Since the rise of tensions between Germany and Turkey, I started to look closer to German mainstream Media.
What I have witnessed so far it is a ball game between both Goverments. Companies/Economic players keep silent and continue acting accordingly to their interests and conjuncture.
The only suffering so far seems to be Turkish migrants and Germans who are misled by these biased fakenews.

Living in Germany, I cant say much about real/social live in Turkey.
But as someone who is watching economic developments in Europe, Turkey and the World all together, I wonder why there are so many false and fake news about Turkey? Who are they serving with this misleading news?

My question to the Forum is where do you take/read/watch/get your news and do you believe/trust to it.

The reason I opened this thread is, since my trust in mainstream media dwindled over the years, I cross-check most news, especially regarding Turkey and its economic outlook.

Yesterday were news in Turkish press that Moody's raised its growth forecast from 2.6% to 3.7% in 2017.
To verify this I googled for international sources. All what I found was news about Moody's downgrade of Turkeys rating last year and this spring.

Additionally I stumbled upon an article in a German Magazine from yesterday, saying how bleak Turkeys economy is and that it will explode in Erdogan's face.

I really wonder if this is just sensationalism, Turkey/Erdogan bashing, distraction before elections in Germany or simply stupidity. The readers comments are really scary and frightening. Thankfully it seems its a small minority of Germans.

Articles:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/moodys ... sCatID=344

(Sorry, only german)
http://m.focus.de/finanzen/news/konjunk ... 37107.html

Turkey doesn't exactly have a free press, where journalists are routinely jailed, so I would take anything reported from there with a huge pinch of salt. Meanwhile, Germany's press is far more free, and far more trustworthy than Turkey.

OA412 wrote:

Turkey doesn't exactly have a free press, where journalists are routinely jailed, so I would take anything reported from there with a huge pinch of salt. Meanwhile, Germany's press is far more free, and far more trustworthy than Turkey.

Well this is the problem I have. We are told in the west Turkish Press is not trustworthy, so all news coming from there is not true. Thats why I cross-check news with Western Media and reports.

There are facts and figures which cant be faked or manipulated by the Goverment or the press, especially in International Business. Be it Tourism, Foreign Trade, Foreign Investments, USD/TLY rate, Foreign Dept ect.

Looking at the latest figures, Turkey is far from having a broken or weak Economy nor was it weak in 2016 when Tourist numbers decreased by almost 1/3 and Foreign Capital fled after the failed coup.
In Contrary, it seems they are booming again.


So why is it that Western Media is lying and continuing its smear campaign??

It sounds like anything you disagree with is fake news.

Facts and figures can be manipulated, and are manipulated. Look at China or Russia.

BestWestern wrote:

It sounds like anything you disagree with is fake news.

Facts and figures can be manipulated, and are manipulated. Look at China or Russia.

I dont know if you have read the German article or understood the story. I can try to summerise the points and show why I disagree.
I have to admit its not a very serious magazin, but I took it as it is a very recent one and which made me open this thread.

Worst thing is that also serious newspapers, magazins and TV Channels erc. are streaming the same negative way.

Turkish Economy took a hit last year, no doubt, but it recovered very fast that in the end Turkey had a growth rate of 2.9% in 2016.
In 1Q17 the economy grew by 5%, for the second quarter same growth rate is expected.

Just two figures to show the performance, which everyone can check easily online:
-Istanbul Stock Exchange index grew from ~77.000 to 110.000 since January
-US $ fell from ~3.90 TLY in January to 3.43TLY yesterday.

Tkfan wrote:

Just two figures to show the performance, which everyone can check easily online:
-Istanbul Stock Exchange index grew from ~77.000 to 110.000 since January
-US $ fell from ~3.90 TLY in January to 3.43TLY yesterday.

Are you suggesting that stock markets and currencies are in any way indicators of something rational?

I know nothing about the market in Turkey.

It is to me inconceivable that stock prices in the USA since Mr. Trump was elected have been rational.

Is there any sane reason for the market capitalization of Tesla Motors being greater than that of General Motors?

Has Boeing truly increased in value by more than 50% in one year?

As for the press/media, the world of the word is in deep trouble. Truth is no longer held in high regard.

Shalom

Tkfan wrote:

The reason I opened this thread is, since my trust in mainstream media dwindled over the years, I cross-check most news, especially regarding Turkey and its economic outlook.

Yesterday were news in Turkish press that Moody's raised its growth forecast from 2.6% to 3.7% in 2017.
To verify this I googled for international sources. All what I found was news about Moody's downgrade of Turkeys rating last year and this spring.

Additionally I stumbled upon an article in a German Magazine from yesterday, saying how bleak Turkeys economy is and that it will explode in Erdogan's face.

I really wonder if this is just sensationalism, Turkey/Erdogan bashing, distraction before elections in Germany or simply stupidity. The readers comments are really scary and frightening. Thankfully it seems its a small minority of Germans.

Articles:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/moodys ... sCatID=344

(Sorry, only german)
http://m.focus.de/finanzen/news/konjunk ... 37107.html

Could you please point out where the German article is factually wrong? It mentions the economic growth and it says, I think rightfully so, 3,7% is low, too low, for an upcoming economy like Turkey. Unemployment seems to be a problem, which seems to be over 11%. Car sales are an indicator how an economy is doing, especially purchasing power of the consumer.

I don't subscribe to your assertion that this article is factually wrong and is intended to harm Turkey.

For attracting foreign investments you need a stable government and rule of law, both are questionable in Turkey. Tourism is down and that is one o the drivers for the Turkish economy.

So you are talking about objectively fakenews, that is a rather harsh conclusion which's, in my mind, legs any basis in reality or better, you haven't shown us one bit, so please provide us with evidence of this. Big claims need a large level of proof of backing up such a claim. Furthermore, "fakenews" is consciously
and wantonly doing that, so could you provide us with a motive for such a thing?

Tkfan wrote:

was it weak in 2016 when Tourist numbers decreased by almost 1/3 and Foreign Capital fled after the failed coup.
In Contrary, it seems they are booming again.

*seems* being the key word. Tourism did in deed recovered to pre-crisis levels, but tourism revenues only grew by about 10%, so revenue per tourist went down 1.1/1.5 ~27%.
If airline revenue per passenger dropped by 27%, we'd all know they are in big trouble.

Best regards
Thomas

The visible details of the current spat between Germany and Turkey appear absurd enough
to indicate that we are not presented with the full picture.

Turkey used to be very keen on linking to/joining the EU.
This was subverted by the "EuroChristian Leitkultur" conservatives ( mostly Germany and some other nations ).

Turkey then turned to other peers ( less savory ones like Saudi Arabia.)
Turkey's primary interest currently is "no Kurdish nation",
No stable ( and strong to oppose) national governments downstream of their dam building projects.
( Like Israel, Spain they have taken hold of most fresh water supply.)

Advised by the US military to shoot down the SU-24 has backfired endlessly.
Erdogan had to Kowtow to the RF to fix the repercussions.
( result: Turkey today is a lot less willing to follow US bidding in escalating the Syrian conflict. )

WIederling wrote:

The visible details of the current spat between Germany and Turkey appear absurd enough
to indicate that we are not presented with the full picture.

Turkey used to be very keen on linking to/joining the EU.
This was subverted by the "EuroChristian Leitkultur" conservatives ( mostly Germany and some other nations ).

Turkey then turned to other peers ( less savory ones like Saudi Arabia.)
Turkey's primary interest currently is "no Kurdish nation",
No stable ( and strong to oppose) national governments downstream of their dam building projects.
( Like Israel, Spain they have taken hold of most fresh water supply.)

Advised by the US military to shoot down the SU-24 has backfired endlessly.
Erdogan had to Kowtow to the RF to fix the repercussions.
( result: Turkey today is a lot less willing to follow US bidding in escalating the Syrian conflict. )

Oh ok, it is the EU's fault? Turkey under the Erdogan regime, moved away from European value's, so no they are not keen to join and therefore the EU should stop immediately with sending money towards Ankara to accomplish this. Has nothing to do with Christian Litkultur, it is the attitude of the Turkish regime towards rule of law, democracy in general and freedom of press, religion, etc.

Do you have any evidence that the US advised to shoot down the Su-24? The Russian craft was inside Turkish airspace, so they had a right to shoot it down.

BobPatterson wrote:

Tkfan wrote:

Just two figures to show the performance, which everyone can check easily online:
-Istanbul Stock Exchange index grew from ~77.000 to 110.000 since January
-US $ fell from ~3.90 TLY in January to 3.43TLY yesterday.

Are you suggesting that stock markets and currencies are in any way indicators of something rational?

I know nothing about the market in Turkey.

It is to me inconceivable that stock prices in the USA since Mr. Trump was elected have been rational.

Is there any sane reason for the market capitalization of Tesla Motors being greater than that of General Motors?

Has Boeing truly increased in value by more than 50% in one year?

As for the press/media, the world of the word is in deep trouble. Truth is no longer held in high regard.

Shalom

Totally agree to your comment
Stock indices are not immediately an indicator of the economic growth or stability. We had several blown-up stockmarkets in the past with severe consequences for the world economy.
My (positive) conception of Turkeys economy is not based only of this.
This was only to show that the economy is not as leak as it is portrayed in western media. No broken economy would have such confidence that the stock market grow by almost 25% and its currency is gaining value. Add to this that Turkey has 8-10% inflation.

Your last sentence is indeed stellar!!!
Seeing those lies in western media I wonder their intentions.

Selam also to you

Dutchy wrote:

Tkfan wrote:

The reason I opened this thread is, since my trust in mainstream media dwindled over the years, I cross-check most news, especially regarding Turkey and its economic outlook.

Yesterday were news in Turkish press that Moody's raised its growth forecast from 2.6% to 3.7% in 2017.
To verify this I googled for international sources. All what I found was news about Moody's downgrade of Turkeys rating last year and this spring.

Additionally I stumbled upon an article in a German Magazine from yesterday, saying how bleak Turkeys economy is and that it will explode in Erdogan's face.

I really wonder if this is just sensationalism, Turkey/Erdogan bashing, distraction before elections in Germany or simply stupidity. The readers comments are really scary and frightening. Thankfully it seems its a small minority of Germans.

Articles:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/moodys ... sCatID=344

(Sorry, only german)
http://m.focus.de/finanzen/news/konjunk ... 37107.html

Could you please point out where the German article is factually wrong? It mentions the economic growth and it says, I think rightfully so, 3,7% is low, too low, for an upcoming economy like Turkey. Unemployment seems to be a problem, which seems to be over 11%. Car sales are an indicator how an economy is doing, especially purchasing power of the consumer.

I don't subscribe to your assertion that this article is factually wrong and is intended to harm Turkey.

For attracting foreign investments you need a stable government and rule of law, both are questionable in Turkey. Tourism is down and that is one o the drivers for the Turkish economy.

So you are talking about objectively fakenews, that is a rather harsh conclusion which's, in my mind, legs any basis in reality or better, you haven't shown us one bit, so please provide us with evidence of this. Big claims need a large level of proof of backing up such a claim. Furthermore, "fakenews" is consciously
and wantonly doing that, so could you provide us with a motive for such a thing?

In general they picked some numbers from here and there, brought them totally out of context to draw a disastrous picture/outlook.

1. Tourism
It is no secret that tourism suffered in 2016 but in 2017 it is recovering. So far until end July +22%.
The article says tourist numbers decreased by 25% in first quarter 2017. The article was publisched August 31, so they were not able to obtain the numbers Apr-Jul??
Furthermore it says German bookings for summer went down from 430.000 in 2016 to 300.000 in 2017.
Reality is alone in July 680.000 Germans arrived in Turkey, and ytd the number is 1.9million.

2.Inflation
No doubt about that, inflation was always high in Turkey. For Westerners it might be a problem but Turks can cope with it easily.
Also there is said their savings are diminishing because of that, only to contradict to themselves when they say interest rates are high.
High inflation is met with high interest rates, so no real loss.

3. Unemployment
The number given is a prognossis for 2017 whereas for other years is average.
This year the rate is falling.

4. Devaluation of TLY
Since January its stable. TLY/EUR varying between 0.24-0.26.
US $/TLY see above

5.5.6. Economic growth/Credibility/investments
I will answer this later. I have to look for links. If possible no Turkish links.

Dutchy wrote:

Oh ok, it is the EU's fault? Turkey under the Erdogan regime, moved away from European value's, so no they are not keen to join and therefore the EU should stop immediately with sending money towards Ankara to accomplish this. Has nothing to do with Christian Litkultur, it is the attitude of the Turkish regime towards rule of law, democracy in general and freedom of press, religion, etc.

You wear blinders? Turkey was pretty well set up to work on a wide range of issues that hindered the process.

But the "Christian Leitkulturler" had it made pretty clear that Turkey would not be allowed to progress
beyond EU fringe and holidaying dump.
Completely unacceptable for an aspiring nation like Turkey.

The change seen in recent years was more to fit in with their new peers than anything else.

Do you have any evidence that the US advised to shoot down the Su-24? The Russian craft was inside Turkish airspace, so they had a right to shoot it down.

US military high brass seem to have been present in the war room were the shoot down was decided on.

Then "having the right" ( questionable ) and acting on that right need not be opportune in the long run.
( Difficult concept, for sure. In retrospect the downsides are obvious.
With a bit more sophistication based premeditation on the consequences this experiment
would not have been necessary. )

1. Tourism: All is a matter of what is the baseline which you compare it to. 15 July 2016 was the date of the coup d'etar and 24 November 2015 for the shoot down of the Su-24M.
So both could be true, if you compare July 2016 to July 2017 I believe it is up 22%, If you compare Q1 2016 to Q1 2017 I believe -25%.
As for bookings, what are bookings? Is one booking for 4 persons count as 1 or 4? So again both could be true. Calling it a fraud needs more hard evidence than you provided here.

2. High inflation makes your purchasing power evaporate unless you are compensated for that by an increase in pay and the article mentions that wages lag behind. So there is a real loss in that. Those are numbers provided by the Turkish government.

3. Might be the case, what is your source? Turkey will do well if they managed to keep it below 11% this year, 11,5% is the prognoses.

4. So it stabilized itself for now, if the high inflations continue it can't sustain that level, common sense. And if you look at the long term trend, provided within the article: the trend is negative, with a small rise in February this year. So the timescale you picked isn't that represented I would say.

5. / 6. / 7. Ok, looking forward to your thoughts about it.

May I ask where this is coming from? Are you a German from Turkish descent?

WIederling wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Oh ok, it is the EU's fault? Turkey under the Erdogan regime, moved away from European value's, so no they are not keen to join and therefore the EU should stop immediately with sending money towards Ankara to accomplish this. Has nothing to do with Christian Litkultur, it is the attitude of the Turkish regime towards rule of law, democracy in general and freedom of press, religion, etc.

You wear blinders? Turkey was pretty well set up to work on a wide range of issues that hindered the process.

But the "Christian Leitkulturler" had it made pretty clear that Turkey would not be allowed to progress
beyond EU fringe and holidaying dump.
Completely unacceptable for an aspiring nation like Turkey.

The change seen in recent years was more to fit in with their new peers than anything else.

It is pretty clear that Erdogan wants an autocratic regime, the EU will never accept such a regime among them, just look how they focus on Poland and others if they violate European values of democracy and rule of law. And indeed I think you are right, the Turks are a proud nation, it is fine that they will not join, there choose, but don't blame it on "Christian Leitkulturler", what ever that may be.

WIederling wrote:

Do you have any evidence that the US advised to shoot down the Su-24? The Russian craft was inside Turkish airspace, so they had a right to shoot it down.

US military high brass seem to have been present in the war room were the shoot down was decided on.

Then "having the right" ( questionable ) and acting on that right need not be opportune in the long run.
( Difficult concept, for sure. In retrospect the downsides are obvious.
With a bit more sophistication based premeditation on the consequences this experiment
would not have been necessary. )

In hind side, not a very smart move, but then again the Russians didn't do it again. So that is even debatable. So you are guessing that this US officer had anything to do with that, you are not even sure that this officer was present. That seems pretty weak in my book to base such a claim on

Dutchy wrote:

It is pretty clear that Erdogan wants an autocratic regime,

You are using today's observed behaviour to explain turning Turkey away in the past.
You are wagging the dog so to speak.

Moving to a more autocratic setup was the result of the EU turning away Turkey in the past.
New friends, new clothes.

Dutchy wrote:

.. the Russians didn't do it again.

They did not need to.
Seen the movie "The 13th Warrior"? remember the "provocation with unexpected outcome" scene?

WIederling wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

It is pretty clear that Erdogan wants an autocratic regime,

You are using today's observed behaviour to explain turning Turkey away in the past.
You are wagging the dog so to speak.

Moving to a more autocratic setup was the result of the EU turning away Turkey in the past.
New friends, new clothes.

That hypothesis isn't supported by facts. The base of Erdogan is much more conservative, rural people, not the more cosmopolitan Istanbul residents. Ever since Erdogan came to power Turkey moved away from the EU. Don't blame the EU for that.

WIederling wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

.. the Russians didn't do it again.

They did not need to.
Seen the movie "The 13th Warrior"? remember the "provocation with unexpected outcome" scene?

no and no, haven't seen the movie, any good?

It's not just with Germany. Turkey isn't a very important country for France, but at the moment it's regularly in the news because a French journalist has been jailed in Turkey for terrorism.

Dutchy wrote:

1. Tourism: All is a matter of what is the baseline which you compare it to. 15 July 2016 was the date of the coup d'etar and 24 November 2015 for the shoot down of the Su-24M.
So both could be true, if you compare July 2016 to July 2017 I believe it is up 22%, If you compare Q1 2016 to Q1 2017 I believe -25%.
As for bookings, what are bookings? Is one booking for 4 persons count as 1 or 4? So again both could be true. Calling it a fraud needs more hard evidence than you provided here.

2. High inflation makes your purchasing power evaporate unless you are compensated for that by an increase in pay and the article mentions that wages lag behind. So there is a real loss in that. Those are numbers provided by the Turkish government.

3. Might be the case, what is your source? Turkey will do well if they managed to keep it below 11% this year, 11,5% is the prognoses.

4. So it stabilized itself for now, if the high inflations continue it can't sustain that level, common sense. And if you look at the long term trend, provided within the article: the trend is negative, with a small rise in February this year. So the timescale you picked isn't that represented I would say.

5. / 6. / 7. Ok, looking forward to your thoughts about it.

May I ask where this is coming from? Are you a German from Turkish descent?

Hard to say what I am. Latest when I got my German ID, I thought that I am German.
The "Multikulti" discussion in the 2000s and raising Islamophopia, later in the 2010s with increasing Turkey/Erdogan bashing people let me feel not so German.

To your points.
1) According to Turkish Ministry for Tourism tourist numbers fell in 1Q17 by -6.4% not -25%
July17 alone was an increase by 46%
Jan-Jul 2017 it was an increase by 22%
German tourists in July17 680.000 +3%
German tourists Jan-Jul17 1.9mil -10%

Actually a Magizin claiming such bold statements should provide a source.
The link they gave is saying tourist numbers rising.

Link for Turkish MofT: http://yigm.kulturturizm.gov.tr/Eklenti ... nxls.xls?0

2) As said before Turkey has since the 70ies high inflation. In the 90ies it was almost 3digit high.
However ruling AKParty managed to decrease it to single digit numbers.
Living almost 4 decades with inflation they have their mechanisms. Afaik they got payraises every 6 month. If Inflation is higher, wages are raised accordingly.
Especially before the referendum of 16.April.2017 I dont think it was stingy. In contrary there where lots of incentives, not only to bribe the people but also to stimulate the economy.
It worked. They won the referendum and economy is growing by 5%.

Edit: link only in Turkish, hope you can translate via Google. Reading quickly through article it says 6.92% for first six month.
https://www.google.de/amp/m.milliyet.co ... m-2480197/

3. Latest unemployment report from May 2017, rate is down to 10.2% . It is expected to decrease further when investments take effect.
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBult ... o?id=24630

4. I checked the Eur/Tly and US $/Tly.
Euro-lira is stable this year. US$ is falling also due to global trend of US $.


Now I am going to look for my links

Tkfan wrote:

5.5.6. Economic growth/Credibility/investments
I will answer this later. I have to look for links. If possible no Turkish links.

GDP growth data by Statistics Agency:
1Q16 + 4.5%
2Q16 +5.3%
3Q16 -1.3%
4Q16 +3.5%
1Q17 +5.0%

http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBult ... o?id=24567

Growthrate for 2Q17 is als expected >=5%, for 3Q17 >7% due to weak performance the year before.
I dont remember if there is a forecast made for 4Q17 but ovarall it is expected that Turkey will grow by >5% in 2017.


For credibilitiy/foreign investments as they are corelated, just the links I could find so far

- Spanish BBVA invests further 859m € in Turkish Garanti Bank
https://www.bbva.com/en/bbva-raises-sta ... nti-49-85/

- Dutch Vitol to aquire Turkish Petrol Ofisi for 1.368m €
http://www.vitol.com/vitol-acquire-turk ... ofisi-omv/

- German Siemens outbid 3 other German, 1 Danish, 1 Chinese and 1 American Consortium to invest over 1 billion in wind energy project
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... SKBN1AJ1FJ

These are just some European investments. I can provide more if you like.
But it should show the credibility and investment opportunities in Turkey.

This is a link I found, cold data, 2012 - 2016: http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/turkey

Rapid growth in population.

Thanks for posting the information and the post. I have learned something about Turkey.

tommy1808 wrote:

Tkfan wrote:

was it weak in 2016 when Tourist numbers decreased by almost 1/3 and Foreign Capital fled after the failed coup.
In Contrary, it seems they are booming again.

*seems* being the key word. Tourism did in deed recovered to pre-crisis levels, but tourism revenues only grew by about 10%, so revenue per tourist went down 1.1/1.5 ~27%.
If airline revenue per passenger dropped by 27%, we'd all know they are in big trouble.

Best regards
Thomas

Hi Thomas,
What is your source of 1.1/1.5 ~27%??
I just come to a drop of ~10% expenditure/tourist

2016 Jan-Jun
Tourists 12.602.588
Income 9.047m$
Avg 717 USD$

2017 Jan-Jun
Tourists 13.708.152
Income 8.783m $
Avg 640 USD $

Unfortunately a quaterly published report. So only the first half of 2016:
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBult ... o?id=24592

Tkfan wrote:

Hard to say what I am. Latest when I got my German ID, I thought that I am German.
The "Multikulti" discussion in the 2000s and raising Islamophopia, later in the 2010s with increasing Turkey/Erdogan bashing people let me feel not so German.

I sadden me to hear that. I know many of the Dutch - Turks seem to feel the same. But it has been hard for everyone, especially since Erdogan has come to power. Also with the referendum.

You feel that the media is bashing Erdogan (Turkey and Erdogan are two different things), I think Erdogan feels that every Turk is Turk first and in your case German second. He even called upon the Turks in Germany not to vote for certain parties.
The Dutch have had numerous of encounters with Erdogan's government, currently, we have no ambassador in Ankara because he is not welcome. I do not feel that the Dutch at least, are bashing Erdogan, they are very critical towards Erdogan's attitude towards it population, certainly the ones whom disagree with him. Erdogan has just won the referendum, although it was hardly a fair one, and he needed the votes from - arguably less progressive Turks, abroad to do it.

I have no solution for your feelings, I will say that I hope we all strive to solve it and that has to come from every side.

What I forgot to mention, I do respect Erdogan's government what they did with the economy, progress have been made.

Dutchy wrote:

This is a link I found, cold data, 2012 - 2016: http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/turkey

Rapid growth in population.

Thanks for posting the information and the post. I have learned something about Turkey.

Wow. Thank you Dutchy

Great to see that there are still some neutral People/Sources around.

As in my opening post already mentioned, I dont want to advocate Erdogan or Turkey,
I just want to understand why German society and media are concerned with it Day and Night. It seems it doesnt hurt Erdogan nor Turkey, but the tension between Germans and Turkish Migrants growing every Day. Sad

Look at this
https://www.google.de/amp/s/www.merkur. ... 0.amp.html

WIederling wrote:

..

WOW. Now I am really impressed what you know about EU-Turkey relations!!

Most people seem to have a short memory, but thats understandable with all this "news-polution". And surely they dont need to follow this issue as we are manipulated brainwashed by other topics.

To add to your totally right summary of EU-Turkey relation:
- in 1979/1980 Turkey had the only realistic chance to join together with Greece in the EWG/EEC (it was not a Union at that time). Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit refused.
- 1980 CIA-backed coup d'etat in Turkey made a halt in the relations.
- 1987 Turkey applied for Full Membership in EEC again
- 1990 upwards due to end of cold war, European Countries lost interest in Turkey anyway. Heck, they even wanted to scale back NATOs role and create an EEC/EU Army. There came the first reasonings with EU being a Christian-Club.
- pressured by USA EU agreed to sign a Customs union with Turkey. It began 1996.
This was just to avoid Membership talks which were neither accepted nor refused since 1987.
Helmut Kohl, Mitterand publicly spoke they dont want Turkeys membership. Instead the maximum they can offer is a privileged partnership.
-1998 when Schröder came in power, and 2002 AKP in Turkey, talks and relations started to flourish again.
After more than 15 years Turkeys application was accepted (! Not really)
Erdogan was celebrated as the Hero and Democrat in Europe. He also got an award in Germany (I dont remember exactly what)

There is more to add, I cut it here....
I will continue with Merkel era than
And Russian Fighter Shot

Basically Germany offered something that was never on the table, in the same movement that has added many Eastern European countries, leading to the current EU mess.

Countries with a short history of democracy have been successfully integrated in the union : Portugal, Spain, Greece, the DDR. With Eastern Europe it's much more of a mixed bag, and with Turkey, clearly it would take at least 2 generations for the country to be ready.

Aesma wrote:

Basically Germany offered something that was never on the table, in the same movement that has added many Eastern European countries, leading to the current EU mess.

Countries with a short history of democracy have been successfully integrated in the union : Portugal, Spain, Greece, the DDR. With Eastern Europe it's much more of a mixed bag, and with Turkey, clearly it would take at least 2 generations for the country to be ready.

True, Portugal, Greece, Spain, GDR had shorter democracy histories, but they entered only in an economic union, all it was about was money(transfers). No Maastricht criteria or Copenhagen criteria.
The Eastern European countries entered the EU, their democracies were still fragile, but needed the Money. And Germany needed more Bundesländer

Today as it was back than, when there is no money (economic problems) there will be a mess. Doesnt matter if Portugal, Spain, Poland, Hungary or Greece. EU is still far from a political Union à la USA but an economic.

Turkey will never enter the EU. This is no secret.

The EU is more than just an economic union, it is also a value union build on the premise, no more war. But granted it isn't a political union like the US is, don't know if it ever will be that integrated. As for Turkey joining the union, that is largely up to them, not the EU. With some political will, yes, but not on its current path.

To continue with the EU-Turkey love affair.
- After pressure of USA due to its second iraq war, EU startet membership talks in 2005.
Neither have they digested the new entrants from East-Europe (2004) nor they want a huge Country bordering Iran, Iraq, Syria.
- the entry talks are a never ending story, and if ever without final.

Now what is most disturbing, both sides know there will be no Membership, EU leaders or other Politicians believe they can threaten Turkey with stopping talks.

I dont know if they believe themselves to it or just want to appear strong towards their people/voters. Or are the just lying?
Just like to cut payments to Turkey

http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/ ... -oettinger

...Von den 4,45 Milliarden Euro, die für den Zeitraum 2014 bis 2020 für die Türkei zur Verfügung stehen, seien bisher nur 167,3 Millionen Euro ausbezahlt worden, sagte Hahn der Deutschen Presse-Agentur....

Turkey should receive 4.45billion €, so far, in 3 years, only 167,3 million are paid. Rest most probably not!!
So the anger of Europeans that Erdogan receives so much money from EU is baseless!!

Also the refugee-deal is another fraud to Turkey.
Turkey kept so far its promises, EU not
Again European politicians and media lying to public or hiding truth.
http://m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/flu ... 64502.html
So far 1 out of 6 billion € is paid. And visa-free travel for Turks is history again

Btw Turkish Goverment calculated approximately 27billion € costs since beginning of Syria-crisis.
Other sources estimate 50billion € so far and annual expenses of 20billion €.
http://www.zeit.de/2017/29/eu-tuerkei-a ... ld/seite-3

Dutchy wrote:

The EU is more than just an economic union, it is also a value union build on the premise, no more war. But granted it isn't a political union like the US is, don't know if it ever will be that integrated. As for Turkey joining the union, that is largely up to them, not the EU. With some political will, yes, but not on its current path.

You are really kind to have this nice thoughts.
But in reality neither in the past nor present no EU politician wants Turkey as a full member. And at the moment there are enough problems within the EU.
Kohl, Mitterand, Sarkozy, Merkel all publicly said they are against Turkeys membership.
For this purpose they are inventing again and again new rules to avoid it. Croatia was the last state to join EU by just negotiations. To prevent Turkeys entry all future candidates must be confirmed by referendum in all member states. Guess the possibility of Turkeys membership
I dont even know if they have closed half of the 35 chapters since 2005. Everytime a reason is found to block negotiations by any member..... so far, really little hope

I am afraid if this love-affair continues like this, Turkey will revise or cancel the customs-union with EU.

As for EU's status.... ideally it is a political union to boost economic cooperation to maintain peace, standing united for common values and interest etc.... but in reality its just for own economic benefits for most states or big enterprises (i.e. Lobbies).

I think you're starting to understand that EU adhesion was used by Erdogan to get elected, not because he really intended to deliver it.

Aesma wrote:

I think you're starting to understand that EU adhesion was used by Erdogan to get elected, not because he really intended to deliver it.

No. Actually the contrary was the case. He wanted full membership to prevent his Party closed and him banned from politics.
There was a trial at the very beginning, or he was banned at that time, last trial to close AKP was in 2008.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Ju ... sure_trial

When AKP came into power in 2002 they quickly implemented a lot of democratic changes (well, all what was necessary to meet Copenhagen criteria)
- canceling death penalties
- closing National Security Courts (kind of military courts for civilians)
- legalising Kurdish language
- giving Minorities, also religious, more freedom
And lots more.

Thats why he was regarded a democratic Hero in Europe at that time
He even got a prize in Germany for Tolerance in 2009
https://m.abendblatt.de/politik/deutsch ... eranz.html

Tkfan wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

The EU is more than just an economic union, it is also a value union build on the premise, no more war. But granted it isn't a political union like the US is, don't know if it ever will be that integrated. As for Turkey joining the union, that is largely up to them, not the EU. With some political will, yes, but not on its current path.

You are really kind to have this nice thoughts.
But in reality neither in the past nor present no EU politician wants Turkey as a full member. And at the moment there are enough problems within the EU.
Kohl, Mitterand, Sarkozy, Merkel all publicly said they are against Turkeys membership.
For this purpose they are inventing again and again new rules to avoid it. Croatia was the last state to join EU by just negotiations. To prevent Turkeys entry all future candidates must be confirmed by referendum in all member states. Guess the possibility of Turkeys membership

That is simply not true, there was a time that Turkey was welcome, but that was a much more liberal state than the current Turkey. Presently, no not possible.

Yes, at the moment, it would not be a good idea to add a large member as Turkey, just for because the EU isn't ready for that, it needs to solve some of its problems first. But that has nothing to do with Turkey it self, that is victimizing frame from the Turkish side.

As for the rules, I am not aware that there are new rules and certainly not rules that are invented just to keep Turkey out. Could you please provide us with some examples of this? Turkey has to adapt to the acquis communautaire, rules might be added as new regulation is adopted within the EU, common sense and got nothing to do with Turkey.

Could you please provide us with the rules which state that all new members must be approved by referendum? I could give you a reasoning that that is simply not the case. In The Netherlands, we have no provision for a binding referendum, so it would be quite impossible to do this right now because it is against the law. All new members must be accepted by unanimity, so if some countries have provision to hold a referendum about it, then yes there will be a referendum, binding or not, but I have never heard that it will be mandatory. So I look forward to your source for this.

Tkfan wrote:

I dont even know if they have closed half of the 35 chapters since 2005. Everytime a reason is found to block negotiations by any member..... so far, really little hope

And what is the role of Turkey in this all? You can't just put it all with EU members, Turkey has a role to play, if they want to join. The EU has paid millions in order for Turkey to adapt, for instance, the juristical system, with the fall out of the coup d'etar it has been set back for years. You mentioned Croatia, yes they got in via negotiations, why would Turkey be any different? It comes all down to Turkey's willingness to accept the rules of the EU, with all that comes with it and I hasn't seen that commitment. Croatia is a small country so perhaps that plays a part, Turkey is a large nation and perhaps Turkish nationalism plays a part as well, not willing to accept rules from outside? And there is the Cyprus thing, Turkish Cyprus has to be given up, are they willing to do that?

Tkfan wrote:

I am afraid if this love-affair continues like this, Turkey will revise or cancel the customs-union with EU.

Ok, that is fine, that's up to Turkey. You do understand that this is as much as a benefit to Turkey as to the EU if not much more.

Tkfan wrote:

As for EU's status.... ideally it is a political union to boost economic cooperation to maintain peace, standing united for common values and interest etc.... but in reality its just for own economic benefits for most states or big enterprises (i.e. Lobbies).

Part of it is indeed, another part isn't, I still believe in the European project with its underpinning value's and yes lobbies got too much influence. And I think your whole reasoning shows it, if it was just about the economy, why not let Turkey in, another 80m of consumers, if it is more than just that, you get this progress.

With German citizens arrested randomley and for no legal reason whatsoever at Turkish borders, the German government ia short of calling a travel ban on Turkey.

Whoever complains about "Erdogan bashing" must know that he turned a demcracy into an autocratic Regime. How can I, as a German citizen, take someone serious who calls our political leaders "Nazis", who interferes with our domestic politics by issuing voting recommendations to Germans. How can I respect a dictator who takes hostages so that he can possibly Exchange them for Turkish citizens who have come to Germany to seek asylum.

OK, our federal and state governments, mainly in NRW, have made the mistake to let this guy hold political speeches, adressing his followers here. This should have never happpened and hopefully will happen never again.

Erdogan does not respecty anything and anybody outside his Family and hos cronies. The Assumtion that he himself has stages the coup is not far fetched. Why else should he have built all These giant prisons if not to lock up People who know someone who is reported to knpw someone who has ties with the Guelen movement.

PanHAM wrote:

With German citizens arrested randomley and for no legal reason whatsoever at Turkish borders, the German government ia short of calling a travel ban on Turkey.

Whoever complains about "Erdogan bashing" must know that he turned a demcracy into an autocratic Regime. How can I, as a German citizen, take someone serious who calls our political leaders "Nazis", who interferes with our domestic politics by issuing voting recommendations to Germans. How can I respect a dictator who takes hostages so that he can possibly Exchange them for Turkish citizens who have come to Germany to seek asylum.

OK, our federal and state governments, mainly in NRW, have made the mistake to let this guy hold political speeches, adressing his followers here. This should have never happpened and hopefully will happen never again.

Erdogan does not respecty anything and anybody outside his Family and hos cronies. The Assumtion that he himself has stages the coup is not far fetched. Why else should he have built all These giant prisons if not to lock up People who know someone who is reported to knpw someone who has ties with the Guelen movement.

Same goes for The Netherlands. A Turkish minister wanted to give a political speech which was explicitly forbidden by the Dutch authorities, she came anyway, she had to be escorted out of the country. And there was a case in which a child of Turkish descent had to be taken out of his home because of child abuse, he was placed by child services with a couple which was willing to take care of this child as he deserves. The couple in question happened to be lesbian. The Turkish government complained about this with the Dutch government. What they totally missed: 1) preferably children are placed in an environment which they culturally know, not many Dutch Turks are willing to do this, 2) the government doesn't take a child from its parents just like that, it must be in the child's best interest to do this. 3) It is a Dutch child, a Dutch citizen in The Netherlands, the Turkish government has no say in that.
And yes there are Dutch nationals being picked-up and some are locked-up as we speak. The Turks are doing everything to have a bad relationship with the EU and its individual members.
The whole Geulen thing is being exported to the Netherlands as well, some of the Turkish community feel it is ok to boycott or worse Turks with the Geulen movement.

And those giant prisons are partly built with EU money, that is the ultimate irony here.

Tkfan wrote:

Also the refugee-deal is another fraud to Turkey.
Turkey kept so far its promises, EU not
Again European politicians and media lying to public or hiding truth.
http://m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/flu ... 64502.html
So far 1 out of 6 billion € is paid. And visa-free travel for Turks is history again

Btw Turkish Goverment calculated approximately 27billion € costs since beginning of Syria-crisis.
Other sources estimate 50billion € so far and annual expenses of 20billion €.
http://www.zeit.de/2017/29/eu-tuerkei-a ... ld/seite-3

OK, forgot to address this one.
Do you know why the visa-free travel is suspended? Because Turkey doesn't meet the requirements for that. Do you suggest we need to lower the standards for passports and some other official requirements in order to facilitate the Turks?

Is it the EU's fault that Syria has exploded? So why mention the money spent by Turkey for this group? Or are you suggesting that the EU should pay for all?

With a little research: first 3bn is to be paid (to aid organisations, not the Turkish government BTW) at the end of 2017 and the remainder at the end of 2018. So could you provide us with a statement that the EU is not doing its bit? (BTW not many refugees were actually taken back to Turkey)
http://www.politico.eu/article/gunther- ... ugee-deal/

All in all, I think you, unconsciously perhaps, look too favourable to the Turkish side of things and not what Erdogan's government is actually doing - besides the rethoric - and its role in all of this.

Just like with the Brits and their Brexit, Turkey wants something (joining the EU or not), then they need to give something in return.

I think, in the end, we will see a model of the EU with some core-members (highly integrated on most subjects, free travel etc., Euro, financial control and perhaps even some sort of EU army), some members outside this core, all non-Euro EU members, and favourable nations with which the EU holds a close relationship, in this category is Turkey, UK, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, small European nations like Vaticaanstad, Lichtenstein, Andorra and perhaps some other nations around the med. like Marrocco, Israel etc. Some eastern European countries, like Ukraine, Georgia etc.
In that way Turkey can do its thing and still maintain a close relationship with the EU, without joining. Best for all I think.

I have to correct myself. the German Government does of course not issue travel bans. It should read travel "alert". Generally, German citizens can travel where they want and when the want. They will of course get consular assistance should they be arrested. One of the many Problems the world has with the Erdogan Regime is, that they arrest foreign citizens without telling and without alllowing that the victims receive consular assstance. Which is against all international rules and standards

PanHAM wrote:

I have to correct myself. the German Government does of course not issue travel bans. It should read travel "alert". Generally, German citizens can travel where they want and when the want. They will of course get consular assistance should they be arrested. One of the many Problems the world has with the Erdogan Regime is, that they arrest foreign citizens without telling and without alllowing that the victims receive consular assstance. Which is against all international rules and standards

The cases involving Dutch citizens, they seem to claim since they are Turkish passport holders they are treated like Turkish citizens not like foreigners. Is that the case with these German cases?
In the local news, there were some Dutch-Turks whom were afraid to go to Turkey because they might be arrested.

The current two arrests concerns naturalized German citizens holding German citizenship only. Turkey seems to ignore the fact, the arrogant reply by the turkish Foreign Minister was that thi is None of Germanys Business. Which is utter BS, totally ignoring the individual rights of These People.

Such issues separate democratic Governments from autocratic egimes.

Thank you Dutchy and PanHAM so far for the posts.
I will adress to them as soon as Bayram-weekend is over, and I have more time.

In the meantime, if you are really interested whats going on in Turkey, you should know what and who the Gülen-Organisation is. They have literellay a lot impact on Turkey for almost 40 years and especially since AKP is in power.

There is a good documentary produced by German WDR in 2013. So far the most neutral and unbiased information I found about them (neither Erdogans claims againts him nor Anti-Erdoganist to protect him)

Unfortunately in German, about 45min:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zr1LWuxVLYs

So far, have a nice rest-weekend

So much posts to reply I try to sum it up in topics.

1. EU-Turkey membership talks.
We all are made think this is negotiations between EU and Turkey.
Unfortunately its not. USA plays a deciding and definite role in this. Ultimate decision is Turkey not to let in but give Turkey once in a while some sweeties if Turkey is needed for geostrategic reasons.

So as long as Turkey obeys Uncle Sams politics in Middle East and towards Russia, Turkey is a rising star, if not, Turkey is to be avoided.
Dont think I am victimising Turkey or believe in conspiracy theories. Just look at European history after WW2.

So basically EU-Turkey talks are on hold until Turkey plays the game USA wants.
Multiple EU countries and leaders publicly stated they dont want Turkeys membership but still "negotiations " continue.
European parliament, the only democratic institution in Europe, elected by the peoples wants the talks stopped, but its NOT binding. So the people of EU have nothing to say.
European commision on the other side, created by Lobbyists and Geostrategists, is still holding to negotiations.

In short, the hiccups in EU-Turkey relations is not due details of who did what and who didnt fulfilled its obligations.
If Reason would rule EU, members like Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus, Croatia etc would not let in so soon.

uhhhh, I do not recognize anything of what I have said in this summery. And I think it lags understanding about basic EU rules, geopolitics and ignoring what is happening in Turkey. Furthermore, it is insulting to the EU and Turkey to say that Uncle Sam has a vote in this and even has a final say in it.

So I do not subscribe to this summary, sorry.

Dutchy wrote:

uhhhh, I do not recognize anything of what I have said in this summery. And I think it lags understanding about basic EU rules, geopolitics and ignoring what is happening in Turkey. Furthermore, it is insulting to the EU and Turkey to say that Uncle Sam has a vote in this and even has a final say in it.

So I do not subscribe to this summary, sorry.

Well this was not a direct answer to your posts.
This is only to give a general picture. I dont want you to believe it, just to keep in mind.
When we talk details or me elaborating other points, you may see if it matches to this general picture.

2. EU paymants and refugee deal
Just to remember, EU agreed to pay 4.5billion € between 2014-2020. So far, in 3 years just 170million € are payed.
This money is not just transferred to Goverments Budget but to projects, NGOs, associations to faciliate/promote/strengthen democratic, european etc. Values and structure or humanitarian infrastructure etc.
Its really strange that so far they dont develope or find, neither European institutions nor Turkish partners, to develope any projects or initiatives.
There are lots of European institutions, foundations in Turkey.
Most German parties have foundations, afaik there are at least 4 of them in Turkey.
So if they dont trust govermental or other turkish institutions/NGOs, there are plenty European institutions in Turkey. Well if they really intend to do what they say

Dutchy wrote:

.....

And those giant prisons are partly built with EU money, that is the ultimate irony here.

I am not surprised
Its not only ultimate irony, its also ultimate hypocrisy.

Like SPD leader Martin Schulz,
Last year as EU Commissioner, he advocated Turkey/Erdogan and wanted the EU leaders to fulfill their duties towards Turkey and also unblock the payments, today as he is in an elections campaign, and knowing that he wont win, says he would stop EU talks and stop payments.
Hypocrisy at its best.



With EUs obligations towards Turkey due refugee-deal.
Leave visa-freedom aside, was not really intended by EU.
So far, my understanding is 3billion € untill end of 2017 and another 3 billion in 2018.

First tranche of 3b€ is split 2b € from EU budget and 1b € from member states.
So far only few members payed in two years!!!
2+X billion still missing and no sign that it will be payed.
Here also like said above, if they do not want to pay directly to Goverment, there are plenty humanitarian organisations. If they also dont trust these turkish organisations, they can do it with their owns or with international Red Cross or UN.
There are plenty possibilities if really intended.


But thats all not my concern.
Its totally unacceptable that they make the public believe Turkey receives billions of aid.
The anger of the people is growing when they think their lovely tax-payments are going to Erdogan that he can built his 1000-room palace.
Its really poisoning the atmosphere here in Germany and maybe all of Europe.

Tkfan wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

Tkfan wrote:

was it weak in 2016 when Tourist numbers decreased by almost 1/3 and Foreign Capital fled after the failed coup.
In Contrary, it seems they are booming again.

*seems* being the key word. Tourism did in deed recovered to pre-crisis levels, but tourism revenues only grew by about 10%, so revenue per tourist went down 1.1/1.5 ~27%.
If airline revenue per passenger dropped by 27%, we'd all know they are in big trouble.

Best regards
Thomas

Hi Thomas,
What is your source of 1.1/1.5 ~27%??

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/tourism-revenues

best regards
Thomas

3. Issues/Tensions Germany-Turkey

Part I
Banning Turkish Politicians to rally in Germany (Europe)

It is very common in democracies that there are rallies held be it an election or a referendum. When you have voters abroad, and who may influence the outcome, than its very natural that you go to them and influence/convince them.

Germany and Germans being anti-Erdogan had all of a sudden an issue with this democratic practice. Not only that they wanted to influence the Turkish voting they also enflamed tensions between Germans and Turkish Migrants and together with it anti-Turkish sentiments.

In the 80/90ies we were used to hear "Türken raus" "Ausländer raus" now it is very fashionable and common to hear "Go back to your Sultan" etc.
Thats dramatic. Previously it was a slogan of a little political groupe/ideologie now it is also used even by leftist.

The only Hero and Democrat in this Theater was Deniz Baykal, a opponent CHP politician, who refused to come to Germany although he was not only allowed but also invited by Germans.
So far the German interference in Turkish votings.
Best of all, the leader of the Green party activly promoting to vote against Erdogan.

Erdogans Nazi accusion.
I have watched several times the video. There is no scene where he said Merkel is a Nazi or Germans are Nazi.
He said not allowing them to speak to their people are Nazi methods. Funny that some people or politicians take it personally. If I am not a Nazi I wouldn't feel adressed. Psychology 101

tommy1808 wrote:

Tkfan wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

*seems* being the key word. Tourism did in deed recovered to pre-crisis levels, but tourism revenues only grew by about 10%, so revenue per tourist went down 1.1/1.5 ~27%.
If airline revenue per passenger dropped by 27%, we'd all know they are in big trouble.

Best regards
Thomas

Hi Thomas,
What is your source of 1.1/1.5 ~27%??

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/tourism-revenues

best regards
Thomas

Ok. This maches with the data of Statistics Agency.
You calculated with 2Q17 only numbers. I did with 1H17

Tkfan wrote:

You calculated with 2Q17 only numbers. I did with 1H17

The curve shows extremely seasonal min/max values ( 1:3 ).
But from 2015 to 2016 main season volume under the peak seems to have contracted by 50% ?
Not much to say for the 2017 summer season yet.