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JJJ
Posts: 4543
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:35 pm

sevenair wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Yeah. Disaster. Rapture. Repent.

Just your ‘project no fear’ in motion.

Let us know when there are 19 developed country trade deals, including a service industry FTA with most of them and no border controls.... then I will accept your gloats and happily concede.

Until that point keep thinking about the upcoming commons CU vote and the Irish question....!


Yes but as a service based country there's no meaningful market for services. I can buy a German car but can't buy German car insurance. I can only buy UK travel insurance and can't by private healthcare from non-UK countries (God forbid I share a ward with the peasants).


45% of British exports are services.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:41 pm

How much of those are B2B? We are told by the remoaners that we don't make anything. So what's the remaining 55%? There's no meaningful single market for consumer services. I can buy a car built in Barcelona but only with British finance, I can only insure it using a British provider, I can't buy a phone service for OnStar from Paris nor an insurance service based out of Madrid. I can only use a British mortgage company and I've never seen an Italian provider show up for life assurance.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:51 pm

sevenair wrote:
How much of those are B2B? We are told by the remoaners that we don't make anything. So what's the remaining 55%? There's no meaningful single market for consumer services. I can buy a car built in Barcelona but only with British finance, I can only insure it using a British provider, I can't buy a phone service for OnStar from Paris nor an insurance service based out of Madrid. I can only use a British mortgage company and I've never seen an Italian provider show up for life assurance.


Irrelevant. We're talking trade deals between countries not whether you can buy Czech insurance on your car.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:06 pm

Actually, thanks to the SM you could theoretically get a foreign car insurance because the SM covers not just GOODS, but also SERVICES. There might not be any non-British insurer active on the UK market, but that's purely out of economic/competitive reasons, not out of legal ones!
Foreign SERVICE providers are actually quite numerous throughout the EU: in banking, insurance, telecom, transportation... you name it.

By leaving the SM and reverting to a comprehensive FTA like the UK government is willing to do, the relationship between the EU and the UK will be losing the entire SERVICES part, whereas the GOODS part will likely stay largely the same (if the Irish border issue is sorted out that is, once again by the UK accepting the EU's backstop solution... or staying in the CU).

As JJJ rightfully said: for a SERVICE based economy like the British one, losing access for its services is not exactly a good trading situation to be in, so SERVICES should best be included too...

The problem is, there does not exist a single FTA anywhere in the world which includes SERVICES next to GOODS, so the UK-EU trade deal would have to be truely unique and unprecedented: understandably the UK is pushing very hard for such a deal based on the fact that is is nothing but a continuation of the present situation, but the EU isn't even remotely interested in it, because it isn't exporting much services to the UK anyway (hence you aren't aware you could take foreign insurance right now), so the loss of cutting SERVICES out from the future trade relationship the UK will have with the EU vs the current one is extremely one sided.... and the UK simply does not have the luxury not to accept whatever restricted FTA the EU does offer, or it risks the other half of its export to the EU, as well as the inability to strike trade deals with third countries later in the absence of a UK-EU agreement! The 'no deal is better than a bad deal' has been called bluff by the fact the UK is happily willing to fork out well over £39bn in cash for a transitional period of just 21 short months... without any whistling even. ;)

When you thought the current exit negotiations were rather painfull for the UK so far, wait till the day after Brexit, when the trade negotiations are going to start: unskilled Britain is going to be playing a game of strip poker with just a single sock on against a bunch of professional poker players: guess who's going to come out naked after a few rounds?
 
rutankrd
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:48 am

Sevenair

Clearly you have now decloaked your ignorance and lack of understanding of what the depth and significance of the Financial services sectors to the UK economy really is.

1 Euro Mortages are actually available in the UK although rare and some what eserteric.

2 Your car insurance policy could well be fully or particially indemnified in Gibraltar, Denmark or Malta aswell as London and the Channel Islands . Equally and more likely since London accounts for arround 40% of all motor policy indemnities across the EU a German policy holder may have their policy indemified and signed off in London . This business could evaporate if London loses passporting and access to the EU.

3 if you buy a car via finance it’s actually quite likely the owner and risk taker on that loan is partly or completely external to the UK . Indeed if it’s for those “ hated by you” German cars it may well be in Frankfurt.

4 Now this is a little bit in your favour significant private health care insurance suppliers operating in the UK are actually US or Swiss companies.

I think you actually need to understand brokers act a bit like retailers in simple terms selling you products built by others and that’s where the City Paris Frankfurt operate.
 
mmo
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:50 am

Well, so much for the statement by the Brexit leaders about having nations lined up to do a deal with the UK after Brexit. I could never get my head around the statements the Brexit campaign would make regarding their vision of trade after Brexit. Why would any country give the UK a better deal than they would give a much bigger trading bloc?

Japan has given the UK the dose of reality which is there will be no better deal than staying in the EU

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gle-market
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:32 am

Just looking into self build housing. Can I use an Italian architect to design it? Can I use a Slovenian electrician to wire it up. No - because their qualifications aren’t recognised here nor would ours be in their countries. It’s lovely having a market of 500m people but it’s no good if there’s no meaningful single market for ALL services.

Could you give me examples of where I’ve ‘hated’ anyone please? As an Audi owner I mustn’t hate the German cars that much, can I?

Moreover, the Directive lists a number of areas which are not covered by the liberation of trade in services within the European Union. These areas include:

Financial services which are governed by separate EU provisions;
Electronic communications which is also governed by separate provisions;
Transport services, including urban transport, taxis and ambulances, as well as port services;
The majority of health care services;
Audiovisual services, whatever their mode of transmission, including cinemas;
Gambling activities, including games of chance and betting;
Social services in the area of social housing, childcare and support to families and persons in need provided by the state or by providers mandated by the state – at the national, regional or local level;
Services of temporary work agencies;
Private security services;
Services provided by notaries and bailiffs who are appointed by an official act of government.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:45 am

sevenair wrote:
Just looking into self build housing. Can I use an Italian architect to design it? Can I use a Slovenian electrician to wire it up. No - because their qualifications aren’t recognised here nor would ours be in their countries. It’s lovely having a market of 500m people but it’s no good if there’s no meaningful single market for ALL services.


Actually yes, they can.

Any EU architect can walk with his EU-equivalent title to the ARB and get it automatically recognised.

http://www.arb.org.uk/architect-informa ... fications/

Same for a registered electrician.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:11 am

mmo wrote:
Well, so much for the statement by the Brexit leaders about having nations lined up to do a deal with the UK after Brexit. I could never get my head around the statements the Brexit campaign would make regarding their vision of trade after Brexit. Why would any country give the UK a better deal than they would give a much bigger trading bloc?

Japan has given the UK the dose of reality which is there will be no better deal than staying in the EU

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gle-market


You mean "No better deal than staying in the EEA".
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:13 am

Exactly the same in financial services. Whilst there are different regulators in each country (eg FCA and PRA in the UK) they all have to adhere to the same overiding EU rules and regulations, eg the introduction of MIFID II recently).

Leaving the EU will not only mean loss of
Passporting for the UK but we will have companies who will have to set up EU satellite structures in order to compete in the EU (much like easyJet in aviation) and have a company structure that will have to adhere to both UK and EU legislation- unless they are harmonised in which case we don’t ‘get back control’ lol.

In the Financial sector this is much more legislation and red tape with no advantage whatsoever. Utter madness.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:02 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
mmo wrote:
Well, so much for the statement by the Brexit leaders about having nations lined up to do a deal with the UK after Brexit. I could never get my head around the statements the Brexit campaign would make regarding their vision of trade after Brexit. Why would any country give the UK a better deal than they would give a much bigger trading bloc?

Japan has given the UK the dose of reality which is there will be no better deal than staying in the EU

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gle-market


You mean "No better deal than staying in the EEA".


Indeed, staying within the EEA framework will soften the effects of Brexit. This Japanese ambassador to the UK is quite right of course. All logical.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:31 pm

So 40% of Japanese investment to the EU historically comes to the UK, Japanese companies are not currently investing in the UK and any trade deal will take several years to negotiate - if at all. Japanese will invest less in UK and move some jobs to the EU27 through leaving SM.

So much for the lies and spin of Liam Fox that they can cut and paste existing EU trade deals, and that a Tory Brexit deal will be just as good as current arrangements- another stark reminder of the economic harm we are doing to ourselves.

And all this quoted from the Japanese ambassador.

And for what..? Tangibly so far we have fishing rights (0.5% of GDP)... and errrm that’s about it.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:15 pm

sevenair wrote:
Just looking into self build housing. Can I use an Italian architect to design it? Can I use a Slovenian electrician to wire it up. No - because their qualifications aren’t recognised here nor would ours be in their countries. It’s lovely having a market of 500m people but it’s no good if there’s no meaningful single market for ALL services.


It's opening more and more despite the lobbying against opening up the service market. In any case it's better than have nothing at all. Moreover, you cite "urban transport", but that is a narrow definition as public transport in general is subject to EU competition. The majority of these contracts are subject to open bids for any EEA company and discrimination based on point of origin is not allowed. The same applies to others on that list (it's why the Dutch government has difficulty blocking large, Maltese, betting companies from supplying gambling to Dutch residents).

sevenair wrote:
Yes but as a service based country there's no meaningful market for services


If so, why is the City pushing to keep its passporting rights? You realise that there is a market for services.

sabenapilot wrote:
because it isn't exporting much services to the UK anyway


Actually, part of the public transport system in the UK is run by EU companies (OK through UK subsidiaries).
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:57 pm

sevenair wrote:
Because of Brexit

Image

Time to crack open the bubbly lads. More bad news for your to get excited over.

But before you go getting too excited, sadly Nissan have confirmed this is nothing to do with Brexit.


The UK is a very economically liberal economy, so indeed there is no reason needed for a company to fire people, no ?

In this case it seems a large drop in sales has occurred, it could be linked to Brexit (people keeping money aside, or earning less, fearing inflation, etc.) or it could be that another car is more popular.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:05 pm

My (French multinational) service company (services is even in the name of the company) runs the British Home Office buildings, how is that for services trade ? Of course we have a local subsidiary and employ mostly locals so Brexit shouldn't make much of a difference.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:04 am

Aesma wrote:
My (French multinational) service company (services is even in the name of the company) runs the British Home Office buildings, how is that for services trade ? Of course we have a local subsidiary and employ mostly locals so Brexit shouldn't make much of a difference.


Getting back sovereignty may well end up with ownership rules.

In any case. More services! This time the creative industry.

http://www.howardgoodall.co.uk/articles ... variations

It’s important to note at this point that music is not a subsidiary, luxury, minor industry for the UK. We are the second biggest provider of music to the world after the USA. Music is of enormous benefit to us as a country. That is a fact, not an opinion. Nor is it special pleading. For a modern, developed country to deliberately, wilfully strangle one of its lead exporters is bordering on insane. Indeed, the Creative Industries as a whole are the fastest-growing sector in our economy, worth last year just under £100bn to our national coffers (to put that in context, in 2016 the NHS cost us £115bn). The Creative Industries Federation are deeply concerned about the knock-on effects of Brexit on this sector and have published their concerns accordingly: https://www.creativeindustriesfederatio ... industries

…as have the Musicians’ Union: https://www.musiciansunion.org.uk/Home/ ... Movement-f

….and my own professional composers’ body, BASCA https://basca.org.uk/2016/06/28/basca-reacts-brexit/

A little post-script to the use of my music and my working in the US as compared to my doing so in the EU: the US applies an at-source ‘withholding tax’ to any earnings I make there. Nice for the US economy. I am not then taxed a second time on that income in the UK (as far as I know!). However, if I work in France or Spain or the Czech Republic, 100% of the taxable part of that income goes to the UK exchequer to help our economy. When/If we leave the EU, withholding tax will undoubtedly be raised by EU member states since we will then be outside its harmonised tax regime, as a third party state. The UK exchequer loses out, again.

You’d imagine, perhaps, that being a professional composer might not be as severely affected by the end of Freedom of Movement within Europe as one would as a player, or as a highly-skilled video editor, sound engineer, or App developer. It’s true that the music itself will still be performed, in my case that means all over the world.

Anyone who’s ever been on holiday in Asia will have seen that copyright piracy is more or less endemic in these would-be vast markets for music and other creative forms. You can buy a DVD or a CD of more or less anything off the street, not to mention software programs or video games, and no-one is paying the creators of this work a cent for doing so. This includes, for example, the music that I write for the Mr Bean films, TV programmes and animated movies that have a massive audience all over the world. The laws that protect copyright-holders have during the past 40 years been harmonised across the EU and we as individuals, never mind individual countries, have unquantifiably more clout in negotiating with other territories as a unified group than on our own. It’s baffling why I even need to spell this out in the 21st century, as if there’s anyone left alive who doesn’t get this simple fact of the market place.

As it happens, European copyright laws have during my 40-year career as a professional composer been far more protective towards me and my fellow creators than our own UK government. That applies to the children of creators too. Thanks to our membership of the EU, in 1995, the UK’s old copyright term, life of the writer + 50 years, was increased to life of writer + 70 years.

The first giant wave of copyright piracy (let’s call it what it is – theft) was back in the day of cassette recorders. The music industry’s losses to cassette copying in the 1980s were seismic, even when compared to modern-day internet piracy. Creators’ organisations asked merely that there might be a small levy (15p I seem to remember was the figure proposed in the mid-80s) placed on the sale of every blank cassette to remunerate all the composers and musicians whose work was being ripped off by millions every day. The EU backed this request but the UK Tory government of the time, lobbied by the companies who were profiting from selling the cassettes and players, refused to grant the levy. The EU also responded to creators’ requests for the granting of so-called ‘Moral’ rights to writers, composers and copyright holders, so that, in an era where media were increasingly being transferred on, re-sold, syndicated and otherwise re-distributed, the original makers of a work would have to be acknowledged. Along with acknowledgement of someone’s contribution to a film, or record, or TV programme came a much greater likelihood that they would be remunerated as their work was shunted on down the line from enterprise to enterprise. Moral rights were therefore a good, fair idea and were also forward-thinking to the world of media distribution that is the norm in our new century. Guess what? The EU granted the rights and the Tory government in the UK took them away by satute (in 1988). Which, incidentally, rather refutes the Brexiteer trope that the EU ‘imposes’ its laws on our parliament.

...

I write books. I’ve written two on the history of music that – in their modest way – are best-sellers in their field (I know I’m not exactly JK Rowling or Dan Brown, but they have been translated into many languages and are still on sale throughout the world).

Why would Brexit affect these sales? Well, surprise surprise, the ramifications of our leaving the EU are likely to impact badly on British publishers for all sorts of reasons. I am guessing the average book-reader (and referendum voter) has been totally unaware of these issues. There’s a New York Times article about all this which summarises the problems:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/book ... m=referral

It does not make easy reading. The nub of it is that the difference to an author when we are no longer inside the EU is the difference between earning about a £1 royalty from the sale of a hardback, and earning a 10p royalty from the same book. Quite a big difference. Nadine Dorries MP is an author herself. I wonder if she knows that the re-configuring of British books as ‘export’ to the EU rather than ‘home market’, or that the UK will have to fight off competition from the much bigger US publishing houses for the sale of English-language books in Europe, is one of the consequences of the Brexit she espouses?



Artists are for the most part lefties anyway, so it's all part of their remoaner agenda.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:30 am

HAPPY ST GEORGE'S DAY

Image

A huge happy St. George's to my a.net friends. Tragically (for you lot) this is our final St George's day in the EU. Time to get the English sparkling wine chilled ready for this evening.

By the time we have the next St George's day, we won't have jobs, our houses will plunge in value, we will be £4200 worse off per household, the NHS will have collapsed, we will need to pay to go to Europe, we will need a visa to go on a Calais booze run, we will have stopped literally all trade with the EU, the flights will stop, our planes will be much more unsafe, war will ensue and cancer rates will surge. All because we dared leave the EU. Better make the most of this one lads.

Have a good one!!
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:35 am

Aesma wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Because of Brexit

Image

Time to crack open the bubbly lads. More bad news for your to get excited over.

But before you go getting too excited, sadly Nissan have confirmed this is nothing to do with Brexit.


The UK is a very economically liberal economy, so indeed there is no reason needed for a company to fire people, no ?

In this case it seems a large drop in sales has occurred, it could be linked to Brexit (people keeping money aside, or earning less, fearing inflation, etc.) or it could be that another car is more popular.


Job losses will be voluntary. They expect production to fall this year due to falling sales throughout Europe and a collapse in the sale of diesels due to punitive taxes on new large diesels, which dominate the Sunderland production line. Production is expected to increase in 2019. Large diesels are the mainstay of the Sunderland production line and it's large diesels which have called out of favour with the public.

It's a very dynamic production centre. It has closed entire lines, it is suspended entire shifts and has a habit of adapting to demand very quickly as demand varies. At the same time it can quickly increase production. This is nothing new to NMUK.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:38 am

LJ wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Just looking into self build housing. Can I use an Italian architect to design it? Can I use a Slovenian electrician to wire it up. No - because their qualifications aren’t recognised here nor would ours be in their countries. It’s lovely having a market of 500m people but it’s no good if there’s no meaningful single market for ALL services.


It's opening more and more despite the lobbying against opening up the service market. In any case it's better than have nothing at all. Moreover, you cite "urban transport", but that is a narrow definition as public transport in general is subject to EU competition. The majority of these contracts are subject to open bids for any EEA company and discrimination based on point of origin is not allowed. The same applies to others on that list (it's why the Dutch government has difficulty blocking large, Maltese, betting companies from supplying gambling to Dutch residents).

sevenair wrote:
Yes but as a service based country there's no meaningful market for services


If so, why is the City pushing to keep its passporting rights? You realise that there is a market for services.

sabenapilot wrote:
because it isn't exporting much services to the UK anyway


Actually, part of the public transport system in the UK is run by EU companies (OK through UK subsidiaries).


I didn't say there wasn't a single market for services. I said there wasn't a meaningful market for services and the services aspect of the SM is overstated.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:47 am

sevenair wrote:
HAPPY ST GEORGE'S DAY

A huge happy St. George's to my a.net friends. Tragically (for you lot) this is our final St George's day in the EU. Time to get the English sparkling wine chilled ready for this evening.

By the time we have the next St George's day, we won't have jobs, our houses will plunge in value, we will be £4200 worse off per household, the NHS will have collapsed, we will need to pay to go to Europe, we will need a visa to go on a Calais booze run, we will have stopped literally all trade with the EU, the flights will stop, our planes will be much more unsafe, war will ensue and cancer rates will surge. All because we dared leave the EU. Better make the most of this one lads.

Have a good one!!


your memory is really becoming an issue sevenair... don't you remember that a transition period has been agreed (that you were in favour of), that's another two years of effective European membership (albeit without representation).

That's more time to try and sort this mess out

oh dear, oh dear.....
Last edited by Richard28 on Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:52 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:50 am

sevenair wrote:
I didn't say there wasn't a single market for services. I said there wasn't a meaningful market for services and the services aspect of the SM is overstated.


So by your definition if you cannot purchase a retail German car Insurance policy there isn't a meaningful European market in services?


I think I've heard it all now....
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:33 am

Yeah mate, I can't get German car insurance so that's why we should leave the EU. Tragically it's not that isolated it is? No doubt you can go to your little group of hardcore remoaner friends and tell them that someone voted to leave the EU because he couldn't get German car insurance. If only it were German car insurance. Sadly, it isnt:

Moreover, the Directive lists a number of areas which are not covered by the liberation of trade in services within the European Union. These areas include:

Financial services which are governed by separate EU provisions;
Electronic communications which is also governed by separate provisions;
Transport services, including urban transport, taxis and ambulances, as well as port services;
The majority of health care services;
Audiovisual services, whatever their mode of transmission, including cinemas;
Gambling activities, including games of chance and betting;
Social services in the area of social housing, childcare and support to families and persons in need provided by the state or by providers mandated by the state – at the national, regional or local level;
Services of temporary work agencies;
Private security services;
Services provided by notaries and bailiffs who are appointed by an official act of government.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:40 am

Richard28 wrote:
sevenair wrote:
HAPPY ST GEORGE'S DAY

A huge happy St. George's to my a.net friends. Tragically (for you lot) this is our final St George's day in the EU. Time to get the English sparkling wine chilled ready for this evening.

By the time we have the next St George's day, we won't have jobs, our houses will plunge in value, we will be £4200 worse off per household, the NHS will have collapsed, we will need to pay to go to Europe, we will need a visa to go on a Calais booze run, we will have stopped literally all trade with the EU, the flights will stop, our planes will be much more unsafe, war will ensue and cancer rates will surge. All because we dared leave the EU. Better make the most of this one lads.

Have a good one!!


your memory is really becoming an issue sevenair... don't you remember that a transition period has been agreed (that you were in favour of), that's another two years of effective European membership (albeit without representation).

That's more time to try and sort this mess out

oh dear, oh dear.....


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/03/brexit-weekly-briefing-less-than-a-year-to-brexit-day

Sadly even the Remoaner News thinks there's less than a year to go.

It's looking more likely that we will 'crash out' (I know how you lot love that saying) with no SM and no trade deal. That recession that was promised and what I expected is now looking more likely. No pain, no gain. But saying as 95% of the things project fear promised us hasn't happened yet, who can say?

A major airline confirmed today that their crews don't need to take any action and that UK licences are still required and speaking with all major airlines they agree that there is no business risk in terms of licences and no plans for any changes at this time. You must be gutted!
Last edited by sevenair on Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:46 am

#LOL

Image
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:55 am

sevenair wrote:
Yeah mate, I can't get German car insurance so that's why we should leave the EU. Tragically it's not that isolated it is? No doubt you can go to your little group of hardcore remoaner friends and tell them that someone voted to leave the EU because he couldn't get German car insurance. If only it were German car insurance. Sadly, it isnt:


Just stating what you have been telling us sevenair, nothing more and nothing less....!

So let me get this straight, you are trying to tell us that a UK export of £84 billion per annum (that's £1.6 billion a week) under services to the EU (2014 figure) is not meaningful, so let me ask you what figure would be meaningful?
 
LJ
Posts: 5860
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:18 am

Richard28 wrote:
your memory is really becoming an issue sevenair... don't you remember that a transition period has been agreed (that you were in favour of), that's another two years of effective European membership (albeit without representation)..


But he's right. The UK has left the EU as in the transition period the UK isn't allowed to vote for new EU legislation nor has seats in the EU parliament. Thus it's not a member anymore. It's not even an "effective member" as this would imply that it has some rights (other than those aready agreed upon). Basically the transition period is paying and complying. Not a pretty situation to be in, but fortunately for the UK it will last less than 2 years (unless the UK wants to extend it for some odd reason).
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:20 am

Big News:
Image

18% of the UK are happy with Brexit negotiations to this point
56% of voters believe UK should stay in the single market (including 22% of leave voters) - with 16% undecided.
67% would not accept a hard border in Ireland
10% of leave voters aged under 45 say they would now vote remain

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/big-bre ... embership/


more pressure for Theresa Mays Brexit strategy (or lack thereof)

#exitbrexit
https://www.peoples-vote.uk/
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:24 am

LJ wrote:
But he's right. The UK has left the EU as in the transition period the UK isn't allowed to vote for new EU legislation nor has seats in the EU parliament. Thus it's not a member anymore. It's not even an "effective member" as this would imply that it has some rights (other than those aready agreed upon). Basically the transition period is paying and complying. Not a pretty situation to be in, but fortunately for the UK it will last less than 2 years (unless the UK wants to extend it for some odd reason).


hence I said "albeit without representation" :D so yes, agree with what you say.

sevenairs was implying that the effects of Brexit will kick in in 2019, hence his remarks regarding NHS, VISA's etc - this is not correct - the "cliff edge" is now pushed back to 2021.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:49 am

Wrong my friend. I've said I'm not against a transition period. If you can find anything to contrary then please cite it and I'll happily correct.

It's just moving the goalposts. Remember project fear told us the disasters would be immediate. It wasn't. Then it was when we leave. Now it's looking like actually it's not all that bad. Now it's 'after the transition period'. Soon it will be 'after ten years'. Keep moving the goalposts and you'll never ever be wrong!

Oh yes, the People's Vote. Isn't that the one promoted by a guy who spends half of his time outside of the UK, and crucially, outside of the EU? This 'people's vote' sounds dangerously similar to the 'will of the people'. The will of the people can't simply be ignored when it doesn't produce the result you want then suddenly taken at face value when it does produce the 'right' result.

The obfuscation of the EU and Ireland and domestic saboteurs are all gearing toward a second referendum or a vote on the deal. It is with great regret (well, not really!) to remind you that neither will be occurring. We are leaving the EU, we are leaving the single market. Move on.
 
sevenair
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:50 am

Richard28 wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Yeah mate, I can't get German car insurance so that's why we should leave the EU. Tragically it's not that isolated it is? No doubt you can go to your little group of hardcore remoaner friends and tell them that someone voted to leave the EU because he couldn't get German car insurance. If only it were German car insurance. Sadly, it isnt:


Just stating what you have been telling us sevenair, nothing more and nothing less....!

So let me get this straight, you are trying to tell us that a UK export of £84 billion per annum (that's £1.6 billion a week) under services to the EU (2014 figure) is not meaningful, so let me ask you what figure would be meaningful?


But you ignore the points raised as well as the other items not subject to a meaningful single market. The German car insurance is one aspect of a huge subject.

But again you assume everything will stop. If you falsely claim that all £84bn worhnkf services traded will stop he yes it's bad. Just like you lot claim all trade with the EU will stop. Just like you claim all immigration will stop. Sadly for you it's nonsense.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:03 am

sevenair wrote:
Wrong my friend. I've said I'm not against a transition period. If you can find anything to contrary then please cite it and I'll happily correct.


gosh, now your reading skills are deteriorating as well:

I said you were in favour of this:

Richard28 wrote:
don't you remember that a transition period has been agreed (that you were in favour of)


IN relation to a second referendum:

sevenair wrote:
It is with great regret (well, not really!) to remind you that neither will be occurring. We are leaving the EU, we are leaving the single market. Move on.


Democracy does not stand still, as opinions change (and they are), people should have the ability to express them.

sevenair wrote:
But again you assume everything will stop. If you falsely claim that all £84bn worhnkf services traded will stop he yes it's bad. Just like you lot claim all trade with the EU will stop. Just like you claim all immigration will stop. Sadly for you it's nonsense


back to your reading skills again, where did I say or assume all this trade will stop? I have even talked about how companies are having to duplicate structures and set up EU27 satellite firms to retain trade!

Richard28 wrote:
So let me get this straight, you are trying to tell us that a UK export of £84 billion per annum (that's £1.6 billion a week) under services to the EU (2014 figure) is not meaningful, so let me ask you what figure would be meaningful?


Care to give me a number?
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:07 am

sevenair wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Yeah mate, I can't get German car insurance so that's why we should leave the EU. Tragically it's not that isolated it is? No doubt you can go to your little group of hardcore remoaner friends and tell them that someone voted to leave the EU because he couldn't get German car insurance. If only it were German car insurance. Sadly, it isnt:


Just stating what you have been telling us sevenair, nothing more and nothing less....!

So let me get this straight, you are trying to tell us that a UK export of £84 billion per annum (that's £1.6 billion a week) under services to the EU (2014 figure) is not meaningful, so let me ask you what figure would be meaningful?


But you ignore the points raised as well as the other items not subject to a meaningful single market. The German car insurance is one aspect of a huge subject.

But again you assume everything will stop. If you falsely claim that all £84bn worhnkf services traded will stop he yes it's bad. Just like you lot claim all trade with the EU will stop. Just like you claim all immigration will stop. Sadly for you it's nonsense.


No one claims it will stop overnight, just like trade will not magically appear from thin air once a deal with Australia and India is signed.

Trade is incremental (or, in the UK case, decremental) steps. But the effects on the exchequer and employment will eventually be felt.

And even a, say, 5% decrease will have major impact on both tax income and employment.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:07 am

Richard28 wrote:
LJ wrote:
But he's right. The UK has left the EU as in the transition period the UK isn't allowed to vote for new EU legislation nor has seats in the EU parliament. Thus it's not a member anymore. It's not even an "effective member" as this would imply that it has some rights (other than those aready agreed upon). Basically the transition period is paying and complying. Not a pretty situation to be in, but fortunately for the UK it will last less than 2 years (unless the UK wants to extend it for some odd reason).


hence I said "albeit without representation" :D so yes, agree with what you say.

sevenairs was implying that the effects of Brexit will kick in in 2019, hence his remarks regarding NHS, VISA's etc - this is not correct - the "cliff edge" is now pushed back to 2021.


I personally don't think that being submissive to anything the EU decides without any representation something is something what I would define as "membership" of a club. You can be "member" without representation (like for example the associate members), but at least you have some influence.

To be honest, despite the transition period I do think things will change as of next year. Not only the obvious things (like the move of EBA and EMA to the continent), but I expect a mindset change will happen (in both UK and EU) and that cannot be without impact. The transition period is there to ensure that there is no cliff at the end of the transition period (or it's low enough that you don't die if you fall over). As such things will change as you don't lower the cliff without change.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:06 am

Interesting article on the forthcoming Customs Union votes in the independent yesterday.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 17616.html

There are two votes on the Customs Union upcoming, with the major one next month after the local elections.

It would appear that Theresa May will make this a vote of no confidence, which will mean that any vote against the government would lead to another general election.

Things are hotting up on this issue.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:11 pm

It won't lead to another election automatically. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, 2/3rds of Parliament has to vote to dissolve the sitting Parliament.

Also, the Customs Union won't do anything to solve the Irish border issue. The CU has existed since the late 1960s yet during the 1970s and 1980s you still had issues around delays at borders didn't you?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:15 pm

Res membership in the customs union without a seat at the table. Any agreement satisfying the some 27 members is likely to be acceptable to those not at the table. The various nations not at the table will likely be consulted on any major changes. It is unlikely that those at the table would deliberately aim at things hurting those not at the table.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:56 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
It won't lead to another election automatically. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, 2/3rds of Parliament has to vote to dissolve the sitting Parliament.


My understanding is that with the Fixed Term Parliament Act, a government losing a vote of no confidence has then 14 days to then win a vote of confidence, otherwise a new general election is held - no 2/3rds vote is needed in this situation.

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Also, the Customs Union won't do anything to solve the Irish border issue. The CU has existed since the late 1960s yet during the 1970s and 1980s you still had issues around delays at borders didn't you?


Those were military check points, quite different to trade barriers that could exist after ceasing to be in the Customs Union.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:02 pm

Richard28 wrote:

My understanding is that with the Fixed Term Parliament Act, a government losing a vote of no confidence has then 14 days to then win a vote of confidence, otherwise a new general election is held - no 2/3rds vote is needed in this situation.


Ahhh, you are indeed correct.

Richard28 wrote:
Those were military check points, quite different to trade barriers that could exist after ceasing to be in the Customs Union.


This is the border between Germany and the Netherlands at Vaals in 1973, five years after the completion of the customs union.

Image

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86842

Yes, it's not the same as the military checkpoints that existed in Northern Ireland but those checkpoints existed for a different reason. Otherwise they wouldn't have continued past 1993 when the Single Market abolished systematic customs checks between EU member states. I believe the "Norway Option" with a separate customs agreement (not the same as THE Customs Union) can make the Irish border issue much easier to solve. If that happened and most people were still able to travel unhindered between North and Southern Ireland, any nutter with a balaclava is going to get a lot less sympathy for blowing up a border post or shooting some poor sod manning it.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:53 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:

Yes, it's not the same as the military checkpoints that existed in Northern Ireland but those checkpoints existed for a different reason. Otherwise they wouldn't have continued past 1993 when the Single Market abolished systematic customs checks between EU member states. I believe the "Norway Option" with a separate customs agreement (not the same as THE Customs Union) can make the Irish border issue much easier to solve. If that happened and most people were still able to travel unhindered between North and Southern Ireland, any nutter with a balaclava is going to get a lot less sympathy for blowing up a border post or shooting some poor sod manning it.


For the most part yes, a Norway-like system would be acceptable in most cases.

The problem is May promised, in writing something extremely specific, namely "no physical infrastructure" in the border at the same time promising the UK would leave the EU. To compound the problem she also promised the DUP that NI wouldn't deviate from the UK in rules and regulations, and that there would be no border on the Irish sea.

In trying to appease everyone she's painted herself into a corner, and there's no way this circle can be squared.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:06 pm

This maybe the way to a solution, however if you look at google maps you will see border checks are still very much in place between Norway and it’s EU neighbours, eg Sweden.

Of course, Norway is also in the single market and is a member of EFTA, and in the Schengen area, so allows free movement of people

A ‘hard’ border is still needed here for Norway, and it crosses Theresa Mays ‘red lines’, so not the full solution that is needed (politically) currently.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:27 pm

Sevenair, by large diesel engine you mean up to 2.2d, right ? I'm asking because we have US members here, for them a large diesel is something 3 or 4 times larger :D

At least in France there is no new tax so far on diesel engines (which annoys me as it means I still get a diesel company car), only a bigger increase on the diesel fuel tax compared to the gas tax (which still increased), not enough for them to be on par.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:06 pm

Richard28 wrote:
This maybe the way to a solution, however if you look at google maps you will see border checks are still very much in place between Norway and it’s EU neighbours, eg Sweden.

Of course, Norway is also in the single market and is a member of EFTA, and in the Schengen area, so allows free movement of people

A ‘hard’ border is still needed here for Norway, and it crosses Theresa Mays ‘red lines’, so not the full solution that is needed (politically) currently.


Hence the suggestion on a customs agreement. Norway for example, has differing levels of duty on things like tobacco and alcohol to Sweden does it not? If the UK makes a deal to harmonise the duty between itself and Ireland, you wouldn't need to stop vehicles to do those checks. If we get to the point where just a handful of trucks get pulled over for random spot checks, surely most people in Ireland, North and South won't lose that much sleep?

May's red lines need junking as do those who advocate walking away with no deal (which is suicide).
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:39 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:

Hence the suggestion on a customs agreement. Norway for example, has differing levels of duty on things like tobacco and alcohol to Sweden does it not? If the UK makes a deal to harmonise the duty between itself and Ireland, you wouldn't need to stop vehicles to do those checks. If we get to the point where just a handful of trucks get pulled over for random spot checks, surely most people in Ireland, North and South won't lose that much sleep?

May's red lines need junking as do those who advocate walking away with no deal (which is suicide).


Duties are often different between different countries, and the UK is free to set it's own rates of VAT (although there are some EU rules here). simply having the same VAT rate however does not give equal trade/free trade... also once you open up to the Republic of Ireland you open up trade to the whole of the EU.

Another one of the problems here is that the UK could have a problem signing new trade deals if there is an open border with the EU.

Think about the EU/Canada trade deal for example, one of the EU's concerns was US imports coming into Canada then coming to the EU dressed up as Candadian goods. As such country of origin rules are in place as part of the EU/Canada trade deal to protect EU from non Canadian imports (and Canada from non EU goods).

If there is an open border with the EU, then the UK will find it very hard to get trade deals with other countries, as a trade deal with the UK, in that event, would open up the other country to EU goods by the back door.

For the EU it could also jeopardise existing trade deals they have in place with other countries (and there are many) as they would suddenly fall foul of their country of origin commitments to those other countries.

Agree with your comments on May's red lines, she has cornered herself here, my guess is things will start to unravel pretty quickly after the May elections..but we'll see.

Incidentally, concerning the WTO rules, the "no deal" scenario (which yes, is crazy), I'm no expert here, but understand that hard borders can also be demanded by the WTO before rates and quotas are agreed for that countries terms. So even here there is of course no answer to the Northern Ireland issue, and a hard border is necessary.

The Customs Union, Or "A Customs Union" (expect political trickery here as a possible solution) will be a necessary solution.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:49 pm

THE Customs Union ceases to apply once the treaties do. You cannot be in it if you are outside the EU. You'd effectively be arguing for the UK to be outside the EU but inside the Common Commercial Policy meaning any trade deals are still made by the EU. I think even the more dedicated remain supporters might have trouble squaring that one. The only possible benefit to such an embarrassing scenario as that is to then demand that in return for being still inside the CCP, all existing trade deals must continue to apply in full.

A customs union of some sort might help but I still stand by the view that it is the single market and the regulatory alignment and harmonisation that does far more to enable the free flow of goods.

You're of course right on the WTO aspect. Per WTO rules, a country must enforce such controls and for the EU to be recognised as a Free Trade Area, under the same rules it must also apply checks so as to prove it can regulate the flow of goods into it. People like Mogg who think we can just apply no controls to the border in a WTO scenario are deluded. If anything, refusing to apply such controls might be taken as a prime face evidence of zero tariffs which means under Most Favoured Nation rules we'd have to apply zero tariffs to every other country. Say goodbye to British agriculture for a start.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:27 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
This maybe the way to a solution, however if you look at google maps you will see border checks are still very much in place between Norway and it’s EU neighbours, eg Sweden.

Of course, Norway is also in the single market and is a member of EFTA, and in the Schengen area, so allows free movement of people

A ‘hard’ border is still needed here for Norway, and it crosses Theresa Mays ‘red lines’, so not the full solution that is needed (politically) currently.


Hence the suggestion on a customs agreement. Norway for example, has differing levels of duty on things like tobacco and alcohol to Sweden does it not? If the UK makes a deal to harmonise the duty between itself and Ireland, you wouldn't need to stop vehicles to do those checks. If we get to the point where just a handful of trucks get pulled over for random spot checks, surely most people in Ireland, North and South won't lose that much sleep?


There's a domino effect in place there. If Northern Ireland and the Republic get their duties and regularions harmonised (to keep the border open) then in turn the UK needs to abide by the same rules (as per promise made to the DUP of no regulatory divergence). It's not just duties: it's rules of origin, it's who certifies what, etc. it takes tremendous work to keep a border open.

Which leads us to Brexit in name only, which many of the proponents of Brexit dread (but still is by far the simplest and better option, all things considered).
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:40 pm

But that was my point about why the SM is the bigger factor in an open border. Tariffs are just one small part of it.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:37 am

Indeed, Turkey is a good example of this (and one we should be wary of) which is a customs union but not the customs union - items such as agriculture are not included and as such it has full border controls in place.

As JJJ points out there appears no way to square this circle, there will have to be compromises one way or the other, which means one faction of the Tory party will not be happy.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:57 am

Richard28 wrote:
As JJJ points out there appears no way to square this circle, there will have to be compromises one way or the other, which means one faction of the Tory party will not be happy.


"Europe" has divided the Tories since the days of Ted Heath. :sarcastic:
 
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Richard28
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:08 am

scbriml wrote:
"Europe" has divided the Tories since the days of Ted Heath. :sarcastic:


Yep!

I can't recall who, but someone from the EU described Brexit as a Tory party Schism, which is essentially what this is. It does not advantage us economically or politically, it just seeks to pacify the extremists within the Tory party at the expense of the rest of us.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit EU position Phase 2

Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:24 am

scbriml wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
As JJJ points out there appears no way to square this circle, there will have to be compromises one way or the other, which means one faction of the Tory party will not be happy.


"Europe" has divided the Tories since the days of Ted Heath. :sarcastic:


And even a brickhead like De Gaulle saw it coming.

Everyone would have been happier if the UK just stayed in EFTA and just ordered smaller countries around.

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