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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:15 am

The British goals were always a bit different though, It was always more about control and power.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:26 am

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Politically they can't do anything else. They might opt for another referendum if they are "forced" to with massif protest, but otherwise, the Brexit will happen.

If by Brexit you mean the UK leaving the EU and starting trade relations with the rest of the world....my bet nyet....by Mar-2019 I expect an extension at whatever price with whatever conditions the EU demands, sufficient to ensure the citizens feel the hit and realize the error of their ways - call it a new form of re-education - which will lead to either a new public vote (I doubt that) or a unanimous resolution by parliament authorizing re-entry into the EU.


The Brittish economy is feeling it right now already. Perhaps the scenario you put forward will be proven right, we'll see. The next elections will be quite important for this. I personally don't think May will be there much longer, to weak for a Brittish PM in this day and age.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:19 am

ElPistolero wrote:
3. Be prepared to address key "hindrances" that the US faces with the EU, including:
- US’ limited or non-existent access to the EU’s standard-setting process
- lack of transparency and a lack of ability to participate in the EU’s regulatory process;
- "limited role of science in assessing risk especially in sanitary and phytosanitary matters”.


I guess delusion is not limited to the UK.

How on Earth will the UK bend the EU to US' will while outside the EU, when it couldn't do it while inside ?

Does the EU have the ability to participate in the US regulatory process ? Is there even a US regulatory process ? Each US state does its own thing. Limited role of science meaning limited role of bought scientists and armies of lobbyists (not for a lack of trying).
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:26 am

ElPistolero wrote:
UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Actually I wasn't all that in favour of signing some super liberal trade deal with the US anyway.

Although I do believe the scare stories over chlorinated chicken have been rather exaggerated haven't they?


I'm missing the nuance here - what is the difference between a super liberal trade deal and a free trade agreement? I recall the opportunity to negotiate more of the latter being characterized as a positive by the Brexit brigade. Is that no longer an objective?


There are many aspects to a free trade agreement. Basically it's about import taxes, but in practice, it's not what matters the most. Let's say there is no more tax to import cars into the US. You still need your car to meet every US standard for cars (in reality, every Californian standard). Same for US cars imported to the UK/EU. So a free trade agreement that would really boost competition for cars would include some method to make car regulations uniform, maybe an international body to standardize everything.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:08 am

Olddog wrote:

No. Your vision of the EU goals is totally wrong. You should read what the people who started to build it since the 18/04/1951 said and not the english vision.

Not my vision, I said one of the goals of the EU, indeed, most Europeans on this site in all the threads on Brexit have been very clear to remind us all that closer integration of the European countries was always a founding principle of all the constructs created after WWII whether it was the Common Market, Economic Area, etc all of which led to the EU you have today in name and body. We can always go further up in the thread to see where numerous posters have said the UK will not have the negotiating leverage as a single nation versus the collective group of nations which is the EU, so where exactly am I off in listing one of the goals of the EU?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:16 am

Aesma wrote:
How on Earth will the UK bend the EU to US' will while outside the EU, when it couldn't do it while inside ?

....so the USA version of the continuing Project Fear, your one sentence shows why voters usually ignore such documents and throw most of it away even if it may and I say may have some good points.
The Special Relationship between the USA and UK is just that, a relationship between the UK and the USA, nothing to do with the EU, all one has to do is to look at the mood in Europe when the Brexit vote came in, whether we agree or not, a lot of persons were finally glad that the UK would be leaving, as in many quarters, they are seen as obstructionist to the European agenda versus an aid and willing partner to European integration.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:35 pm

Aesma wrote:

I guess delusion is not limited to the UK.

How on Earth will the UK bend the EU to US' will while outside the EU, when it couldn't do it while inside ?

Does the EU have the ability to participate in the US regulatory process ? Is there even a US regulatory process ? Each US state does its own thing. Limited role of science meaning limited role of bought scientists and armies of lobbyists (not for a lack of trying).


Thats not what I meant. I don't think the US wants the UK to change the EU.

I interpret his words as meaning that the US wants greater participation in U.K. regulation development and standards-setting going forward, particularly in those areas that affect US exports to the U.K. In fact, he seems to be implying that it's a pre-condition.

Kind of makes a mockery of the "take back control" narrative, at least insofar as regulations are concerned, because DC will call the shots instead of Brussels. The only difference is that Britain will not have the same level of influence in DC going forward, as it did in Brussels as an EU member in the past. If anything, adopting the the Ross model would ensure even less control on regulations than Britain had during the EU era.

It'll be interesting to see how the US reacts if Britain disagrees to US participation in these processes post-Brexit.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:40 pm

In the end it shows that you can not have a trade deal with the USA and the EU, as the regulations do not match. I think the UK over estimated their global importance. Without the EU every European nation is just a small player in the global market.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:22 pm

seahawk wrote:
In the end it shows that you can not have a trade deal with the USA and the EU, as the regulations do not match. I think the UK over estimated their global importance. Without the EU every European nation is just a small player in the global market.


You can have it. The EU and the US have extensive trade agreements, Canada is in NAFTA and signed CETA.

The US is just bullying the UK into keeping their status as US backdoor to the EU market. Read between the lines and it says "part of the reason the UK is so important to the US is because it provides access to the EU, lose that and we'll have to look elsewhere".
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:33 pm

JJJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
In the end it shows that you can not have a trade deal with the USA and the EU, as the regulations do not match. I think the UK over estimated their global importance. Without the EU every European nation is just a small player in the global market.


You can have it. The EU and the US have extensive trade agreements, Canada is in NAFTA and signed CETA.

The US is just bullying the UK into keeping their status as US backdoor to the EU market. Read between the lines and it says "part of the reason the UK is so important to the US is because it provides access to the EU, lose that and we'll have to look elsewhere".


But those trade deals between the EU and the US never mean unlimited access to the market. And if one is honest that "offer" is a good reason for the EU to be very careful when it comes to a deal with the UK, which then could nullify the US offer.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:50 pm

par13del wrote:
Olddog wrote:

No. Your vision of the EU goals is totally wrong. You should read what the people who started to build it since the 18/04/1951 said and not the english vision.

Not my vision, I said one of the goals of the EU, indeed, most Europeans on this site in all the threads on Brexit have been very clear to remind us all that closer integration of the European countries was always a founding principle of all the constructs created after WWII whether it was the Common Market, Economic Area,


you are confusing goals with results. The goal was more growth and wealth by avoiding war, as a consequence of that being successful the EU now is a large economic block.

best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:02 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
you are confusing goals with results. The goal was more growth and wealth by avoiding war, as a consequence of that being successful the EU now is a large economic block.

best regards
Thomas

Well, one of the issues with Brexit is that the Leavers claimed that the only vote they were given was to join the Common Market which was a trade group, they were never given a vote on all the other legal entities which came along which now influence and control their lives in many ways, fortunately or unfortunately, this was never properly addressed by the politicians in the UK hence a contributing factor to the No Vote and a big item for some wanting a complete break from the legal constructs of the European Court system, an item previously addressed in this thread.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:04 pm

JJJ wrote:
The US is just bullying the UK into keeping their status as US backdoor to the EU market. Read between the lines and it says "part of the reason the UK is so important to the US is because it provides access to the EU, lose that and we'll have to look elsewhere".

The USA has thousands of lives invested in Europe and billions spent on the reconstruction of Europe after WWII, does the USA really need back door influence to sit down and talk with European nations?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:09 pm

par13del wrote:
Well, one of the issues with Brexit is that the Leavers claimed that the only vote they were given was to join the Common Market which was a trade group, they were never given a vote on all the other legal entities which came along which now influence and control their lives in many ways, fortunately or unfortunately, this was never properly addressed by the politicians in the UK hence a contributing factor to the No Vote and a big item for some wanting a complete break from the legal constructs of the European Court system, an item previously addressed in this thread.


So, you are saying the people voting the UK into the EU where just as ill informed as the people voting to leave?

And of course the UK, and hence the people of the UK, always had full control over the "other legal entities which came along which now influence and control their lives in many ways", since all expansions in size and scope have been consensus decisions, i.e. the UK could have just said "no". They didn´t.

Unless of course you want to argue that the UK isn´t in fact a pseudo parliamentarian democracy, and giving the electorate bad info and doing whatever the hell they want anyways is standard procedure in the Kingdom.

best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:34 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The next elections will be quite important for this. I personally don't think May will be there much longer, to weak for a Brittish PM in this day and age.


i would love a re-entry into that EU, since that should mean Schengen and EUR ....

best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:42 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
So, you are saying the people voting the UK into the EU where just as ill informed as the people voting to leave?
best regards
Thomas

No, nor do I ascribe to the theory that 17+million people in this age of digital instant media were ill informed because they voted leave, I think they had some valid concerns, not everyone voted leave because of the Boris bus.
In a general sense one can say that when you go to the polls to elect a government, you have given them the right to represent you on everything under the sun, this is the precedent thrown around after the last Irish vote, which is fine, in the context of my post I was talking about a public vote by the masses versus a vote by their elected officials.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:52 pm

par13del wrote:
JJJ wrote:
The US is just bullying the UK into keeping their status as US backdoor to the EU market. Read between the lines and it says "part of the reason the UK is so important to the US is because it provides access to the EU, lose that and we'll have to look elsewhere".

The USA has thousands of lives invested in Europe and billions spent on the reconstruction of Europe after WWII, does the USA really need back door influence to sit down and talk with European nations?


Judging by the sluggish pace of EU-USA trade negotiations and that Trump is on record telling Merkel they want to cut a deal with Germany alone, not the EU it seems they do.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:54 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
i would love a re-entry into that EU, since that should mean Schengen and EUR ....

best regards
Thomas

....no rebates, etc etc etc.
The landscape has forever been changed
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:57 pm

JJJ wrote:
Judging by the sluggish pace of EU-USA trade negotiations and that Trump is on record telling Merkel they want to cut a deal with Germany alone, not the EU it seems they do.

One of the benefits of the USA political system is that POTUS can only influence the political landscape for 8 years, the USA also has a large civil service who in time like the current POTUS fly under the radar as everything is blamed on POTUS. Trump obviously does not know the laws of the EU hence his statement.
A number of the gaffes done by the USA over the years have been done or initiated by the professionals in civil service.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:23 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The next elections will be quite important for this. I personally don't think May will be there much longer, to weak for a Brittish PM in this day and age.


i would love a re-entry into that EU, since that should mean Schengen and EUR ....

best regards
Thomas


Ahhh but it wouldn't necessarily mean the EUR because economies have to meet certain criteria.

We wouldn't another Greece situation would we?
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:02 pm

Before a re-entry, could be nice to reach the exit first ? :)
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:45 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The next elections will be quite important for this. I personally don't think May will be there much longer, to weak for a Brittish PM in this day and age.


i would love a re-entry into that EU, since that should mean Schengen and EUR ....

best regards
Thomas


Ahhh but it wouldn't necessarily mean the EUR because economies have to meet certain criteria.


It is sort of a "you have to join the EURO as well, but not before you meet these criteria" deal.
And I don't think any government would deliberately, and for the long run, keep their economy weak just to stay put of the EURO.

Best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:48 pm

par13del wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
So, you are saying the people voting the UK into the EU where just as ill informed as the people voting to leave?
best regards
Thomas

No, nor do I ascribe to the theory that 17+million people in this age of digital instant media were ill informed because they voted leave, I think they had some valid concerns, not everyone voted leave because of the Boris bus.
In a general sense one can say that when you go to the polls to elect a government, you have given them the right to represent you on everything under the sun, this is the precedent thrown around after the last Irish vote, which is fine, in the context of my post I was talking about a public vote by the masses versus a vote by their elected officials.


The concerns were valid, it was not valid that the Brexit is the solution for those concerns. I do not blame the voters in the UK, because no normal person can interpret the EU treaties on their own or could know the pension scheme of the EU. Politicians and Civil Servants should have known though.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:17 pm

seahawk wrote:

The concerns were valid, it was not valid that the Brexit is the solution for those concerns. I do not blame the voters in the UK, because no normal person can interpret the EU treaties on their own or could know the pension scheme of the EU. Politicians and Civil Servants should have known though.


Politicians and Civil Servants did know. That's probably why the majority of them voted against Brexit. Indeed, the majority of Tory MPs voted against Brexit.

Nonetheless, the Brexiteers think they know and understand anything - few if any of them are willing to accept that things are not as simple as they believe them to be. Instead they choose to dismiss it as "unpatriotic" and "talking Britain down".

They most certainly should be blamed for their hubris.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:26 pm

tommy1808 wrote:

It is sort of a "you have to join the EURO as well, but not before you meet these criteria" deal.


I think we'll see about that although I would hope we aren't rejoining.

Giving up ones currency is effectively shooting the independence of your country in the foot whether you want to pretend otherwise or not.
 
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:50 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

It is sort of a "you have to join the EURO as well, but not before you meet these criteria" deal.


I think we'll see about that although I would hope we aren't rejoining.

Giving up ones currency is effectively shooting the independence of your country in the foot whether you want to pretend otherwise or not.


Truly independency is a fairy tale anyhow. Pretending otherwise is just naive. We are all dependable on each other, even China.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:35 pm

Does China give someone else control over their monetary policy?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:13 am

ElPistolero wrote:
Politicians and Civil Servants did know. That's probably why the majority of them voted against Brexit. Indeed, the majority of Tory MPs voted against Brexit.

Nonetheless, the Brexiteers think they know and understand anything - few if any of them are willing to accept that things are not as simple as they believe them to be. Instead they choose to dismiss it as "unpatriotic" and "talking Britain down".

They most certainly should be blamed for their hubris.

The flip side of that coin is that those in the UK who work for the EU and in the Civil Service are not the majority of the citizens in the country, for whatever reason, they along with the bulk of the English Parliament along with many influential business leaders and EU interest were somehow not able to get their message across to the voters prior to the vote. The issue they now face is that they are seen as obstructionist as they continue to put forth positions on the UK remaining in the EU which are not under their control but the sole control of the EU, maybe they also do not fully understand the EU?

All of this does lend credence to the thought process that the vote was also a protest against the "elites" and those in Parliament who they deem to not listen and act on their concerns.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:25 am

par13del wrote:
The flip side of that coin is that those in the UK who work for the EU and in the Civil Service are not the majority of the citizens in the country


Neither are pilots or doctors, but you wouldn't want your plane flown/surgery conducted by the populist choice rather than the trained professional, would you?

That business leaders/politicians/civil servants couldn't communicate the message is only half the problem. The other half of the problem is the comprehension ability/intellectual capacity of the people they're trying to communicate with. If everyone had the intellectual acuity to become pilots and doctors, you might have a point. The issue here is that they don't. No amount of communicating with them will enable them to fully understand the complexities inherent in those professions.

That's why Parliamentary democracies delegate authority to representatives, supported by a professional, well-educated civil service, instead of deciding the budget or industrial policy or whatever by referendum.

Sure, there's an element of protesting against the elite. There is always going to be a fundamental tension between the the haves and the have-nots. That's why most countries address issues like wealth distribution through legislatures, rather than through referendum that can be used as vehicles for vindictive populism. If the Brexit vote was driven by a desire to punish the elite, the thought process underlying it is even more suspect than most of us first thought.
 
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:14 am

ElPistolero wrote:
Neither are pilots or doctors, but you wouldn't want your plane flown/surgery conducted by the populist choice rather than the trained professional, would you?

No, but those professionals do not have by reason of a popular vote the authority to legislate all aspects of our lives, we ensure that they have to pass test, meet minimum standards and have professional bodies who oversee and review their actions, I guess periodic elections serve a similar purpose?

If the population lack the knowledge and intelligence to understand complex issues of how the EU works then it is the job of the politicians and civil servants to try even harder to educate them, without that you may as well have a dictatorship or at a minimum not have periodic elections, how could the population evaluate two candidates, 17+ million is an awful lot of people especially when a large number of them are also university graduates, does put the UK education system under the spotlight.

Of course we also have two opposing views, one is that an educated consumer is the best consumer, the other is that if you can keep the population dumb and ignorant you can rule them better.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:18 am

par13del wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
Neither are pilots or doctors, but you wouldn't want your plane flown/surgery conducted by the populist choice rather than the trained professional, would you?

No, but those professionals do not have by reason of a popular vote the authority to legislate all aspects of our lives, we ensure that they have to pass test, meet minimum standards and have professional bodies who oversee and review their actions, I guess periodic elections serve a similar purpose?

If the population lack the knowledge and intelligence to understand complex issues of how the EU works then it is the job of the politicians and civil servants to try even harder to educate them, without that you may as well have a dictatorship or at a minimum not have periodic elections, how could the population evaluate two candidates, 17+ million is an awful lot of people especially when a large number of them are also university graduates, does put the UK education system under the spotlight.

Of course we also have two opposing views, one is that an educated consumer is the best consumer, the other is that if you can keep the population dumb and ignorant you can rule them better.


If we're talking about civil servants, the point remains: they are trained professionals and they have clear influence (for better or worse) on regulations that affect every aspect of our lives. The implicit assumption is that they actually understand the fields they work in.

That aside, politicians/civil servants etc can try to explain reality as much as they want, but if the audience doesn't want to believe it, or doesn't have the capacity to understand it, you're going to hit a brick wall every single time. If one could just override a persons intellectual limitations by trying harder to teach them, we would have a lot more technically skilled people in this world.

That said, elected leaders form only one part of Government, not the entirety of it. Parliamentary democracies also have unelected checks and balances (independent judiciary aka "enemies of the people", upper houses like the House of Lords etc). They exist to temper these outbursts of poorly thought out populism. Their existence doesn't make their country a dictatorship. They just make sure poorly thought out decisions are scrutinized and, if necessary, returned for more careful consideration.

As for education, I think it's reasonably obvious now that, by and large, the more educated people voted against Brexit, while the less-educated voted for it. But I accept that this is a general statement. So I'll say this: that there are 17+ million people who can make a bad decision at the ballot box is hardly a surprise; our recent history has been dictated by elections that handed power to the wrong party 80 years ago. One imagines that if the people had understood the implications of their vote, they might have voted differently. It's not like no one had identified the implications at the time.

The reality is that even the majority of people can get it very wrong every now and then. The fact that they're the majority doesn't in itself make them right (not that they're ever going to admit they were ever wrong). The onus is on all parts of the government, elected or otherwise, to manage the situation without harming the national interest. I think Phil Hammond and company are doing a fine job at it.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:04 am

par13del wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
Neither are pilots or doctors, but you wouldn't want your plane flown/surgery conducted by the populist choice rather than the trained professional, would you?

No, but those professionals do not have by reason of a popular vote the authority to legislate all aspects of our lives, we ensure that they have to pass test, meet minimum standards and have professional bodies who oversee and review their actions, I guess periodic elections serve a similar purpose?

If the population lack the knowledge and intelligence to understand complex issues of how the EU works then it is the job of the politicians and civil servants to try even harder to educate them, without that you may as well have a dictatorship or at a minimum not have periodic elections, how could the population evaluate two candidates, 17+ million is an awful lot of people especially when a large number of them are also university graduates, does put the UK education system under the spotlight.

Of course we also have two opposing views, one is that an educated consumer is the best consumer, the other is that if you can keep the population dumb and ignorant you can rule them better.


I dare say that the Exit side surely dropped a few risks and problems form their campaign. And that is the problem, nobody ever left the EU and one side said it will be easy and the UK will save lots of money, while discrediting the other side and fear mongers. Both side were led by known politicians. Imho the general population has little chance if one side lies to them in such decisions. Apart from the fact that it was crazy to have a referendum before you had a deal with the EU. It is like if your family is looking at a new car and the wife points out that you do not actually have the money, while you say that you will surely achieve 40% discount and you stick by the decision even when it becomes obvious that you will get 15% discount at best.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:06 am

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Does China give someone else control over their monetary policy?


Probably less then the UK does, because monetary policy is in the hand of your government owned, but independent of it, central bank. I don´t see how you, as the UK electorate, have more influence on the UK monetary policy than about the EUROs.

best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:20 am

seahawk wrote:
Both side were led by known politicians.

In my opinion, the foundation of the entire problem.
DC put himself in the position to have to offer a referendum, mistake number one.
Mistake number two was putting up a referendum question which gave the people no choice.
Only thing he did right after that was to resign, as neither he nor anyone in the political establishment had any plans whatsoever for leave as the outcome.
I think the third mistake was that the government did not "resign" along with him, an election then would have seen a government elected to govern over the Brexit result.
Unfortunately, those who took over after DC decided to fudge along with something they did not want, did not vote for and had no stomach for the difficult negotiations on the way, by the time they realized that reality and called a snap election, the waters were already muddied,and even though the party got a large number of votes - I think the highest ever - the climate was already toxic and they lost seats in strategic areas, hence the grid lock that now exist.

Maybe the current scandals will see TM gone as leader in short order, if so, one can only hope that they do not repeat the same mistake and try to carry on. Call an election immediately, we know Labour will campaign on Remain and nationalization of infrastructure and a lot of free stuff, Tory patform will depend on who becomes the leader.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:05 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Does China give someone else control over their monetary policy?


Probably less then the UK does, because monetary policy is in the hand of your government owned, but independent of it, central bank. I don´t see how you, as the UK electorate, have more influence on the UK monetary policy than about the EUROs.

best regards
Thomas


The governor of the bank is appointed by the Prime Minister (well, the Monarch but on the advice of the PM). We elect the MPs to parliament who will form a government, their leader will be the PM. There's also nothing to stop the government renationalising the BoE.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:33 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
There's also nothing to stop the government renationalising the BoE.


Re-nationalize? It is nationalized since 1946 iirc and the Bank of England seems to be very adamant about being structurally very independent, mentioning it 10 times in a prominently featured PDF: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/Do ... ration.pdf

best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:20 pm

Well we can be sure they would like it to remain the way it is, unfortunately, their independence is via political will, not must statues in law.

As for monetary policy, one of the tools that was not available to Greece during its financial crisis was the devaluation of its currency.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:42 pm

Eu now says that UK need to agree to a brexit bill within 2 weeks or no trade negoziations this year;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 47741.html
 
olle
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:44 pm

I think this thread missing some aspects;

1. What will UK look like let say 2040? What will be the relations with EU, old colonies and USA?
2. What will the Eu look like 2040 without UK? Superstate? EU army?
3. What will be the relations between UK and EU in 2040?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:44 pm

par13del wrote:
As for monetary policy, one of the tools that was not available to Greece during its financial crisis was the devaluation of its currency.


common misconception, a) even with its own currency Greece couldn´t devaluate its own currency, the Greek central bank could have taken steps to make the currency less attractive and hope the market would devaluate it, but the government could not and b) devaluating ones currency is exactly the same as lowering wages by the same percentage, the effect is just more long term and much better hidden from people noticing. But you do know the effect from filling up your car, where the Gas price traces the USD exchange rate (i.e. increased or decreased value of your local currency compared to the USD) just as much as the Oil price itself.

Cutting pay is just much less popular compared to devaluating currency, which has somehow been spun into something positive.

best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:56 pm

olle wrote:
Eu now says that UK need to agree to a brexit bill within 2 weeks or no trade negoziations this year;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 47741.html


I guess the EU team is fed up with constructive ambiguity that is really just ambiguity :)
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:08 pm

Probably best for all parties if trade talks are pushed to next year, the sex scandal is now front and center, it may affect the current balance of power, and if that happens, a new government may not be far off, so the current government may not have the authority or will to make concessions prior to the end of the year.
Besides, they started earlier this year and essentially got nowhere, so next two weeks is a stronger deadline than Mar-2019?

Let's see how much additional funds TM is willing to give, I suspect no one will be happy.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:11 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
common misconception, a) even with its own currency Greece couldn´t devaluate its own currency, the Greek central bank could have taken steps to make the currency less attractive and hope the market would devaluate it, but the government could not and b) devaluating ones currency is exactly the same as lowering wages by the same percentage, the effect is just more long term and much better hidden from people noticing. But you do know the effect from filling up your car, where the Gas price traces the USD exchange rate (i.e. increased or decreased value of your local currency compared to the USD) just as much as the Oil price itself.

Cutting pay is just much less popular compared to devaluating currency, which has somehow been spun into something positive.

best regards
Thomas

All we are saying is that it is an option not available to someone who is in the Euro, the question was how much control one has over their currency, that is one less item.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:12 pm

Anyway the money is not the main problem. The border in Ireland with faeries and leprechauns as custom agents is by far the hardest to solve I guess
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:40 pm

The border can potentially see the TM government fall and money is also a big issue there, if the UK chooses to pay the EU X+2 for border taxes while only X passes through who is to complain? I suspect trade more than ease of people crossing the border is most important.
The simple solution is that some type of border has to be put in place, technology alone will not suffice. NI does not have the majority to unite with the south, and neither the UK nor NI will allow Brexit to be used by the south to re-unite the island, so what to do?
I suspect the slim majority that NI has given TM government will be emotional, they have already killed one solution which is a North Sea Border.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:54 am

So now we may have the first need for the EU army.
Let's see if any of the politicians propose a referendum for NI to have a hard border with the south. A border in the sea as the EU officials state means NI staying in the EU as common market access for all intents and purposes means in the EU.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... arket.html
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:01 pm

Just curious why do you see the need for an EU army here? If you read tabloids, you easily forget that UK and RoI were in the EU, with a physical border, 25 years before the GFA,....

Sadly, that was not all that had been lost. On Northern Ireland, there had been "frank discussions about some of the big challenges around the border" but, while Barnier had restated that "the unique situation on the island of Ireland requires specific solutions", Davis was still arguing that the issue must be concluded "in the context of the future relationship".

In other words, he hasn't changed his position from wanting the border solution bundled in with the general trade agreement – something Brussels has already said cannot happen.

But now it was Davis's turn to ramp up the pressure. "We respect the European Union desire to protect the legal order of the Single Market and Customs Union", he said, "But that cannot come at cost to the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom". Any solution, he declared, "cannot amount to creating a new border inside our United Kingdom".

That, unequivocally, rules out the "wet border" between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, which effectively means that we are looking at a hard border with the Republic. And, even if the money is settled, that could be the deal breaker. It could certainly give rise to Ireland blocking in December any approval to move to phase two.


What Davis mean is; I know I spread BS but the DUP got my government by the balls.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:41 pm

That position is ridiculous, at the end of the day crossing between NI and the rest of the UK is a hassle anyway, you take either a boat or a plane, where you must already show ID if there is any kind of security involved.

Meanwhile the internal border in Ireland doesn't physically exist.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:01 pm

Olddog wrote:
Just curious why do you see the need for an EU army here? If you read tabloids, you easily forget that UK and RoI were in the EU, with a physical border, 25 years before the GFA,....

....and there was a conflict taking place. Like the breakup of Yugoslavia, the issue between Protestants and Catholics predates the EU, if the EU can bring them together everyone will be happy and all will be well with the world. The Good Friday agreement was meant to create peace and harmony, so far some in Ireland - north and south - seem to think that a hard border will re-create hostilities.
If Common Market is the only way to avoid a hard border between north and south and that is enforced without major input by the population there could be trouble.
As always pointed out, access to the common market means the 4 pillars, if the UK is out but NI is in, effective control falls under the EU, no UK courts or UK laws which do not conflict or give way to EU laws.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:09 pm

Olddog wrote:
What Davis mean is; I know I spread BS but the DUP got my government by the balls.

Well, the EU and Spain already have an agreement on Gibraltar who is also by some UK standards and integral part of the UK, so the difference is?????

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