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Dutchy
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Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:19 am

On march 15th, the Dutch general elections will be held. 28 parties are on the ballet. It promises to be a close elections with the latest polls putting the current prime ministers - Mark Rutte - party, VVD - conservative liberals - a head of Geert Wilders rightwing euro skeptical anti immigrant PVV party, followed closely by the christen democratic CDA, liberals | euro loving D66 and the green party GroenLinks.

So after Brexit and Trump the tide might turn a bit and the PVV might not win this one.

Almost all the big parties have said that they will not be in a coalition with Geert Wilders, because his standpoints are so far off that talking to them has not point.

Promises to be a close election, but that said it is also kind of doll. Geert Wilders doesn't want to engage that much, not much interviews to Dutch pers, no real debates (only two scheduled and he might pull out of those as well). Mark Rutte is a bit the same, but he does do interviews of course, in the debates he is a bit bland. There isn't one theme that really sticks out there and we are all waiting for a real game changer :D

So what do you all think? Is there any news in your media about this? The Guardian wrote a piece about Jesse Klaver: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... sse-klaver
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:57 am

Dutchy wrote:
Almost all the big parties have said that they will not be in a coalition with Geert Wilders, because his standpoints are so far off that talking to them has not point.


Which is, i may add on your behalf, very unusual for the Netherlands political culture, that is very consensus based compared to other nations.

Living close enough to the dutch border to do my weekend Shopping at Albert Heijn and Jumbo, i of course keep track of it, but i don´t think any German bigger newspaper missed the Wilders starting to drop in polls just like the German AfD does and reported on it.

best regards
Thomas
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ltbewr
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:07 pm

Not much in the USA as to the Dutch elections, we are more likely to be slightly more interested in elections later this year in Germany and France due to size of their countries and relationship with the USA.
As in the the USA, acts and fears of terrorism, migration from the Islamic world as well as Eastern and Southern Europe and former colonies are having a major affect on elections. Then there is the greater automation of jobs, eliminating millions of them and remaining ones much lower in pay, made worse by corporate mergers (like PSA and GM-Europe), cheaper imports, the EC structure, uneven economic status, bad governance in some countries - all have their affects too encouraging more 'conservative', nationalistic, and sometimes radical politicians.
It will be interesting to see what happens in The Netherlands and throughout Europe and other countries around the world to see how far to the 'right' they will become and if it works.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:21 pm

ltbewr wrote:
elections later this year in Germany


The only thing that may happen is a slight shift to the left, and that will be only fairly slight.

and France


that will be more thrilling.

best regards
Thomas
This signature is a safe space for Trump supporters....
 
petertenthije
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:14 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Almost all the big parties have said that they will not be in a coalition with Geert Wilders, because his standpoints are so far off that talking to them has not point.


Which is, i may add on your behalf, very unusual for the Netherlands political culture, that is very consensus based compared to other nations.

Actually, it is not that unusual. In the past this happened to the CD (Centrum Democaten / Hans Janmaat) as well.

In the case of the CD it went even further, they were downright ignored. This would not be possible at all with the PVV. Janmaat never had more then three seats. The PVV currently has 26 seats and is polling for 22. There are only 150 seats in the tweede kamer* so PVV's 26 seats can not be ignored.


* Similar to UK: House of Commons, US: House of Representatives
Attamottamotta!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 5:10 pm

petertenthije wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Almost all the big parties have said that they will not be in a coalition with Geert Wilders, because his standpoints are so far off that talking to them has not point.


Which is, i may add on your behalf, very unusual for the Netherlands political culture, that is very consensus based compared to other nations.

Actually, it is not that unusual. In the past this happened to the CD (Centrum Democaten / Hans Janmaat) as well.

In the case of the CD it went even further, they were downright ignored. This would not be possible at all with the PVV. Janmaat never had more then three seats. The PVV currently has 26 seats and is polling for 22. There are only 150 seats in the tweede kamer* so PVV's 26 seats can not be ignored.


* Similar to UK: House of Commons, US: House of Representatives


The PVV has 12 seats in the current parlement: https://www.tweedekamer.nl/kamerleden/fracties but I see your point.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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pylon101
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 5:46 pm

Best wishes to Mr. Wilders and his party from all U.S. alternative rights. And the Russian ones, I guess.
In this epoch of weak minds, the word of truth requires courage. Mr. Wilders has this courage.
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:08 pm

pylon101 wrote:
Best wishes to Mr. Wilders and his party from all U.S. alternative rights. And the Russian ones, I guess.
In this epoch of weak minds, the word of truth requires courage. Mr. Wilders has this courage.


Yes he has courage, I'll give him that. And the Dutch taxpayer are paying dearly for his courage. But that is not the point.

Courage alone is not enough to lead a country. America is currently holding quite a serieus pilot with a leader whom doesn't believe in facts. I think the Netherlands deserves a better leader, then a leader whom sole purpose seems to be to divide.
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pylon101
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:53 pm

Wilders is a complete socialist.

The only difference: der Internationalismus has been never understood in terms of immigration.
The Engels's racial (and Russopohobic) attitudes were perfectly known.

The same relates to Marin Le Pen. She is a pure socialist. She just understands what mean the alien hordes for European identity, in the perspective.

I think the European Social-Democracy Is responsible for the Europe's demise we are observing.
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:29 pm

pylon101 wrote:
I think the European Social-Democracy Is responsible for the Europe's demise we are observing.


Why?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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pylon101
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:24 am

SPD used to be the backbone of European political system since 1918, or even sooner.
And protection of the interests of labor unions was its utmost mission.
Without the unions there is no SPD.
Even though die Arbeiter Klasse has substantially diminished in numbers, it was SPD existential objective: to defend the interests of the majority.
Which makes its position on immigration inconsistent with the core values of the German people.
Yes. There was and there is die Kollektivschuld factor.
Yes. The Germans are being afraid by many nations.
No. It can not and will not continue forever.
The harder the world oligarchy keeps pressing Germans, the more devastating will be the reaction. Eventually.
Wilders and Le Pen understand it. And Merkel understands this - she was raised in der DDR where there was no Common Guilt whatsoever.
But they see the future differently.
SPD made these never-ending Great coalitions legal. But the outcome is terrible: the political system evolved into a one-party system.
A one-party system where differences between SPD and CDU are negligible.

The same trends prevail in the Netherlands. Yes. Wilders will not be able to make a coalition. Because the center-right and center-left are undistinguishable. It is the same Grand coalition.

Still, there is a hope. And I believe that nothing is lost. There is still some time to reverse the damage.
Alternatively, it will be a Europe ....like Hagia Sophia in Istanbul. And without any invasion.
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:43 am

Your elections aren't on the radar here in France, our presidential race is too fascinating, like watching a train wreck in slow motion.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
tommy1808
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:53 am

pylon101 wrote:
SPD made these never-ending Great coalitions legal.


They have always been legal.

one-party system where differences between SPD and CDU are negligible.


just stop talking about things that you have no clue about.A coalition treaty is a consensus by definition, that has however nothing to with parties base program.

The ability of parties to work together constructively is a strength, not a weakness. See the USA and how much they get done. And just for the record, i vote for neither of the two.They won´t even agree what exactly the first 19 articles of the constitution actually mean in detail, don´t agree about the EU, about globalization, about social security, labor market policies......

best regards
Thomas
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 09, 2017 7:08 pm

Trump responded, The Netherlands is second, on one condition: https://www.facebook.com/Avaaz/videos/1 ... 553008884/
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:36 pm

Promises to be a close election. It is custom in the Netherlands, the biggest party in the elections will get the prime ministers post. VVD and PVV are falling in the polls and CDA and GroenLinks and to lesser extend D66 are picking up seats in the polls. They are now within striking distance of each other. So only a few days before the polls.
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Sun Mar 12, 2017 5:00 pm

I wonder how this Turkish thing is going to play out in the elections. In general, they seems to be behind the response of Mark Rutte - except Denk whom haven't given a statement yet - but you can see some accent difference in this. CDA seems to be the most outspoken and wants the association between the EU and Turkey to be dissolved.
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Aesma
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Re: Dutch elections

Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:28 pm

The far right must be in a pickle, on the one hand Erdogan is exactly the kind of leader they like and aspire to imitate, on the other hand he's an Islamist !
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petertenthije
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Re: Dutch elections

Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:37 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I wonder how this Turkish thing is going to play out in the elections. In general, they seems to be behind the response of Mark Rutte - except Denk whom haven't given a statement yet - but you can see some accent difference in this. CDA seems to be the most outspoken and wants the association between the EU and Turkey to be dissolved.

The whole response of banning the Turkish ministers is politically motivated.

At first Rutte said it was neither possible nor necessary. But then the entire opposition started complaining that Rutte was being weak, no doubt politically motivated as well with the elections just a few days ahead of us. The right felt that Rutte was bowing down to "the foreigners" while the left was complaining that Rutte was bowing down to a wannebe far-right dictator. And to be fair, both sides of the opposition got a point here. Anyway, it was only after the political backlash that Rutte told Turkish officials to bugger off.

Besides, while not giving Turkey Force 1 landing rights might make a symbolic difference, it makes no practical difference. It can just as easily land anywhere just acoss the border and take a car into the Netherlands. Which, of course, is exactly what happened when minister Kaya visited Rotterdam.

In the end the only person that got what he wanted is Erdogan. He can now complain to his electoral base how badly he is being treated by Europe, and they are loving it.
Attamottamotta!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:37 pm

The day is here, let's see what the results will be,
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petertenthije
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:17 pm

The election is over. The counting will now start and take well into the night.

The NOS did an exitpoll. The VVD is projected to be the main winner, though they did loose seats. The biggest looser by far is the PvdA.

2017 ... 2012 ... party
31 ........ 41 ...... VVD
9 .......... 38 ..... PvdA
19 ......... 15 ..... PVV
14 ......... 15 ..... SP
19 ......... 13 ...... CDA
19 ......... 12 ....... D66
6 ........... 5 ....... ChristenUnie
16 ......... 4 ........ GroenLinks
3 ........... 3 ........ SGP
5 ........... 2 ........ PvdD
4 ........... 2 ........ 50Plus
0 ........... 0 ........ piratenpartij
3 ........... 0 ........ Denk
0 ........... 0 ........ VNL
2 ........... 0 ........ Forum voor democratie
0 ........... 0 ........ Geenpeil

It is very interesting to note that there are 6 parties with 14+ seats. That will make forming a coalition very hard. I think we'll end up with a 4-way coalition.

Early indications point to a 81% voter turnout.

http://nos.nl/artikel/2163343-exitpoll- ... artij.html
Attamottamotta!
 
Scorpio
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:53 pm

petertenthije wrote:
The election is over. The counting will now start and take well into the night.

The NOS did an exitpoll. The VVD is projected to be the main winner, though they did loose seats. The biggest looser by far is the PvdA.

2017 ... 2012 ... party
31 ........ 41 ...... VVD
9 .......... 38 ..... PvdA
19 ......... 15 ..... PVV
14 ......... 15 ..... SP
19 ......... 13 ...... CDA
19 ......... 12 ....... D66
6 ........... 5 ....... ChristenUnie
16 ......... 4 ........ GroenLinks
3 ........... 3 ........ SGP
5 ........... 2 ........ PvdD
4 ........... 2 ........ 50Plus
0 ........... 0 ........ piratenpartij
3 ........... 0 ........ Denk
0 ........... 0 ........ VNL
2 ........... 0 ........ Forum voor democratie
0 ........... 0 ........ Geenpeil

It is very interesting to note that there are 6 parties with 14+ seats. That will make forming a coalition very hard. I think we'll end up with a 4-way coalition.

Early indications point to a 81% voter turnout.

http://nos.nl/artikel/2163343-exitpoll- ... artij.html

If this exit poll is correct, it means Wilders' ultra right-wing PVV isn't doing nearly as well as feared / hoped / expected. Back in January they were still polling at over 40 seats, now it looks like they might end up with less than half of that. Still more than in 2012, but not spectacularly more. Even in the last polls before voting day they were at 23 - 24 seats. Could the very high voter turnout have something to do with it?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:40 pm

Scorpio wrote:
If this exit poll is correct, it means Wilders' ultra right-wing PVV isn't doing nearly as well as feared / hoped / expected. Back in January they were still polling at over 40 seats, now it looks like they might end up with less than half of that. Still more than in 2012, but not spectacularly more. Even in the last polls before voting day they were at 23 - 24 seats. Could the very high voter turnout have something to do with it?


Don't think so. A high turnout should be in favor of populist parties, like the PVV. In The Netherlands, Dutch people tend to favor more realistic parties in the end.
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:41 pm

Most likely coalition: VVD | CDA | D66 | GroenLinks --> Rutte will remain Prime Minister.
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Jalap
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Re: Dutch elections

Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:50 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Don't think so. A high turnout should be in favor of populist parties, like the PVV.

Well all day long I was hoping for a high turnout for exactly the opposite reason. Wilders' angy fanboys and girls were verly likely to go vote. That's a not a very elastical amount of people. There are far more who don't like Wilders and his ideas. I would explain the high turnout with a fear of Wilders becoming too powerfull.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:06 am

Jalap wrote:
I would explain the high turnout with a fear of Wilders becoming too powerfull.
That's what I think as well. A lot of people who would normally not bother, did show up this time. Not because they are particularly fond of any one politician, but because they want to keep Wilders out of "het torentje". It seems that recent populist victories, like Trump and Brexit, was a wake-up call to a lot of people.
Attamottamotta!
 
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pylon101
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:33 am

Wilders is two-dimensional. He is actually a liberal with a strong anti-immigration attitude.
This election cycle in the Netherlands has exposed weakness of such simplified approach.

We are witnessing an existential struggle. However "existence" platform is supposed to include much more:
- national economy;
- interests of the nation;
- definition of the national interest, etc.

There were interesting results: voting in Rotterdam, emergence of Forum voor Democratie (a much more sophisticated entity, in my view).
And yes. Rutte's stunt with "hard" police action against Turks and Turkey was brilliantly played out.

You guys were praised by Merkel. Who called you "Neds". I think we may keep your previous identification only in legends.
The Flying Hollander is gone by the wind.
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BawliBooch
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:38 am

Not too worried about the Dutch. Have a gut feeling they will do the right thing.

Most worried about France now! The debates I hear among French expats here in India have left me worried about the extent to which polarisation is happening.
L' Esprit de Mai 68
 
tommy1808
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:11 am

pylon101 wrote:
You guys were praised by Merkel. Who called you "Neds". I think we may keep your previous identification only in legends..


Since that would be highly unusual for a German to say that, as it would basically be pronounced as "nett", which means nice, friendly and such, i would like to see a source for that. Either she never said that, or she made a wordplay you simply didn't get.
I can't even think of a colloquial term that could be shortend into neds. Usually we call them consistantly wrong "Holländer".

But good to see that the Trollfactory already got instructions how to spin this mess.

Best regards
Thomas
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:47 am

pylon101 wrote:
Wilders is two-dimensional. He is actually a liberal with a strong anti-immigration attitude.
This election cycle in the Netherlands has exposed weakness of such simplified approach.

We are witnessing an existential struggle. However "existence" platform is supposed to include much more:
- national economy;
- interests of the nation;
- definition of the national interest, etc.

There were interesting results: voting in Rotterdam, emergence of Forum voor Democratie (a much more sophisticated entity, in my view).
And yes. Rutte's stunt with "hard" police action against Turks and Turkey was brilliantly played out.

You guys were praised by Merkel. Who called you "Neds". I think we may keep your previous identification only in legends.
The Flying Hollander is gone by the wind.


Haha, so how is it that you have become such an expert of Dutch politics overnight :D

So why do you find the Rotterdam results interesting, and off course you can include the social demographic into that, the ethnic demographic, the recent unrest and how this played out within the Rotterdam politics in the recent weeks and off course all in the historical context.

Forum voor Democratie so how is it more sophisticated and in what? And to whom?

Rutte's stunt? So you think he arranged it like this?

It would be so interesting if you share your views.
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Aesma
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:42 am

Marine Le Pen congratulated Wilders for his progression.

I wonder why, as his strategy is completely opposite to hers. He doesn't even try to have a coherent program, while she does everything to appear like a serious contender. She would never propose to close all mosques, it's so ridiculous !
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ltbewr
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:49 am

There appears to have been a slight gain by 'conservative' parties in this election in the Netherlands. Those gains are likely in parts due to economic, criminal and social issues from EC work migration, refugees and immigration from the Islamic world and former colonies. It may also reflect the more socially conservative views of some of those immigrants as well as some older citizens. We have seen some areas of life there change there, like tightening up of laws on access to marijuana and the shrinkage of the 'red light' districts in cities. In the end, most citizens rejected radical right wingers as see them as not part of their national character and too much like the Nazis that occupied them during WWII. That 81% participated in the elections is a sign of much healthier country than the USA with barely 50% of eligible voters in the last election voting.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:58 am

L' Esprit de Mai 68
 
Olddog
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:14 am

That domino resisted. If France rejects Le pen too, it will be some years before the anti Eu crowd has an other chance to break EU.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:44 am

There are signs the political insanity, as impersonated by Trump, Farage and Wilders, is not gaining any serious traction on the European continent. The outcome of the French and German elections will tell us more, but one is hopeful the far-right fear mongers have had their day this side of the water.
From receips and radials over straight pipes to big fans - been there, done that, got the hearing defects to prove
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:00 am

B777LRF wrote:
There are signs the political insanity, as impersonated by Trump, Farage and Wilders, is not gaining any serious traction on the European continent. The outcome of the French and German elections will tell us more, but one is hopeful the far-right fear mongers have had their day this side of the water.


Hopefully yes, and now lets build on an EU that works for all social classes, not just the upper ones. But let us not forget about Denmark, the Dansk Folkeparti, DF, still provide support to the Danish government, without being in the coalition.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Redd
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:06 pm

B777LRF wrote:
There are signs the political insanity, as impersonated by Trump, Farage and Wilders, is not gaining any serious traction on the European continent. The outcome of the French and German elections will tell us more, but one is hopeful the far-right fear mongers have had their day this side of the water.



Hopefully you're right, but we still have Poland which is currently being ruled by insanity at the moment, there is no strong opposition even close to having been formed at the moment that can challenge them at the next election. Even though they only got 33% of the vote and rule by majority. Trump, Farage and Wilders are no where near the level of crazy Kaczynski is.
 
LAH1
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:48 pm

I don't think Farage needs to be inserted into so may posts here. He really isn't important at all in UK politics any more. He's hardly a Wilders equivalent let alone Trump.
 
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:19 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Hopefully yes, and now lets build on an EU that works for all social classes, not just the upper ones.


The thing is, people don't seem to be divided only by class but also things like religion and ethnicity, politics was much easier when European societies were more homogeneous. Social democracy can build an EU that works for all social classes, but how can we build Europe where both Erdogan supporting Islamists and liberal atheists feel at home?
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
vfw614
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Re: Dutch elections

Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:36 pm

The most interesting fact about the Dutch elections that sort of got overlooked is that despite Wilders coming in second, he got merely 13 per cent of the votes.
 
Olddog
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Re: Dutch elections

Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:45 am

Yes and that despite Erdogan trying to help him as much as he could with that "meeting".
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Dutch elections

Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:47 pm

Still waiting to hear an English speaker pronounce "Geert" correctly. :-P

But happy (in a droll sorta way) to see so many USAmericans paying attention to a foreign election, compared to what I'm used to seeing.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil

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