the CU: I thus expect the UK to simply add the SM to it's proposal on continued CU membership for the region at the last minute during the negotiations.

2- a backstop can never be time limited by definition, unless the end state is guaranteed identical or better even, so although the British government is trying very hard to make it sound as if this is not their view of the end state, it effectively is, as it was previously agreed the backstop can only be ended if and when the EU thinks it may, despite the British now trying very hard to make it sound they could also pull the plug on it.

3- The EU only offered free participation in its CU/SM to NI in order to solve the Irish problem, the UK now begs for the whole of the country to be included, so it will obviously no longer be free: expect continued financial contributions beyond 2020 along the lines of the contributions of today.

Basically, the UK is asking for the NORWAY option and more even (i.e.: CU): welcome to the end state of the new UK-EU relations: full participation, no representation.
Complete roll over. :D
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:51 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
The British government has finally published their backstop solution to the NI/EI problem, and it's another humiliating roll over!


Its all a bit of a joke now:

  • David Davis wants an end date on the back stop, which means it's not a back stop.
  • Without a back stop there will unlikely be an agreement.
  • Without an agreement, a Hard Brexit is likely.
  • The vast Majority in the Commons do not want a Hard Brexit
  • The public did not vote for a Hard Brexit - we were promised something very different
  • The Government has promised that parliament will be able to vote on the deal, but it increasingly seems there will not be one to vote on
  • We just keep going around and around, meanwhile time is running out.

The public need to be asked what they want.

Hard Brexit or SM/CU?
SM/CU or EU?

Hard Brexit = Hard border in Ireland, lose freedom of movement, lose all existing trade deals, can negotiate new UK only trade deals, estimated cost up to £1.25 billion a week
SM/CU = No Hard Border in Ireland, retain freedom of movement, retain all EU trade deals, no UK only trade deals, no or little say in policy, estimated cost up to £262 million a week
EU = No Hard Border in Ireland, retain freedom of movement, retain all EU trade deals, no UK only trade deals, retain a democratic say in policy, current net cost of £154 million per week
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:32 pm

Barnier : "Backstop means backstop!" :P
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:52 pm

Olddog wrote:
Barnier : "Backstop means backstop!" :P


You just got to love this guy in the end, don't you?

Brexit not only became the best pro Europe PR campaign ever throughout the rest of the continent, it also provides for constant hilarious soundbites which bite back at campaign promisses and pre-election grandstanding by British politicians: hybris sure is an embarrassing affair once it's over. Barnier will regularly make them eat humble pie till they're fully stuffed till the tip of their nose with it!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:24 pm

Richard28 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
The British government has finally published their backstop solution to the NI/EI problem, and it's another humiliating roll over!


Its all a bit of a joke now:

  • David Davis wants an end date on the back stop, which means it's not a back stop.
  • Without a back stop there will unlikely be an agreement.
  • Without an agreement, a Hard Brexit is likely.
  • The vast Majority in the Commons do not want a Hard Brexit
  • The public did not vote for a Hard Brexit - we were promised something very different
  • The Government has promised that parliament will be able to vote on the deal, but it increasingly seems there will not be one to vote on
  • We just keep going around and around, meanwhile time is running out.

The public need to be asked what they want.

Hard Brexit or SM/CU?
SM/CU or EU?

Hard Brexit = Hard border in Ireland, lose freedom of movement, lose all existing trade deals, can negotiate new UK only trade deals, estimated cost up to £1.25 billion a week
SM/CU = No Hard Border in Ireland, retain freedom of movement, retain all EU trade deals, no UK only trade deals, no or little say in policy, estimated cost up to £262 million a week
EU = No Hard Border in Ireland, retain freedom of movement, retain all EU trade deals, no UK only trade deals, retain a democratic say in policy, current net cost of £154 million per week


Well I do agree with some of what you have said and it is true, I have to ask however, what were we promised instead of a hard brexit?
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:06 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Well I do agree with some of what you have said and it is true, I have to ask however, what were we promised instead of a hard brexit?


£350m a week to the NHS for starters, the "easiest deal ever" with the EU, no short term economic disruption, no damage to EU trade....
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:25 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Well I do agree with some of what you have said and it is true, I have to ask however, what were we promised instead of a hard brexit?


£350m a week to the NHS for starters, the "easiest deal ever" with the EU, no short term economic disruption, no damage to EU trade....


And what of project fears financial predictions out by over £100 billion? I think that beats any £350m big red bus claims. 500,000 unemployment increase was another. house prices collapse? Wrong again.
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JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:26 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Well I do agree with some of what you have said and it is true, I have to ask however, what were we promised instead of a hard brexit?


£350m a week to the NHS for starters, the "easiest deal ever" with the EU, no short term economic disruption, no damage to EU trade....


And what of project fears financial predictions out by over £100 billion? I think that beats any £350m big red bus claims. 500,000 unemployment increase was another. house prices collapse? Wrong again.


Which may well turn out to be true. Brexit hasn't happened yet.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:29 pm

Parliament must urgently take this matter out of the hands of government and firmly dictate the exact terms for the Brexit negotiations to be conducted under, because clearly this government has lost all sense of realism as to what is technically, legally and politically possible: it has basically been negotiating with itself ever since article 50 got triggered by them, trying to square the circle it has drawn around itself with all the incompatible red lines nobody actually voted on in the referendum.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:30 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Parliament must urgently take this matter out of the hands of government and firmly dictate the exact terms for the Brexit negotiations to be conducted under, because clearly this government has lost all sense of realism as to what is technically, legally and politically possible: it has basically been negotiating with itself only for as ling as article 50 was triggered by them, trying to square the circle it has drawn around itself with all the incompatible red lines nobody actually voted on in the referendum.


And you think the Labour party would know what to do? No chance.
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Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:32 pm

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:

£350m a week to the NHS for starters, the "easiest deal ever" with the EU, no short term economic disruption, no damage to EU trade....


And what of project fears financial predictions out by over £100 billion? I think that beats any £350m big red bus claims. 500,000 unemployment increase was another. house prices collapse? Wrong again.


Which may well turn out to be true. Brexit hasn't happened yet.


Well on that principal we can still ignore the £350 million claim for a while. Brexit hasn't happened yet.
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sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:35 pm

Maybe next time, the governing party could actually bother to come up with a realistic plan on what to do next, BEFORE calling an IN/OUT referendum? ;)
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:12 pm

Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

And what of project fears financial predictions out by over £100 billion? I think that beats any £350m big red bus claims. 500,000 unemployment increase was another. house prices collapse? Wrong again.


Which may well turn out to be true. Brexit hasn't happened yet.


Well on that principal we can still ignore the £350 million claim for a while. Brexit hasn't happened yet.


Since the UK will be paying into the EU budget until 2021 at the very least, sure.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:15 pm

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Which may well turn out to be true. Brexit hasn't happened yet.


Well on that principal we can still ignore the £350 million claim for a while. Brexit hasn't happened yet.


Since the UK will be paying into the EU budget until 2021 at the very least, sure.


That's good then, at least we can agree on something.
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tommy1808
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:19 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Well I do agree with some of what you have said and it is true, I have to ask however, what were we promised instead of a hard brexit?


£350m a week to the NHS for starters, the "easiest deal ever" with the EU, no short term economic disruption, no damage to EU trade....


And what of project fears financial predictions out by over £100 billion?


Richard28 wrote:
Hard Brexit = Hard border in Ireland, lose freedom of movement, lose all existing trade deals, can negotiate new UK only trade deals, estimated cost up to £1.25 billion a week


That adds up to 100 billion quite quickly.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:29 pm

Can't help but wonder: where would we be if Gove hadn't stabbed Johnson in the back in June 2016?

Could it prove to be the defining moment?
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:37 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:

£350m a week to the NHS for starters, the "easiest deal ever" with the EU, no short term economic disruption, no damage to EU trade....


And what of project fears financial predictions out by over £100 billion?


Richard28 wrote:
Hard Brexit = Hard border in Ireland, lose freedom of movement, lose all existing trade deals, can negotiate new UK only trade deals, estimated cost up to £1.25 billion a week


That adds up to 100 billion quite quickly.

Best regards
Thomas


Then add to this the drop in the value in sterling after the referendum and the drop in growth of UK GDP.

The costs are massive.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:04 pm

Richard28 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

And what of project fears financial predictions out by over £100 billion?


Richard28 wrote:
Hard Brexit = Hard border in Ireland, lose freedom of movement, lose all existing trade deals, can negotiate new UK only trade deals, estimated cost up to £1.25 billion a week


That adds up to 100 billion quite quickly.

Best regards
Thomas


Then add to this the drop in the value in sterling after the referendum and the drop in growth of UK GDP.

The costs are massive.


Not sure you can add those considering :

A. Low sterling boosts exports and tourism. But more importantly we know currencies fluctuate all the time. The pound isn't the only currency in the world that can lose and gain value. I'm not quite sure how a drop in the pound contributes to this cost considering we can sell more goods at lower cost.

B. We're not in recession and we have had lower economic growth while still inside the EU and even been in recession while inside the EU.

If we go into recession after 31 March 2019 or maybe even after we have transitioned in 2021, I will retract my claims.
Last edited by Arion640 on Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Brexit - It’s time to take back control
 
Arion640
Posts: 1866
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:07 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:

£350m a week to the NHS for starters, the "easiest deal ever" with the EU, no short term economic disruption, no damage to EU trade....


And what of project fears financial predictions out by over £100 billion?


Richard28 wrote:
Hard Brexit = Hard border in Ireland, lose freedom of movement, lose all existing trade deals, can negotiate new UK only trade deals, estimated cost up to £1.25 billion a week


That adds up to 100 billion quite quickly.

Best regards
Thomas


Already been proven by multiple media outlets this is likley to be a false claim.
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Brexit - It’s time to take back control
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:55 pm

Arion640 wrote:

Already been proven by multiple media outlets this is likley to be a false claim.


No it has not been proven to be false. It is the governments (you know, the very people who are trying to do this crazy Brexit?) very own forecast (that they fought tooth and nail to try and hide from us).

Arion640 wrote:
A. Low sterling boosts exports and tourism. But more importantly we know currencies fluctuate all the time. The pound isn't the only currency in the world that can lose and gain value. I'm not quite sure how a drop in the pound contributes to this cost considering we can sell more goods at lower cost.


More crazy Brexit logic.

Its like saying that I did really well at selling my house by knocking £100k off the asking price. Of course you sell more, but that doesn't discount you are getting much less back in the transaction.

And just because things fluctuate in value means we don't lose anything? in the future it may come back, or get worse (quite possibly worse initially on no deal/WTO terms) but what happens in the future does not affect that you have lost value today.

Arion640 wrote:
B. We're not in recession and we have had lower economic growth while still inside the EU and even been in recession while inside the EU.


Who even mentioned recession?

Of course we have had recessions in the EU, we've been in it 40 years, but just because we were in it does not mean the recession was because of it.

The last recession was called the "Global Financial Crisis" and was sparked by packaging of sub-prime debt in the US initially. Nothing to do with the EU initially, who actually put in place very sensible rules and solvency tests to protect the banking sector from a repeat of this crisis.

The current drop in growth of UK GDP was a s a direct consequence of the Brexit process - the drop started at exactly the same time, we were near the top of the pack before, and now we are at the bottom in terms of growth.

The nonsense you guys create to self congratulate and try and justify this Brexit is sometimes just unbelievable.
 
vc10
Posts: 1412
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:15 pm

Good evening al
l,

I have just finished reading an article regarding the " Common Travel Agreement " [ CTA } between Ireland and the UK an agreement which stems from the 1920's , and which has gone through many changes in that time. Now this agreement must be quite important to both sides for it to last so long so much so that when the UK opted out of the Schengen treaty so did Ireland but with the proviso that Ireland stays in the CTA

With the departure of the UK from the EU the CTA would i am sure come to end , which would mean Ireland would have to join the Schengen Area
which might or might not worry the Irish, but anyway I have not heard it mentioned.

Richard28 you argue your case strongly and with some knowledge for staying in the EU , but is there any situation either now or in the future which would cause you to want the UK to leave the EU
 
JJJ
Posts: 3005
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:15 pm

Arion640 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

And what of project fears financial predictions out by over £100 billion?


Richard28 wrote:
Hard Brexit = Hard border in Ireland, lose freedom of movement, lose all existing trade deals, can negotiate new UK only trade deals, estimated cost up to £1.25 billion a week


That adds up to 100 billion quite quickly.

Best regards
Thomas


Already been proven by multiple media outlets this is likley to be a false claim.


Media could be more precise if the UK government made up their mind of what do they want.

Since everything points to the softest possible Brexit (EFTA and all) taking numbers from a worst case scenario jump-out-of-the-cliff hard Brexit forecast are bound to be exaggerated.

The negotiations are proceeding exactly like Remain said so at the very least that's 1-0 for Remain
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:25 pm

vc10 wrote:
With the departure of the UK from the EU the CTA would i am sure come to end , which would mean Ireland would have to join the Schengen Area
which might or might not worry the Irish, but anyway I have not heard it mentioned.


The Republic of Ireland (ROI) did not join Schengen to honour the existing CTA , as it was the UK did not want to be part of the Schengen area (not the ROI), So the ROI in effect made this sacrifice on the UK's behalf.

The Common Travel Area is set to continue post Brexit - this is an inherent part of the Good Friday agreement. ROI has no current plans to join Schengen.

However if a hard border was put in place and the Good Friday agreement is abolished then they could I guess then have that option if they wanted it.
 
vc10
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Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2001 4:13 am

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:48 pm

]

The Republic of Ireland (ROI) did not join Schengen to honour the existing CTA , as it was the UK did not want to be part of the Schengen area (not the ROI), So the ROI in effect made this sacrifice on the UK's behalf.

The Common Travel Area is set to continue post Brexit - this is an inherent part of the Good Friday agreement. ROI has no current plans to join Schengen.

However if a hard border was put in place and the Good Friday agreement is abolished then they could I guess then have that option if they wanted it.[/quote]



Well that is your interpretation of the events, but for the ROI to do anything for the benefit of the UK is pushing things a bit far. In fact the Irish government has altered the terms of the CTA many times during it's history .During WW2 they suspended it and during the 1960s when the UK was taking a large number of immigrants from India and the Caribbean the Irish government imposed a ruling that only UK Citizens who were actually born in the UK could travel to Ireland visa free..

However everybody has a different version of events , but you did not answer the 2nd part of my question
Last edited by vc10 on Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:52 pm

vc10 wrote:
Richard28 you argue your case strongly and with some knowledge for staying in the EU , but is there any situation either now or in the future which would cause you to want the UK to leave the EU


Thanks for your kind words VC10, just because we have different views it does not mean they cannot get along :thumbsup:

That's a difficult question to answer as there are so many hypotheticals that could happen in the future and change ones stance.

At the moment the EU is not perfect, far from it, so I am not blinkered to this, however for me leaving the EU simply causes far more problems than it solves.

The main thing for me is how the EU has pulled together a continent that has historically all been at war with each other to help bring a lasting peace - that extends both to national wars and domestically with things like ETA, 17N and IRA now, hopefully, things of the past.

The argument is too often categorised as left vs right - I believe in market economics and capitalism (I am a chartered professional and fellow within the financial sector), so I'm definitely not from the left side of the field.

The fact the countries within the EU have a veto means that things within the EU take time to achieve, but that is a side product of democracy. The structure and process should ensure that the EU stays on track, but I guess the main threat is that it cannot be nimble to respond things quickly, which is perhaps one of the threats.

The euro currency (and national debt structure) also has many problems as well, and has started to cause a north/south divide within the EU, but of course the UK was not part of the euro, so we were well placed within the EU on these grounds, but is an issue the EU needs to address. It is also not helped by enforcing new EU members to join the euro - the two things should be kept apart.

Immigration and control fo the external EU border is also an issue but very difficult through geographical and political reasons. A centralised EU force/military might be a good way forward for this to help share the burden (although international foreign policy and aid are perhaps more effective - but these are mainly at national level and not EU).

So for me the main reason to change view would be if the EU started in any way to become aggressive in any military way either internally or externally, or if it gave up the principles of its freedoms in favour of controls. Both unlikely, but I guess they would be the ones.
 
vc10
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:21 pm

Richard28 , Thanks for he well thought out and well presented reply and many of the things you state about the EU I would agree with, but at the end you state you might want to leave if the EU adopted an aggressive attitude, well sad to say if that happened it would be too late as the UK would not be allowed to leave then
I am not sure how old you are but being 74 myself I was born in ww2 and lived during the post war years and believe me it wasnot the common market/EU that stopped the European Countries going to war , but rather that the countries were all broke, their industries ruined,.their populations were weary after two world wars and they were all dependant on the country with the money to help them recover and that was the USA.

There is a lot of good in some of the aims of the EU and if the politicians, who are desperate to remembered for doing something great, just left the nations to trade and set some common trading rules over the decades the populations would slowly come together, but no the EU politicians push and push some more even if a large section of their population do not want to proceed so fast

So in the UK there is a large part of the population who do not like the speed at which the integration is going and and could not slow it down, so when given the opportunity they voted to leave
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:51 pm

vc10 wrote:
I am not sure how old you are but being 74 myself I was born in ww2 and lived during the post war years and believe me it wasnot the common market/EU that stopped the European Countries going to war , but rather that the countries were all broke, their industries ruined,.their populations were weary after two world wars and they were all dependant on the country with the money to help them recover and that was the USA.


You are right that the USA helped in this, the Marshall plan being a prime example, however I would contest that the EU countries working together for common goals has given what were bitter enemies common ground. There are other reasons too, such as the United Nations, however the EU has paid a part in the peace process - even receiving the Nobel Peace prize in 2012.

vc10 wrote:
There is a lot of good in some of the aims of the EU and if the politicians, who are desperate to remembered for doing something great, just left the nations to trade and set some common trading rules over the decades the populations would slowly come together, but no the EU politicians push and push some more even if a large section of their population do not want to proceed so fast


This is true....

vc10 wrote:
So in the UK there is a large part of the population who do not like the speed at which the integration is going and and could not slow it down, so when given the opportunity they voted to leave


however the UK has slowed the EU down, much to Europes frustration over the years. It must be remembered that the UK has a veto on policy within the EU (as has every member) so if the UK does not want to do it it doesn't happen.

There is of course horse trading that goes on, and the UK lets certain EU rules/laws go through for what it perceives the greater good, but that is the decision of the UK government and its elected MP's and MEP's rather than the EU itself.

The UK population has a say in these matters by participating in elections for MP's and MEP's (and with proportional representation for MEPs minorities do get heard). Leaving the EU is akin to throwing the toys out of the pram, it is not addressing the problem and we lose a lot of toys in the process.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 2613
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:00 pm

vc10 wrote:
There is a lot of good in some of the aims of the EU and if the politicians, who are desperate to remembered for doing something great, just left the nations to trade and set some common trading rules over the decades the populations would slowly come together, but no the EU politicians push and push some more, even if a large section of their population do not want to proceed so fast.


I'd be interested in knowing exactly which aspect of the EU beyond the Common trading platform the UK has had to adopt against its will?
The common trading rules are essentially the Customs Union and the Single Market with its 4 freedoms: as such the EU forms a unique Free Trade Zone in the sense it not only covers all of the goods like a normal FTA does, but also all services and for that reason also people, hence the reason the freedoms will never be separated from each other, like the Brexiteers wanted and claimed would be possible: they wanted full SM membership minus the freedom of movement.

But other than membership of the CU and the SM (which ironically is now exactly what the UK proposes as backstop solution for the whole of the UK?), all of the additional features which the EU started to offer to its members as from the 1990s and which turn it into a sort of (con)federal state structure, are on an opt-in basis for its current members (whereas they are part of the 'acquis' for new members), so the UK had always had the freedom to opt out of Schengen, the euro, the military command structure, europol (although ironically the UK formally joined it AFTER the Brexit referendum, only to be kicked out against its will again upon Brexit?!).

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