https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... olls-ahead has a good overview of the legal weed situation in the US.

It starts with:

Since Colorado legalized recreational marijuana in 2012, seven other states and the District of Columbia have followed suit. Next year, California, Maine, and Massachusetts will begin sales, potentially tripling the size of the legal pot market. By the end of 2018, 20 percent of Americans will live in a state where adults can legally buy and sell cannabis. Yet big problems remain unresolved, including a persistent black market that legalization was supposed to help undermine. There are also fights between states in favor of legalizing weed and localities that oppose it. And of course marijuana remains illegal under federal law, casting a shadow over the industry.

So put down the pipe and read the rest of the article and tell us what you think!

One part I found interesting:

To become legal, marijuana businesses have to secure building permits and water rights and establish record-keeping protocols unfamiliar to an industry that’s long operated in the shadows. “It’s going to take decades for California to regulate its cannabis industry,” says Allen. “It’s been decades that we’ve been making this mess, and it’s going to take us a while to clean it up.”

In retrospect the farmers might not be as willing to become legal as others suggested they would.

Revelation wrote:

In retrospect the farmers might not be as willing to become legal as others suggested they would.

Think of it as the end of probation. Yes, it's still possible to get moonshine today, and there's still money to be made smuggling contraband booze across the border. But compared to the legalised market, it's but drops in the ocean.

The real issue is the federal vs. state mess; as long as its a federal crime the 'industry', such as it is, will be in limbo, whilst there is lots of room for the illegal market to carry on. But I'm sure it's all a question of time, and once it's no longer a federal offence and a reasonable tax rate is applied, the efficiency of a legal market will quickly all but eradicate the black market.

B777LRF wrote:

The real issue is the federal vs. state mess; as long as its a federal crime the 'industry', such as it is, will be in limbo, whilst there is lots of room for the illegal market to carry on. But I'm sure it's all a question of time, and once it's no longer a federal offence and a reasonable tax rate is applied, the efficiency of a legal market will quickly all but eradicate the black market.

Agree. It won't obtain "industrial" scale till the banking system is available to those in the business, and that can't happen while it's still a federal offense. Till then, it'll stay at a much lower level of development.

Revelation wrote:

In retrospect the farmers might not be as willing to become legal as others suggested they would.

This is where laws and regulations come into play. I know some people here like to say law don't work and aren't effective but they are and illegal farms will be found and shut down as enforcement actions, law abiding citizens, and businesses ferret them out.

But yes, as others have said it needs to have a change at the federal level to really create a paradigm shift. Fortunately as more states allow it their legislators will be more inclined to change its "Schedule 1" status (which is ridiculous). Also Canada is likely to legalize it in the coming year and Mexico is also moving in the same direction (just legalized "medicinal marijuana").

Other interesting things I found:

Constellation Brands announced Monday that it had agreed to take a 9.9% minority stake in the $2 billion Canadian medical marijuana company Canopy Growth. The stake is worth about $191 million, though Constellation will have the option of purchasing additional stakes in the future.

Using Canopy’s expertise, Constellation is attempting to create cannabis-infused drinks, the Wall Street Journal reported after an interview with Constellation’s CEO.

“Canopy Growth has a seasoned leadership team that understands the legal, regulatory and economic landscape for an emerging market that is predicted to become a significant consumer category in the future,” said Constellation Brands CEO Rob Sands in a statement. “Our company’s success is the result of our focus on identifying early stage consumer trends, and this is another step in that direction.”

http://fortune.com/2017/10/30/constella ... py-growth/

So industry is getting involved which is key.
Additionally, one of the reasons why the owner of Corona and other alcoholic drinks is doing this:

The move comes amid signs that suggest some consumers are reducing alcohol usage in favor of cannabis.

“We believe alcohol could be under pressure for the next decade,” Cowen analysts led by Viven Azer wrote in an April note. “Consumer survey work suggests [about] 80% of consumers reduce their alcohol consumption with cannabis in the mix.”

I will end with the fact that I always found the "medical" angle to be mostly a crock even though I very much believe that more medical uses will be found for it beyond what it is used for now. I look at it as primarily needed to allow general acceptance of it which is required in order to get it removed from being a schedule 1 drug. Marijuana is effective as several medically valid and attractive uses, from pain control to appetite support to brain/neuron affects but it could never be developed due to its status. I also very much want to see hemp come back as an industrial product.

Marijuana can be as harmful as alcohol and cigarettes that is apparent, but it is also no more harmful than those items and so if they are legal then it should be as well.

Tugg

Most people prefer hand rolled, from what I hear.

oh, wait....

There is a correlation between the decline of opioid use and overdoses and the rise of marijuana use.

https://drugabuse.com/legalizing-mariju ... overdoses/

Black markets are more profitable.

BawliBooch wrote:

Black markets are more profitable.

No, not really.
But the key thing is legitimate industry needs to be secure, supported by governmental and societal systems. Some nations don't do that, they allow black markets to thrive, usually because bribery is widespread or industry or government is corrupt.

Tugg

Revelation wrote:

B777LRF wrote:

The real issue is the federal vs. state mess; as long as its a federal crime the 'industry', such as it is, will be in limbo, whilst there is lots of room for the illegal market to carry on. But I'm sure it's all a question of time, and once it's no longer a federal offence and a reasonable tax rate is applied, the efficiency of a legal market will quickly all but eradicate the black market.

Agree. It won't obtain "industrial" scale till the banking system is available to those in the business, and that can't happen while it's still a federal offense. Till then, it'll stay at a much lower level of development.

Well, define industrial scale. There are outdoor farms in Oregon with hundreds of acres planted. Warehouse-size packaging operations. etc. Even though they are mostly unable to use the banking system.

Tugger wrote:

Revelation wrote:

In retrospect the farmers might not be as willing to become legal as others suggested they would.

This is where laws and regulations come into play. I know some people here like to say law don't work and aren't effective but they are and illegal farms will be found and shut down as enforcement actions, law abiding citizens, and businesses ferret them out.

That's a lot less likely when they're indoors in houses and law enforcement has stopped giving a crap years ago unless they make a major nuisance of themselves.

Tugger wrote:

Marijuana can be as harmful as alcohol and cigarettes that is apparent, but it is also no more harmful than those items and so if they are legal then it should be as well.

Is it? Particularly alcohol?

BawliBooch wrote:

Black markets are more profitable.

As long as supply and demand are cooperating. I can tell you as an Oregon resident that all the illegal capacity which didn't convert to legal, just switched to satiating the unstoppable out-of-state demand for concentrates, which is providing price support. As more and more states legalize, nationewide marijuana concentrate supply will eventually meet nationwide demand in both legal and dry states (green and brown states?) But right now in Oregon the people getting busted are mostly small fry illegal hash oil operations.

treetreeseven wrote:

Well, define industrial scale. There are outdoor farms in Oregon with hundreds of acres planted. Warehouse-size packaging operations. etc. Even though they are mostly unable to use the banking system.

Yes, that is impressive, but it's not on the same industrial scale as alcoholic beverages or tobacco. For instance, lack of inter-state commerce. I know that the state laws that allow marijuana growth don't allow interstate commerce because they don't want to run into issues with federal law, but that's my point, it won't be at industrial scale till it's fully integrated into commercial activity.

I think it will get there eventually, but it's not there yet.

treetreeseven wrote:

Tugger wrote:

This is where laws and regulations come into play. I know some people here like to say law don't work and aren't effective but they are and illegal farms will be found and shut down as enforcement actions, law abiding citizens, and businesses ferret them out.

That's a lot less likely when they're indoors in houses and law enforcement has stopped giving a crap years ago unless they make a major nuisance of themselves.

And? That is true for everything. Gambling is a simple example, game rooms go on in many places from simple home games to groups that put on games to almost professional ones that operate illegally. They too operate as long as they aren't reported (in general) but are not threat to the industry and generate a fraction of the revenues. They don't define the industry and the industry works to keep them out and down.

Tugger wrote:

Marijuana can be as harmful as alcohol and cigarettes that is apparent, but it is also no more harmful than those items and so if they are legal then it should be as well.

Is it? Particularly alcohol?[/quote]
Not sure what you are saying or asking here. Any "mind altering drug" can be dangerous. Doesn't mean they are bad and evil and terrible and shouldn't be allowed.

Tugg

Would rather start seeing alcohol vending machines around, but oh well. I'm for legalization of Marijuana everywhere but it's interesting to see marijuana becoming more and more accepted and alcohol becoming more and more taboo.

When it's legal and taxed, then most of that tax should go to enforcement of the law (including DUI laws) and programs to help addicts. Same for tobacco and alcohol.

As long as laws provide for individual production for own use, then illegal producers really have no excuse.

BawliBooch wrote:

Black markets are more profitable.

No they are not! Here in Colorado the black market lost about half of its profits in just a few months. If you were someone who had a decent grow operation in your basement you had to decide if you wanted to continue to grow on your own and make half as much for the same amount of work (and it is hard work, its not as easy as watering your plants!) or you could become a legal grow and get certified which came with a lot of cost and risk for not as much upside as existed before it became legal. In the end a lot of people just stopped growing anything more than what they used for themselves. Legalizing it killed most of the black market here in Colorado unless you are going to risk everything and take it out of state.