Olddog wrote:

Well you should remember that 70 % of the car made in the UK are for export.....

Didn't you hear, the UK economy is so strong that suddenly having 57% of the car exports facing Tarifs is a much smaller problem then Germany having Tarifs for 20% of theirs. ..

Best regards
Thomas

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Then he will also be saying bye bye to the Renault, Citroen and Pug cars France sells in the UK.

We'll see how it works out. Britain could have import taxes on all European cars, but that will mean that for the British Euro cars become more expensive and that cars produced in the UK will be more expensive in the EU, which will mean that most car manufacturers will leave the UK. So who will be the big winner in this? Or better whom stand to loose the most in that kind of thinking?

Well the EU does. Look how many french, germany, italian and spanish cars are sold in the EU each year. Compared to how many British cars are sold in the EU, it will be a lot higher. The EU's largest export market is the UK. The UK are also net importers from the EU. So its the EU's suicide call.

Please have a reality check. In your world the UK can ask for what it wants because they are (60m) are much more powerful than the EU (450m). Please explain how that works?

Bostrom wrote:

vc10 wrote:

Would I be correct in saying that most of Macron supporters were mostly city dwellers , whereas Penns supporters were from the country side, or even is the split north /south.

It looks like Le Pen had the most support in the north east. She won Aisne and Pas de Calais and Macron won all the other 99 départements. http://graphics.france24.com/results-se ... tion-2017/

(Even though the french presidential election is about winning the most votes and not the most départements, it shows the regional distribution of the votes.)

No real support fo her candidacy. In the Dutch press, there was an article that she will reform the Front National and even change the name. We will see what will happen with FN.

NIKV69 wrote:

Hillis wrote:

Looks like the French are a helluva lot smarter than many voters in the United States. Congratulations, France, on not giving into hatred and fear.

Yes because wanting a good job with fair taxation and secure borders is rooted in hatred and fear.

Since that is pretty much what everybody wants on this planet you can be reasonable sure that those who implement that in a fundamentalist way, like your great leader and GOP that just set of to kill more Americans than war and terrorism combined, in exchange for "fair" taxes for the rich, are in deed right wing fundamentalist....
Considering that not even Bernie Sanders is left wing on most of this planet, it is no surprise that you end up with a ruling party that uses biological weapons (=illness) against its own citizens. Not much difference between the Assad and the Trump Regime left since last week...

best regards
Thomas

NIKV69 wrote:

Hillis wrote:

Looks like the French are a helluva lot smarter than many voters in the United States. Congratulations, France, on not giving into hatred and fear.

Yes because wanting a good job with fair taxation and secure borders is rooted in hatred and fear.

LePan wouldn't have given you those things, maybe and the is a Maybe with a capital M, secure borders, all the other things, she couldnot deliver to the French. Like all populist, they might get elected, but cannot deliver.

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Well the EU does. Look how many french, germany, italian and spanish cars are sold in the EU each year. Compared to how many British cars are sold in the EU, it will be a lot higher. The EU's largest export market is the UK. The UK are also net importers from the EU. So its the EU's suicide call.

Please have a reality check. In your world the UK can ask for what it wants because they are (60m) are much more powerful than the EU (450m). Please explain how that works?

Perhaps have a reality check on the whole idea of the EU.

I never said that, It can't ask for what It wants but you pro EU crowd promote it that Britain has zero bargaining power.

Close to it, I would say. I think, like I said before, Britain has to decide what it wants, access to the EU internal market, but accept everything that goes with it (Norwegian model) or don't accept anything and stay out of the internal market. Why would the EU accept any other deal which is going to exceptional favor Britain? More so, than any other country outside the EU?

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Perhaps have a reality check on the whole idea of the EU.

I never said that, It can't ask for what It wants but you pro EU crowd promote it that Britain has zero bargaining power.

Close to it, I would say. I think, like I said before, Britain has to decide what it wants, access to the EU internal market, but accept everything that goes with it (Norwegian model) or don't accept anything and stay out of the internal market. Why would the EU accept any other deal which is going to exceptional favor Britain? More so, than any other country outside the EU?

I would say Britain have more bargaining power than you think. Don't get me wrong the EU has more. There is way more EU citizens living in the UK than British citizens in the EU. The ammount of British tourists that visit Spain, Portugal and Greece is huge. I know we are talking about trade but these issues will be bargaining chips too. Putting any form of visa in or travel requirements will slice the throat of the economies of places like Tenerife, Zante and Madeira.

If Geert Wilders had suceeded and nexit had happened, would you still have such a hostile attitude to negotiations?

Geert Wilders only has 20 seats of the 76 required, in Dutch parliament, no other party, except some really small parties are in favor of a Nexit. But to answer your question, I would be quite disappointed if there was a Nexit, and after a year of five, I might think about the consequences

But I think you have me all wrong, I would like Britain to have the kind of deal Norway has, nice and cozy . Lots of trade, the barriers to the minimum. Furthermore, I would like the EU realize that the free flow of people only works to a certain degree and that this only works for the upper levels of the job marked., not for the bottom of it. So the Brexit is a good time to look at this and reintroduce a working visa for some groups and free market for certain other levels. Britain could join that scheme as well because one of the reasons - as I understand it - the influx of eastern Europeans.

As far as the bargaining power goes, British tourist could still go to the holiday destinations, why not? Visa requirement are something of the country which is receiving the tourist, or the EU, that isn't in the power of the UK. UK could introduce visa requirements for EU citizens, but that will hurt the UK too and might not trikker the same reaction in the EU. So I would say not that strong. As for EU citizens living in the UK vs. UK citizens living in the EU,
- UK in EU: 1,2million
- EU in UK: 3,3million

So yes, there seems to be a surplus of EU citizens in the UK, so on the face of it, it seems that Britain has a bargaining chip here. But does it really? Is it in British best interest to expel the 3,3m and get the 1,2m back? As May already offered to give the 3,3m a permanent residences ship after the Brexit, if the EU does the same for UK citizens, it doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

Like I said, I honestly hope there will be a fair deal and hopefully as close to the EU as possible, but since Prime Minister May has advocated a hard Brexit, which will be the ultimate loose - loose, you can't expect me to be to thrilled by this. Like I said before and will be repeating, the choice is yours, Britain, lots of options to chose from, but don't expect a special treatment (but no punishment either, if it were up to me). So in this, I concur with the prime ministers of Denmark, Ireland, and The Netherlands: http://www.politico.eu/article/northern ... therlands/
You see that Britain still have friends across the sea. But the attitude in Westminster has to change as well. Going after a hard Brexit will harden the stand within the EU as well, quite understandable, since there is nothing to negotiate anymore.

But at the moment, the choice is back to the British, it is up to you to choose in the upcoming election what you want. Conservatives or more EU orientated Labour or more to the extreme Liberal Democrats. Perhaps after the elections, things will calm down and the real negotiations can begin.

Hope you understand that it feels like you guys took of my arm, without asking me, and it hurts, I love the Birtish

pvjin wrote:

Pihero wrote:

You've learned your lesson well but you'll find , at least in France quite a few people to oppose you.

Yep, the greedy baby boomer generation wants to sustain its privilege as long as possible, but ultimately the change will come when the youth of the today enters middle-age with no money or future in current neoliberal system, and the boomers die of old age.

Whoeps, you missed something in the quote there, let me help you: "I see you've understood how the nazis got into power. You've learned your lesson well but you'll find , at least in France quite a few people to oppose you."



But ok, at least you put the blame with the right group, people whom have too much priveledges which cost society too much whereby the younger generation pays double for. That needs to change, I agree with you.

Dutchy wrote:

But I think you have me all wrong, I would like Britain to have the kind of deal Norway has, nice and cozy . Lots of trade, the barriers to the minimum. Furthermore, I would like the EU realize that the free flow of people only works to a certain degree and that this only works for the upper levels of the job marked., not for the bottom of it.

It works on all levels and is beneficial to almost everyone. Freedom of movement is the reason why we can get products and services cheap, while nations like Irland or Portugal are not low wage hellholes anymore.

As far as the bargaining power goes, British tourist could still go to the holiday destinations, why not?

They will still go where the price leads them. Just one look at floor plans of current and historic UK charter flights tell you that it is a highly price sensitive market. If Spain remains relatively cheap and easy to get to, geography doesn´t change, they will still go to Spain
.

Visa requirement are something of the country which is receiving the tourist, or the EU, that isn't in the power of the UK. UK could introduce visa requirements for EU citizens, but that will hurt the UK too and might not trikker the same reaction in the EU. So I would say not that strong. As for EU citizens living in the UK vs. UK citizens living in the EU,
- UK in EU: 1,2million
- EU in UK: 3,3million

So yes, there seems to be a surplus of EU citizens in the UK, so on the face of it, it seems that Britain has a bargaining chip here. But does it really? Is it in British best interest to expel the 3,3m and get the 1,2m back? As May already offered to give the 3,3m a permanent residences ship after the Brexit, if the EU does the same for UK citizens, it doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

More importantly, they are 7% of the total UK Labour force, they need them to stay.

But at the moment, the choice is back to the British, it is up to you to choose in the upcoming election what you want. Conservatives or more EU orientated Labour or more to the extreme Liberal Democrats. Perhaps after the elections, things will calm down and the real negotiations can begin.

The options are quite well defined on the EU side, the UK just needs to pick one and start negotiate the details with the EU.

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

But I think you have me all wrong, I would like Britain to have the kind of deal Norway has, nice and cozy . Lots of trade, the barriers to the minimum. Furthermore, I would like the EU realize that the free flow of people only works to a certain degree and that this only works for the upper levels of the job marked., not for the bottom of it.

It works on all levels and is beneficial to almost everyone. Freedom of movement is the reason why we can get products and services cheap, while nations like Irland or Portugal are not low wage hellholes anymore.

Thomas, don't close your eyes for what is happening in the job market. People do get hurt by this and prices do go down. Don't exactly know what is going on within Germany at the moment, but in The Netherlands - and this is not all due to Eastern Europeans coming over here, but mostly because of government policy - the lower income brackets do suffer from the influx of labor. Let me give you an example, the A2 tunnel, government project, the lowest bidder got it, it was way more of course than 4,5m, so European companies got to compete. I thought a Portugal firm got it, with employees registered in Ireland and so on, people working there got paid far less than would be possible for Dutch firms, while doing this in The Netherlands. So in a real sense, the Dutch workers got screwed on wages. And if Europe wants to do something for its citizens, then you have to do something about this, same work, same wages in order for ordinary workers not to compete on this. Easily done for work that is place-restricted, just make it compulsory to follow the same wages as in the host country. A simple step, but will put an end to all these kind of constructions. We are an aviation website, so you see what is being done by Ryanair or Norwegian, so not just the lower wage job suffers.

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

I would say Britain have more bargaining power than you think. Don't get me wrong the EU has more. There is way more EU citizens living in the UK than British citizens in the EU. The ammount of British tourists that visit Spain, Portugal and Greece is huge. I know we are talking about trade but these issues will be bargaining chips too. Putting any form of visa in or travel requirements will slice the throat of the economies of places like Tenerife, Zante and Madeira.

If Geert Wilders had suceeded and nexit had happened, would you still have such a hostile attitude to negotiations?

Geert Wilders only has 20 seats of the 76 required, in Dutch parliament, no other party, except some really small parties are in favor of a Nexit. But to answer your question, I would be quite disappointed if there was a Nexit, and after a year of five, I might think about the consequences

But I think you have me all wrong, I would like Britain to have the kind of deal Norway has, nice and cozy . Lots of trade, the barriers to the minimum. Furthermore, I would like the EU realize that the free flow of people only works to a certain degree and that this only works for the upper levels of the job marked., not for the bottom of it. So the Brexit is a good time to look at this and reintroduce a working visa for some groups and free market for certain other levels. Britain could join that scheme as well because one of the reasons - as I understand it - the influx of eastern Europeans.

As far as the bargaining power goes, British tourist could still go to the holiday destinations, why not? Visa requirement are something of the country which is receiving the tourist, or the EU, that isn't in the power of the UK. UK could introduce visa requirements for EU citizens, but that will hurt the UK too and might not trikker the same reaction in the EU. So I would say not that strong. As for EU citizens living in the UK vs. UK citizens living in the EU,
- UK in EU: 1,2million
- EU in UK: 3,3million

So yes, there seems to be a surplus of EU citizens in the UK, so on the face of it, it seems that Britain has a bargaining chip here. But does it really? Is it in British best interest to expel the 3,3m and get the 1,2m back? As May already offered to give the 3,3m a permanent residences ship after the Brexit, if the EU does the same for UK citizens, it doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

Like I said, I honestly hope there will be a fair deal and hopefully as close to the EU as possible, but since Prime Minister May has advocated a hard Brexit, which will be the ultimate loose - loose, you can't expect me to be to thrilled by this. Like I said before and will be repeating, the choice is yours, Britain, lots of options to chose from, but don't expect a special treatment (but no punishment either, if it were up to me). So in this, I concur with the prime ministers of Denmark, Ireland, and The Netherlands: http://www.politico.eu/article/northern ... therlands/
You see that Britain still have friends across the sea. But the attitude in Westminster has to change as well. Going after a hard Brexit will harden the stand within the EU as well, quite understandable, since there is nothing to negotiate anymore.

But at the moment, the choice is back to the British, it is up to you to choose in the upcoming election what you want. Conservatives or more EU orientated Labour or more to the extreme Liberal Democrats. Perhaps after the elections, things will calm down and the real negotiations can begin.

Hope you understand that it feels like you guys took of my arm, without asking me, and it hurts, I love the Birtish

Well at least you are being decent about it. Its only since brexit I have realised how involved the rest of the world can be in our politics. I recently lived in New Zealand and they knew all about it. Seems many non UKers on this forum know the exact details too.

Sure, the world is far more interconnected and with the Brexit, it isn't just your politics, EU-27 do feel the consequences of it what you decide to do.

Dutchy wrote:

Easily done for work that is place-restricted, just make it compulsory to follow the same wages as in the host country.

Exactly. No need to restrict movement of people in any way, just make sure wage dumping isn´t possible, minimum wage also helps.

We are an aviation website, so you see what is being done by Ryanair or Norwegian, so not just the lower wage job suffers.

They made Lufthansa a much better airline, with significantly more friendly staff and even drink and snack are back on short haul flying. The subsidy grabbing, that was a problem, not the business modell in itself.

You and i live and work in Europe, high taxing, relatively high wages, highly bureaucratic, high social security costs.... i don´t know what business you are in, but i am in IT, i have to compete with Chinese, Vietnamese, Taiwanese and so on countrymen every day i go to work. We have to compete a lot harder every day than just Irish vs. NL/German wages/labor law/regulations. Competition is good.

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Easily done for work that is place-restricted, just make it compulsory to follow the same wages as in the host country.

Exactly. No need to restrict movement of people in any way, just make sure wage dumping isn´t possible, minimum wage also helps.

We are an aviation website, so you see what is being done by Ryanair or Norwegian, so not just the lower wage job suffers.

They made Lufthansa a much better airline, with significantly more friendly staff and even drink and snack are back on short haul flying. The subsidy grabbing, that was a problem, not the business modell in itself.

You and i live and work in Europe, high taxing, relatively high wages, highly bureaucratic, high social security costs.... i don´t know what business you are in, but i am in IT, i have to compete with Chinese, Vietnamese, Taiwanese and so on countrymen every day i go to work. We have to compete a lot harder every day than just Irish vs. NL/German wages/labor law/regulations. Competition is good.

best regards
Thomas

I am in construction / building, I am a developer, so far less competition from the outside world

I believe in competition, but not in the subject of wages. Compete on your product, compete on productivity etc. And sure, Ryanair and Norwegian forced legacy carriers to rethink their business models. That is a good thing, but the way Ryanair and to a lesser extent, Norwegian treats its employees is something which should not be possible. Last elections in The Netherlands, some left parties said, flexible should be more expensive than secure jobs for the employer. I think he was right, nowadays flexible is less expensive for an employer and the employees suffer from this, flex jobs all around. But that is something the countries have to deal with, not the EU. And to bring it back to the content of this thread, in France it is the same. They need to be more competitive and more flexible. Yesterday the first marches were in Paris against the upcoming president. I don't think he meant this kind of marches with his slogan, En Marche . The Denish model is kind of neat, secure jobs are less secure, but if you get fired than the unemployment benefits are high, 90% of what you made and long, but you need to get re-trained. That model works and gives the businesses the flexibility that they need, without the employees suffering in their rights to much. So a balanced system I would say.

Aesma wrote:

Emmanuel Macron has talked about changing the Bolkestein Directive so that all parts of the salary are the same for all workers.

Yes, that would solve most problems.

Also, clamping down on abuse must be made easier. The ECJ just ruled that French work inspectors couldn't cancel the working authorization of foreign workers because the authorization was not a French document so they had no authority. That's ridiculous, if someone is working in France then French work inspectors must have authority. Make them EU work inspectors if need be.

I don´t see the problem, drive to the employer/principal, arrest them, give them a hefty fine and expropriate their business if they get caught again. You don´t accidentally employ anyone below legal standards, you do that on purpose. More important than fines: put them in Jail. Not on parole, really in Jail, doesn´t even have to be long. No need to go after the workers. Quite the opposite, give them a quick lesson in what they are entitled to get.

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

Aesma wrote:

Emmanuel Macron has talked about changing the Bolkestein Directive so that all parts of the salary are the same for all workers.

Yes, that would solve most problems.

Also, clamping down on abuse must be made easier. The ECJ just ruled that French work inspectors couldn't cancel the working authorization of foreign workers because the authorization was not a French document so they had no authority. That's ridiculous, if someone is working in France then French work inspectors must have authority. Make them EU work inspectors if need be.

I don´t see the problem, drive to the employer/principal, arrest them, give them a hefty fine and expropriate their business if they get caught again. You don´t accidentally employ anyone below legal standards, you do that on purpose. More important than fines: put them in Jail. Not on parole, really in Jail, doesn´t even have to be long. No need to go after the workers. Quite the opposite, give them a quick lesson in what they are entitled to get.

best regards
Thomas

Exactly and thereby showing that the EU will work for everyone.

pvjin wrote:

A large portion of master's degrees out there are already useless, not everybody can be a top scientist, doctor or whatever. What should the rest do in tomorrow's highly automated society? Let's not forget that the level of education in countries like China is also getting quite high, competing with them is getting tougher.

And how will a Chinese Carpenter, Hairdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... compete with a EU Carpenter, Haitdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... fly over to get a hair cut? Ship your car over for Maintanance? Build house in China, disassemble and ship here? Who sets it up?
Lots of Jobs are inherently safe from competition, because the work has to be done locally.

Many estimations show that in the future there will be some demand for very highly educated specialists, but quite a big amount of traditional middle class jobs will be gone without anything that replaces them. I don't like the idea of a society divided between small rich elite and large poor majority, because then Europe will soon be no different from developing world.

and how exactly is your xenophobia going to help that? Aside of turning back globalization drastically increasing the pressure to use more automation. You are actively working to bring your own dystopia to come about faster....

best regards
Thomas

pvjin wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

And how will a Chinese Carpenter, Hairdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... compete with a EU Carpenter, Haitdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... fly over to get a hair cut? Ship your car over for Maintanance? Build house in China, disassemble and ship here? Who sets it up?
Lots of Jobs are inherently safe from competition, because the work has to be done locally.

Those jobs will be automated.

Automated Hairdresser? Automated Car Mechanic? One day, but those are still far away in the future... cooperative working of robots is still a new field and if you read yourself into SIL requirements, you find out rather quickly that automated hairdresser without people standing by is a long, long, long way off.....

tommy1808 wrote:

and how exactly is your xenophobia going to help that? Aside of turning back globalization drastically increasing the pressure to use more automation. You are actively working to bring your own dystopia to come about faster....

My "xenophobia" and support for protectionism is simply a way to say no to neoliberal globalists who don't give a damn about anything but getting themselves as much money as possible. It doesn't have to be that way, if protectionist policies started to rise in many enough countries the whole abusive system would soon collapse and something better could rise.

Closing Borders for labor helps neoliberals to play people off against each other. If people are free to go where the wages are higher, their System collapses. Closing borders also reduces competition. So they can pay you less and charge you more. You are their wet dream.

best regards
Thomas

pvjin wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

And how will a Chinese Carpenter, Hairdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... compete with a EU Carpenter, Haitdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... fly over to get a hair cut? Ship your car over for Maintanance? Build house in China, disassemble and ship here? Who sets it up?
Lots of Jobs are inherently safe from competition, because the work has to be done locally.

Those jobs will be automated.

tommy1808 wrote:

and how exactly is your xenophobia going to help that? Aside of turning back globalization drastically increasing the pressure to use more automation. You are actively working to bring your own dystopia to come about faster....

For us Europeans it hardly matters whether our jobs are automated or outsourced to China. Those jobs that can't be outsourced to China will be automated anyway the moment robots do it as well as humans and with lower costs.

My "xenophobia" and support for protectionism is simply a way to say no to neoliberal globalists who don't give a damn about anything but getting themselves as much money as possible. It doesn't have to be that way, if protectionist policies started to rise in many enough countries the whole abusive system would soon collapse and something better could rise.

You have the wrong solution to a real problem. You see this with all the populist out there. Protectionism and xenophobism won't help to combat neo-conservatism. It won't help to protect jobs against automation. Automation will happen, sooner rather than later. Adidas brought back some factories from China to Germany, but the German once were almost all automated. And that is a trend that will continue. New job will arise, old jobs will vanish. A standard workweek will consist of probably 32hours in 2025 and perhaps 28 in 2030. So jobs will be more evenly spread and people have more free time with the same output. For Europe people can work in healthcare, taking care of our growing population of elders. Marcron is talking about a basic income system, which you guys in Finland are experimenting with, so that might actually be introduced in France. That is also a way forward. So basically we indeed have to make a choice, Neo-conservatism is one way, more social liberal course is another. I strongly believe in the second. The social liberalism isn't opposed to competition and market forces and isn't opposed to foreigners. It is opposed to a strong man, you favor.

Dutchy wrote:

Automation will happen, sooner rather than later. Adidas brought back some factories from China to Germany, but the German once were almost all automated.

there are for real Mainboard, Server and Laptop Production lines in Augsburg (former Fujitsu-Siemens plant) that have been competitive with Mainland China production since they opened it. How? You don´t see many people there....
Automation will not happen, it is.... trying to stop that is about as futile as stopping gay marriage or people having access to birth control. Ride with it, it is the only way to post scarcity, which is the only way to get out of the capitalism death spiral, that doesn´t exactly work when it comes to distribution of wealth. That is everywhere. The last time US Workers have seen an effective pay raise was in 1942, ever since then wages declined.....

best regards
Thomas

Olddog wrote:

You may want to consider that you are acting like if these 0,5 % of Europeans living in the UK are an Everest to climb....

We currently have 1.064.000 open jobs in Germany, that is half the current EU labour force in the UK. JusT for perspective ...

Best regards
Thomas

Sure it will be disruptive if all the EU citizens are moving back to the mainland. But the EU will easily absorb these people. So it is basically a non-issue.