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Aesma
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French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:03 pm

Hello, I'm opening a new thread as the other one is too focussed on Marine Le Pen, who according to polls is not the most likely winner.

There are 11 official candidates, 4 of them are polling around the 20% mark, the 7 others take the rest. 4 candidates so close together 1 week before the election, this has never happened since this system exists (1965). Charles de Gaulle who invented the system wasn't a visionary though, he thought he would be elected triumphally in the first round in 1965 and instead a young François Mitterrand happened and a runoff was necessary.

Official posters of the candidates :

Image

They've been sorted from far left to far right :

Arthaud and Poutou are trotskyists, Cheminade is against finance and wants to colonize Mars, Mélenchon is old school socialist/communist/green, Hamon is the candidate of the Socialist Party and the Greens, Macron is a social-democrat without a party, calling himself both left-wing and right-wing, Lassalle is a centrist that must have drunk too much as you can't understand what he's saying, Fillon is the candidate of the right wing Les Republicains, Dupont-Aignan is a right-wing nationalist, Asselineau is a conspirationist who wants Frexit, and Le Pen is an anti-Islam nationalist.

The four who have a chance to make it to the runoff :

Image

Image

A few weeks ago Macron and Le Pen were at 25-26% each so they lost ground. Fillon was at 17% so he's coming back a bit, and Mélenchon has surged dramatically, helped by the inflight disintegration of Benoît Hamon.

A runoff between Le Pen and Mélenchon, thought unimaginable, is now a real possibility. Both are against the EU and want to control the French currency to devalue it, implement protectionist policies, both are closer to Putin than to the US, etc. Now that such a runoff is a real possibility polls have been conducted and Mélenchon is given as the winner.

Here are the various runoff scenarios :

Image

Interesting times !
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Channex757
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:42 am

Elections with such a wide field are normally hard to predict if the vote fragments between four or five candidates. It makes those second preference votes vital.

It could even throw up a runoff between Le Pen and Melenchon quite easily. The British press has been taking interest in those two as both are anti-EU for different reasons.
 
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Aesma
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:04 pm

François Fillon is suggesting that he could put people from "sens commun" in his government. Sens commun are Catholic fanatics that opposed the marriage for all law, are against abortion, etc. Very "far right" of him, his strategy is clearly to take votes from Marine Le Pen. Marine Le Pen who meanwhile was very quiet during the marriage for all debate and has removed her anti-abortion stance from her platform.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:39 pm

Tightening tightening tightening !

Image
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Dutchy
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:43 pm

Yes it is going to be excited whom will go to the second round.

https://pourquoivotezvous.fr
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Olddog
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:51 pm

I think theses polls underestimate Le pen and overestimate Melenchon. The worst that could happen is a second run with just Le pen and melenchon, meaning the french society is so polarized that the 2 extremists are the only choice allowed. I wonder how many people will just stay home in that case.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:57 pm

A Melenchon / Le Pen runoff could be quite disastrous.
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Dutchy
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:35 pm

Francoflier wrote:
A Melenchon / Le Pen runoff could be quite disastrous.



Yes, then it will be a Frexit, not good for Europe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:42 pm

Terror police in France have arrested two men, aged 23 and 29, in Marseille.
Clement Baur and Mahiedine Merabet, who were known to police as extremists.
Officers seized guns and explosives, and found a video in which the two men pledge allegiance to ISIS, local media reports

They were threatening at least one candidate (François Fillon), maybe others.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:16 pm

Here is a tool, in English, to figure out which candidate is the closest to your political views : https://votecompass.france24.com
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Kiwirob
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:30 am

Dutchy wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
A Melenchon / Le Pen runoff could be quite disastrous.



Yes, then it will be a Frexit, not good for Europe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY


But probably better for France. The EU should have remained small, they let in too many of the wrong countries.
 
Olddog
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:09 am

Yes when we let UK in...
 
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Dutchy
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:34 am

Kiwirob wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
A Melenchon / Le Pen runoff could be quite disastrous.



Yes, then it will be a Frexit, not good for Europe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY


But probably better for France. The EU should have remained small, they let in too many of the wrong countries.


Yes, it went too fast, I agree. And I fail to see how it will be better for France.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Kiwirob
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Re: French presidential election, 1st round April 23 runoff May 7

Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:17 pm

Olddog wrote:
Yes when we let UK in...


I actually believe the EU works for smaller countries, if Norway finally joined I'd be all for it, but the current situation where Norway is practically a member but without a seat at the table doesn't work for anyone. I don't think the EU works for France, especially now the UK left. France will be dominated by the Germans. With three large economies they balanced each other.

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