1. Incorrect. At the moment, we're in ENSO-neutral conditions; not cold enough for La Niña to be active, and it's expected to remain as such through the rest of the year.
2. ENSO is not a "weather" cycle; it's a climate cycle. Weather is instantaneous meteorological conditions (it's rainy today; it's sunny and hot today); climate is long-term weather conditions (summer months are hot and dry; winter months are mild and wet). What ENSO modifies is a region's climate. If La Niña is active (ENSO-positive), the equatorial western Pacific is unusually hot and wet while the equatorial eastern Pacific will be cooler and drier; the reverse happens during ENSO-negative (El Niño) where the pool of warm water moves to the east and causes the equatorial eastern Pacific to be warmer and wetter than normal while the equatorial western Pacific will be warm but drier than normal.
3. You need to append the statement with "on average". Some episodes can last a year or two. Good rule of thumb is about 3-4 years on average you'll see one or the other. Most of the time, ENSO-neutral conditions prevail.
Thanks for the explanation, very insightful, but I think we agree that that there are climate cycles (ENSO or La Nina) that have an effect on the strength of the Atlantic hurricanes (also the Pacific hurricanes/cyclones).
Atlantic Storms are increasingly occurring more frequently and with more intensity (Ditto Pacific).
You'll happily ignore that fact because they haven't hit the US or conform with your views but even your claimed 'record hurricane drought' is wrong, with just a simple search you'll see several made US landfall in the last 12 years.
I am not a climate change denier, but I am a bigger believer in facts and these are the facts:
- The last very strong year with Atlantic storms/hurricanes was 2005 with 28 named storms/hurricanes in that year. 2005 was also the where we had hurricane Wilma, which is considered the strongest recorded Atlantic hurricane.
- Then we had 3 strong years in 2010, 2011 and 2012 with 19 named storms/hurricanes in each year.
- In 2014 and 2015 (also to some extent 2016) we had very calm years, with 8 to 11 named storms/hurricanes in those years and I very clearly remember that a lot of those storms/hurricanes didn't even make any major landfall and were weaker storms.
- Strong hurricanes (Cat 5) have always existed in the past and is not a new phenomenon
Yes, there is one fact that there is a small trend over a period of over 200 years, that there are more reported hurricanes, BUT we need to account that also over the same period of time we have better meteorological systems, satellites and technology that helps us find these hurricanes and report them. I am still not denying, but we need to account for all these facts.
But I can tell you one thing, and that is a big fact and no denying there, the media reporting is becoming more intense and sensationalistic every time! Media lives off of this and the more they can hype up the action the more viewers they get (translates to $$$). And this extreme reporting combined with social media, can create a false impression that things are getting worst, but that is just your perception. So every time the media starts throwing around headlines like "strongest hurricane in history" I check up first.
We in the Caribbean usually follow the hurricane seasons very intensely (non-sensationalistic), since our lives depend on it and we notice stronger and weaker hurricanes seasons.
Lastly I would like to add, that hurricane Irma has lost significant force overnight and became a Cat 4 and if this continues it might become a Cat 3 by the time it hits Florida tomorrow. Right now I am just more scared for SXM and the other small islands around, since Hurricane Jose will hit them Saturday night and Sunday and they have some serious things to take care off.
For example I have just read that there are 60 patients on SXM that urgently need dialysis and if not flown out before Saturday night they might be in serious trouble. And with all the damage, Hurricane Jose can do some serious follow up damage over there. With all eyes on Florida, those islands might just be ignored by the bigger media outlets.