Sat Jun 24, 2017 5:13 pm
So, what is the next step, assuming Qatar is not going to change course (and really, I can't see any sovereign state acceding to demands such as this)?
Qatar, by not taking any of the steps "required" by the other states is effectively daring the states lined up against it to take action, but what else can they do short of action which may put them on a collision course with Iran? (Has Iran said - or is it assumed - that the invasion of Qatar by the KSA, UAE and Bahrain) would trigger an armed conflict. As much as Saudi Arabia hates Iran, the latter has a population significantly higher and I wouldn't give much for the KSA's chances against Iran in a drawn out conflict (which a battle between them would be). And Iran could do serious damage to the UAE too.
All of that said, the three countries could do serious damage to Qatar's economy by banging the war drums and "suggesting" all foreign nations leave within a 10-14 day period and thereafter, imposing an air and sea embargo - which Qatar is almost totally reliant on for commerce, let alone food. How Turkey would react to this is another issue, but I don't think the Saudis would want to take on Iran and Turkey together. Turkey would almost certainly ignore Saudi threats; Saudi would probably react by cutting them off, i.e. preventing access to Qatar by Turkish military aircraft. Qatar's military would probably last about half an hour on a good day against Saudi, though if they had any sense, they would probably be constructing anti-tank defences in anticipation of an attack.
Could the UN or any other international agency, or indeed, countries such as India, China or the groups such as the EU intervene and try and organise a solution? Certainly, this has the potential to develop into a very nasty conflict and there are probably voices on both sides of the Gulf who believe that a conflict between Iran and the KSA is only a matter of time. It would be, like the Iran-Iraq war, a very bloody conflict, but unlike the Iran of 1980, the invasion of which Saddam Hussein thought would be a pretty straightforward matter, the Iran of 2017 is (despite embargos) a pretty well armed, trained and equipped country and would have the potential to hit the KSA as hard as it is hit itself. Would the KSA call Iran's bluff? Well, I guess that's the key question ...