c933103
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Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:49 pm

Recently some Russian government official have spoken for the project and apparently the only major problem for the project is only the return of investment. An earlier estimate put the cost of such a project at around 1 billion RUB and call it the project of next decade.
As the distance is obviously too long for any major passengers traffics to reroute from air to rail, the main potential use of such a project would be for freight transportation. So, do you guys think the freight business would pay off for the construction cost of such a link?
 
WIederling
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:29 pm

c933103 wrote:
So, do you guys think the freight business would pay off for the construction cost of such a link?


There are already regular freight trains from Europe to China and back. About 40 relations at the turn of the year.
Murphy is an optimist
 
c933103
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:32 pm

WIederling wrote:
c933103 wrote:
So, do you guys think the freight business would pay off for the construction cost of such a link?


There are already regular freight trains from Europe to China and back. About 40 relations at the turn of the year.

I have little knowledge on revenue of each of those train service and also i am not sure how the demand for such service in Japan would be compare to demand in China..
 
WIederling
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:53 pm

c933103 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
c933103 wrote:
So, do you guys think the freight business would pay off for the construction cost of such a link?


There are already regular freight trains from Europe to China and back. About 40 relations at the turn of the year.

I have little knowledge on revenue of each of those train service and also i am not sure how the demand for such service in Japan would be compare to demand in China..


Cost is about twice what you pay for shipping. Transit time is moving to less than half of the shipping route. ( ~15 days to 30+ days )

The Transsib already reaches Wladiwostok. Ferry services from there to Japan exists.

As long as Japan exports weighty high value goods to Europe and the reverse is also true ..
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Aesma
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:10 am

Are you talking about building a bridge/tunnel to Sakhalin, then another bridge/tunnel to Hokkaido ? I think your estimate of the cost lacks many zeroes...

Also you would need the Japanese to like the idea of being linked to the continent (and to Russia), might not be a given.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
PanHAM
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:48 am

A huge waste of Money, the OP mentioned that the ROI is the only Problem. That is correct. That Problem is so big that it cancells any such Project from the beginning.

The Trains between China and Europe are a niche product in that market, any Extension would Need second, third or fourth tracks and a route to Japan would, BTW circumvent Chine completely. Take a look at the map, guys.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
c933103
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:57 am

Aesma wrote:
Are you talking about building a bridge/tunnel to Sakhalin, then another bridge/tunnel to Hokkaido ? I think your estimate of the cost lacks many zeroes...

Also you would need the Japanese to like the idea of being linked to the continent (and to Russia), might not be a given.

Ah just realized i have wrote billion in the op. It should be trillion instead. Sorry for the mistake.
 
WIederling
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:34 am

PanHAM wrote:
A huge waste of Money, the OP mentioned that the ROI is the only Problem. That is correct. That Problem is so big that it cancells any such Project from the beginning.

The Trains between China and Europe are a niche product in that market, any Extension would Need second, third or fourth tracks and a route to Japan would, BTW circumvent Chine completely. Take a look at the map, guys.


Trains to China pass through the RF. Only the last leg would stay in Russia instead of crossing the border to China.

Then professionals seem to not take your view anyway:
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/frei ... cargo.html
Murphy is an optimist
 
PanHAM
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:44 am

I am a Transport professional and I stand my view. Just give you some figures - 600.000 tons carried by rail can be hauled away by 3 or 4 box carrier voyages. Depending on density. Assuming 10% would go by rail instead of air, that would be chicken sheet whe you look at the more than 4 Million tons handled at HKG alone.

Next, a rail Project connecting the Asian continent with Japan via Sakhalin would stay on Russian soil and not cut through China.It would touch either Chabarowsk or Komsomolsk or whatever that place is called today.

Transsib Rial is a nice alternative to air or sea/air but at the end of the day the capacity is limited or they would Need to build 3rd and foruth tracks and then we are back at ROI. The thumb goes down.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
WIederling
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:56 am

PanHAM wrote:
I am a Transport professional and I stand my view.


You massively overstate the objectives and then tell us it does not work. Horray.

Shipping won't go away. This will cost airfreight volume. ( which seems to never have risen beyond ~1Mt /y for EU/China)
Rail seems to have grown to 50% of that already.
Murphy is an optimist
 
PanHAM
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:05 pm

The Topic is a rail line from Russia via the Russian Island of Sakhalin to Japan. This is one of the Projects that regularly appear out of nowhee and go back where it came from to rest until it Pops up again a decade or later. Like the tunnel from Europe to the USA. Never will happen.

The existant rail Connections from China to European Gateways provide a nice niche offer to customers bt that's all. Can happen only because local rails maintenance are paid by short and medium haul passenger and rail traffic ad These trans-Continental traffic is some gravy. Even if the Trains could be double stacked and a mile Long it would not really be a threat to air cargo. While the Investments in such upgrading would never amortize.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
WIederling
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:32 pm

PanHAM wrote:
Can happen only because local rails maintenance are paid by short and medium haul passenger and rail traffic ad These trans-Continental traffic is some gravy.


Taking your words the world is so simple. But what do I know.
Murphy is an optimist
 
johns624
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Re: Extending Trans-siberian rail toward Japan via Sakhalin

Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:13 pm

c933103 wrote:
Recently some Russian government official have spoken for the project and apparently the only major problem for the project is only the return of investment.
If there's no ROI, why would anyone build it? You make it sound like a minor thing but it's why most grandiose projects never get built.

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