UltimoTiger777
Posts: 388
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 5:19 pm

Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:49 am

Eyad89 wrote:
To be honest, I don't think everyone has the right to vote when it comes to referendums (unlike elections, where everyone should vote). Many people make their decisions based on emotions, why should their uncontrolled emotions determine my life?


Ahhh because nobody who took part in a normal election ever fell prey to their emotions did they?

Eyad89 wrote:
If the elected individual is unfit for any reason, then that can be easily reversed by simply waiting until his/her term ends or by removing him/her from office.


It took 13 years to remove New Labour from office and the damage done will probably never be reversed fully. But it's OK, at least all those people who voted them in in 1997 were all super rational and TOTALLY NOT VOTING ON EMOTIONAL INSTINCT.

I'm rolling my eyes so hard here I'm at risk of damaging them.
 
Bongodog1964
Posts: 3451
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:34 am

JJJ wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
JJJ wrote:

There will be a second referendum when the British economy starts to noticeably lag behind, is again the sick man of Europe, etc.

The UK did not join the EEC because they believed in what it meant, only because their economy was a basket case and the EFTA had been a failure.

Image
That's per capita PPP GDP UK vs an average of the original EU6 (EU5 is the same minus Luxembourg, because it skews the numers somehow).


Could you explain the numbers on the vertical scale? I don't know what I am looking at here.


% difference vs the average per capita of the other countries.

The UK came out of the post-war as much as 50% richer per capita, but the continent steadily gained ground until entry into the EEC where once again successful reforms and a new market (with a bit of North Sea oil help) put them back up.

Those reforms aligned the UK economy to the continent which is what the UK wants to cut now.


Of course growth within the EU area was far better than the UK in the 1950's and 60's, they had started from nothing in 1945, meanwhile the UK was paying the price of stretching its own economy to win a war, plus the costs of dismantling an empire. We also had the legacy of hideously over manned heavy industries. Germany restarted their steel, coal etc with new plant via the Marshall Plan, we limped on with muscles instead of machines.
 
JJJ
Posts: 2883
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:03 am

Bongodog1964 wrote:

Of course growth within the EU area was far better than the UK in the 1950's and 60's, they had started from nothing in 1945, meanwhile the UK was paying the price of stretching its own economy to win a war, plus the costs of dismantling an empire. We also had the legacy of hideously over manned heavy industries. Germany restarted their steel, coal etc with new plant via the Marshall Plan, we limped on with muscles instead of machines.


I've heard the Marshall plan thing before, and it turns out that the UK received almost 3 times the payments under the Marshall plan than W.Germany.

Image

You can pour money at an economy and it won't do anything unless it's spent right. The UK was still playing Empire back then in India, Malaya, the Mau Mau rebellion, Suez, Iraq.... very much like France, just on a larger scale. The economic re-orientation of a Commonwealth-centric quasi-imperial economy to an Euro-centric model is what's made the UK the modern, advanced service economy it is now.

Back in the late 40s UK top 3 export markets were Australia, South Africa and India. Right now those 3 markets account for barely 3% of exports.
 
Eyad89
Posts: 355
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:33 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:

Ahhh because nobody who took part in a normal election ever fell prey to their emotions did they?


It took 13 years to remove New Labour from office and the damage done will probably never be reversed fully. But it's OK, at least all those people who voted them in in 1997 were all super rational and TOTALLY NOT VOTING ON EMOTIONAL INSTINCT.

I'm rolling my eyes so hard here I'm at risk of damaging them.


Where did I ever say that people don't get carried away by emotions when voting for elections? Just look at the guy sitting in the white house! Voting for a person that can't decide on everything without a majority of votes isn't the same as voting for specific proposals/decisions.

If I thought Trump is completely unfit, I would be saved by the fact that he's leaving by 2020. The impact of him winning the election isn't as lasting as the impact of Brexit. This presidential election system is the best thing we have right now, so we should respect it, and at times when it gets frustrating, we just put up with it until the term ends. On the other hand, leaving the EU is pretty much one way forward. There is no going back. This decision should be very carefully made IMO.


Allow me to rephrase my question, to what extent is it okay to make decisions based on a public vote? Is it okay to decide on going to war based on a public vote? Is it okay to manage the climate change policies based on a public vote? the list goes on. If you think the answer is no for any of those questions, then why can't we say the same thing about Brexit?

Just my 2 cent.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:34 pm

mmo wrote:
The UK never had any leverage at all! Perhaps I am wrong, but I would love to hear where you think the UK would have any leverage, especially with Boris as the PM and Farage as the negotiator! If you ever wanted two self serving politicians in power you just named the "dream team" with those two.

In my opinion, the leavers wanted to leave and explore the world outside of the fully integrated EU, if that is / was the case why do they need leverage? The people gave them the right to leave via the referendum and Article 50 was the means the EU set up to accomplish.
All the leverage talk is about the Remainers who are at the heart of the Government including both houses, civil service and business houses who are opposed to the leave doing all they can to remain in the EU. One does not need leverage to leave. The only leverage the UK had to Remain is their financial contribution, since they have not left or set up a competitive trade and business environment outside of the EU, they have nothing but their current financial contribution, which they have given away.

A hard Brexit would have been the simple solution, it would have been finalized by now, and the state of the economy would start to truly reflect the state of affairs going forward.
The two year period would have started soon after the vote and negotiations would have been deep into the technical stages now, whether deal or no deal. Both sides would be resolving their cost savings and securing their borders against each other.

The key point in this is that there is no change for the EU, they will continue to protect the integrity of the union from all and sundry, whether that is China, Japan, USA, Canada or the UK sitting yards off the continent. Implementing a close union now under the auspices of the EU simply means that the EU gets to set the agenda for the next few years on how the UK economy will go, does any one really believe that the EU wants an offshore tax and trading post easily accessible to its members that does not follow their rules and regulations for life and trade?

At the end of the day, this is the worst of all possible situations for the UK, the so called fight in the upcoming negotiations needs two sides, since there is only one it will be a cake walk, what will be interesting to see and hear is the public PR campaign. Imagine the Blue Passport and NHS savings principle being applied to trade and financial services.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:47 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
To be honest, I don't think everyone has the right to vote when it comes to referendums (unlike elections, where everyone should vote). Many people make their decisions based on emotions, why should their uncontrolled emotions determine my life? This is not democracy, democracy does not mean taking a vote on any matter. Some line should be drawn there on what can be decided by a public vote, and what can be decided by only a group of mentally stable, wise, intelligent, and knowledgeable individuals. At worse, let the congress/parliament make the decisions, but to let some shallow, racist vote matters when making a crucial decision that would set the direction of the whole country is just madness in my opinion.


In France the constitution is very clear on this, there can't be a referendum on social issues or individual rights issues (so no vote about gay marriage, death penalty or things like that), however a Frexit vote would be perfectly legal.

After the 2005 referendum about the EU constitutional treaty was rejected by the French, despite a long and in my opinion reasonably good public debate, no French president has dared to call another referendum on any issue. Emmanuel Macron might try one to reduce the number of parliamentarians, as we can't expect parliamentarians themselves to vote such a law, but I won't hold my breath.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:52 pm

par13del wrote:
mmo wrote:
The UK never had any leverage at all! Perhaps I am wrong, but I would love to hear where you think the UK would have any leverage, especially with Boris as the PM and Farage as the negotiator! If you ever wanted two self serving politicians in power you just named the "dream team" with those two.

In my opinion, the leavers wanted to leave and explore the world outside of the fully integrated EU, if that is / was the case why do they need leverage?


They need leverage to get the kind of deal their leaders told them they would get.

Liam Fox saying Brexit will be the 'easiest deal in human history'
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bre ... 51656.html

"They need us more than we need them" by Vote Leave
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35409274

Which was endlessly repeated by the likes of Farage
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status ... 97?lang=en

Which in turn crystalised on the infamous "cake and eat it" approach.

Britain’s ‘have cake and eat it’ stance on Brexit
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-uk- ... xit-polls/

All led and supported by obscure think tanks like the Legatum institute promising a bright future of Britain as an economic world power post-Brexit after dropping the heavy saddles of EU membership.
https://www.li.com/activities/publicati ... prosperity

I am sure there's a minority of Britons willing to go through significant economic pain to get their blue passports and all those "sovereignty" feel-good measures. How many will after the evidence of clear, significant damage to their pocket, healthcare, etc.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:36 pm

seahawk wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The problem is that the people negotiating are from the remain camp. Farage should negotiate with the EU and Boris Johnson should be PM. They would handle the EU very differently and tell them what the UK demands.


Yes, and that would achieve what exactly for the UK? The UK has no leverage after all.


With a real willingness to go for the hard Brexit, they might have.


Out of the goodness of our hearts? I don't see it. A hard clean Brexit and that's what Farage would want. So fine, that's it then.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:09 pm

Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Yes, and that would achieve what exactly for the UK? The UK has no leverage after all.


With a real willingness to go for the hard Brexit, they might have.


Out of the goodness of our hearts? I don't see it. A hard clean Brexit and that's what Farage would want. So fine, that's it then.


It would also damage commercial interests of companies mostly based in the EU, so they might push for some form of compromise. But the risk and the possible consequences for the Uk would always be more severe, so it would only be a little more leverage, not the "have the cake and eat it" ideas. And more importantly you would have the people responsible for the decision having to work out the consequences. Any deal by may will be attacked by Farage and Johnson anyway.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:12 pm

seahawk wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:

With a real willingness to go for the hard Brexit, they might have.


Out of the goodness of our hearts? I don't see it. A hard clean Brexit and that's what Farage would want. So fine, that's it then.


It would also damage commercial interests of companies mostly based in the EU, so they might push for some form of compromise. But the risk and the possible consequences for the Uk would always be more severe, so it would only be a little more leverage, not the "have the cake and eat it" ideas. And more importantly you would have the people responsible for the decision having to work out the consequences. Any deal by may will be attacked by Farage and Johnson anyway.


Wait, the thing gets even funnier.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/950501082903580672

Remember all the times that ministers told us they were making contingency preparations for no-deal Brexit, setting aside £3bn and appointing a no-deal minister etc...?

Well, according to a letter from Davis to May (leaked to FT) they are now consulting lawyers about EU's own contingency preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

In the words of @patmcfaddenmp: "It seems extraordinary that the government is exercised about the EU preparing for a no deal scenario when it has set aside £3bn in its most recent Budget to do exactly the same thing..."


And of course the EU Commission responds:

Commission spokesman all deadpan just now: "We in the European Commission we are surprised that the United Kingdom is surprised that we are preparing for a scenario announced by the UK government itself."


UK: We must get serious about walking away without a deal.
EU: Okay let's get serious about walking away without a deal.
UK: How dare you get serious about walking away without a deal!

This is farcical. Pure blackadder or yes minister material.
 
mmo
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:25 pm

JJJ wrote:
par13del wrote:
mmo wrote:
The UK never had any leverage at all! Perhaps I am wrong, but I would love to hear where you think the UK would have any leverage, especially with Boris as the PM and Farage as the negotiator! If you ever wanted two self serving politicians in power you just named the "dream team" with those two.

In my opinion, the leavers wanted to leave and explore the world outside of the fully integrated EU, if that is / was the case why do they need leverage?


They need leverage to get the kind of deal their leaders told them they would get.

Liam Fox saying Brexit will be the 'easiest deal in human history'
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bre ... 51656.html

"They need us more than we need them" by Vote Leave
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35409274

Which was endlessly repeated by the likes of Farage
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status ... 97?lang=en

Which in turn crystalised on the infamous "cake and eat it" approach.

Britain’s ‘have cake and eat it’ stance on Brexit
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-uk- ... xit-polls/

All led and supported by obscure think tanks like the Legatum institute promising a bright future of Britain as an economic world power post-Brexit after dropping the heavy saddles of EU membership.
https://www.li.com/activities/publicati ... prosperity

I am sure there's a minority of Britons willing to go through significant economic pain to get their blue passports and all those "sovereignty" feel-good measures. How many will after the evidence of clear, significant damage to their pocket, healthcare, etc.


But again, the problem is they don't have, have never had, will never have any leverage at all during the negotiations. Anyone who believes a thing Farage says really needs to get their head examined. The politicians were in a position where they would say anything ie, Money coming to the NHS, lower immigration, the list goes on and on!. And the sad part is people believed them. The last bit is why we left the UK in August. The days of the Commonwealth and the sun never sets on the empire are long gone. The sooner the Farage followers understand that the sooner they will have a realistic look on how the UK fits in with the rest of the world. Sadly, politicians are only out for themselves.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1549
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:29 pm

scbriml wrote:

So are you saying we should ignore a democratic referendum vote? :confused:

I voted to remain, but we’re leaving because that’s what the majority voted for. You don’t get a second vote because you don’t the result of the first.


Heh - I'm going to stir the pot a bit because...why not?

Functioning democracies require checks and balances to temper the "will of the people", in order to neutralize the tyranny of the majority. As such, the "will of the people", although a nice sound bite, is routinely ignored, for example, on issues of basic human rights and freedoms, national security etc. As it should be. Otherwise you could end up with a situation where a "democratic referendum" could decide to strip the rights of a minority. What then?

Point being: Democracy cannot be distilled down to "majority rules". Every functioning democracy has built-in mechanisms that we're explicitly created to enable them to ignore "what the majority voted for".

As for the notion that "you don't get a second vote because you don't like the result of the first", it makes for a nice sound bite, but how do you justify it? What notion of democracy (Brexit version or real world) places a restriction on the number of times a referendum can be held? Which principle declares that once an issue is voted on, it can never be voted on again?

There is nothing in the world of referendums and democracy that says "you don't get a second vote because you don't like result of the first". Indeed, the opposite seems to be true. The Brexit referendum was, after all, a second vote on membership. Not the first.

Not that I support another referendum. I just don't understand the logic underpinning the opposition to a second referendum. It comes across as virtue-signalling, although it's not clear what the virtue is. Is believing that democracy means you can't change your mind considered a virtue these days?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:36 pm

JJJ wrote:
They need leverage to get the kind of deal their leaders told them they would get.

....but the leaders are not in charge or involved in the negotiations, only Boris is regarded as one of the leaders and he is not even on the negotiation team, if he had pushed for being on the team then we could throw up what he claimed during the campaign.

The PM decided to split her cabinet evenly between both factions, once that was decided everyone knew that it was all downhill, one cannot fight among yourselves while trying to negotiate with the EU, especially when there is nothing she could do about the members of the House and Lords who are all opposed.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:41 pm

JJJ wrote:
UK: We must get serious about walking away without a deal.
EU: Okay let's get serious about walking away without a deal.
UK: How dare you get serious about walking away without a deal!

This is farcical. Pure blackadder or yes minister material.

The PM had to "slap down' the Chancellor because his mantra was that he was not going to prepare for a no deal until the last minute, so guess what, despite what the PM was saying along with her negotiating team, the Chancellor was not onboard so no funding and no assistance whatsoever from the financial experts who he controls.

One does wonder what he has done since to ensure that he was not kicked out of the cabinet, because he did indeed make his PM look silly, and ultimately, the entire nation.
In some circles he may be regarded as a hero, if that is what it takes to remain.....................
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:31 am

I really think that Brexit is unavoidable now. The problem for the people who think that the UK could ask to join ater 10 or 15 years is that the EU should be a very different beast by then, if Macron and Merckel have their way. Macron is pushing hard for an inner circle that will move faster and closer.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:31 am

https://www.politico.eu/article/philip- ... -no-sense/

Seems some are still dreaming on :)

kermelen

“The U.K. understands it cannot have “all the benefits” of the European single market without “all the obligations,” but it would “make no sense” to create barriers to trade”

Barriers to trade might not make sense but they do exist worldwide. There is even a global arbitrator for them: the WTO.

Britain is itself creating new trade barriers by leaving the EU single market. And if it doesn’t make sense to create such new trade barriers then Brexit is not making sense indeed.

What’s a bizarre rhetoric where the party that creates a problem blame the other side for its own decisions? By leaving the EU single market, the UK is falling to WTO trade barriers.

An FTA could reduce the blow a little bit, but under WTO regulations, FTAs have limitations. They only define produces quota that could be traded without tariffs. It could hardly help a country that mostly exports services.

More than FTA are the free trade zones. CETA is an FTA but NAFTA is an FTZ. Like the EU single market is an FTZ actually. What a strange idea to leave a free trade zone only to ask for another similar one?

The only good news here is that the UK now understands there is some relation between benefits and obligations. The only problem is to claim for all the benefits but refuse any of the obligations. This freeloader attitude is doom to fail. It is time for Mr Davis and Mr Hammond to reveal what obligations are acceptable for the UK. Then the EU will tell them what benefits can be granted in return.

And if this is not enough then instead of bemoaning pitifully they should better reconsider and accept more obligations to grab more benefits.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:07 am

Olddog wrote:
if Macron and Merckel have their way. Macron is pushing hard for an inner circle that will move faster and closer.


How much appetite is therearound the EU for Macron's project of centralized "federation"???
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:46 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
Olddog wrote:
if Macron and Merckel have their way. Macron is pushing hard for an inner circle that will move faster and closer.


How much appetite is therearound the EU for Macron's project of centralized "federation"???


Macron wants to be remembered (and probably thinks of himself) as a Monnet or Schuman, and there will never be one of those.

The integration process will be incremental, and made by beancounters rather than visionary politicians.
 
mmo
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:05 am

Olddog wrote:
I really think that Brexit is unavoidable now. The problem for the people who think that the UK could ask to join ater 10 or 15 years is that the EU should be a very different beast by then, if Macron and Merckel have their way. Macron is pushing hard for an inner circle that will move faster and closer.


It's more basic than that. Right now the UK has several enticements given to them as an inducement to join the EU. For instance, rebate on membership fees, retaining the Pound and there are several others. There is no doubt in my mind, should the UK at a later point in time desire to rejoin the EU it will be even more painful (financially and politically) than BREXIT has been. There would be no reason for the EU to give the UK a "special deal" to rejoin after they pulled out once.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:26 pm

Well, not nice welcome for davis&hammond:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ank-access

Germany will demand the U.K. pay for the privilege of its financial firms having access to European Union markets after Brexit as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government maintains a hard-line stance against a bespoke trade deal.

The U.K. cannot hope for a trade agreement that includes financial services unless Britain agrees to make substantial contributions to the EU budget and adheres to European law, according to German officials from two key government departments in Berlin. Both asked not to be named discussing internal government strategy.

Even before the negotiations start on Britain’s future relationship with the EU, Germany’s position risks thwarting the U.K.’s aim of securing a tailor-made deal. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government regards Germany’s stance as crucial -- both Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond and Brexit Secretary David Davis are due in Germany on Wednesday to meet business groups and make the case for a wide-ranging Brexit deal.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:49 pm

One can only hope that the Remainers will finally realize that a hard brexit is their only option, the price that they will pay to trade with the EU may not be worth it or be worse than if they stood alone.
The issue they seem to not understand is that at present, the EU controls a large portion of their economy, they are acting as if the funds that they generate now have no linkage with the EU so if they are not in the EU they will have the same amount of funds available to pay in. Since the EU controls so much and based on what they have agreed to do will also control their actions for the next two years, how much growth do they think the EU will allow in the next two years, enough to show the other members that leaving the EU is beneficial?
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:16 am

par13del wrote:
One can only hope that the Remainers will finally realize that a hard brexit is their only option


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/a ... rexit.html

Prices up 30%, 18% growth wiped off up until 2030 (including a two-year recession).....

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot before a marathon.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:30 am

par13del wrote:
how much growth do they think the EU will allow in the next two years, enough to show the other members that leaving the EU is beneficial?


That is a ridiculous statement, the EU facilitates growth by having an integrated economy, the EU doesn't set standards for growth which each member is allowed to have.

And even we all believe in the conspiracy of the all bad EU doing what it wants: the EU, btw, is an institution controlled by its member states, which, currently at least, also includes the UK, so why would the UK shoot itself in the foot by limiting growth in the next two years?

It is complete bullocks.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:23 pm

You just can't make this one up: now even N. Farage is having second thoughts and is considering joining the call for a second referendum....

https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farage ... t-11203281

officially it's simply to reaffirm the result of the first one, but clearly the man is starting to stare into the void in front of him, knowing history will soon start to judge him and all the rosy promises.

UK politics are definitely outdoing even the best of the "Yes, Prime Minister" episodes: London is really the laughing stock of western Europe, these days!

Next time, before deciding to give something up, maybe come up with a plan of what it is you want first, then?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:36 pm

Dutchy wrote:
That is a ridiculous statement, the EU facilitates growth by having an integrated economy, the EU doesn't set standards for growth which each member is allowed to have.

What integration do you expect the UK to have after Mar-2019 and for the two year transition period that will be beneficial to the UK going forward as a stand alone economy not under the rules and jurisdiction of the EU? Look at Norway or other countries who live under the EU regulations but do not participate in their decision making, that is where the UK is headed.

The EU would be doing its members a disservice if they assist the UK to the detriment of any existing member. In my opinion, the EU has to exert as much control as necessary to ensure that what the UK has done - give its citizens a vote on EU membership - and opting to leave is not something that any other member would be willing to emulate. Organizations or groupings of members of any kind has always functioned to protect the core, I think the EU is no different, you disagree that is fine, it why we have a discussion forum.
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:42 pm

JJJ wrote:
par13del wrote:
One can only hope that the Remainers will finally realize that a hard brexit is their only option


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/a ... rexit.html

Prices up 30%, 18% growth wiped off up until 2030 (including a two-year recession).....

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot before a marathon.


Oh please, that was a report from one Netherlands based investment bank. if we try hard enough we can all find stories like this to support our standpoint.

Meanwhile, even the Europhile BBC has ceased to prefix good economic figures with "despite brexit"
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:44 pm

Bongodog1964 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
par13del wrote:
One can only hope that the Remainers will finally realize that a hard brexit is their only option


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/a ... rexit.html

Prices up 30%, 18% growth wiped off up until 2030 (including a two-year recession).....

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot before a marathon.


Oh please, that was a report from one Netherlands based investment bank. if we try hard enough we can all find stories like this to support our standpoint.

Meanwhile, even the Europhile BBC has ceased to prefix good economic figures with "despite brexit"


"Despite brexit" is meaningless because Brexit hasn't happened yet, and all the indicators point towards the softest possible Brexit.

Would you rather believe the very British Cambridge econometrics? (commissioned by the City of London and released today)

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default ... n_2018.pdf

Half a million jobs and a decade of growth would be gone under no deal.

But surely you've had enough of experts right?
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:46 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
You just can't make this one up: now even N. Farage is having second thoughts and is considering joining the call for a second referendum....

https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farage ... t-11203281

officially it's simply to reaffirm the result of the first one, but clearly the man is starting to stare into the void in front of him, knowing history will soon start to judge him and all the rosy promises.

UK politics are definitely outdoing even the best of the "Yes, Prime Minister" episodes: London is really the laughing stock of western Europe, these days!

Next time, before deciding to give something up, maybe come up with a plan of what it is you want first, then?


Just be happy for us, if the EU is as good as you say, we (the UK) have done you a favour, our withdrawal and subsequent descent into financial oblivion will be to your benefit.

I just cannot see how anyone who is a mmeber of a club with such great benefits can be unhappy at a member leaving with the result that the remaining members will be better off
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:41 pm

JJJ wrote:
"Despite brexit" is meaningless because Brexit hasn't happened yet, and all the indicators point towards the softest possible Brexit.

Hmmm... a lot of persons where misled into believing that the fall in the pound was because of Brexit and the rosy economic figures the UK economy retained was also because of Brexit, like I said, hhhmmmm....

JJJ wrote:
Would you rather believe the very British Cambridge econometrics? (commissioned by the City of London and released today)

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default ... n_2018.pdf

Half a million jobs and a decade of growth would be gone under no deal.

But surely you've had enough of experts right?

I would say they are correct, every right thinking persons should expect there the to be a loss of EU created and or EU specific jobs, it is what one would expect if they leave the EU.
During the referendum campaign, apart from the bus NHS signs, one of the points pushed was that trade with countries outside of the EU would increase, thus offsetting the loss of growth and jobs dependent solely on the EU and its economic integration. The theory being that the close integration of the EU economies and the mechanisms used to accomplish that can also be a hinderance to growth and increased economic development. One can only do such in models and because there is an ingrown fear of the unknown, we see the push on the UK side to put toes into the water versus a foot, so it will relegated to an unproven theory.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:54 pm

par13del wrote:
JJJ wrote:
"Despite brexit" is meaningless because Brexit hasn't happened yet, and all the indicators point towards the softest possible Brexit.

Hmmm... a lot of persons where misled into believing that the fall in the pound was because of Brexit and the rosy economic figures the UK economy retained was also because of Brexit, like I said, hhhmmmm....


Currencies are much more volatile than the economy, very much like the stock exchange. One piece of bad news will send the exchange rate tumbling almost immediately.

The economy as a whole takes a while for inputs to be felt.

I would say they are correct, every right thinking persons should expect there the to be a loss of EU created and or EU specific jobs, it is what one would expect if they leave the EU.
During the referendum campaign, apart from the bus NHS signs, one of the points pushed was that trade with countries outside of the EU would increase,


And how's that? Because leaving the EU leaves the UK in a worse position to trade with the rest of the world, not better. For starters right now the EU has significant trade agreements or full free trade agreements with a lot of significant players (Canada, S. Korea, Japan, USA, etc.). The UK will have to redraw those agreements, which often take years if not decades.

Meanwhile, UK exports will be at a disadvantage while trying to play catch up, to the point that some voices in the May government have even proposed to join the TPP.

Think about this for a while, the UK now wants to join the polar opposite of the dynamic flexible agreement that they told everyone they'd be getting. Changing a straightjacket for another one, except this one is two sizes smaller. This very much proves what little leverage the UK has.

And looking at the Canada row, the US will seize the chance to royally shaft the UK on their terms.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:50 pm

Or just have a second referendum to silence the critics of the Brexit. According to Farage the support for the Brexit is stronger than ever http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 53106.html
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:10 pm

seahawk wrote:
Or just have a second referendum to silence the critics of the Brexit. According to Farage the support for the Brexit is stronger than ever http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 53106.html


Which is idiotic. If leave wins you just lost a few more of your precious negotiating weeks with the EU. If remain wins everyone will just say "how stupid we were to run the referendum in the first place"?

Remember when Theresa May called an election to strengthen her position? It went just fine didn't it?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:23 pm

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
That is a ridiculous statement, the EU facilitates growth by having an integrated economy, the EU doesn't set standards for growth which each member is allowed to have.

What integration do you expect the UK to have after Mar-2019 and for the two year transition period that will be beneficial to the UK going forward as a stand alone economy not under the rules and jurisdiction of the EU? Look at Norway or other countries who live under the EU regulations but do not participate in their decision making, that is where the UK is headed.

The EU would be doing its members a disservice if they assist the UK to the detriment of any existing member. In my opinion, the EU has to exert as much control as necessary to ensure that what the UK has done - give its citizens a vote on EU membership - and opting to leave is not something that any other member would be willing to emulate. Organizations or groupings of members of any kind has always functioned to protect the core, I think the EU is no different, you disagree that is fine, it why we have a discussion forum.


Ah ok, I misunderstood you, as they are a full member, the UK also has all the benefits. The big question is what kind of status will they have in the two years grease period, probably indeed something like Norway, no influence, but still all the benefits. And after that, it will be a big unknown, that's what the UK wants, what are they willing to give up, to get in return. The graph earlier in this thread was excellent --> want full control of its borders, sure, then you get a deal like ......
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:50 pm

JJJ wrote:
And how's that? Because leaving the EU leaves the UK in a worse position to trade with the rest of the world, not better. For starters right now the EU has significant trade agreements or full free trade agreements with a lot of significant players (Canada, S. Korea, Japan, USA, etc.). The UK will have to redraw those agreements, which often take years if not decades.

When you have 28 different countries with competing interest it will take decades, one of the downsides of the EU not being a nation unto itself.
JJJ wrote:
Think about this for a while, the UK now wants to join the polar opposite of the dynamic flexible agreement that they told everyone they'd be getting. Changing a straightjacket for another one, except this one is two sizes smaller. This very much proves what little leverage the UK has.

It may well be a smaller straight jacket but at least the folks who will be living in it can now claim it versus complaining that they are in the EU straight jacket through no fault of their own.
JJJ wrote:
And looking at the Canada row, the US will seize the chance to royally shaft the UK on their terms.

Another flip side is that a lot of them presently believe that they are getting the royal shaft from the EU who has placed other members interest above their own, reality is that they are going to get the shaft, the question is which one will they own.

All of these point to why the UK needs to preserve whatever funds they have to cushion the hit of leaving the EU, example, who is going to start trade negotiations with the UK now, for implementation in two years time when the UK itself does not know what they will be allowed to do?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:42 pm

Sober economists have predicted that the Brexit will result in a modestly poorer economy, nothing like a disaster. The real scandal of the three idiots leading the Brexit vote was their out and out lies (like a great infusion of money to the health program), and not having done their homework on the results of Brexit in the various sectors of the economy. While perhaps the former could be forgiven, the later cannot. They not only did not do that homework, they did not even know what sort of agreement they wanted with the EU. Nor their having any recommendation about the implications for Ireland and Gibraltar. Their repeated suggestions that imagination and creativity could patch up the problems is surely high comedy challenging the Three Stooges.
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:54 pm

Except it was a referendum, not an election, so the government of the day is / was tasked to implement the result of the vote, not the Three Stooges. Maybe if DC could have resigned his entire government and called an election the current situation would be different,.
The only reason why we are not talking about the other set of crappy figures and results pushed out by the government is because they lost the vote. Unfortunately, DC left so and we got TM whose first priority was to cement her position versus implement the results of the vote which I think she also did not agree with the result.
The result of a public vote is that you never know which way it would go, now if only the politicians were allowed to vote we can ensure the results.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:25 am

JJJ wrote:
"Despite brexit" is meaningless because Brexit hasn't happened yet....

Huh, is that correct? I see Brexit happening every day, and it has been so since December 2015 when DC announced the referendum.

In corporate boardrooms in EU27 and in the UK decisions are made every day based on expected future business climate. Decisions which sometimes affect their businesses for decades to come. We don't see those decisions. We only see some consequential indicators.

The most prominent indicator is of course the Pound/Euro exchange rate on 22 June 2016. And to a lesser extent the slide from December 2015 to June 2016.

Getting it over with ASAP is likely the best thing which can happen to the UK now. Uncertainty is what is most disliked in corporate boardrooms.

It isn't limited to EU27 and UK boardrooms. Asian and American companies, who plan on investments in the old world, will today look carefully on whether to choose UK or EU27, while until December 2015 the UK and EU27 were on an equal footing.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:00 am

par13del wrote:
When you have 28 different countries with competing interest it will take decades, one of the downsides of the EU not being a nation unto itself.


That's a major fallacy, too. On the grand scheme of things the UK economy is very much like very other Western European developed economy with heavy emphasis on the service sector. What does the UK export? The answer is, very much the same as France or Germany.

Top 3 chapters, all accounting for half-ish of exports are invariably these ones:
- Machinery
- Vehicles (cars, airplanes, parts, etc.)
- Chemicals

Medical equipment is also up there, so are plastic products, wine and liquor, textiles, etc. In fact most Western economies look remarkably similar with only minor glitches (for example the UK has oil, which of course Germany and France don't, and there's Gold there too, but more goes in than out so the net effect is negligible it is the actual trading process in gold that provides the UK with something).

Bottom line being: the trade deals that benefit Germany and France and the Netherlands also benefit the UK.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:29 am

Actually France has probably significant amounts of shale oil and gas, and certainly oil in French Guiana (deep in the Atlantic), but we don't want to exploit it. There are only a few old school wells near Paris (very near to where I am, actually), and NIMBYs don't want any more.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:13 pm

Bongodog1964 wrote:
Germany restarted their steel, coal etc with new plant via the Marshall Plan, we limped on with muscles instead of machines.


The UK got almost 2.5 times the money Germany did and was the by far biggest recipient of Marshall plan funding. They also got about the same amount in additional loans unconnected to the Marshall plan.
But nice attempt at revising history.

Best regards
Thomas
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:49 pm

The only thing I will add to this off topic is how much money the UK had to re-pay in the Lend Lease deals which in terms of just money, offset a lot of the Marshall Plan funding. However, it does give insight to where countries like Greece are heading with their mountain of debt and the refusal of anyone to be wiling to write off even a portion of the debt. It used to be said that financing was the new way of colonization and folks only looked at it in the developing world, in the world of finance control is control regardless of who is being controlled, or manipulated if that is a more PC term.

On a more practical scale it is always easier to start from scratch versus attempting to modernize, so after WWII the rebuild of German and Japan industry ensured they started off with less legacy issues, it does not mean it was any easier as most of the countries were devastated and a lot of the technical civilians expertise was gone, including those taken by the victors.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6215847.stm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:46 pm

Avoiding the Euro was a key strategy for GB in preserving an essential sovereignty. And it somewhat is the factor in destroying the Greek economy as well as crippling Spain and Italy. Monetary unity without fiscal unity is madness. Economists as disparate as Friedman and Krugman have explained this.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:46 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Avoiding the Euro was a key strategy for GB in preserving an essential sovereignty. And it somewhat is the factor in destroying the Greek economy as well as crippling Spain and Italy. Monetary unity without fiscal unity is madness. Economists as disparate as Friedman and Krugman have explained this.


Yes, Spain, Italy and mainly Greece have paid a price for the Euro, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and the like have huge benefits because of the Euro. If the UK had elected to become a member of the Euro community, it would have benefited as well.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:48 pm

How does one benefit from handing over control of ones currency to another country?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:57 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
How does one benefit from handing over control of ones currency to another country?


Germany and the likes benefited in two way:
- The currency is too weak for the strong economies and that's why the export is more booming then otherwise would have been.
- The interest on state loans is way too low, because of low risk, the interest on a ten year loan is almost zero for Germany.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:51 am

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
How does one benefit from handing over control of ones currency to another country?


Well, since no county has ever done that, that is a pretty useless question.
The Euro is, exactly like the Pound, governed by an independent central bank.
Being member of the Euro actually means a lot less control over your currency in the hands of interests outside the currency union. Using your currency to weaken another currency is much easier with the Pound than it is with the Euro.

Best regards
Thomas
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:46 pm

Here is a link to a VOX article on the economics of the Euro, and why it hurt Greece, Italy, and Spain. I want to emphasize that this is an easy to read version of what better economists, whether on the left or on the right have said.
https://www.vox.com/2015/6/30/8868973/e ... is-mistake
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tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:03 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Here is a link to a VOX article on the economics of the Euro, and why it hurt Greece, Italy, and Spain. I want to emphasize that this is an easy to read version of what better economists, whether on the left or on the right have said.
https://www.vox.com/2015/6/30/8868973/e ... is-mistake


And they are all wrong. And they don't know much. So Greek people don't go to Germany to find work? Funny, considering that 1 in 10 Greek citizen already has lived and worked in Germany at some point in their lives. There are about 300.000 Greek living and working in Germany, that is 3% of their population. And no, that is not just the best of the best, engineers and such, those are overrepresented, but so are low skilled people. It is obviously possible and many companies don't have problems to hire people that don't speak German, as long as they speak workable English.
There are 700.000 Greece people in Greece that already did live in Germany, that is 2/3 of the Greek unemployed.
Well, in fact plenty of Greek people are moving to Germany, just almost as many are moving back, many of them to retire back home.

How would you rank the following items in their contribution to the current mess?

- having the stable and strong Euro instead of the weak and highly volatile drachma?
- the Greek government taking in more loans than they could carry in any other but the most optimistic scenario?
- Greek employees demanding wage increases beyond productivity increases compared to other EU countries, and getting them, to the point of actually decreasing productivity?
- Banks giving loans to Greece at interest rates not reflecting the risk and beyond Greece's carrying capacity in all but the most optimistic scenario?
- Greece's burocracy's failure to collect taxes effectively to the tune of 20 billion Euro/year? You know, which in sum total since Greece joint the EURO would pay the national debt.

The only advantage you get from the ability to devaluate your currency is that wage reductions across the board are quick and easy, with no politician, boss or banker getting his hands dirty, you know the kind of "we have to show restrains with wage increases" and "cut wages" sort of unpopular talk. And that is what it is, currency devaluation is nothing more or less than wage cuts for everyone without parliament, citizens and Unions having any say in it. They are doing some pretty marvellous scam with the "currency devaluation is good" mantra. It is basically saying "wage cuts are good". It's BS just as much as trickle down economic, that doesn't work, and no economist ever said* it would before it was sold in a huge PR campaign or that high taxes kill the economy, while in fact outside of extremees it is pretty much irrelevant. Or that a good, hence expensive, social security system kills the economy, pretty tough statement in the face of countries having that and their economic success.

Germany is doing good right now because we went through some pretty tough structural and social security reforms and a decade of wage discipline, you know, the unpopular no raise/wage cut sort of thing, 10-15 years ago.

Best regards
Thomas

*obviously there would have been a couple of fringe voices.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:39 pm

Thomas - a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Greek government was a fault for the corruption and secret debt they ran up, but it mostly was ran up with funds from German and French banks. Those banks received the bailout funds the EU made to Greece, and were largely made whole. The Greek people have been grievously hurt. Italy, Spain, and Portugal who did not over borrow have also been hurt. France did OK, and Germany has thrived at the expense of the south. Devaluation especially hurts those close to poverty by increasing the effective amount of their debt.

I am pro EU, but don't kid myself that it performed well with the 2007 downturn. It performed horribly, and at the expense of the poor. Brexit, which I think a poor idea, was one of the results.
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tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:07 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Thomas - a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Greek government was a fault for the corruption and secret debt they ran up, but it mostly was ran up with funds from German and French banks. .


Well, since i had the banks explicitly in my line up i don´t see what you are getting at. Having the EURO was the least of Greece´s problems. Having the EURO is likely the only reason why Greece didn´t full on default on its debt.

Those banks received the bailout funds the EU made to Greece, and were largely made whole.


What do you think would have happend with Greece if they have not been in the EURO? Would Germany let Deutsche Bank go bankrupt as a systemic institute? Nope. Would that have prevented Greece from defaulting on its debtr? Nope. Would Greece defaulting on its debt been better for the Greek? With a government having no money and no ability to get money? How would Greece have fared with the Drachma, likely pretty much in free fall at the time, but all those debt being in EUR (well, or DEM, CHF....) and USD, just much of the nations debt before the EURO?
They don´t have abundant natural resources to export like Argentina....

best regards
Thomas
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