The UK could have no flights to and from Europe after Brexit, Ryanair warns

Dutchy · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:02 pm

The UK could be left without any flights to and from Europe after Brexit, Ryanair has warned.

The low-cost airline said aviation should be treated as a matter of urgency in Brexit negotiations, as summer schedules for 2019 must be finalised by March next year.

Without a bilateral agreement being struck with the EU, Britain will have to revert to historic WTO regulations that do not cover aviation, Ryanair said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... air-warns/

Clear warning from Ryan Air. I suspect nobody wants it to come to that, but still.

PS Don't know if it should be in the Civil Aviation forum or somewhere else, please feel free to move, if appropriate.

flashmeister · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:05 pm

I think that's quite a bit of hyperbole. Will there be changes? Certainly. The total cessation of flights, though? Absolutely unlikely.

DeSpringbokke · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:12 pm

Project Fear strikes again.

Dutchy · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:13 pm

flashmeister wrote:
I think that's quite a bit of hyperbole. Will there be changes? Certainly. The total cessation of flights, though? Absolutely unlikely.

Think you are right. But it still is a clear warning to the politics to make clear what is going to happen, because it will affect the model of Ryan Air, so they need to be clear what the sets of rules are going to be.

FlyCaledonian · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:16 pm

Is it going to be easy negotiating everything? No.

Will the EU allow there to be no deal on air rights? No. If anything, the EU carriers have just as much to lose from no deal than UK ones. I'm sure the Dutch would not be happy to see KL lose all that UK feed to AMS (and to a lesser extent for the French AF to CDG).

I guess there are going to be scare stories like this for the next two years. The end of the world is nigh says the sandwich board the prophet in the High Street is wearing. I think he was wearing that before 1973, and will be still after 2019!

KarelXWB · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:21 pm

Hyperbole, the EU is not going to to such thing. The EU will work together with Britain just as we do with Switzerland.

Finn350 · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:34 pm

Just entertaining it would really happen: would the solution be to have a connecting flight in Oslo or Zurich (or are UK planes even allowed to fly in EU air space if there is no agreement whatsoever)?

rrapynot · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:34 pm

I think it's likely that there will be a bilateral between the U.K. And the EU, but it's by no means guaranteed. If no agreement is made, there will be no flights.

sk736 · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:54 pm

This has nothing to do with WTO trade agreements. If the UK is unable to come to an open skies agreement with the EU (highly unlikely), then the UK will simply revert to bilateral agreements similar to the many such agreements that exist with current non-EU countries.

KarelXWB · Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:58 pm

sk736 wrote:
This has nothing to do with WTO trade agreements. If the UK is unable to come to an open skies agreement with the EU (highly unlikely), then the UK will simply revert to bilateral agreements similar to the many such agreements that exist with current non-EU countries.

O'Leary being O'Leary is just trying to create some attention.

c933103 · Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:01 pm

Finn350 wrote:
Just entertaining it would really happen: would the solution be to have a connecting flight in Oslo or Zurich (or are UK planes even allowed to fly in EU air space if there is no agreement whatsoever)?

But Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and such are also European Common Aviation Area member... I would assume they might also be affected?
Eurostar could also be suspended?
Perhaps first fly to NI and then take bus to Ireland to fly from it? As it seems like the relationship between NI and Ireland would not be affected by Brexit

IPFreely · Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:01 pm

There were flights between the U.K. and the rest of Europe before the EU existed and there will be flights between the U.K. and the rest of Europe long after the EU is gone. After all, Europe manages to have flights to plenty of other non-EU countries. What a bunch of bollocks from Ryanair.

c933103 · Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:03 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
sk736 wrote:
This has nothing to do with WTO trade agreements. If the UK is unable to come to an open skies agreement with the EU (highly unlikely), then the UK will simply revert to bilateral agreements similar to the many such agreements that exist with current non-EU countries.

O'Leary being O'Leary is just trying to create some attention.

but the talk is about failure to reach any agreement including bilateral?

KarelXWB · Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:06 pm

c933103 wrote:
but the talk is about failure to reach any agreement including bilateral?

Sounds more like a doom scenario, I cannot see that happening. Nobody wins if they fail to reach an agreement.

moo · Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:13 pm

If the EU plays hardball and blocks flights, can the UK restrict overflights and force TATL traffic to go round the UK?

c933103 · Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:13 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
c933103 wrote:
but the talk is about failure to reach any agreement including bilateral?

Sounds more like a doom scenario, I cannot see that happening. Nobody wins if they fail to reach an agreement.

Yes that is a doom scenario that nobody would win and thus that is why Ryanair suggest it should be a priority in negotiation. The quoted text in OP also specificially mentioned this.

Bostrom · Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:47 pm

moo wrote:
If the EU plays hardball and blocks flights, can the UK restrict overflights and force TATL traffic to go round the UK?

I presume they could, but what would stop the EU from doing the same? And create a situation that will be an inconvenience for Lufthansa and Air France/KLM, but a disaster for BA. Although I guess the biggest losers will be Ireland.

Dutchy · Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:56 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
c933103 wrote:
but the talk is about failure to reach any agreement including bilateral?

Sounds more like a doom scenario, I cannot see that happening. Nobody wins if they fail to reach an agreement.

It is a dome scenario and that's why a hard Brexit won't work. But they have engaged into article 50, in two years time that is the fall back scenario if they failed to come to an agreement. And I don't think aviation is top priority. Hopefully they will have a same kind of relationship to the EU as Switzerland or Norway has, the best for everyone, not in the last place UK self.

Bostrom · Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:11 pm

Bostrom wrote:
moo wrote:
If the EU plays hardball and blocks flights, can the UK restrict overflights and force TATL traffic to go round the UK?

I presume they could, but what would stop the EU from doing the same? And create a situation that will be an inconvenience for Lufthansa and Air France/KLM, but a disaster for BA. Although I guess the biggest losers would be Ireland.

pompos · Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:51 pm

It sounds to me that the problem here is not so much on what the actual deal, treaty or agreement is. The issue is that they cannot wait for two years for it to be figured out because the 2019 schedule needs to be finalised within a year.

prebennorholm · Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:22 pm

pompos wrote:
It sounds to me that the problem here is not so much on what the actual deal, treaty or agreement is. The issue is that they cannot wait for two years for it to be figured out because the 2019 schedule needs to be finalised within a year.

You are exactly right. (It took 20 posts to get this thread on track).

It's an enormous puzzle to optimize a business like Ryanair, They have so many bases which must be right sized for each season with planes and crews. It takes a lot of time and effort, and it must all be finished and ready for advance bookings many months in advance on the web.

An agreement must be finalized as soon as possible in order not to seriously disrupt Ryanair and other airlines.

It may be even more urgent for some legacy network carriers. Their long haul business is often heavily dependent upon the right feeder flights, not only from the right destinations, but also correctly timed to fit connections to the long haul flights.

Dutchy · Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:41 pm

prebennorholm wrote:
pompos wrote:
It sounds to me that the problem here is not so much on what the actual deal, treaty or agreement is. The issue is that they cannot wait for two years for it to be figured out because the 2019 schedule needs to be finalised within a year.

You are exactly right. (It took 20 posts to get this thread on track).

It's an enormous puzzle to optimize a business like Ryanair, They have so many bases which must be right sized for each season with planes and crews. It takes a lot of time and effort, and it must all be finished and ready for advance bookings many months in advance on the web.

An agreement must be finalized as soon as possible in order not to seriously disrupt Ryanair and other airlines.

It may be even more urgent for some legacy network carriers. Their long haul business is often heavily dependent upon the right feeder flights, not only from the right destinations, but also correctly timed to fit connections to the long haul flights.

It's not just aviation, production plants will have a longer timeframe then that. You saw it with some car plants - forgot which company - which made the decision to invest in the UK, only after Westminster guaranteed that if there is going to be tariff walls between the UK and the EU for cars, the government is going to pay for those, not the car company.

So for Ryan Air it is one year from now. BA has a real problem, aircraft wise, but also in ownership, if no agreement has been reached. Easyjet will probably move its business to an EU country.

Both parties have a need to agree on some sort of open sky agreement, but there are many subjects and nothing will be decided separately, I think, so one year is very unrealistic. The parties have to come up with some kind of solution before the year is up. And I think that is the massage of Ryan Air, give us clarity in one year, then we can adjust accordingly.

lightsaber · Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:44 pm

sk736 wrote:
This has nothing to do with WTO trade agreements. If the UK is unable to come to an open skies agreement with the EU (highly unlikely), then the UK will simply revert to bilateral agreements similar to the many such agreements that exist with current non-EU countries.

Play a little game theory. We already know from Smoot-Hawley that bilaterals are totally for tat.

What happens to Germany's economy?
France's bond rating?
Greece would be done. No British money, they would be so well done you couldn't stick a fork in 'em.
Spain without British tourists? Really?

The EU had better sign a bilateral.

As others noted, it is hyperbole to even consider no bilateral.

Without a bilateral, airspace is closed off! So we have to start somewhere. No Shipping could enter UK Waters.

It would be bad for the UK.

The economic destruction would be mutual.

Lightsaber

Dutchy · Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:11 am

lightsaber wrote:
sk736 wrote:
This has nothing to do with WTO trade agreements. If the UK is unable to come to an open skies agreement with the EU (highly unlikely), then the UK will simply revert to bilateral agreements similar to the many such agreements that exist with current non-EU countries.

Play a little game theory. We already know from Smoot-Hawley that bilaterals are totally for tat.

What happens to Germany's economy?
France's bond rating?
Greece would be done. No British money, they would be so well done you couldn't stick a fork in 'em.
Spain without British tourists? Really?

The EU had better sign a bilateral.

As others noted, it is hyperbole to even consider no bilateral.

Without a bilateral, airspace is closed off! So we have to start somewhere. No Shipping could enter UK Waters.

It would be bad for the UK.

The economic destruction would be mutual.

Lightsaber

Wanna play game theory, whom do you think has more to loose, 100% of the British economy or 14% of the economy of the EU?

Aesma · Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:12 am

Yes there will be at least an EU-UK bilateral (not country by country).

Dutchy · Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:34 am

Aesma wrote:
Yes there will be at least an EU-UK bilateral (not country by country).

That will not be enough.

lightsaber · Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:59 am

Dutchy wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
sk736 wrote:
This has nothing to do with WTO trade agreements. If the UK is unable to come to an open skies agreement with the EU (highly unlikely), then the UK will simply revert to bilateral agreements similar to the many such agreements that exist with current non-EU countries.

Play a little game theory. We already know from Smoot-Hawley that bilaterals are totally for tat.

What happens to Germany's economy?
France's bond rating?
Greece would be done. No British money, they would be so well done you couldn't stick a fork in 'em.
Spain without British tourists? Really?

The EU had better sign a bilateral.

As others noted, it is hyperbole to even consider no bilateral.

Without a bilateral, airspace is closed off! So we have to start somewhere. No Shipping could enter UK Waters.

It would be bad for the UK.

The economic destruction would be mutual.

Lightsaber

Wanna play game theory, whom do you think has more to loose, 100% of the British economy or 14% of the economy of the EU?

It won't be that disporportionate.

Yes, bad for the UK, but far worse than 14% for the EU as neighbors contract. Your flag country would do well. About the best in the EU from a cuttoff in bilaterals.

The Euro currency wouldn't survive a punitive Brexit. Saner minds will prevail.

Lightsaber

PanHAM · Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:44 am

sk736 wrote:
This has nothing to do with WTO trade agreements. If the UK is unable to come to an open skies agreement with the EU (highly unlikely), then the UK will simply revert to bilateral agreements similar to the many such agreements that exist with current non-EU countries.

That is exactly what the EU is not going to as it would set a prejudice for other fields of negotiation. Britain has to deal with the EU in Brussels. Twentyseven bi-laterals are ruled out. Ryanair has understood that and all others, BA up front, should tell the government that their traffic rights with the EU are in jeopardy if there is no Agreement on March 29,2018

Galwayman · Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:46 am

Ryanair will be fine , it's EasyJet that has the most to lose

Of course if action is taken that damages Ryanair , Irish airspace could possibly become unavailable to U.K. Airlines etc etc enroute to Trumpland , the potential for escalation is just horrific

94717 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:02 am

pompos wrote:
It sounds to me that the problem here is not so much on what the actual deal, treaty or agreement is. The issue is that they cannot wait for two years for it to be figured out because the 2019 schedule needs to be finalised within a year.

Considering schedule for negotiations Ryanair has a point;

2017 will be used for divorce agreements. When there is an agreement that can be accepted by the UK and EU parliaments the negotiations about trade and all other thousands of subject that need to be covered in only around 6-8 month if all agreements shall go thru UK, EU and around 30 other parliaments before 20190329.

UK will want to extend this period but from now on UK is a forreign entity in the other 27 members eye and it is only needed one story of resism violence in UK against for example one Estonian or Polish citizen to make that impossible.

94717 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:09 am

lightsaber wrote:
sk736 wrote:
This has nothing to do with WTO trade agreements. If the UK is unable to come to an open skies agreement with the EU (highly unlikely), then the UK will simply revert to bilateral agreements similar to the many such agreements that exist with current non-EU countries.

Play a little game theory. We already know from Smoot-Hawley that bilaterals are totally for tat.

What happens to Germany's economy?
France's bond rating?
Greece would be done. No British money, they would be so well done you couldn't stick a fork in 'em.
Spain without British tourists? Really?

The EU had better sign a bilateral.

As others noted, it is hyperbole to even consider no bilateral.

Without a bilateral, airspace is closed off! So we have to start somewhere. No Shipping could enter UK Waters.

It would be bad for the UK.

The economic destruction would be mutual.

Lightsaber

I think what many here is missing is that agreements that is normally done in 30 years shall now be done and accepted in 6+6 month, with limited resources. On the EU side also critical matters like immigration, security, border control of schengen area will also need to be handled in paralell.

Second for Germany, France Sweden and the other EU27 the most important is to keep the singel market in one piece. The market of 500 million people is more important for BMW then the market of 60 million.

Of course it will be agreements during this period but how well will they serve? Look up for other hubs like Frankfurt, Paris etc trying to take traffic and business from London as well.

seahawk · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:25 am

Should no agreement be reached, the old bilaterals from the 1950ies/60ies come into effect again.

94717 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:46 am

seahawk wrote:
Should no agreement be reached, the old bilaterals from the 1950ies/60ies come into effect again.

What could that look like?

Andy33 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:52 am

seahawk wrote:
Should no agreement be reached, the old bilaterals from the 1950ies/60ies come into effect again.

But they can't, at least not completely. EU member states Croatia, Slovenia: Czech Republic, Slovakia; Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania simply didn't exist in the 1950s and 1960s, they were part of other states that no longer exist. Then there's Germany, there would be separate bilaterals from that period covering East and West Germany, and Berlin. Now I suspect that there are more recent but still superseded bilaterals in many cases, but probably not all. And it all depends on wording. If the Air Service Agreement that's currently in force included a clause cancelling previous agreements, which it may well have done, then there are no previous agreements to revert to.

It is also official EU policy (which ironically the UK agreed with at the time) that no new air service agreements can be negotiated by member states, it has to be done by the EU as a whole.

225623 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:02 am

I think olle is on the right track. Even if we consider a lot of goodwill on all sites it is a problem of time and ressources. There are not so many people out there that can do these negotiations on a professional level on both UK an EU side. The task is huge and time is limited. Each and every aspect of the cooperation needs to be looked at, with aviation being just a tiny piece of it.
Propbably O'Leary just tries to get his problems high on the priority list. We will see the same from other lobby groups in the next days.

On a side note: I am from Germany and definitly pro EU. What I currently see from British politicians really stresses my patience. These guys seem to demand every benefit they can get from EU without accepting the responsibilities that come with it. Don't know if this is a clever negotiating move. They don't seem to realise that every relationship is a give and take. On the other hand they did the same in the last 30 years, so there is nothing new.

PanHAM · Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:14 am

olle wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Should no agreement be reached, the old bilaterals from the 1950ies/60ies come into effect again.

What could that look like?

Funny. 4 flights each a day between HAM/DUS etc and LHR and a few more between FRA and LHR on some JV shared between LH and BEA, Publishing each others flights in their timetables with LH and BE flight numbers (stands fr british European). It was called "poole flights" back then.

Seriously, These old JV would never hold up to the current traffic Situation with LH having 12 flightsn a day on FRA LHR alone-

ThReaTeN · Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:17 am

Dutchy wrote:
So for Ryan Air it is one year from now. BA has a real problem, aircraft wise, but also in ownership, if no agreement has been reached. Easyjet will probably move its business to an EU country.

How do you mean? What kind of problem with aircraft?

seahawk · Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:19 am

PanHAM wrote:
olle wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Should no agreement be reached, the old bilaterals from the 1950ies/60ies come into effect again.

What could that look like?

Funny. 4 flights each a day between HAM/DUS etc and LHR and a few more between FRA and LHR on some JV shared between LH and BEA, Publishing each others flights in their timetables with LH and BE flight numbers (stands fr british European). It was called "poole flights" back then.

Seriously, These old JV would never hold up to the current traffic Situation with LH having 12 flightsn a day on FRA LHR alone-

Basically this in addition with fares dictated by the agreement. Or in other words not suitable to the modern world in anyway.

Dutchy · Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:42 am

ThReaTeN wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So for Ryan Air it is one year from now. BA has a real problem, aircraft wise, but also in ownership, if no agreement has been reached. Easyjet will probably move its business to an EU country.

How do you mean? What kind of problem with aircraft?

Meant flight wise, sorry, operationally conducting flights between the EU and the UK and over flight rights perhaps.

Jomar777 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:50 am

Sorry to say but, for this to happen, the UK/EU Relationship would have to breakdown to such a point where cooperation of any form would be impossible.
Never mind who wins and/or who loses. Look at Iran, Russia, etc. They have a much worse relationship with the EU and the world and yet, Aeroflot, fro example, is operating out of LHR AND LGW and is member of the Star Alliance. Both Russian and European Flights use their respective airspaces regardless to the fact that the EU has imposed several sanctions to Russia.
There will be several losers (certainly no winners) on this but it is such beyond far fetched that I am surprised Ryanair even considered to come with this statement.
As hard as a Brexit could be, for this to happen you would need something in the level of the UK or the EU pulling out of the UN and NATO to even consider.

Olddog · Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:54 am

seahawk wrote:
Should no agreement be reached, the old bilaterals from the 1950ies/60ies come into effect again.

No because things have changed and these bi-laterals are void since all members states gave their negotiations powers to Brussels. A bilateral between holland and Uk only is not allowed for example.

KL577 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:09 am

ei146 wrote:
I think olle is on the right track. Even if we consider a lot of goodwill on all sites it is a problem of time and ressources. There are not so many people out there that can do these negotiations on a professional level on both UK an EU side.

Yes, and the most distressing part of it is that these guys and girls will spend all their time on a new trade deal that really doesn't solve anything (I mean we have a perfectly fine trade deal with the UK currently; it's called the EU internal market). Neither EU nor UK negotiators have time to spent in the coming years on new meaningful trade deals with Mercosur, India, or the ASEAN countries. These will be lost years for everybody. Just a lot of public resources being tied up to a process that makes everybody worse off..

PanHAM · Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:26 am

The Point is, such a new Agreement must be one of the first whch have to be renegotiated. The Deadline is not i 2 years and 1 year from now may not be good either. The bi-laterals have to be ratified by 27 parliaments plus one to become law.
And no one has mentioned the right to overfly yet.

as the old saying goes. If you don't have preblems , go ahead and create Problems.

Dutchy · Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:34 am

PanHAM wrote:
The Point is, such a new Agreement must be one of the first whch have to be renegotiated. The Deadline is not i 2 years and 1 year from now may not be good either. The bi-laterals have to be ratified by 27 parliaments plus one to become law.
And no one has mentioned the right to overfly yet.

as the old saying goes. If you don't have preblems , go ahead and create Problems.

Overfly rights have been mentioned

I can asure you that this agreement won't be separated from the rest. It will be an all in deal with all the thousands of regulations dealt with. So the problem is real for airlines. The UK has shot itself in the foot, now it is a problem which has to be dealt with so it can be accepted by all the parties.

B777LRF · Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:36 am

What MoL meant to say was this: 'We, as an Irish registed airline, will be unable to offer flights between the UK and the continent if there's no agreement in place allowing it'. BA, along with any other UK based airline, will certainly be allowed to operate services between the UK and any point on the continent, just as any EU based carrier will be able to offer such services from any EU country to the UK.

It's Ryanair who's in a bit of bind here, not e.g. BA.

225623 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:40 am

Jomar777 wrote:
Sorry to say but, for this to happen, the UK/EU Relationship would have to breakdown to such a point where cooperation of any form would be impossible.
Never mind who wins and/or who loses. Look at Iran, Russia, etc. They have a much worse relationship with the EU and the world and yet, Aeroflot, fro example, is operating out of LHR AND LGW and is member of the Star Alliance. Both Russian and European Flights use their respective airspaces regardless to the fact that the EU has imposed several sanctions to Russia.
There will be several losers (certainly no winners) on this but it is such beyond far fetched that I am surprised Ryanair even considered to come with this statement.
As hard as a Brexit could be, for this to happen you would need something in the level of the UK or the EU pulling out of the UN and NATO to even consider.

Some of what you describe is covered by basic ICAO regulations, so would still apply. But most is organised by bilateral agreements. With Iran, Russia and all the other examples EU has working agreements. And your examples are still far from the single market that we currently still have. With the current schedule after two years the EU rules and legislation don't work anymore for the UK. Bilaterals don't exist.

The problem here is time and workload. With Iran, Russia and all the other examples we have working agreements. So we have two years from now to get to a new agreement between EU and UK, have it signed & ratified by both sides (and in the EU case sometimes by the different member states). For one agreement this would be ambitious, but could be done. But there is a zillion agreements to be done at the same time, covering each aspect of the relationship, not only aviation. So I understand if airline officials start to worry and try to get their issues high on the priority list for negotiations.

If no agreement can be reached after the two years, no extension given for EU rules and no new agreement reached, what would happen?

And some other interesting thing: The problem might no only exist between EU and UK. What with the bilaterals between UK and third parties? I understand that UK is not covered anymore by agreements between EU and these third parties, so UK has to negotiate its own agreement with Russia, Iran and others. This means they can not only focus on negotiations with EU, they have to worry about the rest of the world as well. Again, major problem will be time and workload.

skipness1E · Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:49 am

This isn't difficult.
Ryanair have an existing business Ryanair UK. The WORST that need happen is they need to dedicate a % of the fleet to that UK AOC and put them on the British register. It's not THAT tricky MOL is just trying to avoind additional costs. The amount of ill informed doom mongering on here is scary. Chicken Licken anyone?

225623 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:02 am

Hi skipnees1E.
Nice, brushing off everything you don't like/ know / understand as "ill informed doom mongering". How about joining into the discussion and giving some valid arguments. Undoubtly you have a wealth of information to share and knowledge that will enlighten us.

Edit:
Having an UK AOC doesn't help if the UK does not have an agreement with the EU. Or some other states.

YIMBY · Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:05 am

Dutchy wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
c933103 wrote:
but the talk is about failure to reach any agreement including bilateral?

Sounds more like a doom scenario, I cannot see that happening. Nobody wins if they fail to reach an agreement.

It is a dome scenario and that's why a hard Brexit won't work. But they have engaged into article 50, in two years time that is the fall back scenario if they failed to come to an agreement. And I don't think aviation is top priority. Hopefully they will have a same kind of relationship to the EU as Switzerland or Norway has, the best for everyone, not in the last place UK self.

The point is, the article 50 is only how to arrange the divorce. That is, how to divide the assets and liabilities etc, and the rights of people settled wherever due to existing permissions by EU citizenship. It is not how to renegotiate the relations between UK and EU thereafter. Those are different negotiations, and the EU authorities have said that they are kept strictly separate, and the article 50 is negotiated first until any other issues are discussed. Probably it is not even choice, but the EU law dictates that. If the negotiators of the divorce start to talk about future relations, they may exceed their authority and the whole agreement may be legally nullified, if some one complains.

There are several articles e.g. in http://www.politico.eu to explain that.

This phased approach may lead to the situation where the time ends. The formal negotiations about the divorce may be done in decent time, but there may be not left time to negotiate the future relations. There is a major probability that the trade relations are to be organized via generic WTO rules until the final agreement is agreed and accepted in all respective parliaments. As for air traffic, there is little chance that any formal deal will be done by next year, even if most might informally agree on the contents at good will.

Keep in mind, it is not enough that May and Merkel agree, but the agreements must pass all the formal procedures in governments and parliaments and that takes time, also in the UK, whose parliament will be heavily overbooked in the next years.

SomebodyInTLS · Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:35 am

Dutchy wrote:
Overfly rights have been mentioned

I can asure you that this agreement won't be separated from the rest. It will be an all in deal with all the thousands of regulations dealt with. So the problem is real for airlines. The UK has shot itself in the foot, now it is a problem which has to be dealt with so it can be accepted by all the parties.

The only possible way I can see any agreement being reached by the two year mark is if they basically say "everything stays the same except for X, Y & Z". With the "great repeal bill" already doing something similar on the UK side (all current EU-based laws copy/pasted into British law) - I imagine we will initially see arrangements very similar to the current arrangements for trade, immigration, border security, etc., with clauses to say that certain things can start to be unpicked after say five years - and that you can't unilaterally limit immigration without accepting changes to trade agreements, and so on.

I expect we face two years of uncertainty and drama - followed by the realisation that nothing's really changed, then five years to a decade of Brexiters complaining that nothing's changed, then five years to a decade of very slow changes. After that another decade or so of slow decline of the UK... before the the planning to re-join the EU.

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