Olddog
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Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:33 pm

:champagne: :champagne: :champagne: :champagne: :champagne: :champagne:

Let the real negotiations begin. :mrgreen:
 
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seahawk
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:39 pm

Independence Day !!
 
einsteinboricua
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:41 pm

This is so similar to a parent warning a kid they'll spank them in 3...2...1...get over here now...I swear I'll spank you...

Who wants to wager Article 50 won't be triggered that day? A "procedural hurdle" will pop up...
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:52 pm

And so it begins. Let's see how this played out, will it be a hard Brexit, severing all ties and falling back on the WTO rules. Or will it be more like Norway, then the Brexit has had no real meaning.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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SAS A340
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:57 pm

The sad thing is that Putin loves this crap!
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
Olddog
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 4:39 pm

SAS A340 wrote:
The sad thing is that Putin loves this crap!


Yes but unfortunately for him The Netherlands resisted and I very much doubt that France will fall for Le pen.

Tusk should announce that the basis deal is WTO rules and if UK want more they will have to give more.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 4:51 pm

Olddog wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:
The sad thing is that Putin loves this crap!


Yes but unfortunately for him The Netherlands resisted and I very much doubt that France will fall for Le pen.

Tusk should announce that the basis deal is WTO rules and if UK want more they will have to give more.


That is the status quo, if there isn't an agreement reached in 2 years time. The clock will be ticking.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
anshabhi
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:26 pm

I love Brexit! £ has come to ₹80 from ₹100 2 years earlier. (₹=Indian Rupee)
India's GDP has overtaken UK, 4 years before estimate of 2020.
With Brexit only starting, I am confident much more is left to come!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:01 pm

anshabhi wrote:
I love Brexit! £ has come to ₹80 from ₹100 2 years earlier. (₹=Indian Rupee)
India's GDP has overtaken UK, 4 years before estimate of 2020.
With Brexit only starting, I am confident much more is left to come!


So what you are basically are saying, the Brits screwed us over, now it is our turn and you are going to piss all over their grave. Okish, I guess that is also a way to look at it.

I wish everyone well.....
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:15 pm

anshabhi wrote:
I
India's GDP has overtaken UK, 4 years before estimate of 2020.


Well, California has a decent shot in having a higher GDP than the UK in the near future.

Best regards
Thomas
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Ken777
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:47 pm

Olddog wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:

Tusk should announce that the basis deal is WTO rules and if UK want more they will have to give more.


The UK is already delivering more, starting with their NATO participation. There are also the commercial joint ventures like Airbus to make it important too both parties to stay close.

While the EU negotiators may push for a hard Britex in order to scare the populations of other countries from leaving I would be more concerned about the long term impact of hard feelings - something Russia would love.

IMO this should be a fast negotiation with terms fair for both sides.
 
Olddog
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:25 pm

I don't think so.

When I read on UK website that people are trying to make think that they will get a better with the EU after Brexit than now, I wonder what they are smoking :)
 
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Dano1977
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:59 pm

So now we have a date article 50 will be triggered...

I wonder how the negotiations will start...

Good Morning Leaders of Europe,
Lets save us all some time. We all know that these negotiations will go down exactly like the last major encounter we had with Europe in that we will win, Germany will come second, Poland will go down in the first round, France will give up, Holland wont care, Belgium wont matter, Italy will side with Germany and then change sides when it all goes tits up, Portugal and Spain will stay out of it and everyone else will agree with us.
So with that in mind, we've cancelled the direct debit and the victory party starts in the bar in ten minutes. Germany, you get the first round in as loser buys.
Good day."

or

We recognise your request of negotiations being in French, and suggest that the discussions should be in German. We want to talk to the organ grinder, not his monkey.'


*This is satirical - not intended to cause offence
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Gemuser
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:47 pm

In reply 11 Ken777 wrote "There are also the commercial joint ventures like Airbus to make it important too both parties to stay close."
Point of order! The UK is NOT part of the Airbus joint venture. The UK elected NOT to be part of Airbus when it was formed. Some UK companies have commercial contracts with Airbus and Airbus owns some UK companies/facilities.

Gemuser
 
LAH1
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:00 am

Gemuser wrote:
In reply 11 Ken777 wrote "There are also the commercial joint ventures like Airbus to make it important too both parties to stay close."
Point of order! The UK is NOT part of the Airbus joint venture. The UK elected NOT to be part of Airbus when it was formed. Some UK companies have commercial contracts with Airbus and Airbus owns some UK companies/facilities.

Gemuser


I'd be interested in why Wiki (yes I know it is Wiki...) has this.:-

When Airbus was incorporated as a joint-stock company in 2001 BAE transferred its UK Airbus facilities in return for a 20% share of the new company. These facilities became Airbus UK. Airbus UK has two main sites responsible for the design and manufacture of the high-technology wings for all Airbus models as well as overall design and supply of the fuel system. For most Airbus models the company is responsible for overall design and supply of landing gear.

Is this at variance to your post or is there something I'm missing?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:13 am

IAG will be more interesting to watch. WTO rules don't stipulated that foreign ownership of airlines is possible. So if they can't reach an agreement, I guess that IAG will be torn apart.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:38 am

Dutchy wrote:
IAG will be more interesting to watch. WTO rules don't stipulated that foreign ownership of airlines is possible. So if they can't reach an agreement, I guess that IAG will be torn apart.


Surely if a rule doesn't specifically mention something, the presumption is that it is allowed ?

Why would ownership of an airline be different to any other business, except for reasons of protectionism ?

Here in the UK we are generally relaxed about foreign ownership of what have previously been considered to be bastions of UK commerce. Why would we make an exception for BA ?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:53 am

Bongodog1964 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
IAG will be more interesting to watch. WTO rules don't stipulated that foreign ownership of airlines is possible. So if they can't reach an agreement, I guess that IAG will be torn apart.


Surely if a rule doesn't specifically mention something, the presumption is that it is allowed ?

Why would ownership of an airline be different to any other business, except for reasons of protectionism ?

Here in the UK we are generally relaxed about foreign ownership of what have previously been considered to be bastions of UK commerce. Why would we make an exception for BA ?


As far as I know it, 49% ownership is the max for non EU citizens, look at Alitalia and Etihad, 49% and I think it is the same in many countries. I guess that airlines are considered a strategic asset. For the UK, they have to comply with European rules at the moment, so there is no difference there. What will happen after the Brexit is anyones guess. IAG seems to be registered in the UK with stocks traded at the London stock exchange.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:26 am

Bongodog1964 wrote:
Why would ownership of an airline be different to any other business, except for reasons of protectionism ?


The problem is not so much where the airline is located, but whete is flies to, because traffic rights are between nations and not airlines. So, UK traffic rights only apply to UK airlines and generally an airline is just UK if 50+% is owned by citizens of that county.

Best regards
Thomas
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Gemuser
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:34 am

LAH1 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
In reply 11 Ken777 wrote "There are also the commercial joint ventures like Airbus to make it important too both parties to stay close."
Point of order! The UK is NOT part of the Airbus joint venture. The UK elected NOT to be part of Airbus when it was formed. Some UK companies have commercial contracts with Airbus and Airbus owns some UK companies/facilities.

Gemuser


I'd be interested in why Wiki (yes I know it is Wiki...) has this.:-

When Airbus was incorporated as a joint-stock company in 2001 BAE transferred its UK Airbus facilities in return for a 20% share of the new company. These facilities became Airbus UK. Airbus UK has two main sites responsible for the design and manufacture of the high-technology wings for all Airbus models as well as overall design and supply of the fuel system. For most Airbus models the company is responsible for overall design and supply of landing gear.

Is this at variance to your post or is there something I'm missing?

Read my last sentence again. That's what Wiki is referring to. The point is the UK has never been part of Airbus, when it was formed its shareholders were the governments of the joint ventures [France, Germany & Spain for sure, Italy & others I don't remember]. The shareholding have since been sold/transferred/otherwise moved around. I think the French government still has a direct holding either in Airbus or a holding company, I have not kept up with all the changes.

I am not sure if BAE still has shares in Airbus, the point is the UK, unlike France Germany, et al, made a deliberate decision to not buy in to Airbus.

Gemuser
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:48 am

Gemuser wrote:
LAH1 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
In reply 11 Ken777 wrote "There are also the commercial joint ventures like Airbus to make it important too both parties to stay close."
Point of order! The UK is NOT part of the Airbus joint venture. The UK elected NOT to be part of Airbus when it was formed. Some UK companies have commercial contracts with Airbus and Airbus owns some UK companies/facilities.

Gemuser


I'd be interested in why Wiki (yes I know it is Wiki...) has this.:-

When Airbus was incorporated as a joint-stock company in 2001 BAE transferred its UK Airbus facilities in return for a 20% share of the new company. These facilities became Airbus UK. Airbus UK has two main sites responsible for the design and manufacture of the high-technology wings for all Airbus models as well as overall design and supply of the fuel system. For most Airbus models the company is responsible for overall design and supply of landing gear.

Is this at variance to your post or is there something I'm missing?

Read my last sentence again. That's what Wiki is referring to. The point is the UK has never been part of Airbus, when it was formed its shareholders were the governments of the joint ventures [France, Germany & Spain for sure, Italy & others I don't remember]. The shareholding have since been sold/transferred/otherwise moved around. I think the French government still has a direct holding either in Airbus or a holding company, I have not kept up with all the change

I am not sure if BAE still has shares in Airbus, the point is the UK, unlike France Germany, et al, made a deliberate decision to not buy in to Airbus.

Gemuser


I'm taking this from memory, so it might not be 100%, but it should be near enough:

The UK Govt declined to take part in Airbus
Hawker Siddeley Aviation a UK based manufacturer did take part with a 20% stake.
The UK govt nationalised the aerospace industry in 1977, thus taking over the 20%
A subsequent UK govt, privatised the aerospace industry as British Aerospace in the 1980's thus disposing of their Airbus stake.
BAe systems as it subsequently became then decided to concentrate on defence and sold its stake to Airbus (Great move as defence budgets declined almost everywhere and Airbus production soared)
 
LAH1
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:52 pm

Thanks both for the replies. It seems clear the gov of the day made some calculations that might have been better thought out - but then what's new?
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:19 am

Ken777 wrote:
There are also the commercial joint ventures like Airbus to make it important too both parties to stay close.

Airbus has already cashed in on brexit. Since Cameron announced the referendum 15 months ago the £ has dropped some 20% against other currencies such as € and $.

Airbus has factories in several non-EU countries, especially in the UK. Airbus now saves 20% on wages to their UK employees. Losers are of course the UK workers when they go and buy some non-UK products.

That will be by far the main effect of brexit, hard or soft. Other effects, such as move of much of London financial services to the continent, will be slower and more gradual.

That's all that will happen, and mostly it has already happened. Britain won't sink into the ocean because of brexit. There has been a few occations when the £ gained 2-3% value for a couple of days because some third rank politician expressed doubt in brexit, but that will end next Wednesday when the A50 bottom will be pressed.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:35 am

prebennorholm wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
There are also the commercial joint ventures like Airbus to make it important too both parties to stay close.

Airbus has already cashed in on brexit. Since Cameron announced the referendum 15 months ago the £ has dropped some 20% against other currencies such as € and $.

Airbus has factories in several non-EU countries, especially in the UK. Airbus now saves 20% on wages to their UK employees. Losers are of course the UK workers when they go and buy some non-UK products.

That will be by far the main effect of brexit, hard or soft. Other effects, such as move of much of London financial services to the continent, will be slower and more gradual.

That's all that will happen, and mostly it has already happened. Britain won't sink into the ocean because of brexit. There has been a few occations when the £ gained 2-3% value for a couple of days because some third rank politician expressed doubt in brexit, but that will end next Wednesday when the A50 bottom will be pressed.


Yes the Brits are going to be paying a high price for their semi independence and May seems to favor a hard lined approach.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:19 am

prebennorholm wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
There are also the commercial joint ventures like Airbus to make it important too both parties to stay close.

Airbus has already cashed in on brexit. Since Cameron announced the referendum 15 months ago the £ has dropped some 20% against other currencies such as € and $.

Airbus has factories in several non-EU countries, especially in the UK. Airbus now saves 20% on wages to their UK employees. Losers are of course the UK workers when they go and buy some non-UK products.

That will be by far the main effect of brexit, hard or soft. Other effects, such as move of much of London financial services to the continent, will be slower and more gradual.

That's all that will happen, and mostly it has already happened. Britain won't sink into the ocean because of brexit. There has been a few occations when the £ gained 2-3% value for a couple of days because some third rank politician expressed doubt in brexit, but that will end next Wednesday when the A50 bottom will be pressed.


The correct figures are 9% against the euro and 15% against the $. even then the £ is stronger against the euro than it was a few years ago.

The most pleasing factor I find over brexit is just how upset many Europeans appear to be as they predict a slow and lingering death for the UK, if as they predict the Eu holds all the good cards, they should be happy and encouraging us to leave.
 
einsteinboricua
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:15 pm

Dutchy wrote:
May seems to favor a hard lined approach.

May is just delivering on what the Brits voted on. If you asked those who voted to leave, they'll likely say that they want no further part in the European project and want to be a fully sovereign nation (ie. not be subjected to Brussels in the slightest bit, which the EEA would still do).

My guess is that May will try to go for a Swiss-style relation, though she may preside over the breakup of the UK if Scotland follows through on leaving.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:51 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
May seems to favor a hard lined approach.

May is just delivering on what the Brits voted on. If you asked those who voted to leave, they'll likely say that they want no further part in the European project and want to be a fully sovereign nation (ie. not be subjected to Brussels in the slightest bit, which the EEA would still do).

My guess is that May will try to go for a Swiss-style relation, though she may preside over the breakup of the UK if Scotland follows through on leaving.


Switzerland isn't in the EEA, but it is in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and they adopted a lot of EU rules, among those: Free movement of people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerla ... _relations

The Swiss-style relationship will not be a hard Brexit at all, it is kind of the same relationship as the EU with Norway or Iceland.

And yes, it looks like May will be responsible for the break up of the UK, Scotland and Northern Island / Ulster seems to want to leave.
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:08 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The Swiss-style relationship will not be a hard Brexit at all, it is kind of the same relationship as the EU with Norway or Iceland.

The Swiss model is an a la carte style relationship: everything is done by bilateral treaties. Iceland, Norway, and Liechtenstein all pay fees to the EU in exchange for free movement of goods and services (but get a pass on certain EU regulations). If I'm not mistaken, Switzerland does not pay fees (and if it does, it's WAY less than the other three). My guess is that this is what the UK may go towards. Remaining in the EEA with Iceland, Norway, and Liechtenstein doesn't do anything other than give up representation in the EU institutions (Parliament, Council of Ministers, etc)...fees still have to be paid and Brussels still mostly dictates what the UK can and cannot do.
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UltimoTiger777
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:28 pm

Dutchy wrote:

The Swiss-style relationship will not be a hard Brexit at all, it is kind of the same relationship as the EU with Norway or Iceland.


I don't think most people, even leave voters would be all that upset with soft-Brexit as opposed to hard-Brexit. Some would but I think they really are a minority (albit a vocal one).

Dutchy wrote:
And yes, it looks like May will be responsible for the break up of the UK, Scotland and Northern Island / Ulster seems to want to leave.


See the problem with this argument is twofold. Let me take Northern Ireland first. While nationalist sentiment has certainly risen, there is still gurantee that the population as a whole would vote for Irish unification. Take a look at the fact that in 2014, people rejected Scottish independence but then in 2015, overwhelmingly voted for the SNP in the general election. Sometimes, support for nationalist movements does not always mean people share all their aims. A survey carried out last year AFTER the EU referendum still found a majority in Northern Ireland wouldn't vote to join the Irish Republic and also that most of the people in that survey hadn't had their opinions changed by the outcome of the referendum.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-i ... s-37321143

Until the support is firmly entrenched over the 50% mark (such as if nationalists are overwhelmingly elected to Stormont and/or Westminster), I doubt the UK government will pull the trigger on holding a border poll for fear of the potential unrest it might cause.

As regards to Scotland, again, most polls point to people favouring staying in the UK. OK, polls can be wrong but most of the ones for last year were actually quite close to the real results (for example, most polls has Clinton winning the popular vote and that's what happened). Maybe the SNP can come up with a coherent strategy to to convince people otherwise but there's every chance people will still vote against them in such a referendum. Even if they do vote to leave, the UK government has to allow Sturgeon the power to hold a referendum since such matters are by law reserved to the UK government and not the devolved ones (Section 30 of the Scotland Act). So theoretically, the UK government can sit out on letting Scotland hold a referendum until after the UK leaves the EU meaning Scotland if it voted for independence would have to go through the convoluted process of EU accession.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... um_polling

Brexit could/will/might have an almighty effect on the constitutional set up of the United Kingdom but that does not mean that the breakup is inevitable. I'd also wager that Northern Ireland leaving the UK will be precipitated by the eventual demographic changes in the Unionist and Nationalist communities than solely on issues relating to Brexit.
 
einsteinboricua
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:21 pm

UltimoTiger777 wrote:
See the problem with this argument is twofold.

I get what you're saying, but you're leaving out one very important detail: letting the new reality sink in.

Until Article 50 is triggered, there's no reason to assume that NI or Scotland will put forward any real effort towards breaking away from the Union...because the reality is still sinking in, but not enough to merit action. When Article 50 is triggered and negotiations start taking shape, then I'm certain both countries will be thinking "Oh crap...this is really happening". It's kinda like a person in a hurricane's path not wanting to prepare, thinking it will all blow over...and then realizing that the storm is just as bad as predicted and it's too late to do anything.

Of course, there's also the fact that how do two separate entities of the Union deal when they have differences of opinions? It's one thing when voting on laws that the nations as a whole agree to follow (laws passed by Parliament); it's another when it comes to protecting the interest of each countries' residents. When Scotland had its referendum, London warned that if Scotland left, it would need to apply to get to the EU (and surely a UK veto will be waiting)...so now the UK as a whole is leaving, so what was the point of the warning in the first place?

I don't know much enough about what's going on up in there, but from where I stand, it seems hypocritical of England to have told Scotland that it risked losing EU market access only to be forced to leave it a few years later because England itself has had enough. How does May attempt to satisfy the needs of both the Leave and Stay camps without risking the breakup of the UK?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:20 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
UltimoTiger777 wrote:
See the problem with this argument is twofold.

I get what you're saying, but you're leaving out one very important detail: letting the new reality sink in.

Until Article 50 is triggered, there's no reason to assume that NI or Scotland will put forward any real effort towards breaking away from the Union...because the reality is still sinking in, but not enough to merit action. When Article 50 is triggered and negotiations start taking shape, then I'm certain both countries will be thinking "Oh crap...this is really happening". It's kinda like a person in a hurricane's path not wanting to prepare, thinking it will all blow over...and then realizing that the storm is just as bad as predicted and it's too late to do anything.

Of course, there's also the fact that how do two separate entities of the Union deal when they have differences of opinions? It's one thing when voting on laws that the nations as a whole agree to follow (laws passed by Parliament); it's another when it comes to protecting the interest of each countries' residents. When Scotland had its referendum, London warned that if Scotland left, it would need to apply to get to the EU (and surely a UK veto will be waiting)...so now the UK as a whole is leaving, so what was the point of the warning in the first place?

I don't know much enough about what's going on up in there, but from where I stand, it seems hypocritical of England to have told Scotland that it risked losing EU market access only to be forced to leave it a few years later because England itself has had enough. How does May attempt to satisfy the needs of both the Leave and Stay camps without risking the breakup of the UK?


That's what I thought. Thinks have changed quite a bit. The EU seems to be important to the Scotts, if the Brexit is going to be hard and the impact on Scotland is savvier, I can see a breakaway happen. It doesn't mean that Scotland will automatically remain in the EU though (Spain isn't to keen on the idea of a runaway province is joining the EU, a president for Catalunya), but that is another matter.
But I don't know enough about the Scottish situation, I only know what I read in the papers in The Netherlands, so it might very well be quite distorted and the people whom are shouting loudly are the ones in the paper, not the silence majority.

@UltimoTiger777 As for the polls, I believe in polls, but you need to handel them right, most of the polls you mentioned were in the fault margin, they were too close to call.

As for Ulster, thank you for the comments.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Hywel
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:32 pm

I very much doubt Scotland would vote for independence, if they were granted another referendum.

The arguments for Brexit were very much mixed. There's a strong chance that Britain could suffer if leaving, but also a strong chance it could prosper (long term of course). People were willing to take the risk of leaving, knowing that such a large economy would probably "weather the storm" and survive long term, no matter what.

In the case of Scottish independence, it's almost 100% certain they would bankrupt their economy if they got independence. Their economic situation is much worse than during the 2014 referendum, and once the UK has left the EU, they'd have no fallback. The people would vote to remain part of a large economic powerhouse such as the UK, rather than take the risk of leaving.
 
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winterlight
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:20 pm

Looks like the staged event in Westminster today was designed to delay and ultimately block "Brexit". Cue all the "by staying in the EU events like this wouldn't happen" bollocks.
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scbriml
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:23 pm

winterlight wrote:
Looks like the staged event in Westminster today was designed to delay and ultimately block "Brexit". Cue all the "by staying in the EU events like this wouldn't happen" bollocks.


Yep, a death and several critical injuries were all 'staged'. Enjoy your tin-foil hat. :sarcastic: :banghead:
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:26 pm

Hywel wrote:
There's a strong chance that Britain could suffer if leaving, but also a strong chance it could prosper (long term of course).


Great Britain is leaving, get your head around that. :D I highly doubt they will prosper from this though, no indications for that.

Hywel wrote:
People were willing to take the risk of leaving, knowing that such a large economy would probably "weather the storm" and survive long term, no matter what.


Sure, Britain will remain were it is, and it will survive, the question is how prosperous will it be and how prosperous could it have been if it hadn't shot itself in the foot. And yes Britons did take the chance, choosing a perceived independence over the economy. If you think Briton will win from this, you also believe in fairytales.

Hywel wrote:
In the case of Scottish independence, it's almost 100% certain they would bankrupt their economy if they got independence. Their economic situation is much worse than during the 2014 referendum, and once the UK has left the EU, they'd have no fallback. The people would vote to remain part of a large economic powerhouse such as the UK, rather than take the risk of leaving.


Perhaps, but the older English and Welsh also chose independence over the economy. So Bill Clinton's "it's the economy stupid" isn't the final word I guess.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:27 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
May seems to favor a hard lined approach.

May is just delivering on what the Brits voted on. If you asked those who voted to leave, they'll likely say that they want no further part in the European project and want to be a fully sovereign nation (ie. not be subjected to Brussels in the slightest bit, which the EEA would still do)..


Öhm... no.. not even close:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/u ... Brexit.pdf

Bes regards
Thomas
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Hywel
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:35 pm

Dutchy wrote:

Sure, Britain will remain were it is, and it will survive, the question is how prosperous will it be and how prosperous could it have been if it hadn't shot itself in the foot. And yes Britons did take the chance, choosing a perceived independence over the economy. If you think Briton will win from this, you also believe in fairytales.


I have to disagree with that, simply because nobody really knows what the future will hold. Perhaps the odds are in your favour (the UK won't win), but you cannot discount the opposite from happening.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:42 pm

Hywel wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Sure, Britain will remain were it is, and it will survive, the question is how prosperous will it be and how prosperous could it have been if it hadn't shot itself in the foot. And yes Britons did take the chance, choosing a perceived independence over the economy. If you think Briton will win from this, you also believe in fairytales.


I have to disagree with that, simply because nobody really knows what the future will hold. Perhaps the odds are in your favour (the UK won't win), but you cannot discount the opposite from happening.


True, but you have to recognize what most probably will happen and is happening as we speak. Actually I hope they will accept a deal like Switzerland, will be best for everyone, but May seems to have chosen a path far from that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:43 pm

scbriml wrote:
winterlight wrote:
Looks like the staged event in Westminster today was designed to delay and ultimately block "Brexit". Cue all the "by staying in the EU events like this wouldn't happen" bollocks.


Yep, a death and several critical injuries were all 'staged'. Enjoy your tin-foil hat. :sarcastic: :banghead:


I wonder how long it will take before infowars will claim just that. But so far they sing the Jihadist song.

Maybe he just didn't have his cocain yet.

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Thomas
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scbriml
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:04 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
I wonder how long it will take before infowars will claim just that.


Well now it's two deaths - a woman killed on the bridge by a 4x4 and a policeman stabbed by the driver.

Mad claims that shit like this is all "made up" is really totally disrespectful to those that have lost their lives. :banghead:
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tommy1808
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
Mad claims that shit like this is all "made up" is really totally disrespectful to those that have lost their lives. :banghead:


Exactly. But they are already here and I am sure there will be more.

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Thomas
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LAH1
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:00 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
May seems to favor a hard lined approach.

May is just delivering on what the Brits voted on. If you asked those who voted to leave, they'll likely say that they want no further part in the European project and want to be a fully sovereign nation (ie. not be subjected to Brussels in the slightest bit, which the EEA would still do)..


Öhm... no.. not even close:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/u ... Brexit.pdf

Bes regards
Thomas


It looks good, colourful and full of explanation but it's still a small poll so "um no, not even close" might describe the people asked but hardly a broad response.

There are and always will be a wide variety of thought from those who voted one way or the other. That's why good balanced negotiations are vital. As has been said, the future is simply that, the future and one might just as well predict some EU economic or social disaster as the sinking of HMS UK.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:11 pm

LAH1 wrote:
It looks good, colourful and full of explanation but it's still a small poll so "um no, not even close" might describe the people


If you ignore that all polls are in that ballpark, you can say that. And the sample is actually rather large, they don't state the error margin, but given sample and UK size it should be below 3% and above 2%. As far as polls go, that is pretty accurate.
The statement I commented on wouldn't even be remotely true if the poll is two or three times as much off.

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Thomas
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UltimoTiger777
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:06 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
[When Scotland had its referendum, London warned that if Scotland left, it would need to apply to get to the EU (and surely a UK veto will be waiting)...so now the UK as a whole is leaving, so what was the point of the warning in the first place?


Because no one in the actual UK government at the time advocated EU withdrawal, nor did any of the major parties outside of UKIP. Cameron didn't even have the civil service make contingency planning for the event that he might lose the referendum. He made the mistake of offering the vote as a sop to eurosceptics, too arrogant to see that they would take absolutely any chance they could to achieve what they've wanted since the 1970s. The only reason Theresa May is going along with this is because the political price of overturning the referendum result would have been crippling for her party (more people voted for both leave and remain than have ever voted for any party in a UK election).

I think very few people in 2014 when the independence vote was held (even leave voters like me) believed we would ever get any form of referendum on EU membership in the near future. I didn't even think it would result in a leave win. The safe money three years ago would have been on the UK staying in the EU regardless of the likes of UKIP (who then struggled to get any MPs elected at the 2015 election due to the nature of first past the post).

Dutchy wrote:
Perhaps, but the older English and Welsh also chose independence over the economy. So Bill Clinton's "it's the economy stupid" isn't the final word I guess.


Money isn't everything, otherwise Taiwan would have invited the Peoples Liberation Army into Taipei a long time ago and the Irish war of independence would never have happened. National identity is a very visceral thing in some places.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:03 am

Bongodog1964 wrote:
The correct figures are 9% against the euro and 15% against the $. even then the £ is stroner against the euro than it was a few years.

EUR/GBP 19 Dec 2015 close: 0.72951 (the day Cameron announced the referendum)
Today: 0.86535
Drop = almost exactly 20%, not 9%.
You may count the drop since the referendum, which is indeed close to 9%. But that's irrelevant.

And yes, in 2008 / 2009, at the peak of the GFC, the pound was even lower. But not much. Too bad that the £ is down at the same level as 8 years ago when half of the UK banks went bust.

Funny thing, last summer my nephew made a long holiday in England, he does that every summer, on credit card of course. But last summer he exchanged to cash £££ beforehand, because the £ had dropped 10% due to scare of brexit. But as my nephew said, Englishmen aren't stupid, there will be no brexit, in July during my holiday the £ will be back to normal, but with my cheap cash £££ I will have made 10% rebate on my holiday.

But England voted brexit, the £ dropped a further 10%, and my nephew kicked himself in his behind.
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BawliBooch
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:07 am

Dutchy wrote:
So what you are basically are saying, the Brits screwed us over, now it is our turn and you are going to piss all over their grave. Okish, I guess that is also a way to look at it.

I wish everyone well.....


Leave @anshabhi alone. He is a teenager without a clue. The same guy who called Americans "White Christian Terrorists". :)
 
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Aesma
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Re: Article 50 Will Be Triggered On March 29

Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:05 am

I think a big problem in today's world is there is no clear objective for countries. Politicians promise more jobs and less taxes, they don't offer a vision.

I don't pretend to know the UK very well, the impression I've got, what we used to hear when the UK was mentioned, was that it was a banking and commerce powerhouse. That's why the UK in the EU pushed for an ever more liberal (real sense of the word, not US one) common market, less rules and regulations on things like the job market, or banking regulations.

Brexit is the exact opposite to all that. So will the UK find a new goal ? Bring manufacturing back ?

That question is also true for other countries including mine, but maybe in France's case an EU goal could replace a national one. At least liberalizing everything further will not be it, thanks to the UK leaving.
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