dtw2hyd
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Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:28 pm

There is news everywhere ranging from Indian economy is in a technical slow down to about to collapse. Is Indian National Congress found their lobbying company or these stories are any true?

I know Indian economy is too complex for Modi/Jaitley/NITI trio to handle, but I am surprised they bought it to its knees in three years. Demonetization, GST and failing Banking system seems to be a major issue.

Also, Gujarat's Vikas(Development) Gone Crazy campaign is very interesting. That is funny with because Modi is ready to spend $34 Billion($17B initial loan) on a 300-mile high-speed rail in Gujarat, without any recommendation by any of the studies.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:39 am

Propaganda can only do so much. Truth eventually does come out.

Yes, for years, the ruling BJP managed to hide news about the crashing economy with clever PR tactics, media bullying, and an army of bhakt trolls to sell the message across. But that "Gujarat Model" is rapidly coming apart.

The indian economy is in free-fall along with the Rupee. Jobs are being lost on a collosal scale in the organised economy, and knock-off effect on the unorganised sector (10x the size of the organised sector) is HUGE. Its becoming more and more difficult to hide the news, though the ruling BJP is trying its best to. Just last week, 4 articles in the Times of India on the topic were pulled out after pressure from the ruling govt. But the international media is rapidly waking up to the disaster that is coming.


Also, Gujarat's Vikas(Development) Gone Crazy campaign is very interesting.


The success that campaign has found is not surprising for journalists working on the ground. To get a real picture of what is happening follow the regional language media. The national media is under pressure from the ruling govt, but their influence with the regional media is minimal. Thats where you will find the real story. What is happening on the ground is that the SME (small & medium enterprises) business owners who formed the backbone of BJP support are now switching en-masse to the Congress.

Another factor here is that many Hindu's are now tiring of the constant hate-campaigns against minorities and many are increasingly being vocal of their annoyance with it. The success of the Hindi-Beda campaign in Karnataka, where people got together to resist the forcible imposition of Hindi language highlights yet another factor for Modi's fall from grace - People in India are proud of their language. Language/culture trumps religion - Pakistan learnt that lesson in 1971. Modi/BJP learned that lesson in 2017!

Unlike in 2014, the BJP cannot hope to use AAP to cut Congress votes anymore. In 2014, AAP cut just enough Congress votes to allow the BJP to win the seat - this was seen in as many as 67 seats. If the AAP was not around, the Cong would be at 114, while BJP would have been at 215 - without a majority. People have seen through this. Another huge factor.

I dont have much faith in a Congress led by RaGa. I am sure they will do a much better job running the economy as well as on the social issues, but for that they have to win first. And RaGa is too much of a simpleton to do the stuff you need to do to win elections. The one huge positive with the Congress is they are a team: even if RaGa was the PM, the ministers work as a team rather than the "one man army" we have with the BJP - a model that has now been proven to be a complete failure. But again, they have to win the elections, and RaGa is just not wired to play the dirty-tricks as well as his opponents.

What I am worried about: Mr.Modi when cornered can do what he has always done when stuck in a similar situation. That is, ratchet up Hindu-Muslim-Christian issues and trigger a riot, then use the communal polarisation to sweep the elections. Thats how he won 2002 state elections. We might see that on a national scale now. Another worry - the fascist RSS that forms the backbone of the ruling BJP might just replace Modi with an even bigger fanatic waiting in the wings. Yogi Adityanath is fast emerging as the alternative.

To those who might dismiss that: you know there was a time when Advani was the "hardliner", until he was sidelined and replaced overnight with Modi. Modi is the "pacifist" now in their world, while Yogi is the hardliner. Some of the most hardline Modi-Trolls on Social media have already switched to Yogi's side. Its a warning!
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:52 am

Opposition has been drawing enormous crowds at their public rallies now. In gujarat and MP for sure there are signs of frustration at the ruling establishment.

Image
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:07 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
Propaganda can only do so much. Truth eventually does come out....
The success that campaign has found is not surprising for journalists working on the ground. ...
What I am worried about: Mr.Modi when cornered can do what he has always done when stuck in a similar situation. That is, ratchet up Hindu-Muslim-Christian issues and trigger a riot, then use the communal polarisation to sweep the elections. Thats how he won 2002 state elections. We might see that on a national scale now. .

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

BawliBooch wrote:
Another worry - the fascist RSS that forms the backbone of the ruling BJP might just replace Modi with an even bigger fanatic waiting in the wings. Yogi Adityanath is fast emerging as the alternative.

If I may plagiarize Sarah Palin, God is not happy with Utter Pradesh.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:23 am

CNN covering this story

http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/04/news/ec ... index.html

I guess Modi need to upgrade apco subscription plan.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:11 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
CNN covering this story

http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/04/news/ec ... index.html

I guess Modi need to upgrade apco subscription plan.


The rumor is APCO Worldwide has now switched sides. :P

Another rumor doing the rounds the past week: Big "demonetisation type announcement" (on TV ofcourse) to suddenly impose alcohol prohibition across India. Amit Shah just abandoned his campaign in a state and flew down to Delhi in advance of what is said to a huge announcement. Bhakts should love this!
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:15 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
The rumor is APCO Worldwide has now switched sides. :P

That is a major shift after 15+ years of relationship.

BawliBooch wrote:
Another rumor doing the rounds the past week: Big "demonetisation type announcement" (on TV ofcourse) to suddenly impose alcohol prohibition across India. Amit Shah just abandoned his campaign in a state and flew down to Delhi in advance of what is said to a huge announcement. Bhakts should love this!


So Modi thinks either opposition will distribute liquor for votes (or) he wants to take down some state economies which are currently surviving on liquor tax revenue. This will move India into recession territory.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:15 am

The Hyena's of Judeo-Christian Fake News networks like BBC & CNN have begun to gather at the smell of blood. Running anti-Hindu stories like this one.

India jobs: The signs point to a bleak outlook for employment

Dear Leader should ban all Judeo-Christian networks from operating in India and send their journalists back home.
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HAWK21M
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:25 pm

Guess the so called promised "Ache din" or Good days have not arrived yet.
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:26 pm

Lot of questions, very little real information

Is there a bankruptcy law like our chapter 11 in India? Cannot figure out if it is already in place from news reports.
How did public sector bank bad debts jump from 2.5 lakh crores to 12.5 lakh crores in 3 years?
How did BJP win UP elections? My money is on farm loan waivers.

It appears Modi wants to use federal spending only on
a) Fancy projects benefit Gujarat
b) Improve his own image
c) Help BJP win a particular election

Many useful projects are rejected because they don't meet this criterion.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:44 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Is there a bankruptcy law like our chapter 11 in India? Cannot figure out if it is already in place from news reports.
How did public sector bank bad debts jump from 2.5 lakh crores to 12.5 lakh crores in 3 years?

Some of the biggest defaulters of loans to PSU banks are Adani (upwards of 80000 crores). A complete collapse of the Banking sector looks increasingly imminent.

dtw2hyd wrote:
How did BJP win UP elections? My money is on farm loan waivers.

My money is on fixing the Electronic Voting Machines. Many voters who pressed the button against BSP found the light blinked for the BJP. Some like minded journos are fighting a PIL in the Supreme Court to issue printed receipts of the vote which will allow for a physical recount later as well as provide individual voters assurance of their vote.

Gujarat will be the first place this will be tested.

dtw2hyd wrote:
It appears Modi wants to use federal spending only on
a) Fancy projects benefit Gujarat
b) Improve his own image
c) Help BJP win a particular election
Many useful projects are rejected because they don't meet this criterion.

The conversations on Social Media & WhatsApp has completely reversed direction in just 3 short years. Even hardcore Right wing supporters of Dear Leader are now sharing memes brutally lampooning the regime. Especially stunning in Gujarat which is regarded as the fortress of the Right!
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:50 pm

Read even Tatas have $25B debt.

I think AI privatization will add $9B more debt to PSU Banks and 20,000 direct job loss. This will be the third biggest achievement after Demo and GST.

Like I said in the past he will privatize AI one month before 2019 election, just to show as an achievement, next government will be holding the bin bag.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:20 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Read even Tatas have $25B debt.

There is a difference. Tata's are well leveraged! Adani & other cronies are not.

Secondly, the Tata's will certainly be in India after 2019. I can guarantee that Adani and his crooked son will be on a private plane to Kenya or Timbuctou before the election results are announced.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:00 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
I can guarantee that Adani and his crooked son will be on a private plane to Kenya or Timbuctou before the election results are announced.


Interesting!!!

It appears GST killed the Diwali shopping spree. If GST replaced 27 different existing taxes, how would it matter? Sure the rates may not match exactly, but the difference shouldn't be huge, correct?

Saw a cartoon claiming, now it is cheaper to attach a plough to Audi, than buying a farm tractor.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:40 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
It appears GST killed the Diwali shopping spree. If GST replaced 27 different existing taxes, how would it matter? Sure the rates may not match exactly, but the difference shouldn't be huge, correct?

Saw a cartoon claiming, now it is cheaper to attach a plough to Audi, than buying a farm tractor.


The whole point behind GST as conceived by Manmohan Singh was to have a simplified tax structure with a flat 18% structure across the country cutting down state taxes while at the same time ensuring states with an industrial base are not penalized for their performance. This would have simplified the flow of goods & services across state lines and boosted the economy. Ironically Modi opposed that version of the GST when he was Chief Minister.

The version of the GST he bought in now has complicated the structure manifold with 30 levels and multiple sub-levels of taxes while at the same time penalizing "performing" states and rewarding the underperforming states. Many Small & Medium enterprises (SME's) are finding it impossible to file GST returns once a day and simply choosing to shut down. Meanwhile states which across 60 years nurtured their industrial base are finding themselves shortchanged. Maharashtra & Tamil Nadu are the biggest loosers as their share of taxes has gone down while the "cow-belt" states with few industries are getting a windfall as always.

Out of every 100 rupees given by Maharashtra to Delhi, it gets back just 42 Rupees, while TN gets back just 38! The tiny state of Kerala, the highest contributor of Forex remittances, gets back just 18 rupees out of 100! Meanwhile Uttar Pradesh gets 220 rupees from delhi for every 100 rupees, while Bihar gets a whopping 390 for every 100! This situation is simply not going to be tenable.

The positive thing that has come out of this mess: India has found its voice! Something I never thought would happen. The gross incompetence displayed by Modi & Co has unleashed a wave of resentment and people are fighting back. I was on the ground in Gujarat last week and was shocked to see the level of support opposition leader Rahul Gandhi received in that state: long regarded as a fortress of the Hindu fascists. Hardcore Modi bhakts are now openly deriding the great leader on Social Media - something that would have been unimaginable 2 months back. People are fighting back.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:55 am

BawliBooch wrote:
The whole point behind GST as conceived by Manmohan Singh was to have a simplified tax structure with a flat 18% structure across the country cutting down state taxes while at the same time ensuring states with an industrial base are not penalized for their performance. This would have simplified the flow of goods & services across state lines and boosted the economy. Ironically Modi opposed that version of the GST when he was Chief Minister.

The version of the GST he bought in now has complicated the structure manifold with 30 levels and multiple sub-levels of taxes while at the same time penalizing "performing" states and rewarding the underperforming states. Many Small & Medium enterprises (SME's) are finding it impossible to file GST returns once a day and simply choosing to shut down. Meanwhile states which across 60 years nurtured their industrial base are finding themselves shortchanged. Maharashtra & Tamil Nadu are the biggest loosers as their share of taxes has gone down while the "cow-belt" states with few industries are getting a windfall as always.

Out of every 100 rupees given by Maharashtra to Delhi, it gets back just 42 Rupees, while TN gets back just 38! The tiny state of Kerala, the highest contributor of Forex remittances, gets back just 18 rupees out of 100! Meanwhile Uttar Pradesh gets 220 rupees from delhi for every 100 rupees, while Bihar gets a whopping 390 for every 100! This situation is simply not going to be tenable.

The positive thing that has come out of this mess: India has found its voice! Something I never thought would happen. The gross incompetence displayed by Modi & Co has unleashed a wave of resentment and people are fighting back. I was on the ground in Gujarat last week and was shocked to see the level of support opposition leader Rahul Gandhi received in that state: long regarded as a fortress of the Hindu fascists. Hardcore Modi bhakts are now openly deriding the great leader on Social Media - something that would have been unimaginable 2 months back. People are fighting back.


I am surprised to know Finance Minister has time to decide the tax bracket for salty snacks but doesn't have time to major issues.

By any chance do you know how much TS and AP are getting back for their 100 rupees? Curious because BJP keeps saying TS got 190,000 crores and AP got 250,000 crores, whereas state governments say they got less than 10,000 crores.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:47 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
I am surprised to know Finance Minister has time to decide the tax bracket for salty snacks but doesn't have time to major issues.

That pretty much sums up Modi's style of functioning. Style over substance. PR trumps governance.

Stark contrast with the silent PM Manmohan Singh who talked little but delivered in real terms.

dtw2hyd wrote:
By any chance do you know how much TS and AP are getting back for their 100 rupees? Curious because BJP keeps saying TS got 190,000 crores and AP got 250,000 crores, whereas state governments say they got less than 10,000 crores.


Article written before the GST cluster-f**k hit the Indian economy, which gives some figures.

United States of South India?
Isn’t it time the South received it's due?

After all, 20% of the population contributes a full 30% of India's tax revenues. This is the money that runs the country.

The South also delivers a fourth of India's GDP. It is not only an economic bellwether with low unemployment, a high rate of industrialisation and a per capita GDP that is over double that of the Hindi belt, it is also leaps ahead on human development and social indicators.

Child development indices are double to 7 times higher than the Hindi states, literacy rates tend towards an average of 80% with a 10-point difference against the North, and accessibility to health and hygiene facilities is radically better.

The gulf in human development is so stark that while fertility rates in the South are closer to that of Western Europe, much of the North is still getting their act together on basic issues like birthing babies without losing mothers.

The bottom line is that the development politics of the South has made it economically comparable to Hong Kong, while the atavistic politics of the North has dropped it far down the scales in the last six decades.

Like a Shakespearean drama though, the heroes with higher state GDP per capita, that is, Net State GDP per person, receive a lower devolution from centre to state, of state revenues. The South is effectively slammed for having scaled up its per capita incomes to the top 10 in India and scaled down poverty to half that of the rest of India.


Not surprising then that the rise of Modi has been accompanied with a resurgence in the movement for a Union of Southern States - Dravida Nadu. Made worse by Modi's insistence of forcing Hindi language on the Southern States. Kerala struck back when the Central Govt tried to impose the ill-thought out Beef Ban while Karnataka erupted in fury with a "Hindi Beda" (Dont want Hindi) campaign when the Modi govt started out on another hare-brained project to replace Kannada signboards in railway stations with Hindi signboards.

This moron is not just destroying the economy, but also pushing India into a civil war! :(
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:26 pm

I would like to follow India economics. Probably once or twice a month reading upwards of 2 hours. Anyone have a suggestion as to the best on-line resource. Much of what I just read on this thread has not been covered by the sources I currently read (which are, at least by conventional wisdom the best in the world. ps. I am not surprised).

I did read most of what Modi has done, but not the impact of it on the economy. New to me is the success of the Southern States, although I do have some semi-inside information.
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BawliBooch
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:50 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I would like to follow India economics. Probably once or twice a month reading upwards of 2 hours. Anyone have a suggestion as to the best on-line resource. Much of what I just read on this thread has not been covered by the sources I currently read (which are, at least by conventional wisdom the best in the world. ps. I am not surprised).

Much of India's electronic media is thoroughly compromised barring perhaps NDTV which is being bullied with Income Tax Raids and such. So much of the electronic media plays it safe. Some like Republick and Times Now take govt ass lickery to the extreme. Outlandish claims like "Obama touched Modi's feet" are quite common.

In the Print Media, barring "Hindu" all other national newspapers are compromised. If you want the real news, follow the regional language media which has retained much of its spine.

Among Western media, the Guardian & WSJ are building up an impressive India team with some fine journalists joining their ranks. Al Jazeera is surprisingly accurate wrt India. BBC ofcourse is an old hand in the India news.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I did read most of what Modi has done, but not the impact of it on the economy.

The one thing Modi did well is the PR game. Hiring the American firm APCO Worldwide helped whitewash his 2002 Gujarat Riots taint and they have been spinning the "miracle development man" spiel quite well. However the PR is rapidly wilting away given the scale of impotence displayed by Modi in handling the economy.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
New to me is the success of the Southern States, although I do have some semi-inside information.

The Southern States have always been better off than us historically. Karnataka has always been at the forefront in the Hi-Tech industry - the USAF Maintenance bases during WW2 were setup in Bangalore rather than up north in Kanpur. The first US technology MNC to setup shop in India, Bell Lab's also chose Bangalore 50 years ago! Tamil Nadu has similarly led when it comes to automobile manufacture.

The reason I think is Southern States have always invested much more in education & health than our states in the north. Kerala for eg spends more on education & health every year than Madhya Pradesh with 3 times its population! If Kerala was an independent state, its HD indices would be higher than some West European countries. Overall the per capita income of hypothetical Dravida Nadu (South Indian Republic) would be over 3 times that of rest of India if they were to become independent.

Do share the semi-inside information you have! Unless you received that on WhatsApp! :P
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:55 am

For being the world's largest democracy, the amount of fear to speak the truth is astounding.

Not many people knew the ground reality about Gujarat development until recently. Others either envied their progress or despised that Modi is using his position as PM to develop only Gujarat. But it appears he was spending money on a handful of fancy highly visible projects in Gujarat for PR.

Replicating any given business model is a myth. Just like India cannot replicate China, Dubai or Singapore other Indian states cannot replicate "Gujarat development model" if there is one.

NITI Aayog is a total failure, looks like there is a new panel with same members.

If India outsources
Prime Minister's office to McKinsey
NITI Aayog to Brookings Institute
Upper House, Lower House and Supreme Court to Tata, Reliance, Adani, and Ambani on a 6-month rotation

you wouldn't notice any difference, actually, India may do even better.
 
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Re: Indian ecomony slowdown, truth vs hype

Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:34 pm

BawliB - thanks
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