bmacleod
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Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:53 pm

Undoubtedly Irma will now be the most destructive hurricane in US history - long term effects will be in felt especially in Florida.

- building codes have to be upgraded...
- some sort of concrete coastal barriers will have to be developed or -
coastal developments will have to be abandoned and forced to move inland....
- business investment and tourism will take a huge hit.....
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:07 pm

all of the above, probably. As I understand it, the coastline of Florida is made of porous rock and that makes it hard to put in coastal defenses. But Florida has to do something, large parts of Maimi are less than 1 meter above the current sea line. With global warming, the sea will rise, so there is your problem.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:13 pm

bmacleod wrote:
Undoubtedly Irma will now be the most destructive hurricane in US history - long term effects will be in felt especially in Florida

A bit too early to make that claim, especially when the eastern cities were spared from the worst of it. Key West suffered heavily, but the western part of the state is not as densely populated as the central and eastern parts. If anything, Tampa was the only major city to be affected. The hurricane force winds didn't extend too far out so many places that were close to it felt up to category 1-2 winds at most. Now that it's been downgraded to a tropical storm, the worst damages to be felt are rain and a few roof shingles coming loose. Had Irma made a head-on landfall as a category 5 in the Miami area, I would have definitely agreed with the assessment.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
jreuschl
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:53 pm

Seems to me it was much more destructive to Cuba and Sint Maarten than Florida. Harvey certainly was to Houston.
 
seb146
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:57 pm

Dutchy wrote:
all of the above, probably. As I understand it, the coastline of Florida is made of porous rock and that makes it hard to put in coastal defenses. But Florida has to do something, large parts of Maimi are less than 1 meter above the current sea line. With global warming, the sea will rise, so there is your problem.


Gov. Scott does not allow his staff to talk about climate change.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/f ... 83720.html

Other people carry that banner and run with it

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... df197d4a57

The Secretary of Energy almost gets (it but not quite):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... 779419fdb9
You say Merry Christmas, I say All Holidays Matter
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:58 pm

In and of itself, this storm is like many the US and other countries have endured before.
People will recover, so will the economy.

The long term issue is the increasing frequency and strength of these storms, due to the effect of climate change.
100 year statistical events are becoming 10 year events and 10 years events will start happening on an almost yearly basis.

The problem is not Irma, it is all the Irmas and Harveys that threaten to hit the southeast US and other vulnerable areas of the World in the near future.
There will be a point where the frequency and severity of these events will have a substantial effect insurance prices and start to take a toll on national economies which will have to allocate more and more money from their budget to fund recovery efforts.
You could argue that it is already happening. This year alone, the effort to get congress to allocate a substantial sum towards the Harvey recovery had barely started when Irma came along. The US will have to bear the cost of these storms for years to come.

For a vulnerable region like Florida to keep sustaining severe weather events like this, major infrastructure investments will be needed, such as levees, major drainage, pumping stations, more resilient utility networks and much more stringent building codes. This will be a major expense going forward.

As has been argued by the scientific community for years, the real cost of climate change will be just that: cost. There will probably not be one catastrophic event that creates doom on a massive scale, just a series of increasingly frequent events which will drastically alter the livability or even survivability of certain populous regions, leading to massive migratory movements and/or drastic changes in local economies.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
luckyone
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:50 pm

This is in vain I'm sure. One is never going to find a perfect location that is devoid of natural disasters, I realize that, but it would be nice if we came to the realization that cities of millions of people shouldn't be built in places that require such massive infrastructure to keep these naturally inhospitable places unnaturally hospitable--like South Florida--in particular swamps that serve as natural buffers to events such as hurricanes.
 
sovietjet
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:23 pm

I have a trip planned to Miami on October 12, and now I wonder if I should cancel it. The hotel is right on Miami beach. I understand there are massive cleanup operations in place but is one month enough for everything to get back to normal?
 
Ken777
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:38 am

sovietjet wrote:
I have a trip planned to Miami on October 12, and now I wonder if I should cancel it. The hotel is right on Miami beach. I understand there are massive cleanup operations in place but is one month enough for everything to get back to normal?


Look at the location in Miami, especially how much damaged it has taken. Areas of flooding and large areas without electricity will be in indicator to cancel.

This is one of the huge challenges for Florida in general. There is a huge need to restore both the state for the Citizens as well as making it desirable for tourists to return to. One hurricane specialist in Florida was just on TV just mentioned that normal electrical outages should be returned within two weeks. The problem will be areas that are out because a main power line is out - like those huge towers damaged and need replacement. That can take over a month. The good news is that there are a lot of line workers and supervisors for power companies around the country that were sent down before Irma hit and will be in the field where possible right now..
 
Pyrex
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:32 pm

Francoflier wrote:
The long term issue is the increasing frequency and strength of these storms, due to the effect of climate change.
100 year statistical events are becoming 10 year events and 10 years events will start happening on an almost yearly basis.


Too bad the long-term trend of hurricanes is actually going down...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulat ... one_energy
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
 
bmacleod
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:05 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
bmacleod wrote:
Undoubtedly Irma will now be the most destructive hurricane in US history - long term effects will be in felt especially in Florida

A bit too early to make that claim, especially when the eastern cities were spared from the worst of it. Key West suffered heavily, but the western part of the state is not as densely populated as the central and eastern parts. If anything, Tampa was the only major city to be affected. The hurricane force winds didn't extend too far out so many places that were close to it felt up to category 1-2 winds at most. Now that it's been downgraded to a tropical storm, the worst damages to be felt are rain and a few roof shingles coming loose. Had Irma made a head-on landfall as a category 5 in the Miami area, I would have definitely agreed with the assessment.


In terms of death toll - I don't think Katrina's record of 1,833 in 2005 will be broken anytime soon. I was referring to property loss/damage. Large area of resorts and marinas from Marco Island up to Tampa - not to mention the Keys as this area bore the full Category 4 force.

Of course it will take at least a month or so before all the damage assessments are fully known.
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
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par13del
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:17 pm

sovietjet wrote:
I have a trip planned to Miami on October 12, and now I wonder if I should cancel it. The hotel is right on Miami beach. I understand there are massive cleanup operations in place but is one month enough for everything to get back to normal?

The good thing with parts of Miami beach is that they have had bouts of street flooding when they have exceptional high tides, so some infrastructure is already in place to accommodate, even if that is just raised sidewalks, extra drainage etc. The bigger issue is power, especially if main transmissions lines into the beach area are down, only so much re-routing they can do, you may have some rolling blackouts, but I expect the folks in the beach area want to get things back to normal as fast as they can not just to make money but to get some normal aspects of their lives back.
 
NoTime
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:27 pm

bmacleod wrote:
Undoubtedly Irma will now be the most destructive hurricane in US history - long term effects will be in felt especially in Florida.


What? For Irma? No way.

The number I've been seeing today is $50 billion, and even that might be overstated.

Now, had the co2 fairy continued to strengthen the hurricane as many climate change soothsayers had predicted, it might have been much, much more expensive. But, I guess mother nature will do what she feels like - regardless of the political pressures.
 
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william
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:15 pm

http://www.ftlauderdalewebcam.com/

Three ships arriving now.
 
jetwet1
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:04 pm

Ken777 wrote:
The problem will be areas that are out because a main power line is out - like those huge towers damaged and need replacement. That can take over a month. The good news is that there are a lot of line workers and supervisors for power companies around the country that were sent down before Irma hit and will be in the field where possible right now..


Yep, power is the real issue right now, so many trees came down and took power lines with them.

We have a condo in a mid rise at Hillsboro beach, no power there and we are being told 2-3 weeks....We actually have friends staying there right now, a couple of years back after a storm and having no power for a couple of days, I went to harborfreight and picked up one of these :

https://www.harborfreight.com/8750-max- ... 63087.html

For anyone living in an area that can suffer long term power failures, I cannot recommend it enough. Though some residents in the tower were not happy when our friends started it Sunday afternoon, they pretty quickly came round after finding out our condo had enough power to run a griddle to cook food and a fridge that works so cold drinks. The thing has been running pretty much non stop since then (shuts down for fuel and oil) so it's now a hit.
 
NoTime
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:17 pm

jetwet1 wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
The problem will be areas that are out because a main power line is out - like those huge towers damaged and need replacement. That can take over a month. The good news is that there are a lot of line workers and supervisors for power companies around the country that were sent down before Irma hit and will be in the field where possible right now..


Yep, power is the real issue right now, so many trees came down and took power lines with them.

We have a condo in a mid rise at Hillsboro beach, no power there and we are being told 2-3 weeks....We actually have friends staying there right now, a couple of years back after a storm and having no power for a couple of days, I went to harborfreight and picked up one of these :

https://www.harborfreight.com/8750-max- ... 63087.html

For anyone living in an area that can suffer long term power failures, I cannot recommend it enough. Though some residents in the tower were not happy when our friends started it Sunday afternoon, they pretty quickly came round after finding out our condo had enough power to run a griddle to cook food and a fridge that works so cold drinks. The thing has been running pretty much non stop since then (shuts down for fuel and oil) so it's now a hit.


I'll second that purchase recommendation. After the derecho of June 2012 (which, by the way, killed more people in the US than Irma did), we lost power for a week. I went to Lowe's and got a similar one. We're lucky enough to be able to hook it up directly to the house and run most of our rooms off of it (within reason), but even if you simply have to run extension cords directly from the generator, it still makes a yuuuuge difference - and keeps the wife and kids content.
 
flymia
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:18 pm

sovietjet wrote:
I have a trip planned to Miami on October 12, and now I wonder if I should cancel it. The hotel is right on Miami beach. I understand there are massive cleanup operations in place but is one month enough for everything to get back to normal?

You'll be fine. Miami is fine. Yes we have electricity out in many places, but other than that everything is fine. We will be up and normal by Monday other than a few spots with no power.

Taking in inflation, this will not be one of the worst storms in history. It took the path of least destruction. The state will be ok. The middle keys got it the worst and it will take months for them to come back. Key West was spared the worst as well.

This is not Harvey, this is not Katrina and not Andrew. On Thursday and Friday morning it looked like it might have been, but thankfully it was weakened by Cuba landmass and took a turn towards the west and weaken again over Florida prior to Tampa. As for the OP saying building codes? Where in the world do you get that from? Florida has some of the best in the country if not the best. Here in Miami-Dade any new building built has to be engineered to withstand 170MPH winds! After Andrew it was changed to 146MPH in 1995. We have very fine building codes here. Pretty much any home is concrete with steel. No wood frames or manufactured homes in Southeast Florida.

All the flooding in Miami is gone. Damage was minimal from storm surge.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
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Channex757
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:34 pm

I would like to think that utilities in Florida start looking into some investment to take powerlines underground. Wires on poles just make more and more work when they get brought down by storms, and there seems to be a lot of wiring about that could do with hiding away safely under the street and not over it.

The same goes for telephone lines which are still used by many as well as carrying internet traffic.

Probably won't happen as it's much more complex than what I am suggesting but something worth looking into as it would reduce the amount of line damage in total after a storm.
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:21 am

My neighborhood has underground powerlines and while we lost power here for a briefly, it's back. Can't say the same for areas with above ground utilities. Transformers blew and trees toppled power lines. I agree that underground is the way to go.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
 
flymia
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:06 pm

Channex757 wrote:
I would like to think that utilities in Florida start looking into some investment to take powerlines underground. Wires on poles just make more and more work when they get brought down by storms, and there seems to be a lot of wiring about that could do with hiding away safely under the street and not over it.

The same goes for telephone lines which are still used by many as well as carrying internet traffic.

Probably won't happen as it's much more complex than what I am suggesting but something worth looking into as it would reduce the amount of line damage in total after a storm.


Many places do. The area I was in for the storm and where I live have underground lines. Does not make them perfect. Some places do need to be above ground and its a grid, one spot goes other spots go as well.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
ltbewr
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Re: Irma`s long term effects on Florida

Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:44 pm

One has to reconsider the rebuilding of the worst hit areas. Problems are that many may have their life savings in that house and property, developers have brought property to develop to make money and they vote or can buy the politicians and in turn the regulating authorities. That means more bailouts for damaged areas and new development continues where it shouldn't. There isn't enough tax money to buyout at former market prices the highest risk properties and condemnation proceedings could mean massive financial losses to property owners. So in the long term, Florida and many other places in the USA and world will continue to rebuild and expand development, it will just be slowed down a little for a while.

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