tommy1808
Posts: 7873
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:37 pm

CCGPV wrote:
Yes having normal elections is fine but the people calling for a "re-do" is dangerous. Delaying the action until the next election is setting a bad precedent too.


That depends, if only the people voting remain wanted a 2nd go, you'd have a point. But this is a situation where the overwhelming majority of UK citizens wanted to stay in the common market, some 70% or so, but only the hard Brexit minority gets what they want, and many people that did vote "leave" are saying "hey, this is not what I voted for". So, a bit different from just redoing votes until you get the result you want, this would be more a new vote along the lines of "is this what you wanted in 2016?" sorta thing.
How democratic would it be not to have a vote, when you pretty much know what you've negotiated is not what majority people voted for? You know, 350 mil per week to the NHS, no free movement of people, but free access to the common market, super easy trade deals that are much better than the EU's and such.
But I agree that it should be a rare exception and not the rule, and only for stuff that it is too long term for voters to interfere via other elections.

Will Brexit be done by 2022?


Schedule says so, but the real question probably is "will the UK government have a negotiating position by 2022?".

Richard28 wrote:
Democracy does not stand still - a vote on the outcome of negotiations will let the country confirm if this is actually what they want.


Yup, voting is voting, not signing a suicide pact with blood.

Best regards
Thomas
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Olddog
Topic Author
Posts: 619
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:09 pm

Anyway, whatever the UK does, it will be weaker than before the referendum.

If they go for Brexit they will need at least some years to rebuild trade deals with the world.

If they decide to cancel Brexit, good luck for the next EU negotiation and the usual blackmail attempt : give me this opt-out or we leave....
 
Arion640
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:25 pm

Olddog wrote:
Anyway, whatever the UK does, it will be weaker than before the referendum.

If they go for Brexit they will need at least some years to rebuild trade deals with the world.

If they decide to cancel Brexit, good luck for the next EU negotiation and the usual blackmail attempt : give me this opt-out or we leave....


To be fair, your 3rd paragraph would put the UK in a prime position as the EU would obviously want the UKs budget contribution.
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Olddog
Topic Author
Posts: 619
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:58 pm

Arion640 wrote:
To be fair, your 3rd paragraph would put the UK in a prime position as the EU would obviously want the UKs budget contribution.


That usual myth :) The EU will beg for the UK contribution as soon as they understand why the EU need more the UK than the opposite....
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1502
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:10 pm

CCGPV wrote:
.
What I worry about is why this one? I don't recall the British ever demanding a re-do for any other election. Why this one time are we talking about a re-do? I get that its important but so are all elections. Is not setting a precedence of redoing an unpopular election a bad thing? It seems like there's a lot of people trying to stop Brexit because its just not what they want even though the majority voted for it after a long campaign.

Am I overthinking this?


Because of the totality of the impact. Everyone is going to feel the effect - more so than most elections. Elections generally don't have simmilarly unpredictable or disruptive outcomes. I think all sides agree that Brexit will bring significant change (good or bad). As the real consequences become clear, there is merit to asking a question about the deal again.

As for redoing "unpopular" votes, what's the issue? If the majority knows what it wants, no matter how often you redo an election, you will end up with the same result.

Unless a lot of folk have changed their minds. Which begs the question: why would they? New information? And why should that not be reflected?

Opposing referenda because they might overturn a previous result raises questions about the validity of the initial result.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1502
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:16 pm

Olddog wrote:

That usual myth :) The EU will beg for the UK contribution as soon as they understand why the EU need more the UK than the opposite....


Wait till the US, China, India etc come to the realization that they need a trade deal with post-Brexit UK more than post-Brexit UK needs a trade deal with them.

Bet they'll be rolling out concessions in no time.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:39 am

More bad news for the UK economy reported today on Sky News, as a consequence of a possible Hard Brexit.

https://news.sky.com/story/european-bus ... t-11395908

European businesses are being advised where they manfufacture goods for export to consider using non UK parts instead.

This is not sour grapes on the EU's part, but a legal obligation to ensure their goods meet minimum thresholds for EU sourced parts for compliance with "Rules of Origin" in their external trade agreements.

So its not a case of "they need us more than we need them", its more "they cannot for legal reasons buy certain UK parts"

Not a good day for UK manfuacturing.... but then some experts had warned us about this a long long time ago....
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:48 am

Richard28 wrote:
Not a good day for UK manfuacturing.... but then some experts had warned us about this a long long time ago....


Same problem from the other side as well, much of the trade between continent and the UK is parts for assembly in the UK, good luck being price competitive if you have to make your cable harnesses in the UK with UK wages.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:04 am

Richard28 wrote:
More bad news for the UK economy reported today on Sky News, as a consequence of a possible Hard Brexit.

https://news.sky.com/story/european-bus ... t-11395908

European businesses are being advised where they manfufacture goods for export to consider using non UK parts instead.

This is not sour grapes on the EU's part, but a legal obligation to ensure their goods meet minimum thresholds for EU sourced parts for compliance with "Rules of Origin" in their external trade agreements.

So its not a case of "they need us more than we need them", its more "they cannot for legal reasons buy certain UK parts"

Not a good day for UK manfuacturing.... but then some experts had warned us about this a long long time ago....


I love how you completely do not mention how much the UK buys from the EU. A one sided story again.

Meanwhile, the worlds greatest currency bounces back: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.expr ... g-news/amp

Little bit in there about manufacturing also.
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Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:08 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Not a good day for UK manfuacturing.... but then some experts had warned us about this a long long time ago....


Same problem from the other side as well, much of the trade between continent and the UK is parts for assembly in the UK, good luck being price competitive if you have to make your cable harnesses in the UK with UK wages.

best regards
Thomas


UK Wages? There's not a lot of difference in wage levels between North Western european countries. Eg UK, Germany france etc etc. Are you suggesting countries should be expoliting cheap labour in Poland? Not a good way to go about things at all.
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No CONC sadly.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:16 am

Arion640 wrote:
UK Wages? There's not a lot of difference in wage levels between North Western european countries. Eg UK, Germany france etc etc. Are you suggesting countries should be expoliting cheap labour in Poland? Not a good way to go about things at all.


Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania are the sh*t for those items. And yes, companies should "exploit" cheap labor in other countries. Due to freedom of movement, wages raise all by themselves to be more homogeneous.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:20 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
UK Wages? There's not a lot of difference in wage levels between North Western european countries. Eg UK, Germany france etc etc. Are you suggesting countries should be expoliting cheap labour in Poland? Not a good way to go about things at all.


Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania are the sh*t for those items. And yes, companies should "exploit" cheap labor in other countries. Due to freedom of movement, wages raise all by themselves to be more homogeneous.

best regards
Thomas


Utter nonsense.
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No CONC sadly.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:49 am

Arion640 wrote:
Utter nonsense.


Well, no surprise that you´d say that. But it is the very reason why standard of living is roughly equalized in the EU after a few decades of membership. If Volkswagen Portugal didn´t raise its workers pay all the freaking time, their highly skilled workers would just go and apply in an EU country with higher wages.

Just because you think it is utter nonsense doesn´t make it so. Wages in lower wage EU countries rise faster than in higher wage ones. The 10 lowest wage EU countries had on average a 15.56% raise in wages between 2014 and 2017, the EU average is just 2.02%, Top 18 is pretty much +/- 0, or +1.02% if you exclude the UK. Half of the top 18, Finland, Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, France, Belgium, Spain, Slovenia and Poland, have seen increases of 7,25%, just half of what the bottom 10 have seen. The other 9 have scored an average of -7,94% with or -5,99% w/o the UK.

Source: Eurostat Net-incomes 2014 2017 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/labour ... s/database

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:48 am

Arion640 wrote:

I love how you completely do not mention how much the UK buys from the EU. A one sided story again.


It is a largely one sided story though, as the EU market is massive in comparison to the UK, so we lose much more than we gain.

And as pointed out, through UK employment costs and without free movement of labour, the costs of manufacture (assuming we have the domestic manufacturing capability which is another point) in the UK will likely increase cost, increasing prices for the UK and export consumer.

Also remember that on leaving the EU under a Hard Brexit we would have, on day one, very possibly zero trade deals. As such the UK would be complying with rules of orign under WTO rules rather than any specific trade agreements (65+ of them) that apply to Europe and as referenced in the article I linked to.

Arion640 wrote:
Meanwhile, the worlds greatest currency bounces back: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.expr ... g-news/amp

Sterling against the Euro is still 10.2% down on its value before the referendum, and 19.7% down on its value from its peak 7 months prior to that.

Sterling rises in value every time soft Brexit looks more likely, should there be an upset in the commons next week this will have a large affect on the price of Sterling. A Hard Brexit meanwhile, should it happen, will drop its value further.

Arion640 wrote:
Utter nonsense.


Come on, its pretty much an accepted economically that distribution of wealth and employment raises the standard of living. The EU has helped in this regard to increase the wages of many EU states, in particular in the East.

Image
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:11 am

Shows why Brexit must happen. The British wealth is being shipped of to Eastern Europe. #Brexitnow
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:21 am

Arion640 wrote:

3. Migrant workers have driven down the wages for working class indviduals. Its a fact, like you have just proven. And 200,000 people still flooded into Britain last year despite brexit. Migration is down but not decreasing by a large margin.
.


Because of non-EU migrants. The kind of immigration the UK could control and chose not to. Why do you think your politicians will do it now?

Mostly because all business leaders are on record saying they need more, not less, immigrants.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:22 am

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

I love how you completely do not mention how much the UK buys from the EU. A one sided story again.


It is a largely one sided story though, as the EU market is massive in comparison to the UK, so we lose much more than we gain.

And as pointed out, through UK employment costs and without free movement of labour, the costs of manufacture (assuming we have the domestic manufacturing capability which is another point) in the UK will likely increase cost, increasing prices for the UK and export consumer.

Also remember that on leaving the EU under a Hard Brexit we would have, on day one, very possibly zero trade deals. As such the UK would be complying with rules of orign under WTO rules rather than any specific trade agreements (65+ of them) that apply to Europe and as referenced in the article I linked to.

Arion640 wrote:
Meanwhile, the worlds greatest currency bounces back: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.expr ... g-news/amp

Sterling against the Euro is still 10.2% down on its value before the referendum, and 19.7% down on its value from its peak 7 months prior to that.

Sterling rises in value every time soft Brexit looks more likely, should there be an upset in the commons next week this will have a large affect on the price of Sterling. A Hard Brexit meanwhile, should it happen, will drop its value further.

Arion640 wrote:
Utter nonsense.


Come on, its pretty much an accepted economically that distribution of wealth and employment raises the standard of living. The EU has helped in this regard to increase the wages of many EU states, in particular in the East.

Image


Can't quote you indvidually because i'm on the mobile.

1. We buy more from the EU than we sell to them. Enough said. While we do have to sell goods to the EU, we buy many many more!

2. The EU has very few trade deals in place. Some, but very few.

3. Migrant workers have driven down the wages for working class indviduals. Its a fact, like you have just proven. And 200,000 people still flooded into Britain last year despite brexit. Migration is down but not decreasing by a large margin.

4. Sterling down helps exports. Exports you are saying will be a key pary of the stratergy incase of a hard Brexit.
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tommy1808
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:30 am

Arion640 wrote:
1. We buy more from the EU than we sell to them. Enough said. While we do have to sell goods to the EU, we buy many many more!


Useless metric, unless you know how much of each side is for domestic consumption vs. Re-export.

2. The EU has very few trade deals in place. Some, but very few.


Vastly more than the UK

3. Migrant workers have driven down the wages for working class indviduals. Its a fact, like you have just proven. And 200,000 people still flooded into Britain last year despite brexit. Migration is down but not decreasing by a large margin.


The non-eu immigrants are likely those that drive wages down, their number isn't shrinking.

[Quote4. Sterling down helps exports. Exports you are saying will be a key pary of the stratergy incase of a hard Brexit.[/quote]

Nice spin on a 20% pay cut for every one. You mean exploiting low wage UK workers that, can't more to other EU countries anymore, is part of the plan?

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:36 am

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

3. Migrant workers have driven down the wages for working class indviduals. Its a fact, like you have just proven. And 200,000 people still flooded into Britain last year despite brexit. Migration is down but not decreasing by a large margin.
.


Because of non-EU migrants. The kind of immigration the UK could control and chose not to. Why do you think your politicians will do it now?

Mostly because all business leaders are on record saying they need more, not less, immigrants.


That's just bad British government for you. still, i'm happy net migration is on the decrease even if it is a physcological brexit effect for now. A correction needed to happen and that's taking place.

Of course business leaders will say that, it's cheap labour. But this was a push back on that issue. If you listened to everything business leaders said you wouldn't be able to think for yourself.
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JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:36 am

Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

3. Migrant workers have driven down the wages for working class indviduals. Its a fact, like you have just proven. And 200,000 people still flooded into Britain last year despite brexit. Migration is down but not decreasing by a large margin.
.


Because of non-EU migrants. The kind of immigration the UK could control and chose not to. Why do you think your politicians will do it now?

Mostly because all business leaders are on record saying they need more, not less, immigrants.


That's just bad British government for you. still, i'm happy net migration is on the decrease even if it is a physcological brexit effect for now. A correction needed to happen and that's taking place.

Of course business leaders will say that, it's cheap labour. But this was a push back on that issue. If you listened to everything business leaders said you wouldn't be able to think for yourself.


Tory politicians are in those business leaders' pockets.

They didn't stop immigration then, and won't to it now. Othat than the psychological effect of Brexit (which is a minor issue on the grand scheme of things) EU workers are leaving because the pound has plunged and salaries in Poland, Romania, etc. are increasing. Suddenly living on a crummy shared appartment in Hackney looks even less attractive if you can be back in Warsaw or Bucharest where you get paid less, but pays for much more.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:43 am

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Because of non-EU migrants. The kind of immigration the UK could control and chose not to. Why do you think your politicians will do it now?

Mostly because all business leaders are on record saying they need more, not less, immigrants.


That's just bad British government for you. still, i'm happy net migration is on the decrease even if it is a physcological brexit effect for now. A correction needed to happen and that's taking place.

Of course business leaders will say that, it's cheap labour. But this was a push back on that issue. If you listened to everything business leaders said you wouldn't be able to think for yourself.


Tory politicians are in those business leaders' pockets.

They didn't stop immigration then, and won't to it now. Othat than the psychological effect of Brexit (which is a minor issue on the grand scheme of things) EU workers are leaving because the pound has plunged and salaries in Poland, Romania, etc. are increasing. Suddenly living on a crummy shared appartment in Hackney looks even less attractive if you can be back in Warsaw or Bucharest where you get paid less, but pays for much more.


The future EU target is supposed to be 50k a year, 100k a year is more likley and i could probably accept that.

The second part of your paragraph is absoloutley correct. Like i said, the correction is happening.
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:15 pm

Arion640 wrote:

2. The EU has very few trade deals in place. Some, but very few.



Your level of ignorance on this topic is showing again.

The following is a list of members of the European Economic Area, countries with Customs Unions, Association Agreements, Stabilisation Agreements, (Deep and Comprehensive) Free Trade Agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements:

Members of the EU27

Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden


EU deals currently in Place

Algeria
Andorra
Botswana (SADC)
Chile
Egypt
Faroe Islands
Georgia
Iceland
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Lesotho (SADC)
Mexico
Moldova
Morocco
Mozambique (SADC)
Namibia (SADC)
Norway
Palestinian Authority
San Marino
South Africa
South Korea
Swaziland (SADC)
Switzerland
Syria
Tunisia
Turkey


EU deals partially in place

Antigua and Barbuda (CARIFORUM)
Bahamas (CARIFORUM)
Barbados (CARIFORUM)
Belize (CARIFORUM)
Botswana (SADC)
Cameroon (Central Africa)
Canada
Colombia (with Ecuador and Peru)
Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)
Comoros (ESA)
Costa Rica (Central America)
Dominica (CARIFORUM)
Djibouti (ESA)
Dominican Republic (CARIFORUM)
Ecuador (with Colombia and Peru)
El Salvador (Central America)
Eritrea (ESA)
Ethiopia (ESA)
Grenada (CARIFORUM)
Guatemala (Central America)
Guyana (CARIFORUM)
Haiti (CARIFORUM)
Honduras (Central America)
Jamaica (CARIFORUM)
Madagascar, Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Zimbabwe (ESA)
Namibia (SADC)
Nicaragua (Central America)
Panama (Central America)
Madagascar (ESA)
Peru (with Colombia and Ecuador)
South Africa
St Kitts and Nevis (CARIFORUM)
St Lucia (CARIFORUM)
St Vincent and the Grenadines (CARIFORUM)
Sudan (ESA)
Suriname (CARIFORUM)
Trinidad and Tobago (CARIFORUM)
Zambia (ESA)


EU agreements made and pending implementation

Burundi (EAC)
Japan
Kenya (EAC)
Rwanda (EAC)
Singapore
Tanzania (EAC)
Uganda (EAC)
Vietnam


EU deals being updated

Chile
Mexico
Morocco
Tunisia


EU deals being neotiated

Argentina (Mercosur)
Australia (expected 2019)
Brazil (Mercosur)
China
India
Indonesia
Myanmar
New Zealand (expected 2019)
Paraguay (Mercosur)
Philippines
Thailand
United Arab Emirates (GCC)
United States
Uruguay (Mercosur)

Full break down of agreement types is here.

All of the above are reasons why staying in the Customs Union (retaining these deals) is a very good idea, rather than relying on the bluff from Liam Fox and his photocopier machine.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:35 pm

Arion640 wrote:

1. We buy more from the EU than we sell to them. Enough said. While we do have to sell goods to the EU, we buy many many more!



No, not "enough said".

Pay attention, I was referring to the relative size of the UK and EU27 area, not the value of trade between us, which is relevant to rules of origin status.

Based on 2017 GDP, in trillions:

  • EU27 : 17,531.503
  • UK : 2,624.529

The EU27 economy (i.e. post Brexit) is over 6 times bigger economy than the UK - it is a huge difference.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:40 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

1. We buy more from the EU than we sell to them. Enough said. While we do have to sell goods to the EU, we buy many many more!



No, not "enough said".

Pay attention, I was referring to the relative size of the UK and EU27 area, not the value of trade between us, which is relevant to rules of origin status.

Based on 2017 GDP, in trillions:

  • EU27 : 17,531.503
  • UK : 2,624.529

The EU27 economy (i.e. post Brexit) is over 6 times bigger economy than the UK - it is a huge difference.


I think your posts need to be clearer.
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:42 pm

Arion640 wrote:
3. Migrant workers have driven down the wages for working class indviduals. Its a fact, like you have just proven. And 200,000 people still flooded into Britain last year despite brexit. Migration is down but not decreasing by a large margin.


Will this change after Brexit?

As I asked before, why has the Government not declared any post Brexit immigration policy yet? strange isn't it?

Remember also:

  • The majority (over double) of current UK immigration is not from EU, where the government could have done something very easily for decades but have chosen not to (so this is not an EU specific issue)
  • Illegal immigration will also likely not change post Brexit
  • Depending on the rules and regulations imposed by the UK, it is possible that a larger black market may appear for jobs, especially if there is insufficient supply.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:42 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

2. The EU has very few trade deals in place. Some, but very few.



Your level of ignorance on this topic is showing again.

The following is a list of members of the European Economic Area, countries with Customs Unions, Association Agreements, Stabilisation Agreements, (Deep and Comprehensive) Free Trade Agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements:

Members of the EU27

Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden


EU deals currently in Place

Algeria
Andorra
Botswana (SADC)
Chile
Egypt
Faroe Islands
Georgia
Iceland
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Lesotho (SADC)
Mexico
Moldova
Morocco
Mozambique (SADC)
Namibia (SADC)
Norway
Palestinian Authority
San Marino
South Africa
South Korea
Swaziland (SADC)
Switzerland
Syria
Tunisia
Turkey


EU deals partially in place

Antigua and Barbuda (CARIFORUM)
Bahamas (CARIFORUM)
Barbados (CARIFORUM)
Belize (CARIFORUM)
Botswana (SADC)
Cameroon (Central Africa)
Canada
Colombia (with Ecuador and Peru)
Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)
Comoros (ESA)
Costa Rica (Central America)
Dominica (CARIFORUM)
Djibouti (ESA)
Dominican Republic (CARIFORUM)
Ecuador (with Colombia and Peru)
El Salvador (Central America)
Eritrea (ESA)
Ethiopia (ESA)
Grenada (CARIFORUM)
Guatemala (Central America)
Guyana (CARIFORUM)
Haiti (CARIFORUM)
Honduras (Central America)
Jamaica (CARIFORUM)
Madagascar, Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Zimbabwe (ESA)
Namibia (SADC)
Nicaragua (Central America)
Panama (Central America)
Madagascar (ESA)
Peru (with Colombia and Ecuador)
South Africa
St Kitts and Nevis (CARIFORUM)
St Lucia (CARIFORUM)
St Vincent and the Grenadines (CARIFORUM)
Sudan (ESA)
Suriname (CARIFORUM)
Trinidad and Tobago (CARIFORUM)
Zambia (ESA)


EU agreements made and pending implementation

Burundi (EAC)
Japan
Kenya (EAC)
Rwanda (EAC)
Singapore
Tanzania (EAC)
Uganda (EAC)
Vietnam


EU deals being updated

Chile
Mexico
Morocco
Tunisia


EU deals being neotiated

Argentina (Mercosur)
Australia (expected 2019)
Brazil (Mercosur)
China
India
Indonesia
Myanmar
New Zealand (expected 2019)
Paraguay (Mercosur)
Philippines
Thailand
United Arab Emirates (GCC)
United States
Uruguay (Mercosur)

Full break down of agreement types is here.

All of the above are reasons why staying in the Customs Union (retaining these deals) is a very good idea, rather than relying on the bluff from Liam Fox and his photocopier machine.


I think your level of ignorance is shown by chosing to ignore the refrendum vote.

Mods, please consider locking the thread, i don't think we should go down the road of personal attacks.
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:45 pm

Arion640 wrote:

4. Sterling down helps exports. Exports you are saying will be a key pary of the stratergy incase of a hard Brexit.


This is correct, but remember that by the same token it hurts imports and drives inflation, which increases the costs of living and further lessens the value of what we have.
 
Arion640
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:46 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

4. Sterling down helps exports. Exports you are saying will be a key pary of the stratergy incase of a hard Brexit.


This is correct, but remember that by the same token it hurts imports and drives inflation, which increases the costs of living and further lessens the value of what we have.


And thats when you raise the interest rate slow the economy down.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

No CONC sadly.
 
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Richard28
Posts: 2081
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:50 pm

Arion640 wrote:
I think your level of ignorance is shown by chosing to ignore the refrendum vote.

Mods, please consider locking the thread, i don't think we should go down the road of personal attacks.


I am fully aware of the referendum result, but in a democracy we should be able to debate things . This is why we have an official opposition in parliament.

There has been no personal attack, I have simply questioned your level of knowledge.

You post as if you have facts, and yet when I spend the time to give you an answer, instead of engaging and learning, you ask for the mods to close this debate?
 
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Richard28
Posts: 2081
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:52 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

4. Sterling down helps exports. Exports you are saying will be a key pary of the stratergy incase of a hard Brexit.


This is correct, but remember that by the same token it hurts imports and drives inflation, which increases the costs of living and further lessens the value of what we have.


And thats when you raise the interest rate slow the economy down.


.... which increases the cost of borrowing, reducing R&D and investment into the economy and in your own words "slow the economy down"

All these things are inter-related. A balance is always sought.
Last edited by Richard28 on Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
JJJ
Posts: 2827
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:54 pm

Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

That's just bad British government for you. still, i'm happy net migration is on the decrease even if it is a physcological brexit effect for now. A correction needed to happen and that's taking place.

Of course business leaders will say that, it's cheap labour. But this was a push back on that issue. If you listened to everything business leaders said you wouldn't be able to think for yourself.


Tory politicians are in those business leaders' pockets.

They didn't stop immigration then, and won't to it now. Othat than the psychological effect of Brexit (which is a minor issue on the grand scheme of things) EU workers are leaving because the pound has plunged and salaries in Poland, Romania, etc. are increasing. Suddenly living on a crummy shared appartment in Hackney looks even less attractive if you can be back in Warsaw or Bucharest where you get paid less, but pays for much more.


The future EU target is supposed to be 50k a year, 100k a year is more likley and i could probably accept that.

The second part of your paragraph is absoloutley correct. Like i said, the correction is happening.


The correction has been paid out of everyone's collective wallets, if you're paid or have assets denominated in pounds you've helped send those Polish plumbers back to Wroclaw by devaluating your salary and assets.

If you think that was a price worth paying, I know a lot of British who disagree. Some of whom voted Leave, by the way.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 7873
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:20 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Can you explain how i've devalued my salary and assets in more detail please..


The pound dropped. All UK made wages and products dropped with it, so we don´t notice that right away, but all exports become more expensive, driving inflation: you get less for your money.

10% currency devaluation or 10% wage cut for the whole country, have exactly the same consequences for your standard of living, but since the effect doesn´t hit over night, people usually don´t notice it for quite a while, or never consciously notice it.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Arion640
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:20 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:

This is correct, but remember that by the same token it hurts imports and drives inflation, which increases the costs of living and further lessens the value of what we have.


And thats when you raise the interest rate slow the economy down.


.... which increases the cost of borrowing, reducing R&D and investment into the economy and in your own words "slow the economy down"

All these things are inter-related. A balance is always sought.


Correct. But this isn't needed unless the economy is over heating. But it's not over heating and is unlikley to in the near future.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

No CONC sadly.
 
Arion640
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:22 pm

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Tory politicians are in those business leaders' pockets.

They didn't stop immigration then, and won't to it now. Othat than the psychological effect of Brexit (which is a minor issue on the grand scheme of things) EU workers are leaving because the pound has plunged and salaries in Poland, Romania, etc. are increasing. Suddenly living on a crummy shared appartment in Hackney looks even less attractive if you can be back in Warsaw or Bucharest where you get paid less, but pays for much more.


The future EU target is supposed to be 50k a year, 100k a year is more likley and i could probably accept that.

The second part of your paragraph is absoloutley correct. Like i said, the correction is happening.


The correction has been paid out of everyone's collective wallets, if you're paid or have assets denominated in pounds you've helped send those Polish plumbers back to Wroclaw by devaluating your salary and assets.

If you think that was a price worth paying, I know a lot of British who disagree. Some of whom voted Leave, by the way.


Can you explain how i've devalued my salary and assets in more detail please.

We're all aloud different views of what we want an outcome to be aren't we? The alternative is living in an Dictatorship.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

No CONC sadly.
 
JJJ
Posts: 2827
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:39 pm

Arion640 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

The future EU target is supposed to be 50k a year, 100k a year is more likley and i could probably accept that.

The second part of your paragraph is absoloutley correct. Like i said, the correction is happening.


The correction has been paid out of everyone's collective wallets, if you're paid or have assets denominated in pounds you've helped send those Polish plumbers back to Wroclaw by devaluating your salary and assets.

If you think that was a price worth paying, I know a lot of British who disagree. Some of whom voted Leave, by the way.


Can you explain how i've devalued my salary and assets in more detail please.

We're all aloud different views of what we want an outcome to be aren't we? The alternative is living in an Dictatorship.


Pound drop and extra inflation. It is less attractive to work and live in Britain now than it was pre-Brexit, so some people would rather go somewhere else.

A dictatorship is voting for something and not being allowed to change your mind. That's why there are regular elections, so you can send those who lied to you and made you promises they know couldn't bring back home.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 7873
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:45 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Can you explain how i've devalued my salary and assets in more detail please..


The pound dropped. All UK made wages and products dropped with it, so you don´t notice that right away, but all exports become more expensive, driving inflation: you get less for your money.

10% currency devaluation or 10% wage cut for the whole country, have exactly the same consequences for your standard of living, but since the effect doesn´t hit over night, people usually don´t notice it for quite a while, or never consciously notice it.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
tommy1808
Posts: 7873
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:58 pm

Arion640 wrote:
But we haven't seen any out of the ordinary inflation so it's not applicable..


as mentioned, those effects need time to ripple through the economy. That is why politicians pretend dropping currencies are somehow good, but wage cuts are not.

If you want to promote tourism and exports, a wage cut across the country would accomplish the same.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Arion640
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:00 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Can you explain how i've devalued my salary and assets in more detail please..


The pound dropped. All UK made wages and products dropped with it, so you don´t notice that right away, but all exports become more expensive, driving inflation: you get less for your money.

10% currency devaluation or 10% wage cut for the whole country, have exactly the same consequences for your standard of living, but since the effect doesn´t hit over night, people usually don´t notice it for quite a while, or never consciously notice it.

best regards
Thomas


I acknowkedge your point. But it does exports and inbound tourism a good turn. But we haven't seen any out of the ordinary inflation so it's not applicable. UK had a currency free fall when they disconnected from the ERM, we bounced back in time.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

No CONC sadly.
 
JJJ
Posts: 2827
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:18 pm

Arion640 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Can you explain how i've devalued my salary and assets in more detail please..


The pound dropped. All UK made wages and products dropped with it, so you don´t notice that right away, but all exports become more expensive, driving inflation: you get less for your money.

10% currency devaluation or 10% wage cut for the whole country, have exactly the same consequences for your standard of living, but since the effect doesn´t hit over night, people usually don´t notice it for quite a while, or never consciously notice it.

best regards
Thomas


I acknowkedge your point. But it does exports and inbound tourism a good turn. But we haven't seen any out of the ordinary inflation so it's not applicable. UK had a currency free fall when they disconnected from the ERM, we bounced back in time.


Well, the numbers are there. Of course it's not Zimbabwean inflation, but it's still a slow drip of disposable income.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 07986.html

You may not immediately notice also because of shrinkflation, the way some manufacturers keep the price but put less product in the package.
 
Arion640
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:39 pm

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

The pound dropped. All UK made wages and products dropped with it, so you don´t notice that right away, but all exports become more expensive, driving inflation: you get less for your money.

10% currency devaluation or 10% wage cut for the whole country, have exactly the same consequences for your standard of living, but since the effect doesn´t hit over night, people usually don´t notice it for quite a while, or never consciously notice it.

best regards
Thomas


I acknowkedge your point. But it does exports and inbound tourism a good turn. But we haven't seen any out of the ordinary inflation so it's not applicable. UK had a currency free fall when they disconnected from the ERM, we bounced back in time.


Well, the numbers are there. Of course it's not Zimbabwean inflation, but it's still a slow drip of disposable income.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 07986.html

You may not immediately notice also because of shrinkflation, the way some manufacturers keep the price but put less product in the package.


I've got the April 18 figures open. UK 2.4 pc , germany 2.2 pc, USA 2.5 pc. I don't think we have anything to worry about.
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No CONC sadly.
 
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Richard28
Posts: 2081
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:05 pm

Arion640 wrote:
I've got the April 18 figures open. UK 2.4 pc , germany 2.2 pc, USA 2.5 pc. I don't think we have anything to worry about.


UK rates are only slightly higher than the BOE 2.0% target, so currently not a huge issue - main current risks are movement of the pound and oil prices - both of which are volatile.

When you include the cost of housing the inflation figure is higher at 3.4% (RPI), so 1% higher than CPI which does not include these costs.

We must also remember the power of compounding. A useful inflation tool is here:

http://www.hl.co.uk/tools/calculators/i ... calculator

So for instance you would need £1,267 today to purchase the equivalent value of £1,000 of goods only 10 years ago (RPI measure)
 
Arion640
Posts: 1327
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:12 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I've got the April 18 figures open. UK 2.4 pc , germany 2.2 pc, USA 2.5 pc. I don't think we have anything to worry about.


UK rates are only slightly higher than the BOE 2.0% target, so currently not a huge issue - main current risks are movement of the pound and oil prices - both of which are volatile.

When you include the cost of housing the inflation figure is higher at 3.4% (RPI), so 1% higher than CPI which does not include these costs.

We must also remember the power of compounding. A useful inflation tool is here:

http://www.hl.co.uk/tools/calculators/i ... calculator

So for instance you would need £1,267 today to purchase the equivalent value of £1,000 of goods only 10 years ago (RPI measure)


Oil prices are going to provide bother all countries world wide.

Anyway thats all from me for today.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

No CONC sadly.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:16 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Oil prices are going to provide bother all countries world wide.


:checkmark: absolutely.
 
mmo
Posts: 1482
Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2013 3:04 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Arion640 wrote:

I think your level of ignorance is shown by chosing to ignore the refrendum vote..


You keep referring to the referendum vote (you might want to consider spell check) as it is the holy grail. You do know the referendum is non-binding don't you? So, at the end of the day, perhaps you might want to do some research. The construction of the vote was amateurish at best. A very complex decision was boiled down to in or out. How stupid is that, there was no thought given to the econsequences of what would happen, what would change and how it would change. I think, no matter what side you are on, after all the negotiating is completed, the citizens should be given a choice of what they want to do.

Mods...please keep the thread open.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:04 pm

mmo wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

I think your level of ignorance is shown by chosing to ignore the refrendum vote..


You keep referring to the referendum vote (you might want to consider spell check) as it is the holy grail. You do know the referendum is non-binding don't you? So, at the end of the day, perhaps you might want to do some research. The construction of the vote was amateurish at best. A very complex decision was boiled down to in or out. How stupid is that, there was no thought given to the econsequences of what would happen, what would change and how it would change. I think, no matter what side you are on, after all the negotiating is completed, the citizens should be given a choice of what they want to do.

Mods...please keep the thread open.


I'm quite a busy person during working hours so it does involve my typing rather fast which leads to one or two spelling errors.

But i'll stop you there, so you think because its legal status is non binding it shouldn't be implemented? The government said from the start they would implement the decision of the people. So that's how its going to be. You can kick and scream all you want. I find it hilarious and laugh to myself when people get wound up because of what someone has said on an internet forum. Your definetly one of those people.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

No CONC sadly.
 
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Richard28
Posts: 2081
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:12 pm

Arion640 wrote:
But i'll stop you there, so you think because its legal status is non binding it shouldn't be implemented? The government said from the start they would implement the decision of the people.


But what is the will of the people?

EEA?
EFTA?
CU?
EMA?
Euratom?
Etc... etc....

The referendum only asked about EU. Everything else has been Theresa Mays interpretation of the result - it has not been proven to be the will of the people.

And current polls show that the path being taken is not the popular one.
 
Arion640
Posts: 1327
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:22 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
But i'll stop you there, so you think because its legal status is non binding it shouldn't be implemented? The government said from the start they would implement the decision of the people.


But what is the will of the people?

EEA?
EFTA?
CU?
EMA?
Euratom?
Etc... etc....

The referendum only asked about EU. Everything else has been Theresa Mays interpretation of the result - it has not been proven to be the will of the people.

And current polls show that the path being taken is not the popular one.


I'll ask you a question for a change. Obviously you want Britain to stay in the EU. Obviously that can't happen in the current form. So what would you like to see instead? We spend a lot of time discussing what i think so i'd like to know what you think instead for a change.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

No CONC sadly.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 6687
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:23 pm

In the end it would be fully democratic to understand the Brexit vote as the wish to start negotiatiing a deal to leave the EU, it would also be democratic to let the population finally decide about the deal in the end.
 
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Richard28
Posts: 2081
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:40 pm

Arion640 wrote:
I'll ask you a question for a change. Obviously you want Britain to stay in the EU. Obviously that can't happen in the current form. So what would you like to see instead? We spend a lot of time discussing what i think so i'd like to know what you think instead for a change.


For me staying in the customs union is a no brainer, as it helps maintain trade deals with the various other countries I listed earlier today, and saves big headaches and costs for our borders and trade.

The Single market also seems like a sensible way forward. Theresa May talks of equivalence going forward... if you are trying do this, then why not go the whole hog and stay in the SM to retain the full advantages including trade in services, which is 80% of our economy.

The CU/SM combination would also solve the good Friday/Northern Ireland question.

The UK can then enact rules to ensure migrants have adequate finances, and health insurance in place helping to protect the NHS.

I would still counter that staying in the EU would be better, but I think this outcome would be a reasonable compromise for me.
 
Olddog
Topic Author
Posts: 619
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:11 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
But i'll stop you there, so you think because its legal status is non binding it shouldn't be implemented? The government said from the start they would implement the decision of the people.


But what is the will of the people?

EEA?
EFTA?
CU?
EMA?
Euratom?
Etc... etc....

The referendum only asked about EU. Everything else has been Theresa Mays interpretation of the result - it has not been proven to be the will of the people.

And current polls show that the path being taken is not the popular one.


And it was even not the TM interpretation. She parroted what the legatum institute fed her....

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