markman
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:13 am

"While Le Pen is forecast to come out on top in the first round, expectations still hold that centrists will flock to her second-round opponent" says The Guardian... so this sounds like Trump again!
 
Olddog
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:41 am

Before telling to french who the next president wil/should be, you should understand our electoral system. If the US had the same system, H Clinton should have been elected easily.

In France anything is possible of course but I don't see how le pen could get more than 50% of the popular vote.

When you hear about France try to not get your only information from sources that have a huge interest in seeing EU fails....
 
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pvjin
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:42 pm

B777LRF wrote:
I'll leave out Alexander (who was gay, will that change your opinion?)


Nah, I'm okay with gay people.

B777LRF wrote:
I'm sorry, but 'making the trains run on time' will never be a valid reason for running a horrific dictatorship.


For me it is. You can live happily in a well run dictatorship as long as you don't criticize the dictator. You can't live happily in a poorly run democracy if the economy sucks so much you have no opportunities.

B777LRF wrote:
As for Castro, whilst the original idea of toppling the corrupt Batista regime and tossing out the mafia was noble, he soon descended into the habits of every other dicator: Suppression, persecution, torture, murder and rapid decline of living standards for the average citizen.


Living standards of average Cuban were so low that they actually improved a lot through investments in healthcare and education. Only the rich elite saw such a rapid decline, but most of them moved to the US anyway.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:09 pm

pvjin wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
I'll leave out Alexander (who was gay, will that change your opinion?)


Nah, I'm okay with gay people..


unless they happen to be refugees fearing for their lives.

best regards
Thomas
This signature is a safe space for Trump supporters....
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:34 pm

markman wrote:
"While Le Pen is forecast to come out on top in the first round, expectations still hold that centrists will flock to her second-round opponent" says The Guardian... so this sounds like Trump again!


In France this has already happened once, in 2002. The right-wing candidate (and incumbent) won with a banana republic score, 82%, against Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Senior citizens in particular are very wary of the Front National, too against the system. They rely on the system, if the FN crashes the economy, they could lose their pensions. They're the most likely people to own property and money, that would also be at risk.

Disenfranchised young people who have nothing to lose vote increasingly for the FN, but young people don't vote much. For senior citizens, it's the opposite, they vote en masse, and avoid the FN.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
apodino
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:55 pm

One interesting thing that no one is talking about. If Marine Le Pen somehow wins the election, then almost all of the major powers in Europe (Germany, France, and the UK) would all be headed by Women. The fact that they can do this rather quietly with no one making a big deal about it, and the fact that Hillary would have been a big deal in this country if she was elected is really sad. I don't think Hillary was the right lady to lead this country, but I hope we do elect a Woman president, even though two Woman VPs have been rejected by voters so far.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:32 am

apodino wrote:
If Marine Le Pen somehow wins the election, then almost all of the major powers in Europe (Germany, France, and the UK) would all be headed by Women.

Huh, I see that you count on May and Merkel both lasting several months more. You could be right.

But I wouldn't gamble all my money on that.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:01 am

prebennorholm wrote:
Huh, I see that you count on May and Merkel both lasting several months more. You could be right.

But I wouldn't gamble all my money on that.


While i am not sure about May, Merkel will be almost definitely in office until after the next election in September. She may even get reelected, but since she will be running against a fairly socialist social-democratic candidate, she may lose as well. But either way, both agree on refugee policies and the European Union.

best regards
Thomas
This signature is a safe space for Trump supporters....
 
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pvjin
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:34 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
unless they happen to be refugees fearing for their lives.

best regards
Thomas


I'm okay with gay refugees as they are most unlikely to be radical Islamists, as in Islam homosexual behaviour is punishable by death.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
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pylon101
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:32 pm

I don't know about reliability of polls in France.
Here in States, they all were rugged. They gave Clinton 5-10% lead until the very last days before November, 8th.
Then they switched to 2-5%. About 5 days prior to the election day.
And they all have failed spectacularly.
When I was following that night, county-by-county results in the toss-up states, it was like a miracle for the most normal people and the complete nightmare for libs. So funny: CNN team disappeared; just three non-anchor losers were mumbling something.
So, Aesma, what do you think about your polls?
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:34 am

They have been a bit hit and miss, but when something dramatic happened, they saw it, they just couldn't give numbers.

For example the right-wing primary, they saw that François Fillon was gaining a lot of traction in the last few days before the first round, but couldn't say if he would be first, second or third. He ended up first. A few months before he polled at 2%.

Same thing happened in the left-wing primary, with Benoît Hamon, the eventual winner.

I think polls are accurate, but a lot of things can happen until the election. Usually in February the numbers are pretty close to what ends up happening in April, but this time, nobody would bet on it. However, the numbers still say something. For example François Fillon took a dive, and it's easy to find former supporters of him that are disgusted and say they won't vote for him.

After the first round, there are two weeks of campaign for the two finalists. I think they will count more than usual, and what the losers will tell will matter. For example if I take the last IFOP rolling poll :

February 13 2017 :

- Marine LE PEN : 26%
- Emmanuel MACRON : 19,5%
- François FILLON : 18%
- Benoît HAMON : 14,5%
- Jean-Luc MELENCHON : 11,5%
- François BAYROU : 5,5%
- Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN : 2,5%
- Yannick JADOT : 1,5%
- Nathalie ARTHAUD : 0,5%
- Philippe POUTOU : 0,5%
- Jacques CHEMINADE : 0%

Second round Le Pen vs Macron : will Fillon tell his supporters to vote for Macron ? (he's not going to support Le Pen for sure). Same for Hamon and Mélenchon. Bayrou, I doubt he will be a candidate, and he's in the same electoral spot as Macron, Dupont-Aignan will support Le Pen, Jadot will probably not be candidate and merge with Hamon, Arthaud and Poutou are almost irrelevant, and Cheminade totally irrelevant.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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fallap
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:49 am

pvjin wrote:

For me it is. You can live happily in a well run dictatorship as long as you don't criticize the dictator. You can't live happily in a poorly run democracy if the economy sucks so much you have no opportunities.



The theory of adaptive preferences.

Like the slave, contended with his life as a slave, has adapted to his life as a slave by claiming he does not want freedom. And with no way to ever live any other way - thus declares that he doesn't want to live as a free man, since a free life is probably bad.

-----

But I get your drift, it's not black/white and some nations, sadly, appear to (in the light of history) have been better run during autocratic regimes, compared to a flimsy corrupt democracy.
Grease monkey buried head to toe inside an F-16M
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Mar 19, 2017 5:43 pm

The problem with a dictatorship is that everything is arbitrary. pvjin says that you can live fine as long as you don't criticize the dictator, but that's not true at all. The only ones who live fine are the dictator's friends and family. And even they can end up shot dead in a back alley if they displease him.

Can you trust the justice system in a dictatorship ? No, so taking any risk like starting a business is much more risky. If someone with some power wants to screw you, you have no recourse. If someone with some power wants to rape or kill you/your wife/your daughter, tough luck, you're never gonna get justice.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Mar 19, 2017 5:48 pm

To go back to the subject, since last month Marine Le Pen has stagnated in the polls, meanwhile Emmanuel Macron has shot up, to the point of passing her in some of them. Both around 26-27% of the vote.

Barring any major event, which could certainly happen, I'm pretty confident we have the second round.

Polls for that second round give a healthy 60-40 advantage to Macron, but I don't trust them at all. Nicolas Sarkozy was a very divisive president, hated by millions, still to this day, and he was predicted a 60-40 loss too. In the end he lost by only 3 points : 51.6-48.4.

Interest in the campaign is diminishing, record low participation is predicted (still more than 70%, though), this makes the result very unpredictable.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Redd
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:00 pm

pvjin wrote:
zkojq wrote:
This is why the runoff round of voting is so important; its basically an insurance policy against nutjobs winning the presidency. Times like the present are when we need a strong leader, like Chirac. He absolutely crushed Le Pen's father in the runoff round of voting. Those were the days. :cloudnine:


Nutjobs tend to make great leaders because they set goals high and have unique ideas.



Yeah..... It's working wonders in Poland.......
 
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pvjin
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:23 pm

Redd wrote:
Yeah..... It's working wonders in Poland.......


It is, Poland seems to be on the right path.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:10 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Much like any time you see a shift in public thinking from right to left or left to right you always get the crazies. Even though Europe is seeing a shift back to the right Le Pen is pretty nuts. I doubt she will win.


People thought the same about Trump. No way he can win! Or so they said!

And now look where we are.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:36 am

BawliBooch wrote:
People thought the same about Trump. No way he can win! Or so they said!

And now look where we are.


Different election system makes the same outcome unlikely.

best regards
Thomas
This signature is a safe space for Trump supporters....
 
Olddog
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:51 am

Yes, our electoral system makes that Le pen will prolly end the first turn with around 28-30 %, and the other votes dispatched on the 10 candidates.
But the second run will probably be Le pen VS one candidate (whoever he is) and most of the votes should go for that one.
And we don't have an electoral college to steal the victory from the popular vote.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:24 am

It's a good thing Macron is a great candidate.

In 2011-2012 François Hollande was good, and during the debate before the runoff he really killed it, but he was a very established politician and people also knew him before that campaign, the good and the bad. His campaign performance was rather a surprise, and good enough to win in the end.

He made a good choice by not seeking reelection, if not this campaign would have been an atomic devastation instead of the bloodbath it is.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:35 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Different election system makes the same outcome unlikely.

best regards
Thomas


Lets hope Thomas you are right!

Liberals in India & America made the mistake before of believing that it would never happen. The Dutch elections show a ray of hope. Lets hope France doesnt fall for 'Le Pen!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:22 am

BawliBooch wrote:
The Dutch elections show a ray of hope. Lets hope France doesnt fall for 'Le Pen!


Well, the German AfD also dropped below 10% (from a peak over 20%). The world is looking at Trump and thinks "Fuck no".

bestregards
Thomas
This signature is a safe space for Trump supporters....
 
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zkojq
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:14 pm

I just realised that if Marine wins, she's going to revoke the dual citizenship of citizens such as myself. Guess I'm now personally invested in her losing.
First to fly the 787-9 (ZK-NZE, NZ103, 2014-10-09)
 
Redd
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:59 pm

pvjin wrote:
Redd wrote:
Yeah..... It's working wonders in Poland.......


It is, Poland seems to be on the right path.


The right path towards destruction and undoing the progress of the past 9 years. If you mean otherwise you're uninformed or just not too bright.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:31 pm

Last night was the first (ever) presidential debate before the first round, so with more than 2 candidates. The first 5 ones in the polls were invited on TV channel TF1.

It was very long at 3h30, I've watched about half of it. The most often cited "winner" was Mélenchon, but at the same time most people aren't ready to vote for him anyways, they just recognize his rhetoric mastery, learned when he was a young trotskyist.

Latest poll :

Image
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