So the bidding will commence. There's zero chance that they'll land this, but anyway.......

https://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/new ... rters.html

I don't think a HQ needs to be at the logistics hub.

Memphis is a fine city and all. Partly Amazon is trying to escape Seattle's high house prices, heavy traffic and taxes. And weather maybe. Memphis should score pretty well. Nashville too. Realistically I see frontrunners as Austin and Denver, except Austin may lack the air service needed (and so would Memphis). Denver is likely, with PHL, ATL, IAH and DFW all possibilities too.

The HQ2 process will involve air service as an important component.

Flighty wrote:

I don't think a HQ needs to be at the logistics hub.

Memphis is a fine city and all. Partly Amazon is trying to escape Seattle's high house prices, heavy traffic and taxes. And weather maybe. Memphis should score pretty well. Nashville too. Realistically I see frontrunners as Austin and Denver, except Austin may lack the air service needed (and so would Memphis). Denver is likely, with PHL, ATL, IAH and DFW all possibilities too.

The HQ2 process will involve air service as an important component.

If they're trying to escape traffic and high prices, I'm not sure how much better Denver is than Seattle... I believe Austin also has pretty bad traffic as it has grown so fast.

I would think they would be inclined to pick more of a global city than Austin, Denver, Nashville, Memphis, or Philadelphia. Also I'd think Austin and Denver would pretty much be echo chambers if they're trying to gain different perspectives.

I'd think NYC, Chicago, LA, Miami, Houston, or Boston would be good choices, two of those being hard to make a case for given recent weather events! LA probably difficult to argue for as well due to it also being on the West Coast. Too much is made of housing costs, I'm afraid. There isn't any shortage of young people who want to rough it in a large city working for Amazon for 5-10 years.

Wait, isn't this supposed to be for a North American HQ? Why not Toronto?

But hey, what do I know? Maybe Austin is top-billed solely because of Whole Foods.

Memphis is a good choice. Why not St. Louis (smackdab in the middle of the country, within reach of everyone)? Kansas City?

It would make sense to make this HQ2 either on the East Coast (and you'll have the two Megalopoli of the US within reach) or somewhat more centrally located where it can serve as a secondary (not a co-primary) unit.

Austin is top billed because it has the talent pool and lower housing prices than California or Seattle. And great weather most of the year. And zero income taxes, like Washington. When you entice people to move from Washington, a monthly bill of $750-2000 just in state income taxes really nips. Especially if it is to a place arguably worse than Seattle.

Jetero, I agree with your choices too.

The problem going for Phoenix is mass transit. Much of our transit system has its service concentrated in central/south Phoenix, Tempe, and western Mesa, while most tech companies seem to choose Chandler or Scottsdale, two cities with less transit service (especially Chandler). Amazon did say it was looking for a city with access to mass transit.

1337Delta764 wrote:

The problem going for Phoenix is mass transit. Much of our transit system has its service concentrated in central/south Phoenix, Tempe, and western Mesa, while most tech companies seem to choose Chandler or Scottsdale, two cities with less transit service (especially Chandler). Amazon did say it was looking for a city with access to mass transit.

The problem with Phoenix is that it's Phoenix. I think they're more interested in real cities like Toronto, NY, Boston, DC and Chicago.

I was wondering if this would get posted.

I like this list of possible contenders:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-hq ... ontenders/

Metro area State Population
New York-Newark-Jersey City  NY Pop. 20,153,634
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim  CA Pop. 13,310,447
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin  IL Pop. 9,512,999
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington  TX Pop. 7,233,323
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria  DC Pop. 6,131,977
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington  PA Pop. 6,070,500
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell  GA Pop. 5,789,700
Boston-Cambridge-Newton  MA Pop. 4,794,447
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward  CA Pop. 4,679,166
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington  MN Pop. 3,551,036
San Diego-Carlsbad  CA Pop. 3,317,749
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood  CO Pop. 2,853,077
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson  MD Pop. 2,798,886
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia  NC Pop. 2,474,314
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro  OR Pop. 2,424,955
Pittsburgh  PA Pop. 2,342,299
Kansas City  MO Pop. 2,104,509
Austin-Round Rock  TX Pop. 2,056,405
Columbus  OH Pop. 2,041,520
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara  CA Pop. 1,978,816
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin  TN Pop. 1,865,298
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis  WI Pop. 1,572,482
Raleigh  NC Pop. 1,302,946
Richmond  VA Pop. 1,281,708
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford  CT Pop. 1,206,836
Rochester  NY Pop. 1,078,879

I think Kansas City is a great location for this. Denver is has got to be a favorite too. But I am sure it will be gamed as much as possible by communities wanting it. I would love to see it in my hometown of San Diego but I just don't that happening at all. I also do not see it being any place like NYC, Chicago, LA, San Fransisco, Miami, Houston, or Boston. Metro areas too big to care really, I think Amazon wants to be a bigger fish in the pool not just one of many.

Tugg

Look at states with low taxes and are willing to offer incentive packages.....

Tugger wrote:

I was wondering if this would get posted.

I like this list of possible contenders:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-hq ... ontenders/

Metro area State Population
New York-Newark-Jersey City  NY Pop. 20,153,634
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim  CA Pop. 13,310,447
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin  IL Pop. 9,512,999
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington  TX Pop. 7,233,323
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria  DC Pop. 6,131,977
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington  PA Pop. 6,070,500
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell  GA Pop. 5,789,700
Boston-Cambridge-Newton  MA Pop. 4,794,447
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward  CA Pop. 4,679,166
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington  MN Pop. 3,551,036
San Diego-Carlsbad  CA Pop. 3,317,749
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood  CO Pop. 2,853,077
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson  MD Pop. 2,798,886
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia  NC Pop. 2,474,314
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro  OR Pop. 2,424,955
Pittsburgh  PA Pop. 2,342,299
Kansas City  MO Pop. 2,104,509
Austin-Round Rock  TX Pop. 2,056,405
Columbus  OH Pop. 2,041,520
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara  CA Pop. 1,978,816
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin  TN Pop. 1,865,298
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis  WI Pop. 1,572,482
Raleigh  NC Pop. 1,302,946
Richmond  VA Pop. 1,281,708
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford  CT Pop. 1,206,836
Rochester  NY Pop. 1,078,879

I think Kansas City is a great location for this. Denver is has got to be a favorite too. But I am sure it will be gamed as much as possible by communities wanting it. I would love to see it in my hometown of San Diego but I just don't that happening at all. I also do not see it being any place like NYC, Chicago, LA, Miami, Houston, or Boston. Metro areas too big to care really, I think Amazon wants to be a bigger fish in the pool not just one of many.

Tugg

I'm sorry but that's just weird (dare I say dumb) logic.

If Amazon is really interested in a large job market, what matters is the absolute number of people with a Bachelors Degree or Graduate Degree than the share of such.

What does it matter that Rochester has 37.3% of residents with a degree? 37% of 1m is still way lower than 20% of 6m.

jetwet1 wrote:

Look at states with low taxes and are willing to offer incentive packages.....

Incentives for high taxes that supposedly don't exist?!

jetero wrote:

Tugger wrote:

I was wondering if this would get posted.

I like this list of possible contenders:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-hq ... ontenders/

Metro area State Population
New York-Newark-Jersey City  NY Pop. 20,153,634
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim  CA Pop. 13,310,447
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin  IL Pop. 9,512,999
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington  TX Pop. 7,233,323
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria  DC Pop. 6,131,977
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington  PA Pop. 6,070,500
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell  GA Pop. 5,789,700
Boston-Cambridge-Newton  MA Pop. 4,794,447
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward  CA Pop. 4,679,166
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington  MN Pop. 3,551,036
San Diego-Carlsbad  CA Pop. 3,317,749
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood  CO Pop. 2,853,077
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson  MD Pop. 2,798,886
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia  NC Pop. 2,474,314
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro  OR Pop. 2,424,955
Pittsburgh  PA Pop. 2,342,299
Kansas City  MO Pop. 2,104,509
Austin-Round Rock  TX Pop. 2,056,405
Columbus  OH Pop. 2,041,520
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara  CA Pop. 1,978,816
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin  TN Pop. 1,865,298
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis  WI Pop. 1,572,482
Raleigh  NC Pop. 1,302,946
Richmond  VA Pop. 1,281,708
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford  CT Pop. 1,206,836
Rochester  NY Pop. 1,078,879

I think Kansas City is a great location for this. Denver is has got to be a favorite too. But I am sure it will be gamed as much as possible by communities wanting it. I would love to see it in my hometown of San Diego but I just don't that happening at all. I also do not see it being any place like NYC, Chicago, LA, Miami, Houston, or Boston. Metro areas too big to care really, I think Amazon wants to be a bigger fish in the pool not just one of many.

Tugg

I'm sorry but that's just weird (dare I say dumb) logic.

If Amazon is really interested in a large job market, what matters is the absolute number of people with a Bachelors Degree or Graduate Degree than the share of such.

What does it matter that Rochester has 37.3% of residents with a degree? 37% of 1m is still way lower than 20% of 6m.

I'm not looking at the "degrees" thing. Just the communities and areas (Weirdly the map is missing several areas, Denver being the most obvious). I still think that the larger cities mentioned above are unlikely to get this HQ. If anything you could also say it will have a higher likelihood for competition for top employees and who need that? You need a strong vibrant community with all the access elements they want with a strong tech workforce where Amazon can have a larger pool of employees but also be one of the larger employers of the area. You also get into cost of living which is one major reason why I don't think San Diego has a chance (in addition to being on the west coast).

Tugg

jetero wrote:

jetwet1 wrote:

Look at states with low taxes and are willing to offer incentive packages.....

Incentives for high taxes that supposedly don't exist?!

Property or other unique area taxes, zoning or permitting, low cost loans, etc.

Tugg

jetwet1 wrote:

Look at states with low taxes and are willing to offer incentive packages.....

As stated, Amazon is going out for the best bid.
One Amazon and a lot of John's looking for a date to put it nicely.
Financial incentives will trump other requirements.

Okie

Tugger wrote:

jetero wrote:

jetwet1 wrote:

Look at states with low taxes and are willing to offer incentive packages.....

Incentives for high taxes that supposedly don't exist?!

Property or other unique area taxes, zoning or permitting, low cost loans, etc.

Tugg

If you have to abate them significantly to be competitive, then they're by definition not "low."

Tugger wrote:

I'm not looking at the "degrees" thing. Just the communities and areas (Weirdly the map is missing several areas, Denver being the most obvious).

But that's exactly the map you posted.

Tugger wrote:

I still think that the larger cities mentioned above are unlikely to get this HQ.

I disagree.

Tugger wrote:

If anything you could also say it will have a higher likelihood for competition for top employees and who need that? You need a strong vibrant community with all the access elements they want with a strong tech workforce where Amazon can have a larger pool of employees but also be one of the larger employers of the area.

So go to a place with well-educated, unemployed people or people already employed (more than likely in a different sector) with the intention of stealing them away and making it a "company town"?

What you are arguing for is counter to agglomeration economies, except when it comes to creating a back office operation. There's a reason auto companies that don't even manufacture there have offices in Detroit, why energy is increasingly concentrated in Houston, why the thought center of IT is the Silicon Valley, etc.

The only reason they'd locate in Kansas City is because they wanted to create nothing more than a back-office operation.

Tugger wrote:

You also get into cost of living which is one major reason why I don't think San Diego has a chance (in addition to being on the west coast).

I think cost of living is overblown for the type of people Amazon probably wants to hire.

But of course I could be wrong.

I think we safely can rule out Portland due to its proximity to Seattle despite being named as a contender on that map.

I think they will look East Of the Mississippi. Sourth Carolina or North Carolina would seem like Strong Contenders, but then again, they may look to Austin and Dallas area as well.

jetero wrote:

The only reason they'd locate in Kansas City is because they wanted to create nothing more than a back-office operation.

I agree that I could be wrong, this is all conjecture on a aviation discussion board. But I do think you are underestimating KC. It has well over a 100,000 people employed in tech, many that could cross over to Amazon. And obviously more would come, but it is not some dead end place for employees to chance it all to go work for one company. Companies like Garmin, Spint/Nextel, Cerner, and CenturyLink are headquartered there. Amazon would be the biggest name but it wouldn't be the only.

Besides, I kinda feel for KCI, I really want to see it get revamped and see it thrive (no offense to those who love it as is ) and something like this could help in that.

So I of course cannot say "there, they will win" but it seems like a darn smart place to go.

Tugg

Tugger wrote:

jetero wrote:

The only reason they'd locate in Kansas City is because they wanted to create nothing more than a back-office operation.

I agree that I could be wrong, this is all conjecture on a aviation discussion board. But I do think you are underestimating KC. It has well over a 100,000 people employed in tech, many that could cross over to Amazon. And obviously more would come, but it is not some dead end place for employees to chance it all to go work for one company. Companies like Garmin, Spint/Nextel, Cerner, and CenturyLink are headquartered there. Amazon would be the biggest name but it wouldn't be the only.

Besides, I kinda feel for KCI, I really want to see it get revamped and see it thrive (no offense to those who love it as is ) and something like this could help in that.

So I of course cannot say "there, they will win" but it seems like a darn smart place to go.

Tugg

Nothing wrong with pulling for the underdog!

100k in tech in Kansas City?! A metro area with 1m jobs in total?! That seems like something out of a chamber of commerce brochure. It must include everyone working for Sprint as a "tech worker," including those in Accounting, Finance, and all the support functions. I live in Houston, so that sounds like one of the figures ours often spout, e.g., that only 50% of the economy is reliant on energy sector (or one I saw the other day for DC saying only 20% of the economy was reliant on the government sector)!

I think they probably already know where they want to go. It'll either be a no-brainer like Boston or a "big-enough, up-and-coming good-enough for hipsters" place like Austin or Nashville as people have suggested (or even Charlotte). The problem is none of those places is particularly diverse if that's what they're looking for. If it's Dallas or even Atlanta, which are both way more diverse, both way more "real cities" (with all the visibly attendant problems that descriptor means--i.e., not as easily "swept under the rug") and obviously much better connected by air, I'd be surprised. Both have always struck me as kind of blah, soulless, closed, suburby, corporate-type places. But I'm obviously biased.

Amazon is unlike other companies that are searching for office space. For many other companies, their #1 priority is about money; they want the city / state that can give the biggest tax break. Instead, I believe Amazon's #1 priority is technical talent and they will want the following three things:

1) a location that has a large existing base of developers and computer programmers
2) a location where the talent who move there (i.e., existing Amazon employees relocating from Seattle) will want to stay and live
3) a location that is near major research universities so there's a continuing pipeline for new talent

While these criteria may suggest only top tier cities, I believe that Amazon is also a cost conscious company so they are not going to the most expensive cities like NYC or DC. I think Philly, Boston, or Toronto are certainly contenders that would fit the three points from above without being overly costly places to live.

max999 wrote:

Amazon is unlike other companies that are searching for office space. For many other companies, their #1 priority is about money; they want the city / state that can give the biggest tax break. Instead, I believe Amazon's #1 priority is technical talent and they will want the following three things:

1) a location that has a large existing base of developers and computer programmers
2) a location where the talent who move there (i.e., existing Amazon employees relocating from Seattle) will want to stay and live
3) a location that is near major research universities so there's a continuing pipeline for new talent

While these criteria may suggest only top tier cities, I believe that Amazon is also a cost conscious company so they are not going to the most expensive cities like NYC or DC. I think Philly, Boston, or Toronto are certainly contenders that would fit the three points from above without being overly costly places to live.

I think that's a fair analysis, and I agree on the 3 most likely cities. Philly would be nice since I'm in the Lehigh Valley.

I wish they would consider cities in the same orbit as a larger one. For example, Newark, NJ. Near NYC, mass transit (bus, trains, PATH to JC and NYC). A major tech college and a branch of Rutgers in the city and other colleges nearby. Plenty of places to put a building to their specs near Penn Station. Has a major sports arena (NHL Devils) and performance venue. A major corporate HQ (Prudential). EWR just 2 miles of 'downtown'. Great restaurants (in the 'ironbound' district just east of Penn Station). The bad is high housing and taxes, Newark itself not so nice west of the downtown, gentrification chasing out many non-White and affordable housing units, too many would want to use cars to go to work.

ltbewr wrote:

I wish they would consider cities in the same orbit as a larger one. For example, Newark, NJ. Near NYC, mass transit (bus, trains, PATH to JC and NYC). A major tech college and a branch of Rutgers in the city and other colleges nearby. Plenty of places to put a building to their specs near Penn Station. Has a major sports arena (NHL Devils) and performance venue. A major corporate HQ (Prudential). EWR just 2 miles of 'downtown'. Great restaurants (in the 'ironbound' district just east of Penn Station). The bad is high housing and taxes, Newark itself not so nice west of the downtown, gentrification chasing out many non-White and affordable housing units, too many would want to use cars to go to work.

I cannot remember the last time someone said something the least bit positive about Newark.

cjg225 wrote:

ltbewr wrote:

I wish they would consider cities in the same orbit as a larger one. For example, Newark, NJ. Near NYC, mass trans[twoid][/twoid]it (bus, trains, PATH to JC and NYC). A major tech college and a branch of Rutgers in the city and other colleges nearby. Plenty of places to put a building to their specs near Penn Station. Has a major sports arena (NHL Devils) and performance venue. A major corporate HQ (Prudential). EWR just 2 miles of 'downtown'. Great restaurants (in the 'ironbound' district just east of Penn Station). The bad is high housing and taxes, Newark itself not so nice west of the downtown, gentrification chasing out many non-White and affordable housing units, too many would want to use cars to go to work.

I cannot remember the last time someone said something the least bit positive about Newark.

Very adult response to a thoughtful post.

Go Nittany Lions!

My positive view of Newark is as I live near it, I went to college (Rutgers Newark in the mid 1970's - BA in 1977) so seen the city evolve and slowly improve. Oh, they have a recently opened Whole Foods on Broad Street (the main business street of the city) and Audible has a facility there so parts of Amazon already there. Panasonic has its USA HQ in Newark too. Due to NJIT, Rutgers-Newark and other colleges (state and private) in the area, there is a potential tech center developing. The Newark area offers a diverse mix of people, NJ is reasonable as to social issues (like ok with Gay marriage).

Tugger wrote:

I was wondering if this would get posted.

I like this list of possible contenders:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-hq ... ontenders/

Metro area State Population
New York-Newark-Jersey City  NY Pop. 20,153,634
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim  CA Pop. 13,310,447
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin  IL Pop. 9,512,999
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington  TX Pop. 7,233,323
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria  DC Pop. 6,131,977
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington  PA Pop. 6,070,500
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell  GA Pop. 5,789,700
Boston-Cambridge-Newton  MA Pop. 4,794,447
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward  CA Pop. 4,679,166
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington  MN Pop. 3,551,036
San Diego-Carlsbad  CA Pop. 3,317,749
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood  CO Pop. 2,853,077
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson  MD Pop. 2,798,886
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia  NC Pop. 2,474,314
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro  OR Pop. 2,424,955
Pittsburgh  PA Pop. 2,342,299
Kansas City  MO Pop. 2,104,509
Austin-Round Rock  TX Pop. 2,056,405
Columbus  OH Pop. 2,041,520
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara  CA Pop. 1,978,816
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin  TN Pop. 1,865,298
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis  WI Pop. 1,572,482
Raleigh  NC Pop. 1,302,946
Richmond  VA Pop. 1,281,708
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford  CT Pop. 1,206,836
Rochester  NY Pop. 1,078,879

I think Kansas City is a great location for this. Denver is has got to be a favorite too. But I am sure it will be gamed as much as possible by communities wanting it. I would love to see it in my hometown of San Diego but I just don't that happening at all. I also do not see it being any place like NYC, Chicago, LA, San Fransisco, Miami, Houston, or Boston. Metro areas too big to care really, I think Amazon wants to be a bigger fish in the pool not just one of many.

Tugg

Whoever took these stats left St. Louis out. It fits right between Denver and Baltimore and would serve as a much better location than Kansas City. Kansas City has no mass transit system, the airport is freakin 40 minutes away from the city itself and only no major universities.

ltbewr wrote:

My positive view of Newark is as I live near it, I went to college (Rutgers Newark in the mid 1970's - BA in 1977) so seen the city evolve and slowly improve. Oh, they have a recently opened (Whole Foods on Broad Street (the main business street of the city) and Audible has a facility there so parts of Amazon already there. Panasonic has its USA HQ in Newark too. Due to NJIT, Rutgers-Newark and other colleges (state and private) in the area, there is a potential tech center developing. The Newark area offers a diverse mix of people, NJ is reasonable as to social issues (like ok with Gay marriage).

I agree with your sentiments. My vote is now with Newark! Kansas City would also be a good runner-up. Never thought I would make those statements. I'm a sucker for people who love their cities as much as I do. (Although Tugger is from San Diego ... what's the back story? Father worked for TWA? Had some good BBQ? A fan of early shopping center design?)

julsstlouis wrote:

Tugger wrote:

I was wondering if this would get posted.

I like this list of possible contenders:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-hq ... ontenders/

Metro area State Population
New York-Newark-Jersey City  NY Pop. 20,153,634
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim  CA Pop. 13,310,447
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin  IL Pop. 9,512,999
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington  TX Pop. 7,233,323
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria  DC Pop. 6,131,977
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington  PA Pop. 6,070,500
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell  GA Pop. 5,789,700
Boston-Cambridge-Newton  MA Pop. 4,794,447
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward  CA Pop. 4,679,166
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington  MN Pop. 3,551,036
San Diego-Carlsbad  CA Pop. 3,317,749
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood  CO Pop. 2,853,077
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson  MD Pop. 2,798,886
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia  NC Pop. 2,474,314
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro  OR Pop. 2,424,955
Pittsburgh  PA Pop. 2,342,299
Kansas City  MO Pop. 2,104,509
Austin-Round Rock  TX Pop. 2,056,405
Columbus  OH Pop. 2,041,520
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara  CA Pop. 1,978,816
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin  TN Pop. 1,865,298
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis  WI Pop. 1,572,482
Raleigh  NC Pop. 1,302,946
Richmond  VA Pop. 1,281,708
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford  CT Pop. 1,206,836
Rochester  NY Pop. 1,078,879

I think Kansas City is a great location for this. Denver is has got to be a favorite too. But I am sure it will be gamed as much as possible by communities wanting it. I would love to see it in my hometown of San Diego but I just don't that happening at all. I also do not see it being any place like NYC, Chicago, LA, San Fransisco, Miami, Houston, or Boston. Metro areas too big to care really, I think Amazon wants to be a bigger fish in the pool not just one of many.

Tugg

Whoever took these stats left St. Louis out. It fits right between Denver and Baltimore and would serve as a much better location than Kansas City. Kansas City has no mass transit system, the airport is freakin 40 minutes away from the city itself and only no major universities.

The stats are dumb (see above). It's proportion of people with a college degree without regard to the absolute number who actually have one.

STL would also be a good choice, in my little knowledge it seems to have a pretty developed and ingrained corporate culture, much like Cincinnati.

Now that I'm thinking about it, no one's brought up Cincinnati, the hub of Amazon Prime Air.

If I had to choose, I'd go Toronto first, followed by Philly.

(Nice to see some good STL-KC rivalry. How did the TW people ever reconcile that?!)

The map everyone keeps quoting also has CLE and IND in solid green... but those cities are not even in the list. Not reliable data. Besides I think a better metric is educated young people:
https://www.americaninno.com/dc/top-cities-for-millennials-educated-2/


Here are speculative short lists of potential contenders from 3 different tech industry publications:
PC Mag:
https://www.pcmag.com/news/356056/6-cities-amazon-should-consider-for-its-second-us-headquarte

Geekwire:
https://www.geekwire.com/2017/six-cities-amazon-consider-second-headquarters/

Venturebeat:
https://venturebeat.com/2017/09/07/5-u-s-cities-amazon-should-consider-for-hq2/


My biased ass loves that Pittsburgh is the only city on all 3 lists.

Tugger, well done, you're the one who introduced the stupid map!

Of course I love you otherwise.

flyPIT wrote:

The map everyone keeps quoting also has CLE and IND in solid green... but those cities are not even in the list. Not reliable data. Besides I think a better metric is educated young people:
https://www.americaninno.com/dc/top-cities-for-millennials-educated-2/


Here are speculative short lists of potential contenders from 3 different tech industry publications:
PC Mag:
https://www.pcmag.com/news/356056/6-cities-amazon-should-consider-for-its-second-us-headquarte

Geekwire:
https://www.geekwire.com/2017/six-cities-amazon-consider-second-headquarters/

Venturebeat:
https://venturebeat.com/2017/09/07/5-u-s-cities-amazon-should-consider-for-hq2/


My biased ass loves that Pittsburgh is the only city on all 3 lists.

Pittsburgh now has my vote. Only because I love that city based on personal experience, multiple times. (What a great city!)

jetero wrote:

jetwet1 wrote:

Look at states with low taxes and are willing to offer incentive packages.....

Incentives for high taxes that supposedly don't exist?!

No, I mean incentive packages on top of the low taxes.

To give you an example, my home state of Nevada is very aggressive when it comes to this, for instance.

Sales tax on capital project equipment goes from 8.25% down to 2%
Business tax goes from 1.475% down to .75%
Personal property taxes for employees moving to Nevada reduction of up to 50% for 10 years or in the case of data centers etc employees 75% for 10 years on the average Clark County home that means yearly property taxes of $300........
$2000 per employee hired cash money

To give you an idea, when Faraday Future was shopping for sites, Nevada put together a package worth $335 million for them (4500 employees projected at the time), for a company like Amazon offering 50,000 jobs, Nevada, Clark County, the City of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson will put together a multi billion dollar package.

In the business community here we are well aware that we have been lagging on the IT side, there have been a number of meetings already about this and how to attract companies and investment, along with the work force, we understand the need to diversify our economy. UNLV is also getting up to speed on the IT side and I can say with 100% certainty, they will sit down with Amazon and figure out their needs and tailor courses to meet them.

And of course we have the airport.

Will we be able to attract them, who knows at this point, I can say we will give it one hell of a shot.

jetwet1 wrote:

jetero wrote:

jetwet1 wrote:

Look at states with low taxes and are willing to offer incentive packages.....

Incentives for high taxes that supposedly don't exist?!

No, I mean incentive packages on top of the low taxes.

To give you an example, my home state of Nevada is very aggressive when it comes to this, for instance.

Sales tax on capital project equipment goes from 8.25% down to 2%
Business tax goes from 1.475% down to .75%
Personal property taxes for employees moving to Nevada reduction of up to 50% for 10 years or in the case of data centers etc employees 75% for 10 years on the average Clark County home that means yearly property taxes of $300........
$2000 per employee hired cash money

To give you an idea, when Faraday Future was shopping for sites, Nevada put together a package worth $335 million for them (4500 employees projected at the time), for a company like Amazon offering 50,000 jobs, Nevada, Clark County, the City of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson will put together a multi billion dollar package.

In the business community here we are well aware that we have been lagging on the IT side, there have been a number of meetings already about this and how to attract companies and investment, along with the work force, we understand the need to diversify our economy. UNLV is also getting up to speed on the IT side and I can say with 100% certainty, they will sit down with Amazon and figure out their needs and tailor courses to meet them.

And of course we have the airport.

Will we be able to attract them, who knows at this point, I can say we will give it one hell of a shot.

Nevada? Why are western cities even being brought up, it would make zero sense for Amazon to build another HQ on the west coast, so let's just rule out PDX, SFO, SJC, SAN, LAX, LAS, BOI, PHX, SLC, and maybe even DEN or any other city west of the Rockies.

Also NC (CLT/RDU) is less likely, because of the bathroom law debacle.
YYZ/NYC are unlikely due to cost, considering that is part of the reason they adding outside of SEA.

Also, rule out CHI, because IL is a financial mess right now and will not be able to provide incentives that other states can. Furthermore, the east coast is much more expensive and competitive than the midwest and south, so I expect a location in the midwest or south.

ATL would be an interesting choice, but there is a lack of land and out of this world congestion. They have land, but it's a little here and a little there. Not large swaths which is what Amazon would want.

My bets are states without labor unions, no state tax, and that are growing with other tech industries: Texas, Colorado, Virginia, Pensylvania, and Indiana

Also BOS: "It’s hard to imagine where the Boston region would find the room for a company that will ultimately want up to eight million square feet of office space (the Pentagon, for comparison, has 6.6 million). Mayor Marty Walsh also said on Thursday that Boston is “not going to get into a bidding war with another city over something like this.” And it’s pretty clear that a bidding war is what Amazon wants."

DC: "land in the District of Columbia is expensive and increasingly hard to come by. And a far-flung suburban campus, like those many government contractors have in Northern Virginia, seems unlikely for a company that has grown out of a proudly urban home in downtown Seattle."

Amazon also asked applicants to provide their traffic congestion rankings during peak commuting hours: http://inrix.com/scorecard/
So in terms of traffic AUS, DFW, ATL, MIA, WAS, BOS, CHI, HOU, and MSP rank extremely high in terms of traffic congestion

Yeah, because Seattle is just a breeze to drive around.

This has to be some sort of publicity stunt.

8 million square feet of office space?! For what?!

jetero wrote:

Yeah, because Seattle is just a breeze to drive around.

Uh, yeah thanks for proving my point, a place that doesn't have lots of traffic is probably high on their list...

Midwestindy wrote:

Amazon also asked applicants to provide their traffic congestion rankings during peak commuting hours: http://inrix.com/scorecard/
So in terms of traffic AUS, DFW, ATL, MIA, WAS, BOS, CHI, HOU, and MSP rank extremely high in terms of traffic congestion

Well then they can rule out LA. Didnt know we have the worst traffic in the world, beating cities such as Moscow, Sao Paulo and Jakarta.


Anyway, doubt Amazon will come to LA as I dont see the point of having the 2nd HQ on the West Coast. Not sure I am too saddened by the lost opportunity as it would just add to the traffic congestion and further increase house prices in the LA area.

Midwestindy wrote:

jetero wrote:

Yeah, because Seattle is just a breeze to drive around.

Uh, yeah thanks for proving my point, a place that doesn't have lots of traffic is probably high on their list...

Well they might as well close the original HQ if that's the criteria.

These things are boilerplate, like saying "we want a city with parks and a good work-life balance." The sad thing is how much government resources are spent chasing after them.

I'm sure Jeff has already made up his mind.

Midwestindy wrote:

Nevada? Why are western cities even being brought up, it would make zero sense for Amazon to build another HQ on the west coast, so let's just rule out PDX, SFO, SJC, SAN, LAX, LAS, BOI, PHX, SLC, and maybe even DEN or any other city west of the Rockies.

My bets are states without labor unions, no state tax, and that are growing with other tech industries: Texas, Colorado, Virginia, Pensylvania, and Indiana

As I said, I am most familiar with NV's system and what it can offer and what size package the local/state could put together, however, I tend to agree with you somewhat, though there are some areas around Atlanta that may be appealing for something of this size, my wifes company is setting up it's east coast HQ in Greensboro, they came up with a nice incentive package for them but what really sold it was the real estate prices.

However, I wouldn't be so quick to rule out a west coast city, if a company is willing to pay enough finding people who will work to a different time schedule isn't an issue.

jetero wrote:

The sad thing is how much government resources are spent chasing after them.

I'm sure Jeff has already made up his mind.

Local/State governments have offices set up already just for this situation, though rarely on something of this scale, it's just a matter of combining programs and coming up with the numbers, then the lawyers get involved to make sure the city/regional government is protected (as was needed in the case of Faraday Future), the office is already budgeted for, so use it.

And yes, I am sure Jeff has a pretty good idea where he wants to go.

[quote="Flighty"]I don't think a HQ needs to be at the logistics hub.

Memphis is a fine city and all. Partly Amazon is trying to escape Seattle's high house prices, heavy traffic and taxes.[quote]

Amazon has a lot to do with Seattle's high housing prices and hideous traffic. The spikes in both since they moved to South Lake Union are very noticeable. Same thing will happen wherever they put HQ2.

I think Abbott's special session circus this past year 86'ed Texas out of the running. I'd put $1 on Denver.

jetwet wrote:

jetero wrote:

The sad thing is how much government resources are spent chasing after them.

I'm sure Jeff has already made up his mind.

Local/State governments have offices set up already just for this situation

They shouldn't though. That's the problem. I really wish these things were against the law by way of the interstate
commerce clause.

50,000 jobs will have a large impact on all but the biggest job markets in North America. With that being said, based on personal experience, Amazon is more than willing to look beyond the local job market and bring in who they need to fill positions. That philosophy requires a either a metro area people want to move to or one that Amazon can develop into their own image. This will require free/cheap land in an urban area. Remember, Amazon could have built an impressive suburban campus in Seattle, like Microsoft and Expedia, but they decided to go big and revitalized Seattle's downtown and adjacent communities.

With this though in mind, here are my thoughts about a few metros that could make the cut:

Minneapolis/St. Paul - The metro has a lot going for it, good universities, a well educated populous/solid workforce, good schools, active population, the community has made impressive investments in public transportation, and the airport is an important hub for a major airline. Additionally, I think downtown St. Paul could be ripe to absorb a large investment. I am sure the local politicians will probably offer the old Ford truck plant near the airport, but I think the buildings there will be limited to 10 stories due to its proximity to the airport and I don't know if the plot of land will be quite large enough for what Amazon needs.

Detroit - Amazon could come in and have the pick of the litter when it comes to developing downtown Detroit in its image. Other advantages for Detroit is its airport, being in the eastern time zone, local governments willing to bend over backwards to give them what they need, and the metro slowly but surly reviving itself and becoming more "cool." A disadvantage will be the local education environment, but I think local universities would be willing to work with Amazon to develop programs to funnel into Amazon and the University of Michigan is down the road. Detroit also has an image problem and I wonder with all of the other challenges Amazon wants to take on that big of a project.

Philadelphia - This is an interesting possibility. The city has a lot going for it, but there is a lot of room for growth and Amazon could be the shot in the arm to once again make this city a crown jewel on the east coast. Will the local governments get out of their own way and make it happen?

Kansas City - Might be a dark horse, but the city has made a lot of progress including a new public transportation system. The issue is no real prominent university to draw talent from and an airport that is a bit out there and inadequate.

Pittsburgh - This city has a lot going for it and I could see Amazon help move this city to the next level.

Cities I am less than thrilled about:

Austin - Yes, it is a popular choice for a variety of reasons and yes, Whole Foods has their HQ there, but I don't know if the city could absorb that many jobs. I work for a company that has a presence there and filling jobs is apparently difficult and I have heard the government is not exactly easy to work with.

Dallas - This city seems to be the easy choice for corporate re-location/expansion for a wide variety of reasons. Amazon could make the move here but I don't think they will because I believe Amazon is looking for something different than what Dallas has to offer and other cities will roll out the red carpet (incentives) making it easy to pass over Dallas.

Mountain/Pacific Time Zones - Too close to Seattle and don't get the benefit of spanning the entire country, but I think Denver and Phoenix would be good choices, each for their own reasons.

Toronto - It could happen, but I think there is too much pressure to keep the jobs in the US.

I'd love to see the City of Houston come in with a sweet deal for this!

There's corporate real estate signs all over and the housing market is rebounding, especially in areas where there is less freeway congestion at rush hour (Eastex Freeway), the light rail is expanding, and they are smack in the middle of 2 very busy airports and a good amount of universities within a 70 mile radius.

dc-9-10 wrote:

Detroit - Amazon could come in and have the pick of the litter when it comes to developing downtown Detroit in its image. Other advantages for Detroit is its airport, being in the eastern time zone, local governments willing to bend over backwards to give them what they need, and the metro slowly but surly reviving itself and becoming more "cool." A disadvantage will be the local education environment, but I think local universities would be willing to work with Amazon to develop programs to funnel into Amazon and the University of Michigan is down the road. Detroit also has an image problem and I wonder with all of the other challenges Amazon wants to take on that big of a project.

I never thought about Detroit. And with the recent downturn of the area, I'm sure the city and the state will want the boost it could provide. The infrastructure is there; it just needs money for renovations.

TWA772LR wrote:

I'd love to see the City of Houston come in with a sweet deal for this!

There's corporate real estate signs all over and the housing market is rebounding, especially in areas where there is less freeway congestion at rush hour (Eastex Freeway), the light rail is expanding, and they are smack in the middle of 2 very busy airports and a good amount of universities within a 70 mile radius.

With the corporate culture that Amazon tries to espouse embracing diversity, I doubt that any red state, especially one that so unabashedly seeks to discriminate, has any chance. Who wants to live in Houston anyways?

330west wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

I'd love to see the City of Houston come in with a sweet deal for this!

There's corporate real estate signs all over and the housing market is rebounding, especially in areas where there is less freeway congestion at rush hour (Eastex Freeway), the light rail is expanding, and they are smack in the middle of 2 very busy airports and a good amount of universities within a 70 mile radius.

With the corporate culture that Amazon tries to espouse embracing diversity, I doubt that any red state, especially one that so unabashedly seeks to discriminate, has any chance. Who wants to live in Houston anyways?

They said "business friendly" which rules out most blue states. I expect a sun belt red state, perhaps North Carolina.

Flighty wrote:

330west wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

I'd love to see the City of Houston come in with a sweet deal for this!

There's corporate real estate signs all over and the housing market is rebounding, especially in areas where there is less freeway congestion at rush hour (Eastex Freeway), the light rail is expanding, and they are smack in the middle of 2 very busy airports and a good amount of universities within a 70 mile radius.

With the corporate culture that Amazon tries to espouse embracing diversity, I doubt that any red state, especially one that so unabashedly seeks to discriminate, has any chance. Who wants to live in Houston anyways?

They said "business friendly" which rules out most blue states. I expect a sun belt red state, perhaps North Carolina.

Bathroom bill....remember....