Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:59 pm

BTW, you should look at the payment Norway or Switzerland are willing to make each year for an access to the SM. Ask yourself, is that market has no value, why theses countries pay for it ?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:29 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Or do you think Seat would be suddenly debt and commitment free if Volkswagen sold it to Ford?

best regards
Thomas


A real example just happened, GM sold Opel to PSA and that only reduced the amount of money Opel were costing them, they had to pay a lot for pensions.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:26 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
The EU was not involved in the Brexit decision by the UK. And that makes it simply the UK business and problem. The EU has an obligation towards the people still having EU citizenship in 2020, but none whatsoever towards those that leave.
best regards
Thomas

Why would the EU be involved in the Brexit decision, unless you are saying that once someone joins the EU they cannot leave, if so then I understand the trend of thought.
On the obligation part, even after leaving the contention is that the UK must continue to meet the obligations that it made as a member, so obligations made as a member continues for life regardless of whether one remains a member of the group or not, however, the obligations that the group made to you ceases as soon as you leave the group.
Ok, I may not agree but I am getting a better understanding of the mindset surrounding the issue.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:32 pm

Olddog wrote:
BTW, you should look at the payment Norway or Switzerland are willing to make each year for an access to the SM. Ask yourself, is that market has no value, why theses countries pay for it ?

Norway and Switzerland access to the single market was known to the UK parliament when they decided on the referendum question, they deliberately chose not to give the people those as options, my opinion is that they chose In or Out because they knew Out would never win, hence the mess you have now of them trying to finds ways to remain while being out.

No one has said that the single market has no value, what I was saying in my post is if the UK pays the cost that is being demanded for the divorce bill - upwards of 100 billion at the new low end - is their access to that market at a financial worth that much money in the short term and how many years would it take for the UK to recoup those funds before seeing a net positive effect on the UK economy.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:36 pm

par13del wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
The EU was not involved in the Brexit decision by the UK. And that makes it simply the UK business and problem. The EU has an obligation towards the people still having EU citizenship in 2020, but none whatsoever towards those that leave.
best regards
Thomas

Why would the EU be involved in the Brexit decision, unless you are saying that once someone joins the EU they cannot leave, if so then I understand the trend of thought.


You are overthinking it. The EU was not involved = their decission, their problem. Or in longer, whatever burden this means to all current EU members, the one causing it by sovereign decision, should preferably sovereignly carry that burden in as far as can be arranged.

Best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:54 pm

In the end it is a British problem. The risk of a divorce bill or the possibility to be forced to pay for the EU, even after leaving, have not been discussed prior to the vote. In the end Britain still thinks that the EU has to find a way that is acceptable to the UK, but after triggering Article 50 - they don´t.

And maybe the whole vote smells a bit: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brita ... SKBN1D157I
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:31 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
You are overthinking it. The EU was not involved = their decission, their problem. Or in longer, whatever burden this means to all current EU members, the one causing it by sovereign decision, should preferably sovereignly carry that burden in as far as can be arranged.

Best regards
Thomas

...and as I said I disagree with that point of view since the obligation was made as a member of the EU not as a sovereign nation, if the agreements are made saying EU in conjunction with the UK it would minimize the foundation of the EU legal system as you would be assigning two responsible bodies, since the UK is bound by the EU laws / courts I'm inclined to believe the agreements / commitments say EU full stop.

As a member the UK was also obligated to contribute to the EU budget, when the budget is renewed in the next couple years, the next 100 years or however long the EU last, is the ex-member still obligated to make budgetary contributions?
I leave out your "as far as can be arranged" since the mantra is that it is a commitment not a commitment that we must negotiate.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:43 pm

seahawk wrote:
In the end it is a British problem. The risk of a divorce bill or the possibility to be forced to pay for the EU, even after leaving, have not been discussed prior to the vote. In the end Britain still thinks that the EU has to find a way that is acceptable to the UK, but after triggering Article 50 - they don´t.

To me the divorce bill is all about trade since Article 50 does not mandate any payment to leave, the settlement of the bill before trade appears to mean something more than just the prorated amount of the UK budget contribution up to the leave date.

The issue appears to be how much money the UK is willing to pay the EU for some new form of trade agreement which is non-member, non-Norway, non-Swiss.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:48 pm

seahawk wrote:
And maybe the whole vote smells a bit: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brita ... SKBN1D157I

...well if the Russians were able to get 17+ million Brits to vote leave that would be understandable.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:01 pm

Aesma wrote:

A real example just happened, GM sold Opel to PSA and that only reduced the amount of money Opel were costing them, they had to pay a lot for pensions.

Companies and governments have been abusing their constituents for decades when it comes to pensions, especially where they are mandatory and defined benefits.
In almost all cases the funds are under-funded, when one considers the fundamentals of the contributions and very few if any saying that their investments have failed one gets the picture that rather than making the reciprocal contributions they just use those obligations to reduce their payroll with paper records.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:12 pm

par13del wrote:
seahawk wrote:
In the end it is a British problem. The risk of a divorce bill or the possibility to be forced to pay for the EU, even after leaving, have not been discussed prior to the vote. In the end Britain still thinks that the EU has to find a way that is acceptable to the UK, but after triggering Article 50 - they don´t.

To me the divorce bill is all about trade since Article 50 does not mandate any payment to leave, the settlement of the bill before trade appears to mean something more than just the prorated amount of the UK budget contribution up to the leave date.

The issue appears to be how much money the UK is willing to pay the EU for some new form of trade agreement which is non-member, non-Norway, non-Swiss.


Article 50 says:

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.


In the end it means, that arrangements (aka payments) will take into account the future relationship with the EU. Paragraph 3 only means that a leaving country is no longer bound by the Lisbon treaty after 2 years, if the EU and the country can not achieve an acceptable arrangement, it does not state that no arrangement has to be found nevertheless.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:21 pm

Brexit is running out of time. I don't think there are enough negotiators in all of the various realms to come up with agreements with the EU and the rest of the world by Brexit date. So either hard Brexit without agreements, or continue as is for another two years (?). I suspect betting would be on the later. And of course May would announce and promise there will be no further extensions. Further extensions will become more likely until all of this settles down to something approaching a non-event.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:53 pm

I think if the UK asked to take back article 50 it could happen. But asking for an extension, I'm not so sure.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:10 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Brexit is running out of time. I don't think there are enough negotiators in all of the various realms to come up with agreements with the EU and the rest of the world by Brexit date.

At this stage time is only running out on the UK negotiations with the EU in terms of trade, the rest of the world cannot start until the UK is no longer a member or voluntarily still under EU control.

As for whether the UK can take back the Article 50 letter without a new vote just an act of parliament, that would turn their system on its head, but just as no one expected 17+ million to vote out, stranger things have happened.
Requesting an extension of the two year deadline they can do so at any time, unfortunately for those pushing this option, it is entirely up to all 27 members and its back to the negotiating table to see what they will demand for such an extension, and one can expect that during that period the UK will still be unable to commence working on its life outside of the EU.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:48 pm

par13del wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Brexit is running out of time. I don't think there are enough negotiators in all of the various realms to come up with agreements with the EU and the rest of the world by Brexit date.

At this stage time is only running out on the UK negotiations with the EU in terms of trade, the rest of the world cannot start until the UK is no longer a member or voluntarily still under EU control.

As for whether the UK can take back the Article 50 letter without a new vote just an act of parliament, that would turn their system on its head, but just as no one expected 17+ million to vote out, stranger things have happened.
Requesting an extension of the two year deadline they can do so at any time, unfortunately for those pushing this option, it is entirely up to all 27 members and its back to the negotiating table to see what they will demand for such an extension, and one can expect that during that period the UK will still be unable to commence working on its life outside of the EU.


Revoking the Article 50 letter is also up to the remaining 27 to accept it, if the EU would accept that route, I think some of the perks the UK enjoyed would be gone.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:34 pm

The best thing the UK can do, is say "Goodbye, leave us alone" end the negotiations and cut all ties to the EU. Then start on working on trade deals with other countries.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:48 pm

seahawk wrote:
The best thing the UK can do, is say "Goodbye, leave us alone" end the negotiations and cut all ties to the EU. Then start on working on trade deals with other countries.


That's the best thing for you not the UK.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:03 am

It is at least better than a longer period of uncertainty and better than a compromise that is despised in the UK the day it is signed.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:42 am

Whatever the outcome, it will be despised in the UK. Either with the hardliners on both sides, with the general public, with everybody. For the UK the EU will always be the biggest trade partner, because of geography, simple as that. So a trade deal with the EU should be top of their agenda. Suggesting that the UK should just have a hard Brexit means you wish them a very stiff recession, mass unemployment before they are back on their feet.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:57 am

Booker in his column today deals with one of the consequences of leaving the Single Market. The problem, he says, is that, by choosing to leave not just the EU but also the wider European Economic Area (EEA), we become to the EU a "third country".

As Ryanair explained to a Lords committee back in March, the "traffic rights underpinning the bulk of air traffic to and from the UK will no longer exist". To fly anywhere outside the UK, we will have to negotiate more than 100 complex bilateral agreements with other countries.

Also, as we pointed out last week, our airlines must also apply to the EU to become a "third country operator". But they can only do this once we have left the EU; and by a devilish Catch-22 in the rules, it then takes 30 days before they can be approved to allow us to fly again.

All of this, says Booker, will be hard enough to negotiate if we do get a deal. With Theresa May's "no deal", forget it. But when the Commons Transport committee recently interviewed luminaries from the airline industry, none of it got mentioned.

Like David Davis, the chief executives of British Airways and Heathrow merely assured MPs in effect that somehow everything will be "all right on the night". No one present seemed to have the faintest idea of just what a disaster we could be heading for. But, yet again, if only we had chosen to stay in the EEA, none of these problems would arise.

Predictably, Booker's piece attracts its usual collection of naysayers, unable or unwilling to address the reality of the consequences of this line of action. But what makes their ritual denial all the more ironic is an article yesterday in the Telegraph which more or less endorses what Booker has to say.

In the article, we are treated to the warnings of "three separate EU sources in both Brussels and a leading EU capital" to the effect that the British government is living in "fantasy land" if it believes that it can an amicable break-up with the EU in the event of a "basic’ Brexit".

Senior EU officials and diplomats are saying that British expectations of a "no-deal, deal" have failed to understand the ramifications of the UK pulling out Europe without paying its bills.

Although David Davis believes the EU would do a "basic" (or "bare bones") agreement in the "very, very improbable" event that a deal proved beyond the two sides, thereby averting the worst-case scenario where we leave with no agreement at all. "Whatever happens we will have a basic deal without the bits we really want", Davis said.

However the European officials are "adamant" that if the UK exits the EU without a deal – leaving an immediate €20 billion black hole in the EU's seven-year budget framework – there will be no appetite to engineer a soft landing for the UK.

In fact, the words used by a senior EU diplomat leave no room for optimism. "This is pure fantasy", he says. "The idea of a 'no-deal deal' completely fails to understand the EU, or the fury that would result if the British leave without paying their bills". He adds: "At that point, the EU wouldn't be looking to make a parachute for the UK, it will only be working out how to cut strings".

Then, we are told, a second Brussels-based source was equally clear. "If things go really sour the 27 will be in no mood to try to collate a number of last-minute mini emergency deals for 'free'. We’ll be busy enough trying to sort out the budget fallout".

This fits entirely with the observations of Sir Ivan Rogers and kicks into touch the fatuous idea that the UK negotiating team can walk away from Brussels on the Friday, having closed the book the Article 50 negotiations, and then turn up on the Monday morning bright-eyed and bushy-tailed ready to discuss a series of mini-deals – including a comprehensive air services agreement.

This is a fiction created by the "Ultras" who originally thought they could rely on "WTO rules", only to find that there were huge areas not covered. In an attempt to fill in the gaps, the "no dealers" thus invented the concepts of the "unmanaged" and "managed" no-deal, the latter having been embraced by the Department for Exiting the European Union.

In the "unmanaged" scenario, which the Telegraph reminds us was recently described as a "bad-tempered" Brexit by Philip Hammond, the UK "would crash out of the EU with no deal whatsoever, causing significant initial disruption over trade, aviation, data-sharing" – and much else.


From http://eureferendum.com/
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:09 pm

Which is one of the reasons why a hard Brexit is a viable option. If the EU were only talking about the UK portion of the 7 year budget no one would bat an eye, everyone accepts that there is responsibility there, on the hardest level a prorated amount.
The new French president mentioned over 40+ billion by December 2017, others are saying 100+ billion, a question no one is asking is how hard or soft the UK would land if they made such payments to the EU.
The UK is a pimple on the rear end of an elephant in terms of trade value, the EU is not dissolving they are the ongoing entity. The UK will need all its resources as it tries to make it on its own, in the short term they will need large domestic spending to maintain their economy while trade deals with non-EU nations are worked out and the benefits of such start filtering down, massive payments to the EU for temporary access while being unable to pursue third party deals only prolongs the inevitable while needed resources are drained.
The transition period will be used by a lot of companies to wind down UK operations, the UK paying massive funds to the EU will not change that, I suspect even if a change of heart comes about, they will still go as no other country has ever shown a hint of giving a vote on leaving the EU, so the UK will henceforth be regarded as less stable.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:16 pm

Over the last ten years the UK deficit was on average 100 billion pounds a year. So a 100 billion euros bill, while a large sum by any measure, is not the end of the world.

A couple years of the UK without any deal will probably cost much more than that.

Furthermore not paying the bill will not happen, regardless of the kind of Brexit. Someone has mentioned that the UK has strong laws protecting shareholders, well the same kind of laws can be used to take control of UK assets, impose taxes higher than "WTO rules", etc., until the bill is covered.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:08 pm

Yeah but that cuts both ways, no one is talking about refunding the UK for any facilities etc. that they built in EU countries, so that can be a slippery slope.
I am curious why one of the potential primary beneficiaries of Brexit is not doing more, I suspect they are being constrained by Brussels.
Ireland became a member of the PIGS in no small part to EU and UK regulations, especially the mantra of tax havens, their economy is rebounding but Brexit has the potential to see a boom in Ireland.
Yes there are those in the north and south who see this as an option to get the Protestant north under the fold of the Catholic south, the divide pre-dates the EU and will continue long after, hopefully they do not agree to pay tax to avoid a hard border. If the UK economy shrinks as expected, they may be paying more that the product (border taxes) are generating.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:27 pm

I think you queen can pay that bill with just the money hidden in the Caimans islands :)

Or none is talking about the "Paradise Papers" in the UK ?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:30 pm

Unfortunately as Cayman is still a colony they got hit just as hard as Ireland, so.....
The x-files conspiracy fan that I am, whose taking bets that the sex scandals now blazing across the UK will be used to bring the government down, have another snap election and create even more mess, so far the number of Tory MP's is greater than Labour but it seems as if politically they were equal opportunity abusers.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:11 am

par13del wrote:
Yeah but that cuts both ways, no one is talking about refunding the UK for any facilities etc. that they built in EU countries, so that can be a slippery slope.


That is simple, it is a one sided withdrawal by the UK. Nobody in the EU is denying the UK the right to use the facilities or to be part of the organisations running them.

It must be clear that this is not the EU throwing the UK out, or the UK and the EU agreeing that it would be best to part ways, it is the UK deciding to leave. You do not get a compensation if you decide that you do not want to use a facility.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:13 am

seahawk wrote:
You do not get a compensation if you decide that you do not want to use a facility.

....nor do you continue to pay dues for and to a club that you voluntarily decide to leave, but as I said earlier, I disagree with the principle which seems to be the mantra, so we will have to agree to disagree.
I accept there are two type of fees, those for members and those who walk in off the street, my squash club is like that and I fully understand that, but the bills that are presently being discussed have nothing whatsoever to do with access after the divorce.
I guess for the future there should be a pre-nup to avoid all the mess.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:58 am

I can only recommend this pdf: http://www.cer.eu/sites/default/files/p ... 3feb17.pdf

It is the best overview of the problem I have seen and it shows the arguments for both sides and also highlights some problems in the British position, as the EU position is very similar to the position of the Uk treasury in the run-up to the Scottish independence vote.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:05 pm

par13del wrote:
....nor do you continue to pay dues for and to a club that you voluntarily decide to leave, but as I said earlier, I disagree with the principle which seems to be the mantra, so we will have to agree to disagree.
I accept there are two type of fees, those for members and those who walk in off the street, my squash club is like that and I fully understand that, but the bills that are presently being discussed have nothing whatsoever to do with access after the divorce.
I guess for the future there should be a pre-nup to avoid all the mess.


I think that the EU does not care what you agree or not. As the EU is the Gorilla in the room, it will fix the rules. If you don't agree and decide to leave like that, no problem: you will pay later when you will try to make trade deals....
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:15 pm

Olddog wrote:
par13del wrote:
....nor do you continue to pay dues for and to a club that you voluntarily decide to leave, but as I said earlier, I disagree with the principle which seems to be the mantra, so we will have to agree to disagree.
I accept there are two type of fees, those for members and those who walk in off the street, my squash club is like that and I fully understand that, but the bills that are presently being discussed have nothing whatsoever to do with access after the divorce.
I guess for the future there should be a pre-nup to avoid all the mess.


I think that the EU does not care what you agree or not. As the EU is the Gorilla in the room, it will fix the rules. If you don't agree and decide to leave like that, no problem: you will pay later when you will try to make trade deals....


Exactly. It is basically a good practice for future trade negotiations to come, as the UK will be the junior in those rooms as well.

best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:50 pm

https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/9275 ... wsrc%5Etfw


While consensus in London seems to assume trade talks kick off in December, senior EU officials now consider this, on balance, unlikely

Brussels monitors UK media & ministers' statements - they can see PM has been backtracking since Florence - ie backtracking to cliff-edge

As for money, if May insists she can't make any further commitments, EU will not trigger trade talks in December. It's that simple

EU went as far as it could in Oct. Nobody's asking for precise figure, just specific commitments. €60bn the ballpark figure

UK Government knows all this, incidentally. They're in denial about it. But what happens if they test EU anyway

All of this means, we're heading for crisis (and economic shock) very soon - December or January - unless UK comes to its senses

EU fears May, when rebuffed in Dec through her intransigence, will retreat to comforting insanity of Redwood/Mogg Brexit utopia.

So senior EU officials now putting chances of no-deal at over 50%, and making detailed impact assessments about what it means for EU

EU officials don't think UK Gov working in national interest; worse, believe May & Davis don't understand process, or what no-deal means

EU unsure whether civil servants not telling ministers truth, or if ministers just aren't listening- but UK incompetence is mystifying
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:32 pm

The UK government is a Kindergarten, OMG. They need to leave "Britannia rules the waves"-dogma behind and move into reality. Just a few lines, but if you look at the picture painted like that, amazing, just amazing.

Apparently, the EU officials care more about ordinary Brittians than the UK May and the rest of the puppet-show in Westminster.

Ordinary Brittians must realize this, don't they? Were are the mass protest? This is just plane crazy............
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:57 pm

Olddog wrote:
I think that the EU does not care what you agree or not. As the EU is the Gorilla in the room, it will fix the rules. If you don't agree and decide to leave like that, no problem: you will pay later when you will try to make trade deals....

Which was the reason why I asked the question earlier as in how much non-EU countries paid to trade with the EU, since this is a pay to trade and not a penalty to leave the EU.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:37 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The UK government is a Kindergarten, OMG. They need to leave "Britannia rules the waves"-dogma behind and move into reality. Just a few lines, but if you look at the picture painted like that, amazing, just amazing.

Apparently, the EU officials care more about ordinary Brittians than the UK May and the rest of the puppet-show in Westminster.

Ordinary Brittians must realize this, don't they? Were are the mass protest? This is just plane crazy............

The UK abandoned the Commonwealth in terms of trade decades ago, in some circles it was seen as being more European, in recent times, they have also used the cover of the EU to say what they could do and not do. At present, this is not an elected government like POTUS saying we will make the UK great again, this is a UK government dominated by Remainer's who have the task of implementing the result of a vote which no one who granted it expected to loose.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:55 am

None pay to trade with the EU. The fee is for access to the Single Market and all the perks.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:33 pm

While the UK is arguing in parliament about the infamous 58 "studies", the EU has produced and published since march what they think the impact could be on the EU 27:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/e ... L_STU(2017)595374_EN.pdf
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:56 pm

Well, the US has put its position forward. Wilbur Ross has told the CBI that the UK needs to:

1. take "into account our [Washington’s] commercial interests” while negotiating a trade deal with the EU
2. Avoid "unnecessary" regulatory divergences (based on current EU regulations).
3. Be prepared to address key "hindrances" that the US faces with the EU, including:
- US’ limited or non-existent access to the EU’s standard-setting process
- lack of transparency and a lack of ability to participate in the EU’s regulatory process;
- "limited role of science in assessing risk especially in sanitary and phytosanitary matters”.

He also said "that loss of “passporting”, which allows the UK to sell financial services throughout the EU, could also “become a real barrier in services”. (Not entirely sure what he means there - no services agreement without passporting?)

Finally, he believes bilateral negotiations are better than multilateral negotiations. I believe China has adopted a similar approach on negotiating the South China Sea dispute. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that bilateral negotiations give the larger entity a distinct advantage that is neutralized in multilateral settings (e.g. - negotiations with the EU).

In return, the U.K. will get a "historic trade deal” that would establish the UK as its “number one trading partner worldwide”.

https://www.ft.com/content/92ad2ee0-c30 ... 86f39ef675

So there you have it. Unless I'm completely misreading this, the UK can get an excellent deal from the US. All it has to do is protect US commercial interests during trade negotiations with its biggest trading partner (the EU), potentially open up its standard-setting and regulatory processes to US commercial interests (whatever happened to "take back control"?), and accept that the (often questionable) "science" put forth by US corporations needs to be factored into decisions.

Strikes me as antithetical to the Brexit 'sovereignty' objective, but I'm sure our resident Brexiteers will enlighten us about how the inclusion of US interests in U.K. trade negotiations, regulations and standard-setting processes actually strengthens the UK's sovereignty.

Good luck.
 
UltimoTiger777
Posts: 307
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 5:19 pm

Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:36 pm

Actually I wasn't all that in favour of signing some super liberal trade deal with the US anyway.

Although I do believe the scare stories over chlorinated chicken have been rather exaggerated haven't they?
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1316
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:09 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
Actually I wasn't all that in favour of signing some super liberal trade deal with the US anyway.

Although I do believe the scare stories over chlorinated chicken have been rather exaggerated haven't they?


I'm missing the nuance here - what is the difference between a super liberal trade deal and a free trade agreement? I recall the opportunity to negotiate more of the latter being characterized as a positive by the Brexit brigade. Is that no longer an objective?

On chlorinated chicken, as I understood it, the issue is more about the economic implications of importing cheaper to produce chlorinated chicken (courtesy of less stringent processing hygiene standards) and the resulting pressure on UK farmers to resort to similar means to cut costs (thereby lowering standards/becoming non-compliant with other markets like the EU), rather than about the safety associated with consuming the chicken. Personally, I'm more wary of the hormone- and antibiotic-heavy beef/dairy produced in the US than I am of chlorinated chicken. Not sure what the current EU standards are on that.

On a larger note, aligning with the US the way Ross describes it looks fraught with risk; the U.K. is unlikely to ever have as much influence in DC as it did as an EU member in Brussels. The suggested approach practically guarantees glorified vassal status. After all, if the US wants US commercial interests protected in UK negotiations with the EU, one suspects it would demand a similar UK trade approach towards China, India and the rest of the world.

Granted, I'm rather enjoying how the Daily Fail and the Telegraph conveniently ignore US demands while playing up the 'FTA can be wrapped up quickly - big boost for Brexit' angle. Are their writers, editors and readers really too dense to understand the implications of accepting the US approach? Is it reflective of the Brexit mindset?
 
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par13del
Posts: 7347
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:53 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
I'm missing the nuance here - what is the difference between a super liberal trade deal and a free trade agreement? I recall the opportunity to negotiate more of the latter being characterized as a positive by the Brexit brigade. Is that no longer an objective?

So you are saying that the UK and the USA have already signed a trade deal in violation of the UK's membership in the EU.....or are you saying that the USA has set out its position and it is now up to the UK to set out theirs?

One should also recall that it previously was the stated position of the USA State Dept. and other professionals along with the then POTUS that the UK remain in the EU, setting out these "parameters" now when the UK government is looking at a multi-year transition period in which the UK will not be allowed to negotiate trade deals with non-EU countries aids the process how... pile on more pressure to stay?

Two facts are known, one is that Article 50 was filed and is running, the second is that the UK's relationship with the EU has forever changed, regardless of whether they re-enter immediately after Mar-2019 or shortly thereafter, all the so called "specials" that the UK presently enjoys are done done done.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1316
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:26 pm

par13del wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
I'm missing the nuance here - what is the difference between a super liberal trade deal and a free trade agreement? I recall the opportunity to negotiate more of the latter being characterized as a positive by the Brexit brigade. Is that no longer an objective?

So you are saying that the UK and the USA have already signed a trade deal in violation of the UK's membership in the EU.....or are you saying that the USA has set out its position and it is now up to the UK to set out theirs?

One should also recall that it previously was the stated position of the USA State Dept. and other professionals along with the then POTUS that the UK remain in the EU, setting out these "parameters" now when the UK government is looking at a multi-year transition period in which the UK will not be allowed to negotiate trade deals with non-EU countries aids the process how... pile on more pressure to stay?

Two facts are known, one is that Article 50 was filed and is running, the second is that the UK's relationship with the EU has forever changed, regardless of whether they re-enter immediately after Mar-2019 or shortly thereafter, all the so called "specials" that the UK presently enjoys are done done done.


I think it's pretty clear what I (and the Financial Times) are saying. Literally nothing in my posts suggests that they have already signed a deal. Perhaps you should read the post and attached links before responding.

It's also pretty obvious that this administration prefers Brexit and a fractured EU because it prefers dealing with smaller actors, rather than similar sized ones. Based on what they've said so far, it would take a real leap of logic to argue that they don't want Brexit.
 
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Dutchy
Topic Author
Posts: 3746
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:48 pm

The current May government obviously wants/needs a Brexit. They don't get a fractured EU, no matter what they prefer. Brittian decided to sever itself from the EU and now it has to try to make a deal with the EU, America, Canada, Russia, China, Japan, India, Australia etc. so good luck to them.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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par13del
Posts: 7347
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:23 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
It's also pretty obvious that this administration prefers Brexit and a fractured EU because it prefers dealing with smaller actors, rather than similar sized ones. Based on what they've said so far, it would take a real leap of logic to argue that they don't want Brexit.

One of the primary goals of the EU was to create an large enough financial and trade grouping to counter the USA, USSR and China, so based on the length of time the EU has been around and the closing of the circle with Brexit, if fracture was the USA main aims then nothing with Brexit is going to achieve that aim, indeed the opposite appears to be the case.
Based on the votes that have been held since the Brexit vote, the EU is punching along just fine, so a new strategy has to be found if fracture is the goal.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 7347
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:25 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The current May government obviously wants/needs a Brexit.

I think the jury is still out on that one, but time will tell, the clock is ticking.
 
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Dutchy
Topic Author
Posts: 3746
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit - EU position

Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:38 pm

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The current May government obviously wants/needs a Brexit.

I think the jury is still out on that one, but time will tell, the clock is ticking.


Politically they can't do anything else. They might opt for another referendum if they are "forced" to with massif protest, but otherwise, the Brexit will happen.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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par13del
Posts: 7347
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:06 am

Dutchy wrote:
Politically they can't do anything else. They might opt for another referendum if they are "forced" to with massif protest, but otherwise, the Brexit will happen.

If by Brexit you mean the UK leaving the EU and starting trade relations with the rest of the world....my bet nyet....by Mar-2019 I expect an extension at whatever price with whatever conditions the EU demands, sufficient to ensure the citizens feel the hit and realize the error of their ways - call it a new form of re-education - which will lead to either a new public vote (I doubt that) or a unanimous resolution by parliament authorizing re-entry into the EU.
 
Olddog
Posts: 408
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:30 am

par13del wrote:
One of the primary goals of the EU was to create an large enough financial and trade grouping to counter the USA, USSR and China, so based on the length of time the EU has been around and the closing of the circle with Brexit, if fracture was the USA main aims then nothing with Brexit is going to achieve that aim, indeed the opposite appears to be the case.
Based on the votes that have been held since the Brexit vote, the EU is punching along just fine, so a new strategy has to be found if fracture is the goal.


No. Your vision of the EU goals is totally wrong. You should read what the people who started to build it since the 18/04/1951 said and not the english vision.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 5694
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:40 am

With the generous US offer on the table, the UK can end the talks right now and move on.


*or maybe look back at dealing with the EU and notice it was not that bad...
Last edited by seahawk on Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Olddog
Posts: 408
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:43 am

Thanks for the morning laugh seahawk :)
 
tommy1808
Posts: 6615
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit - EU position

Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:53 am

par13del wrote:
One of the primary goals of the EU was to create an large enough financial and trade grouping to counter the USA, USSR and China,


For someone having a lot of opinions about the EU you know surprisingly little about it. The EU is the pacifist version of mutually assured destruction, the whole idea was to entangle European economies to a point where war becomes pretty much suicide, because it cuts through all the supply chains. That stable peace was supposed to lead to higher overall growth, less resources wasted on rebuilding after wars and more towards a higher standard of living. And so far it worked just fine.

Olddog wrote:
par13del wrote:
One of the primary goals of the EU was to create an large enough financial and trade grouping to counter the USA, USSR and China, so based on the length of time the EU has been around and the closing of the circle with Brexit, if fracture was the USA main aims then nothing with Brexit is going to achieve that aim, indeed the opposite appears to be the case.
Based on the votes that have been held since the Brexit vote, the EU is punching along just fine, so a new strategy has to be found if fracture is the goal.


No. Your vision of the EU goals is totally wrong. You should read what the people who started to build it since the 18/04/1951 said and not the english vision.


:checkmark:

best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.

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