The amount of delusion is tragically patheti;;; and pathetically tragic, depending on how one feels.
Talk about a brainwashed population unable to formulate their own arguments, repeating ad nauseam the slogans of a few manipulative leaders and of course totally unable to reason or to provide proof of their logic.
Too late to wake up.... and sweet dreams, luvvy !

Olddog wrote:

Well you should remember that 70 % of the car made in the UK are for export.....

Didn't you hear, the UK economy is so strong that suddenly having 57% of the car exports facing Tarifs is a much smaller problem then Germany having Tarifs for 20% of theirs. ..

Best regards
Thomas

vc10 wrote:

Would I be correct in saying that most of Macron supporters were mostly city dwellers , whereas Penns supporters were from the country side, or even is the split north /south.

It looks like Le Pen had the most support in the north east. She won Aisne and Pas de Calais and Macron won all the other 99 départements. http://graphics.france24.com/results-se ... tion-2017/

(Even though the french presidential election is about winning the most votes and not the most départements, it shows the regional distribution of the votes.)

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Then he will also be saying bye bye to the Renault, Citroen and Pug cars France sells in the UK.

We'll see how it works out. Britain could have import taxes on all European cars, but that will mean that for the British Euro cars become more expensive and that cars produced in the UK will be more expensive in the EU, which will mean that most car manufacturers will leave the UK. So who will be the big winner in this? Or better whom stand to loose the most in that kind of thinking?

Well the EU does. Look how many french, germany, italian and spanish cars are sold in the EU each year. Compared to how many British cars are sold in the EU, it will be a lot higher. The EU's largest export market is the UK. The UK are also net importers from the EU. So its the EU's suicide call.

Please have a reality check. In your world the UK can ask for what it wants because they are (60m) are much more powerful than the EU (450m). Please explain how that works?

Bostrom wrote:

vc10 wrote:

Would I be correct in saying that most of Macron supporters were mostly city dwellers , whereas Penns supporters were from the country side, or even is the split north /south.

It looks like Le Pen had the most support in the north east. She won Aisne and Pas de Calais and Macron won all the other 99 départements. http://graphics.france24.com/results-se ... tion-2017/

(Even though the french presidential election is about winning the most votes and not the most départements, it shows the regional distribution of the votes.)

No real support fo her candidacy. In the Dutch press, there was an article that she will reform the Front National and even change the name. We will see what will happen with FN.

LAH1 wrote:

Aesma wrote:

No it just means that hope can win over an old country used to elect old leaders.

People here thought that when they elected the "young" Blair. I do so hope yours goes better than ours did.

What was so wrong with Blair, aside from the Iraq war ?

winterlight wrote:

Hollande has low approval ratings for several reasons, but the main one is that he didn't go far enough to please the left, while going too far for the right (a right radicalized by Sarkozy, so they were 100% against Hollande on day one). Without being able to explain what he was doing. With some symbolic blunders along the way.

Basically he was a centrist sold as a socialist.

Macron wants to do similar things but is announcing it beforehand, so far it's working.

Hillis wrote:

Looks like the French are a helluva lot smarter than many voters in the United States. Congratulations, France, on not giving into hatred and fear.

Yes because wanting a good job with fair taxation and secure borders is rooted in hatred and fear.

Pihero wrote:

The amount of delusion is tragically patheti;;; and pathetically tragic, depending on how one feels.
Talk about a brainwashed population unable to formulate their own arguments, repeating ad nauseam the slogans of a few manipulative leaders and of course totally unable to reason or to provide proof of their logic.
Too late to wake up.... and sweet dreams, luvvy !

Isn't that true of most people everywhere ?

I don't see Macron as a savior, but at the same time I fail to identify anyone in French politics (or even outside) I'd rather have as a leader. I agree with him even when he committed what was seen as blunders, like what he said in Algeria.

NIKV69 wrote:

Hillis wrote:

Looks like the French are a helluva lot smarter than many voters in the United States. Congratulations, France, on not giving into hatred and fear.

Yes because wanting a good job with fair taxation and secure borders is rooted in hatred and fear.

Since that is pretty much what everybody wants on this planet you can be reasonable sure that those who implement that in a fundamentalist way, like your great leader and GOP that just set of to kill more Americans than war and terrorism combined, in exchange for "fair" taxes for the rich, are in deed right wing fundamentalist....
Considering that not even Bernie Sanders is left wing on most of this planet, it is no surprise that you end up with a ruling party that uses biological weapons (=illness) against its own citizens. Not much difference between the Assad and the Trump Regime left since last week...

best regards
Thomas

NIKV69 wrote:

Yes because wanting a good job with fair taxation and secure borders is rooted in hatred and fear.

If you think you voted for a fair tax plan, I guess you are a billionaire ?

NIKV69 wrote:

Hillis wrote:

Looks like the French are a helluva lot smarter than many voters in the United States. Congratulations, France, on not giving into hatred and fear.

Yes because wanting a good job with fair taxation and secure borders is rooted in hatred and fear.

LePan wouldn't have given you those things, maybe and the is a Maybe with a capital M, secure borders, all the other things, she couldnot deliver to the French. Like all populist, they might get elected, but cannot deliver.

NIKV69 wrote:

Hillis wrote:

Looks like the French are a helluva lot smarter than many voters in the United States. Congratulations, France, on not giving into hatred and fear.

Yes because wanting a good job with fair taxation and secure borders is rooted in hatred and fear.

Protectionism doesn't provide jobs. Her policies would have killed 100 jobs for each 1 it would have artificially created.

Fair taxation doesn't mean much when everyone gets 30% poorer overnight with her promise to leave the euro. Add on top of that the wipeout of their savings (French people are big savers).

Aside from that most of her discourse is against foreigners, migrants and Islam, everything not French is the problem, so yes, hatred and fear is her platform.

Aesma wrote:

What was so wrong with Blair,

Indeed. This sentiment is the root of the rise of populism, I'm afraid.

People see mainstream politicians as corrupt and inefficient without much argumentation behind their conclusion.
People look at their societies and see only issues and problems, which the incessant mediatic coverage and their lack of exposure to any harsher form of society help make seem bigger than they are.

The fact is, European, and most western countries which find themselves flirting with populism have had it better for longer than any other societies on Earth ever before. I am not saying everything is perfect, nor that it can't be better, far from it.
But we now live longer, are wealthier, do not endure war, plagues or famine, have structures that help shelter us to an extent from the vagaries of life, etc. And all of this comes from the formation of stable and progressive democratic governments, often after brutal wars.

I believe this lack of perspective is making people believe that the situation of our countries is critical, and as such, can only be fixed by the radical proposals offered by the populists.
Of course, these extreme measures would be detrimental to a the relatively fragile equilibrium of our economies.

The other thing is that people are led to believe that a single politician can have a massive effect on a government/country. People now expect heroes, saviors. The reality of our democracies is that they're setup to be resilient to the blows of political extremism, even the 5th Republic of France which places quite a lot of power in the hand of its president compared to other similar democracies. Raising one politician on a golden pedestal can only end up in vain hope and broken promises.

Whoever expects a miracle from a politician is wrong. There are very few people who have managed to single-handedly change a country for the better over his/her tenure, and certainly not in a democracy.

Positive change is progressive and takes time, but raising fear and anger to garner interest in empty promises and dangerous ideas is quick and easy...
As the chinese say: a falling tree is louder than a growing forest.

France is so far safe from the threat of populism and head-in-the-sand politics, partly thanks to its resilient electoral system, but I'm afraid the appeal of radical politics there and elsewhere will keep rising.

Aesma wrote:

Protectionism doesn't provide jobs. Her policies would have killed 100 jobs for each 1 it would have artificially created.

So what should Europeans do? Accept the neoliberal policies which will ultimately result in far poorer and less happy European population in coming decades compared to what we have now?

Aesma wrote:

Aside from that most of her discourse is against foreigners, migrants and Islam, everything not French is the problem, so yes, hatred and fear is her platform.

At least she sees the problem that rise of Islamism and failed integration policies are causing. Macron will not do a single thing to fix the issues and they'll just keep growing worse.

Francoflier wrote:

The fact is, European, and most western countries which find themselves flirting with populism have had it better for longer than any other societies on Earth ever before. I am not saying everything is perfect, nor that it can't be better, far from it.
But we now live longer, are wealthier, do not endure war, plagues or famine, have structures that help shelter us to an extent from the vagaries of life, etc. And all of this comes from the formation of stable and progressive democratic governments, often after brutal wars.

The middle aged and old are wealthy, but the youth is actually getting poorer. It makes perfect sense for anyone in his/her 20's to vote for a change rather than status quo, as the status quo sucks for those who don't already have long careers and a lot of savings behind them. Employment is getting more and more difficult, social welfare is getting worse and so on. There are way less opportunities than some decades ago.

All in all, if current trends continue Europe will be much poorer, much more fragmented and much less safe in 50 years from now. Failures of the modern capitalist system are the main reason for this, however large scale migration from Islamic world further helps to fragment European societies and create tension.

Happy and relieved that France did not follow the shitshow in the UK, not to mention the mother of all clusterf**ks in the US.

Félicitations

It's not always you get exactly what you want but here, France has made a wise choice!!! Vive la France

"BOSTRUM " posting No 53-------- Thank you for that informative web site and her vote seem tobe scattered all over the country except for the North West where she seemed to have very little support

"FRANCOFLIER" posting No 64-----A very good posting, and for me anyway very informative.

One question I would like to ask, and that is when people talk about Le Pen they she has protectionist policy for France, which are not in the country's best interest, whereas Machron is all for the EU, but surely one of the founding principles of the EU is protectionist polices.

Not running the EU down just asking a question .

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

We'll see how it works out. Britain could have import taxes on all European cars, but that will mean that for the British Euro cars become more expensive and that cars produced in the UK will be more expensive in the EU, which will mean that most car manufacturers will leave the UK. So who will be the big winner in this? Or better whom stand to loose the most in that kind of thinking?

Well the EU does. Look how many french, germany, italian and spanish cars are sold in the EU each year. Compared to how many British cars are sold in the EU, it will be a lot higher. The EU's largest export market is the UK. The UK are also net importers from the EU. So its the EU's suicide call.

Please have a reality check. In your world the UK can ask for what it wants because they are (60m) are much more powerful than the EU (450m). Please explain how that works?

Perhaps have a reality check on the whole idea of the EU.

I never said that, It can't ask for what It wants but you pro EU crowd promote it that Britain has zero bargaining power.

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Well the EU does. Look how many french, germany, italian and spanish cars are sold in the EU each year. Compared to how many British cars are sold in the EU, it will be a lot higher. The EU's largest export market is the UK. The UK are also net importers from the EU. So its the EU's suicide call.

Please have a reality check. In your world the UK can ask for what it wants because they are (60m) are much more powerful than the EU (450m). Please explain how that works?

Perhaps have a reality check on the whole idea of the EU.

I never said that, It can't ask for what It wants but you pro EU crowd promote it that Britain has zero bargaining power.

Close to it, I would say. I think, like I said before, Britain has to decide what it wants, access to the EU internal market, but accept everything that goes with it (Norwegian model) or don't accept anything and stay out of the internal market. Why would the EU accept any other deal which is going to exceptional favor Britain? More so, than any other country outside the EU?

Aesma wrote :"I don't see Macron as a savior, but at the same time I fail to identify anyone in French politics (or even outside) I'd rather have as a leader. I agree with him even when he committed what was seen as blunders, like what he said in Algeria."
That's wisdom. The "providential man" is awfully rare. Mind you, there were some great men and I can only think of one : De Gaulle from 1940 to 1968.


Francoflier wrote :"Whoever expects a miracle from a politician is wrong. There are very few people who have managed to single-handedly change a country for the better over his/her tenure, and certainly not in a democracy."
In an ideal world, democracy should teach us to work hard to make it happen and then to keep it alive. Problem is people by sheer selfishness and laziness are quite happy to let the politicians trace their lives... and when they wake up, it's generally too late... They revolt and the whole cycle goes on and oin. All revolutions have been ' recuperated ' by the people already in power, i.e. the politicians.
Stay awake and stand up. (that's a title of a Bob Marley songs, IIRC )


pvjin wrote :"The middle aged and old are wealthy, but the youth is actually getting poorer. It makes perfect sense for anyone in his/her 20's to vote for a change rather than status quo,"
I see you've understood how the nazis got into power.
You've learned your lesson well but you'll find , at least in France quite a few people to oppose you.

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Please have a reality check. In your world the UK can ask for what it wants because they are (60m) are much more powerful than the EU (450m). Please explain how that works?

Perhaps have a reality check on the whole idea of the EU.

I never said that, It can't ask for what It wants but you pro EU crowd promote it that Britain has zero bargaining power.

Close to it, I would say. I think, like I said before, Britain has to decide what it wants, access to the EU internal market, but accept everything that goes with it (Norwegian model) or don't accept anything and stay out of the internal market. Why would the EU accept any other deal which is going to exceptional favor Britain? More so, than any other country outside the EU?

I would say Britain have more bargaining power than you think. Don't get me wrong the EU has more. There is way more EU citizens living in the UK than British citizens in the EU. The ammount of British tourists that visit Spain, Portugal and Greece is huge. I know we are talking about trade but these issues will be bargaining chips too. Putting any form of visa in or travel requirements will slice the throat of the economies of places like Tenerife, Zante and Madeira.

If Geert Wilders had suceeded and nexit had happened, would you still have such a hostile attitude to negotiations?

Pihero wrote:

You've learned your lesson well but you'll find , at least in France quite a few people to oppose you.

Yep, the greedy baby boomer generation wants to sustain its privilege as long as possible, but ultimately the change will come when the youth of the today enters middle-age with no money or future in current neoliberal system, and the boomers die of old age.

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Perhaps have a reality check on the whole idea of the EU.

I never said that, It can't ask for what It wants but you pro EU crowd promote it that Britain has zero bargaining power.

Close to it, I would say. I think, like I said before, Britain has to decide what it wants, access to the EU internal market, but accept everything that goes with it (Norwegian model) or don't accept anything and stay out of the internal market. Why would the EU accept any other deal which is going to exceptional favor Britain? More so, than any other country outside the EU?

I would say Britain have more bargaining power than you think. Don't get me wrong the EU has more. There is way more EU citizens living in the UK than British citizens in the EU. The ammount of British tourists that visit Spain, Portugal and Greece is huge. I know we are talking about trade but these issues will be bargaining chips too. Putting any form of visa in or travel requirements will slice the throat of the economies of places like Tenerife, Zante and Madeira.

If Geert Wilders had suceeded and nexit had happened, would you still have such a hostile attitude to negotiations?

Geert Wilders only has 20 seats of the 76 required, in Dutch parliament, no other party, except some really small parties are in favor of a Nexit. But to answer your question, I would be quite disappointed if there was a Nexit, and after a year of five, I might think about the consequences

But I think you have me all wrong, I would like Britain to have the kind of deal Norway has, nice and cozy . Lots of trade, the barriers to the minimum. Furthermore, I would like the EU realize that the free flow of people only works to a certain degree and that this only works for the upper levels of the job marked., not for the bottom of it. So the Brexit is a good time to look at this and reintroduce a working visa for some groups and free market for certain other levels. Britain could join that scheme as well because one of the reasons - as I understand it - the influx of eastern Europeans.

As far as the bargaining power goes, British tourist could still go to the holiday destinations, why not? Visa requirement are something of the country which is receiving the tourist, or the EU, that isn't in the power of the UK. UK could introduce visa requirements for EU citizens, but that will hurt the UK too and might not trikker the same reaction in the EU. So I would say not that strong. As for EU citizens living in the UK vs. UK citizens living in the EU,
- UK in EU: 1,2million
- EU in UK: 3,3million

So yes, there seems to be a surplus of EU citizens in the UK, so on the face of it, it seems that Britain has a bargaining chip here. But does it really? Is it in British best interest to expel the 3,3m and get the 1,2m back? As May already offered to give the 3,3m a permanent residences ship after the Brexit, if the EU does the same for UK citizens, it doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

Like I said, I honestly hope there will be a fair deal and hopefully as close to the EU as possible, but since Prime Minister May has advocated a hard Brexit, which will be the ultimate loose - loose, you can't expect me to be to thrilled by this. Like I said before and will be repeating, the choice is yours, Britain, lots of options to chose from, but don't expect a special treatment (but no punishment either, if it were up to me). So in this, I concur with the prime ministers of Denmark, Ireland, and The Netherlands: http://www.politico.eu/article/northern ... therlands/
You see that Britain still have friends across the sea. But the attitude in Westminster has to change as well. Going after a hard Brexit will harden the stand within the EU as well, quite understandable, since there is nothing to negotiate anymore.

But at the moment, the choice is back to the British, it is up to you to choose in the upcoming election what you want. Conservatives or more EU orientated Labour or more to the extreme Liberal Democrats. Perhaps after the elections, things will calm down and the real negotiations can begin.

Hope you understand that it feels like you guys took of my arm, without asking me, and it hurts, I love the Birtish

pvjin wrote:

Pihero wrote:

You've learned your lesson well but you'll find , at least in France quite a few people to oppose you.

Yep, the greedy baby boomer generation wants to sustain its privilege as long as possible, but ultimately the change will come when the youth of the today enters middle-age with no money or future in current neoliberal system, and the boomers die of old age.

Whoeps, you missed something in the quote there, let me help you: "I see you've understood how the nazis got into power. You've learned your lesson well but you'll find , at least in France quite a few people to oppose you."



But ok, at least you put the blame with the right group, people whom have too much priveledges which cost society too much whereby the younger generation pays double for. That needs to change, I agree with you.

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Close to it, I would say. I think, like I said before, Britain has to decide what it wants, access to the EU internal market, but accept everything that goes with it (Norwegian model) or don't accept anything and stay out of the internal market. Why would the EU accept any other deal which is going to exceptional favor Britain? More so, than any other country outside the EU?

I would say Britain have more bargaining power than you think. Don't get me wrong the EU has more. There is way more EU citizens living in the UK than British citizens in the EU. The ammount of British tourists that visit Spain, Portugal and Greece is huge. I know we are talking about trade but these issues will be bargaining chips too. Putting any form of visa in or travel requirements will slice the throat of the economies of places like Tenerife, Zante and Madeira.

If Geert Wilders had suceeded and nexit had happened, would you still have such a hostile attitude to negotiations?

Geert Wilders only has 20 seats of the 76 required, in Dutch parliament, no other party, except some really small parties are in favor of a Nexit. But to answer your question, I would be quite disappointed if there was a Nexit, and after a year of five, I might think about the consequences

But I think you have me all wrong, I would like Britain to have the kind of deal Norway has, nice and cozy . Lots of trade, the barriers to the minimum. Furthermore, I would like the EU realize that the free flow of people only works to a certain degree and that this only works for the upper levels of the job marked., not for the bottom of it. So the Brexit is a good time to look at this and reintroduce a working visa for some groups and free market for certain other levels. Britain could join that scheme as well because one of the reasons - as I understand it - the influx of eastern Europeans.

As far as the bargaining power goes, British tourist could still go to the holiday destinations, why not? Visa requirement are something of the country which is receiving the tourist, or the EU, that isn't in the power of the UK. UK could introduce visa requirements for EU citizens, but that will hurt the UK too and might not trikker the same reaction in the EU. So I would say not that strong. As for EU citizens living in the UK vs. UK citizens living in the EU,
- UK in EU: 1,2million
- EU in UK: 3,3million

So yes, there seems to be a surplus of EU citizens in the UK, so on the face of it, it seems that Britain has a bargaining chip here. But does it really? Is it in British best interest to expel the 3,3m and get the 1,2m back? As May already offered to give the 3,3m a permanent residences ship after the Brexit, if the EU does the same for UK citizens, it doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

Like I said, I honestly hope there will be a fair deal and hopefully as close to the EU as possible, but since Prime Minister May has advocated a hard Brexit, which will be the ultimate loose - loose, you can't expect me to be to thrilled by this. Like I said before and will be repeating, the choice is yours, Britain, lots of options to chose from, but don't expect a special treatment (but no punishment either, if it were up to me). So in this, I concur with the prime ministers of Denmark, Ireland, and The Netherlands: http://www.politico.eu/article/northern ... therlands/
You see that Britain still have friends across the sea. But the attitude in Westminster has to change as well. Going after a hard Brexit will harden the stand within the EU as well, quite understandable, since there is nothing to negotiate anymore.

But at the moment, the choice is back to the British, it is up to you to choose in the upcoming election what you want. Conservatives or more EU orientated Labour or more to the extreme Liberal Democrats. Perhaps after the elections, things will calm down and the real negotiations can begin.

Hope you understand that it feels like you guys took of my arm, without asking me, and it hurts, I love the Birtish

Well at least you are being decent about it. Its only since brexit I have realised how involved the rest of the world can be in our politics. I recently lived in New Zealand and they knew all about it. Seems many non UKers on this forum know the exact details too.

pvjin wrote:

So what should Europeans do? Accept the neoliberal policies which will ultimately result in far poorer and less happy European population in coming decades compared to what we have now?

Having top notch education and training to keep an edge over the competition. Airbus doesn't sell planes thanks to protectionism, it sells them because they're competitive.

Many Le Pen voters don't understand or accept this. Some of them are middle aged and I can understand their position, but young people have no excuse, you can get a good education for free in France, and there are plenty of ways to get it, even after having dropped out.

Dutchy wrote:

But I think you have me all wrong, I would like Britain to have the kind of deal Norway has, nice and cozy . Lots of trade, the barriers to the minimum. Furthermore, I would like the EU realize that the free flow of people only works to a certain degree and that this only works for the upper levels of the job marked., not for the bottom of it.

It works on all levels and is beneficial to almost everyone. Freedom of movement is the reason why we can get products and services cheap, while nations like Irland or Portugal are not low wage hellholes anymore.

As far as the bargaining power goes, British tourist could still go to the holiday destinations, why not?

They will still go where the price leads them. Just one look at floor plans of current and historic UK charter flights tell you that it is a highly price sensitive market. If Spain remains relatively cheap and easy to get to, geography doesn´t change, they will still go to Spain
.

Visa requirement are something of the country which is receiving the tourist, or the EU, that isn't in the power of the UK. UK could introduce visa requirements for EU citizens, but that will hurt the UK too and might not trikker the same reaction in the EU. So I would say not that strong. As for EU citizens living in the UK vs. UK citizens living in the EU,
- UK in EU: 1,2million
- EU in UK: 3,3million

So yes, there seems to be a surplus of EU citizens in the UK, so on the face of it, it seems that Britain has a bargaining chip here. But does it really? Is it in British best interest to expel the 3,3m and get the 1,2m back? As May already offered to give the 3,3m a permanent residences ship after the Brexit, if the EU does the same for UK citizens, it doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

More importantly, they are 7% of the total UK Labour force, they need them to stay.

But at the moment, the choice is back to the British, it is up to you to choose in the upcoming election what you want. Conservatives or more EU orientated Labour or more to the extreme Liberal Democrats. Perhaps after the elections, things will calm down and the real negotiations can begin.

The options are quite well defined on the EU side, the UK just needs to pick one and start negotiate the details with the EU.

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

But I think you have me all wrong, I would like Britain to have the kind of deal Norway has, nice and cozy . Lots of trade, the barriers to the minimum. Furthermore, I would like the EU realize that the free flow of people only works to a certain degree and that this only works for the upper levels of the job marked., not for the bottom of it.

It works on all levels and is beneficial to almost everyone. Freedom of movement is the reason why we can get products and services cheap, while nations like Irland or Portugal are not low wage hellholes anymore.

Thomas, don't close your eyes for what is happening in the job market. People do get hurt by this and prices do go down. Don't exactly know what is going on within Germany at the moment, but in The Netherlands - and this is not all due to Eastern Europeans coming over here, but mostly because of government policy - the lower income brackets do suffer from the influx of labor. Let me give you an example, the A2 tunnel, government project, the lowest bidder got it, it was way more of course than 4,5m, so European companies got to compete. I thought a Portugal firm got it, with employees registered in Ireland and so on, people working there got paid far less than would be possible for Dutch firms, while doing this in The Netherlands. So in a real sense, the Dutch workers got screwed on wages. And if Europe wants to do something for its citizens, then you have to do something about this, same work, same wages in order for ordinary workers not to compete on this. Easily done for work that is place-restricted, just make it compulsory to follow the same wages as in the host country. A simple step, but will put an end to all these kind of constructions. We are an aviation website, so you see what is being done by Ryanair or Norwegian, so not just the lower wage job suffers.

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

I would say Britain have more bargaining power than you think. Don't get me wrong the EU has more. There is way more EU citizens living in the UK than British citizens in the EU. The ammount of British tourists that visit Spain, Portugal and Greece is huge. I know we are talking about trade but these issues will be bargaining chips too. Putting any form of visa in or travel requirements will slice the throat of the economies of places like Tenerife, Zante and Madeira.

If Geert Wilders had suceeded and nexit had happened, would you still have such a hostile attitude to negotiations?

Geert Wilders only has 20 seats of the 76 required, in Dutch parliament, no other party, except some really small parties are in favor of a Nexit. But to answer your question, I would be quite disappointed if there was a Nexit, and after a year of five, I might think about the consequences

But I think you have me all wrong, I would like Britain to have the kind of deal Norway has, nice and cozy . Lots of trade, the barriers to the minimum. Furthermore, I would like the EU realize that the free flow of people only works to a certain degree and that this only works for the upper levels of the job marked., not for the bottom of it. So the Brexit is a good time to look at this and reintroduce a working visa for some groups and free market for certain other levels. Britain could join that scheme as well because one of the reasons - as I understand it - the influx of eastern Europeans.

As far as the bargaining power goes, British tourist could still go to the holiday destinations, why not? Visa requirement are something of the country which is receiving the tourist, or the EU, that isn't in the power of the UK. UK could introduce visa requirements for EU citizens, but that will hurt the UK too and might not trikker the same reaction in the EU. So I would say not that strong. As for EU citizens living in the UK vs. UK citizens living in the EU,
- UK in EU: 1,2million
- EU in UK: 3,3million

So yes, there seems to be a surplus of EU citizens in the UK, so on the face of it, it seems that Britain has a bargaining chip here. But does it really? Is it in British best interest to expel the 3,3m and get the 1,2m back? As May already offered to give the 3,3m a permanent residences ship after the Brexit, if the EU does the same for UK citizens, it doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

Like I said, I honestly hope there will be a fair deal and hopefully as close to the EU as possible, but since Prime Minister May has advocated a hard Brexit, which will be the ultimate loose - loose, you can't expect me to be to thrilled by this. Like I said before and will be repeating, the choice is yours, Britain, lots of options to chose from, but don't expect a special treatment (but no punishment either, if it were up to me). So in this, I concur with the prime ministers of Denmark, Ireland, and The Netherlands: http://www.politico.eu/article/northern ... therlands/
You see that Britain still have friends across the sea. But the attitude in Westminster has to change as well. Going after a hard Brexit will harden the stand within the EU as well, quite understandable, since there is nothing to negotiate anymore.

But at the moment, the choice is back to the British, it is up to you to choose in the upcoming election what you want. Conservatives or more EU orientated Labour or more to the extreme Liberal Democrats. Perhaps after the elections, things will calm down and the real negotiations can begin.

Hope you understand that it feels like you guys took of my arm, without asking me, and it hurts, I love the Birtish

Well at least you are being decent about it. Its only since brexit I have realised how involved the rest of the world can be in our politics. I recently lived in New Zealand and they knew all about it. Seems many non UKers on this forum know the exact details too.

Sure, the world is far more interconnected and with the Brexit, it isn't just your politics, EU-27 do feel the consequences of it what you decide to do.

Dutchy wrote:

Easily done for work that is place-restricted, just make it compulsory to follow the same wages as in the host country.

Exactly. No need to restrict movement of people in any way, just make sure wage dumping isn´t possible, minimum wage also helps.

We are an aviation website, so you see what is being done by Ryanair or Norwegian, so not just the lower wage job suffers.

They made Lufthansa a much better airline, with significantly more friendly staff and even drink and snack are back on short haul flying. The subsidy grabbing, that was a problem, not the business modell in itself.

You and i live and work in Europe, high taxing, relatively high wages, highly bureaucratic, high social security costs.... i don´t know what business you are in, but i am in IT, i have to compete with Chinese, Vietnamese, Taiwanese and so on countrymen every day i go to work. We have to compete a lot harder every day than just Irish vs. NL/German wages/labor law/regulations. Competition is good.

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Easily done for work that is place-restricted, just make it compulsory to follow the same wages as in the host country.

Exactly. No need to restrict movement of people in any way, just make sure wage dumping isn´t possible, minimum wage also helps.

We are an aviation website, so you see what is being done by Ryanair or Norwegian, so not just the lower wage job suffers.

They made Lufthansa a much better airline, with significantly more friendly staff and even drink and snack are back on short haul flying. The subsidy grabbing, that was a problem, not the business modell in itself.

You and i live and work in Europe, high taxing, relatively high wages, highly bureaucratic, high social security costs.... i don´t know what business you are in, but i am in IT, i have to compete with Chinese, Vietnamese, Taiwanese and so on countrymen every day i go to work. We have to compete a lot harder every day than just Irish vs. NL/German wages/labor law/regulations. Competition is good.

best regards
Thomas

I am in construction / building, I am a developer, so far less competition from the outside world

I believe in competition, but not in the subject of wages. Compete on your product, compete on productivity etc. And sure, Ryanair and Norwegian forced legacy carriers to rethink their business models. That is a good thing, but the way Ryanair and to a lesser extent, Norwegian treats its employees is something which should not be possible. Last elections in The Netherlands, some left parties said, flexible should be more expensive than secure jobs for the employer. I think he was right, nowadays flexible is less expensive for an employer and the employees suffer from this, flex jobs all around. But that is something the countries have to deal with, not the EU. And to bring it back to the content of this thread, in France it is the same. They need to be more competitive and more flexible. Yesterday the first marches were in Paris against the upcoming president. I don't think he meant this kind of marches with his slogan, En Marche . The Denish model is kind of neat, secure jobs are less secure, but if you get fired than the unemployment benefits are high, 90% of what you made and long, but you need to get re-trained. That model works and gives the businesses the flexibility that they need, without the employees suffering in their rights to much. So a balanced system I would say.

Emmanuel Macron has talked about changing the Bolkestein Directive so that all parts of the salary are the same for all workers. Currently EU workers must be paid the local minimum wage, but the social contributions are the ones from their country of origin. Also, local minimum wage might be lower or much lower than the salary paid for the same work to local people.

Also, clamping down on abuse must be made easier. The ECJ just ruled that French work inspectors couldn't cancel the working authorization of foreign workers because the authorization was not a French document so they had no authority. That's ridiculous, if someone is working in France then French work inspectors must have authority. Make them EU work inspectors if need be.

In my company we have many foreigners and I think even with these changes it wouldn't alter the situation much, because not enough French people want to do hard work (my company is in construction, mainly large buildings and infrastructure, tunnels etc.), but at least there would be no excuses for them to vote that way. The company has its own school and will take pretty much any willing candidate.

Aesma wrote:

Emmanuel Macron has talked about changing the Bolkestein Directive so that all parts of the salary are the same for all workers.

Yes, that would solve most problems.

Also, clamping down on abuse must be made easier. The ECJ just ruled that French work inspectors couldn't cancel the working authorization of foreign workers because the authorization was not a French document so they had no authority. That's ridiculous, if someone is working in France then French work inspectors must have authority. Make them EU work inspectors if need be.

I don´t see the problem, drive to the employer/principal, arrest them, give them a hefty fine and expropriate their business if they get caught again. You don´t accidentally employ anyone below legal standards, you do that on purpose. More important than fines: put them in Jail. Not on parole, really in Jail, doesn´t even have to be long. No need to go after the workers. Quite the opposite, give them a quick lesson in what they are entitled to get.

best regards
Thomas

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Perhaps have a reality check on the whole idea of the EU.

I never said that, It can't ask for what It wants but you pro EU crowd promote it that Britain has zero bargaining power.

Close to it, I would say. I think, like I said before, Britain has to decide what it wants, access to the EU internal market, but accept everything that goes with it (Norwegian model) or don't accept anything and stay out of the internal market. Why would the EU accept any other deal which is going to exceptional favor Britain? More so, than any other country outside the EU?

I would say Britain have more bargaining power than you think. Don't get me wrong the EU has more. There is way more EU citizens living in the UK than British citizens in the EU. The ammount of British tourists that visit Spain, Portugal and Greece is huge. I know we are talking about trade but these issues will be bargaining chips too. Putting any form of visa in or travel requirements will slice the throat of the economies of places like Tenerife, Zante and Madeira.

It's not just about the numbers, it's about the kind of residents you get.

A disproportionate number of British expats in the continent are elderly retirees which on one hand boosts the local economy but on the other hand strain health and other social services. EU nationals in the UK are largely of working age, and actually generating tax receipts for the British economy.

For the sake of argument let's do a straight swap. I'm sure the continental economy is better prepared to handle young, working people than the already strained NHS and other social services is ready to deal with an influx of elderly people with health and other social issues.

For once, they will have to source these 3 million workers from elsewhere: India? North Africa? the Caribbean? do you think the average Brexit voter would swap Poles for Pakistanis or Jamaicans?

tommy1808 wrote:

Aesma wrote:

Emmanuel Macron has talked about changing the Bolkestein Directive so that all parts of the salary are the same for all workers.

Yes, that would solve most problems.

Also, clamping down on abuse must be made easier. The ECJ just ruled that French work inspectors couldn't cancel the working authorization of foreign workers because the authorization was not a French document so they had no authority. That's ridiculous, if someone is working in France then French work inspectors must have authority. Make them EU work inspectors if need be.

I don´t see the problem, drive to the employer/principal, arrest them, give them a hefty fine and expropriate their business if they get caught again. You don´t accidentally employ anyone below legal standards, you do that on purpose. More important than fines: put them in Jail. Not on parole, really in Jail, doesn´t even have to be long. No need to go after the workers. Quite the opposite, give them a quick lesson in what they are entitled to get.

best regards
Thomas

Exactly and thereby showing that the EU will work for everyone.

Aesma wrote:

Having top notch education and training to keep an edge over the competition. Airbus doesn't sell planes thanks to protectionism, it sells them because they're competitive.

Many Le Pen voters don't understand or accept this. Some of them are middle aged and I can understand their position, but young people have no excuse, you can get a good education for free in France, and there are plenty of ways to get it, even after having dropped out.

A large portion of master's degrees out there are already useless, not everybody can be a top scientist, doctor or whatever. What should the rest do in tomorrow's highly automated society? Let's not forget that the level of education in countries like China is also getting quite high, competing with them is getting tougher.

Many estimations show that in the future there will be some demand for very highly educated specialists, but quite a big amount of traditional middle class jobs will be gone without anything that replaces them. I don't like the idea of a society divided between small rich elite and large poor majority, because then Europe will soon be no different from developing world.

pvjin wrote:

A large portion of master's degrees out there are already useless, not everybody can be a top scientist, doctor or whatever. What should the rest do in tomorrow's highly automated society? Let's not forget that the level of education in countries like China is also getting quite high, competing with them is getting tougher.

And how will a Chinese Carpenter, Hairdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... compete with a EU Carpenter, Haitdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... fly over to get a hair cut? Ship your car over for Maintanance? Build house in China, disassemble and ship here? Who sets it up?
Lots of Jobs are inherently safe from competition, because the work has to be done locally.

Many estimations show that in the future there will be some demand for very highly educated specialists, but quite a big amount of traditional middle class jobs will be gone without anything that replaces them. I don't like the idea of a society divided between small rich elite and large poor majority, because then Europe will soon be no different from developing world.

and how exactly is your xenophobia going to help that? Aside of turning back globalization drastically increasing the pressure to use more automation. You are actively working to bring your own dystopia to come about faster....

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

And how will a Chinese Carpenter, Hairdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... compete with a EU Carpenter, Haitdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... fly over to get a hair cut? Ship your car over for Maintanance? Build house in China, disassemble and ship here? Who sets it up?
Lots of Jobs are inherently safe from competition, because the work has to be done locally.

Those jobs will be automated.

tommy1808 wrote:

and how exactly is your xenophobia going to help that? Aside of turning back globalization drastically increasing the pressure to use more automation. You are actively working to bring your own dystopia to come about faster....

For us Europeans it hardly matters whether our jobs are automated or outsourced to China. Those jobs that can't be outsourced to China will be automated anyway the moment robots do it as well as humans and with lower costs.

My "xenophobia" and support for protectionism is simply a way to say no to neoliberal globalists who don't give a damn about anything but getting themselves as much money as possible. It doesn't have to be that way, if protectionist policies started to rise in many enough countries the whole abusive system would soon collapse and something better could rise.

pvjin wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

And how will a Chinese Carpenter, Hairdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... compete with a EU Carpenter, Haitdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... fly over to get a hair cut? Ship your car over for Maintanance? Build house in China, disassemble and ship here? Who sets it up?
Lots of Jobs are inherently safe from competition, because the work has to be done locally.

Those jobs will be automated.

Automated Hairdresser? Automated Car Mechanic? One day, but those are still far away in the future... cooperative working of robots is still a new field and if you read yourself into SIL requirements, you find out rather quickly that automated hairdresser without people standing by is a long, long, long way off.....

tommy1808 wrote:

and how exactly is your xenophobia going to help that? Aside of turning back globalization drastically increasing the pressure to use more automation. You are actively working to bring your own dystopia to come about faster....

My "xenophobia" and support for protectionism is simply a way to say no to neoliberal globalists who don't give a damn about anything but getting themselves as much money as possible. It doesn't have to be that way, if protectionist policies started to rise in many enough countries the whole abusive system would soon collapse and something better could rise.

Closing Borders for labor helps neoliberals to play people off against each other. If people are free to go where the wages are higher, their System collapses. Closing borders also reduces competition. So they can pay you less and charge you more. You are their wet dream.

best regards
Thomas

pvjin wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

And how will a Chinese Carpenter, Hairdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... compete with a EU Carpenter, Haitdressers, Car Mechanic, ... ,..... fly over to get a hair cut? Ship your car over for Maintanance? Build house in China, disassemble and ship here? Who sets it up?
Lots of Jobs are inherently safe from competition, because the work has to be done locally.

Those jobs will be automated.

tommy1808 wrote:

and how exactly is your xenophobia going to help that? Aside of turning back globalization drastically increasing the pressure to use more automation. You are actively working to bring your own dystopia to come about faster....

For us Europeans it hardly matters whether our jobs are automated or outsourced to China. Those jobs that can't be outsourced to China will be automated anyway the moment robots do it as well as humans and with lower costs.

My "xenophobia" and support for protectionism is simply a way to say no to neoliberal globalists who don't give a damn about anything but getting themselves as much money as possible. It doesn't have to be that way, if protectionist policies started to rise in many enough countries the whole abusive system would soon collapse and something better could rise.

You have the wrong solution to a real problem. You see this with all the populist out there. Protectionism and xenophobism won't help to combat neo-conservatism. It won't help to protect jobs against automation. Automation will happen, sooner rather than later. Adidas brought back some factories from China to Germany, but the German once were almost all automated. And that is a trend that will continue. New job will arise, old jobs will vanish. A standard workweek will consist of probably 32hours in 2025 and perhaps 28 in 2030. So jobs will be more evenly spread and people have more free time with the same output. For Europe people can work in healthcare, taking care of our growing population of elders. Marcron is talking about a basic income system, which you guys in Finland are experimenting with, so that might actually be introduced in France. That is also a way forward. So basically we indeed have to make a choice, Neo-conservatism is one way, more social liberal course is another. I strongly believe in the second. The social liberalism isn't opposed to competition and market forces and isn't opposed to foreigners. It is opposed to a strong man, you favor.

I agree that long term there will be less jobs and a new system will have to be implemented. I have no problem with this, I can enjoy life without work, as long as I get the things I need to live. Robots are like slaves without the downsides. As long as they don't become "aware", that is.

However that time is not now and there is no reason for France to have a much higher unemployment than Germany. All figures show that a diploma nets you a job much more easily than no diploma, even useless ones.

My young sister has a master's in "change management", and she's in high demand. Her work precisely deals with such changes, like insurance employees reading letters from customers being replaced by a machine (her first project).

Dutchy wrote:

Automation will happen, sooner rather than later. Adidas brought back some factories from China to Germany, but the German once were almost all automated.

there are for real Mainboard, Server and Laptop Production lines in Augsburg (former Fujitsu-Siemens plant) that have been competitive with Mainland China production since they opened it. How? You don´t see many people there....
Automation will not happen, it is.... trying to stop that is about as futile as stopping gay marriage or people having access to birth control. Ride with it, it is the only way to post scarcity, which is the only way to get out of the capitalism death spiral, that doesn´t exactly work when it comes to distribution of wealth. That is everywhere. The last time US Workers have seen an effective pay raise was in 1942, ever since then wages declined.....

best regards
Thomas

JJJ wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

It's not just about the numbers, it's about the kind of residents you get.

A disproportionate number of British expats in the continent are elderly retirees which on one hand boosts the local economy but on the other hand strain health and other social services. EU nationals in the UK are largely of working age, and actually generating tax receipts for the British economy.

For the sake of argument let's do a straight swap. I'm sure the continental economy is better prepared to handle young, working people than the already strained NHS and other social services is ready to deal with an influx of elderly people with health and other social issues.

For once, they will have to source these 3 million workers from elsewhere: India? North Africa? the Caribbean? do you think the average Brexit voter would swap Poles for Pakistanis or Jamaicans?

Although you may want to stop and wonder why those 3 million came to the UK in the first place and whether the jobs they can return to in the EU are 1 as well paid, 2 there in the first place. If they are then why did they choose to move? As for the UK expat retirees, they probably provide more to the internal market where they are with their spending power than they ever take out in health fees.

JJJ wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

It's not just about the numbers, it's about the kind of residents you get.

A disproportionate number of British expats in the continent are elderly retirees which on one hand boosts the local economy but on the other hand strain health and other social services. EU nationals in the UK are largely of working age, and actually generating tax receipts for the British economy.

For the sake of argument let's do a straight swap. I'm sure the continental economy is better prepared to handle young, working people than the already strained NHS and other social services is ready to deal with an influx of elderly people with health and other social issues.

For once, they will have to source these 3 million workers from elsewhere: India? North Africa? the Caribbean? do you think the average Brexit voter would swap Poles for Pakistanis or Jamaicans?

Although you may want to stop and wonder why those 3 million came to the UK in the first place and whether the jobs they can return to in the EU are 1 as well paid, 2 there in the first place. If they are then why did they choose to move? As for the UK expat retirees, they probably provide more to the internal market where they are with their spending power than they ever take out in health fees.

You may want to consider that you are acting like if these 0,5 % of Europeans living in the UK are an Everest to climb....

Olddog wrote:

You may want to consider that you are acting like if these 0,5 % of Europeans living in the UK are an Everest to climb....

We currently have 1.064.000 open jobs in Germany, that is half the current EU labour force in the UK. JusT for perspective ...

Best regards
Thomas

LAH1 wrote:

JJJ wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

Although you may want to stop and wonder why those 3 million came to the UK in the first place and whether the jobs they can return to in the EU are 1 as well paid, 2 there in the first place. If they are then why did they choose to move? As for the UK expat retirees, they probably provide more to the internal market where they are with their spending power than they ever take out in health fees.

This is a few years old, but the situation still hasn't been solved:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/200 ... rism-spain

The Spanish health ministry complains that they don't get even 50% of the cost through the EU compensation system, because a lot of residents do not register properly and instead use temporary stay health cards (this is not limited to British, though, Germans, Belgians, etc. are known to use the same method).

And they'd better stay here though, because they may as well be refused care back in the UK.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... Spain.html

Those EU nationals of working age can find work in Germany, the Netherlands, etc. Even Poland and other Eastern European countries are now experiencing labour shortages. Sure conditions might not be as good as those in the UK, but there are jobs to be taken, and the Polish economy will benefit from that. Something like 1 million Ukrainians are now working in Poland, legally or informally.

Sure it will be disruptive if all the EU citizens are moving back to the mainland. But the EU will easily absorb these people. So it is basically a non-issue.

None of the above really answers the question why if there are so many decent jobs in Poland/Germany etc we have 3 million workers here.