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einsteinboricua
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:19 am

Redd wrote:
I always wondered why the building techniques in hurricane prone areas are built in the North American style like this

Image

I can attest that house in PR DO NOT look like this. They're built with reinforced concrete and the roofs are flat.

Everyone at work today kept asking me if my family would be safe and whether they'd need to seek shelter. Our house has been able to withstand cat3 winds (Georges, 1998) and aside from our water tank cap flying off, it emerged unscathed. Looking at data, only certain sections of the northeast were due to receive hurricane force winds (but not even close to cat 3 winds) so if there's any destruction it'll probably be due to flooding and downed trees.

Why do houses in FL and other coastal regions in the US look like this, I don't know. My current house is a townhouse (and it's smack-dab in the center) so I'm not concerned about the whole structure flying off. The roof, however, is a different matter.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
airtechy
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:25 am

The new Florida building codes (I think they came in after what Andrew did in Miami) would not allow the house above to be build. You basically can't build a house with a roof that has gable ends as the wind gets under the roof through the gables and lifts it off. The roof has to constructed as a hip roof which on all sides channels the wind upwards. My house was build pre-new codes and unfortunately has gable ends. My builder tells me he couldn't build the house today and even if he could you couldn't get it insured. The bad thing about hip roofs is the houses all look like boxes even though the expensive ones tend to hide them better.

Not looking forward to the weekend in Orlando.

Jim
 
petertenthije
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:01 am

Here's a photo of what's left of Maho Beach.

https://twitter.com/telegraaf/status/905713357877112833
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einsteinboricua
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:03 am

petertenthije wrote:
Here's a photo of what's left of Maho Beach.

https://twitter.com/telegraaf/status/905713357877112833

Looks like storm surge hasn't fully receded yet. I remember during my college years, I lived with my cousin in a beachside apartment and whenever storms pummeled the coast, there would be no sand left. In time, as water receded, enough sand was deposited that it was as if nothing had happened.
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bmacleod
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:30 pm

Those images of dead palm trees are painful to see.

How long will it take for new palm trees to grow back?
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
jetwet1
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:54 pm

N757ST wrote:
jackieman27 wrote:
Any more updates from SXM?


Here's a video from what's left of the Sunset looking at what's left of the Sonesta. The Sonesta will be closed until at least the end of the year.

https://youtu.be/YnKwhaTCqaM


Just to clarify that video a bit, it looks like it was taken from the site of the Alegria Boutique Hotel which sits just to the east of Maho/Sunset beach bar. The rocks you are seeing are there normally. Around the 20 second mark (look for the red/white beach chairs) that is the Sunset Bar. The video only briefly (43-46 seconds) shows Maho....I seriously doubt the Sonesta will be up and running in 3 months, from what I have seen, the south tower is just a concrete shell right now.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:55 pm

bmacleod wrote:
Those images of dead palm trees are painful to see.

How long will it take for new palm trees to grow back?


it will take decades for trees to grow back to full size.
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einsteinboricua
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:53 pm

Looks like St. Maarten will need a break if it wants to rebuild. The latest track has Jose getting fairly close to the island between Saturday and Sunday. It's not gonna get a direct hit like Irma, but it may worsen the damages and set back recovery efforts due to storm surge, rain, and tropical storm force winds. And as if that weren't enough, a few models have Lee forming around next week, way out in the Atlantic.

Hopefully, Irma and Jose have absorbed enough warm water that if Lee forms and follows a similar path, it won't be as powerful.
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Dutchy
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:55 pm

The Dutch government tries to get supplies in, but it is difficult with all the damage to the piers and the airport. Luckily the other Dutch island seems to have escaped the worst, some damage reported but no casualties.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tapairbus370
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:56 pm

Since no commercial planes are able to land (according to media reports), when will the airport be able to at least receive some military flights and what plane you think it will land first?

And out of curiosity, which was the last to leave? Was there any plane parked during the storm? I haven´t seen any pictures of damaged planes yet.

Thank you.

Ok, just found this in another thread that Momo1435 wrote: " .....The Royal Netherlands Air Force have send a KDC10 and a C-130 to Curacao with relief goods and 100+ army personal. I suspect that they will fly from there to SXM when the runway is cleared enough for those planes to land, otherwise they will have to ship them to island...."

Anyone have other information?
 
Kindredmsg
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:16 pm

KDC10 heading to CUR but according to FR24 they might try to land in SXM if the runway gets opened in time.

https://www.flightradar24.com/NAF49/ec659de
 
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Dutchy
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:29 pm

The first plane landed already, coast guard plane from CUR with a number of police forces. And yes, the runway should be open for the flight from Eindhoven.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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bombayduck
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:36 pm

Could they ferry supplies in by helicopter from the nearest Island with a large enough runway to take a KDC10 and C130?.
 
edmaircraft
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:50 pm

A friend of mine at AA has told me that a few extra flights will be operated out of MIA tonight specifically for evacuation. Looks like 12 to DFW, 2 to JFK, and 1 to PHL.
Let me up!
 
tapairbus370
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:02 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The first plane landed already, coast guard plane from CUR with a number of police forces. And yes, the runway should be open for the flight from Eindhoven.



Hello,

do you know what type of plane was?

Thank you
 
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Dutchy
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:09 pm

tapairbus370 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The first plane landed already, coast guard plane from CUR with a number of police forces. And yes, the runway should be open for the flight from Eindhoven.



Hello,

do you know what type of plane was?

Thank you


Don't know, it was mentioned on the news in The Netherlands, Dutch Caribbean Coastguard seem to have two Bombardier Dash 8, leased from the Canadian firm Provincial Aerospace Ltd. and two helicopters: Agusta Westland AW139 leased from the Brittish firm Cobham.

So probably a Dash 8.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:27 pm

In addition to the KDC-10 and C-130, two Dutch support vessels have arrived at the harbor in Philipsburg.

See https://www.ad.nl/dossier-orkaan-irma/m ... ~a4c7242e/
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Channex757
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:06 pm

On the plus side, nothing there that time and money can't put right. From the flyover shots on the news earlier, SXM seems relatively intact on the ground. Taxiways and the runway should only require time to drain and clear of debris, and the rest is construction and cosmetic work.

It isn't like nearby Monserrat that was destroyed by the volcano some years ago.

In situations like this you do have to look for the positive. If there is no major destruction to the infrastructure then it's just like the Asian tsunami of Boxing Day. Clean up, rebuild, make better than new. SXM could even become a better airport than it was after repairs and renewal, and my best wishes to the Islanders as they begin the clear-up
 
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kasimir
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:17 am

Channex757 wrote:
On the plus side, nothing there that time and money can't put right. From the flyover shots on the news earlier, SXM seems relatively intact on the ground. Taxiways and the runway should only require time to drain and clear of debris, and the rest is construction and cosmetic work.

It isn't like nearby Monserrat that was destroyed by the volcano some years ago.

In situations like this you do have to look for the positive. If there is no major destruction to the infrastructure then it's just like the Asian tsunami of Boxing Day. Clean up, rebuild, make better than new. SXM could even become a better airport than it was after repairs and renewal, and my best wishes to the Islanders as they begin the clear-up


You are right that the runway and taxiways might be fine, but the bigger problem to operate commercial flights is to see if the ATC infrastructure is in tact. Repairs to radars and other sensitive equipment might take weeks since those equipment need to be shipped to St. Maarten.

Let's not forget that currently the utility company is basically shutdown and there is no electricity or running water and operating of generators can only go as long as they have gas and with the harbor heavily damaged it might take a while for a fresh supply of crude products to get in such as jet fuel and diesel for ground machines and generators.

Currently all priority is set to support the people on the ground and get critical infrastructure up and running like hospitals.

As a reference, with the last big hurricane Luis (in 1995) it took up to 3 months to get all of St. Maarten connected back to the grid.

But the good news is that emergency supplies can be flown in quickly with C130s, to ease the pain in the very short term.
 
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kasimir
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:41 am

I am also observing the US news and I am amazed where some people get their numbers from...

Let's start with the most important statement: "Hurricane Irma is the strongest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history".

Depends on what metric you go, but meteorologically the two criteria that count is by pressure and by highest sustained winds. With a lowest pressure of 914mb it will not make it on the top ten list, but with winds up to 185mph (recorded on 5 & 6 Sep.) it gets the second rank.
Also needs to be added, that hurricane Irma is very slowly getting less and less intense, I expect it to be a Cat 4 by the time it gets to Florida, but don't get me wrong it will still be very dangerous.

The other thing that starts popping up everywhere, that this is connected to climate change and global warming. And before I get slammed, please read to the end ;)
Nobody is mentioning that what is going on right now is La Nina!
La Nina has started this year and is a weather cycle (opposite of El Nino) that comes every 5-7 years, with the effect for us in the Caribbean that we get much more rain and more and stronger hurricanes/tropical storms during the hurricane season.
On the other hand, the previous 3-5 years were relatively calm with only a few hurricanes/tropical storms in the Caribbean.
Even we on Curacao (lying outside the hurricane belt) can see the La Nina effect, because the island is much more greener then usual and it rains more often.
 
socalgeo
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:23 am

Jalap wrote:
ANITIX87 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I wonder if Trump will change his mind about climate change ?

Weather is not climate change. Having reached Letter I of the Storm Naming alphabet is hardly unusual enough to even be considered a pattern. I am not a climate change denier, so I'm not saying there's no such thing, but let's keep this on topic with thoughts and prayers for St. Martin and other islands/people affected.

Imo it's justified to look at the greater perspective too.
I agree that a single weather event means nothing to climate. Yet when I check wiki, seems there have been 10 cat 5 hurricanes since 2000. Count back 10 more, I end up in 1967, 33 years earlier. Count back 10 more, I end up in 1932, 35 years.

The pattern over nearly 100 years of observations seems to show (if the numbers are accurate) that cat 5 hurricanes are twice as common nowadays than they were 100 years ago. The number of observations probably is too small to consider it an undeniable consequense of global warming. Nevertheless, one can't toss those numbers aside either. I would be very irresponsible to toss those numbers aside.

I agree that this is interesting and needs to be looked at, but we also need to account for the technology changes that have taken place in the time frames you are talking about. Are there more cat 5s because of more accurate reporting? Possibly.

Would Irma have been classified as a cat 5 50 years ago? Perhaps, perhaps not.

Cheers!
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:27 am

kasimir wrote:
The other thing that starts popping up everywhere, that this is connected to climate change and global warming.

That is an absolute pet peeve and one that actually delegitimizes efforts to inform and convince people of the effects. Strong hurricanes are not an uncommon phenomenon. The question is how frequent will they be. The media may have a case to pump out the whole "climate change" argument had seasons 2006-2016 been just as active as the 2005 hurricane season. But like everything, there's a cycle. And with so many factors to take into account, it's very hard for me to buy the climate change angle, at least for the time being.

And this comes from a meteorologist who agrees with climate change. The media will have a lot of explaining to do if next year's hurricane season ends up being a quiet one. Of course, I will know why it is so, but Joe Average will immediately say "I've been played for a fool".

kasimir wrote:
La Nina has started this year and is a weather cycle (opposite of El Nino) that comes every 5-7 years

1. Incorrect. At the moment, we're in ENSO-neutral conditions; not cold enough for La Niña to be active, and it's expected to remain as such through the rest of the year.
2. ENSO is not a "weather" cycle; it's a climate cycle. Weather is instantaneous meteorological conditions (it's rainy today; it's sunny and hot today); climate is long-term weather conditions (summer months are hot and dry; winter months are mild and wet). What ENSO modifies is a region's climate. If La Niña is active (ENSO-positive), the equatorial western Pacific is unusually hot and wet while the equatorial eastern Pacific will be cooler and drier; the reverse happens during ENSO-negative (El Niño) where the pool of warm water moves to the east and causes the equatorial eastern Pacific to be warmer and wetter than normal while the equatorial western Pacific will be warm but drier than normal.
3. You need to append the statement with "on average". Some episodes can last a year or two. Good rule of thumb is about 3-4 years on average you'll see one or the other. Most of the time, ENSO-neutral conditions prevail.
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Aesma
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:42 am

The airport on the French side of Saint Martin (Grand Case-Espérance Airport) has been operational for relief efforts since yesterday, according to French TV news.
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Dutchy
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:52 am

socalgeo wrote:
Jalap wrote:
ANITIX87 wrote:
Weather is not climate change. Having reached Letter I of the Storm Naming alphabet is hardly unusual enough to even be considered a pattern. I am not a climate change denier, so I'm not saying there's no such thing, but let's keep this on topic with thoughts and prayers for St. Martin and other islands/people affected.

Imo it's justified to look at the greater perspective too.
I agree that a single weather event means nothing to climate. Yet when I check wiki, seems there have been 10 cat 5 hurricanes since 2000. Count back 10 more, I end up in 1967, 33 years earlier. Count back 10 more, I end up in 1932, 35 years.

The pattern over nearly 100 years of observations seems to show (if the numbers are accurate) that cat 5 hurricanes are twice as common nowadays than they were 100 years ago. The number of observations probably is too small to consider it an undeniable consequense of global warming. Nevertheless, one can't toss those numbers aside either. I would be very irresponsible to toss those numbers aside.

I agree that this is interesting and needs to be looked at, but we also need to account for the technology changes that have taken place in the time frames you are talking about. Are there more cat 5s because of more accurate reporting? Possibly.

Would Irma have been classified as a cat 5 50 years ago? Perhaps, perhaps not.

Cheers!


Ok, the models predicted that the hurricanes (and other weather) will be more severe and can absorb more water. And see it is happening. Is it one for one, no but the pattern is there. Stop denying this, you aren't like the denier in chief, are you?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Channex757
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:09 am

kasimir wrote:

You are right that the runway and taxiways might be fine, but the bigger problem to operate commercial flights is to see if the ATC infrastructure is in tact. Repairs to radars and other sensitive equipment might take weeks since those equipment need to be shipped to St. Maarten.

Let's not forget that currently the utility company is basically shutdown and there is no electricity or running water and operating of generators can only go as long as they have gas and with the harbor heavily damaged it might take a while for a fresh supply of crude products to get in such as jet fuel and diesel for ground machines and generators.

Currently all priority is set to support the people on the ground and get critical infrastructure up and running like hospitals.

As a reference, with the last big hurricane Luis (in 1995) it took up to 3 months to get all of St. Maarten connected back to the grid.

But the good news is that emergency supplies can be flown in quickly with C130s, to ease the pain in the very short term.


There's a case then to get SXM up and running as quickly as possible to open it up to freight and relief flights. ATC isn't a problem as such. Air Forces have unpackable, complete ATC setups they use for just this purpose, and if the RNAF doesn't have one to hand then their colleagues in the RAF do.

These are there to quickly activate or re-activate forward bases or captured airfields. Fly it in on a C-17 or C-130 and the complete 'tower' is operational pretty fast. SXM has an international-class runway which is a vital asset to the region at this time.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:16 am

Channex757 wrote:
kasimir wrote:

You are right that the runway and taxiways might be fine, but the bigger problem to operate commercial flights is to see if the ATC infrastructure is in tact. Repairs to radars and other sensitive equipment might take weeks since those equipment need to be shipped to St. Maarten.

Let's not forget that currently the utility company is basically shutdown and there is no electricity or running water and operating of generators can only go as long as they have gas and with the harbor heavily damaged it might take a while for a fresh supply of crude products to get in such as jet fuel and diesel for ground machines and generators.

Currently all priority is set to support the people on the ground and get critical infrastructure up and running like hospitals.

As a reference, with the last big hurricane Luis (in 1995) it took up to 3 months to get all of St. Maarten connected back to the grid.

But the good news is that emergency supplies can be flown in quickly with C130s, to ease the pain in the very short term.


There's a case then to get SXM up and running as quickly as possible to open it up to freight and relief flights. ATC isn't a problem as such. Air Forces have unpackable, complete ATC setups they use for just this purpose, and if the RNAF doesn't have one to hand then their colleagues in the RAF do.

These are there to quickly activate or re-activate forward bases or captured airfields. Fly it in on a C-17 or C-130 and the complete 'tower' is operational pretty fast. SXM has an international-class runway which is a vital asset to the region at this time.


It is open for military flights right now (and the harbor), they want to get stuff in before the next is going to come on Sunday, the small window of opportunity is there.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
petertenthije
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:30 am

KLM has provided the Dutch red cross free of charge a flight of a 747F. Due to the conditions in SXM the flight will go to Curacao. The flight will leave tomorrow morning with 60 tonnes worth of material, including generators, tents, jerrycans and solar pannels. Volume and weight permitting drinking water will also be added.

https://www.destentor.nl/binnenland/klm ... ~aaa6e1a3/
Attamottamotta!
 
bmacleod
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:47 pm

Trump likely concerned about damage to his property on west side of St Maarten.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-irma-donald-trump-carribean-estate-st-martin-a7933516.html

Not to mention Trump's West Palm Beach estate is right in Irma's path.....

Hopefully this disaster will have an effect on him - for the better....climate change is real if that video is any testament...
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
NoTime
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:03 pm

Dutchy wrote:
socalgeo wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Imo it's justified to look at the greater perspective too.
I agree that a single weather event means nothing to climate. Yet when I check wiki, seems there have been 10 cat 5 hurricanes since 2000. Count back 10 more, I end up in 1967, 33 years earlier. Count back 10 more, I end up in 1932, 35 years.

The pattern over nearly 100 years of observations seems to show (if the numbers are accurate) that cat 5 hurricanes are twice as common nowadays than they were 100 years ago. The number of observations probably is too small to consider it an undeniable consequense of global warming. Nevertheless, one can't toss those numbers aside either. I would be very irresponsible to toss those numbers aside.

I agree that this is interesting and needs to be looked at, but we also need to account for the technology changes that have taken place in the time frames you are talking about. Are there more cat 5s because of more accurate reporting? Possibly.

Would Irma have been classified as a cat 5 50 years ago? Perhaps, perhaps not.

Cheers!


Ok, the models predicted that the hurricanes (and other weather) will be more severe and can absorb more water. And see it is happening. Is it one for one, no but the pattern is there. Stop denying this, you aren't like the denier in chief, are you?


No, the pattern is not there - at least not yet. If the pattern was clear and obvious, then you would have far fewer people doubting the existence of climate change. The US just went through a record 12 year major hurricane drought, we are due for a few big ones. Additionally, even though we are seeing multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic right now, the rest of the world is eerily quiet in terms of hurricane/cyclone activity - and that's very rare for this time of year.

Irma is certainly a very dangerous storm, but I think a contributing factor to all of the sensationalism is the simple fact that we haven't had a major hurricane in so long. Many of the people reporting/tweeting/talking about the storm haven't experienced something like this in their adult lives.

Anyhow, the most recent forecast has shifted the possible track slightly to the west, which could be "good news" for Miami, but bad news for the Keys and any critters in the Everglades. However, even in this scenario, Miami and Fort Lauderdale will still take a beating... maybe just not quite as bad as it could otherwise be.

It truly is incredible, and a testament to the improvements in our forecasting and preparedness, that so few have died thus far with both Harvey and Irma. Hopefully that trend continues.
"Anyone who doesn't accept the results of an election is a danger to democracy"- Hillary Clinton
 
ChrisKen
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:19 pm

Atlantic Storms are increasingly occurring more frequently and with more intensity (Ditto Pacific).
You'll happily ignore that fact because they haven't hit the US or conform with your views but even your claimed 'record hurricane drought' is wrong, with just a simple search you'll see several made US landfall in the last 12 years.
 
NoTime
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:42 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
Atlantic Storms are increasingly occurring more frequently and with more intensity (Ditto Pacific).
You'll happily ignore that fact because they haven't hit the US or conform with your views but even your claimed 'record hurricane drought' is wrong, with just a simple search you'll see several made US landfall in the last 12 years.


You should read more closely. I didn't say "hurricane drought", I said "major hurricane drought" (CAT 3+).
"Anyone who doesn't accept the results of an election is a danger to democracy"- Hillary Clinton
 
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kasimir
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:01 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
1. Incorrect. At the moment, we're in ENSO-neutral conditions; not cold enough for La Niña to be active, and it's expected to remain as such through the rest of the year.
2. ENSO is not a "weather" cycle; it's a climate cycle. Weather is instantaneous meteorological conditions (it's rainy today; it's sunny and hot today); climate is long-term weather conditions (summer months are hot and dry; winter months are mild and wet). What ENSO modifies is a region's climate. If La Niña is active (ENSO-positive), the equatorial western Pacific is unusually hot and wet while the equatorial eastern Pacific will be cooler and drier; the reverse happens during ENSO-negative (El Niño) where the pool of warm water moves to the east and causes the equatorial eastern Pacific to be warmer and wetter than normal while the equatorial western Pacific will be warm but drier than normal.
3. You need to append the statement with "on average". Some episodes can last a year or two. Good rule of thumb is about 3-4 years on average you'll see one or the other. Most of the time, ENSO-neutral conditions prevail.


Thanks for the explanation, very insightful, but I think we agree that that there are climate cycles (ENSO or La Nina) that have an effect on the strength of the Atlantic hurricanes (also the Pacific hurricanes/cyclones).

ChrisKen wrote:
Atlantic Storms are increasingly occurring more frequently and with more intensity (Ditto Pacific).
You'll happily ignore that fact because they haven't hit the US or conform with your views but even your claimed 'record hurricane drought' is wrong, with just a simple search you'll see several made US landfall in the last 12 years.


I am not a climate change denier, but I am a bigger believer in facts and these are the facts:
- The last very strong year with Atlantic storms/hurricanes was 2005 with 28 named storms/hurricanes in that year. 2005 was also the where we had hurricane Wilma, which is considered the strongest recorded Atlantic hurricane.
- Then we had 3 strong years in 2010, 2011 and 2012 with 19 named storms/hurricanes in each year.
- In 2014 and 2015 (also to some extent 2016) we had very calm years, with 8 to 11 named storms/hurricanes in those years and I very clearly remember that a lot of those storms/hurricanes didn't even make any major landfall and were weaker storms.
- Strong hurricanes (Cat 5) have always existed in the past and is not a new phenomenon

Yes, there is one fact that there is a small trend over a period of over 200 years, that there are more reported hurricanes, BUT we need to account that also over the same period of time we have better meteorological systems, satellites and technology that helps us find these hurricanes and report them. I am still not denying, but we need to account for all these facts.

But I can tell you one thing, and that is a big fact and no denying there, the media reporting is becoming more intense and sensationalistic every time! Media lives off of this and the more they can hype up the action the more viewers they get (translates to $$$). And this extreme reporting combined with social media, can create a false impression that things are getting worst, but that is just your perception. So every time the media starts throwing around headlines like "strongest hurricane in history" I check up first.

We in the Caribbean usually follow the hurricane seasons very intensely (non-sensationalistic), since our lives depend on it and we notice stronger and weaker hurricanes seasons.

Lastly I would like to add, that hurricane Irma has lost significant force overnight and became a Cat 4 and if this continues it might become a Cat 3 by the time it hits Florida tomorrow. Right now I am just more scared for SXM and the other small islands around, since Hurricane Jose will hit them Saturday night and Sunday and they have some serious things to take care off.
For example I have just read that there are 60 patients on SXM that urgently need dialysis and if not flown out before Saturday night they might be in serious trouble. And with all the damage, Hurricane Jose can do some serious follow up damage over there. With all eyes on Florida, those islands might just be ignored by the bigger media outlets.
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:37 pm

kasimir wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:

Lastly I would like to add, that hurricane Irma has lost significant force overnight and became a Cat 4 and if this continues it might become a Cat 3 by the time it hits Florida tomorrow. Right now I am just more scared for SXM and the other small islands around, since Hurricane Jose will hit them Saturday night and Sunday and they have some serious things to take care off.
For example I have just read that there are 60 patients on SXM that urgently need dialysis and if not flown out before Saturday night they might be in serious trouble. And with all the damage, Hurricane Jose can do some serious follow up damage over there. With all eyes on Florida, those islands might just be ignored by the bigger media outlets.


Irma weakened overnight as it is going through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle. It may not regain the 185 again, but preminary indications from the planes flying are that the 165-170 winds may show up again by the 2:00 P.M Advisory. Don't get complacent with storms.

As for Global Warming. It is nothing instantaneous, but it is the effects of slowly rising water levels and heat levels that make extreme strorms, slightly more extreme, and storm surges that much higher. There are measureable rises in sea level going on and measurable rises in average global temperature. Whether it continues we will not know, but the predictions indicate that it will continue.
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:44 pm

DELETE
Last edited by kasimir on Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:44 pm

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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:01 pm

Reports of serious looting going on.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41203286

The French government said two-thirds of houses on the island have been left uninhabitable, with no electricity, drinking water. When this happens I can understand people wanting to take what they need to survive, but not TV's and booze.
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:18 pm

A quick update regarding SXM (Dutch side only).

Hurricane Jose is Cat.4 and the eye should pass SXM around 60nm north of SXM. There are now 2 reported death and 11 critically injured on SXM. At this moment all infrastructure is down and it is reported that it will take atleast 6 weeks to have normal drinking water again and SXM will be needing emergency supplies & support for the coming weeks.

An emergency base is established on Curacao, from which operations and flights will be done and several support flights are currently on the way to CUR. This is what I know of:
- KL 747F on its way with supplies
- KDC-10 with supplies and additional troops
- 2x C-130 Hercules with supplies and will be flying CUR-SXM to bring supplies and fly out wounded people.
- C-17 with supplies. Since the Dutch don't have a C17, I guess it must be a UK RAF C-17.

Source (in Dutch):
http://paradisefmcuracao.com/jose-nu-ca ... t-maarten/

The long-term economic damage will be quite significant. There will be no tourism (cruise and stay-over) for the coming months and everybody will be busy rebuilding the island. Let's not forget, SXM is a major Caribbean cruise destination.

Channex757 wrote:
There's a case then to get SXM up and running as quickly as possible to open it up to freight and relief flights. ATC isn't a problem as such. Air Forces have unpackable, complete ATC setups they use for just this purpose, and if the RNAF doesn't have one to hand then their colleagues in the RAF do.

These are there to quickly activate or re-activate forward bases or captured airfields. Fly it in on a C-17 or C-130 and the complete 'tower' is operational pretty fast. SXM has an international-class runway which is a vital asset to the region at this time.


Yes, they are working hard to get the airport up- and running, but Hurricane Jose will shut down the airport after Saturday night till Wednesday. After that everything will be done to setup temporary airport operations to get emergency supplies (with military aircraft) in and out quickly. But I don't expect any commercial flights for the next couple of weeks. It is reported that the airport weather station is heavily damaged, runway/landing lights and beacons are destroyed and many airport equipment and vehicles like pushback trucks are out of service for now. We have seen the pictures of the damaged terminal, but it is unclear how long it will take to get the airport terminal operational again. At this time the airport can called a landing strip, nothing more, nothing less.

I believe we will get a proper damage assessment after Hurricane Jose has passed.
Last edited by kasimir on Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:19 pm

I don't know if there will be investigations, but if you find a house with no roof or a destroyed shack with a brand new functioning TV, you know where it came from !

Apparently there is 30% unemployment in Saint Martin, and a good number of illegal immigrants.
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:33 pm

Tap water from PTP is being barged to the affected islands, along with plastic satchels to distribute it.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:07 pm

-I was told that one of a factor why Irma's wind speed being this high while the lowest pressure is still well over 900hpa is probably the higher background pressure of Atlantic compared to Pacific, how true is that?
- While there are lots of evidence about climate change, I think those storms we are seeing is not one of those yet. Surely we see strong cylones coming and hitting different place and also storms with very unusual path, but we all know they are due to the specific atmospheric condition occur at the time when those storm occur. The increase in average sea surface temperature lead to increase in number and strength storm activity is not a evidence but instead a hypothesis as I don't think a clear trend have been demonstrated as we are just beginning to record storm activities over the last one or two centuries.
- Consider that now different European governments are working individually on their own to help their own territory in Carribean, would it be a good chance to create a union between those islands which could allow better inter-island-collaboration and provide a better way for governments over Europe to support those territories?
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:26 pm

c933103 wrote:
Consider that now different European governments are working individually on their own to help their own territory in Carribean, would it be a good chance to create a union between those islands which could allow better inter-island-collaboration and provide a better way for governments over Europe to support those territories?


Good question and that it is happening in some way already, the Dutch are coordinating with the French. In a press conference a couple of hours ago the Dutch General Richard Oppelaar has mentioned that right now the most important thing, is to get a good assessment of the situation based on facts, so they can effectively coordinate and help each other if necessary. With very limited communications to/from the SXM this is a difficult task and with hurricane Jose on the horizon it makes everything more tricky.

Also is there a legal question, for example the Dutch Military cannot just walk into the French side without any specific authorization, but that can be solved relatively fast.

But you will not create a union overnight, this is mostly a political issue, that stretches as far as the European Union and this will be a very bureaucratic and slow process. Just to give you an idea, the Dutch military cannot just help St. Maarten and go there. They need to be requested by the prime minister of St. Maarten for help and support and that has been done ahead of the hurricane's arrival.
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:33 pm

c933103 wrote:
- Consider that now different European governments are working individually on their own to help their own territory in Carribean, would it be a good chance to create a union between those islands which could allow better inter-island-collaboration and provide a better way for governments over Europe to support those territories?


The French side, Saint Martin, is essentially a French municipally / small town, the "Dutch" side, Sint Maarten, is a country in her own ride. It is part of the Kingdom of The Netherlands, but it is not part of The Netherlands, the country. So The Hague has no say in this, nevertheless the Dutch are there to help off course, but after the emergency relief, this will be a problem. The Fench side is thus part of the EU, the Dutch side isn't and so there are many many more differences. Sint Maarten had the choice, like the other five islands in the Dutch Carebian, become independent, become a small town within the Netherlands, or become fully independent, so leave the Kingdom of The Netherlands, they choose becoming a country within the Kingdom of The Netherlands.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:58 pm

Two Dutch C-130 are en route, 1 KDC-10 is in Curacao and the Q400 from the Coast Gaurd flies between Sint Maarten and Curacao. 15 dialyse patients are being evacuated, the remaining 50 will leave tomorrow.

- Two died Sint Maarten and 43 severely wounded
- Noone injured at Saba and St. Eustatius

Jose (cat 4) will scrimp the island on Saturday/Sunday. The disaster after the disaster.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:33 am

Anyone noticed the earthquake in Mexico? topping out at 8.1 the strongest in the last 80 years.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:08 am

WIederling wrote:
Anyone noticed the earthquake in Mexico? topping out at 8.1 the strongest in the last 80 years.


Yes, and the hurricane Katia about to hit eastern Mexico. But you could open another thread about it if you like.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:06 pm

kasimir wrote:
- C-17 with supplies. Since the Dutch don't have a C17, I guess it must be a UK RAF C-17.


They do or rather they are joint owners of 3 C17 together with the 11 other members of Strategic Airlift Capability.
I don't know but I would assume that the C-17 they are using are one of the SAC C-17s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic ... Capability
https://www.sacprogram.org/en/Pages/default.aspx
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:16 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
kasimir wrote:
- C-17 with supplies. Since the Dutch don't have a C17, I guess it must be a UK RAF C-17.


They do or rather they are joint owners of 3 C17 together with the 11 other members of Strategic Airlift Capability.
I don't know but I would assume that the C-17 they are using are one of the SAC C-17s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic ... Capability
https://www.sacprogram.org/en/Pages/default.aspx


Yes they do, a few hours of the 500hours available to the Dutch AF.

https://twitter.com/ElanorBoekholt/stat ... 88/photo/1
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:57 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
They do or rather they are joint owners of 3 C17 together with the 11 other members of Strategic Airlift Capability.
I don't know but I would assume that the C-17 they are using are one of the SAC C-17s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic ... Capability
https://www.sacprogram.org/en/Pages/default.aspx


Dutchy wrote:
Yes they do, a few hours of the 500hours available to the Dutch AF.

https://twitter.com/ElanorBoekholt/stat ... 88/photo/1


Good to know... Indeed now these 500 hours can be put to good use.

Update on Hurricane Irma, it looks like the hurricane has lost some energy overnight and is now a Cat 3 hurricane. It even looks weaker on the satellite images, but non the less Florida should remain cautious.

Hurricane Jose remains a Cat 4, but will pass SXM to the north and the effects for SXM and the other north east Caribbean islands will be a like a tropical storm.
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:21 pm

Another Update on SXM:
- It is reported that yesterday by request of the Dutch Military a F-50 of Insel Air flew to SXM to pick up patients and bring them to Curacao and Aruba.
- The jail on SXM is without power, water and food and some walls have collapsed during the hurricane. There are 135 prisoners that need to be relocated to other islands as soon as Jose has passed.
 
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Re: SXM/St. Maarten Has Taken a Direct Hit of 185mph/295km/h Cat-5 Hurricane Irma

Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:00 pm

Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente

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